Recession is over - stop beating the beards

Rujib1

This is from the Irish Times, not that Indo rag ........ so it must be correct, musn't it


Ireland technically out of recession
CHARLIE TAYLORGDP grew slightly during the third quarter but the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has urged caution on calling an end to recession

The latest Quarterly National Accounts, which were published this morning, indicate that on a seasonally adjusted basis there was a 0.3 per cent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from July through to September.

On an annual basis, GDP fell by 7.4 per cent in the year to the end of October, compared to a 7.9 per cent decline in the preceding quarter.

Technically, given that the definition of recession is two quarters in a row of falling GDP, this means that Ireland has now exited recession.

However, at a press conference earlier today, assistant director general of the CSO Bill Keating refused to call an end to the recession, pointing out that much of the rise in GDP was attributed to profits from multinationals based in Ireland.

Whether Ireland was out of recession or not was " a matter of semantics", Mr Keating said.

"The general picture shows that on a seasonally adjusted basis there is a levelling off in GDP but GNP continues to decline, albeit at a slower pace than it has in previous quarters. Contributing to the GDP increase in a fairly major way was growth in the multinational sector," he added.

GDP is the international method of calculating economic decline but in Ireland's case, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and other local bodies prefer to focus on GNP (Gross National Product) a measure which strips out multinational profits, much of which usually leave the country.

According to CSO, profits declared here by foreign-owned enterprises increased by €1,054 million during the year ending October 31st 2009.

During the third quarter Gross National Product (GNP) showed a decline of 1.4 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the year to the end of October 2009, GNP was 11.3 per cent lower.

Alan McQuaid, economist at stockbroking firm Bloxham said given that international commentators put so much emphasis on quarterly changes in GDP, we shouldn’t downplay the third quarter increase. He said we should take some consolation that on this basis, Ireland came out of recession ahead of the UK.

"Overall, we continue to believe that the Irish economy is making progress and is heading in the right direction," said Mr McQuaid. "While GDP is set to contract by around 7.5 per cent in real terms in 2009, we still think the average fall in national output could be less than 1 per cent next year."

A breakdown of the latest CSO figures show that consumer spending was 7.3 per cent lower in the third quarter of 2009, compared to the same three-month period a year earlier.

Captial investment declined by 35 per cent on an annual basis while net exports were 2,813 million higher than a year earlier.

Over the year the volume of output of industry decreased by 9.6 per cent. Within this the output of the construction sector fell by 34.4 per cent.

Output of distribution, transport and communications was down 9 per cent on an annual basis, while output of other services was 3.4 per cent lower, the figures show.

Commenting on the quarterly figures, Ibec senior economist Fergal O'Brien said the latest data shows the economy is beginning to stabilise.

"In terms of the pace of contraction in the Irish economy, the worst is now clearly behind us. Most sectors of activity are showing signs of stabilisation, with the exception of the construction sector, which continued to lurch downwards in the third quarter," he said. "Today’s numbers do not change our view that GDP will fall by about 7.5 per cent this year and will drop on an annual basis again in 2010. We can now see some light at the end of the tunnel, however, and the economy should begin to grow again around the middle of next year.

Sleepy

Semantics is right. GNP is still dropping, we're far from having a canoe, never mind a paddle...

Rujib1

Sleepy wrote: »

Semantics is right. GNP is still dropping, we're far from having a canoe, never mind a paddle...

Hey, the glass is half full, not half empty. What's all this poor mouth figairy, with half of ye. It's good to be alive. We never died a winter yet :P

Amhran Nua

Rujib1 wrote: »

Hey, the glass is half full, not half empty.

Which doesn't mean much as we need the proverbial entirely full glass to achieve anything.

Has anyone figured out where this growth in the economy is meant to come from, or are we relying entirely on the US pharmas to replace construction?

Sleepy

At a wild swing in the dark: Windows 7?

AlekSmart

What's all this poor mouth figairy,

Now there`s a word I have`nt heard in years....a favorite of My late mothers and one she used in the context of describing somebody doing something nonsensical or having a hissy-fit.

Is it from the midlands region ???

