Cold Spell Discussion (22/12/09) (Freeze continues across country)

ninebeanrows · 22-12-2009 8:50am #1

Looking like staying cold upto and after Christmas, will turn abit milder along southern and western coasts for a time during Stephens day. But many inland areas and further north staying very cold with snowcover lasting.

Scattered snow showers again today in the north and west.

The big watch is on this shortwave feature set to slam into the south and push up the east coast tomorrow. It is a marginal situation but looks like giving signifigant accumalations inland during tomorrow evening.

Leinster and Munster both at risk.

The GFS looks abit warmer than yesterday but i note that Dew points in my location vary between -1c and 1c during the precip. If your dewpoints can stay at 0c or below you will have snow, so there is an example how borderline it is.

The rollercoaster continues.;)

owenc · 22-12-2009 8:53am

good troughs heading down here pretty large though migt not make it expecting a max of no higher than 1c again

dbyrne · 22-12-2009 8:55am

Thanks weathercheck, just what I wanted to hear. I see the chance of snow has increased to 40% for dublin and Sky News seem to be getting in on the act too. just waiting to see if met erieann change their 5 day forcast. Going back to Donegal on Christmas eve, hopefully get a white christmas up there but wife says everything is solid ice there at the moment.

irish1967 · 22-12-2009 8:58am

dbyrne wrote: »

Thanks weathercheck, just what I wanted to hear. I see the chance of snow has increased to 40% for dublin and Sky News seem to be getting in on the act too. just waiting to see if met erieann change their 5 day forcast. Going back to Donegal on Christmas eve, hopefully get a white christmas up there but wife says everything is solid ice there at the moment.

Your wife is 100% correct !! Its solid ice up here !! I guess it technically will be a white Christmas here !!

ch750536 · 22-12-2009 9:02am

A colleague left the office for a 40 mile commute home at 2.30 pm, arrived at home 11.45 pm. South Oxfordshire.

irish1967 · 22-12-2009 9:07am

That's a big clump over Mayo/Roscommon/Leitrim ! Any snow coming from it?

Pangea · 22-12-2009 9:07am

Hows things in Letterkenny , much snow i wonder.

Ticktactoe · 22-12-2009 9:10am

Roscommon is covered. Bit of snow but mainly ice and frozen snow! Roads are a disaster.

nacho libre · 22-12-2009 9:12am

hmm i fear mt cranium's forecast for today maybe becoming true as the snow has turned to rain:(

in the past this use to happen regularly, snow would be promised to continue but the showers would just turn to sleet and rain.

owenc · 22-12-2009 9:19am

nacho libre wrote: »

hmm i fear mt cranium's forecast for today maybe becoming true as the snow has turned to rain:(

in the past this use to happen regularly, snow would be promised to continue but the showers would just turn to sleet and rain.

were do you live?

nacho libre · 22-12-2009 9:23am

owenc wrote: »

were do you live?

Mayo. hopefully if the rain gets heavier it might turn back to snow

owenc · 22-12-2009 9:25am

nacho libre wrote: »

Mayo. hopefully if the rain gets heavier it might turn back to snow

ok for a minute i thought you lived in antrim and nearly had a heart
atake!:D

maquiladora · 22-12-2009 9:25am

Met Eireann going for rain in all parts on Christmas Day and further spells of heavy rain on Stephens Day.

WolfeIRE · 22-12-2009 9:26am

nacho libre wrote: »

hmm i fear mt cranium's forecast for today maybe becoming true as the snow has turned to rain:(

in the past this use to happen regularly, snow would be promised to continue but the showers would just turn to sleet and rain.

nacho...you should change your name to 'where do you live'?

-2c here now. Hard freeze here like everywhere else. Gritters were out a few times overnight so roads are much better than yesterday morning. I am on a secondary road.

very encouraged by the latest GFS for tomorrow which shows snow over Clare for 24 hrs or more. I would say we might get 10 hours of rain, 7 hours of drizzle, 6 hrs of sleet, 45 minutes of hail, 10 minutes of mist and 5 minutes of snow. But what a lovely 5 minutes it will be.

