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Will you have a bet in the Gold Cup?

  • 29-12-2009 11:53pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭


    All this talk of Kauto versus Denman is all good and well but I'm more interested to know will any of you be putting your hard earned (tongue-in-cheek) on any of the GC runners.

    I can guarantee you I will not. "A race for watchin', that is!"

    Who's you bet for the Gold Cup 23 votes

    Kauto Star
    0%
    Denman
    43%
    LizardKingmdwexfordhiscanColonel SandersredzerdrogBez32Diggy78Shanee.eire750podsieboy 10 votes
    Other
    52%
    Hawk WingJohnercornycheaterJuwwistarchilddeccy15x PyRoredorblackitz meRio 2016prettyboy81 12 votes
    None
    4%
    roverjoyce 1 vote


«1345

Comments

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 5,859 Mod ✭✭✭✭Nowso


    I think everyone will be waiting until before the Race to see what the going is like etc .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    I can't believe you can still get 6/4 on Kauto Star and 9/4 on Denman. It would be the biggest upset in racing history if one of them doesn't win. I'll go for Denman.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 178 ✭✭Rio 2016


    Other
    What A Friend without the big two for a Paul Nicholls 1-2-3.

    I don't think that we saw the best of him yesterday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Obviously everyone is going to wait until the race but Kauto isn't getting another run.

    there are a finite number of things that can happen with Denman in his next.

    a) Fall
    b) Pull up
    c) 2nd/3rd
    d) Win by nse - 6l
    e) Win by 6l - dist
    Nowso

    I think everyone will be waiting until before the Race to see what the going is like etc .

    So what would the conditions need to be like for you to have a bet then? Soft or worse for Denman?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 178 ✭✭Rio 2016


    Other
    Nulty wrote: »
    Obviously everyone is going to wait until the race but Kauto isn't getting another run.

    there are a finite number of things that can happen with Denman in his next.

    a) Fall
    b) Pull up
    c) 2nd/3rd
    d) Win by nse - 6l
    e) Win by 6l - dist



    So what would the conditions need to be like for you to have a bet then? Soft or worse for Denman?

    Good to soft if the odds permitted. I do not believe that the ground will have to be soft for him to beat KS. But I wouldn't accept anything less than 7/4 and I'd imagine that he would have to be at least 2/1 to back him.

    WAF is probabely not going to partake in the Gold Cup according to his trainer, instead waiting for Aintree or Cheltenham.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Anyone who is backing Denman at this stage - is it the 'value' that inclines the bet or actual belief he will win?

    Also the only bet I would have is that Kauto is sent off shorter than 11/10


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 178 ✭✭Rio 2016


    Other
    The belief that he will win and the belief that he will win his trial in a similar manner to Kauto last Saturday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 341 ✭✭Diggy78


    Denman
    If Kauto is anywhere near evens on the day and the ground is not heavy, actually even if the ground is heavy, I'll be having a large bet on him. Am hoping Denman wins well again next time out to make a price for Kauto. I'm not dismissing Denman completely by the way as I'll admit that he is absolute quality. Just think that Kauto is the better of two brilliant horses. Wouldn't be surprised if the 3rd is beaten a distance by the winner.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Diggy78 wrote: »
    If Kauto is anywhere near evens on the day and the ground is not heavy, actually even if the ground is heavy, I'll be having a large bet on him.

    Then you'll be burning money, if the ground is heavy it won't be bit if it is Denman will go off 4/6


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'll take the one (k.Star or Denman) with the best odds :o


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Denman
    Then you'll be burning money, if the ground is heavy it won't be bit if it is Denman will go off 4/6

    Unless Kauto doesn't run there is a zero probability of Denman starting favourite, no matter what the weather IMO


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭podsieboy


    Denman
    i cant wait to be there again this year my boss is friends with connections of denman and being in the ring when he won was one of the best experiences of my life apart of course winning the coursing derby lol

    but as a betting man id have to take kauto star i think denman wont be able to do the sectionals again and if he tries then il say he will have a heart attack best bet though imo is have a few bob on nicholls to train the first 3 home again


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Unless Kauto doesn't run there is a zero probability of Denman starting favourite, no matter what the weather IMO

    Your very much wrong here, Denman is as short as 7/4 in places already. A big performance in the Aon could see them joint Favs. For sone reason punters and layers alike ( I'm not one of them ) are still not convinced with Kauto, why else would it be soclose in the betting. Punters are fickle characters.

