If the budget fails...

tolosenc

Just for clarification, should the Budget fail to pass on Wednesday, does it mean the automatic fall of the government, or just that there will be a confidence vote?

Darragh29

Toulousain wrote: »

Just for clarification, should the Budget fail to pass on Wednesday, does it mean the automatic fall of the government, or just that there will be a confidence vote?

I think if you can't get the budget through then it's a case of "it's goodbye from me and it's goodbye from him"...

Bad and all as things are, as much as I HATE this government, we can't afford another fudge on this one. You can't trust Gilmore or Kenny with this, what we need now is someone to stand up to vested interests and Lenihan is doing it at the moment.

The same logic that demanded pay increases when the cost of living increased, must surely provide for the opposite to happen when the cost of living falls. I don't think it is a huge ask, for those who have secure well paid jobs to contribute more in a national emergency until we get ourselves back to where we need to be...

I hope this budget does get through on Wednesday, because it falling down will be an open goal for the unions...

gent9662

Darragh29 wrote: »

I think if you can't get the budget through then it's a case of "it's goodbye from me and it's goodbye from him"...

Bad and all as things are, as much as I HATE this government, we can't afford another fudge on this one. You can't trust Gilmore or Kenny with this, what we need now is someone to stand up to vested interests and Lenihan is doing it at the moment.

The same logic that demanded pay increases when the cost of living increased, must surely provide for the opposite to happen when the cost of living falls. I don't think it is a huge ask, for those who have secure well paid jobs to contribute more in a national emergency until we get ourselves back to where we need to be...

I hope this budget does get through on Wednesday, because it falling down will be an open goal for the unions...

and it could mean an end to foreign investment in our banks. Can you imagine going to the atm and no cash is available to you!! It's not all that difficult to imagine

eoinbn

Toulousain wrote: »

Just for clarification, should the Budget fail to pass on Wednesday, does it mean the automatic fall of the government, or just that there will be a confidence vote?

Yes it leads to automatic the collapse of the government.

cson

dclane wrote: »

and it could mean an end to foreign investment in our banks. Can you imagine going to the atm and no cash is available to you!! It's not all that difficult to imagine

Er, yes it is. Please expand on that statement.

GSF

dclane wrote: »

and it could mean an end to foreign investment in our banks. Can you imagine going to the atm and no cash is available to you!! It's not all that difficult to imagine

there is currently NO foreign investment in Irish banks. Thats why the Irish government is bailing them out.

Darragh29

If we don't get our act together here pretty rapidly, the ECB is going to end up coming to the conclusion that what is needed here is an enforced correction.

Just like people who are addicted to spending money, you curtail their access to funds and they are then forced to deal with the problem whether they like it or not. Until that happens, they will spend all you give them and come back tomorrow for more...

ei.sdraob

this government is like a bad smell, they arent going away

Darragh29

ei.sdraob wrote: »

this government is like a bad smell, they arent going away

Because people in this country haven't the nuts to remove them...

brianthebard

Darragh29 wrote: »

I think if you can't get the budget through then it's a case of "it's goodbye from me and it's goodbye from him"...

Bad and all as things are, as much as I HATE this government, we can't afford another fudge on this one. You can't trust Gilmore or Kenny with this, what we need now is someone to stand up to vested interests and Lenihan is doing it at the moment.

On what basis can you say that we can't trust Gilmore or Kenny? FF is the embodiment of vested interests, why should we trust them?

Darragh29 wrote: »

If we don't get our act together here pretty rapidly, the ECB is going to end up coming to the conclusion that what is needed here is an enforced correction.

Is this the updated 'the IMF will take over' line?

Darragh29 wrote: »

Because people in this country haven't the nuts to remove them...

Well according to you we don't have anyone to replace them who can be trusted.

lmimmfn

if the budget doesnt go through we will be in deep trouble, it will start renegotiations with unions, FG & Labour will be looking to throw the government, we'll be back to square one on everything except that we'll spend another few months trying to get a budget through and in the meantime we would be borrowing an absolute fortune.

We dont need more instability on top of our current problems, ive no problem if FF get thrown out in january as long as we dont have months of headless chicken politicians.

masteroftherealm

Well I would support the situation of a general election.
We can keep borrowing for many many months and still not come near the Debt to GDP ratios of many other countries.

Id prefer anyone over the gross mismanaging FF government who has shown a basic lack of knowledge of Economics 101

CiaranC

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Well I would support the situation of a general election.
We can keep borrowing for many many months and still not come near the Debt to GDP ratios of many other countries.

