Will 2010 be the year of Irish Economic Armageddon?

DublinWriter

Personally, I think so.

Europe has officially declared itself out of recession, Euro-zone interest rates are at an all time low, which only means one thing - interest rates will go up in 2010.

The effect of increasing interest rates would be catastrophic to the Irish economy, we have record levels of personal debt in this country, many people are screwed to the hilt paying mortgage repayments and are in negative equity situations.

Add to that the increasing levels of personal taxation and the spectre of the state paying tens of billions for what might turn out to be totally worthless real-estate in the guise of NAMA.

And that's just the quantifiable economic tangibles, add in intangible factors such as consumer confidence and the prospect for 2010 does indeed look bleak.

Amhran Nua

Predictions for 2010:

• Increased unemployment at the start of the year, masked by the tens of thousands of FAS places specified in the budget, so possibly official unemployment figures will drop. This is caused by a poor shopping season just past and continued high rents.
• Deflation continuing as more and more retailers realise that people just aren't spending.
• Another mini budget in September/October.
• FF/Greens stay in power in the face of ineffectual opposition, although Cowen will be deposed.
• Climbing emigration rates (possibly the target of and reason for youth dole cuts), as young people seek greener pastures, undermining future economic growth.
• Tax receipts for the year drop beneath €30 billion.
• More cuts in taxes on alcohol to compensate the 40% of FF TDs who are publicans for their loss of earnings, which naturally won't be passed on to the consumer.
• Meanwhile in typical FF form, other taxes will be increased while TDs proclaim that pain needs to be shared, pointing to their own cuts in salary.
• Sovereign debt continues to pile up, aided and abetted by the new NAMA vehicle, which will seek to disguise the actual cost of trying to bail out the defunct banks in complex documentation. This will adversely affect the cost of Irish borrowing, compounded by the problems in Greece, leading ultimately to an Irish bond auction failure.
• Few or no union protests from the public sector even after payroll cuts and further benefit curtailments in the third quarter 2010 budget.
• GDP drops 2% to 3%.
• Property prices continue to collapse bringing them to around 40% of peak in 2006.
• Real unemployment ends up at over the half million by the end of the year.

The international picture is a bit trickier, depending on a few interlocking factors. If stimulus programmes actually work, we'll see a growth in exports from MNCs, possibly even attracting a couple of new ones, enabling Ireland to limp on for another couple of years.

If they don't catch and the international economy doesn't run under its own steam by around midsummer, expect panic from the US and large exporters like Germany as their own funds run out or start to visibly impact their own economies. We'll probably lose at least one MNC to legislative taxation changes in the US.

Complicating things further is the awe inspiring property bubble building in China as we speak:

The entire world just got finished watching the kind of havoc a real estate bubble can create as the U.S. economy went down the tubes last year. So you'd think that other countries wouldn't want to repeat the same mistakes. Yet, it appears that China might be doing just that. A dangerous real estate bubble may be forming in the growing economic power. Could its bubble lead to a similar fate?

Bloomberg has an article today detailing some of the madness. Here are a few choice excerpts:

Gloria Gu paid $483,000 for an apartment near Shanghai's financial district so her 3-year-old son could attend one of the city's best kindergartens. Six months later, a similar place in her building sold for $615,000.

Average new apartment prices in Pudong gained 57 percent this year to a record $4,061 per square meter, while overall prices for China's richest city rose 26 percent to a record $2,434, according to Shanghai Uwin, which tracks prices.

New home mortgages in the first nine months of this year totaled about $139.5 billion, quadruple the amount offered a year earlier, the central bank said.

That all sounds vaguely familiar, doesn't it? You could probably change Pudong to Miami or Las Vegas and suddenly be transported back to 2005 in the U.S. But actually, these increases might be even more irrational -- I'm pretty sure that new home mortgages didn't quite quadruple year-over-year in the states.

Now some of this is genuine growth. China is experiencing much more economic expansion than the U.S. But I don't think its nation's growth rate is so high that the kind of real estate appreciation that this article talks about is sustainable.

The government is taking some measures to try to calm things down. It recently reinstated a tax on flipping houses. But according to Bloomberg's sources, the government isn't doing nearly enough:

China's leaders won't make major policy changes because they are preoccupied with economic growth and social stability, overriding concerns that rising property prices are forming a bubble, said Clement Luk, an analyst at Centaline Property Agency Ltd. in Shanghai.


"The government is clearly in a dilemma," Luk said. "It wants to address the surging property prices and concerns on bubble-bursting, yet it dares not take drastic measures for fear of hitting the market too hard."

If that pops in 2010, and given the crash in Chinese exports vis-a-vis debt servicing by loan holders, all bets are off.

jimmycrackcorm

Good thread if it was posted 12 months ago. 2010 can only get better even if only going by the increase in january new car bookings

Count Dooku

Recovery in eurozone will mean not only rising of interest rates, but also that Ireland will not become so attractive place to work. It means that immigration will reverse to emigration. More people will leave, more properties will not find tenants next year. It will mean rents going down and more people, who bought properties for investment in 2006 and 2007 will be not able to mortgages. This year Irish banks had around 30,000 mortgages in arrears, next year this figure will double. It means that banks are dead and taxpayer will have simple choice
Nationalization at cost of about 100 Bn to cover deposits, because banks sold all good assets already
Or
Let banks go bust with all related consequences

ei.sdraob

only if the unions have their way

bamboozle

i cant see things being as bad as 2009, as the eurozone, oz and Canadian economy's we will see more people leave Ireland in search of work elsewhere, this will result in a sizeable drop in unemployment allowance costs for the state, exports will rise as demand for Irish products will increase.

i cant see much more drama occuring during 2010, no doubt its going to be a bad year as will the next 5-10 but no where near as bad as 2009.

gandalf

DublinWriter wrote: »

Europe has officially declared itself out of recession, Euro-zone interest rates are at an all time low, which only means one thing - interest rates will go up in 2010.

This is what is going to define the year. Once those rates start going up then the real pain starts. What we have seen so far is a prelude to the real mortgage difficulties that people are going to face next year.

We need to hope that growth in Europe, especially in Germany and France is slow. If that happens we have a chance, if not we are royally buggered.

thebman

I don't think anything other than slow growth is going to happen?

