Will Lisbon Pass?

The Volt

Not looking for reasons for/against voting yes/no here. Just looking for informed opinions about why people think it will/wont pass this time.

I severely hope it will but I genuinely don't know whether it will or not. I think it'll be closer than last time and hopefully yes will sneak it.

minidazzler

I hope it will, but I have very little faith in the Irish people. The poorer area's will believe the lies that Sinn Fein and Coir are spreading.

Captain Furball

minidazzler
Are you referring to wealth? Or intelligence?
I think it will pass because people are "scared".........

meglome

Captain Furball wrote: »

I think it will pass because people are "scared".........

Did you mind when people were scared and tricked into voting No?



I hope it will pass but the level of No side lying is ramping up again.

Scofflaw

Stay on topic, please.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Colpriz

My fear is this time it will be passed on the fear of the current ecconomic crisis. People voted No due to lack of information the last time before. FF did a bad job of relaying it to the public, now they are saying we have to vote Yes again because if we dont we are more screwed. We are about to be screwed by NAMA..it doesnt seem like there is ever a good time to vote on this in the curent turmoil???

Kama

I think it'll pass, enough Don't Know's will move to Yes, and a few No 'lites'. Working-class areas will probably still have similar No stats, maybe higher given that the eloquent arguments made here aren't falling on their ears, being asked twice, and general protest at Cowen et al, while the ABC1's will have better Yes returns than last time round.

My guesstimate is squeaks through Yes, but it all comes down to those precious Don't Know voters.

ei.sdraob

I honestly dont know

its gonna be close

simply because alot of people either dont know or care to know about something that has consequences for them eitherway


but at least the YES side and myself are better at demolishing the crap thrown by the NO side this time around, and theres less of them posters with nothing but ugly politician faces on them (Labour im looking at yee)

turgon

I have my doubts and in fact last week I was about to put money on a No win but for losing my Visa card. Two reasons:

1. People voting at anger with the government.
2. People believing Coir posters.

In the first case one cant really talk to these people. They have gotten it into their heads that a No vote will be bad for the government and somehow good for themselves. Its a classic case of shooting oneself in the foot. These people also arent willing to discuss the actual Treaty, so I think the cant be convinced otherwise.

I have disappointing story about number 2. One of my friends, not politically minded, was all for voting Yes. He was constantly talking up the EU and slamming Sinn Fein etc. I left the country for a month and when I came back the Coir posters were up. I asked him did he see the €1.84 poster, in a tone that I was expecting him to share in how ridiculous they were. Instead he quickly informed me he was strongly voting No, because he believed that Dunnes Stores were going to pay him €1.84 after Lisbon. These posters have effected people, and for many voters posters is all they will see because they dont watch/read the news or pamphlets.

Sam Vimes

turgon wrote: »

Instead he quickly informed me he was strongly voting No, because he believed that Dunnes Stores were going to pay him €1.84 after Lisbon. These posters have effected people, and for many voters posters is all they will see because they dont watch/read the news or pamphlets.

Did you not correct him, possibly employing some kind of blunt object in the process?

ei.sdraob

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Did you not correct him, possibly employing some kind of blunt object in the process?

maybe he deserves 1.84 / hour

i kid i kid

your not only one with "horror" stories


one of my friends insisted last time around that EU is like USSR and still at it :eek: i feel like slamming her across head with a history book but I just byte my tongue and smile cause im a good guy

ShooterSF

I done a wee bit of canvassing with a local group of fellow no thinkers but you never know if people really agree or are just being polite. If I thought the people I was talking to were the average I'd be somewhat confident.
I have been glad to see the polls on boards (which was very accurate last time) leaning towards a no vote and even more so the poll that showed discussion here was persuading a few former yes voters to vote no.
It is a sad fact though that it will probably come down to whether people buy into lies being peddled by some of the no side or the scaremongering peddled by some of the yes side.

