It's Over (We're out of recession!)

opinion guy

I want a pay rise

Capt'n Midnight

Weathercheck wrote: »

Apparently Ireland has suprisingly exited recession in the 3rd quarter of this year.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1217/economy.html

GDP compared with the second quarter showed a small rise of 0.3%. But as GDP includes profits made by US multi-nationals based here, many economists prefer to focus on gross national product (GNP). This showed a quarterly fall of 1.4% and an annual drop of 11.3% in the third quarter.

A breakdown showed that consumer spending remained weak, with a fall of 7.3% compared with a year earlier, while capital investment slumped 35%. These falls were both bigger than in the second quarter. Industrial production was down 9.6%, with the construction part of this dropping by 34.4%.

But exports contributed €2.8 billion more to the economy than in the third quarter of last year, indicating a strong performance from multinational companies based here.

Separate CSO figures showed that the balance of payments current account deficit in the third quarter was €902m, down almost €2 billion from the €2.9 billion deficit a year earlier. The CSO says the reduction was mainly due to a €2.2 billion increase in the merchandise surplus because of a sharp fall in imports.

So it's mainly multinationals making use of our low tax loopholes to make paper profits

20goto10

SoWatchaWant wrote: »

Yeah but that's going by GDP instead of GNP. My understanding of economics is limited, but that seems to me like finding different ways of classifying the statistics to make it seem best, ie. shining up **** and calling it gold.:)

By definition and by international standards we are technically out of recession. Its the same definition used by all the other coutries who recently declared themselves out of recession. But because its Ireland it doesn't count :rolleyes:

Saadyst

Out of recession just points toward an economy growing again - it doesn't say how long positive growth will last for, or how big it will be etc. Just, for now, there is good news. Hopefully it'll continue and grow.

Employment and everything related to it is considered a 'lagging indicator' - basically it will always be behind the news. For example we knew things were going down the pan as far back as 2007 I think, yet unemployment really started to kick in during 08 til now. So the opposite is true also. It'll take some time before economy growth is reflected in employment figures.

At least that's my understanding from internet economics.

20goto10

The good news is that we are technically out of recession. Even though its only a technicality/definition that doesn't really reflect the state of the economy other than to say this quarter was better than the last quarter, what is good about it is its something nobody thought would happen until at least 2011 - 2012. Its good news but good news doesn't sell these days. People are still unemployed, economy is still in the sh!ts.

seamus

20goto10 wrote: »

People are still unemployed, economy is still in the sh!ts.

Anecdotally I would personally claim that people are generally having success in eventually finding jobs (even if they're not getting the same wage) and that most of us have managed to readjust ourselves financially such that we actually have more disposable income than we had in early 2007, but we're not spending it quite so loosely anymore.
Companies also seem to be more optimistic about the future.

Sean Quagmire

opinion guy wrote: »

I want a pay rise

Done. PM sent

Procasinator

CamperMan wrote: »

I don't see car sales going up, I don't see house prices going up, I don't see new jobs..
what I do see is car dealers hitting the wall, people losing their homes or struggling to pay their heavy mortgages, and I see plenty of job losses.

Were not out of the recession.

Remember the UK said that a while back only to find they were deeper in the sh!t than before

None of that makes sense.

It's like me saying I jumped off the 3rd story of a building and broke my legs. I don't see myself running back up to the top of the building, but I'm not falling any more. Things aren't great either, but that's not say I won't heal with time. Might have a limp for a long while though.

Indisputable fact though is I've hit the ground thus I'm not falling any more. The GDP increased, not decreased, hence we are not falling any more. Sure it does hurt to have broken legs. Doesn't change the fact.

Of course, it's not to say someone won't come along and throw me off another building to repeat the process again. Or as I imagine it, the stable platform we've fallen on will collapse from under us: much like the Stonecutters episode in The Simpsons.

/bad-analogy

Wazdakka

Biggins wrote: »

I might get a decent price now for me stash of hash!

PM Sent..

Fratton Fred

Thank god for Windows 7.

Fratton Fred

Procasinator wrote: »

None of that makes sense.

It's like me saying I jumped off the 3rd story of a building and broke my legs. I don't see myself running back up to the top of the building, but I'm not falling any more. Things aren't great either, but that's not say I won't heal with time. Might have a limp for a long while though.

Indisputable fact though is I've hit the ground thus I'm not falling any more. The GDP increased, not decreased, hence we are not falling any more. Sure it does hurt to have broken legs. Doesn't change the fact.

Of course, it's not to say someone won't come along and throw me off another building to repeat the process again. Or as I imagine it, the stable platform we've fallen on will collapse from under us: much like the Stonecutters episode in The Simpsons.

/bad-analogy

the talk in the UK business world is not so much about recovery, be it U shaped, V shaped or whatever, it ismore about it being an extended U. ie the belief is that the economy has hit rock bottom and the big query is how long it will trundle along the bottom before it starts to recover.

Officially it may come out of recession because the economy may rise a bit, but it is kind of like bumps along a stoney bottom rather than a climb.

I like your analogy though, I was thinking of something similar myself.

JONJO THE MISER

I loved the misery of the recession, please dont tell me its over, bah humbug.

Sea Sharp

Deadly. How will this effect the construction sector. Even if we are out of recession, I can't see the construction industry going back to 2007 levels. Therefore we still have a lot of unemployed workers on the dole.

seamus

GaNjaHaN wrote: »

Deadly. How will this effect the construction sector. Even if we are out of recession, I can't see the construction industry going back to 2007 levels. Therefore we still have a lot of unemployed workers on the dole.