What are the odds of a massive economic boom in France and Germany?

Which industries do we expect to boom for them?

Valmont

I loved how the economist wrote something along the lines of this "while the euro-zone is out of recession, laggards such as Ireland and..."

I had to laugh.

View

Valmont wrote: »

I loved how the economist wrote something along the lines of this "while the euro-zone is out of recession, laggards such as Ireland and..."

I had to laugh.

Isn't Ireland technically come out of recession after the last quarter results? Or did I just mis-hear that?

population

View wrote: »

Isn't Ireland technically come out of recession after the last quarter results? Or did I just mis-hear that?

It was fudging figures. "Technically" we did. "Actually" things got worse

View

population wrote: »

It was fudging figures. "Technically" we did. "Actually" things got worse

Well, we not a laggard if we are out of recession. The UK, on the other hand, still is in recession as such it does qualify as a laggard. And, all this, despite the Economist claiming that opting out of the Euro would mean the UK's greater monetary flexibility would stand it in good stead...

FergalBoards.ie

We are not "technically" out of recession by Oirish standards, because the govt and its apparatus defines when we're in and out, and they have refused to say that.

Actually this is the case globally, it's never done on a statistical definition, although its ultra-unusual for a govt to buck a statistical definition.

2010 will be the year when there will be a big fight for the TYPE of recovery we have.

We will never have an economy again that puts 30% of effort into construction. We never should have.

2010 will be a year where we either pursue new opportunity and build a more sustainable future through things like for example, tech, energy, security, information or where we all bumble along clinging desperately to some flotsam of the property boom, hoping that we will be rescued and the hell with everyone else. If we go that route, recovery will be very painful.

I don't know which way it will go.

AARRRGH

We are just at the beginning of our recession/depression.

More people will lose their jobs resulting in higher social welfare payments and less tax revenue.
More people will default on their CC and mortgage debt.
NAMA will cause one or both of our main banks to be nationalised.
Massive public debt and bailing out the banks will eat into a large portion the government's coffers.
Incompetent government will continue to spend more than it earns.
Deluded government, public service, and the public in general will ensure we continue making bad decisions.

2010 will be remembered as the years Ireland completely ****ed itself. As Morgan Kelly predicts, Iceland will be doing better than Ireland by 2015.

Time to start learning a foreign language so I can make my escape...

DublinWriter

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Good thread if it was posted 12 months ago. 2010 can only get better even if only going by the increase in january new car bookings

That's a bit like using the rate of mortality in the Health Service to judge how effectively it's clearing bed-spaces.

New car sales are backed by personal credit. Very few people buy a new car with cash.

old boy

it is going to get worse due to
welfare payments up
tax recipts down
houses reposessed
savings eaten away
all public services failing to deliver due to lack of funding
people on welfare haveing no spending power
no buisness loans or financial support
infrasture declining and falling into ruin
nothing done to promote job creation
empty houing, warehouseing, factorys, cafes, pubs abandoned half finished white elephants
more cuts on the advice of the ecb
which means more of the above
but hopefully the senior civil servents, politicions and union leaders wages have real time wage and expenses cuts
then maybe something will happen
we are told that
welfare takes up so and so % of the budget
health takes so and so %
public service takes so and so %
i.m.o. nama will take up at least 45% of the next budget
what is left for the country will be zilch.

Amhran Nua

FergalBoards.ie wrote: »

2010 will be a year where we either pursue new opportunity and build a more sustainable future through things like for example, tech, energy, security, information or where we all bumble along clinging desperately to some flotsam of the property boom, hoping that we will be rescued and the hell with everyone else. If we go that route, recovery will be very painful.

I don't know which way it will go.

Given who is in charge of the country, is there any doubt whatsoever about which way it will go.

onq

DublinWriter wrote: »

That's a bit like using the rate of mortality in the Health Service to judge how effectively it's clearing bed-spaces.

New car sales are backed by personal credit. Very few people buy a new car with cash.

I have to disagree - most people still take out car loans to spread the financial load.

In regard to the new car registrations, IIRC MSL Balssbrodge Motors were hopeful of 50 new Merc registrations in January - I dunno if they were A's or G's.

The point is there will always be people who love recessions, because they already have some money - its that much sweeter swanning past the long dole queues in your new jammer.

Ugly people in beautiful cars...

ONQ.

onq

FergalBoards.ie wrote: »

We are not "technically" out of recession by Oirish standards, because the govt and its apparatus defines when we're in and out, and they have refused to say that.

To be fair they have watered down the possible euphoric effect of misleading figures based on Multinational earnings.

Actually this is the case globally, it's never done on a statistical definition, although its ultra-unusual for a govt to buck a statistical definition.

I think its ultra intelligent for them to do this in the light of the foreseeable effect of a false dawn.

2010 will be the year when there will be a big fight for the TYPE of recovery we have.

Totally agree - this is hugely important.

We will never have an economy again that puts 30% of effort into construction. We never should have.

"Never" is not a great word for the human condition - I think we should have managed it better, and we should have developed multi-national companies to build and supply out in China, where it seems they are still building.
Our Irish firms should have a slice of that pie regardless.
If that brings the percentage up to 30% that's fine.
Our difficulty was made worse because we had become dependant on the tax from sales of new houses including capital gains tax on sales and the rest.

2010 will be a year where we either pursue new opportunity and build a more sustainable future through things like for example, tech, energy, security, information
- <break>

I think a lot of people are mouthing buzzwords and the worst one is "sustainability". Like anything else it is wholly relative, yet people with pseudo-green credentials keep mouthing it like an absolutist mantra. Soon we'll all be in MVHR serviced houses and forgetting to change the filters regularly. It'll end in a nation of asthmatics, in tears.

<break> or where we all bumble along clinging desperately to some flotsam of the property boom, hoping that we will be rescued and the hell with everyone else. If we go that route, recovery will be very painful.

World Recession 2008 is painful, and comparisons have been drawn already to the first year of the World Depression of 1929 by articles on VOX q.v. although June 2009 figures are showing some improvement.
This blip could be the start of the recovery for those countries best positioned, or it might be the "lip" of a double-dip recession.