Rujib1

AlekSmart wrote: »

What's all this poor mouth figairy,

Now there`s a word I have`nt heard in years....a favorite of My late mothers and one she used in the context of describing somebody doing something nonsensical or having a hissy-fit.

Is it from the midlands region ???

The Banner county

Diarmuid

Sleepy wrote: »

At a wild swing in the dark: Windows 7?

I'd say it's a bigger picture reason. Worldwide outlook is brighter so the multinationals are seeing a pickup in demand.

gurramok

Why didn't you dig deeper to the truth OP?

GNP is what matters in Ireland's figures.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1217/economy.html

rte wrote:

A breakdown showed that consumer spending remained weak, with a fall of 7.3% compared with a year earlier, while capital investment slumped 35%. Industrial production was down 9.6%, with the construction part of this dropping by 34.4%.

Thank zod we have MNC's still here.

whatnext

Recession Me AR$E -- this is a pre boom era:D:D:D

New years resolution - Getting up earlier and working harder.

Might get to keep hold of me gaff that way.:eek:

Idbatterim

ha ha! out of recession! yeah thats a good one! Ill be going down to the bank tomorow looking for my 500k! 400k for an apartment in Meath and 100k for the new Beemer! anything thinking of emigrating? you dont need to now! to those 500k on the dole, youll be back living the celtic tiger lifestyle within weeks! That is actually a rediculously misleading headline! Sure if were so sure things are back on track why not reverse the 4 billion in cuts?

greendom

Hoorah, the Celtic Tiger wasn't dead, just having a bit of breather

whatnext

greendom wrote: »

Hoorah, the Celtic Tiger wasn't dead, just having a bit of breather

A sort of "Cat Nap"?

Dirk Gently

Relying on MNC profits to "kinda" technically not still be in recession. Not good tbh. I look forward to a day when MNC's are seen as a welcome boost to an already thriving indigenous economy, and not over relied on to employ our work force.

greendom

whatnext wrote: »

A sort of "Cat Nap"?

Absolutely and a jolly well deserved one too

T "real deal" J

I saw that today too. I sent the author an email back.

"On an annual basis, GDP fell by 7.4 per cent in the year to the end of October, compared to a 7.9 per cent decline in the preceding quarter".

This is meaningless. The rate of economic contraction has slowed? So what.

"The latest Quarterly National Accounts, which were published this morning, indicate that on a seasonally adjusted basis there was a 0.3 per cent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from July through to September"

from a 4-12 week period (not specifically stated) on a "seasonally adjusted basis" (?) GDP grew by 0.3%. Again so what.

I'm not suprised garbage like this makes headlines. It is ireland after all.

johnnyskeleton

1) GNP fell.

2) The figures are seasonally adjusted, non-seasonally adjusted GDP still fell. So not really out of the recession, just relatively-out-of-the-recession-compared-to-last-year.

3) Most of the increases are due to increased exports (MNC profits) vs. imports (clothes etc) and increased government borrowing (spending) on social welfare.

4) Government borrowing (spending) will decrease GDP & GNP by at least 2.3% next year all other things being equal.

5) ERSI predicts further job losses next year.

6) Do you really believe the CSO anymore?

ragg

sweet, cant wait to get back to double digit payrises, next year

Mr.Micro

GDP grew by 0.3%. Wow as much as that. It was probably helped by all the people filling up to go up north to shop. Still it will be big new news for Lenny and Biffo to shout about as the sign of FF policies working and the green shoots of recovery.

Amhran Nua

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Still it will be big new news for Lenny and Biffo to shout about as the sign of FF policies working and the green shoots of recovery.

What policies, the first sign of any real action was last Wednesday, and they almost didn't go through with that. Won't stop them shouting though...

SkepticOne

I would be wary of the GDP figures in Ireland given our reliance on foreign multinationals making use of our favourable corporation tax. A pick up in GDP in Ireland may not mean much as far as improvement for the ordinary person; it may simply mean more profits are being booked through an Irish subsidiary of a foreign company.

nesf

Sensible analysis by Karl Whelan here: http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/12/17/ireland-out-of-recession/

Honestly, am not surprised in the slightest. Getting GDP positive was the easy task, getting GNP positive was always going to be the real challenge for the country.

