'Say No to Lisbon' group says 'No' vote would topple Govt

ei.sdraob

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/politics/say-no-to-lisbon-group-says-no-vote-would-topple-govt-1898600.html

Monday September 28 2009
The 'Say No to Lisbon' group is predicting that the Government will fall if the Lisbon treaty is defeated.

The group claims that the Government is being pushed to implement severe budget cuts by the European Commission.

And it says that Lisbon will help to reinforce financial policies supported by the Taoiseach and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

heres my response

http://i38.tinypic.com/5ydw21.jpg

and

http://i36.tinypic.com/2v17keu.jpg

:pac:

and my post earlier today

ei.sdraob wrote: »

if you want to bring down the current government (so do most of us here btw)

go hurl bricks at the Greens, they are the ones keeping FF in power

tho that has nothing to do with Lisbon, the fact that you cant see that is worrying

/

moondogspot

I agree that in the case of a NO vote that Fianna Fáil's position will almost be untenable.

Sam Vimes

moondogspot wrote: »

I agree that in the case of a NO vote that Fianna Fáil's position will almost be untenable.

But their major political opponents all support the treaty too so they could hardly claim to represent the will of the people any better. Do you want Gerry Adams as Taoiseach?

ei.sdraob

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Do you want Gerry Adams as Taoiseach?

:eek:

back on topic

we really need to beat this line of crazy line of thinking into the ground with hard cold facts

sceptre

moondogspot wrote: »

I agree that in the case of a NO vote that Fianna Fáil's position will almost be untenable.

It won't take a sharp pencil to figure out what the obvious key word in that opinion is. Even assuming it's correct. Which unfortunately, I rather doubt.

The key word is always the delimiter. That's also a hint for the lovely lady who once said to me "if I guess and get it wrong, will you love me less?"

cornbb

I think they're failing to realise (or acknowledge) that our present government are screwed regardless of whether the treaty is passed or not. Better late than never. Yet another example of campaigners raising points that have nothing to do with the treaty in order to sway voters...

The Volt

This is my line for the day:


Basically voting no just to spite the Government is almost like saying okay mister, you're after punching me so the best way to get you back is to punch myself in the face. It wont get rid of them, it can't get rid of them.

Sam Vimes

Voltwad wrote: »

This is my line for the day:


Basically voting no just to spite the Government is almost like saying okay mister, you're after punching me so the best way to get you back is to punch myself in the face. It wont get rid of them, it can't get rid of them.

Sig'ed

Denis Irwin

Ah yes this old chestnut again from the No side. 'Vote No to kick out the Govt.' :rolleyes: Yet again they prove that can't come up with valid reasons for a No vote . Cowen won't be Taoiseach in 6-12 months time regardless of the result of the Lisbon treaty IMO.

ei.sdraob

Denis Irwin wrote: »

Ah yes this old chestnut again from the No side. 'Vote No to kick out the Govt.' :rolleyes: Yet again they prove that can't come up with valid reasons for a No vote . Cowen won't be Taoiseach in 6-12 months time regardless of the result of the Lisbon treaty IMO.

but whatever happens (short of a revolution and guillotines being used)

he will still get a nice fat goldplated pension

people voting NO to spite the government are only gonna hurt themselves in long run

ShooterSF

I don't agree with their speculation but then I don't agree with the speculation of many people from both sides about the consequences of a no vote. However I don't see the difference in this and claiming it will lead to the loss of 500,000 jobs... both are speculation on what could happen. Though I doubt they will.

meglome

So set's see... Has any government ever quit after a referendum vote... nope. Given the atrocious poll ratings of both Fianna Fail and the Greens it would be suicidal for them to quit before they have to. But hey let's not look at this logically or anything.

hatrickpatrick

It's a really stupid reason to vote no IMO. We are not voting on the government. Indirect cause and effect of the Lisbon treaty is irrelevant in my view, the only relevant issues are those in the actual text of the treaty itself. Vote yes if you want to see that text enforced, vote no if you don't. The reason being that any of these "knock on effect" reasons for voting are 100% uncertain and not guaranteed, but the text of the treaty IS guaranteed.

Sam Vimes

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

It's a really stupid reason to vote no IMO. We are not voting on the government. Indirect cause and effect of the Lisbon treaty is irrelevant in my view, the only relevant issues are those in the actual text of the treaty itself. Vote yes if you want to see that text enforced, vote no if you don't. The reason being that any of these "knock on effect" reasons for voting are 100% uncertain and not guaranteed, but the text of the treaty IS guaranteed.

