Will the Govt return to the Public Sector?

Liam79 · 10-12-2009 9:31am #1

Or is that it, is the PS well run dry now?
Surely they cant come back? And to be fair all the perceived anti public service economists/commentators have accepted now that the PS has taken more than its fair share of pain.

Private sector workers are next ....wait and see....

IBEC and ISME will now see this as an excuse to attack their lower paid private sector workers....their own "benchmarking" so to speak.

frman · 10-12-2009 9:33am

Liam79 wrote: »

Or is that it, is the PS well run dry now?
Surely they cant come back? And to be fair all the perceived anti public service economists/commentators have accepted now that the PS has taken more than its fair share of pain.

Private sector workers are next ....wait and see....

IBEC and ISME will now see this as an excuse to attack their lower paid private sector workers....their own "benchmarking" so to speak.

Of course they will come back Liam. They have to make similar saving for the next few years.
Public Sector pay is the only pay structures that they control.

Seriously, don't let this be a big shock to you this time next year.

Liam79 · 10-12-2009 9:37am

frman wrote: »

Of course they will come back Liam. They have to make similar saving for the next few years.
Public Sector pay is the only pay structures that they control.

Seriously, don't let this be a big shock to you this time next year.

Both Lenihan and Hanafin have both said explicity this morning they will NOT be touching public service pay anymore. Read my lips kinda stuff. :rolleyes:

tunney · 10-12-2009 9:38am

Liam79 wrote: »

Or is that it, is the PS well run dry now?
Surely they cant come back? And to be fair all the perceived anti public service economists/commentators have accepted now that the PS has taken more than its fair share of pain.

Private sector workers are next ....wait and see....

IBEC and ISME will now see this as an excuse to attack their lower paid private sector workers....their own "benchmarking" so to speak.

Dude - head into a library and get a book on economics.

How has it run dry? The PS are still overpaid in relation to irish private sector and international public sectors.

There are another 4 harsh budgets to come. The public and private sectors are going to be hit hard again and again and again.

frman · 10-12-2009 9:39am

Liam79 wrote: »

Both Lenihan and Hanafin have both said explicity this morning they will NOT be touching public service pay anymore. Read my lips kinda stuff. :rolleyes:

The only way that they won't touch public pay again is if they are not in Government. Maybe they expect that to be the case.

There has to be more reductions as we have more savings to find.

tunney · 10-12-2009 9:39am

Liam79 wrote: »

Both Lenihan and Hanafin have both said explicity this morning they will NOT be touching public service pay anymore. Read my lips kinda stuff. :rolleyes:

Ah yes cause you can trust what a politican says.........

Liam79 · 10-12-2009 9:41am

tunney wrote: »

Dude - head into a library and get a book on economics.

How has it run dry? The PS are still overpaid in relation to irish private sector and international public sectors.

There are another 4 harsh budgets to come. The public and private sectors are going to be hit hard again and again and again.

OK, so Eddie Hobbs, Brian Lenihan, Mary Hanafin, Jim Power, Noel Dempsey, David McWilliams and Ingrid Miley are all wrong....but your right....??
Cos all the above are on the record as saying the PS will not be hit again.....

frman · 10-12-2009 9:42am

Liam79 wrote: »

OK, so Eddie Hobbs, Brian Lenihan, Mary Hanafin, Jim Power, Noel Dempsey, David McWilliams and Ingrid Miley are all wrong....but your right....??
Cos all the above are on the record as saying the PS will not be hit again.....

Did they happen to mention where the savings would come from ?

Liam79 · 10-12-2009 9:45am

frman wrote: »

Did they happen to mention where the savings would come from ?

No they didnt and thats a very valid point Frman.
But Lenihan is on record as saying the 2011 Budget will be HALF of this budget, and the likes of Hobbs/McWillaims/Power are hardly champions of the PS Cause, but they have also said the Govt can not return to the PS well any longer.

frman · 10-12-2009 9:47am

Liam79 wrote: »

No they didnt and thats a very valid point Frman.
But Lenihan is on record as saying the 2011 Budget will be HALF of this budget, and the likes of Hobbs/McWillaims/Power are hardly champions of the PS Cause, but they have also said the Govt can not return to the PS well any longer.

I hope you are right Liam, I just don't see it tbh.