PCPhoto

I didnt vote the last time and I'm leaning towards a NO vote - mainly due to the fact that we already voted no and they throw it back again (ok with slight changes).

if we vote yes - why does the voting stop ? .....why ?

best of my knowledge ... its actually against the Irish Constitution if we vote yes - my source is the relevant section of the constitution which was used to stop the Tipperary Farmer's action in the High Court recently - it basically says that under the Irish Constitution we have the right to change our minds on any decision and if we vote yes - that decision is removed from us...we wont be allowed to turn around next year and say actually ...we changed our minds...we dont want Lisbon ...we'd be told shut up its already here and nothing you can do about it.

I also dont like the way that the Government is telling us we MUST vote yes, I agree that the "NO" campaign is misleading .... I do expect minimum wage to drop...but then again prices and cost of living has already dropped, and minimum wage might drop anyway ....as the wages paid to some are ridiculous (I'm self employed and its a combination of willingness to lower my price and increase my availability while keeping the level of quality high... has kept me in business - we all have to make changes in a recession.)

People fear the unknown.....people who were not properly informed last time voted NO, have they been informed of the changes - I dont know..... have the YES people gottan annoyed by the Government and their actions.

Ps. I'm not affiliated with any political organisation and have limited knowledge of politics - but I cant see any advantages of voting yes.

ei.sdraob

PCPhoto wrote: »

I didnt vote the last time and I'm leaning towards a NO vote - mainly due to the fact that we already voted no and they throw it back again (ok with slight changes).

if we vote yes - why does the voting stop ? .....why ?

best of my knowledge ... its actually against the Irish Constitution if we vote yes - my source is the relevant section of the constitution which was used to stop the Tipperary Farmer's action in the High Court recently - it basically says that under the Irish Constitution we have the right to change our minds on any decision and if we vote yes - that decision is removed from us...we wont be allowed to turn around next year and say actually ...we changed our minds...we dont want Lisbon ...we'd be told shut up its already here and nothing you can do about it.

I also dont like the way that the Government is telling us we MUST vote yes, I agree that the "NO" campaign is misleading .... I do expect minimum wage to drop...but then again prices and cost of living has already dropped, and minimum wage might drop anyway ....as the wages paid to some are ridiculous (I'm self employed and its a combination of willingness to lower my price and increase my availability while keeping the level of quality high... has kept me in business - we all have to make changes in a recession.)

People fear the unknown.....people who were not properly informed last time voted NO, have they been informed of the changes - I dont know..... have the YES people gottan annoyed by the Government and their actions.

Ps. I'm not affiliated with any political organisation and have limited knowledge of politics - but I cant see any advantages of voting yes.

sigh not again

Sam Vimes

ShooterSF wrote: »

It is a sad fact though that it will probably come down to whether people buy into lies being peddled by some of the no side or the scaremongering peddled by some of the yes side.

You mean like the lie in your sig that Lisbon will be put to another referendum if we vote no?

Sam Vimes

PCPhoto wrote: »

I didnt vote the last time and I'm leaning towards a NO vote - mainly due to the fact that we already voted no and they throw it back again (ok with slight changes).

Significant numbers of people voted no because of the issues of taxation, neutrality, abortion, conscription and the commissioner. The commissioner issue has been rectified, it just didn't require a change to the treaty and the other issues have been guaranteed as not now nor ever having been related to Lisbon in any way and these guarantees are legally binding, despite what liars on the no side tell you. The people who voted no on those issues now no longer have a reason to vote no.

Add to that the fact that the biggest reason for rejection by far was lack of understanding. People have now had two years to learn about it and there is a wealth of information out there so they no longer have that reason to vote no

All of those reasons for rejection are no longer valid even though the treaty hasn't changed so why not give the people who voted no for those reasons an opportunity to change their minds?

PCPhoto wrote: »

if we vote yes - why does the voting stop ? .....why ?

best of my knowledge ... its actually against the Irish Constitution if we vote yes - my source is the relevant section of the constitution which was used to stop the Tipperary Farmer's action in the High Court recently - it basically says that under the Irish Constitution we have the right to change our minds on any decision and if we vote yes - that decision is removed from us...we wont be allowed to turn around next year and say actually ...we changed our minds...we dont want Lisbon ...we'd be told shut up its already here and nothing you can do about it.

