Boards forecast contest for 2010 -- January

M.T. Cranium

Your long-range forecast for January, 2010
______________________________________

As mentioned, the forecast contest will be slightly redesigned to seek more skill and less blind luck. There is still one bonus question worth 10% that will likely be something of a toss-up, but even there, you have to have some idea of the prevailing pattern to score points there.

I had a thread open for 2-3 weeks seeking input and discussion, and while there was not much of either, I assume that people interested in the contest have read the suggestions for a slight re-tooling of the project, and from their lack of protests, were neutral or mildly in favour.

So here's what we will be doing in the monthly forecast contest in 2010, starting with January, and consider this your call for forecasts. I don't want to start off by penalizing or excluding people, so I will see how the turnout looks by 31 Dec and announce a final cut-off time then. For the rest of the year it will be end of the first day of the month. But with the holidays and possible bad weather looming, I would like to start with a good turnout, and I may extend the deadline to end of 2nd just this one time, unless I figure all the likely suspects are in already.

Okay, then, here's where you can turn on control C if that's what you do (and I know it is) ...

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

---

PM me if you have any questions about the contest, or post them here especially if you think others may have the same questions. It's all for a bit of fun and friendly competition, and good luck to all who choose to enter.

I will take a suggestion and change slightly the convention established in 2009 for the annual competition, to be eligible to win that, you will need to enter at least ten of the twelve months, and the winners will be chosen from the average of their ten best scores for the year. If you miss two months, you won't be able to drop any clunkers, if you miss one month, you have one free pass. This will reward our more faithful posters but also give no incentive for missing the last forecast(s) of the year. Not that anyone ever did.

Oh yes, and Happy Christmas or joyous whatever you are celebrating besides.

nacho libre

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

3.5c

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

11.9c

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
-6.3

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.
90 per cent of normal

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

110 per cent above normal

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

78 knots at belmullet

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Your long-range forecast for January, 2010
______________________________________



(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

Hi M.T.

Just to clarify to everyone taking part, the mean temperature value used in the comp is the combined daily means of 5 inland Met Eireann stations.
Casement; Claremorris, Mullingar; Oak Park & Shannon Apt.
In this case, it will go on the freely available 61-90 data.

Not only does it give us an idea of what to expect each month temperature wise, but it is easily monitored on a daily basis via the Met Eireann Daily Data page by anyone who should have an interest in doing so.

As MT mentioned, slightly lower values will probably be recorded using this method as opposed to last year's one, but values are likely to be slightly higher during the summer months.

Su Campu

Since when did Shannon Airport move inland?? Wouldn't Ballyhaise be a better option?

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

Since when did Shannon Airport move inland?? Wouldn't Ballyhaise be a better option?

It is the only publically viewed station in the mid west that is inland, not far I admit, but neither is Casement. Ballyhaise I would use gladly, but there is no 61-90 average for the station. Birr would have been my first choice over Shannon, but sadly it has ceased to be.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

It is the only publically viewed station in the mid west that is inland, not far I admit, but neither is Casement. Ballyhaise I would use gladly, but there is no 61-90 average for the station. Birr would have been my first choice over Shannon, but sadly it has ceased to be.

Ah OK, they do have mean temperatures for Ballyhaise (they use it in the Agricultural Data table for the last seven days) but you're only using the freely available means. Gotchya

kindredspirit

1. Mean temp. 4.4°C

2. Highest temp. 12.0°C

3. Lowest temp. -6.5°C

4. % of precip. 96%

5. % of sunshine. 103%

6. 65 knots.