Mr.Micro

Amhran Nua wrote: »

What policies, the first sign of any real action was last Wednesday, and they almost didn't go through with that. Won't stop them shouting though...

That's my point any positive news will as a result FF policies ie none in fact, or at least nothing coherent, wait for the rest of the world etc.

MI5

Forgive me for thinking that a majority of people on this topic, seem to have a pathological tendancy, to look on the down side!!!!! It's pretty plain that there is some inkling of good news in the statistics. Not saying the recession is over, but there is some improvement in at least apart of the economy.
So, drop the bah humbug, mindset. Maybe the fact that you have all been gorging on a feast of public service meat, has effected your brains.

Lay off the public service for a while, take an early morning walk in the clear frosty air, look on the bright side, switch off the computers, leave Boards until 2010, dont read the Indo, selectively read the Times, have a few hot toddies, go easy on the turkey and come back nest year to a slightly brighter economic outlook.

Mise le meas.

MI5

View

clown bag wrote: »

Relying on MNC profits to "kinda" technically not still be in recession. Not good tbh. I look forward to a day when MNC's are seen as a welcome boost to an already thriving indigenous economy, and not over relied on to employ our work force.

Don't knock it. It worked in the post-Dot Com recession when the sales of Viagra produced by Pfizer (?) in Cork meant the economy didn't go into recession.

Right now, the headline international investors are reading is "Ireland out of recession" ....

md23040

Diarmuid wrote: »

Worldwide outlook is brighter so the multinationals are seeing a pickup in demand.

The worldwide economy is brighter. Really? The great debt unwind is only 50% through. Have a look at the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of world trade. Presently BDI is trading in the 3152 to 3712 range, from a high of 11,600 two years ago. The BDI measures of sea cargo freight and even present numbers are skewed as a result of many companies replenishing low stock inventories.

Also, so far Ireland has only been window dressing its public finances, serious issues are being ignored for political expediency.

My call is a double dip worldwide recession, with some analysts expecting stocks to slump back to September 2008 levels. If you seen the fractional lending charts of the Fed it would truly scare you.

The debt deleverages of government, companies and individuals are going to drag on and on and on. Irelands up to its neck in debt, in depression and the future grim.

TetsuoHashimoto

Sleepy wrote:

Semantics is right. GNP is still dropping, we're far from having a canoe, never mind a paddle...

10 years of stagnation on its way, welcome to Tokyo's lost years

md23040

TetsuoHashimoto wrote: »

10 19 years of stagnation on its way, welcome to Tokyo's lost years

Japan had an asset deflationary depression, exactly what is presently occurring globally. Whenever economic stimulus packages in America, Germany, China etc dry up though lack of funds (except China - although it needs a GDP growth rate of 7% to contain its model without causing unemployment), then it will be the emperor without his clothes stuff.

The economic growth (or monetary stimulation) spurred by the Fed following the dotcom bubble fed the largest ponzi scheme in the world, with Ireland's own pyramid scheme being the greatest.

ragg

yeah yeah yeah, we're all ****ed, matt cooper told us so.

Double digit payrises again next year, Bring.It.ON :cool:

rumour

MI5 wrote: »

Forgive me for thinking that a majority of people on this topic, seem to have a pathological tendancy, to look on the down side!!!!! It's pretty plain that there is some inkling of good news in the statistics. Not saying the recession is over, but there is some improvement in at least apart of the economy.
So, drop the bah humbug, mindset. Maybe the fact that you have all been gorging on a feast of public service meat, has effected your brains.

Lay off the public service for a while, take an early morning walk in the clear frosty air, look on the bright side, switch off the computers, leave Boards until 2010, dont read the Indo, selectively read the Times, have a few hot toddies, go easy on the turkey and come back nest year to a slightly brighter economic outlook.

Mise le meas.

MI5

Are you a politician by any chance???

Flamed Diving

Sleepy wrote: »

GNP is still dropping.

At a decreasing rate since Q1. Perhaps you do not understand what this means. Think of a bright red car, driving very fast (200mph) at point w, then at point x (220mph) measure an increased rate of velocity, later we measure the velocity (190mph) at point y. We find that the car is still moving forward, but at a decreasing rate. We measure velocity (180mph) again at point z and find that the car is still moving forward, but at a decreasing rate.

