Potential Storm Tuesday/Wednesday - 24/25 November

maquiladora

It looks like we may be in for some more windy weather next week.

First off, Met Éireann had this to say today :

Mild and very windy on Tuesday with scattered outbreaks of rain, heavy at times.

At the moment, the GFS weather model is showing a windy day Tuesday for most parts followed by what could be stormy conditions later that night and into the early hours of Wednesday.

Tuesday 12pm :




Wednesday 6am :




Still a few days away so there is plenty of time for this potential system to be more or less significant than it looks now by the time it arrives, but since it looks like there is almost certainly going to be wet/windy weather of some degree I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread dedicated to this.

Deep Easterly

Worth keeping an eye on is right, as persistent rain is forecast once again which could lead to further problems.

Here we go again!

Hooter23

Hope this next storm gets stronger as the storm we have now was bad enough in Galway anyway and the thunderstorms were exciting but I would like to see a more potent storm wind with 100mph winds:D is this a possibility with this next system I doubt it

Timistry

Yes! another week of crushing disappointment with regards to weather non- events:rolleyes:

force eleven

Timistry wrote: »

Yes! another week of crushing disappointment with regards to weather non- events:rolleyes:

Welcome to the world of Irish weather watching. The greatest events are always those you do not expect, in my years of experience....

maquiladora

The 12Z GFS shows stronger winds for the south coast & irish sea, but the west and northwest get the strongest gusts on this run.

3am Wednesday:



This run is also showing heavy rain coming into the west and south Tuesday afternoon.

6pn Tuesday:



As usual, changes are to be expected...

maquiladora

Interesting situation here lads, the 18Z GFS is rolling out and it brings the path of the storm a little further south again and also ramps up the intensity a bit, the result of which is that more of the west, southwest and south coasts would see stronger winds. Increased winds again in the Irish Sea and inland. The rainfall amounts however look the same on this run as the last.

If this particular run were to come off then this storm would probably be more severe than this weekends one and would be felt over a wider area.










As always, important to remember this is just one model and could very well be less or more severe in the end, but 2 days isnt too far away so these runs should be getting more accurate.

Looking forward to seeing what M.T. thinks.

M.T. Cranium

I think I'll take three days off.

Seriously, this looks about the same net result as Sunday's storm (?) with the northwest showing the strongest wind gradients, but the south coast getting the first round on Tuesday.

We'll have to keep an eye on it next few runs, and see if it wants to intensify, anything weaker would just end up being an outer coast minor event, anything stronger and it could be more noteworthy than Sunday.

Deep Easterly

Lets hope this one throws a bit more wind inland than today's forgettable event. I actually recorded higher windspeeds in July this year than at any stage today. :pac:

Rougies

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Lets hope this one throws a bit more wind inland than today's forgettable event. I actually recorded higher windspeeds in July this year than at any stage today. :pac:

Hopefully. The wind today was pathetic considering the charts and warnings etc. I'm sure my farts gusted higher and were definitely more destructive!

Duiske

The low that passed today seems to move on pretty quickly (over scandinavia by this time tomorrow night) but tuesdays low looks forecast to hang around just to the north of Scotland up to, and maybe beyond, the weekend, dragging in stiff westerlies at first and veering more northerly as the week goes on. Possibly some wintry conditions on the way by the weekend for the NW ?

The first of tonights rain is just appearing off the SW coast on the Met radar. Hopefully the strong winds will push it on quickly before it adds to Munsters problems.

pauldry

Yes while Cork has seen over 200mm of rain in November Sligo has seen an average of 11mm a day in November so far with a total of 258mm:eek: I estimated a the start of November when we got 30mm on day one here that we would end up with 300mm. I though I was exageratting a bit then but now it looks a reality! Ill let ye know our final figure here in the Northwest.

maquiladora

An update from Met Eireann :

TUESDAY NIGHT and WEDNESDAY will be very windy or possibly even stormy, with west to southwest winds gusting from 90 to 120 kph, strongest along the western seaboard. There will be blustery heavy showers of rain or hail throughout the period.

And here is the UKMO chart for midnight Tuesday :

maquiladora

06Z GFS is rolling out and it looks like it hasn't changed much from the charts I posted last night so I won't bother posting the local wind charts, looks very similiar to my eyes anyway....

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

Yes while Cork has seen over 200mm of rain in November Sligo has seen an average of 11mm a day in November so far with a total of 258mm:eek: I estimated a the start of November when we got 30mm on day one here that we would end up with 300mm. I though I was exageratting a bit then but now it looks a reality! Ill let ye know our final figure here in the Northwest.

Amazing figure Paul, and exactly the same here in Galway at 258.8mm. It is debatable as to whether 300mm can be achieved before November is over but it will be interesting to see whether it does or not.

kerry1960

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Amazing figure Paul, and exactly the same here in Galway at 258.8mm. It is debatable as to whether 300mm can be achieved before November is over but it will be interesting to see whether it does or not.