(I presume that I won't do any better in 2010 than I did in 2009. )

Deep Easterly

(1) 5.2c

(2) 11.3c

(3) -8.1c

(4) 139.7mm

(5) 123%

(6) 103knts

---

(1) 5.0c

(2) 11.5c

(3) -7.3c

(4) 94%

(5) 89%

(6) 75knts

Danno

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month. 2.9c

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010. 12.1c

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010. -13.7

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average. 103%

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above. 92%

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when. 56kt

cherryghost

1. Mean tempetaure = 3.9

2. Highest temperature = 11

3. Lowest temperature = -9

4. % of precipitation = 98%

5. % of sunshine = 96%

6. Strongest gust = 80 knots

nacho libre

i fear i was too conservative with the lowest monthly figure:D

some place will likely see close to - 9 or - 10 out of the next cold period

dasa29

1. Mean tempetaure = 4.5c

2. Highest temperature = 8c

3. Lowest temperature = -8c

4. % of precipitation = 115%

5. % of sunshine = 90%

6. Strongest gust = 50 knots

Redsunset

1. Mean tempetaure = 3.7c

2. Highest temperature = 9c

3. Lowest temperature = -11c

4. % of precipitation = 90%

5. % of sunshine = 125%

6. Strongest gust = 69 knots

Strasser

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

3.8c

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

12.5c

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
-11.3

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.
85 per cent of normal

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

120 per cent above normal

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

24 knots at Malin

M.T. Cranium

Please note, for the sunshine forecasts, several entries have said "110 per cent above normal" or similar wording. This needs to be clarified, are you entering at 110 per cent of normal or 210 per cent of normal? Please edit by end of 1st Jan. Also raw precip forecast needs to be converted to percentage of normal.

Here's my guesses for the contest:

1. 2.8 C

2. 10.5 C

3. -12.5 C

4. 80 per cent rainfall (precip)

5. 155% sunshine

6. 64 knots (Belmullet 30th)

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

(1) 5.2c

(2) 11.3c

(3) -8.1c

(4) 139.7mm

(5) 123%

(6) 103knts

---

Hi M.T. if it is ok, could I up my mean temp guess from 5.2c to 5.6c. Thanking you kindly.

nacho libre

sorry for the confusion mc. i meant to say 110 per cent of normal.

unforunately i am unable to edit my post. So i'll have to go again.

1. Mean tempetaure = 3.6c

2. Highest temperature = 11.9c

3. Lowest temperature = - 10.9c

4. % of precipitation = 98%

5. % of sunshine = 110%

6. Strongest gust = 78 knots at Belmullet

jd

mm


1. 3.5

2. 10.8

3. -12.1

4. 94 %

5. 103 %

6. 69 knots Malin Head, 30th


and I think Jean Byrne will wear purple with silver trimmings on her first televised weather forecast of the new year :D

Su Campu

Here goes

1) 3.2°C

2) 11.8°C

3) -7.9°C

4) 95%

5) 110%

6) 74kts at Roches Point

M.T. Cranium

We're getting a good turnout, thanks to all ... DE can you possibly convert your mms of precip forecast to a percentage? Thanks, all edits or corrections will be accepted until closing of all entries. I said end of 1st maybe end of the 2nd, but just to be really hospitable to possible new talent, I will hold the door open to end of the 2nd (Saturday 2359h) then we see what actually happens. To be quite frank, if I took the guesses on the 5th it would be about the same, I'm sure. The models quite often show us trends 10-15 days out that aren't even close to verifying when the time comes.

You guys are taking my storm more seriously than I am (in some cases). :eek:

Deep Easterly

Sorry M.T. Stick me down for 100% precipitation dead on! Tanx.

200motels

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

3.4C

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

12.4

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
-7.5

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.
110 Percent of normal

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

114 Percent of normal

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

89 knots at Mallin Head

kindredspirit

Hi MT,

Can I revise my forecast?

1. Mean temp. 3.5°C

2. Highest temp. 12.0°C

3. Lowest temp. -11°C

4. % of precip. 94%

5. % of sunshine. 103%

6. 65 knots.

Joe Public

It's time to be a bit different!