We began with a car travelling fast (economy falling), then travelling faster (economy falling, and faster), then slowing (economy still falling, but at slower rate) then slowing some more (you get the idea, I hope).

Understand now?

gurramok wrote: »

Why didn't you dig deeper to the truth OP?

GNP is what matters in Ireland's figures.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1217/economy.html


Thank zod we have MNC's still here.

True, but it is still falling at a decreasing rate.

T real deal J wrote: »

I saw that today too. I sent the author an email back.

"On an annual basis, GDP fell by 7.4 per cent in the year to the end of October, compared to a 7.9 per cent decline in the preceding quarter".

This is meaningless. The rate of economic contraction has slowed? So what.

"The latest Quarterly National Accounts, which were published this morning, indicate that on a seasonally adjusted basis there was a 0.3 per cent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from July through to September"

from a 4-12 week period (not specifically stated) on a "seasonally adjusted basis" (?) GDP grew by 0.3%. Again so what.

I'm not suprised garbage like this makes headlines. It is ireland after all.

It surprises me that garbage like this comes out of peoples minds. Remember the big red car above? It's slowing down... down...

TetsuoHashimoto wrote: »

10 years of stagnation on its way, welcome to Tokyo's lost years

No, this is not the same as Japan's problem. We are not directly comparable, the relative size of our economies and completely different monetary system, for starters.

md23040 wrote: »

Japan had an asset deflationary depression, exactly what is presently occurring globally. Whenever economic stimulus packages in America, Germany, China etc dry up though lack of funds (except China - although it needs a GDP growth rate of 7% to contain its model without causing unemployment), then it will be the emperor without his clothes stuff.

The economic growth (or monetary stimulation) spurred by the Fed following the dotcom bubble fed the largest ponzi scheme in the world, with Ireland's own pyramid scheme being the greatest.

A little evidence to back these assertions would be really nice.

rumour

And that is nothing compared to what they are at now. Infact they've printed so much money all it is doing is feeding asset inflation on the markets.

But the tidal waves of new money have to wash up somewhere, all this cash can do is devalue wealth measured in dollars, euro's and sterling. Cheap way of paying the bills i guess but inflation looms and that means doubly high interest rates.

The headaches for the government are not gone yet.

ragg

no flamd your missing the point, the world has ended 10 times over this year and it will continue to end forever and ever :rolleyes:

Flamed Diving

ragg wrote: »

no flamd your missing the point, the world has ended 10 times over this year and it will continue to end forever and ever :rolleyes:

Ah, I should have known...

Dirk Gently

View wrote: »

Don't knock it. It worked in the post-Dot Com recession when the sales of Viagra produced by Pfizer (?) in Cork meant the economy didn't go into recession.

Right now, the headline international investors are reading is "Ireland out of recession" ....

I'm not knocking MNC's. I'm knocking the fact that our economy was pretty much based on MNC's , construction, and construction boom dependant services, easy credit and not really a whole lot else. Take away construction, the services decline and we're left with MNC's, which aren't in any way stable due to the fact that they're more of a travelling circus than solid home grown industry.

I'm glad mnc's are here providing good jobs but any or all can pull out at any time. It's a very shaky foundation to build an economy on.

brendansmith

MI5 wrote: »

Forgive me for thinking that a majority of people on this topic, seem to have a pathological tendancy, to look on the down side!!!!! It's pretty plain that there is some inkling of good news in the statistics. Not saying the recession is over, but there is some improvement in at least apart of the economy.
So, drop the bah humbug, mindset. Maybe the fact that you have all been gorging on a feast of public service meat, has effected your brains.

Lay off the public service for a while, take an early morning walk in the clear frosty air, look on the bright side, switch off the computers, leave Boards until 2010, dont read the Indo, selectively read the Times, have a few hot toddies, go easy on the turkey and come back nest year to a slightly brighter economic outlook.

Mise le meas.

