Band of rain/sleet/snow pushing up from the south 29th+30th Dec - Snowstorm or not?

Trogdor

Will it, won't it? Carry on in here lads;)

WolfeIRE

0c here. has not budged since 11am. Met Eireann not committing to any large scale snowfall. Very little indication of any possible accumulations if any. Drat!

28 December 2009 11:50

Today Frost and fog lingering this afternoon in parts of the midlands, Connacht and Ulster. Mostly dry with bright or sunny spells. Cloudier over Muntser with outbreaks of rain developing in southern parts of Kerry and Cork this evening. A few showers on eastern coasts also. Highest temperatrues of 0 to 4 degrees for most areas, but reaching 6 to 8 degrees in the southwest.
Tonight

Rain and sleet will move up over Munster and south Leinster overnight, falling as snow on mountains. Temperatrues here will range from 0 to +4 degrees with fresh easterly winds. A dry night further north with a sharp or severe frost developing and lowest temperatures of -4 to 0 degrees.

Tomorrow

Dry at first tomorrow in many areas with frost and icy stretches on roads. Rain and sleet in Muntser and south Leinster will extend northwards, falling as snow in places, especially on high ground. Parts of Ulster will stay mostly dry. A raw, blustery day with fresh east to northeast winds and highest temperatures of 1 to 5 degrees

rains on the way here, plenty of black clouds in distance. I hope to jaze we get some snow here in Lucan over the next day or two

Redsunset

Severe fog down over leopardstown race course,extreamly poor visibility.
Looking at it on rte.


Seems like going to be cancelled

Our man in Havana

Typical of Met Éireann really. Cover their arses and all bases.

jenzz

trogdor wrote: »

Will it, won't it? Carry on in here lads;)

Hope it does - just for the craic - If we get any up here on the peak of Bray sure yees can all come for tea - bitter here even though 4.3 .... that shower that came down there has the house freezing

Those would be a few irish sea rain showers.
It's calm now,the advection of the cold air hasn't happened yet so we rely on an existing cold pool that will at the start only do the business on the mountain tops.
Except for the very high ground,this *will* start as rain everywhere with flooding potential as warm and cold air collide to give large precip totals.

Snow levels will drop to 600ft at some point in the next 36hrs,I just dont know when and it will settle at that height.
Thereafter and I don't know when it will drop to sea level inland and lastly to the coast as the Easterly/northeasterly digs in with ever colder air.

WolfeIRE

here comes the precip. any reports from south kerry/cork?

leahyl

WolfeIRE wrote: »

here comes the precip. any reports from south kerry/cork?

still dull and dry in Cork City WolfeIRE - but it looks a bit away yet anyway:)

Mothman

Deleted User wrote: »

Those would be a few irish sea rain showers.
It's calm now,the advection of the cold air hasn't happened yet so we rely on an existing cold pool that will at the start only do the business on the mountain tops.
Except for the very high ground,this *will* start as rain everywhere with flooding potential as warm and cold air collide to give large precip totals.

Snow levels will drop to 600ft at some point in the next 36hrs,I just dont know when and it will settle at that height.
Thereafter and I don't know when it will drop to sea level inland and lastly to the coast as the Easterly/northeasterly digs in with ever colder air.

Ground conditions are going to be awful in places.

Rain thaws the top surface, but the ice underneath will hold it there. Also the frozen ground may enhance runoff which may contribute to flooding and we may still see ice on the ground after the rain has runoff.

Timistry

No precip yet anyway. will keep ye posted. Expecting rain for the next two days anyway. Its tropical here in comparison to the rest of the country.

WolfeIRE

it is minus 0.5c here in a strengthening easterly and extensive cloud cover.

temp has not risen all day and has dropped 0.5c in last half hour. there has been no thaw.

burkieboy

Radar at 14.45


GFS Prec Cast 06hrs for 15.00
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What do you think is the rain ahead of gfs prediction or is it just me

WolfeIRE

i thought so myself about it being ahead of gfs. it will most likely be stalled over south for a lot of tonight.

Lumi

WolfeIRE wrote: »

it is minus 0.5c here in a strengthening easterly and extensive cloud cover.

temp has not risen all day and has dropped 0.5c in last half hour. there has been no thaw.

