Cold Spell Discussion (19/12/09) (Band of Sleet to Snow to push south)

ninebeanrows

A new thread for a new day, it is going to be a very busy one i reckon, full of moaning, groaning, excitement and euphoria for some!

Enjoy the rollercoaster.

Precipitation likely to reach Dublin by around 7pm.

owenc

Weathercheck wrote: »

A new thread for a new day, it is going to be a very busy one i reckon, full of moaning, groaning, excitement and euphoria for some!

Enjoy the rollercoaster.

Precipitation likely to reach Dublin by around 7pm.

when should it reach here?

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

A new thread for a new day, it is going to be a very busy one i reckon, full of moaning, groaning, excitement and euphoria for some!

Enjoy the rollercoaster.

Precipitation likely to reach Dublin by around 7pm.

hope its not rain to sleet..still it will be dark by the time it reaches the south!

maquiladora

No big change on the 06Z for tonights snow. It'll be a nowcasting event anyway so at this stage models arent very useful.

You can see the edge of precipitation just coming into Scotland on the radar as it makes its way south : http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

nacho libre

according to the radio forecast this will be mainly a rain event with just some places on the back edge of the front seeing snow before it clears. apox on these mild sectors:mad:

owenc

nacho libre wrote: »

according to the radio forecast this will be mainly a rain event with just some places on the back edge of the front seeing snow before it clears. apox on these mild sectors:mad:

is anyone even listening to me look at the rain today radar and you will see its all snow heading down from scotland and by the time it reaches here temps will hopeuflly have dropped....

nacho libre

am i right in thinking that it's most likely to stay as rain in the west, while further south and east there is more of a likelihood of the rain turning to snow before it clears?

ltdslipdiff

More bloody rain ! Head for the hills me thinks !!!

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

according to the radio forecast this will be mainly a rain event with just some places on the back edge of the front seeing snow before it clears. apox on these mild sectors:mad:

I thought the mild sector was looking to be quiet small on the charts last night?
Oh well, hopefully Met Eireann just being conservative not to get peoples hopes up.

nacho libre

owenc wrote: »

is anyone even listening to me look at the rain today radar and you will see its all snow heading down from scotland and by the time it reaches here temps will hopeuflly have dropped....

sorry i didn't see your post. though given your location you are possibly more favoured to get snow. whereas down here that's not the case because it has gone the wrong side of marginal.

GavinH

Looking at Rain to day, it looks like the big blob over Scotland is moving in a SE direction. And not due South.

ltdslipdiff

owenc wrote: »

is anyone even listening to me look at the rain today radar and you will see its all snow heading down from scotland and by the time it reaches here temps will hopeuflly have dropped....

I see that too, but that radar has been far from reliable to date... here's hoping I'm wrong though !

maquiladora

GavinH wrote: »

Looking at Rain to day, it looks like the big blob over Scotland is moving in a SE direction. And not due South.

You can see the full band of precipitation better on the satellite : http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

Pangea

I see met eireann have changed their outlook for today , no word of accumlations of 6 cm anymore :rolleyes:
But in saying that just take a read of the outlook for the next week, it really is something else in the lead up to christmas

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

I thought the mild sector was looking to be quiet small on the charts last night?
Oh well, hopefully Met Eireann just being conservative not to get peoples hopes up.

well it was evelyn who said it. she almost seemed downbeat giving the forecast. i hope you're right anyway.
i really couldn't take another letdown...

jambofc

after the first front moves threw with "rain/sleet/snow" and the real snow showers start does it not look like a northern event only with a line from say dundalk in the east to oranmore in the west????

the north looks like it's going to be plastered with the white stuff

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

well it was evelyn who said it. she almost seemed downbeat giving the forecast. i hope you're right anyway.
i really couldn't take another letdown...

Yeah it would be cruel if we went into a 5 or 6 day severe cold spell and the only weather front that is going to move over the country will bring frickin rain! :pac:

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

well it was evelyn who said it. she almost seemed downbeat giving the forecast. i hope you're right anyway.
i really couldn't take another letdown...