Id prefer anyone over the gross mismanaging FF government who has shown a basic lack of knowledge of Economics 101

Eh, what am I missing?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

masteroftherealm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Last time I checked the government debt isnt anything to do with private debt.

CiaranC

Ah, thanks

masteroftherealm

No probs, simple enough mistake.

amacachi

Add 10% a year to our figure and see how long it takes to move up that list.

masteroftherealm

Add 20% to that figure yearly and borrow to fund stimulus investment and watch how quickly the defecit dissapears.

Shadowed

If the budget 'fails' or more importantly if it is a failure, it will firstly cause more constrained times for ordinary Joe and also most likely, spell the death knell for any hope of foreign investment in Ireland for a longer time than we can cope with.

While the Government and people in general need to focus on the state Ireland is in at the minute, we also need to send a message out to the 'investment world' that we are sorting things out and will not be a black hole forever. However, if the Government actually comes out with something refreshing and confidence inspiring I think I personally will fall over.....

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Well I would support the situation of a general election.
We can keep borrowing for many many months and still not come near the Debt to GDP ratios of many other countries.

Id prefer anyone over the gross mismanaging FF government who has shown a basic lack of knowledge of Economics 101

pot.kettle.black:eek:

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

pot.kettle.black:eek:

Elaborate on this nonsensical point??

ceret

eoinbn wrote: »

Yes it leads to automatic the collapse of the government.

I've heard that. but I can't find anything in the constitution, nor Citizens Information stating that. Is it under law that there must be an election?

Or is a convention that as soon as the government loses the vote, the oppositiion will call a vote of no confidence that the government will almost certainly lose?

hinault

Hmmmmmmmm.

While I take the point that this budget must be passed, this budget runs the serious risk of killing the patient.
We need a budget which increases the tax take, without further deflating an ailing economy.

Remember this govt decided that raising VAT in 2008 was the appropriate move.
This is the same govt which wanted to rob our old age pensioners.

I do not believe that Cowen or Lenihan are much use.
They're as good, or as inept, as the opposition.
I don't believe that our leaders have the imagination/intelligence/nous to manage an economy faced with the problems that we have.

masteroftherealm

Failure to pass a Finance Bill has the same effects as a vote of no confidence in the government.

ceret

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Failure to pass a Finance Bill has the same effects as a vote of no confidence in the government.

Oh? is that written down somewhere? Got a link?

masteroftherealm

Article 28 section 10

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ireland#THE_GOVERNMENT

# The Taoiseach shall resign from office upon his ceasing to retain the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann unless on his advice the President dissolves Dáil Éireann and on the reassembly of Dáil Éireann after the dissolution the Taoiseach secures the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann.


By losing the vote on the budget he would case to have the support of the majority of the dail.

Agent J

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Article 28 section 10

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ireland#THE_GOVERNMENT

# The Taoiseach shall resign from office upon his ceasing to retain the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann unless on his advice the President dissolves Dáil Éireann and on the reassembly of Dáil Éireann after the dissolution the Taoiseach secures the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann.


By losing the vote on the budget he would case to have the support of the majority of the dail.

The budget or any similarily important bill can be interpreted as a loss of confidence. I would love to see a court challenged aganist it.

If you keep going 28.11 says that once the Taosieach resigns for any reason then all the members of the governement are automatically have deemed to have resigned.

Same thing happened in 1982 under Fitzgerald.

Dirk Gently

something tells me FG and Lab will be praying the budget passes. Don't think either of them fancy having to do the job themselves at the moment. I don't think it's in much doubt anyway. Grealish will get his 30 pieces of silver and vote with the government.

thebman

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Well I would support the situation of a general election.
We can keep borrowing for many many months and still not come near the Debt to GDP ratios of many other countries.

Id prefer anyone over the gross mismanaging FF government who has shown a basic lack of knowledge of Economics 101

You don't borrow billions just to pay wages or social welfare, it doesn't make any sense to do it.

We shouldn't be aiming to reach number 1 on the debt to GDP ratios of countries. Most likely its our kids that will be paying it off.

Also things like NAMA are off the books so won't count in such a figure but realistically we owe that money when/if (but when) NAMA doesn't break even.

masteroftherealm

No sorry dont get me wrong I am not advocating no cuts.
Im saying we should be borrowing stimulus money and creating jobs not shedding them.

baubl

how can they put a budget together
when they are wasting money counting frogs
what next silly story will we hear,

Joe1919

ceret wrote: »

Oh? is that written down somewhere? Got a link?

