Cold Spell Discussion [Snow showers hitting east from 4pm] ( New Years Eve 2009 )

ninebeanrows

Please continue here with chat with regard to the present cold spell.

Rain/Sleet/Snow is now being replaced by much drier colder air.

It should dry up through today with snow showers peppering the east through the afternoon and evening with small accumulations likely in places.

Turning colder as the day progresses with moderate Northeasterly winds.

New Years will be greeted by Snow Flurries in the Dublin while temperatures dip to as low as -6c inland.

Cheers folks.

The Sparrow

So what are the chances of any snow accumulation in Dublin? 20-30% or more if you were to give a guess?

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Looking at the NE radar loop , the precip is shrinking as it moves mostly west and a little south.
No dp drop here and it's currently dry.
Radar says precip is a few miles north of here.

Temps and dew points are dropping like a stone directly behind it. The M2 buoy, according to the GFS, will be sub zero by 3AM. There is no doubt about it that the showers will be snow tomorrow as the higher res output has the 850 temps at -8 or -9 in the Irish Sea and universal sub zero dews. This precip is dieing anyway. You won't get much from it. TBH I want it gone completely by morning so the convection can get going on the Irish Sea. ATM it looks like late afternoon on and the snow showers could last throughout tomorrow night and into Friday aswell. Don't think much if anything will settle here but you have a better chance in your location.

Our man in Havana

Any chance of snow showers in the midlands?

pistolpetes11

Was hoping that I mite get some thing from this , as DP has gone to 0.2 but just noticed temp is 3.3c ,

I think I will head to bed .

You can easily get snow at 3c with a dp of 0c or below.
The fact it didn't happen last sunday was just a flukey mix of uppers being too warm and under cutting lower warm air.
None of that tonight the trend is the opposite actually.
Anyhow
pit time

Trogdor

jenzz wrote: »

deadly deadly :D but me flares got saturated :mad::mad:

Haha that's ok just make jungle noises, i'll find ye:p

SpitfireIV

Deleted User wrote: »

You can easily get snow at 3c with a dp of 0c or below.
The fact it didn't happen last sunday was just a flukey mix of uppers being too warm and under cutting lower warm air.
None of that tonight the trend is the opposite actually.
Anyhow
pit time

I had pure rain on Christmas day with an air temp of -2c and a DP of -2.3c......from now on I'll only believe it can snow when I actually see the flakes falling! :P

pistolpetes11

Deleted User wrote: »

You can easily get snow at 3c with a dp of 0c or below.
The fact it didn't happen last sunday was just a flukey mix of uppers being too warm and under cutting lower warm air.
None of that tonight the trend is the opposite actually.
Anyhow
pit time

Cool ,

Temp has just rose to 3.4 but dp is at 0.0,

M2 buoy at 1.2 now ,

Nite all

cocoemma

is this the new thread the other one was closed? I'm new to this so i got a little lost!:(

SpitfireIV

Final report before hitting the hay!

Carlow town as of 1.40am

Air temp 3.9c :rolleyes:
DP 1.4c :rolleyes::rolleyes:
Blustery ENE wind gusting 15-20mph
Pressure 1000.1hPa and rising

Outlook for coming hours:

Rubbish!

G'night!

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

You can easily get snow at 3c with a dp of 0c or below.
The fact it didn't happen last sunday was just a flukey mix of uppers being too warm and under cutting lower warm air.
None of that tonight the trend is the opposite actually.
Anyhow
pit time

True. I have seen snow falling here with temps at 7c. Very much a March/April phenomena as dp's tend to be at there lowest at that time of year in a standard NW flow.

pistolpetes11

cocoemma wrote: »

is this the new thread the other one was closed? I'm new to this so i got a little lost!:(

Yep,

on really busy threads or where the situaion changes day by day you will see new threads started up to keep things tidy .

cocoemma

night all..... i'm exhausted... hopefully we'll all wake up to a fantastic whiteout tomorrow and what a way that would end the year sleep well

cocoemma

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Yep,

on really busy threads or where the situaion changes day by day you will see new threads started up to keep things tidy .

kul thanks pistol.. sleep well

Deep Easterly

Temp now at 2.7c! Interestingly though, DP is falling. Now at 0c dead bang. Drier air not far off.