We should all take the old approach ,no tv ,no weather forecast ,not expecting anything , just open the door and buckets of snow

Looking good for christmas though

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Dec 2009 to Friday 1 Jan 2010:

It looks likely to be generally unsettled next week with a mixture of clear or brighter spells and showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow across most parts. Some heavier precipitation is likely but across southern areas the precipitation looks more likely to fall as rain or sleet. Cold, especially across northern areas with overnight frosts and icy surfaces in places. Windy at times too making it feel even colder. By next weekend it looks like the unsettled weather is set to continue but with the main sleet and snow risk continuing in the north. Temperatures may recover to near or above normal in parts of the south towards the end of the period but more wintry weather may continue in the north, although this aspect is uncertain.

Pangea

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah it would be cruel if we went into a 5 or 6 day severe cold spell and the only weather front that is going to move over the country will bring frickin rain! :pac:

yeah we have been waiting on this cold spell a week n a half now , keeps getting delayed!
Looked at the bbc map player yoke and it doesnt show much snow for ulster in the next few days.

ninebeanrows

And just to let you know that quite large differences in synoptics past 60hrs mean that 60hrs is FI at this point, shocking stuff.

The placement of those little lows change in macro ways from run to run.

maquiladora

New Met Eireann warning from now until...Christmas Eve?

Weather Warning

Issued at 19 December 2009 - 09:47

Weather Advisory Update

Very cold weather through the weekend and for the early days of next week. A spell of rain and sleet will spread southwards this afternoon with snow on higher ground. Wintry showers of hail and snow will follow by evening. Further snow showers Saturday night through Sunday and for the early days of next week, especially in Connaught, Ulster and west Munster, but some isolated snow showers elsewhere also. Widespread severe night frosts leading to icy roads.

Valid from: 1000 19/12/2009
Valid to: 0000 24/12/2009

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

Supercell

From the satellite loop - http://sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop , looks to me like the heavier stuff is clipping Scotland the the weaker stuff is going to reach Ireland later.
Unless that peps up i think its just going to be cloudy here with little if any precip in the east.

force eleven

Anyone thinking it is going to snow with this next belt of weather, may be disappointed, we have a brief milder pulse of air ahead of the front with the arctic air digging in behind. I'm more interested in it getting through and the rain out of the way, with the wintry stuff following behind.

Pangea

maquiladora wrote: »

New Met Eireann warning from now until...Christmas Eve?



http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

Nice!
Just seen the bbc forecast on its website, it said there will be lots of snow showers in north ireland tomorrow.

jambofc

jambofc wrote: »

after the first front moves threw with "rain/sleet/snow" and the real snow showers start does it not look like a northern event only with a line from say dundalk in the east to oranmore in the west????

the north looks like it's going to be plastered with the white stuff

I'd imagine you can include Limerick,Clare,Kerry and most of cork in that especially west cork.
The normal places that get atlantic showers really,the fact that they will be snow doesn't discriminate where an Artic sourced westerly sends them.

maquiladora

force eleven wrote: »

Anyone thinking it is going to snow with this next belt of weather, may be disappointed, we have a brief milder pulse of air ahead of the front with the arctic air digging in behind. I'm more interested in it getting through and the rain out of the way, with the wintry stuff following behind.

Latest weather warning seems to have it starting as rain/sleet then turning to hail/snow later. Yeah the north will do well from all those showers that'll be coming along behind the front.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

We should all take the old approach ,no tv ,no weather forecast ,not expecting anything , just open the door and buckets of snow

Looking good for christmas though

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Dec 2009 to Friday 1 Jan 2010:

It looks likely to be generally unsettled next week with a mixture of clear or brighter spells and showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow across most parts. Some heavier precipitation is likely but across southern areas the precipitation looks more likely to fall as rain or sleet. Cold, especially across northern areas with overnight frosts and icy surfaces in places. Windy at times too making it feel even colder. By next weekend it looks like the unsettled weather is set to continue but with the main sleet and snow risk continuing in the north. Temperatures may recover to near or above normal in parts of the south towards the end of the period but more wintry weather may continue in the north, although this aspect is uncertain.