I don't know which way it will go.

At this stage in the proceedings, that's all anyone can say, but this time around we've learnt just how vulnerable Globalization has made us to a failure in one part of one economy.
Interlinked banking practices have "poisoned" our lending institutions, under-regulated/"light touch" oversight has allowed use of new financial instruments to spiral out of the control of their makers, while "just in time" ordering and the segmented means of production in use to day has removed the inertia of the system, meaning any cessation of credit facilities has an instant effect across all sectors, instead of taking a while to engage.

But the real cause for thsi apparent synchronicity across so many world economies both inside and outside the OECD is the interlinked and "real time" nature of banking transactions. The defining factor is the world loss of credit, following on a loss of confidence in the banking sector itself, following on an previously unthinkable failure like Lehman's and would be disasters like Bearn Stearns and AIG, Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac.

We are not the poor relations in all this BTW.

Ireland according the the recent "Love of Money" trilogy of programmes this week, showed the British the way ot do it by guaranteeing deposits. The British showed the Americans what to do, investing directing in the banks as opposed to merely buying toxic assets.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, in the face of an apparent complete misunderstanding of their untenable position by the heads of RBS in a meeting of Bank Heads is supposed to have said something like "it would be useful in dealing with a crisis like this if the people in the boardrooms new what was going on in their bank."

These boardroom idiots refer to their salaries as compensation.
Its the rest of us that need to be compensated for their incompetence.
What do these monumental dumbos actually DO to earn their ST£1,000,000 bonuses?
There were allegedly 4,000 of these mind-boggling bonus amounts paid out in IIRC 2006 or 2007.
The British partly justified this because they were all taxed at the high rate, so it was effectively the Banks' way of paying the Exchequer some more money!

LOL!

Anyway, 'nuff said.

ONQ.

Amhran Nua

onq wrote: »

"Never" is not a great word for the human condition - I think we should have managed it better, and we should have developed multi-national companies to build and supply out in China, where it seems they are still building.
Our Irish firms should have a slice of that pie regardless.
If that brings the percentage up to 30% that's fine.

And as soon as you can find an Irish builder willing to work for €12 a week and an Irish architect who will work for €150, I'm sure that market will open up promptly. Just to underline that I believe the Polish government recently contracted out major infrastructure works to a Chinese firm over all other competitors.

The construction sector is mostly finished, we have an overbuild to last half a decade and we're still building, and when it was here it was an economic black hole, with current growth being paid for by loans against future earnings, destroying future productive wealth with massive interest for non productive assets, assets which have now lost most of their value (some of which will lose all of their value).

WoollyRedHat

I think we need to focus on infrastruction the next time round. What we should have done when we had all that money, now sordidly missed. Until then we have NAMA to worry about it, a vampire which will suck the life out of our economy unless it is significantly altertered.

Until the realisation of just how bad the government truly ****ed the country up, when the full cost of bank recapitalisation/ possible nationalisation and Nama is revealed, then people might just see Fianna Fail should not be allowed at the helm of Irish politics for at least two terms. Until then it seems they are the saviours of the Irish Economy, the wizards of our finances, yet they are the very same people who have put us into the mess we find ourselves in. People need to realise that Fianna Fail have few ideas, yes they took on the Unions to an extent, but we need more re-adjustments of our finances if we are to have any chance of getting out of this recession, which will require several more budgets in the face of falling tax receipts. Fianna Fail buy time, but as for being able to rescue the economy, don't get your hopes up.

onq

Amhran Nua wrote: »

And as soon as you can find an Irish builder willing to work for €12 a week and an Irish architect who will work for €150, I'm sure that market will open up promptly.

I'm sure muppets working for €150 /week is what we need in the Dáil too.
I hear the same cry from unskilled, tradeless, non-professionals all the time.
These creatures bleat a lot about what people earn, but wouldn't know fiduciary duty or vicarious liability if it bit them on the buttocks.
Actually studying the paper is beyond them, so committing to five years of full-time study or 4 years learning a trade and then six years building up a business would be well outside their "comfort zone" which usually stretches to organizing the next pizza and a six pack - sustainably of course.

Just to underline that I believe the Polish government recently contracted out major infrastructure works to a Chinese firm over all other competitors.

And your point is?
Who did we use for the east link tunnel?
Wasn't it a Japanese company's name that was on the billboards?

The construction sector is mostly finished, we have an overbuild to last half a decade and we're still building, ...

The reason we're still building is because most of these "alleged" uninhabited, completed 200,000 houses are built in half-finished estates accessed off roundabouts, miles from population centres amenities or services. Leitrim. Limerick Junction. Wherever the last utterlyt marginally profitable site was.

...and when it was here it was an economic black hole, with current growth being paid for by loans against future earnings, destroying future productive wealth with massive interest for non productive assets, assets which have now lost most of their value (some of which will lose all of their value).

Rubbish.
Developers rountinely rolled over profits into new developments as opposed to paying tax on them, making them into a long of self-filfuled prophecy.

The ball-less wonders who never do anything in the world are constantly amazed by those who do - that never changes.
You'd be surprised that some businesses are actually doing well in this recession.

As for your anti-corruption stance - you cited China didn't you?

*Bwahahahahahahahaha*

Open your eyes.

ONQ.

onq

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I think we need to focus on infrastruction the next time round. What we should have done when we had all that money, now sordidly missed. Until then we have NAMA to worry about it, a vampire which will suck the life out of our economy unless it is significantly altertered.

Until the realisation of just how bad the government truly ****ed the country up, when the full cost of bank recapitalisation/ possible nationalisation and Nama is revealed, then people might just see Fianna Fail should not be allowed at the helm of Irish politics for at least two terms. Until then it seems they are the saviours of the Irish Economy, the wizards of our finances, yet they are the very same people who have put us into the mess we find ourselves in. People need to realise that Fianna Fail have few ideas, yes they took on the Unions to an extent, but we need more re-adjustments of our finances if we are to have any chance of getting out of this recession, which will require several more budgets in the face of falling tax receipts. Fianna Fail buy time, but as for being able to rescue the economy, don't get your hopes up.

Another post that belongs in politics.ie by the looks of it.