We can have a referendum to remove our acceptance of Lisbon from our constitutution. The problem at that point is that we will be operating under Nice rules but the rest of the EU will be under Lisbon rules. We can't force these countries to go backwards. Effectively the EU we will be a member of won't exist anymore. Some arrangement probably could be come to but no one know what that arrangement might be, probably something like the arrangement between the EU and Switzerland.

A better way would be if we put it through and we find that certain parts of the treaty are having a negative effect we can negotiate for those parts of the treaty to be changed. Lisbon actually makes it easier to make small changes like that.

PCPhoto wrote: »

I also dont like the way that the Government is telling us we MUST vote yes, I agree that the "NO" campaign is misleading

Yes the government are idiots but this is not their treaty

PCPhoto wrote: »

.... I do expect minimum wage to drop...but then again prices and cost of living has already dropped, and minimum wage might drop anyway ....as the wages paid to some are ridiculous (I'm self employed and its a combination of willingness to lower my price and increase my availability while keeping the level of quality high... has kept me in business - we all have to make changes in a recession.)

The €1.84 minimum wage poster is a blatant lie and don't let anyone tell you otherwise

Euro_Kraut

I expect about 55% Yes off a 47% turnout.

The day of the vote we should have a prediction thread. See who's really got their finger on the pulse of the nation.

K-9

ShooterSF wrote: »

I done a wee bit of canvassing with a local group of fellow no thinkers but you never know if people really agree or are just being polite. If I thought the people I was talking to were the average I'd be somewhat confident.
I have been glad to see the polls on boards (which was very accurate last time) leaning towards a no vote and even more so the poll that showed discussion here was persuading a few former yes voters to vote no.
It is a sad fact though that it will probably come down to whether people buy into lies being peddled by some of the no side or the scaremongering peddled by some of the yes side.

I'd have my doubts about some of them Yes, turned No votes!

Encouraging for the Yes side, was the Don't know, voting Yes.

I think it could be close, but more confident in a Yes than I was a month ago.

ShooterSF

Sam Vimes wrote: »

You mean like the lie in your sig that Lisbon will be put to another referendum if we vote no?

I answered this yesterday in another thread. I don't want to go into it again and to be fair to the OP he specifically asked we stick to discussing the likelihood of the treaty passing.
(at the end of the day it is your opinion that another treaty won't happen but there is no reason for one not to)

ShooterSF

K-9 wrote: »

I'd have my doubts about some of them Yes, turned No votes!

Encouraging for the Yes side, was the Don't know, voting Yes.

I think it could be close, but more confident in a Yes than I was a month ago.

I suppose you can always doubt people sincerity in online polls but just hope they're honest. It's just as likely yes voters or no voters could have messed with it I guess.
To be honest I'm not AS confident this run as I was last time when I made a nice few quid from the no vote! I was certain of a no that time. This time I wouldnt be that shocked to see a yes vote.

SlimJ

Sam Vimes wrote: »

the biggest reason for rejection by far was lack of understanding.

I couldn't agree more, and now I have a question: Is anything else being voted on on that day?

My sense of the last vote was that folks were already going to the polls to vote in their local elections; while there, they voted "No" to this Lisbon thing they didn't understand.

Is this just a solo vote on Lisbon? If so, that might keep most of the "Undecided Reflexive No" vote at home.

bill_ashmount

Yes will win, despite the lies of the Yes campaign.

pieface_ie

Yes for jobs they say but where will all these jobs come from?

Martin 2

PCPhoto wrote: »

....
Ps. I'm not affiliated with any political organisation and have limited knowledge of politics - but I cant see any advantages of voting yes.