Almost identical conditions further north on Galway. 0c, overcast and everything still White with frost - absolutely no thaw!

jenzz

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i thought so myself about it being ahead of gfs. it will most likely be stalled over south for a lot of tonight.

Is that good or bad Wolfe??

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

it is minus 0.5c here in a strengthening easterly and extensive cloud cover.

temp has not risen all day and has dropped 0.5c in last half hour. there has been no thaw.

Could you change your location in your profile to exactly where you are

owenc

Fionagus wrote: »

Almost identical conditions further north on Galway. 0c, overcast and everything still White with frost - absolutely no thaw!

yes -2c here already I think we will get lower than -4c somehow anyone else?

Gonzo

hard frost holding here too. Absolutely frezzing outside.

Totally cloudy here all day.
Temp is 3.8c and dp is 2.1c

jenzz

Just went out to the dryer there - that rain shower froze ontop of the frost from last night - I doubt i have the 3.9 that we are showing .... skating rink & only 3.30pm - Think minime can stay in Wexford for the time being I aint driving down on that !!!!

Pangea

Deleted User wrote: »

I've just heard a 2nd person has died from the bus that overturned near Gorey

Really? Its not on the news yet.

jenzz

Pangea wrote: »

Really? Its not on the news yet.

Breakingnews are a bit slow today with it being a bank hol - Ex hubby said that too when he rang.. 20 injured 2 dead so far...

Yeah sad.
I was told by a Garda so it's rock solid reliable.
They've been very busy today attending crashes on that stretch of road.
One of the Garda traffic corps cars also went into the ditch at the scene of the bus crash.

nacho libre

no thaw at all today. the frost has clung steadfast to the trees. meanwhile it's beginning to cloud over here:eek: what is going on? is the system moving uqicker than predicted at first, only then to slow down as it moves in over the south?

K-9

Fionagus wrote: »

Almost identical conditions further north on Galway. 0c, overcast and everything still White with frost - absolutely no thaw!

Same here in Convoy, Donegal. No thaw at all and going by RTE, doesn't look there will be for next couple of days. Getting into the tenth day of these conditions, starting to lose its charm!

jenzz wrote: »

Breakingnews are a bit slow today with it being a bank hol - Ex hubby said that too when he rang.. 20 injured 2 dead so far...

I'd heard an ambulance over turned on that road too.

nacho libre

jenzz wrote: »

Breakingnews are a bit slow today with it being a bank hol - Ex hubby said that too when he rang.. 20 injured 2 dead so far...

too late now regretting the debate over whose responsibility it was to grit the road:rolleyes:

Our man in Havana

Absolutely terrible news.

nacho libre

K-9 wrote: »

Same here in Convoy, Donegal. No thaw at all and going by RTE, doesn't look there will be for next couple of days. Getting into the tenth day of these conditions, starting to lose its charm!

i don't see a thaw happening for the rest of week. normally RTE would be saying things are going to get worse just as they are about to get better

Nacho,
yes the cloud ahead of the rain is over a wide area.
http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-ir.asp

Dunno how that will affect frost further north,it will probably impair it.

The band looks further south on the 12z

Also the latest news 24 graphics has the whole of co wexford right to the coast under heavy snow by tomorrow after noon :eek:

owenc

Deleted User wrote: »

Nacho,
yes the cloud ahead of the rain is over a wide area.
http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-ir.asp

Dunno how that will affect frost further north,it will probably impair it.

The band looks further south on the 12z

Also the latest news 24 graphics has the whole of co wexford right to the coast under heavy snow by tomorrow after noon :eek:

hopefully temps will get low enough not for the frost to melt!:(

Timistry

Clouded over now but no rain still.

leahyl

Deleted User wrote: »

Nacho,
yes the cloud ahead of the rain is over a wide area.
http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-ir.asp

Dunno how that will affect frost further north,it will probably impair it.