    If the rain does come ( again I don't think it's a necessity for denman but will inconvienience KS more, and heavy ground is unlikely at the festival) then you will see punters ditching KS.

    There is a chance that Denman will start favourite


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,761 ✭✭✭redzerdrog


    Denman
    i agree if the ground is heavy denman could go off favourite.

    if its heavy i wont be having a bet anything better and its kauto star for me


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 341 ✭✭Diggy78


    Denman
    Then you'll be burning money, if the ground is heavy it won't be bit if it is Denman will go off 4/6

    You're right about one thing, it probably wont be heavy. If it is however, why would Denman be 4/6? Is he proven on heavy going? Do people think he has more stamina than Kauto Star?

    For me these things are myths. Kauto has won more often on heavy ground than Denman has (am also considering vsft in France to be Heavy), and even the year that Denman beat a below par Kauto in the GC it was Kauto staying on best of the 2 up the hill.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 24 oreilly21


    Rio 2016 wrote: »
    What A Friend without the big two for a Paul Nicholls 1-2-3.

    I don't think that we saw the best of him yesterday.


    what a friend not going in the gold cup


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 24 oreilly21


    Diggy78 wrote: »
    You're right about one thing, it probably wont be heavy. If it is however, why would Denman be 4/6? Is he proven on heavy going? Do people think he has more stamina than Kauto Star?

    For me these things are myths. Kauto has won more often on heavy ground than Denman has (am also considering vsft in France to be Heavy), and even the year that Denman beat a below par Kauto in the GC it was Kauto staying on best of the 2 up the hill.

    i cannot see kauto being beaten whatever the ground. i am convinced that it was a freak occurence/a bit of a "giddy up" by the stable denman winning before.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 178 ✭✭Rio 2016


    Other
    oreilly21 wrote: »
    what a friend not going in the gold cup

    Probably not but the trainer has yet to completely rule it out


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Diggy78 wrote: »
    You're right about one thing, it probably wont be heavy. If it is however, why would Denman be 4/6? Is he proven on heavy going? Do people think he has more stamina than Kauto Star?

    For me these things are myths. Kauto has won more often on heavy ground than Denman has (am also considering vsft in France to be Heavy), and even the year that Denman beat a below par Kauto in the GC it was Kauto staying on best of the 2 up the hill.

    Are you serious? KS was absolutely legless crossing the line. He was lucky to hang on to second Neptune Collonges made up that much ground on him. Lets just nip this KS has more stamina thing in the bud before it takes off. He doesn't.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    corny wrote: »
    Are you serious? KS was absolutely legless crossing the line. He was lucky to hang on to second Neptune Collonges made up that much ground on him. Lets just nip this KS has more stamina thing in the bud before it takes off. He doesn't.

    What proof are you offering here? Should we just believe it cos you say it? Or maybe you believe Kauto Star ran to form that day when he was a short head clear of Neptune Collonges?

    I cant think of any other race where even the slightest hint of a question could be placed on his stamina. I dont believe Denman is neccessarily a stronger stayer.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    To answer the question, Kauto Star all day every day, and the only thing that can beat him for me is another off day like 2 years ago. I think Nicholls knows the horse better now and is only interested in 2 races each year. Funny how many people were bleating about only seeing Best Mate a few times a year and now its the norm for Kauto, Denman, and Master Minded.

    I think Kauto Star was flat that Gold Cup. He was so superior the year before and a year younger that he could have run in another couple of races before the gold cup and it wouldnt have mattered. But it may have been the busy schedule that year caught up with him. He was never travelling or jumping. I dont believe it was Denman that set up these conditions, as it was clear when Neptune Collonges, not Denman, was leading that he wasnt travelling as well as he should be. If there wasnt a horse as good as Denman in the field, he might have got away with it.

    But the idea that Denman galloped him into the ground that day to me is all sorts of wrong. Kauto Star was struggling before Denman took it up, was gaining on him until a howler at the last, and won the race on the same ground in a 3s faster time the following year. The idea that he failed for stamina is completely wrong to me. He simply was off form, and was beaten a month later by Our Vic also to hammer home this point.