We can also learn from history. (failure of John Brutons budget.)
http://www.rte.ie/laweb/ll/ll_t10d.html

jhegarty

clown bag wrote: »

something tells me FG and Lab will be praying the budget passes. Don't think either of them fancy having to do the job themselves at the moment. I don't think it's in much doubt anyway. Grealish will get his 30 pieces of silver and vote with the government.

I agree. I get the felling they want this through, then a no confidence vote within a month.

me_right_one

If it fails, Ireland is fcuked. I'm buying a donkey and all the flint I can get me hands on.

Peanut

masteroftherealm wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Last time I checked the government debt isnt anything to do with private debt.

That's out of date information. The level of public debt has rocketed since then:

"Public debt in Ireland is expected to soar to 83% of gross domestic product (GDP) next year, from just 25% in 2007."
After Dubai debacle, wondering where the next debt bombs lurk

Borrowing more (assuming we would even be able to) to prop up hugely uncompetitive labour and welfare costs would not be a very wise move.

However there may be some comfort in the knowledge that Ireland is being seen as trying to tackle these issues, in comparison with Greece for example,

"...They don't seem to understand that very serious austerity measures are needed. It is a striking contrast with Ireland"
Greece tests the limit of sovereign debt as it grinds towards slump

nesf

masteroftherealm wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Last time I checked the government debt isnt anything to do with private debt.

Like the above poster those ranking are woefully out of date since they're based on the CIA World Fact Book that has Ireland's unemployment rate at 6% which isn't exactly current. Really, wiki is grand for data but check the source of that data often for economic data and labour market data it is a year behind the current figures (or several years for some stats).

brendansmith

ei.sdraob wrote: »

this government is like a bad smell, they arent going away

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Elaborate on this nonsensical point??

you accuse the government of lacking basic economics yet contend we can keep borrowing at the rate we are currently doing so, ergo the pot is calling the kettle black

we can't keep borrowing to pay PS wages and the markets won't continue to lend to us for that purpose

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

you accuse the government of lacking basic economics yet contend we can keep borrowing at the rate we are currently doing so, ergo the pot is calling the kettle black

we can't keep borrowing to pay PS wages and the markets won't continue to lend to us for that purpose

Yes we can borrow to fund stimulus, thus creating jobs, thus brinign in tax revenue and paying off the debt.
Its called basic Keynesian theory.

masteroftherealm

nesf wrote: »

Like the above poster those ranking are woefully out of date since they're based on the CIA World Fact Book that has Ireland's unemployment rate at 6% which isn't exactly current. Really, wiki is grand for data but check the source of that data often for economic data and labour market data it is a year behind the current figures (or several years for some stats).

Yep, I was merely extrapolating from that level not claiming its current.

As a mod can you point me to a suitable current source with rock hard figures Ive found it ha hard one to find on debt to GDP ratio, both including and excluding NAMA?

My point stands that we could continue to borrow for stimulus and still not approach the debt to GDP ratios of many other countries, BTW I dont see any figures on that 83% ratio. Unless it includes NAMA its too far out there to be realistic.

masteroftherealm

Proof that it can and does happen:

Japan announces 81 billion dollars in stimulus:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8400836.stm

Japans current Debt to GDP Ratio:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt


170%.

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Yes we can borrow to fund stimulus, thus creating jobs, thus brinign in tax revenue and paying off the debt.
Its called basic Keynesian theory.

it's true that we can do that but when we are borrowing too much to fund current expenditure it is not that simple to say we can just go to the markets and borrow more to fund stimulus. It may sound easy in Keynes theory but it simply won't work in practice

the Japan example is not comparable to a small economy like us too. It is one of the largest export economies in the world so they are a good bet to repay their debt, they also have their own currency which will make it easier to repay, and they also already have the largest public debt in the world so they are hardly and model economy to base a plan on.....

by the way here's a quote

"Our country's finances are in an extremely serious state,"

(that's from the Japanese Finance minister today)


and here's a few more.....

"The economy is likely to only grow modestly even with the new stimulus, but the stimulus size of 7.2 trillion yen seems to be reasonable as the government cannot afford to spend massively and worsen fiscal conditions," said Akiyoshi Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.


“I argue there was no need to compile the stimulus at
this timing and especially at the expense of an already
worsening deficit problem, to being with,” said Yuichi Kodama,
chief economist in Tokyo at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co.,
Japan’s third-largest life insurer. “This may simply enlarge
the future risk to the fiscal position in Japan.”

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
forecast Japan’s debt burden will swell to twice the size of
gross domestic product in 2010.