JRT

I have been following this thread among many other weather event threads that have come up in the last couple of years.(Bring Snowbie back!!:))

I have to say that every time I have followed one, the worst case scenario has never come through.......where I live, thankfully.

Discussion is always good and if theres one thing we all have to talk about, its the feckin' weather.

Ive put my ass on the line many a time because of threads on here and I have learned a great deal about the weather in Ireland from it.

In saying that, one thing runs through.
Even with the most intricate knowledge of weather systems and paterns, even for localised areas, we are still decades off having the right information at the right times and at best, its a total guessing game.

I think the devotion some people have given, such as Weathercheck and WolfeIRE over the past few weeks and a certain person in the Bluestacks, is what will make the difference come 10 years time.

It wont be about what you remember from when you were a little sprog or about the terrible snow your father told ya about.
It'll be about the thread you read predicting the 10% chance correctly.

Well it will for me anyway.

Keep it up lads, we're all learning more every post.

Deep Easterly

JRT wrote: »

I have been following this thread among many other weather event threads that have come up in the last couple of years.(Bring Snowbie back!!:))

Snowbie is still around

soccerc

Wind appears to have eased here considerably and the temp has risen to 4.8 - it had been a constant 2.7 most of the day.

DP is has dropped to a negative -0.3

jenzz

wait till you see - ill go to leaba & twill snow .... Heres hoping.. Nighty night x

Trogdor

jenzz wrote: »

wait till you see - ill go to leaba & twill snow .... Heres hoping.. Nighty night x

Night night! Dewpoint's just hit -0.0C here;)

plein de force

hopefully the temps keep dropping 3.9c dp of -1 here now

lets see what tomorrow brings
stay safe those of you who have bad snow and ice

squonk

Weathercheck, would you mind mentioning in the existing thread when it rolls over into a new day's thread? I'm trying to follow on a phone in an area with a bad cell reception and the randomness of this thread shift is annoying as it's quicker to refresh my page and I can not tell for a while if no activity means no activity or. The thread being rolled. Even a link to the new thread as last post would be cool. Thanks!

Mothman

Horray Dewpoint sub zero

now where is the precipitation...........









BTW did I tell you the air temp is +5.2C
:rolleyes:

Mothman

The Irish sea has already kicked off
Light rain in air and on radar I see streamer heading into Dublin.

Way too warm though

owenc

at last the cloud has cleared to leave us dry arctic air! temps now around 1c but itll be dropping through the day to stabalise itself into the arctic air and id say -10-12c is possible tonight going by met ie!

Supercell

Two new year snow threads, this is really confusing?
In other news, I cannot wait for daybreak to go out exploring in the sneachta!

Graces7

Good morning.

Said you would reach 1000..:)

Much less lying snow here; that gale last night saw to that; will see full picture when I take the dogs out at flrst light.. But in front of the house it is wearing thinner now at last.

Just seen the Ulster forecast..

Full moon and they have snow sitting right above us; but they say the winds will ease.

Not sure why we are again in the path of snow...


Ulster
31 December 2009- updated at 06:00
Today

Bitterly cold, but brightening up with sunny spells. Scattered wintry showers, especially in coastal areas. Maximum afternoon temperatures 2 to 4 Celsius, with strong northeast winds at first, gradually easing.

Tonight

Bitterly cold and frosty, with further wintry showers of sleet and snow. Min 0 to minus 8 Celsius. Risk of ice and freezing fog.

Tomorrow

Bitterly cold tomorrow, New Year's Day, with frost, ice and any for clearing only slowly and lingering on in some sheltered places during the day. There will be some sunny spells, but wintry showers of sleet and snow also. Max. 0 to 3 C.

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

The Irish sea has already kicked off
Light rain in air and on radar I see streamer heading into Dublin.

Way too warm though

Having rubbed the sleep out of my eyes, I see that it was south of Dublin. Streamer dying off now but indicates the potential.
M2 bouy Dp needs to drop more as its above zero at moment with air temp of 6C
It'll get my interest up if I see M2 dropping to 4C with Dp -2C

Supercell

Mothman wrote: »

Having rubbed the sleep out of my eyes, I see that it was south of Dublin. Streamer dying off now but indicates the potential.
M2 bouy Dp needs to drop more as its above zero at moment with air temp of 6C
It'll get my interest up if I see M2 dropping to 4C with Dp -2C

Yep is too warm, slow thaw on outside here, I suppose we just have to give it time. Hopefully the streamers will get going before the winds swing northerly.