    Its possible that he will have another off day in March. If he doesnt, I think he will win again in a similar manner to last year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Morgans wrote: »
    What proof are you offering here? Should we just believe it cos you say it? Or maybe you believe Kauto Star ran to form that day when he was a short head clear of Neptune Collonges?

    I cant think of any other race where even the slightest hint of a question could be placed on his stamina. I dont believe Denman is neccessarily a stronger stayer.

    I never questioned his stamina i said Denman has more.

    And how can i prove it? They've raced together twice. Both times the loser had excuses. Nothing definitive can be gained from a direct comparison.

    He was legless crossing the line in that Gold Cup, and quite clearly he was held before the mistake at the last BTW. I've never seen Denman legless, not once, or more precisely where the words 'stayed on strongly' don't immediately come to mind. There's my faint shred of evidence if you like, but now you prove Kauto Star has more stamina?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Denman
    The same was being said 2 years ago and it was soft enough but Kauto started odds on and Denman drifted. I still personally think there is absolutely no chance of Denman starting fav if both line up, just my opinion. Feel free to disagree

    I also can't believe people are still questioning Kauto's stamina, non stayers don't win 2 gold cups. I know the pace last year might not have been as fierce as the year before but Kauto sprinted away up the hill. I've already made the point on another thread that the gallop set in the King George (I know Kempton is different to Cheltenham) was as gruelling as it gets yet Kauto could sprint away and win by a distance. Some 160+ chasers were broken after a mile and a half

    Finally I really believe that anyone using Kauto's run in the 2008 Gold Cup as evidence of anything should give up, the horse clearly wasn't right that day, he never traveled or jumped and this was apparent long before stamina could have been an issue


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Its clear that Denman has the stronger frame. Its easy to take from that that he is a relentless galloper and is more suited to giving weight away. Its probably true. His gallop beats most horses but in general its because he is that talented. However, and its a big however, he doesnt race against horses as good as Kauto Star at levels every day. When Kauto Star is on form, he can travel off a strong pace, the stronger the better as proven again at the King George, and allow his natural speed and jumping rhythm to carry him into the lead. I think many Denman fans think that the pace that Denman can set will get Kauto Star out of his comfort zone and ground the speed out of him. They tend to believe that this is what happened in his Gold Cup win. I certainly dont believe that it was shown in the Gold Cup Kauto Star lost, and I dont neccessarily believe that if they turn in together to the second last that Kauto Star would be found wanting up the hill.

    Legless, we'll if we are going to judge Kauto Star on that occasion where he wasnt right, where he was never travelling or jumping, Denman could hardly raise a leg against Madison du Berlais at Kempton, and was getting the worst of the argument when taking a very tired fall at Aintree. It happens. I also thought he was treading water between the last two in the Gold Cup he won. Its clearly excusable given the effort he put in up to that point. This argument has been done before but Kauto Star was closing on Denman until the mistake at the last. He needed a huge leap to have any chance of catching Denman, Ruby went for it, and the horse tried but failed.

    The idea that Kauto Star was legless in that Gold Cup when every other time his stamina over 3m2f it has been unquestioned, winning last three years quicker on similar ground. For instance, the idea that he would stop in a hole another half mile or even another mile would have sorted him out in the King George or any other race is laughable.

    I dont think that Denman neccessarily has the greater stamina over 3m2f of Cheltenham. The greater stamina argument is the thread that Denman fans have to hold as its clear that most believe Denman wouldnt have a chance of beating Kauto Star where there is emphasis on speed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I've already made the point on another thread that the gallop set in the King George (I know Kempton is different to Cheltenham) was as gruelling as it gets yet Kauto could sprint away and win by a distance. Some 160+ chasers were broken after a mile and a half

    I particularly agree with this. Barbers Shop and Nacarat stopped as if they were shot from the second last. I dont think they properly stayed but they still had enough to hold off everyone else. Proper horses never got within a shout of the leaders because of the pace set. Kauto Star cantered through it and had more to spare. If he is in the same form in March, I can see a similar finish to last years.

    Does anyone seriously think Ruby will chose Denman?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Denman
    Morgans wrote: »
    Does anyone seriously think Ruby will chose Denman?