1. Mean temp. 1.9°C

2. Highest temp. 13.0°C

3. Lowest temp. -12°C

4. % of precip. 50%

5. % of sunshine. 150%

6. 49 knots. Valentia on 30th

DOCARCH

1. Mean temp. 2.7c

2. Highest temp. 12.2c

3. Lowest temp. -11.8c

4. % of precip. 78%

5. % of sunshine. 110%

6. Strongest wind gust. 82 knots (Mace Head - Jan 26th)

Lumi

1) 4.2c
2) 10.3c
3) -13.1c
4) 78%
5) 110%
6) 88knots - Belmullet

nilhg

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

3.7C

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

10.1C

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

-13.3C

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.

65% of normal

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

121% of normal

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

91 knots at Belmullet 30th

If it's ok with you MT I would like to revise my forecast:

(1) 3.6c

(2) 10.3c

(3) -10.4c

(4) 94%

(5) 112%

(6) 75knts at Belmullet

WolfeIRE

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Your long-range forecast for January, 2010

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.
3.3 C

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
8.5 C

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
-8.3 C

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.
80%

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.
112%

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

68 knots (Mace Head, 11.45pm Sun 31 January)

M.T. Cranium

Deadline for forecasts and edits has now passed, I will accept Wolfe IRE as he's a newbie and let's face it, any real idea of the monthly mean, monthly max and eventual outcomes of most other variables here are about as obscure as they could possibly be -- sure looks like one of the coldest Januaries since about 1987 at least (perhaps DE could let us know what Jan 1987, 1982, 1979 and 1963 produced for the mean temp we are using in this comp, plus any other Jans colder than say 3.0 in recent times? Just as a guide. )

All revisions before this post accepted. Strasser, are you in for 110 or 210 per cent of normal sunshine?

Joe Public

Have a look at these archives

http://www.dx3webs.com/81/Irelandmeantemp.php

It appears that The Vale of Ancholme Technology College for North Lincolnshire LEA pulled data from http://www.metoffice.com/climate/uk/ and imported into a database. Not all their queries work so possibly it's a work in progress or maybe that's as much appears on the website.

jd

jd wrote: »

and I think Jean Byrne will wear purple with silver trimmings on her first televised weather forecast of the new year :D

Black with Purple , close

M.T. Cranium

Your forecasts
_________________

A new feature this month ... a review of all the forecasts submitted. I have arranged them by mildest to coldest in terms of the monthly average predicted (using our new index supplied by Deep Easterly). The various other forecasts are listed along with that monthly call.

Forecaster ......... Mean .... Max ... Min ... %rain ... %sun ... wind kts 29-31
________________________________________________________________


Deep Easterly ....... 5.6 ..... 11.3 ..... -8.1 ..... 100 ..... 123 ..... 103
Dasa29 ................. 4.5 ...... 8.0 ..... -8.0 ..... 115 ...... 90 ...... 50
Fionagus .............. 4.2 ..... 10.3 ..... -13.1 ..... 78 ..... 110 ...... 88
Cherryghost ........... 3.9 ..... 11.0 ..... -9.0 ...... 98 ...... 96 ...... 80
Strasser ............... 3.8 ..... 12.5 ..... -11.3 ..... 85 ..... 120 ...... 24
Redsunset ............. 3.7 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 90 ..... 125 ..... 69
Nilhg ................... 3.7 ..... 10.1 ..... -13.3 ..... 65 ..... 121 ..... 91
Nacho Libre .......... 3.6 ..... 11.9 ..... -10.9 ..... 98 ..... 110 ..... 78
Hellboy99 ............. 3.6 ..... 10.3 ..... -10.4 ..... 94 ..... 112 ..... 75
JD ..................... 3.5 ..... 10.8 ..... -12.1 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 69
Kindred Spirit ........ 3.5 ..... 12.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 65
200motels ........... 3.4 ..... 12.4 ..... -7.5 ..... 110 ..... 114 ..... 89
WolfeIRE ............. 3.3 ...... 8.5 ..... -8.3 ...... 80 ..... 112 ..... 68
Su Campu ............ 3.2 ..... 11.8 ..... -7.9 ..... 95 ..... 110 ..... 74
Danno ................ 2.9 ..... 12.1 ..... -13.7 ..... 103 ...... 92 ..... 76
M.T. Cranium ........ 2.8 ..... 10.5 ..... -12.5 ..... 80 ..... 155 ..... 64
DOCARCH ............. 2.7 ..... 12.2 ..... -11.8 ..... 78 ..... 110 ..... 82
Joe Public ............ 1.9 ..... 13.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 50 ..... 150 ..... 49