EDIT: Next GFS is 9.30 so fingers crossed it improves again

nacho libre · 22-12-2009 9:28am

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann going for rain in all parts on Christmas Day and further spells of heavy rain on Stephens Day.

so they've changed their forecast again already:pac:

leahyl · 22-12-2009 9:28am

I'd be happy for a covering at this stage - just before christmas:)

munsterlegend · 22-12-2009 9:28am

nacho libre wrote: »

Mayo. hopefully if the rain gets heavier it might turn back to snow

i'd say thats likely to happen as well down south tomorrow with that band of precipitation coming from the south. might be snow over high ground.

maquiladora · 22-12-2009 9:29am

nacho libre wrote: »

so they've changed their forecast again already:pac:

"...Christmas day will get milder with a freshening southwest wind and rain will affect all parts during the day. Saturday (St Stephens day) will be cloudy and breezy with spells of heavy rain..."

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Classic Christmas Breakdown.

nacho libre · 22-12-2009 9:30am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

nacho...you should change your name to 'where do you live'?

-2c here now. Hard freeze here like everywhere else. Gritters were out a few times overnight so roads are much better than yesterday morning. I am on a secondary road.

very encouraged by the latest GFS for tomorrow which shows snow over Clare for 24 hrs or more. I would say we might get 10 hours of rain, 7 hours of drizzle, 6 hrs of sleet, 45 minutes of hail, 10 minutes of mist and 5 minutes of snow. But what a lovely 5 minutes it will be.

EDIT: Next GFS is 9.30 so fingers crossed it improves again

i might do. by the way Airplane is a great movie:cool:

munsterlegend · 22-12-2009 9:31am

leahyl wrote: »

I'd be happy for a covering at this stage - just before christmas:)

morning miss leahy - icy in de real capital this morning? not as bad down here as yesterday morning.

WolfeIRE · 22-12-2009 9:32am

munsterlegend wrote: »

icy in de real capital this morning?

Ennis? yes it is

nacho libre · 22-12-2009 9:32am

maquiladora wrote: »

"...Christmas day will get milder with a freshening southwest wind and rain will affect all parts during the day. Saturday (St Stephens day) will be cloudy and breezy with spells of heavy rain..."

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Classic Christmas Breakdown.

hmm
so obviously the idea of the milder air struggling to take a hold has been discounted now, as there is no mention of the rain being perceded by snow even in the north of the country

irish1967 · 22-12-2009 9:33am

I'm watching that lovely big bank of cloud that has circled round the top of Scotland and is heading down our way.

munsterlegend · 22-12-2009 9:33am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Ennis? yes it is

you wish boy!

munsterlegend · 22-12-2009 9:34am

nacho libre wrote: »

hmm
so obviously the idea of the milder air struggling to take a hold has been discounted now, as there is no mention of the rain being perceded by snow even in the north of the country

a lot can change in 24 hours. met eireann in last nights forecast didn't even mention that front moving up north tomorrow.

Deep Easterly · 22-12-2009 9:35am

Must have made one or 2 light snow showers overnight as there is a fresh dusting this morning. Must be still snowing to my north as it looks black. A very wintry and very beautiful morning in all fairness.

-1.2c which seems to be rising quite sharply.

leahyl · 22-12-2009 9:36am

munsterlegend wrote: »

morning miss leahy - icy in de real capital this morning? not as bad down here as yesterday morning.