    Unless Kauto loses a leg no chance :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Morgans wrote: »
    Its clear that Denman has the stronger frame. Its easy to take from that that he is a relentless galloper and is more suited to giving weight away. Its probably true. His gallop beats most horses but in general its because he is that talented. However, and its a big however, he doesnt race against horses as good as Kauto Star at levels every day. When Kauto Star is on form, he can travel off a strong pace, the stronger the better as proven again at the King George, and allow his natural speed and jumping rhythm to carry him into the lead. I think many Denman fans think that the pace that Denman can set will get Kauto Star out of his comfort zone and ground the speed out of him. They tend to believe that this is what happened in his Gold Cup win. I certainly dont believe that it was shown in the Gold Cup Kauto Star lost, and I dont neccessarily believe that if they turn in together to the second last that Kauto Star would be found wanting up the hill.

    Legless, we'll if we are going to judge Kauto Star on that occasion where he wasnt right, where he was never travelling or jumping, Denman could hardly raise a leg against Madison du Berlais at Kempton, and was getting the worst of the argument when taking a very tired fall at Aintree. It happens. I also thought he was treading water between the last two in the Gold Cup he won. Its clearly excusable given the effort he put in up to that point. This argument has been done before but Kauto Star was closing on Denman until the mistake at the last. He needed a huge leap to have any chance of catching Denman, Ruby went for it, and the horse tried but failed.

    The idea that Kauto Star was legless in that Gold Cup when every other time his stamina over 3m2f it has been unquestioned, winning last three years quicker on similar ground. For instance, the idea that he would stop in a hole another half mile or even another mile would have sorted him out in the King George or any other race is laughable.

    I dont think that Denman neccessarily has the greater stamina over 3m2f of Cheltenham. The greater stamina argument is the thread that Denman fans have to hold as its clear that most believe Denman wouldnt have a chance of beating Kauto Star where there is emphasis on speed.

    Why?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Morgans, who would you back if the ground came up heavy


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    corny wrote: »
    Why?

    From years of watching him. There have been a number of occasions, usually when he has not been fully fit, where he has lacked his regular rhythm. In most occasions he was beat, but I remember one day against Monet's Garden over 2m4f (Old Roan Chase) at Aintree, where it looked for a moment as if Ruby was going to pull him up just as they turned out of the back straight, but the horses guts (I believe he has tons) got him to plug on into second. He is a horse that finds tons when pressured and is not afraid to go through the pain barrier. It was the same at Haydock when he unseated Thomas, and it was the same in Denman's Gold Cup where the only time that he looked like he had any chance of winning was between the last two, and even then it was only a miniscule chance. On his off days, he tries so hard that he gives himself a chance.

    I think Kauto Star would stay the grand national no problem, but I'd suggest that he might not have quite the frame to give weight away to good horses than Denman has. What I'll say again, is that Ive not seen anything to suggest Kauto Star would be found wanting with respect to Denman if it came to a grueling test. In fact, Denman looked to be losing the arguement when falling last year. (Thank god he got up) Whether that equates to staying longer than Denman, I dont know. Staying is a very difficult concept to define.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Morgans, who would you back if the ground came up heavy

    I think he is priced at the moment on the presumption that the ground is good/soft or soft. It is most likely to be in that ballpark at the festival.

    On proper good ground, I think he would be justifiably odds on, and Denman fans would have a ready made excuse. However, I'd still be confident on heavy ground. I'd probably be kicking myself if I had backed him ante post, as I'd hope he would be second favourite in a bog. I'd trust him to show his superiority. For me, its a question of class. If on form, he will travel with any pace that any horse sets.

    If Kauto Star stopped coming up the hill, when Denman was hard on his tail last year, I'd entertain stamina concerns, and even allowing for Denman not being at his best, Kauto didnt look like faltering for one stride. (On the same ground, the race was run three seconds quicker than the previous year.)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    The race was run completley differently both years though so the fact it was 3 sec quicker means very little imo.

    No doubt KS will travel into the race easily enough, and again no doubt he has a superior turn of foot. But what happened last year ( remember Denman was held up, at no point did he try to pressure or run the finish out of KS, he sat there to be picked off) will most certainly not happen this year. It's going to be very interesting. He won't get by him as easily this year if at all


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Yeah. I dont think Denman will lead this year. I'm pretty sure Carruthers will take them along, with Denman just behind ready to take it up when he falters. He will have to go for home at the top of the hill. May the best horse win from there.