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

it's true that we can do that but when we are borrowing too much to fund current expenditure it is not that simple to say we can just go to the markets and borrow more to fund stimulus. It may sound easy in Keynes theory but it simply won't work in practice

the Japan example is not comparable to a small economy like us too. It is one of the largest export economies in the world so they are a good bet to repay their debt, they also have their own currency which will make it easier to repay, and they also already have the largest public debt in the world so they are hardly and model economy to base a plan on.....

by the way here's a quote



(that's from the Japanese Finance minister today)


and here's a few more.....

I really think you need to look up your facts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932009_Keynesian_resurgence

Most of the counties who have now exited recession did so by following a Kensian model. We are a smaller country therefore our borrowings would be less.

As much as FF and this country's propaganda would love you to think otherwise, Kensian theory and a stimulus backed recovery is a proven and solid way of recovery in the current climate.

Idbatterim

How in god name are another 3 or 4 budgets that take 4 billion out of the economy going to pass, following the uproar over this one?!

ei.sdraob

Idbatterim wrote: »

How in god name are another 3 or 4 budgets that take 4 billion out of the economy going to pass, following the uproar over this one?!

cut welfare to and PS to Uk levels and there we go

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

I really think you need to look up your facts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932009_Keynesian_resurgence

Most of the counties who have now exited recession did so by following a Kensian model. We are a smaller country therefore our borrowings would be less.

As much as FF and this country's propaganda would love you to think otherwise, Kensian theory and a stimulus backed recovery is a proven and solid way of recovery in the current climate.

my facts are sound, i don't disagree that running deficits in downturns as per Keynes is a proven plan for many economies - it just doesn't translate to ireland as a one-size fits all plan

the examples from your wiki article are US, UK and China -- there are massive differences between these economies are ours (ie: contol of their own currency for one) - they can't be used as proof that another borrowing splurge will benefit ireland - we are already borrowing a huge amount to just run the country and pay day to day bills, there isn't an endless pot of money that we can borrow from

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

my facts are sound, i don't disagree that running deficits in downturns as per Keynes is a proven plan for many economies - it just doesn't translate to ireland as a one-size fits all plan

the examples from your wiki article are US, UK and China -- there are massive differences between these economies are ours (ie: contol of their own currency for one) - they can't be used as proof that another borrowing splurge will benefit ireland - we are already borrowing a huge amount to just run the country and pay day to day bills, there isn't an endless pot of money that we can borrow from

Please show me where the non endless pot of money isnt?
Please show me proof that stimulus would not bring us out of recession?
Please show me an economic breakdown of why Keynsian Economics would not apply t Ireland?

Basically back up your arguments or they are null and void.

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Please show me where the non endless pot of money isnt?

we can't print money to fund debt like the UK and US have done, we are reliant on international markets to fund us at every increasing rates of interest - at some point they will stop lending or charge to high a rate that will mortgage our future


Please show me proof that stimulus would not bring us out of recession?

i can't fortell the future no more than you can......stimulus may bring us out of recession, but we can't afford it at the moment until we slow the current rate of borrowing for day to day. you used Japan as an example earlier on.....their economy has pretty much stagnated over the past years despite numerous stimulus plans


Please show me an economic breakdown of why Keynsian Economics would not apply t Ireland?

we can't sustain the acceleration in borrowing - simple as that


Basically back up your arguments or they are null and void.

get off your high horse ffs!, all you have done is post wiki articles :rolleyes:

i've already explained why examples in UK, US, Japan and China don't relate to ireland in the current situation - the textbook isn't always right

K-9

There is limits to what we can borrow too when we are spending nearly twice as much as we take in. We'll be charged higher interest than the States or Japan.


Interest repayments have nearly doubled in the last year and are predicted to go from €2 Billion to €4 Billion next year.

woodseb

K-9 wrote: »

There is limits to what we can borrow too when we are spending nearly twice as much as we take in. We'll be charged higher interest than the States or Japan.


Interest repayments have nearly doubled in the last year and are predicted to go from €2 Billion to €4 Billion next year.

+1

not to mention the risks of downgrades which will make it hard to borrow again - have we seen what has happened to Greece

masteroftherealm

K-9 wrote: »

There is limits to what we can borrow too when we are spending nearly twice as much as we take in. We'll be charged higher interest than the States or Japan.


Interest repayments have nearly doubled in the last year and are predicted to go from €2 Billion to €4 Billion next year.

Please please show me this 50% deficit, hard facts and figures please.
Governments own figures place us at 11 per cent this year and 13.5 per cent next year in deficit.
Please stop plucking figures from nowhere. And where is your proof of our higher interest rates. You cannot parrot government propaganda without independent facts to back them up, I will accept even the barest of facts.