No the roads are fine this morning (in the city anyway) - nice and frosty though - the view from my office window is nice - all the rooves covered!:D

maquiladora · 22-12-2009 9:37am

-1 here in Waterford and a very festive looking frosty scene. :pac:

Ricky91t · 22-12-2009 9:38am

Morning all,Looks to be freezing outside today!Temps reched -2.2 last night and the temp is currently 0.1.

irish1967 · 22-12-2009 9:38am

leahyl wrote: »

No the roads are fine this morning (in the city anyway) - nice and frosty though - the view from my office window is nice - all the rooves covered!:D

I love how you pronounce roofs down there !! Cant beat the Cork accent !;)

leahyl · 22-12-2009 9:41am

irish1967 wrote: »

I love how you pronounce roofs down there !! Cant beat the Cork accent !;)

that is the correct plural form for roof!!

! So there! Actually i just googled it and you can say either roofs or rooves!;)

irish1967 · 22-12-2009 9:45am

Agreed.. according to the Urban Dictionary

ROOVES:

The plural of roof for people old enough to read the Oxford Dictionary of the English Language, in fact old enough to know that the real Napoleon was not Dynamite or a brandy.
Hoi polloi live under roofs and civilized men live under rooves.

WolfeIRE · 22-12-2009 9:45am

Massive downgrade on that potential snow event for tomorrow in the latest GFS run

Sleet is the best most can expect. There is still a chance of snow tomorrow night along western parts. I think this scenario will all change again int he next run at 3.30pm.

By the way, nobody should get disappointed as things will change.

maquiladora · 22-12-2009 9:46am

06Z GFS is a downgrade for snow potential Wednesday.

Looks like rain for the east, sleet inland and maybe some snow on high ground in the southwest.

Thursday morning look more like rain/sleet than snow too.

nacho libre · 22-12-2009 9:46am

has turned back to snow here - finally!! it's falling at reasonable rate too.:)

Peter · 22-12-2009 9:47am

Getting some good heavy snow from that 'clump' here for the last 45 mins or so. Between this, what didn't thaw yesterday and what it made last night theres easily a few cms on the ground now.

Roads around here have been very bad since last friday nite. They haven't been gritted once, apparently when contacted Roscommon coco basically said they dont have the money to grit out here despite: the road being a national secondary route, at least 2 cars being written off that I know of and on Saturday a CIE bus sliding straight across the road and hitting a parked car.

leahyl · 22-12-2009 9:48am

irish1967 wrote: »

Agreed.. according to the Urban Dictionary

ROOVES:

The plural of roof for people old enough to read the Oxford Dictionary of the English Language, in fact old enough to know that the real Napoleon was not Dynamite or a brandy.
Hoi polloi live under roofs and civilized men live under rooves.

Well excuuuse me! Ya it's easy know i had an excellent education:P:D It'll always be ROOVES to me!

nacho libre · 22-12-2009 9:49am

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS is a downgrade for snow potential Wednesday.

Looks like rain for the east, sleet inland and maybe some snow on high ground in the southwest.

due to the wind track, low ground to the northwest would have the best chance of seeing snow out of that . although the northwest will probably stay fine

ninebeanrows · 22-12-2009 9:52am

What a forecasters nightmare for tomorrow for the east!

Could be a dumping of snow or could be a wet mess!

GFS 6z is no downgrade as far as i can see unless of course you are using stupid snow prediction automatic things which are pointless.

Check the dewpoints.

Again the same..

Dewpoints rise to 1/2c for a time near the coast. For me, they are -3c before the precip arrives and shoot up to 1c then back to 0c and downward on Thursday morning. It is that knife edge and precipitation intensity may be a winning factor.

Very intriguing outlook and i certainly would not envy the Met tonight.

If they mess up could ruin many peoples intended travel arrangements.

I mean the 23rd of December rush hour exodus from Dublin is probably the biggest of the year.

WolfeIRE · 22-12-2009 9:53am

It is predicting snow for the entire east coast now in the late afternoon and evening on xmas eve

maquiladora · 22-12-2009 9:54am

nacho libre wrote: »

due to the wind track, low ground to the northwest would have the best chance of seeing snow out of that . although the northwest will probably stay fine

Yeah looks like the NW will stay dry. It all looks like rain or very marginal for most parts but I'm sure high ground will do well in places.