    I dont use time that often, much prefer form, but what it does point to is the idea that Denman set such a strong pace (which was in fact set by Neptune Collonges) that it forced Kauto Star out of his comfort zone and forced him to make those mistakes. Its as if Kauto Star had never encountered such a strong pace before. Kauto Star was the highest rated 2m in chasing at one stage and has coped perfectly well with far quicker paces than that Gold Cup. I dont believe for a second that Denman ran the finish out of him two years ago - he should try this year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,261 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Other
    Personally I will be backing Denman.

    No doubt tho who ever does'nt win tho there will be an excuse
    for the horse after the race.

    The debate of who is or was better will probably continue for years after they have both retired.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    If Denman wins in March with no hard luck stories, the debate can begin, but I think Kauto with the 2 gold cup and 4 king georges trumps the Gold Cup and 2 hennesseys. Without running in handicaps, Kauto Star has the higher rating.

    If Denman wins the debate will properly rage.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Denman
    Morgans wrote: »
    If Denman wins in March with no hard luck stories, the debate can begin, but I think Kauto with the 2 gold cup and 4 king georges trumps the Gold Cup and 2 hennesseys.

    And this before you add in 2 Tingle creeks over 2 miles.

    Kauto's record is nothing short of phenomenal. Take nothing away from Denman, apart from his talent I'll always have a soft spot for the old fashioned chasing type but Kauto's record certainly trumps Denman's


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Denman
    Morgans wrote: »
    If Denman wins in March with no hard luck stories, the debate can begin, but I think Kauto with the 2 gold cup and 4 king georges trumps the Gold Cup and 2 hennesseys.

    And this before you add in 2 Tingle creeks over 2 miles.

    Kauto's record is nothing short of phenomenal. Take nothing away from Denman, apart from his talent I'll always have a soft spot for the old fashioned chasing type but Kauto's record certainly trumps Denman's


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 341 ✭✭Diggy78


    Denman
    corny wrote: »
    Are you serious? KS was absolutely legless crossing the line. He was lucky to hang on to second Neptune Collonges made up that much ground on him. Lets just nip this KS has more stamina thing in the bud before it takes off. He doesn't.

    Your argument has pretty much been dealt with by Morgans but I thought I should reply. And I'll do it in the same unconvinced, clinging to an ante post docket manner. He does.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 314 ✭✭Hawk Wing


    Other
    Denman all the way


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Diggy78 wrote: »
    Your argument has pretty much been dealt with by Morgans but I thought I should reply. And I'll do it in the same unconvinced, clinging to an ante post docket manner. He does.

    Dealt with, ha ha. Thats a good one. Just to be clear from the outset i took issue with one thing you said. I'm not interested in who you (or your saviour Morgans) thinks is the better horse or who you think will win the GC or who you're a 'fan' of or who you think will go down in history as the best horse. You said KS stayed on best of the 2 up the Cheltenham hill (and before the other fella goes mad i don't care if it represents true form, it was said). He quite clearly didn't stay on best. Don't take my opinion anyway. From the ATR site Denman: 'stayed on well' KS:'held when hit last, just held on for 2nd'. You inferred KS had more stamina based on a false assumption then so. Morgans' monologue was just opinion (i still have my own, he can't prove KS has more stamina) and nothing conclusive after that.

    Kauto Star may very well stay the Grand National trip now but i'll give you a hypothetical example to finish. Race the 2 horses flat out over 6 miles! and see who cries enough first. For me it wouldn't be Denman. Take what you will from that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    The only issue I had was you saying that we should end the debate on who has the most stamina, simply because....we'll because you said we should.

    I think it goes without saying that 99% of what is posted throughout boards is opinion. Why bother to restate that?

    As for judging stamina by racing flat out over 6 miles.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45 itz me


    Other
    corny wrote: »
    Race the 2 horses flat out over 6 miles! and see who cries enough first. For me it wouldn't be Denman. Take what you will from that.


    Truckers Tavern would have smashed em both over 6 miles:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    itz me wrote: »
    Truckers Tavern would have smashed em both over 6 miles:D

    Yeah, had there been another 2f in Denman's Gold Cup, Halcon Generlardais would have won.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Morgans wrote: »
    The only issue I had was you saying that we should end the debate on who has the most stamina, simply because....we'll because you said we should.

    I think it goes without saying that 99% of what is posted throughout boards is opinion. Why bother to restate that?