Deep Easterly

As of the 5th January, the mean temperature of our 5 met eireann stations is -1.2c. This is 5.8c below the expected 61-90 Jan average so far. Despite this, I am confident my guess of 5.7c will be achieved when the month is finally over! :pac:

M.T. Cranium

I assume then the 103 kt wind will be a southerly?

Just for interest, the five stations had what sort of average for December, using our old method we came up with 4.1 C but I'm sure the five-station average would have been lower.

Thanks again for offering us the updates and I think it will be more representative, much as I would love to live near Valentia, almost nobody does and for that matter, same with Knock. And those were basically the stations most likely to comprise the old two-station average.

I will keep an eye on the precip and sunshine stats in the ag report to give some running estimates there. Safe to say we (you really) have not hit the monthly max yet.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I assume then the 103 kt wind will be a southerly?

Just for interest, the five stations had what sort of average for December, using our old method we came up with 4.1 C but I'm sure the five-station average would have been lower.
.

The December average of the 5 met stations used finished at 3.0c.

M.T. Cranium

While DE kindly keeps an eye on the unfolding of the temperature trend, I will consult the met.ie ag-met section to see how rainfall and sunshine are doing.

By rainfall, especially this month, we're talking about liquid equivalent of all precip recorded. So far, the average of 13 stations is a measly 24% of average (1-7 Jan) which ranges from nothing at Ballyhaise to almost normal amounts at Belmullet. Most places have only seen a bit of snow, basically.

As to the sunshine hours, those are running way over normal values so far, the average of seven stations is about 240 per cent of normal.

Although DE addressed the temperatures, I noticed that the anomalies at all stations are in the range of 3 to 6 below normal so far. Some could be even lower than that by the end of Sunday, with these bitter cold overnight lows.

M.T. Cranium

Looking at the figures from the second "week" 8th-14th, I note that the rainfall figures for the period averaged close to normal (west was wet, east dry) so that the running total to the end of the 14th would be about 62% of normal, but with the 15th in mind, this is probably already sitting closer to 80 or 90 per cent (to date, not the monthly total).

Meanwhile, the sunshine continued to be above normal, but not as much as the first seven days. This seven day period gave an average of 120% of normal values, and this places the running figure at 180% of average. One thing that means for sure is that the month has to reach 90% even if the sun hardly ever comes out again.

The temperatures are DE's file, but I noticed that they had only edged slightly up as of the 14th and I would hazard the guess that after the 16th the five-station mean will be up to about 1.0 C, it's probably now near 0.2 C.

nacho libre

dear god i thought i'd never hear myself say this but we need a run of several days with temperatures in double figures:pac:

M.T. Cranium

It's nice to have that table of all entries, and it's going to make scoring a lot easier for me to do. We were in some danger of all being too high on the monthly temperature, now I sense maybe not. I think I will score an additional contestant, namely "Con Sensus" from the median value of all forecasts. I've heard that Con Sensus is often top five in any given competition.