I know if I was reliant on a public sector wage, I would be preparing for another slice to be taken from me next year. And if by some chance it doesn't, then I would be quids in.

tunney · 10-12-2009 9:48am

Liam79 wrote: »

OK, so Eddie Hobbs, Brian Lenihan, Mary Hanafin, Jim Power, Noel Dempsey, David McWilliams and Ingrid Miley are all wrong....but your right....??
Cos all the above are on the record as saying the PS will not be hit again.....

Given you seem to be firmly living in lala land - you believe what you want.

There will be significant cuts in the size of the PS.
There will be reductions in pensions.
There will be reductions in pay.

We cannot afford the PS.

But in LaLa land I'm sure its its different

Rev Hellfire · 10-12-2009 9:51am

They've also stated they can't tax their way out of this problem.
If the money is not coming in (via the private sector), the cost of running the public sector will have to be reduced somehow which means...

frman · 10-12-2009 9:53am

tunney wrote: »

Given you seem to be firmly living in lala land - you believe what you want.

There will be significant cuts in the size of the PS.
There will be reductions in pensions.
There will be reductions in pay.

We cannot afford the PS.

But in LaLa land I'm sure its its different

I don't think you need to be that aggressive Tunney.

Liam is asking a valid question as it affects him and thousands more around the country.

I know there will be a property tax introduced next year together with water rates. Maybe they are expecting to receive a lot of revenue from these areas. Of course it is just another way to take money out of workers pockets !

BraziliaNZ · 10-12-2009 9:54am

tunney wrote: »

We cannot afford the PS.

You do realise a public sector is required to run a country? do you think we should embrace anarchy in this state or something?

Liam79 · 10-12-2009 9:54am

tunney wrote: »

Given you seem to be firmly living in lala land - you believe what you want.

There will be significant cuts in the size of the PS.
There will be reductions in pensions.
There will be reductions in pay.

We cannot afford the PS.

But in LaLa land I'm sure its its different

Ok, so basically....they are either lying or wrong, and your right??
Correct?

imme · 10-12-2009 9:54am

Of course they'll be back, they need another €4bn next year.
Also, they didn't implement any structural reforms in the PS, apart from proposed pension changes which will only affect new applicants.

dearg lady · 10-12-2009 9:55am

Well given that the paycuts put in place in this budget for 2010 will still be in place in 2011, a similiar amount of money will be saved in 2011 as in 2010. I'd be surprised if they went for public sector wages again. They migth make further pension adjustments as time goes on though.

Liam79 · 10-12-2009 9:56am

imme wrote: »

Of course they'll be back, they need another €4bn next year.
Also, they didn't implement any structural reforms in the PS, apart from proposed pension changes which will only affect new applicants.

Wrong, they need 2bn next year...Lenihan revised the figures last night

Sleepy · 10-12-2009 9:56am

Maybe they're hoping that the savings can be made from a combination of:

Natural attrition from a 'no new hires' policy for the next 4 years
Not giving increments for length of service i.e. a pay freeze
An introduction of a voluntary unpaid leave scheme for those who can be done without for a few days each year
Slashing budgets for staff training (much of which is junket-ry anyway - I should know, I gave some of the courses!)
Reduction of expense rates / allowances (I remember seeing the figure of 1.27 per mile for a given grade of civil servant on one Department's expense syste!)

and other reforms of a similar nature.

I can't see how they can expect not to have to cut pay again otherwise.

frman · 10-12-2009 9:57am

imme wrote: »

Of course they'll be back, they need another €4bn next year.
Also, they didn't implement any structural reforms in the PS, apart from proposed pension changes which will only affect new applicants.

A very good point there imme. Perhaps the bulk of the savings will come from Public Sector reform rather than straight paycuts next time out.

I don't think any hard working ps person would argue with reform if it meant having the same money in every paypacket. (please tell me that this assumption is correct or I will lose all faith!)

Mr. Presentable · 10-12-2009 9:58am

tunney wrote: »

We cannot afford the PS.

So who do you reckon should go? The Gardai? Fire Fighters? Nursing staff? The Clerical staff who serve at the Welfare office?

You need the Public Service.

MaceFace · 10-12-2009 9:58am

Liam79 wrote: »

Ok, so basically....they are either lying or wrong, and your right??
Correct?

I think there is a lot of lying going on, but not just with the politicians.

Hanifin was asked on Morning Ireland this morning if they would come back for more cuts.
She basically said they would be coming back to engage the unions on a reform and if that failed, she would not rule out more cuts.

I don't remember Lenny saying anything about next years budget being half of this years. Please elaborate.......