MI5

This is how it works:

Everybody was enjoying the boom :rolleyes:
The the recession hit....but of course everyone apparently knew this was going to happen :rolleyes:
When news starts coming of the worst being over and Irelands is recovering everyone says that iys rubbish and thing will get worse :rolleyes:
When the economy recovers everyone will have known that was going to happen too down to the exact day :rolleyes:

People in Ireland know everything. always. Even if they say the opposite of what actually happens they still knew what was going to happen.

Amhran Nua

Flamed Diving wrote: »

At a decreasing rate since Q1. Perhaps you do not understand what this means. Think of a bright red car, driving very fast (200mph) at point w, then at point x (220mph) measure an increased rate of velocity, later we measure the velocity (190mph) at point y. We find that the car is still moving forward, but at a decreasing rate. We measure velocity (180mph) again at point z and find that the car is still moving forward, but at a decreasing rate.

Eh we can't run the country on MNCs alone, we haven't enough of them by any stretch of the imagination. If the economy is to return to a healthy state, we need to have something to replace the huge swathe that construction represented, and thus far the government has not produced any such ideas. The car might only be at 50mph by the time it hits the wall, but I still wouldn't want to be sitting in it.

So what will replace construction? And please don't say construction.

In addition the MNCs are being largely buoyed up by government stimulus plans in other countries, if the international economy isn't moving under its own steam by the time those run out, as md23040 quite correctly says, we're in deep trouble indeed.

Flamed Diving

brendansmith wrote: »

This is how it works:

Everybody was enjoying the boom :rolleyes:
The the recession hit....but of course everyone apparently knew this was going to happen :rolleyes:
When news starts coming of the worst being over and Irelands is recovering everyone says that iys rubbish and thing will get worse :rolleyes:
When the economy recovers everyone will have known that was going to happen too down to the exact day :rolleyes:

People in Ireland know everything. always. Even if they say the opposite of what actually happens they still knew what was going to happen.

I knew you were going to post that. :rolleyes:

Sleepy

Flamed Diving wrote: »

At a decreasing rate since Q1. Perhaps you do not understand what this means. Think of a bright red car, driving very fast (200mph) at point w, then at point x (220mph) measure an increased rate of velocity, later we measure the velocity (190mph) at point y. We find that the car is still moving forward, but at a decreasing rate. We measure velocity (180mph) again at point z and find that the car is still moving forward, but at a decreasing rate.

We began with a car travelling fast (economy falling), then travelling faster (economy falling, and faster), then slowing (economy still falling, but at slower rate) then slowing some more (you get the idea, I hope).

Understand now?

No need for the condescension. Your analogy is misleading. Economies don't grow or shrink at a consistent rate. They're not mechanical objects which obey laws of physics.

GNP is still falling, that it's falling at a slower rate than last quarter does not mean next quarter will see a slower fall. It may hint towards it, but it's far from a certainty (unlike your example of a car with it's brakes applied).

Fundamentally our economy is still in a very bad place. We have lots of unemployment (which is also still growing, though again at a decreasing rate), public services are costing us far too much compared to our tax revenues, we have no control over our monetary policy and our government isn't doing much (anything?) to get the unemployed back into the workforce.

The MNC's are a great thing for Ireland but Amhran Nua makes a very valid point, they can't all be relied on to still be here next year. We need home-grown industry producing goods and / or services which can be sold abroad. Have you seen anything from this government which suggests they're even trying to promote this?

I don't have the answers but I'm not going to cheer the emporer because he's managed to be wearing a string vest underneath his 'new clothes'.

egan007

We don't want to hear about this positive news grumble grumble.

If it was the other way around and we were in growth and just dropped into a .3% decline we'd all be Emigrating.

Sleepy

It's not that egan007, it's that we don't want the government (or the media) spinning a fairly small positive indicator into much more than it is. Statistical juggling won't improve things, action will.

Firefox10

Sleepy wrote: »

It's not that egan007, it's that we don't want the government (or the media) spinning a fairly small positive indicator into much more than it is. Statistical juggling won't improve things, action will.

I heard Mary Coughlan on the news yesterday and she said the government is being very cautious about the numbers. Any positive indication was to be welcomed. Gain Confidence and move forward.

Sleepy

Or examine the root cause for the positive indication, realise it's not a platform for sustainable growth and pursue better options?