PCPhoto, I suppose it depends what you call an advantage, anyway here are 10 well thought out reasons to vote yes, link, based on the contents of the treaty, you may not agree with them but they are worth considering.
If you are agnostic to the contents of the treaty then maybe you could consider the economic consequences of a Yes or No vote, it's my considered opinion that a Yes is more likely to help the economy and a no more likely to damage it, I partially base this on the fact that the multinational sector and virtually all business organisations are supporting a yes, what's more in a recent survey of economists 91% felt that a yes would be better for the economy, link.
Don't get me wrong I'm not so naive as to believe that a yes is a panacea for all our economic ills but as I said before a Yes will likely help us and a No will likely hinder us.

Sam Vimes

ShooterSF wrote: »

(at the end of the day it is your opinion that another treaty won't happen but there is no reason for one not to)

No it's not my opinion. As Scofflaw says:

Scofflaw wrote: »

By the way, I'm not sure what "we'll just vote no again" means here. If we reject Lisbon again in October, that's it. The Treaty has a two-year lifespan, after which it goes back to the European Council

That is how it works. A different treaty might be put forward but that's a different matter entirely

Euro_Kraut

SlimJ wrote: »

I couldn't agree more, and now I have a question: Is anything else being voted on on that day?

My sense of the last vote was that folks were already going to the polls to vote in their local elections; while there, they voted "No" to this Lisbon thing they didn't understand.

Is this just a solo vote on Lisbon? If so, that might keep most of the "Undecided Reflexive No" vote at home.

It was a stand alone vote last year and will be again this year. I'm not sure how much an impact the local elections were in the voters mind. Is was held a good 10 months in advance of the locals.

Having said that some candidates (Labour were the most blatent as I recall) used the campagin to get their face on posters ahead the LE. At least this time candidates are largely decoupled from the treaty.

techdiver

I think it will pass this time, due mainly to the scaremongering going on from the yes campaign, which are tyring to place a link between the Lisbon Treaty and economic recovery, which is complete and utter crap.

To be balanced the No side are a shower of deluded gombeens. I really wish both sides could run a campaign based on real facts and reality and not flouting lies about what the implications of a yes or no vote would be.

It dismays me that either the assumed intelligence level or the actual intelligence level of this country has sunk below that of the US in terms of being bought over by sensationalism on both sides of this disgraceful campaign.

Sam Vimes

techdiver wrote: »

I think it will pass this time, due mainly to the scaremongering going on from the yes campaign, which are tyring to place a link between the Lisbon Treaty and economic recovery, which is complete and utter crap.

Can you tell me what Intel, Ryanair and IBEC have to gain from pretending that a yes vote to Lisbon will help the economy?

What about these people?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0909/1224254135032.html

Mr Cowen said all the main business groupings and the Irish heads of several multi-national firms were “crystal clear” in their view that reluctance to endorse the treaty, together with the resulting perception that “we are somewhat a-la-carte in terms of our commitment to Europe”, would make it more difficult to attract and secure inward investment.

“Those who argue otherwise would do well to listen to the employers’ representative groups, to the exporters of Ireland, to the farmers’ representative groups and to the employers themselves.

“Those who have experience of pursuing and securing inward investment, developing and exploiting export markets, or growing and expanding businesses, are united in their view that rejecting Lisbon will cost jobs.”

ShooterSF

Sam Vimes wrote: »

No it's not my opinion. As Scofflaw says:


That is how it works. A different treaty might be put forward but that's a different matter entirely

OT- Yes and what stops it coming from the European council back to us again? Does it say they have to scrap it?

techdiver

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Can you tell me what Intel, Ryanair and IBEC have to gain from pretending that a yes vote to Lisbon will help the economy?

What about these people?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0909/1224254135032.html

I really see no direct correlation between the Lisbon Treaty and employment prospects in Ireland.

The ridiculous "Yes in the city", posters are about as relevant. A NO vote doesn't remove us from the EU.

I'm glad you trust economic evaluation from a former minister for finance that displayed complete ineptitude regarding fiscal matters in Ireland during the so called boom years.

As my previous post stated, I am not for either side, I just want relevant facts about the treaty broadcast and the lies and scaremongering from both sides to stop.