BraziliaNZ · 10-12-2009 9:59am

nipplenuts wrote: »

So who do you reckon should go? The Gardai? Fire Fighters? Nursing staff? The Clerical staff who serve at the Welfare office?

You need the Public Service.

We need to sack everyone, we just can't afford a public service now, maybe keep 5% skeleton crew to keep country running

Permabear · 10-12-2009 9:59am

This post has been deleted.

tunney · 10-12-2009 10:00am

frman wrote: »

I don't think you need to be that aggressive Tunney.

Liam is asking a valid question as it affects him and thousands more around the country.

With Liam79 - I think you do need to be, he doesn't seem to grasp the bigger picture.

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

You do realise a public sector is required to run a country? do you think we should embrace anarchy in this state or something?

Of course I do but it need not be as costly to the public.

tunney · 10-12-2009 10:02am

nipplenuts wrote: »

So who do you reckon should go? The Gardai? Fire Fighters? Nursing staff? The Clerical staff who serve at the Welfare office?

You need the Public Service.

Then they need to be paid less, substantionally.
If there cannot be a reduction in numbers then there has to be significant (read another 15%) cut in PS wages. Across the board.

stevoman · 10-12-2009 10:05am

ah yes, the mob have their scalp yet they still cry for blood.

now can people please chage the bloody record!!!!!!!!!!!!

Liam79 · 10-12-2009 10:27am

tunney wrote: »

Then they need to be paid less, substantionally.
If there cannot be a reduction in numbers then there has to be significant (read another 15%) cut in PS wages. Across the board.

And do you include people earning between 20 and 35k who have just been hit extremely hard in that Tunney??

dearg lady · 10-12-2009 10:28am

stevoman wrote: »

ah yes, the mob have their scalp yet they still cry for blood.

now can people please chage the bloody record!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have to agree, I had pretty much stopped reading the politics forum the last few weeks, as it was gettin horribly repetitive and going around in circles. In a lot of ways I supported the cuts even though it's money out of my pocket as I fully realise cuts had to be made, and I felt incredible sympathy for those in the private sector who had lost jobs or had their pay cut.

Post budget, all I have seen so far from private sector is cries for more(though I don't doubt there are reasonable people out there, they're probably just not so loud) I know feel very strongly that I will fight any further proposed cuts, and my sympathy, I must admit, is waning.

Cypresstree · 10-12-2009 10:34am

dearg lady wrote: »

I have to agree, I had pretty much stopped reading the politics forum the last few weeks, as it was gettin horribly repetitive and going around in circles. In a lot of ways I supported the cuts even though it's money out of my pocket as I fully realise cuts had to be made, and I felt incredible sympathy for those in the private sector who had lost jobs or had their pay cut.

Post budget, all I have seen so far from private sector is cries for more(though I don't doubt there are reasonable people out there, they're probably just not so loud) I know feel very strongly that I will fight any further proposed cuts, and my sympathy, I must admit, is waning.

Completely Agree!!

Scofflaw · 10-12-2009 1:22pm

frman wrote: »

A very good point there imme. Perhaps the bulk of the savings will come from Public Sector reform rather than straight paycuts next time out.

As far as I know, that's the plan. Because savings are needed immediately, the immediate Government action has been to cut PS pay, but in the slightly longer term it's preferred that savings come through structural reform.

However, haven't the unions said that because of the pay cuts, they'll block structural reform? In that case, presumably, the next round of savings would also have to come from pay cuts...

cordially,
Scofflaw

The_Honeybadger · 10-12-2009 1:33pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

As far as I know, that's the plan. Because savings are needed immediately, the immediate Government action has been to cut PS pay, but in the slightly longer term it's preferred that savings come through structural reform.

However, haven't the unions said that because of the pay cuts, they'll block structural reform? In that case, presumably, the next round of savings would also have to come from pay cuts...

cordially,
Scofflaw

Good point the moratorium is in place for 4 years, most temporary contract staff will be let go unfortunately, and they will decimate staff in the semi state through cutting their funding, big savings to be made there. Also expect tax reform with a widening of the tax net in the next budget. Water tax and property tax will be introduced over next two years and Gov will also be hoping for economic growth within that period. If we could get the live register down that would help no end. Alot of this strategy is based on hope rather than anything else, lets all cross our fingers that it will work out.

View · 10-12-2009 1:49pm

To set it in context, we borrowed this year 20 billion to pay the day-to-day bills of the State. After 4 billion in cuts (presuming they actually get implemented in full), then we'll still need to borrow 16 billion next year AND, as a result of the increased national debt, we'll need to "find" an additional 2 billion to pay the additional interest on the national debt from this year.