nice to read but after todays downgrade i'm not getting carried away- at least until another hour when my annoyance at todays downgrade subsides:pac:

as usual scotland seems to be the place to be today if you are a snow lover. still i suppose half the fun is the rollercoaster of emotion involved in living in a country surrounded by warm water which can feck things over so easily.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

nice to read but after todays downgrade i'm not getting carried away- at least until another hour when my annoyance at todays downgrade subsides:pac:

as usual scotland seems to be the place to be today if you are a snow lover. still i suppose half the fun is the rollercoaster of emotion involved in living in a country surrounded by warm water which can feck things over so easily.

Nacho this time tomoro Im sure u will see some snow

Supercell

Supercell wrote: »

From the satellite loop - http://sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop , looks to me like the heavier stuff is clipping Scotland the the weaker stuff is going to reach Ireland later.
Unless that peps up i think its just going to be cloudy here with little if any precip in the east.

The latest BBC news 24 forecast with their usually fairly accurate rainfall predictive sequence [to rob Eveyln's words] has most of the precip sliding east from the isle of man northwards...thereby bringing it into Northern England and out into the north sea.
They have a finger of it through Ireland going all the way south with back edge snow.

It's time to monitor dewpoints but I'd be surprised if it wasn't a short but fully snow event for the higher ground [including Annamoe] and well inland very adjacent to higher ground.
Sleet for the rest of us and maybe back edge snow but not much.

Then it's into the snow showers and the usual suspects are West Ulster but including all of ulster,heaviest in the west eg Donegal.
Connaught especially Mayo and sligo and then all down into west munster where the atlantic when it has been fed from the artic really can deliver potentially some monster showers.

I'd expect some showers to be strong enough to penetrate right into the midlands and East but if they give snow cover there,you can expect several inches at lower levels further west.

Graces7

Something has fallen up here in the night, then frozen solid; bitterly cold.. Taking the dogs out to see the skies.. the mountains are lightly dusted with white.. Our Donegal postman was on time.. cats are in!!

Back later...

force eleven

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest weather warning seems to have it starting as rain/sleet then turning to hail/snow later. Yeah the north will do well from all those showers that'll be coming along behind the front.

I think that front is weakening, and as someone already mentioned, the weaker portion is likely to come southwards over us, with the arctic plunge returning. Hopefully little or no rain, to keep the ground drier for possible snowfall accumalations later on

That northwesterly will blow those snow showers to all, but it will indeed be the usual northern and western spots most favoured by this time tomorrow.

Pangea

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055766259

Get em boys!

owenc

Pangea wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055766259

Get em boys!

well just to let everyone know anything that has fallen today has been of sleet and not rain so maybe thats a higher chance>

nacho libre

what would be best for nearly all of us is if there was a polar low in the next day or two. no poxy mild sectors to contend with, and places further south, that are less likely to see the showers, would have some snow.. it has been too long since our last polar low.

Tactical

Light rain shower here in West Limerick.

Skies are mainly cloudy with the sun peeking through a clearing low in the sky.

No idea of the temperature as I don't have a thermometer. Perhaps I can look at the one in the car to get a trend.

owenc

all this is making me think we are just going to get sleet tonight after waiting a full week. what a disapointment

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055766259

Get em boys!

all those blasphemers should be banned indefinitely from boards.ie.:p

eskimocat

Well in Dromahair, there is a lethal black ice, its one of the most solid, slippy shiny black ice I have experienced since i moved here, 5 years ago. NO SNOW

Just following the chat for this morning and realise we are on the downward run of the roller coaster, and i am just hoping that its not the ride coming to an end but just getting ready to seriously climb to new heights for this evening or even tomorrow. Is it the cold we are missing now, have i picked that up right? if we got a polar low then it would be game on??
Thanks

kleefarr

Kilkenny City outskirts..

Temperature: -0.2 °C
Dew Point: -0.5 °C

No snow on the radar, but woke up to a thin white covering which is still here and probably will stay, as long as the temperature doesn't go up any more.
Clouds look like they could hold some snow. Fingers crossed.