PCPhoto

techdiver wrote: »

I really see no direct correlation between the Lisbon Treaty and employment prospects in Ireland.

The ridiculous "Yes in the city", posters are about as relevant. A NO vote doesn't remove us from the EU.

I'm glad you trust economic evaluation from a former minister for finance that displayed complete ineptitude regarding fiscal matters in Ireland during the so called boom years.

As my previous post stated, I am not for either side, I just want relevant facts about the treaty broadcast and the lies and scaremongering from both sides to stop.

totally agree with that.

I find the posters rubbish and have stopped reading them (as I said in a previous post I do expect the minimum wage to be dropped.... but I think that will happen regardless of result... and not a chance in hell it will drop to the proposed €1.84 .... if my understanding of the case laws are correct this will mean that companies will be allowed to employ workers from other EU countries and pay them their national wage - not really effecting me unless I work in that sector...and I dont...but these people wouldnt be able to financially survive in RIP-OFF Ireland earning that low a wage.)

Sam Vimes

ShooterSF wrote: »

OT- Yes and what stops it coming from the European council back to us again? Does it say they have to scrap it?

What stops it coming back from the European council is that they're not retarded. If you think that the reason the treaty was put to us a second time is because we gave the "wrong answer" and they want to force it through, it makes sense that it will come back from them exactly the same but of course that is one of many no campaign lies. It was put to us again, with the commissioner change and the guarantees, because those changes addressed the issues of far more people than would be needed for a second referendum to pass. The treaty was (mostly) the same, but those reasons for rejection are no longer valid (and some never were). Anyone whose issues were not addressed last time are never going to be addressed with the treaty in it current form and there is absolutely no point putting the same treaty back to the people if there is no chance of it passing.

but tell me, if it gets voted down this time and a survey is done and, say, 40% of no voters did so because they thought the guarantees weren't legally binding, 30% because they thought the minimum wage would be lowered to €1.84 and 20% because they thought the treaty was "self-amending", why shouldn't they run it again? None of those issues are relevant to Lisbon so the people will not have rejected Lisbon, they will have rejected lies that have been hurled at Lisbon. What is so wrong with correcting those misconceptions and asking people if they've changed their minds in light of the correction?


Also, as I said here, I have no idea what the EU will do if we vote no again. There is no point in ever putting forward a treaty again as long as we are members

Sam Vimes

techdiver wrote: »

I really see no direct correlation between the Lisbon Treaty and employment prospects in Ireland.

The ridiculous "Yes in the city", posters are about as relevant. A NO vote doesn't remove us from the EU.

I'm glad you trust economic evaluation from a former minister for finance that displayed complete ineptitude regarding fiscal matters in Ireland during the so called boom years.

I'm not trusting a former minister of finance, I'm trusting the Irish heads of several multi-national firms, employers’ representative groups, the exporters of Ireland, farmers’ representative groups and the employers themselves. As the article says, those who have experience of pursuing and securing inward investment, developing and exploiting export markets, or growing and expanding businesses, are united in their view that rejecting Lisbon will cost jobs.

Do you not think it's possible that the people who are directly involved in this area might see a correlation that you don't?

edit:
"Yes in the city" =/= "We'll be kicked out if we vote no". No one has ever claimed that we'll be kicked out but Europe wants to move on and a few hundred thousand misinformed people on the peripheries can't stop them forever. They will, and are perfectly entitled to, rewrite the treaty to exclude Ireland, only enacting the changes that Ireland can opt out of. That way they get most of the changes they want and we get to stay where we are, all on our own.

That and Ireland will have voted no to EU treaties three time if it gets voted down again. Businesses looking to locate in the EU to get access to the common market will have a choice of a country that's very expensive to do business in, has very little value other than as a jumping off point to the rest of the EU and has three times said that they don't share the same vision of Europe as the rest of the EU. That's a big risk to take when there are cheaper countries that have all the advantages of being in the EU and aren't fighting them every step of the way.