I'll say this once.

Not ONE political party came up with a credible alternative to the Bank Guarantee Scheme or NAMA - not one.

Yet witless people who contributed nothing meaningful to the debate refuse to get on with it and spend their time bleating about might-have-beens.

FF didn't hold guns to people's heads to make them buy property.
Greed was the motivator - getting on the bandwagon.
Some fell off - more will do so yet.
Develop ways to catch them.
Don't whinge instead.

ONQ.

Amhran Nua

onq wrote: »

I'm sure muppets working for €150 /week is what we need in the Dáil too.
I hear the same cry from unskilled, tradeless, non-professionals all the time.
These creatures bleat a lot about what people earn, but wouldn't know fiduciary duty or vicarious liability if it bit them on the buttocks.
Actually studying the paper is beyond them, so committing to five years of full-time study or 4 years learning a trade and then six years building up a business would be well outside their "comfort zone" which usually stretches to organizing the next pizza and a six pack - sustainably of course.

I'm having a hard time interpreting that, this is what I think you meant; Chinese labourers and professionals earn vastly less than their equivalently qualified Irish counterparts, and China has a vastly larger labour pool, with no need for western assistance to build out its infrastructure.

So if you could help us out here and clarify exactly how we could "get a piece of that", that'd be great.

onq wrote:

And your point is?
Who did we use for the east link tunnel?
Wasn't it a Japanese company's name that was on the billboards?

The point is that China doesn't need an Irish workforce.

onq wrote:

The reason we're still building is because most of these "alleged" uninhabited, completed 200,000 houses are built in half-finished estates accessed off roundabouts, miles population centres amenities or services. Leitrim. Limerick Junction. Wherever the last utterlyt marginally profitable site was.

No, there are plenty of them near to factories and industrial parks in Galway for example - go out to Dough Uisce or one of those estates and you'll find a dearth of half finished apartments, while many of the finished ones are still empty of course. This myth that the overbuild is all in undesireable locations is just that, a myth.

onq wrote:

Rubbish.
Developers rountinely rolled over profits into new developments as opposed to paying tax on them, making them into a long of self-filfuled prophecy.

Right, but who pays for the developments? Mortage holders, thats who. So by following the trail back to where the real wealth is ultimately created, thats where it starts, and in this case is wasted.

onq wrote:

The ball-less wonders who never do anything in the world are constantly amazed by those who do - that never changes.
You'd be surprised that some businesses are actually doing well in this recession.

So we should take the advice of our morbidly obese Taoiseach and "tighten our belts"?

onq wrote:

As for your anti-corruption stance - you cited China didn't you?

*Bwahahahahahahahaha*

Open your eyes.

Wow, this is starting to read like one of those spam emails that come in from time to time, a disconnected garble of sentences that bear just enough resemblance to an actual phrase to get past the filters.

onq wrote: »

Not ONE political party came up with a credible alternative to the Bank Guarantee Scheme or NAMA - not one.

You can say it as often as you like and it still won't be true. Not just political parties but economic commentators offered many alternatives. Still, none are so blind as those who don't wish to see and all that...

onq wrote:

FF didn't hold guns to people's heads to make them buy property.
Greed was the motivator - getting on the bandwagon.
Some fell off - more will do so yet.
Develop ways to catch them.
Don't whinge instead.

If public representatives stop representing the public and instead start to represent private business interests in their statements and legislation, who is to blame?

WoollyRedHat

Fianna Fail as a political party certainly didn't help matters in relation to the property bubble in the sense they encouraged it with the policies they pursued. Our lack of regulation shows that Fianna Fail could have curtailed negible effects of the Property bubble but clearly didn't bother.

As for the bank guarantee, didn't Fine Gael oppose the inclusion of Anglo? Anglo has been proven to be a drain on the states finances, it is another waste of taxpayers money by FF. FG's Nama may not be perfect, but FF Nama is going to proove very costly. The EU in relation to Nama said that face value should be applied when running Nama from what I can remember, not Long term value which is a fundemental flaw in NAMA at present.

mrgaa1

consumer confidence will rise over the year, a levelling out of house prices will occur 2nd quarter but with the public expenditure creating even larger problems another turbulent year ahead.

DublinWriter

onq wrote: »

I have to disagree - most people still take out car loans to spread the financial load.

Very true, but this is still borrowed money and personal debt at the end of the day.

hmmm

Redundancy fear is now considerably reduced, as is the fear of being crippled at the budget. Interest rates will rise but will affect relatively few. The world economy is improving rapidly which should feed back into Irish industry.

House prices will still keep falling which means people will not have "equity" to spend on wasteful investments.

I think 2010 is going to be an improvement for most people on 2009. Next years budget will hurt everyone, but we have reached the lowest point.

FergalBoards.ie

I just wanna clarify one thing.

When I said "sustainable" I meant in the economic sense...that is, I don't believe that 30% construction is sustainable, because it crowds out the rest of the economy leaving resources applied in a way that no other country has successfully done before.

Some green industries may be "sustainable" in the economic sense, because whether or not you believe in green politics, they are typically a reasonably successful sector of most economies.

Not all the industries I mentioned as being sustainable (in the economic sense) were green.

population

hmmm wrote: »

Redundancy fear is now considerably reduced, as is the fear of being crippled at the budget. Interest rates will rise but will affect relatively few. The world economy is improving rapidly which should feed back into Irish industry.

House prices will still keep falling which means people will not have "equity" to spend on wasteful investments.

I think 2010 is going to be an improvement for most people on 2009. Next years budget will hurt everyone, but we have reached the lowest point.

Interest rate increases will not affect "relatively few". There are tens of thousand of families hanging on by a thread and incremental increases will be the tipping point for whether they keep their homes or not. Where is the evidence that the world economy is improving "rapidly" btw? Some countries including the USA have talked up their coming out of recession without actually recording two consecutive quarters of growth which is the indicator. I think we have some bad years ahead, particularly in Ireland.

onq

DublinWriter wrote: »

Very true, but this is still borrowed money and personal debt at the end of the day.

Not necessarily - I should have said "people and companies" - in other words, corporate debt as well as personal.

We are a society that has become used ot living on credit - that I say the above should ocme as no surprise.