    As for judging stamina by racing flat out over 6 miles.

    I thought you asked me for 'proof' in your first post so whats all this about opinion being accepted? And ending the debate. There was no debate on this before i came in.

    I think you should read again what my first post was in reply to (its in bold). I merely highlighted the absurdity of basing an opinion on a falsehood in the first place. You invented your own arguments after that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Morgans wrote: »
    Yeah, had there been another 2f in Denman's Gold Cup, Halcon Generlardais would have won.

    So what?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    corny wrote: »
    I thought you asked me for 'proof' in your first post so whats all this about opinion being accepted? And ending the debate. There was no debate on this before i came in.

    I think you should read again what my first post was in reply to (its in bold). I merely highlighted the absurdity of basing an opinion on a falsehood in the first place. You invented your own arguments after that.

    I've read your posts again. Do we really have to define what debate and discussion boards and general forums are about? You are completely entitled to your opinion, I happen to think its incorrect. I don't accept it, and you don't have to accept mine. You said you wanted to nip the Kauto Star argument in the bud. Without any meaningful discussion on it. I asked why? Is it simply because you hold that opinion?

    Maybe using the hypothetical 6m race, you proved your point.

    I've watched the Denman gold cup race yet again. Check out RUK for free if you like. Didnt go by time as I dont have the time to do that just now. I did go by the amount of strides (generally equates to 1.5l, 5 strides clear = approx 8l length lead.)

    There is a path about 100 yards before the second last, where Denman is approx 6 strides ahead of Kauto Star (who is in fact just passing Neptune Collonges). At the second last its down to appox 4 strides, and at the last its down to approx 3 stides. Kauto Star makes his mistake and Ruby is unbalanced. He scrapes home for second, approx 4 strides behind Denman.

    So from the turn in to the line Kauto Star clearly makes up ground on Denman. Beyond doubt or argument or opinion.

    This doesnt mean diddly really as Denman had put in his effort out in the country and it won him the race. Fair play. Best horse on the day won.

    However, the idea that somehow Denman powered up the hill stronger and faster than Kauto Star is wrong.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Morgans wrote: »
    I've read your posts again. Do we really have to define what debate and discussion boards and general forums are about? You are completely entitled to your opinion, I happen to think its incorrect. I don't accept it, and you don't have to accept mine. You said you wanted to nip the Kauto Star argument in the bud. Without any meaningful discussion on it. I asked why? Is it simply because you hold that opinion?

    Maybe using the hypothetical 6m race, you proved your point.

    I've watched the Denman gold cup race yet again. Check out RUK for free if you like. Didnt go by time as I dont have the time to do that just now. I did go by the amount of strides (generally equates to 1.5l, 5 strides clear = approx 8l length lead.)

    There is a path about 100 yards before the second last, where Denman is approx 6 strides ahead of Kauto Star (who is in fact just passing Neptune Collonges). At the second last its down to appox 4 strides, and at the last its down to approx 3 stides. Kauto Star makes his mistake and Ruby is unbalanced. He scrapes home for second, approx 4 strides behind Denman.

    So from the turn in to the line Kauto Star clearly makes up ground on Denman. Beyond doubt or argument or opinion.

    This doesnt mean diddly really as Denman had put in his effort out in the country and it won him the race. Fair play. Best horse on the day won.

    However, the idea that somehow Denman powered up the hill stronger and faster than Kauto Star is wrong.

    You brought it up you answer it.

    I think you're arguing with someone else here friend. You make reference to the 'idea' of something constantly not just in this post but in every one you've made in response to this. Are these my 'ideas'? Thats why i, perhaps disparagingly, called them monologues! I never said Denman powered up the hill with KS in tow(at least not in this thread:)). I said Kauto Star didn't stay on best up the hill. But anyway by your own calculations he lost a stride to Denman up the hill so where does that leave us?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 341 ✭✭Diggy78


    Denman
    corny wrote: »
    Dealt with, ha ha. Thats a good one. Just to be clear from the outset i took issue with one thing you said. I'm not interested in who you (or your saviour Morgans) thinks is the better horse or who you think will win the GC or who you're a 'fan' of or who you think will go down in history as the best horse. You said KS stayed on best of the 2 up the Cheltenham hill (and before the other fella goes mad i don't care if it represents true form, it was said). He quite clearly didn't stay on best. Don't take my opinion anyway. From the ATR site Denman: 'stayed on well' KS:'held when hit last, just held on for 2nd'. You inferred KS had more stamina based on a false assumption then so. Morgans' monologue was just opinion (i still have my own, he can't prove KS has more stamina) and nothing conclusive after that.