In terms of size of expenditure, the state spends its money on: i) Social Welfare, ii) PS pay & pensions, and, iii) everything else.

Now try and figure out where next year's cuts are going to come from.

To my mind, ultimately, to get the state's finances back on track, it'll boil down to pay cuts AND compulsory lay-offs.

Liam79 · 10-12-2009 2:03pm

With regard to my original question, was listening to the radio there over lunch and they had Dermot Ahern on and he stated categorically there will be absolutely no further pay cuts to public service salaries in future budgets.

gazzer · 10-12-2009 2:31pm

One thing I am wondering about yesterdays pay cuts for PS workers is that Is this a breach of contract? I took a pay cut yesterday and even though I naturally dont want my wages to go down I accept it had to. However if the pay conditions as per my contract have been changed what is to say that in the next budget the government wont turn around and tell all PS workers that their pension entitlements are going to change etc.

Rujib1 · 10-12-2009 2:46pm

Liam79 wrote: »

Both Lenihan and Hanafin have both said explicity this morning they will NOT be touching public service pay anymore. Read my lips kinda stuff. :rolleyes:

Government has to plough ahead with the cutting of public spending.
Unions need an honourable excuse for not marching up and down the streets in wet and windy January.

So, between government and the beards, they will find some form of words to get back around the table.
This time, the beards will have to come up with a more acceptable strategy to stave off another pay cut other than 12 days on the beach.
Reform and get away with no pay cut!
No reform and get another pay cut of 8%.

Simple maths on the one hand, and the reality that very many public service employees, haven't the stomach for strikes the general public are not going to support such strikes.

dvpower · 10-12-2009 2:54pm

Liam79 wrote: »

Both Lenihan and Hanafin have both said explicity this morning they will NOT be touching public service pay anymore. Read my lips kinda stuff. :rolleyes:

I must have heard a different interview. In the one I heard, Hanafin said that the way Public Servants could avoid further cuts was to deliver savings through reforms.

dvpower · 10-12-2009 2:56pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

However, haven't the unions said that because of the pay cuts, they'll block structural reform? In that case, presumably, the next round of savings would also have to come from pay cuts...

That was the implication I took from Hannifin's interview on Radio1 this morning.

seangal · 10-12-2009 4:34pm

Liam79 wrote: »

Both Lenihan and Hanafin have both said explicity this morning they will NOT be touching public service pay anymore. Read my lips kinda stuff. :rolleyes:

No they won’t be back if they get some form of reform
But they will be back for tax hikes next year from all workers
But one thing for sure the private sector will now be hit for a wage cut and the minimum wage is also going to get it

seangal · 10-12-2009 4:36pm

frman wrote: »

Did they happen to mention where the savings would come from ?

Tax Tax Tax and reduced public services bought about by reform in the public sector by not replacing staff.

seangal · 10-12-2009 4:41pm

tunney wrote: »

Given you seem to be firmly living in lala land - you believe what you want.

There will be significant cuts in the size of the PS.
There will be reductions in pensions.
There will be reductions in pay.

We cannot afford the PS.

But in LaLa land I'm sure its its different

yes and in La la land if they Piss off public sector much more people will be left to die on the street and that is where out public service are going so my advise is if you cant afford the PS today look after you health and put a better alarm on you house

ardmacha · 10-12-2009 4:41pm

We've added 85,000 public servants to the payroll over the course of the past decade.

If we could get by with 85,000 fewer public servants in 2000, without the state descending into anarchy, why can't we get by with 85,000 fewer public servants in 2010?

We need to identify exactly where these extra staff are and what they are doing. Some sectors expanded, some didn't. Some achieved something with the increase, some didn't.

There has been much talk of the need to reduce public spending back to 2005 levels or whatever, but very little information on what the increases since 2005 were and what they were designed to achieve.

RobbieTheRobber · 10-12-2009 4:43pm

seangal wrote: »

No they won’t be back if they get some form of reform
But they will be back for tax hikes next year from all workers
But one thing for sure the private sector will now be hit for a wage cut and the minimum wage is also going to get it

Indeed they are IBEC are delighted this will further reduce the cost of living in ireland and further justify reducing wages.

A group I hear lauding of here when they say somethign bad about the public sector is the OECD and when they studied this country they recommended getting more women into employment in this country, but why?