ONQ.

onq

Amhran Nua wrote: »

I'm having a hard time interpreting that, this is what I think you meant; Chinese labourers and professionals earn vastly less than their equivalently qualified Irish counterparts, and China has a vastly larger labour pool, with no need for western assistance to build out its infrastructure.

So if you could help us out here and clarify exactly how we could "get a piece of that", that'd be great.

Name the three factors of production in any economy.

The point is that China doesn't need an Irish workforce.

Name the three factors - Labour is only one.

No, there are plenty of them near to factories and industrial parks in Galway for example - go out to Dough Uisce or one of those estates and you'll find a dearth of half finished apartments, while many of the finished ones are still empty of course. This myth that the overbuild is all in undesireable locations is just that, a myth.

A myth, really?

*I* don't want to live in Galway or "Dough Uisce" - wherever that is!

We'll wait and see how many respondents put their hands up to wanting to move to "Dough Uisce".

*mheh*

Right, but who pays for the developments? Mortage holders, thats who. So by following the trail back to where the real wealth is ultimately created, thats where it starts, and in this case is wasted.

You really *are* missing this point aren't you?
Developers rolled over profits into new developments.
They didn't just roll the profits into building them.
They then bought units en masse to keep.
They're not "average" morgage holders.

So we should take the advice of our morbidly obese Taoiseach and "tighten our belts"?

You'll always know the political losers when they make cheap ad hominems.

Wow, this is starting to read like one of those spam emails that come in from time to time, a disconnected garble of sentences that bear just enough resemblance to an actual phrase to get past the filters.

And they're often characterised by making ad hominems against people they're arguing with instead of addressing issues raised.
Sometimes they like to pretend they don't understand the issues raised.
"What three factors of production are necessary for any economy?"
Go ahead - amaze us with your graps of economic reality.
What could Ireland contribute to China in building.

You can say it as often as you like and it still won't be true. Not just political parties but economic commentators offered many alternatives. Still, none are so blind as those who don't wish to see and all that...

None of these geniuses offered any viable alternatives.
Nama is a means of buying debt without raising external finance - a masterful move.
Guaranteeing the bank debts saw Ireland become a net inward investment location until Britain followd suit - they had only guaranteed ST£35K per account beforehand.

If public representatives stop representing the public and instead start to represent private business interests in their statements and legislation, who is to blame?

Painting this picture suggests that the people behind private business interests aren't also members of "the public".
Thus you stand revealed as an anti-capitalist, pushing some outdated socialist agenda.
Possibly appropriate in an era where the government have bailed out the Uber-capitalist flagships, the Banks.
I don't think your party will grow legs, even in this climate.
Go ahead, prove me wrong at the polls.



ONQ.

onq

FergalBoards.ie wrote: »

I just wanna clarify one thing.

When I said "sustainable" I meant in the economic sense...that is, I don't believe that 30% construction is sustainable, because it crowds out the rest of the economy leaving resources applied in a way that no other country has successfully done before.

Some green industries may be "sustainable" in the economic sense, because whether or not you believe in green politics, they are typically a reasonably successful sector of most economies.

Not all the industries I mentioned as being sustainable (in the economic sense) were green.

I take your point FergalBoards.

On issue of "sustainability" I'd like to invoke Voltaire -
"If you would converse with me, first define your terms".

So, because this concept has become central to our economic strategies, here goes:

1) Economic sustainability doesn't imply green sustainability.
2) Green sustainability doesn't imply embedded energy sustainability.
3) Embeded energy sustainability doesn't imply either of the above.

Economic sustianability basically means getting the most for your Euro.
Green sustainability - reduce, reuse, recycle, sustainable sources - can mean using energy-intensive materials but also methods and materials that may only last 60 years.
Embedded Energy sustainability would have us living back in the stone age, using oxen for power, sheeps wool for insulation and building on piles without concrete foundations.

There has been far too much discussion of sustainability without definition.

ONQ.

SkepticOne

I think 2010 will be neither a year of economic Armageddon, nor the year of recovery (at least as far as the ordinary person is concerned). I think it will be another year of difficulty. Those who think unemployment has stabilised will be disappointed, I fear.

jmayo

onq wrote: »

Another post that belongs in politics.ie by the looks of it.

I'll say this once.

Not ONE political party came up with a credible alternative to the Bank Guarantee Scheme or NAMA - not one.

Yet witless people who contributed nothing meaningful to the debate refuse to get on with it and spend their time bleating about might-have-beens.

FF didn't hold guns to people's heads to make them buy property.
Greed was the motivator - getting on the bandwagon.
Some fell off - more will do so yet.
Develop ways to catch them.
Don't whinge instead.

ONQ.

FFS your posts read like the usual dribble flaunted by ffers trying to absolve the party of the blame for the mess the public finances, economy and banking sector are in.
ff were in power and rather than take heat out of the housing market they fanned it with continuing tax incentives to build.
How long did they leave Section 23/50s grants in place ?
How long did it take them to get the report on these schemes and then remove them ?
Why didn't they start limiting the attractiveness of investment property ?

Yes people were greedy but who pushed the buttons ?
ff, together with their cosy relatives the bankers and developers, acted like the local drug pusher who wants to increase the number of addicts so that they and their cohorts can get richer by feeding the habits of the addicts.
Their cohorts included the bankers, the developers, the builders, the lawyers, the auctioneers and the ones suppling the building industry.
Everything became subservient to the construction industry and it still is when you look at NAMA and the bank guarantee.

You laud all the decisions made by the government and in true ff style rubbish discenting voices and their lack of a credible alternative.

NAMA is a millstone around the necks of this generation and indeed the next.
We gave a bank guarantee to Anglo which is going to saddle the Irish citizens with 20 plus billion of toxic assets and IN which is going to give us 8 odd billion of toxic debts.
That is not even mentioning the fact that these banks are niche players and are costing us billions in recapitalisation.
Then you float the usual ff/pro NAMA kite about how this will not cost us since it is "buying debt without raising external finance" .
No matter what way you spin it, the Irish citizen becomes responsible for other people's outlandish debts and it will cost us in borrowing some day, unless of course we recreate the property bubble by some miracle ala frank fahey's wet dreams.