They'll have to accept that if you left school and spent 10 years laying blocks, driving machinery and doing a safepass course every other year, then you're going to have to go back to the bottom rung on a new career. They can't stay on the dole forever.

jacool

PirateShampoo wrote: »

Yet i cant get a job for lover nor money.

If you can't get a job for love I bet you can get one for lovin'
You might need kneepads and no morals though !

RobbieTheRobber

PirateShampoo wrote: »

Yet i cant get a job for lover nor money.

jacool wrote: »

If you can't get a job for love I bet you can get one for lovin'
You might need kneepads and no morals though !

If your trying to get a job were you pay them money for working, your not doing it right!

Ticktactoe

InReality wrote: »

*Checks to see this is AH*

*Checks again*

+1

I seriously did... thought it was another forum!

PirateShampoo

jacool wrote: »

If you can't get a job for love I bet you can get one for lovin'
You might need kneepads and no morals though !

I think everyone of us has been getting some lovin off Mr Lenihan, we're paying him for it also.

arybvtcw0eolkf

seamus wrote: »

In the first two quarters of this year, GNP dropped by nearly 10%. In the third quarter, the drop was around one-quarter of what it was in each Q1 and Q2. This is a sharp fall in the rate that GNP is decreasing, and points to a possible increase in GNP from Q1 or Q2 next year.

So basically when figuring out how much we "made" last year, GDP includes the earnings of foreign companies with facilities in Ireland. GNP only includes the earnings of Irish companies and Irish people.

Since we are a small country with a lot of foreign investment, GDP is actually a better indicator of how much we're producing than GNP. However, a foreign company's profits usually end up going overseas, so GNP is a better indicator of how much we're producing and *keeping* within the country - i.e. investing back into the economy.

What?.

Beasty

If you go back to the original article the headline now states:

'Recession over' suggestions rejected

back to square one, methinks:rolleyes:

thewheel2.0

seamus wrote: »

Anecdotally I would personally claim that people are generally having success in eventually finding jobs (even if they're not getting the same wage) and that most of us have managed to readjust ourselves financially such that we actually have more disposable income than we had in early 2007, but we're not spending it quite so loosely anymore.
Companies also seem to be more optimistic about the future.

Agreed my dad was unemployed for 3 months and spent it on irishjobs.ie, he eventually found a job. In our local community a couple of people have lost their jobs and for the mostpart they are all back on their feet again maybe its different in other parts of the country. I even notice the difference in my parents spending, they seem to have copped on.

Agent J

In very short crude terms.

GDP = What we and they make (They being dirty foreigners.... )

GNP = What we make.

One set of numbers says we have left recession. The other set says we havent.

jumpguy

/trying to maintain postivity

Yeah, we are. In my hole.

ascanbe

Procasinator wrote: »

None of that makes sense.

It's like me saying I jumped off the 3rd story of a building and broke my legs. I don't see myself running back up to the top of the building, but I'm not falling any more. Things aren't great either, but that's not say I won't heal with time. Might have a limp for a long while though.

Indisputable fact though is I've hit the ground thus I'm not falling any more. The GDP increased, not decreased, hence we are not falling any more. Sure it does hurt to have broken legs. Doesn't change the fact.

Of course, it's not to say someone won't come along and throw me off another building to repeat the process again. Or as I imagine it, the stable platform we've fallen on will collapse from under us: much like the Stonecutters episode in The Simpsons.


/bad-analogy

I'd go for one from the episode where Homer trys to jump the gorge. Having survived a nasty, prolonged spill, our mangled body has just been placed inside the ambulance; unfortunatley the ambulance is just about to be driven into a tree (NAMA).
You know what happens next, unless somehow we cop on and manage to extricate ourselves; get off the gurney, so to speak.

Kimbot

Biggins wrote: »

Well thank heavens for that.
I might get a decent price now for me stash of hash!

I'll take some of that

Wazdakka wrote: »

PM Sent..

2 PM's sent :P (I'm really stuck for some :P)

Bandit12

Weathercheck wrote: »

Apparently Ireland has suprisingly exited recession in the 3rd quarter of this year.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1217/economy.html

FF starting the election campaign a bit early this time around i see.

Procasinator

ascanbe wrote: »

I'd go for one from the episode where Homer trys to jump the gorge. Having survived a nasty, prolonged spill, our mangled body has just been placed inside the ambulance; unfortunatley the ambulance is just about to be driven into a tree (NAMA).
You know what happens next, unless somehow we cop on and manage to extricate ourselves; get off the gurney, so to speak.

Good comparison.

VinnyTGM

Cool, I'm going out for a loan.

kraggy

amacachi wrote: »

For the year up to the end of the measured period it was down by 7.4%, but for the 3 months it was up by 0.3%. Is it really that hard to follow?

Erm, yes, it is actually hard to follow considering this wording:

"The Central Statistics Office said the economy, measured by GDP, shrank at an annual rate of 7.4% in the third quarter, slightly less than the 7.9% drop in Q2."

A decrease in the rate of contraction does not equate to growth.

What you point out is based on the paragraph succeeding the above. But the above contradicts your point.

So do yourself a favour and don't be so condescending because whether or not you are correct, this is a discussion forum and not a children's playground where one says to the other "Na na na na na".

I hate Mr. Rolleyes but here is an apt situation for his existence.