A strange things to claim most would reckon but not if you look at from a business point of view. When more women are employed in any sector it has one charactaristic and that is to drive down the overall wage of that sector

seangal · 10-12-2009 4:45pm

Rujib1 wrote: »

Government has to plough ahead with the cutting of public spending.
Unions need an honourable excuse for not marching up and down the streets in wet and windy January.

So, between government and the beards, they will find some form of words to get back around the table.
This time, the beards will have to come up with a more acceptable strategy to stave off another pay cut other than 12 days on the beach.
Reform and get away with no pay cut!
No reform and get another pay cut of 8%.

Simple maths on the one hand, and the reality that very many public service employees, haven't the stomach for strikes the general public are not going to support such strikes.

There will be no offer on the table
I am off sick tomorrow for the first day in about 3 year due to this paycut and it will save me €30 in childcare and i would advice all PS staff to do the same before they change the sick leave policy.
They reform they are looking for will deliver saving of billions but they wont blackmail the workers in to doing it.
Where i work we have had reform but today we had a union meeting and we are now going on a work to rule which will cause us to go back to the 2003 working terms and condition and remove all the change that was delivered.

Stark · 10-12-2009 4:55pm

I don't think individual public servants can realistically be expected to take another pay cut next December (unless there's a significant contraction in the economy between now and then). That's not to say however that widescale reform still isn't needed in the public sector.

danman · 10-12-2009 4:56pm

seangal wrote: »

There will be no offer on the table
I am off sick tomorrow for the first day in about 3 year due to this paycut and it will save me €30 in childcare and i would advice all PS staff to do the same before they change the sick leave policy.
They reform they are looking for will deliver saving of billions but they wont blackmail the workers in to doing it.
Where i work we have had reform but today we had a union meeting and we are now going on a work to rule which will cause us to go back to the 2003 working terms and condition and remove all the change that was delivered.

Ahh, well done.

This is the type of thing that gives ammunition to those of us in the private sector. we've all read the reports about sick leave in the PS. your only backing up these things by coming out with that sort of statement.

seangal · 10-12-2009 4:57pm

Stark wrote: »

I don't think individual public servants can realistically be expected to take another pay cut next December (unless there's a significant contraction in the economy between now and then). That's not to say however that widescale reform still isn't needed in the public sector.

But you need carrot and stick to get reform and they is not a lot of carrot about now or for the next 3 year

jimmycrackcorm · 10-12-2009 4:58pm

seangal wrote: »

There will be no offer on the table
I am off sick tomorrow for the first day in about 3 year due to this paycut and it will save me €30 in childcare and i would advice all PS staff to do the same before they change the sick leave policy.
They reform they are looking for will deliver saving of billions but they wont blackmail the workers in to doing it.
Where i work we have had reform but today we had a union meeting and we are now going on a work to rule which will cause us to go back to the 2003 working terms and condition and remove all the change that was delivered.

Strangley, if a private sector worker gets a pay cut, they don't automatically take days off sick to make up for it - as there are consequences. But you go ahead - you'll probably get your automatic increment anyway....

The Public Service is going to have to have reform to get the savings next year and I suspect the large discrepancies between public and private sick leave will be one focus.

Stark · 10-12-2009 5:00pm

seangal wrote: »

But you need carrot and stick to get reform and they is not a lot of carrot about now or for the next 3 year

Well the last carrot was benchmarking and that was a huge mistake. Next time round it needs to be performance targets first, increases and bonuses later.

tunney · 10-12-2009 5:03pm

seangal wrote: »

yes and in La la land if they Piss off public sector much more people will be left to die on the street and that is where out public service are going so my advise is if you cant afford the PS today look after you health and put a better alarm on you house

We can't afford the PS today. End of. There will be more cuts, the PS workers will have a choice - emmigrate, work for less, quit.

If the PS acted in the fashion you describe there would be a huge market for private health providers and private security.

tunney · 10-12-2009 5:04pm

seangal wrote: »

There will be no offer on the table
I am off sick tomorrow for the first day in about 3 year due to this paycut and it will save me €30 in childcare and i would advice all PS staff to do the same before they change the sick leave policy.
They reform they are looking for will deliver saving of billions but they wont blackmail the workers in to doing it.
Where i work we have had reform but today we had a union meeting and we are now going on a work to rule which will cause us to go back to the 2003 working terms and condition and remove all the change that was delivered.

A justification of the PS stereotype.

Will the Govt return to the Public Sector?

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