Mary Coughlan can't even create a permanent job in the public sector by leaving her old post to do her current one one. Can we really rely on her to create new ones in the private sector?

irishcarbomb2k

I agree this is not fantastic news and we are relying on companies from MNC to stay here. This is really not where we want to be however there is hope. MNC's are an important contributor to the economy, not just for the simple fact they employ thousands of people but because of the off shoots. People working for Facebook, Google etc are working in some of the most profitable, forward thinking and technologically advanced companies in the world. They learn skills they can apply to set up business here.
We need these companies, not just for the revenue they produce but also the skills they can provide. Who knows that today some person is sitting in google at their desk and comes up with the next big thing!!
Don't forget, we do have indiginous industries. We have some of the best online games company's in the World and look at the success Havoc has had around the world. We are also one of the largest manufacturers of CD's in the world. (from a reliable source) We have the skills, we need people to take the risks. We need a thriving entrepenaural workforce. We need to review and change our bankruptcy laws that will allow people to take risks. If they pay off we could be extremely successful.
If I had my way I would incorporate the dept of transport and communications together and create a dept of transport and vital infrastructure. Make it law that anywhere in the country that is requiring sewage, water, roads, electricity etc, the moment a digger opens the ground, Fibre cable is also put down. We need advanced communications technology. BMW and Mercedes are launching broadband technology in their cars. In the US they have cars that when they are involved in an accident, if the driver does not respond, the car calls emergency services and has a GPS chip built in which in turn sends to the emergency services the exact location of the car. We can come up with innovative technologies like this. Look at google goggles. You put a poster in your business window with a barcode and when you point your android phone or iphone it will automatically update on your phone the business, contact details, and anything else you want to list. For example, if your a restaurant, you can post your up to date menu so people know what your offering by just pointing your phone. Think of the applications. The future is about this, creativity and technology and we can do it. We had the best authors, actors and musicians, we can do the same for technology and innovation. I really think we need to start thinking outside the box. Construction of houses is gone, lets close the book on it, learn and move on.
We made mistakes, get rid of the people who oversaw these and move on with the knowledge we cannot do it again. We should be cautious and we should know that this economy is very fragile but seriously, if you feel that its the end of the road, then it most likely will be, but if we think it will be better, then lets make it better. I have no affiliation to any political party, I used to be a director of a company and we had to close it down but you know what, I'm not phased. Lets get optimistic and make this the turning point. I'm personally really tired of listening to what could have been and blaming everyone. We have a 'democracy', we are not at war. I have lived in the US, I have lived in the UK and personally, there is no where else I'd rather live than here in Ireland despite the weather. Time for revolution.

Daithinski

View wrote: »

Right now, the headline international investors are reading is "Ireland out of recession" ....

Shít, I hope they don't stumble across boards.ie

We'd be rightly screwed then.

Update...



I think the international investors must read boards.ie after all. AIB's share price has fallen from 1.30 to about 1.08 in the last five days.

Flamed Diving

Sleepy wrote: »

No need for the condescension. Your analogy is misleading. Economies don't grow or shrink at a consistent rate. They're not mechanical objects which obey laws of physics.

GNP is still falling, that it's falling at a slower rate than last quarter does not mean next quarter will see a slower fall. It may hint towards it, but it's far from a certainty (unlike your example of a car with it's brakes applied).

*Groan*

Did you even look at the report, or did you just lazily read the Irish Times article and continued to mope about the place, blaming everyone? Both GDP and GNP have been falling at decreasing rates for two quarters in a row now.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/economy/current/qna.pdf

As much as you would hate for this to happen, there does appear to be a trend towards a slowing in the fall, at least. All people want on this forum is failure, isn't it? It's actually depressing.

Sleepy wrote: »

Fundamentally our economy is still in a very bad place. We have lots of unemployment (which is also still growing, though again at a decreasing rate)

Unemployment always lags GDP/GNP figures. This is well known among people who have studied economics.

Sleepy wrote: »

public services are costing us far too much compared to our tax revenues

Do we not have a government who is addressing this? Did I miss something in the last budget? Yes, they could have gone further, perhaps they should have, but they are walking a tightrope with this thing. I would cut gradually, rather than big IMF-style slices.