BTW you appear very condescending towards Galway, a city which historically had always gotten a fair share of inward foreign investment in actual real jobs, well real at least until the multinationals left for greener pastures.
If you are afraid to venture that far West I can introduce you to an empty estate in Carlow, a town 50 odd miles at the end of a motorway to Dublin and a town which became one of the Capital's commutter towns.
So stop bulls***ing about there only being supposed empty estates in the likes of Leitrim.
Oh and using the old favourite Leitrim shows lack of imagination.
Roscommon is just as bad.

onq wrote: »

The ball-less wonders who never do anything in the world are constantly amazed by those who do - that never changes.
You'd be surprised that some businesses are actually doing well in this recession.

PS listening you talk about the doers and great balled wonders reminds me of Ulick McEvaddy lauding the supposed fine gentleman Seanie Fitz :rolleyes:
Theives, liars and the likes of Bernie Maddoff are also doers.
It doesn't mean we should respect them or want to emmulate them.

mrgaa1 wrote: »

consumer confidence will rise over the year, a levelling out of house prices will occur 2nd quarter but with the public expenditure creating even larger problems another turbulent year ahead.

Are you still looking for investment property ?

Amhran Nua

onq wrote: »

Name the three factors of production in any economy.

Name the three factors - Labour is only one.

Answer the question please - how exactly would Irish construction firms get into China. I'd would be genuinely delighted to hear your ideas on this, as it would solve rather a large problem for us.

onq wrote: »

*I* don't want to live in Galway or "Dough Uisce" - wherever that is!

I told you where it is, its a suburban area abutting some of the largest industrial parks in the west.

onq wrote: »

You really *are* missing this point aren't you?

Not nearly as much as you. At the end of the day, who is it that pays for developments? We can play "and who paid him" all week and we'll still reach the end of the line at... ordinary mortgage holders.

onq wrote: »

You'll always know the political losers when they make cheap ad hominems.
And they're often characterised by making ad hominems against people they're arguing with instead of addressing issues raised.

If I could figure out what issue you were raising I might be able to address it. You apparently suggested that Irish construction firms should go work in China, I requested a few thoughts from yourself as to how that might work, and you responded by pointing out that we have an anti corruption platform in Amhrán Nua, so apparently we, er, shouldn't even be talking about China or something?

These join the dots conversations are fun and all, but clarify what you are saying if you expect a serious response.

onq wrote: »

What could Ireland contribute to China in building.

It was your idea, you tell us!

onq wrote: »

None of these geniuses offered any viable alternatives.

According to who?

onq wrote: »

Nama is a means of buying debt without raising external finance - a masterful move.

So having a Nobel Prize Winning Economist, Stiglitz, call NAMA "criminal" didn't make so much as a dent in your breezy confidence?

onq wrote: »

Guaranteeing the bank debts saw Ireland become a net inward investment location until Britain followd suit - they had only guaranteed ST£35K per account beforehand.

Guaranteeing deposits was a good idea, guaranteeing all debt and interbank loans was extremely foolish.

onq wrote: »

Thus you stand revealed as an anti-capitalist, pushing some outdated socialist agenda.

Do us a favour and look up the ICIM in our policies pages, then come back and tell us about socialism.

onq wrote: »

I don't think your party will grow legs, even in this climate.
Go ahead, prove me wrong at the polls.

ionapaul

jmayo wrote: »

If you are afraid to venture that far West I can introduce you to an empty estate in Carlow, a town 50 odd miles at the end of a motorway to Dublin and a town which became one of the Capital's commutter towns.
So stop bulls***ing about there only being supposed empty estates in the likes of Leitrim.
Oh and using the old favourite Leitrim shows lack of imagination.
Roscommon is just as bad.

No-one needs to leave our capital to find properties that have been completed for years and are unsold...in fact, there is no need to leave the leafy suburbs of Dublin's southside! I live in an award-winning development in Dublin 6 with unsold units, while a few miles down the roads in Dundrum there are hundreds of unsold apartments. In Rathfarnham there are unsold new houses if anyone wants to see them...

onq

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Answer the question please - how exactly would Irish construction firms get into China. I'd would be genuinely delighted to hear your ideas on this, as it would solve rather a large problem for us.

You didn't ask a question until after I asked you what the factors of production are.
I'm waiting for you to shift your politically motivated butt and google them up to at least try to save face in a thread commenting on the economy.

I told you where it is, its a suburban area abutting some of the largest industrial parks in the west.

"Some of"?
Well how many of the "largest industrial parks in the west" does this "suburban area" abut?
From that discription is sounds like something the size of Adamstown.
And - of course - you still haven't said exactly where it is, have you?
Is that another dodge, or is it because you just don't know?

Not nearly as much as you. At the end of the day, who is it that pays for developments? We can play "and who paid him" all week and we'll still reach the end of the line at... ordinary mortgage holders.

What's this nonsense about "ordinary mortgage holders"?
Let's look at those who bought houses.
There are people who took a gamble and invested.
There are people who took a gamble and bought to live in them.
Buying property is always a gamble, and anyone who calculated their ability to pay based on 3% inflation rates is in for a terrible shock when the economy finally takes off again.
Ican remember back in 1992 when the Commercial Rate hit 22% and the lending rate varied from 14-16%.
It doesn't matter what the rate is, so long as you can pay the mortgage.
It doesn't matter what the valuation is, so long as you can pay the mortgage.
Pretending to support the "ordinary mortgage holders" is just political posturing on your part.

If I could figure out what issue you were raising I might be able to address it. You apparently suggested that Irish construction firms should go work in China, I requested a few thoughts from yourself as to how that might work, and you responded by pointing out that we have an anti corruption platform in Amhrán Nua, so apparently we, er, shouldn't even be talking about China or something?

Brilliant - finally you understand my point - it wasn't that hard, was it?
We have some of the best building firms in the world in Ireland - we would bring our expertise to the table.
As long as they took their tax here like other multinationals do, there is no reason why building firms could not contribute 30% to the Irish economy for years to come.

As for China and corruption, I'll leave your socialist agenda to wipe its own behind on that one - I'm done holding your hand on this trip through the forest of political awareness.

