Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

DOCARCH

To avoid confusion with thread for last weekend, I thought new thread is warranted as models are indicating potential of very unsettled weather.

Mods feel free to change title as appropriate.

roryc1

Sat is looking very wild http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091116/12/120/ukwind.png

DOCARCH

roryc1 wrote: »

Sat is looking very wild http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091116/12/120/ukwind.png

That's (hurricane) force 12 sustained wind shown on that chart for Dingle! :eek:

Storm 10

WOW I have never seen a chart like that before, surprised that Met Eireann would not be giving this a mention its on all the weather boards that I checked today. I think the amauter forecasters are more alert than our own guys.

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

WOW I have never seen a chart like that before, surprised that Met Eireann would not be giving this a mention its on all the weather boards that I checked today. I think the amauter forecasters are more alert than our own guys.

Remember that this is 5 days out and the GFS is notorious for downgrading systems as time goes by. Also this run is more intense than the previous run. The 18Z may not look so severe, still a long way off...but still, very much worthwhile keeping an eye on this, it has the potential to be dangerous.

roryc1

look's like i'm off to dingle for the weekend,

Redsunset

A visual representation of this potentially nasty saturday storm.

This is just a guide to what models are trendingat the moment.

All will change so just a heads up.

DOCARCH

Really too far out to be mentioning at this stage - Met E have be burnt before, boy crying wolf, etc. - things could change dramaticlly.

Just looking at http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ if you click on specific stations you get forecast. At the moment, based on models, they are also forecastion 74mph sustained (hurricane) force 12 for M2 bouy just off Dublin coast and for sustained storm force 10 over Dublin! If that came off it would be serious!

maquiladora

DOCARCH wrote: »

To avoid confusion with thread for last weekend, I thought new thread is warranted as models are indicating potential of very unsettled weather.

Mods feel free to change title as appropriate.

Just a suggestion but maybe the title should include the 19th too since it looks like it will get pretty windy in parts on that day.

senordingdong

Hmmmm.....I find that forecasts for out little spot are not much use further than two days ahead.
Would wait untill Thursday before batting down the hatches.

Captain Furball

Not sure why you lads keep getting caught.
We have all seen this numerous times and it never actually happens.I want to see 200mph winds, but I also don't want anyone to be hurt.:D

roryc1

Yeah still to far out gfs can be funny, the met boy saw the last storm about a week out, ok it moved and hit england instead

Redsunset

Captain Furball wrote: »

Not sure why you lads keep getting caught.
We have all seen his numerous times and it never actually happens.I want to see 200mph winds, but I also don't want anyone to be hurt.:D

Not too sure anyones getting caught. if anything your caught when your not expecting anything because one of these days a storm will carry out its forecasted threat.

maquiladora

One thing to remember lads is that this is just being predicted by one model at the moment. The Euro does not show this weekend storm at all yet. Id be more worried if we saw couple of models showing the same thing....

Deep Easterly

Storm 10 wrote: »

WOW I have never seen a chart like that before, surprised that Met Eireann would not be giving this a mention its on all the weather boards that I checked today. I think the amauter forecasters are more alert than our own guys.

Met Eireann have a duty to be objective and informative since they are the official state meteorological organisation. That gale the GFS is showing currently is not confirmed or supported by other NWP models. That does not mean it will not happen but it is far too soon and too unreliable to be causing unnessecary panic at this stage which is where Met Eireann is probably coming from.

Captain Furball

maquiladora makes a very good point!
You know what I mean we all get our hopes up and them poooof it's gone. But don't worry the storm wn't catch anyone off guard as they will forecast it if it is really happening or not.
More likely this doesn't happen as usual.But if it does your a genius for reporting it so early

Redsunset

Captain Furball wrote: »

poooof it's gone.

And we have the devil amongst the usual suspects:D

Captain Furball

haha

maquiladora

:eek:

Flyer1

Doubt very much this will happen.

mad DIY

That looks broke, it's heading off the scale :eek:

Deep Easterly

The week leading up to this storm potential is also not without interest. There is the possibility of strong winds and spells of persistent heavy rain at times between tomorrow night and Friday as frontal waves cross near or over Ireland.

Lastest ECM for this coming Thursday noon shows one such developing wave of the SW coast:



If it pans out as forecast, it looks like November 2009 could end up being extremely wet!

Timistry

Met eirann showed that developing frontal wave on the forecast earlier. Looks like it has alot of rain in it. Was looking forward to last weekend and we all know what happened:rolleyes: But even a scaled back version of the above wind predictions would be noteworthy. Can you imagine if the above model came off though. After all the rain this month, trees would fall like dominos. Night of the big wind 2 anyone;)

patneve

maquiladora wrote: »

:eek:

if that happens (it probably won't) a lot of damage in Dublin as well as the South and South East

Redsunset

patneve wrote: »

if that happens (it probably won't) a lot of damage in Dublin as well as the South and South East

Even though those forecasted 850 winds are a kilometre and a half up in our troposphere,that should correspond to surface winds of 40+


ECM is maybe hinting at something too

M.T. Cranium

Okay, well I predicted this thread would happen ... now as to the storm ???

The GFS trend to a closer track is the usual GFS prelude to setting up the eventual track even further east. However, the consensus of ECM and GEM says either weaker or later (GEM shows quite a strong low taking most of Saturday to come together around 20 W before hitting Ireland Sunday early morning).

The trend on the Thursday night wave has been steadily downgrading to a windshift in an ongoing moderately strong SSW to SW flow. This does no harm to the Saturday storm's prospects.