Deep Easterly

As of midnight last (the 15th), the Jan mean temp of our 5 inland met eireann stations is standing at -0.5c. This equates to 5.1c below the 61-90 norm. However, a rapid rise in this figure is beginning to occur, which make me all the more confident that my guess of 5.6c as the finish mean will be the correct one. :pac:

Joe Public

Deep Easterly wrote: »

As of midnight last (the 15th), the Jan mean temp of our 5 inland met eireann stations is standing at -0.5c. This equates to 5.1c below the 61-90 norm. However, a rapid rise in this figure is beginning to occur, which make me all the more confident that my guess of 5.6c as the finish mean will be the correct one. :pac:

Are we in for a BBQ fortnight

M.T. Cranium

I just updated the running precip and sunshine figures from the third seven-day interval of the month.

Precip continued to catch up to normal (145% for the third period) and now sits around 90% of normal values -- a totally dry end to the month would drop that to closer to 65%, and a near-normal end would edge it up to about 95%, these seem like the most probable extremes now, so 80% is looking good for the monthly guess.

Sunshine has continued a bit higher than normal but not by as much as previously, so that the monthly total is now about 160% of normal. The rest of the month looks possibly that high or certainly likely to break 100% for the ten days in question, so that I'm thinking 140-150 per cent is the best range for your monthly guess.

Temperatures, DE can confirm this, but the period 15th-21st ran 1-2 C above normal which wipes out a considerable part of the large negative anomaly in place after the 14th. I am guessing that the monthly average is now up to about 2 C for the five stations (from sub-zero earlier). From the models I would estimate the final landing point is near 3 C (giving this period as about 5 or 6). Some colder nights would perhaps keep it in the high 2s.

Will be posting the February thread soon, the bonus question will be max temperatures for romantic Valentia on the 14th, and all the other questions you already know what to expect there.

M.T. Cranium

You may recall that I have added "Con Sensus" to the forecast contest. Con Sensus will always have the median forecasts of the group. Here's where he/she stands in that regard:

Forecaster ......... Mean .... Max ... Min ... %rain ... %sun ... wind kts 29-31
________________________________________________________________


Deep Easterly ....... 5.6 ..... 11.3 ..... -8.1 ..... 100 ..... 123 ..... 103
Dasa29 ................. 4.5 ...... 8.0 ..... -8.0 ..... 115 ...... 90 ...... 50
Fionagus .............. 4.2 ..... 10.3 ..... -13.1 ..... 78 ..... 110 ...... 88
Cherryghost ........... 3.9 ..... 11.0 ..... -9.0 ...... 98 ...... 96 ...... 80
Strasser ............... 3.8 ..... 12.5 ..... -11.3 ..... 85 ..... 120 ...... 24
Redsunset ............. 3.7 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 90 ..... 125 ..... 69
Nilhg ................... 3.7 ..... 10.1 ..... -13.3 ..... 65 ..... 121 ..... 91
Nacho Libre .......... 3.6 ..... 11.9 ..... -10.9 ..... 98 ..... 110 ..... 78
Hellboy99 ............. 3.6 ..... 10.3 ..... -10.4 ..... 94 ..... 112 ..... 75

Con Sensus ......... 3.6 ..... 11.2 ..... -11.0 .... 94 .... 111 ..... 72

JD ..................... 3.5 ..... 10.8 ..... -12.1 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 69
Kindred Spirit ........ 3.5 ..... 12.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 65
200motels ........... 3.4 ..... 12.4 ..... -7.5 ..... 110 ..... 114 ..... 89
WolfeIRE ............. 3.3 ...... 8.5 ..... -8.3 ...... 80 ..... 112 ..... 68
Su Campu ............ 3.2 ..... 11.8 ..... -7.9 ..... 95 ..... 110 ..... 74
Danno ................ 2.9 ..... 12.1 ..... -13.7 ..... 103 ...... 92 ..... 76
M.T. Cranium ........ 2.8 ..... 10.5 ..... -12.5 ..... 80 ..... 155 ..... 64
DOCARCH ............. 2.7 ..... 12.2 ..... -11.8 ..... 78 ..... 110 ..... 82
Joe Public ............ 1.9 ..... 13.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 50 ..... 150 ..... 49