So, in short, no one's saying we're getting kicked out of the EU but that's not the only way Ireland can be negatively effected

nesf

ShooterSF wrote: »

I suppose you can always doubt people sincerity in online polls but just hope they're honest. It's just as likely yes voters or no voters could have messed with it I guess.
To be honest I'm not AS confident this run as I was last time when I made a nice few quid from the no vote! I was certain of a no that time. This time I wouldnt be that shocked to see a yes vote.

I'd love to be able to say that boards.ie polls are a good barometer on public opinion but in reality they're really not. The one before the last election had a guaranteed FG/Lab coalition in Government and some decent seat gains for SF, both of which most certainly didn't materialise.

ShooterSF

Sam Vimes wrote: »

but tell me, if it gets voted down this time and a survey is done and, say, 40% of no voters did so because they thought the guarantees weren't legally binding, 30% because they thought the minimum wage would be lowered to €1.84 and 20% because they thought the treaty was "self-amending", why shouldn't they run it again? None of those issues are relevant to Lisbon so the people will not have rejected Lisbon, they will have rejected lies tat have been hurled at Lisbon. What is so wrong with correcting those misconceptions and asking people if they've changed their minds in light of the correction?

Nothing. That's my point. If that was the outcome the treaty could happily be re-ran. Get a guarantee on the minimum wage. If need be edit the treaty on the commission issue and ask other nations to ratify again after we did (if we did). Maybe remove the article discussing further amendments. It's only causing confusion and makes little change anyway.
I have already said I would much rather a decided accurate No vote but see an undecided No vote as a better option than any yes vote. Though I would reluctantly accept a yes vote based on the treaty.

ShooterSF

nesf wrote: »

I'd love to be able to say that boards.ie polls are a good barometer on public opinion but in reality they're really not. The one before the last election had a guaranteed FG/Lab coalition in Government and some decent seat gains for SF, both of which most certainly didn't materialise.

What about the one before the last Lisbon vote? It was pretty accurate if memory serves me correct. Anywho it's not a huge deal...

Scofflaw

ShooterSF wrote: »

What about the one before the last Lisbon vote? It was pretty accurate if memory serves me correct. Anywho it's not a huge deal...

Unfortunately, we have had, this time, certain posters over from politics.ie, who encouraged No posters there to "come and make their presence felt" in the polls here.

cordially,
Scofflaw

ShooterSF

Scofflaw wrote: »

Unfortunately, we have had, this time, certain posters over from politics.ie, who encouraged No posters there to "come and make their presence felt" in the polls here.

cordially,
Scofflaw

They must be pretty bored :pac: I can't understand a forum full of people fascinated with politics screwing up polls on political issues. (Not that I'm questioning your claim btw)

Sam Vimes

ShooterSF wrote: »

Nothing. That's my point. If that was the outcome the treaty could happily be re-ran. Get a guarantee on the minimum wage. If need be edit the treaty on the commission issue and ask other nations to ratify again after we did (if we did). Maybe remove the article discussing further amendments. It's only causing confusion and makes little change anyway.
I have already said I would much rather a decided accurate No vote but see an undecided No vote as a better option than any yes vote. Though I would reluctantly accept a yes vote based on the treaty.

Firstly, that's not going to happen. I can tell you that right now. People are already pissed off about a second referendum so a third is just going to make it worse. It's not going to happen, you know that, I know that and having that in your sig is dishonest.

Secondly I would point out that if they edit the commission issue again it's not the same treaty.

Thirdly, do you not think it's wrong to advise people not to bother learning about the treaty on the basis that they can make up their mind later? Do you not think there are any possible consequences of a no vote? And do you think it's acceptable to deny 26 other countries a treaty they've ratified (or will soon ratify) because we're not bothered reading it?