Sleepy wrote: »

we have no control over our monetary policy

Why? So we could devalue? That's the new one, right? I have already dealt with this extensively on the McWilliams (ginger populist muppet) thread on this very topic, I suggest you read why that move would be suicidal there.

Sleepy wrote: »

and our government isn't doing much (anything?) to get the unemployed back into the workforce.

I'm not sure there is anything they can do, in this regard. They were moronic enough not to take the economic prescription, which is to save when the times are good, and spend when the times are bad. Some less educated people might say 'well, why aren't they spending now?!?', well unfortunately one must use the savings from the previous period to do this, unless you want to deficit spend your way out. This is all well and good, when you are able to pull it off, but we are clearly not in that place now. The best we can hope for is the world economy to recover, and FDI to start slushing around again, which seems very likely now.

Sleepy wrote: »

The MNC's are a great thing for Ireland but Amhran Nua makes a very valid point, they can't all be relied on to still be here next year. We need home-grown industry producing goods and / or services which can be sold abroad. Have you seen anything from this government which suggests they're even trying to promote this?

I am interested in hearing your suggestions on what Ireland could produce, and compete on a world market with, and could employ the 10s of thousands that you undoubtedly have in mind. AFAIK, Enterprise Ireland does provide grants for SMEs, and continue to do so, or at least until this year, when I was recently working one that was a recipient. They cannot afford to shelter large industries until they develop enough to compete (if ever), and besides, if they did that, you would be the first one on here complaining about these peoples "cushy jobs being protected while you have no protection". Me. Me. Me.

Sleepy wrote: »

I don't have the answers but I'm not going to cheer the emporer because he's managed to be wearing a string vest underneath his 'new clothes'.

I really hate those stupid little sayings. They are a poor substitute for coherent argument and an attempt to sound clever. I am unimpressed.

Flamed Diving

Sleepy wrote: »

Statistical juggling.

Translation: I don't understand it, therefore it must be wrong.

ardmacha

I think the international investors must read boards.ie after all. AIB's share price has fallen from 1.30 to about 1.08 in the last five days.

More likely they were listening to Patrick Honahan musing that they banks should take a bigger haircut on NAMA and that they would end up nationalised.

Amhran Nua

Firefox10 wrote: »

I heard Mary Coughlan on the news yesterday and she said the government is being very cautious about the numbers. Any positive indication was to be welcomed. Gain Confidence and move forward.

Move forward to what, it took till last Wednesday for the government to take any sort of action at all, the idea that they have some sort of a coherent vision for strong growth in Ireland or even a blind notion what they are doing is laughable, to put it mildly.

Flamed Diving wrote: »

As much as you would hate for this to happen, there does appear to be a trend towards a slowing in the fall, at least. All people want on this forum is failure, isn't it? It's actually depressing.

I had a post up there you didn't respond to, where exactly is economic growth going to come from now that construction is wiped out?

Flamed Diving

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Eh we can't run the country on MNCs alone, we haven't enough of them by any stretch of the imagination. If the economy is to return to a healthy state, we need to have something to replace the huge swathe that construction represented, and thus far the government has not produced any such ideas. The car might only be at 50mph by the time it hits the wall, but I still wouldn't want to be sitting in it.

You are all fans of the journalistic style on this forum! Shame I have such disdain for media, as it seems most of you derive your knowledge from it.

Amhran Nua wrote: »

So what will replace construction? And please don't say construction.

Construction.

Amhran Nua wrote: »

In addition the MNCs are being largely buoyed up by government stimulus plans in other countries, if the international economy isn't moving under its own steam by the time those run out, as md23040 quite correctly says, we're in deep trouble indeed.

Data to back this up please. I'm tired of these FACTssertions.

Flamed Diving

Amhran Nua wrote: »

I had a post up there you didn't respond to, where exactly is economic growth going to come from now that construction is wiped out?

As we can all tell by now, Ireland's true economic growth did not come from this sector, as this was driven by an asset bubble. It came from foreign direct investment and its spillover effects, back in the 1990s. So your question is a non sequiter.



Data from Penn World Tables. Y-variable = gdp/per capita relative to the US.