I wouldn't go that far. Ireland's acceptance or rejection of the treaty will have ramifications beyond the actual text and you can't just ignore all possible ramifications but the fall of the government isn't one of them. One reason I want a yes is that this government is almost certainly going to fall regardless of how we vote and if there's a no people will inevitably correlate the two events and get the idea that such nonsense is a valid reason to vote no on future referendums

SkepticOne

This discussion came up a couple of weeks ago. While you should probably base the bulk of your decision on the treaty itself, it is very unrealistic to expect people not to consider the wider implications of that decision and, in a sense, it is right that they should do so. A lot of the content of the campaigns on both sides concern these wider implications and, of course, there's nothing wrong with that.

To what extent would a second No vote undermine the government? Let's turn the question around. Would a Yes vote help the government? It is fairly clear that it would, imo. The government went out on a huge limb by not respecting the original decision and saying that it was largely ignorance that led to the original decision. Not something to be done lightly. If they get a Yes, they are vindicated in not respecting the electorate. If you were a FF supporter but undecided on the treaty itself, you would most likely vote Yes to give FF this boost.

To a certain extent, if you vote Yes, you are also undermining the likes of SF, but the difference is that SF didn't go out on the limb of disrespecting the original decision and consequently they won't get the same level of boost if there were to be a No vote.

The thing about disrespecting the result of a referendum is that the only way you can justify yourself is if you win the repeat referendum. There is no other way. This is different to all the other things that have made the current government unpopular but which the government could at least attempt to justify on the basis of having to make the "hard choices".

So my advice would be to primarily vote according to the content of the treaty but don't forget these other aspects.

BlitzKrieg

wasnt there a thread a week or so back and someone posted saying none of the official no campaigns promote this line of thinking?

Sam Vimes

SkepticOne wrote: »

The government went out on a huge limb by not respecting the original decision

If they didn't respect it the treaty would now be ratified

SkepticOne wrote: »

and saying that it was largely ignorance that led to the original decision. Not something to be done lightly.

They didn't say that, 3 independent surveys did

SkepticOne wrote: »

So my advice would be to primarily vote according to the content of the treaty but don't forget these other aspects.

What's your opinion on all the economists, businesses and trade unions who say that a yes vote will help the economy?

SkepticOne

Sam Vimes wrote: »

If they didn't respect it the treaty would now be ratified

They would be violating the constitution if they did that. It would not be signed into law. They don't have the choice to do otherwise.

Respecting the treaty means going to their EU colleagues and telling them that the Irish people have made their decision and that is the end of the Lisbon Treaty as far as Ireland is concerned.

Note that this is not to say that they were not correct in disrespecting the original decision, but that vindication of this must come with a Yes in the upcoming repeat referendum.

Dinner

It's a stupid argument.

If the referendum passes then FF can't use it to say 'Hey look how great we are!' because Enda Kenny and Gilmore and everyone else who supported a yes vote will make it known that they had as much to do with a yes vote as FF.

If the referendum fails then FF will point to FG and the rest and say 'It wasn't just us!'.

After an awful performance by both the Greens and FF in the local and Euro elections was their position untenable? Yes, but did it make a difference? No. They have survived a vote of no confidence and the worst opinion polls in decades, but they're still there.

And some people honestly think that the failure of Lisbon, where they can partially pass the buck will be the thing to bring them down?

Not a ****ing chance.

SkepticOne

Dinner wrote: »

If the referendum fails then FF will point to FG and the rest and say 'It wasn't just us!'.

If it fails, I don't think FG would have any problem spinning the result in their favour. They would be quite happy to say that although they, FG, wanted a Yes result and had publicly called on people to put their anger at the government to one side and vote Yes, the people's dissatisfaction at government lack of leadership in other areas that the people chose to go against the government and vote No.

Dinner

SkepticOne wrote: »

If it fails, I don't think FG would have any problem spinning the result in their favour. They would be quite happy to say that although they, FG, wanted a Yes result and had publicly called on people to put their anger at the government to one side and vote Yes, the people's dissatisfaction at government lack of leadership in other areas that the people chose to go against the government and vote No.

And that would bring down the government?

FF will still say that it was a referendum on Lisbon, not on them.

SkepticOne

Dinner wrote: »

And that would bring down the government?

FF will still say that it was a referendum on Lisbon, not on them.

No, I don't think FGs comments alone would bring down the government. Whilst I don't think it is certain or even likely, I think such a thing would be the result of a combination of factors both internal and external to FF.

PopeBuckfastXVI

Dinner wrote: »

And that would bring down the government?

FF will still say that it was a referendum on Lisbon, not on them.

Nonsense, do you not remember the last time we voted no to Lisbon and the government fell...

SkepticOne

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Nonsense, do you not remember the last time we voted no to Lisbon and the government fell...

We shall have to see, of course, but we're in new territory here in the event that the public votes No a second time.

TallaghtD24

The days of Irelands Governments or politicians falling on their sword are long gone. The only reason this Government will fall is because they want they hell out while the kitchen is too hot.