These join the dots conversations are fun and all, but clarify what you are saying if you expect a serious response.

You've already given a response - you just didn't understand what you'd said - hardly a compforting performance from someone looking ot represent people politically.
<snip tedium>

So having a Nobel Prize Winning Economist, Stiglitz, call NAMA "criminal" didn't make so much as a dent in your breezy confidence?

Whinging because someone else thought of it cuts no ice.
Besides, you'd be a little suspicious of any economist winning a Nobel prize wouldn't you - given the state the world is in?
Nearly as embarrassing as seeing an American President winning one while still sending in robot planes to bomb the Pakistanis...

Guaranteeing deposits was a good idea, guaranteeing all debt and interbank loans was extremely foolish.

Fool - its the lack of inter bank lending that caused the credit facilities to dry up in the first place - banks lost faith in banks, not in customers.

Do us a favour and look up the ICIM in our policies pages, then come back and tell us about socialism.

No I'll let you present your tripe here so people can laugh at it.

ONQ.

Amhran Nua

onq wrote: »

Bitching because someone else thought of it before he could make capital out of it I imagine.

And we're done here.

onq

Amhran Nua wrote: »

And we're done here.

I edited that to reflect some more parliamentary language, but its nice to see you ran away at that point smirking.

ONQ.

Amhran Nua

onq wrote: »

I edited that to reflect some more parliamentary language

I think you missed a bit.

sceptre

Kindly read the forum charter and remember what politeness is people. Especially the politeness part, which should be the easiest part but for some of you doesn't appear to be. Personalising the argument isn't what the forum is for and isn't permitted by the charter.

/mod

Heroditas

ionapaul wrote: »

In Rathfarnham there are unsold new houses if anyone wants to see them...

Are they the four-bedroom detached houses?
Some great bargains there apparently!

ionapaul

Heroditas wrote: »

Are they the four-bedroom detached houses?
Some great bargains there apparently!

Lol, yeah, some 3 and 4 bedroom houses - such great bargains that they've been unsold for years! I'd be more than happy to buy some of these unsold units across the southside, just not at the prices advertised!

onq

jmayo wrote: »

FFS your posts read like the usual dribble flaunted by ffers trying to absolve the party of the blame for the mess the public finances, economy and banking sector are in.

Not at all, I'm just sick and tired of whingers who gambled and lost blaming it on the FF party or anyone else for that matter.

ff were in power and rather than take heat out of the housing market they fanned it with continuing tax incentives to build.
How long did they leave Section 23/50s grants in place ?
How long did it take them to get the report on these schemes and then remove them ?
Why didn't they start limiting the attractiveness of investment property ?

Probably because there were whingers who supported them who wanted to keep it going to make money on their gambled investments.

Yes people were greedy but who pushed the buttons ?

Nonsense question, unless you believe all ladults lack critical faculties.
I lived through the celtic tiger here and no-one forced me to buy anything.

ff, together with their cosy relatives the bankers and developers, acted like the local drug pusher who wants to increase the number of addicts so that they and their cohorts can get richer by feeding the habits of the addicts.

Oho, so we're all little addicts now are we?
Poor little people with no power to say no who blame others for their misfortune.
Pul-lease!

Their cohorts included the bankers, the developers, the builders, the lawyers, the auctioneers and the ones suppling the building industry.

The same cohorts whom Michael Lowry got to support Fine Gael when it was in debt in the nineties.

Everything became subservient to the construction industry and it still is when you look at NAMA and the bank guarantee.

As opposed to being subservient to the farmers perhaps?

You laud all the decisions made by the government and in true ff style rubbish discenting voices and their lack of a credible alternative.

And your point is?

NAMA is a millstone around the necks of this generation and indeed the next.
We gave a bank guarantee to Anglo which is going to saddle the Irish citizens with 20 plus billion of toxic assets and IN which is going to give us 8 odd billion of toxic debts.

<nods>

We did what we had to do to get over a particular hurdle.

That is not even mentioning the fact that these banks are niche players and are costing us billions in recapitalisation.
Then you float the usual ff/pro NAMA kite about how this will not cost us since it is "buying debt without raising external finance" .
No matter what way you spin it, the Irish citizen becomes responsible for other people's outlandish debts and it will cost us in borrowing some day, unless of course we recreate the property bubble by some miracle ala frank fahey's wet dreams.

No, you just don't understand the cleverness of this move.
Next you'll show that you don't understand how fractional reserve banking creates money out of nothing.

BTW you appear very condescending towards Galway, a city which historically had always gotten a fair share of inward foreign investment in actual real jobs, well real at least until the multinationals left for greener pastures.

I've visited Galway several times, helped design a part of it, just don't want to live there - my people are on the East Coast.

If you are afraid to venture that far West I can introduce you to an empty estate in Carlow, a town 50 odd miles at the end of a motorway to Dublin and a town which became one of the Capital's commutter towns.

Nawww, Carlow's not for me either I'm afraid, except by necessity.

So stop bulls***ing about there only being supposed empty estates in the likes of Leitrim.

I knew I should've added Carlow as well.<drums fingers>

Oh and using the old favourite Leitrim shows lack of imagination.
Roscommon is just as bad.

I was trying to avoid mentioning Roscommon...

PS listening you talk about the doers and great balled wonders reminds me of Ulick McEvaddy lauding the supposed fine gentleman Seanie Fitz :rolleyes:
Theives, liars and the likes of Bernie Maddoff are also doers.
It doesn't mean we should respect them or want to emmulate them.

No. but it does mean you should acknowledge that without such creatures, most economies would tend to stagnate.

Are you still looking for investment property ?

Perhaps in Australia - Ulp!

ONQ

onq

sceptre wrote: »

Kindly read the forum charter and remember what politeness is people. Especially the politeness part, which should be the easiest part but for some of you doesn't appear to be. Personalising the argument isn't what the forum is for and isn't permitted by the charter.

/mod

Thanks mod, I've said my piece and am bowing out of this now - its circular.

Apologies for any offence caused on my part.

ONQ.

jmayo

onq wrote: »

...
Oho, so we're all little addicts now are we?
Poor little people with no power to say no who blame others for their misfortune.
Pul-lease!