Deep Easterly

A chart just to show that daily mean anomalies (as compared to the 61-90 daily mean) of our 5 met eireann stations used in the competition since the 1st January 09 up to midnight last:

(Graph based on the combinded daily means of 5 met eireann stations: Casement/Claremorris/Mullingar/Oak Park/Shannon Airport and set against the combined daily average for the 61-90 period)

The depth of the late Dec 09/early Jan 10 cool spell can clearly be pointed out, and certainly stands out when compared to the cool spells of Jan/Feb 09.

It is evident from that chart also that a strong warming trend took place in the first half of 2009 in general, with a gradual cooling during the second half overall. The trend for the last 6 months however, suggests a slow rise again as we head into 2010. Will be interesting to see what effect the current El Nino will have, if any, during this year on the temperature profile in our storm bashed north Atlantic rock.

All data used C/O Met Eireann

Deep Easterly

4 days left of January 2010 and it looks as if it will, like the preceding December, finish significantly below the 61-90 normal. Up to midnight last (figure does not incorporate Oak Park data from the 26th as not updated yet) the deviation figure is at -3.2c. In actual terms this equates to a current Jan mean of 1.4c.

Daily mean temps at our 5 met eireann stations are expected to rise by about 2c over the next few days so I am guessing the final deviation wil probably be around 2.6c to 2.8c. Still very notable, esp as it followed on the back of an equally cold (anomalously speaking) December.

Su Campu

What exactly are the dashed lines?

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

What exactly are the dashed lines?

The linear and polynomial trend lines from the Jan 1st 09 starting point.

M.T. Cranium

Just a note here on scoring when few people are close to the actual value in any of the parameters. In 2009 we only had perhaps two or three cases where the normal marking system (one point off per 0.1 C error) led to anomalously low scoring in general, requiring a mercy rule. But I want to make even the mercy rules objective, so I have decided that the following rules will apply.

First, to mean monthly temp, which is worth 25 points this year. The scores for this must exceed 20, 15, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 for the first ten finishers. If at any stage of this progression the actual scores fell below that standard then for those contestants in rank order the scores would be increased to this progression.

For the two monthly extremes that are worth 20, the same logic applies and the standard will be 15, 12, 10 etc.

For the rainfall in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 3% error. This component is worth 15 points, and the scores must equal or exceed 12, 10, 8, 7 etc.

For the sunshine in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 5% error. This component is worth 10 points, and scores must equal or exceed 10, 9, 8, etc, except that the 10 can be reduced to 9 if the error is 10% or greater, which will then reduce the standard by one thereafter.

The bonus question will always be scored in rank order regardless of errors.

I will copy this into the annual scoring thread and people can refer to this if they think they see scoring errors (use of this system will help to equalize the months which is more important now as we have decided to go with your ten best forecasts out of however many you make in 2010).

Final point, because of the new annual system, you'll be playing for two highly coveted prizes:

THE BOARDS.IE FORECAST CHALLENGE -- based on your best ten scores

THE MT CRANIUM AWARD OF MERIT -- reserved for best total of 12 months

The defending champion for the latter is Danno, and probably also for the first one (best ten scores), but there I would have to check the scores of a few other people to see if they had a couple of real stinkers, because Danno probably didn't have a month below 50 if I remember correctly.

Deep Easterly

Have no idea of how the other parameters used in the comp will work out, but it is looking very likely as if Joe Public will be the one who guessed the Mean Temp the closest. As of midnight last night, the 5 station mean is standing at 1.77c (this does not include Oak Park data from the 26th as has yet to be updated). The exact final figure will not be known until this daily figure is updated on the met eireann website, but the finishing January figure will not pass 1.9c.

Congrats to Joe Public on this, and to the others who guessed the most correctly in the above comp questions.