And finally I'll tell you why it won't be re-ran in its current form. I've been dancing around this issue but it's probably better to say it. It's because the Irish people are too fucking stupid for it to be run again. We already got guarantees and people don't believe them. We got the commissioner issue changed and we have people every day going on with that "not one comma" bullsh!t. If it's put out again there'll be a whole host of new lies made up for us to get guarantees about, which we then won't believe. There is no point running this treaty again mostly for the same reason there's no point running any treaty ever again. The Irish people will.not.listen.to.reason

Killguru

I hoping for no. Were Ireland, not a state in europe, We might as well throw away 600 years of fighting for independance if we vote yes. Im not hanging an EU flag anywhere in my house as yet.

Its the very same treaty as before.

I think it'll be another no.

marco_polo

ShooterSF wrote: »

They must be pretty bored :pac: I can't understand a forum full of people fascinated with politics screwing up polls on political issues. (Not that I'm questioning your claim btw)

Of course they are bored, because there are nothing there but endless threads of the same four or five people agreeing with each other that the EU is indeed the route of al evil.

Anyway I digress

ShooterSF

Sam Vimes wrote: »

Firstly, that's not going to happen. I can tell you that right now. People are already pissed off about a second referendum so a third is just going to make it worse. It's not going to happen, you know that, I know that and having that in your sig is dishonest.

People are annoyed yet it is being re-run. The same people will be annoyed if re-ran again. I see no difference.

Secondly I would point out that if they edit the commission issue again it's not the same treaty.

A rose by any other name etc....

Thirdly, do you not think it's wrong to advise people not to bother learning about the treaty on the basis that they can make up their mind later? Do you not think there are any possible consequences of a no vote? And do you think it's acceptable to deny 26 other countries a treaty they've ratified (or will soon ratify) because we're not bothered reading it?

This bit bugs me. I don't advise not bother learning. I said if someone is undecided. You know where you inform yourself but can't decide which option is better..

And finally I'll tell you why it won't be re-ran in its current form. I've been dancing around this issue but it's probably better to say it. It's because the Irish people are too fucking stupid for it to be run again. We already got guarantees and people don't believe them. We got the commissioner issue changed and we have people every day going on with that "not one comma" bullsh!t. If it's put out again there'll be a whole host of new lies made up for us to get guarantees about, which we then won't believe. There is no point running this treaty again mostly for the same reason there's no point running any treaty ever again. The Irish people will.not.listen.to.reason

If that's true then why bother running any at all?

nesf

ShooterSF wrote: »

What about the one before the last Lisbon vote? It was pretty accurate if memory serves me correct. Anywho it's not a huge deal...

My point was that the average person who comes on here and votes isn't a good sample for the average voter. People over 35 are rare on here while they'd make up almost the majority of voters.

We'll see times when the boards poll is close to the real result but this will be more down to chance than boards polls being accurate. They're an interesting reflection on the mood of more politically engaged younger voters but they're no substitute for a properly conducted poll using proper sampling techniques etc.

Sam Vimes

ShooterSF wrote: »

People are annoyed yet it is being re-run. The same people will be annoyed if re-ran again. I see no difference.

People have no reason to be annoyed at it being run again. It seems the government and the EU made the mistake of crediting them with enough intelligence to see that the differences between this referendum and the last one and the valid reasons for the re-run. I doubt they'll make that mistake again.

ShooterSF wrote: »

A rose by any other name etc....

which is exactly the problem. If objections are given and those objections are addressed, the percentage figure that remains the same and the time between referendums doesn't make any difference. But people don't seem to be able to grasp that.

ShooterSF wrote: »

This bit bugs me. I don't advise not bother learning. I said if someone is undecided. You know where you inform yourself but can't decide which option is better..

They have had two years to decide. If they haven't decided in two years, what makes you think they'll decide in 20?

ShooterSF wrote: »

If that's true then why bother running any at all?

This is the whole point I'm making and one of the main reasons that Ireland's reputation will be damaged by a no vote. As long as our vote is being manipulated by liars and used as a stick to beat the government, writing any new treaties will simply be a waste of money

Sam Vimes

Sam Vimes wrote: »

This is the whole point I'm making and one of the main reasons that Ireland's reputation will be damaged by a no vote. As long as our vote is being manipulated by liars and used as a stick to beat the government, writing any new treaties will simply be a waste of money

And don't forget, it's also a waste of money as long as people are being told it's ok to keep voting no forever if they can't make up their mind and that the wishes of the other 500 million people in Europe don't matter. If someone can't make up their mind on the best way to vote, they shouldn't vote. Simple as.