It's Please you will find
No matter how you pronounce it.

I do blame ff for the misfortune of having to pay for the f***ups of it's governments.
I will pay higher taxes, get less services and generally have a worse life because they f***ed up firstly in implementing the polices they wanted and secondly in not dealing with the outcomes satisfactorily.

onq wrote: »

The same cohorts whom Michael Lowry got to support Fine Gael when it was in debt in the nineties.
As opposed to being subservient to the farmers perhaps?

You forgot to mention blueshirts :rolleyes:

Well the country couldn't be any more f***ed if they had rolled over and played footsie in the cowpats with the IFA and ICMSA.
(Farming organisations for those of an urban slant)

I don't ever recall hearing of any farmer owing the banks over 1 billion and then expecting the taxpayers to cover it ?
And don't forget farming actually give us somethings we can export, even though they have by products of cowsh** and sheepsh**, which upsets the greens so much.
All ff gave us was bull**** and we are now up to our necks in it. :rolleyes:
The greens don't seem too upset with bull**** it appears.

onq wrote: »

We did what we had to do to get over a particular hurdle.

Out of the fyring pan and into the fire ehhh.
Ah to hell with tomorrow, just worry about today. Short term solution.
You almost sound bertish.

onq wrote: »

No, you just don't understand the cleverness of this move.
Next you'll show that you don't understand how fractional reserve banking creates money out of nothing.

I will readily admit that I am not economist or an economics expert but I know when I am being sold a pup.

Tell me the cleverness of this move, please ?

Lets see we take 75 odd billion of loans from the banks for 54 odd billion even though by conservative estimates they are only worth 47 odd billion (and decreasing).
And if the loans are not being serviced we will take the securing assets and try and sell them.
Now unless the property market picks up to levels that were present at height of bubble when the loans were taken out, we will be selling these assets at value below what is outstanding on the loans.
And all the economic indicators would lead one to believe the proeprty market is doomed to go the other direction as realism enters the market.

So forgive me again for now being an economist, but that sounds like a bum deal.
I would hazard a guess it sounds like a bad deal to most people, bar of course yourself.
We lose money with estimates being between 10 and 25 billion.
That doesn't even mention the further recapitalisation required by the banks.

onq wrote: »

I've visited Galway several times, helped design a part of it, just don't want to live there - my people are on the East Coast.
Nawww, Carlow's not for me either I'm afraid, except by necessity.
I knew I should've added Carlow as well.<drums fingers>
I was trying to avoid mentioning Roscommon...

Wipee Galway and Carlow must have been honoured.

onq wrote: »

No. but it does mean you should acknowledge that without such creatures, most economies would tend to stagnate.

ONQ

Nice to see who you think are necessary for a non stagnant economy :rolleyes:
Has it ever crossed your mind that such individuals actually cause greater economic stagnation long term ?

onq

jmayo wrote: »

It's Please you will find
No matter how you pronounce it.

I do blame ff for the misfortune of having to pay for the f***ups of it's governments.
I will pay higher taxes, get less services and generally have a worse life because they f***ed up firstly in implementing the polices they wanted and secondly in not dealing with the outcomes satisfactorily.

You forgot to mention blueshirts :rolleyes:

<slaps head>
How could I have forgotten!

Well the country couldn't be any more f***ed if they had rolled over and played footsie in the cowpats with the IFA and ICMSA.
(Farming organisations for those of an urban slant)

We did that for enough years and it wasn't so great.
A balanced portfolio of industries is what is required I think.
That and self-sufficiency in food items.

I don't ever recall hearing of any farmer owing the banks over 1 billion and then expecting the taxpayers to cover it ?
And don't forget farming actually give us somethings we can export, even though they have by products of cowsh** and sheepsh**, which upsets the greens so much.
All ff gave us was bull**** and we are now up to our necks in it. :rolleyes:
The greens don't seem too upset with bull**** it appears.

Well the point about farmers and what they owed is well taken - mind you there are those who would argue that farmers took similar amounts from Brussels over the years for poorly productive small holdings.

Out of the fyring pan and into the fire ehhh.
Ah to hell with tomorrow, just worry about today. Short term solution.
You almost sound bertish.

Ah lads, lads... this is getting durty now...

I will readily admit that I am not economist or an economics expert but I know when I am being sold a pup.

Tell me the cleverness of this move, please ?

I'm not an economist either but Nama paying for it with government paper instead of with internationally borrowed cash meant we didn't have to borrow so much actual money.

Lets see we take 75 odd billion of loans from the banks for 54 odd billion even though by conservative estimates they are only worth 47 odd billion (and decreasing).
And if the loans are not being serviced we will take the securing assets and try and sell them.
Now unless the property market picks up to levels that were present at height of bubble when the loans were taken out, we will be selling these assets at value below what is outstanding on the loans.
And all the economic indicators would lead one to believe the proeprty market is doomed to go the other direction as realism enters the market.

Willya relax for goodness sakes.

So forgive me again for now being an economist, but that sounds like a bum deal.
I would hazard a guess it sounds like a bad deal to most people, bar of course yourself.
We lose money with estimates being between 10 and 25 billion.
That doesn't even mention the further recapitalisation required by the banks.

Its a holding exercise - by the time of payback money will have devalued to allow it to be done at more rational levels - like paying off the last few years of a mortgage.

Wipee Galway and Carlow must have been honoured.

Wha?

Nice to see who you think are necessary for a non stagnant economy :rolleyes:
Has it ever crossed your mind that such individuals actually cause greater economic stagnation long term ?

Wimmin like naughty boys for the same reason.

Or so de wife tells me...

LOL!

ONQ.

Amhran Nua

onq wrote: »

A balanced portfolio of industries is what is required I think.

That reminds me, you never did explain what expertise Irish builders have that couldn't be found in China. There's plenty more in that post but lets just take a look at that for the meanwhile, we'll get to the rest as the evening progresses.

SkepticOne

onq wrote: »

I'm not an economist either but Nama paying for it with government paper instead of with internationally borrowed cash meant we didn't have to borrow so much actual money.

Same thing. Government paper is internationally borrowed money.

Flamed Diving

Wow.