The band looks further south on the 12z

Also the latest news 24 graphics has the whole of co wexford right to the coast under heavy snow by tomorrow after noon :eek:

And how's cork looking on that chart Nacho?!:)

I'm not nacho lol but the BBC news 24 chart would have snow over most of kerry by the same time,north cork across to west waterford.
Much of Northwest cork like say macroom,millstreet,Fermoy south to almost the city but not quite.

missloulou

hey Black Briar, are you expecting any snow in our direction??

ninebeanrows

12z GFS trends another 50 miles south.

I reckon it will trend probably another 80 miles south over the next 2 runs.

Leaving Ireland in a situation where snow will begin to fall from tomorrow evening across a large part of the country and continue to fall for over 24 hours or more in parts.

Potential for very large accumulations of snow, perhaps over 1ft in some inland hilly areas as band of precip feed from the east across the country as the low stalls to our south only slowly slipping away.

Severe Weather potential, the sheer amount of snow that could potentially fall between tomorrow and Thursday/Friday is massive. I haven't ever seen a synoptic set up offer such an extreme possibility.

There is the realistic liklihood that the Wicklow mountains could see over 2 feet of accumulated snow.

An extreme weather watch should be put in place.

leahyl

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not nacho lol but the BBC news 24 chart would have snow over most of kerry by the same time,north cork across to west waterford.
Much of Northwest cork like say macroom,millstreet,Fermoy south to almost the city but not quite.

oops sorry black briar:eek:! OH no! No joy for the city then...ah well...:(

snaps

-1c here most of the day. light cloud cover as well. Just driven home on back roads, an 8 min journey has just taken 30 mins. People are still driving like idiots. None of the roads my way seem to have been touched with grit.

TheMilkyPirate

Deleted User wrote: »

Nacho,
yes the cloud ahead of the rain is over a wide area.
http://www.met.ie/sat/iuk-ir.asp

Dunno how that will affect frost further north,it will probably impair it.

The band looks further south on the 12z

Also the latest news 24 graphics has the whole of co wexford right to the coast under heavy snow by tomorrow after noon :eek:

Now there's a surprise! If only it would happen :pac:

Snoddy

Any chance of this hitting dundalk or are we too north and too coastal?

Our man in Havana

An extreme weather watch should be put in place.

No one has the balls to do so it would seem.

Rougies

Weathercheck wrote: »

There is the realistic liklihood that the Wicklow mountains could see over 2 feet of accumulated snow.

An extreme weather watch should be put in place.

:eek::eek::eek:

plein de force

north dublin have a good chance this time round?:p

missloulou

missloulou wrote: »

hey Black Briar, are you expecting any snow in our direction??

Arklow?
Yes from this system eventually.
It's very hard to say.
But after it passes,there will be plenty of sea showers likely to be all of snow.

It's hit an miss where they appear in off the sea as they come in trains one after the other as they develop and hit the same area yet not hit 10 miles up the road.
Thats for later.

I would hazzard a guess that this system in the next 36hrs will plaster most of the higher ground of south wicklow with snow.

I hope I haven't jinxed it.

channaigh

ny chance of snow hitting kilkenny we never get snow

ninebeanrows

Snow storm followed by bitter Northeasterlies.

All within 84 hours. :eek::D

Rougies

Weathercheck, you got like 3 feet of air that time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK8byQsugFw

nacho libre

it's going to be fascinating seeing what the outputs from the various models are this evening.

jenzz

nacho libre wrote: »

too late now regretting the debate over whose responsibility it was to grit the road:rolleyes:

Happens every year - Our local coco sold off the road sweepers & the gritters... Thats grand & dandy till they go try rent one ... tools they are ...

Lady_North

plein de force wrote: »

north dublin have a good chance this time round?:p

?? Any one? Love a snow shower or two. Especially as I don't have to go anywhere for the next few days.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

Arklow?
Yes from this system eventually.
It's very hard to say.
But after it passes,there will be plenty of sea showers likely to be all of snow.

It's hit an miss where they appear in off the sea as they come in trains one after the other as they develop and hit the same area yet not hit 10 miles up the road.
Thats for later.

I would hazzard a guess that this system in the next 36hrs will plaster most of the higher ground of south wicklow with snow.

I hope I haven't jinxed it.

yep the likes of supercell could be snowed in by Thursday.