WolfeIRE · 22-12-2009 9:55am

Weathercheck wrote: »

Check the dewpoints.
.

weather. where is the dewpoints graph on the netweather site? Thanks in advance

munsterlegend · 22-12-2009 9:56am

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS is a downgrade for snow potential Wednesday.

Looks like rain for the east, sleet inland and maybe some snow on high ground in the southwest.

Thursday morning look more like rain/sleet than snow too.

whats it like into the future? any more cold weather after the 26th?

Graces7 · 22-12-2009 9:57am

Looking very dark and heavy towards Town?

Clear and sunny up here; every twig is heavily lined with snow.

The mountains are white and a glory in the sun.

Lane solid snow/ice, but a car went down...

irish1967 wrote: »

I'm watching that lovely big bank of cloud that has circled round the top of Scotland and is heading down our way.

WolfeIRE · 22-12-2009 9:57am

munsterlegend wrote: »

whats it like into the future? any more cold weather after the 26th?

has not got that far yet. still on xmas day

Ricky91t · 22-12-2009 9:58am

What are these GFS things?

irish1967 · 22-12-2009 10:00am

Graces7 wrote: »

Looking very dark and heavy towards Town?

Clear and sunny up here; every twig is heavily lined with snow.

The mountains are white and a glory in the sun.

Lane solid snow/ice, but a car went down...

That big grey cloud is a down over Ballyshannon direction... clear and blue here in town.

Deep Easterly · 22-12-2009 10:00am

nacho libre wrote: »

has turned back to snow here - finally!! it's falling at reasonable rate too.:)

Well done Nacho!

Your shower is doing its best to descend down over me as it is very dark in my northern sky but as usual it just seems to be dissolving as it tracks south.

The sun is low enough to shine under the shower cloud though so as a result the is a very strange orange hue to everything. It just adds to the aesthetics of the morning. Temp continues to rise rapidly though, now up to -0.4c.

22-12-2009 10:01am

Weathercheck wrote: »

What a forecasters nightmare for tomorrow for the east!

Could be a dumping of snow or could be a wet mess!

GFS 6z is no downgrade as far as i can see unless of course you are using stupid snow prediction automatic things which are pointless.

Check the dewpoints.

Again the same..

Dewpoints rise to 1/2c for a time near the coast. For me, they are -3c before the precip arrives and shoot up to 1c then back to 0c and downward on Thursday morning. It is that knife edge and precipitation intensity may be a winning factor.

Very intriguing outlook and i certainly would not envy the Met tonight.

If they mess up could ruin many peoples intended travel arrangements.

I mean the 23rd of December rush hour exodus from Dublin is probably the biggest of the year.

Lamb doyles and higher I'd say in the Dublin area and maybe wet snow for Dundrum across to sandyford,Ballinteer,Rathfranham,Tallaght and areas inbetween.
Wet or not it will settle.

I've seen it snowing in Goatstown in these types of marginal set ups with rainy sleet falling in UCD and of course in town.
I'm expecting rainy sleet here but I havent far to travel to get up to the good stuff I s'pose - about 4 miles to 1000ft asl.

force eleven · 22-12-2009 10:01am

munsterlegend wrote: »

whats it like into the future? any more cold weather after the 26th?

Munster, I know how you feel. Don't you ever feel like we're chasing rainbows, and where to dig for the crock o' gold? It always slips tantalisingly out of reach. *Goes back to looking at GFS model*....

BTW there is a big blob of precipitation heading into the west midlands at the moment, any further reports on how this is progressing? It is dark to my north right now, with the sun shining on my back....

WolfeIRE · 22-12-2009 10:01am

Ricky91t wrote: »

What are these GFS things?

Predictive weather charts. Link here

Graces7 wrote: »

Nothing to do with class etc

That's true because Jonathon Ross pronounces it "Woofs"

Cold Spell Discussion (22/12/09) (Freeze continues across country)

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