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055766259

Get em boys!

That forum is pre modded like pi.
You are not allowed to post an anti rant it's in the rules so your post won't be approved.

nacho libre wrote:

and places further south, that are less likely to see the showers

Just to reiterate-places in the west on the far south of the island will see heavy showers of snow after that front eg west cork and kerry .
They have a far better chance of snow showers in a wnw or an NW flow than places way further north [that are further east and away from the atlantic] because of proximity to the atlantic,the king of shower making.
Of course the atlantic usually makes rain showers but not so with the source of the air flowing over it and into the entire western sea board from Derry down to west cork this time.
It *could* but I'm not guarantee'ing [just saying theres a highish probability in my view] get very similar to the white Xmas they got a few years ago.

maquiladora

A nasty GFS run in FI....severe winds and very heavy rain at 192 hours : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Horrible!

Good job FI is about72 hours at the moment :pac:

owenc

Deleted User wrote: »

That forum is pre modded like pi.
You are not allowed to post an anti rant it's in the rules so your post won't be approved.Just to reiterate-places in the west on the far south of the island will see heavy showers of snow after that front eg west cork and kerry .
They have a far better chance of snow showers in a wnw or an NW flow than places way further north [that are further east and away from the atlantic] because of proximity to the atlantic,the king of shower making.
Of course the atlantic usually makes rain showers but not so with the source of the air flowing over it and into the entire western sea board from Derry down to west cork this time.
It *could* but I'm not guarantee'ing [just saying theres a highish probability in my view] get very similar to the white Xmas they got a few years ago.

so would could get snow afterall..:D

munsterlegend

Deleted User wrote: »

That forum is pre modded like pi.
You are not allowed to post an anti rant it's in the rules so your post won't be approved.Just to reiterate-places in the west on the far south of the island will see heavy showers of snow after that front eg west cork and kerry .
They have a far better chance of snow showers in a wnw or an NW flow than places way further north [that are further east and away from the atlantic] because of proximity to the atlantic,the king of shower making.
Of course the atlantic usually makes rain showers but not so with the source of the air flowing over it and into the entire western sea board from Derry down to west cork this time.
It *could* but I'm not guarantee'ing [just saying theres a highish probability in my view] get very similar to the white Xmas they got a few years ago.

suppose we'll just have to wait and see till later. usually such showers come well inland.

roryc1

Looking at SAT 24 is appers the heavy presip in that front might miss us completely, but there are some heavy showers for the north and west following fast behind it

nacho libre

well a lot of the country- but particularly the north and north west should get sleet and snow showers after the front clear through. the winds should help to push the showers well inland too. i mentioned a polar low because it's almost a guarantee of a widespread 3- 4 hour snow event, whereby even places in the very south of the country could get snow- which is usually not the case in an arctic airflow setup.

Pangea

People are let down today, met eireann said up to 6 cms of snow in accumlations for today , what happened to that?

Pangea

Deleted User wrote: »

That forum is pre modded like pi.
You are not allowed to post an anti rant it's in the rules so your post won't be approved..

I wad joking

holly1

What happened to Leahyl:(,did someone frighten her off.I miss her and her enthusiasm:).

maquiladora

roryc1 wrote: »

Looking at SAT 24 is appers the heavy presip in that front might miss us completely, but there are some heavy showers for the north and west following fast behind it

This would be at 12Z today

owenc

Pangea wrote: »

People are let down today, met eireann said up to 6 cms of snow in accumlations for today , what happened to that?

scotland probably snatched it all :mad::mad:

Tactical

Deleted User wrote: »

Just to reiterate-places in the west on the far south of the island will see heavy showers of snow after that front eg west cork and kerry .
They have a far better chance of snow showers in a wnw or an NW flow than places way further north [that are further east and away from the atlantic] because of proximity to the atlantic,the king of shower making.

It *could* but I'm not guarantee'ing [just saying theres a highish probability in my view] get very similar to the white Xmas they got a few years ago.

You hear that WolfeIRE & Leahyl :D:D

Fingers crossed.