Only 14mm short of that 300mm mark , depressing .

maquiladora

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

Click on Wednesday 06:00, looks like thats the peak time for winds in most places. 83 kmph winds sustained over Dublin, 93 kmph sustained off the northwest coast. Gusts would be about 30% higher right?

maquiladora

Weather Warning

Issued at 23 November 2009 - 13:15

Weather Warning

Turning very windy tonight and tomorrow with further spells of heavy rain, giving 15 to 25 mm in places.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

Deep Easterly

kerry1960 wrote: »

Only 14mm short of that 300mm mark , depressing .

This month is turning out to be a little bit on the damp side alright.


Latest frontal analysis charts show tomorrow's set up nicely:


Image Source: http://www.knmi.nl/


I just circled the area where that potential bank of instability is forecast to develop and potentially bring us the strongest winds of this latest spell either late Tuesday night or sometime during Wednesday morning. Could be some heavy showers embedded too if all goes according to plan. However, nothing set in stone yet and things may change as per the Irish weather

maquiladora

12Z GFS run weakens the intensity of the winds but seems to increase rainfall over Tues/Wed.

Meanwhile, here is the latest UKMO Fax for midnight tomorrow :

Deep Easterly

Latest UKMO release seems to comply with the Fax chart posted above:



Are we looking at some sort of squall line rumbling its way over Ireland in the small hours Wednesday morning? Certainly, going by the latest outputs, the worst of the winds seem to be destined for the North and North-West as this feature passes over.

howlinwolf

i see met eireann has increased its strength in wind speed for tomorrow evening and tomorrow night .... from 100km gusts,now up to 130km gusts in the west and north.....although thursdays storm was more hyped does anyone think this has the potenial to be stronger.....i was reading somewhere that this one is deepening as it moves nearer.....

it doesnt look to be of the same intensity on the sat images yet

Deep Easterly

howlinwolf wrote: »

i see met eireann has increased its strength in wind speed for tomorrow evening and tomorrow night .... from 100km gusts,now up to 130km gusts in the west and north.....although thursdays storm was more hyped does anyone think this has the potenial to be stronger.....i was reading somewhere that this one is deepening as it moves nearer.....

it doesnt look to be of the same intensity on the sat images yet

The system that is forecast to bring those strong winds tomorrow night has yet to develop so anything could happen really. It really is an off shoot of the parent low that is heading this way. In other words, a developing trough that could bring some very squally showers with very gusty winds overland before pressure begins to rise behind it sometime early Wednesday.

Again, none of this may actually come to fruition but it is interesting to watch how this develops from a weather point of view.

Edit: This satellite run from yr.no is a good site to monitor short wave developments over the last 24hrs which might come in useful over the next day or so:

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760

It is a good way to monitor the weather over Europe full stop

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

it doesnt look to be of the same intensity on the sat images yet

As yet there is no image to look at that tells anything, you wont see that until closer to the event.

It does have the potential to be stronger than the weekends storm, but it also has the potential to be weaker. Half of the fun is not knowing exactly what will happen. :pac:

maquiladora

An updated warning...

Issued at 23 November 2009 - 18:15

Weather Warning

Very windy later tonight and for Tuesday with further spells of heavy rain, with some further flooding likely. Strong southerly winds will gust 85 to 100 km/h in places.

Stormy tomorrow evening and tomorrow night, with gusts of 120 to 130 km/h in parts of the West and North. Heavy squally and possibly thundery showers also.

Overall, rainfall totals 25 to 35 mm , highest in Southwest, West and North.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

An updated warning...

they are very on the ball at the moment with their warnings - 35mm is a lot of rain. doesn't look that much forecasted i thought previously - is there some new info to hand?

maquiladora

Related news...

Flood warning issued for Co Clare

Monday, 23 November 2009 20:12

Parts of Co Clare are on high flood alert because of increasing water levels in the river Shannon.

The areas concerned are O'Briensbridge, Clonlara, Westbury and Shannon Banks.

The ESB has been forced to release a significant amount of water at the Parteen Weir due to rising water levels in the River Shannon.

The move means that areas downstream from Parteen, including Limerick city, can expect higher water levels.

cian1500ww

Will we get the same kind of day we had last Thursday this week ?

M.T. Cranium

I agree 30-40 mms potential with this rainfall event, and 65-70 knot wind gust potential for Connacht overnight Tues-Wed. This would make both cases about equal (or just less perhaps) than the recent rain and wind events on the two separate occasions, but bearing in mind that there was generally 20-30 mms of rain over the weekend too, this next wallop is going to stress the overloaded drainage systems severely.

maquiladora

The ESB are under severe pressure dealing with the Shannon at the moment, having to release more and more amounts of water, and this even before the expected 30 odd mm coming over the next couple of days...

maquiladora

18Z GFS appears to be another minor downgrade on previous runs...

maquiladora

Well, the last two GFS runs have been further downgrades, the overall intensity has been reduced a lot by the GFS over the past couple of days and it doesn't look like the next couple of days will be as windy as expected.

Met Eireann has removed the weather warning posted yesterday for high winds, the new warning is just based on rainfall this morning...