Mothman

Dp has a tend and its in the right direction. Below -1C
The air temperature will start to trend downwards as well

For the record
7am at M2 bouy
Air 6.1C Dp +0.2C

Mobhi1

NE Scotland which should be well inside the cold air is reporting more rain and sleet showers than snow this morning. Is this what we're getting next?:(

Much quieter on here this morning - people must be losing interest. Don't blame them - nothing seems to be happening as it should!:(

owenc

Mobhi1 wrote: »

NE Scotland which should be well inside the cold air is reporting more rain and sleet showers than snow this morning. Is this what we're getting next?:(

Much quieter on here this morning - people must be losing interest. Don't blame them - nothing seems to be happening as it should!:(

go here and you will see rain.. www.raintoday.co.uk and look up at ne scotland and you will be surprised:rolleyes:

Supercell

I'm getting on and off light hail showers here, I imagine these will get heavier as the day goes on until the wind moves northerly.

Su Campu

Supercell

Wow, quite a decent hail shower going, that little streamer is aimed directly here it seems.

Mobhi1

owenc wrote: »

go here and you will see rain.. www.raintoday.co.uk and look up at ne scotland and you will be surprised:rolleyes:

It's showing sleet for anywhere near the coast but anyway what it's showing is not necessarily what's happening - it's only what it would expect the precipitation to be based on current conditions.

Geezer1000

Zero snow here and zero sign of any. Hopefully it stays that way

Supercell

The showers here are exclusively hail at the moment, no snow or sleet or rain at all.

My front yard this morning..

same as yesterday here except the rain is showery and its warmer than at most points yesterday .
A useless zero dp.

If this is the artic floodgates open...well it's certainly brought the floods :rolleyes:

irish1967

Dare I say it. Quite a nice morning here. Feels relatively mild. Bluish sky. Hmmm. May venture out thus evening but the way this weather is going I could be snow bound or ice bound by then. We live in hope.

gally74

well i ost my internet with all the snow showers!

itsa nice dry morning down here, that north easterly really dried things up, much better day,

Mothman

I had momentary 50% covering...of hail
Temp drops to 4.7C, Dp rises to above zero
If nothing else it'll help cool down ground

Meanwhile M2 5.9C Dp+0.1C at 8am

snaps

arrived at work in connemara surrounded by all white mountains! air temp is rising, now 4.3c, warmest its been for over a week here! no sign of colder air, just warmer air. clear as well now

Mothman

4.2C Dp 0.5C

Just show that a heavy shower will drop temp quite a bit, but will raise Dp quite a bit as they aim to meet somewhere in the middle.

roryc1

Hello all,

I have a bad feeling about today, temps just not falling fast enough, it actually feels mild now

But I am really worried (For Dublin) that the winds will turn northerly before the Irish Sea has a chance to get going .
I really hope I am wrong

DOCARCH

3.2c DP -0.6c here now. Nice covering of snow to the tops only of 2 and 3 rock mountains.

moderate squally hail here

4/0

DOCARCH

roryc1 wrote: »

I have a bad feeling about today, temps just not falling fast enough, it actually feels mild now.

Dew points are (almost) everything, keep an eye on those. Dew point is -0.6c here atm - this is good (or at least a huge deal better than yesterday).

Mothman

The Irish sea is starting up with a vengeance
5mm hail
Was 5.3C Dp -1.0C
now 3.8C Dp+0.5C

We may well be in very good business later with 1-2C drop in temps during the day

roryc1

roryc1 wrote: »

Hello all,

I have a bad feeling about today, temps just not falling fast enough, it actually feels mild now

But I am really worried (For Dublin) that the winds will turn northerly before the Irish Sea has a chance to get going .
I really hope I am wrong

winds will slacken on tomorrow and veer n or nw but are likely to veer e or ne again by monday so don't worry.
There are also indications of a possible scandi high soon which would be bingo for the east [irish sea effect snow] as the continent is cooling rapidly and theres all that lovely very minus dewpoint air.

This set up is the epitome of a watched kettle