Scofflaw

ShooterSF wrote: »

They must be pretty bored :pac: I can't understand a forum full of people fascinated with politics screwing up polls on political issues. (Not that I'm questioning your claim btw)

Have you been on politics.ie at all? "Fascinated with politics" is far too kindly a description of what appears in many cases to transcend mere obsession and assume the proportions of a mental illness.

amused,
Scofflaw

Martin 2

techdiver wrote: »

I think it will pass this time, due mainly to the scaremongering going on from the yes campaign, which are tyring to place a link between the Lisbon Treaty and economic recovery, which is complete and utter crap.

To be balanced the No side are a shower of deluded gombeens. I really wish both sides could run a campaign based on real facts and reality and not flouting lies about what the implications of a yes or no vote would be.

It dismays me that either the assumed intelligence level or the actual intelligence level of this country has sunk below that of the US in terms of being bought over by sensationalism on both sides of this disgraceful campaign.

As you say the campaigning on both sides has been lacking but I think it's been better this year, especially on radio, they have regular sections on Radio 1 Drivetime and/or Morning Ireland where they simply get an expert to explain different aspects of the treaty and if you want you can send in a question, I'd say if you search the RTE website under Sean Whelan, Justice Frank Clark, Drivetime and Morning Ireland you'll find some informative audio downloads.

Btw, a lot of us are sacrificing a lot of our own personal time to campaign (or just inform) for or against this treaty whether on the ground or on websites or wherever and we are certainly not all guilty of lying or scaremongering.

ShooterSF

Scofflaw wrote: »

Have you been on politics.ie at all? "Fascinated with politics" is far too kindly a description of what appears in many cases to transcend mere obsession and assume the proportions of a mental illness.

amused,
Scofflaw

I think I was on it once. I made what I thought was a safe assumption that politics.ie was a forum full of people obsessed with politics. My bad so!:pac:

Re: Sam
We're not going to agree on this and there's little point of us spinning in circles repeating our opinions on an issue to be fair is OT on the OP...

techdiver

Martin 2 wrote: »

As you say the campaigning on both sides has been lacking but I think it's been better this year, especially on radio, they have regular sections on Radio 1 Drivetime and/or Morning Ireland where they simply get an expert to explain different aspects of the treaty and if you want you can send in a question, I'd say if you search the RTE website under Sean Whelan, Justice Frank Clark, Drivetime and Morning Ireland you'll find some informative audio downloads.

Btw, a lot of us are sacrificing a lot of our own personal time to campaign (or just inform) for or against this treaty whether on the ground or on websites or wherever and we are certainly not all guilty of lying or scaremongering.

I have nothing against anyone trying to do their bit on either side to spread the truth, in fact I wish there was more, so don't get me wrong. You're the type of person I have respect for. My issues is with the bombardment or posters and leaflets that really don't get to the crux of the issue and are simply trying to eclipse each other with sensational slogans.

What I say is more of people like you on both side and less of the tabloid type posters and leaflets.

nesf

ShooterSF wrote: »

I think I was on it once. I made what I thought was a safe assumption that politics.ie was a forum full of people obsessed with politics. My bad so!:pac:

People obsessed with politics aren't very useful to have in large quantities doing your polls. The average voter is very very far from being obsessed with politics. Never mind caring enough to post on a politics only bulletin board.

Sam Vimes

ShooterSF wrote: »

Re: Sam
We're not going to agree on this and there's little point of us spinning in circles repeating our opinions on an issue to be fair is OT on the OP...

We don't have to repeat our opinions, you could respond to mine and tell me why they're invalid. Or better yet, you could remove from your sig that untrue and anti-democratic statement that will damage the country if anyone follows it.