All in all, I would say too soon to pull the trigger but we're on a watch basis now, an advance alert would be required if two or three of four major models showed strong winds from a similar evolution. That may come about by 00z but I suspect a cycle of downgrade-upgrade ahead, this is often the lead in to a real storm for some reason (downgrade at maybe 96h then restoration to previous status at 72 or 60h).

I survived a night of strong winds and so did most of the city.

pauldry

Its great fun looking at all the potent storms gfs forecast. If even a fraction of them occurred Ireland would be in ruins. But this storm me feels is going to take a more Southerly track and will be a near miss but lots more rain.

So I wonder will there be a 3rd time unlucky storm for the 29th/30th

maquiladora

18Z is a downgrade and Saturday looks nothing like it did on the 12Z run. Its to be expected for each run to chop and change this far out. Still need to keep an eye on the models though...

Joe Public

Storm 10 wrote: »

WOW I have never seen a chart like that before, surprised that Met Eireann would not be giving this a mention its on all the weather boards that I checked today. I think the amauter forecasters are more alert than our own guys.

I think Met Eireann have more of a responsibility to get it right so they have to play the percentage game and not cause unnecessary panic or hope as in the case of those looking for extremes. They have scored better in their forecasting of the last few potential storms that headed our way.

Brute75

Piers Corbyn predicted this weather event months ago, www weatheraction.com, read his warnings, he seems to nail on the head fairly reguarly. The met office hasent even forecasted the event yet. The sun controls our climate.

force eleven

Met Eireann not playing with GFS's earlier 'ball'. Very windy is the most they use,which means force 8-9 at sea and gale force gusts overland. It will be very wet though and that may be the news maker rather than the wind,given the amount of rain we've had....

Things can still change though, and probably will.

maquiladora

The 0Z GFS doesn't change much for Thursday but it drops Saturdays system further south and weakens it again.

Redsunset

Metoffice are seeing something for saturday at the moment.

this looks fairly stormy to me.

M.T. Cranium

I had the impression the gradient had grown stronger on the 12z run for Thursday, it could turn into one of those deals where we have our eyes on the second storm, then the first moderate event takes over the energy and ramps up in the last few runs.

For the weekend, I noticed the GEM (a lesser light among the various models) shows a stronger wind on Sunday while the GFS has pushed one event into early Saturday for the UK then wants to do a second wave for Ireland on Sunday ... it's all giving me a headache given that we are looking at multiple storms here as well over five days, they are whistling in here about once every 24 hours. Add in the eight hour time difference, my cat trying to chase leaves through a closed window, and some negative feedback from dessert, and ... I'm heading to bed.

DOCARCH

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Add in the eight hour time difference, my cat trying to chase leaves through a closed window, and some negative feedback from dessert, and ... I'm heading to bed.

You need a well deserved rest and having the weight of worldwide weather on your shoulders!

leahyl

On the weather forecast on RTE last night they were showing storm force winds along the south coast! It takes a lot usually for them to say that...woohoo batten down the hatches:D!

chris2007

Southwest winds will occasionally reach gale force today on all Irish coasts and on the Irish Sea. Southwest gales or strong gales will develop this evening and early tonight on coasts from Howth Head to Roches Point to Slyne Head and on the South Irish Sea.
Issued at 04:00 on 17-Nov-2009

maquiladora

Euro model hinting at something this weekend now too....Always more interesting when there is some model consensus.

06Z GFS will be rolling out soon.

alibabba

so will i check the lock on the hatches ?

maquiladora

alibabba wrote: »

so will i check the lock on the hatches ?

It's still a bit early for that yet...

chris2007

Nothing major is gonna happen

maquiladora

chris2007 wrote: »

Nothing major is gonna happen

It's just too early to make such a sweeping statement. Only yesterday one of the models forecasted hurricane force gusts for parts of Ireland on Saturday. That would be major. This is still worth keeping an eye on for the next few days...

weisses

There goes my poly tunnel :eek:

I hope the Dingle area will be spared :P

maquiladora

06Z is rolling out, proves the GFS doesn't really have a handle yet on these projected lows, as the weekend looks quite different on this run than the 0Z run. Not much point going into the details cause the next few runs will probably look totally different again! :P

Iancar29

ok this time im not getting any of my hops up till AT LEAST THURSDAY!!,
last week was really annoying when notin reallly happened.

But ye is there any pretty high tides due for the weekend?

Storm 10

Check out this wind chart from Weatherline UK for Sunday Morning this one looks like a big event.

leahyl

It's REALLY dark in Cork City right now and the rain is lashing down! Come on the wind!!:D

howlinwolf

hi all:)........have to say i feel these possible stoms will be just strong winds with a lot of rain in them(like the last few we,ve had). met eireann have been pretty much on the ball with the last few forecasts ....lots of rain,possible flooding ,strong winds force 8-9.they are going down that same route at the moment unlike some of the internet forecasts which always seem to start out with storm,storm,storm then downgrade as the system gets nearer......i would love to see 1 of these systems turn into something special but i have my doubts at the moment.......here,s hopin:D

Hooter23

Accuweather have 90mph gusts for this Saturday Galway area

maquiladora

Hooter23 wrote: »

Accuweather have 90mph gusts for this Saturday Galway area

Ya have to take that with a pinch of salt though cause it's just a figure that comes from one of the recent computer models runs, there's no human forecaster input into those figures and the model runs can change hugely from day to day when an event is more than 3 days away. The closer it gets to Saturday, the more accurate those figures will be. :pac:

Hooter23

Yes your right but i do hope we get at least 80mph +:D