    Kauto Star may very well stay the Grand National trip now but i'll give you a hypothetical example to finish. Race the 2 horses flat out over 6 miles! and see who cries enough first. For me it wouldn't be Denman. Take what you will from that.

    You're a funny man Corny. You're right, I did say that Kauto Star was staying on best of the 2 at the end of Denman's Gold Cup, and no matter what 2 line summation you want to point at from the Atr website I think I'll trust my own two eyes.

    Anyway, the whole point of this is really to decide on who will win this race over 3m 2f around Cheltenham, we wont deal in ridiculous arguments about 6 mile races (haha, and you think I used false assumptions). We'll stick with what we know about 3m 2f at Cheltenham, both horses clearly get this trip at a strong pace, I may have been wrong in saying that Kauto Star has more stamina than Denman, but there's no proof that one has more stamina than the other, absolutely not a shred. Theyve both won strongly run races over the same course and distance in the same ground.

    Anyway, just out of curiosity, what did you mean about Morgan being my saviour? Is it because I agree with his points and not yours? Is it because I didn't feel the need to repeat what he had said simply because he happened to sit down at his laptop before I did? If that's as much as it is then I think boards may not be the place for you or there'll be more saviours than a Christ lookalike convention.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    corny wrote: »
    You brought it up you answer it.

    I think you're arguing with someone else here friend. You make reference to the 'idea' of something constantly not just in this post but in every one you've made in response to this. Are these my 'ideas'? Thats why i, perhaps disparagingly, called them monologues! I never said Denman powered up the hill with KS in tow(at least not in this thread:)). I said Kauto Star didn't stay on best up the hill. But anyway by your own calculations he lost a stride to Denman up the hill so where does that leave us?

    Just as I quoted you in my first post on this when you said "Are you serious? KS was absolutely legless crossing the line. He was lucky to hang on to second Neptune Collonges made up that much ground on him. Lets just nip this KS has more stamina thing in the bud before it takes off. He doesn't."

    You think the hill begins at the final fence?

    Sure in that case its just a furlong in length. I know the bottom of the hill refers to a long way before then. Its the long uphill drag from the turn in that is the hill in most minds.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Morgans wrote: »
    Just as I quoted you in my first post on this when you said "Are you serious? KS was absolutely legless crossing the line. He was lucky to hang on to second Neptune Collonges made up that much ground on him. Lets just nip this KS has more stamina thing in the bud before it takes off. He doesn't."

    You think the hill begins at the final fence?

    Sure in that case its just a furlong in length. I know the bottom of the hill refers to a long way before then. Its the long uphill drag from the turn in that is the hill in most minds.

    'Cheltenham Hill" - an ever-upward climbing passage runners must scale from the last obstacle to the winning line Cheltenhamfestival.net.' The first webpage in google search. Strictly speaking thats the 'Cheltenham Hill' i know. Anyway take your meaning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭corny


    Other
    Diggy78 wrote: »
    You're a funny man Corny. You're right, I did say that Kauto Star was staying on best of the 2 at the end of Denman's Gold Cup, and no matter what 2 line summation you want to point at from the Atr website I think I'll trust my own two eyes.

    Anyway, the whole point of this is really to decide on who will win this race over 3m 2f around Cheltenham, we wont deal in ridiculous arguments about 6 mile races (haha, and you think I used false assumptions). We'll stick with what we know about 3m 2f at Cheltenham, both horses clearly get this trip at a strong pace, I may have been wrong in saying that Kauto Star has more stamina than Denman, but there's no proof that one has more stamina than the other, absolutely not a shred. Theyve both won strongly run races over the same course and distance in the same ground.

    Anyway, just out of curiosity, what did you mean about Morgan being my saviour? Is it because I agree with his points and not yours? Is it because I didn't feel the need to repeat what he had said simply because he happened to sit down at his laptop before I did? If that's as much as it is then I think boards may not be the place for you or there'll be more saviours than a Christ lookalike convention.

    Same thing is written on RP website if you're interested!


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