Weather Warning

Issued at 24 November 2009 - 08:47

Rainfal amounts of between 15 and 30 mm will accumulate today; the highest totals are most likely in areas already flooded.

Hooter23

I'm surprised it has been downgraded after the wind we had in Galway last night must have been gusting around 60mph almost continuously

Discodog

There is a definite difference to the weekend. These winds are much more consistent with less different between mean wind speed & gusts.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann has removed the weather warning posted yesterday for high winds, the new warning is just based on rainfall this morning...

The sea area forecast still has the mention of gales with possible storm force winds later tonight in coastal areas:

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/sea-area.asp

This was always a tricky set up though, so even if the strongest of the winds do not occur, at least cautious warnings were still mentioned because it was a set up that could have easily turned dangerous.

maquiladora

Maybe someone can correct me on this, but I think at the moment the winds being experienced now are due to an approaching cold front, and that the winds from the low itself won't start arriving until late tonight / early tomorrow morning. (?)

DOCARCH

maquiladora wrote: »

Maybe someone can correct me on this, but I think at the moment the winds being experienced now are due to an approaching cold front, and that the winds from the low itself won't start arriving until late tonight / early tomorrow morning. (?)

Correct - there will be a lull this afternoon before stronger winds arrive later tonight and early tomorrow morning.

maquiladora

96.3kmph gust at Mace Head.

A lot of stations and almost all buoys are n/a today, I guess that is somehow related to the public sector strike today, so we might miss some high gusts from key stations like Belmullet today.

Deep Easterly

Current meteograms by yr.no still suggesting an increase in wind later tonight into tomorrow morning along Atlantic headlands:








Image source: http://www.yr.no/

Those were issued at 7.00am this morning so may be updated soon. Will update later if necessary.

maquiladora

Orange Meteoalarm warning out now for the northwest...

Warnings for: Ulster_Donegal

valid from 24.11.2009 09:10 CET Until 25.11.2009 11:59 CET

Wind

Awareness Level: Orange

"Southwesterly winds will gust 70 to 100 km/hr during Tuesday, then southwest to west winds will gust 100 to 125 km/hr during the first half of Wednesday."

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/area.asp?lang=EN&ShowDate=tomorrow&Country=IE&area=167&areaname=

RoisinD

Discodog wrote: »

There is a definite difference to the weekend. These winds are much more consistent with less different between mean wind speed & gusts.

Wind speeds here have almost been consistently above 50mph (80+km) since very early morning. Accompanied of course by the obligatory rain.:(
Different pattern to the weekend so far with no majorly strong gusts so far.

Discodog

yr.no were so wrong at the weekend !

maquiladora

Plenty of rain everywhere this afternoon I'm afraid, bad news for people dealing with flooding...

maquiladora

Rising waters in Athlone town

Tuesday, 24 November 2009 13:19


The Army has been called in to assist with efforts to tackle rising water levels in Athlone.

Around 30 Army personnel are now involved in assessment of the areas most at risk around the town.

Waterways Ireland has said that the levels below the lock in Athlone at Golden Island have now reached 38.98m, which is 4cm above yesterdays levels.
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Yesterday's levels were 40cm above average upstream from the lock for this time of year and levels are continuing to rise.

This afternoon soldiers will begin the distribution of sand bags to the areas most at risk.

Some businesses on the west side of Athlone are coming under increasing pressure from rising waters.

Already 16 houses at Iona Villas in the town have been flooded and most of the residents have gathered in the upstairs section of one house.

They are reluctant to leave the area because of fears over break-ins.

Local authority staff in Athlone are on strike as a result of today's national day of action.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1124/weather.html

mike65

The wind is the thing right now, doors rattling in the sudden gusts.

Discodog

Calmed down a lot here.

maquiladora

mike65 wrote: »

The wind is the thing right now, doors rattling in the sudden gusts.

That will ease off on the south coast by around 7pm, then the winds from the low itself will start rising on the west and northwest coasts later this evening.

secman

Been very blustery in West Dublin for last few hours, raining quite heavy at the moment.

Secman

maquiladora

12Z GFS is a bit of an upgrade on the previous run (but not much), seems to track the low further south and the overall intensity has increased on this run a bit, still the same areas being affected: the northwest getting the strongest of the winds, then later the Irish Sea should see some strong gusts, the east coast a bit more windy tomorrow morning on this run.


3am Wednesday :


9am Wednesday:





All subject to change on the next run of course! :pac:

And away from the models and back in the real world, you can see the low here on the sat loop : http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

maquiladora

New weather warning out from Met Eireann....

Weather Warning

Issued at 24 November 2009 - 16:19

Weather Warning Update

Turning stormy tonight with winds gusting 100 to 130km/h, with highest values in Northern areas

Deep Easterly

Discodog wrote: »

yr.no were so wrong at the weekend !

For you maybe, but for me, 10 out 10 for spot on-ness.

Latest UKMO for midnight tonight:



Image Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/

Trough approaching from the west.