Guess the NAMA figure!

fricatus

Time for a bit of fun lads... no discussion of NAMA here - just put down the figure you reckon Brian Lenihan will announce in the Dáil this afternoon - the figure in billions of euros, not the percentage.

The first person to post the correct figure will win an exciting prize - they will be named King Of This Thread!

I'll go first: €54 bn

hobochris

€61Bn.

no reason for the guess, just have a feeling.

Riskymove

€64bn

jprender

68.2 Big Ones

Nihilist21

62.4

afatbollix

78.6bill

Blazer

€85 billion.
Lenihan said €120 million (Gross) would be allocated towards it..lots of playing around with figures on their part :mad:

cavedave

20

Aligator Farmer

I think they'll do it in stages, so I'm going for 32 Billion today, with more announcements to follow.

yom 1

€73.2bn

TheSpecialOne

70 Billion!

Sesshoumaru

55

flanzer

2 bob!!


Nah.......anything more than 60bn will be a travesty. I'll go for 75bn

kippy

I dont think the figures are that simple to be honest.
I still dont know if anyone knows how many "loans" the banks need to sell to Nama (and even if they may need to sell more to them in the future)

However just to stick with a theme of the thread I reckon a figure of 34 Billion will be mentioned today.

Het-Field

Book debts 80 Billion !

Actual Debts......????????

60 Billion +. Coughlan et al will overspend. Guarantee it !

SkepticOne

Is the estimated market value figure (the important one in my opinion) going to be produced.

Rondolfus

One marble short of a deck of cards (in Euro, cash)

gotBass

€58.4 bn

spank_inferno

about 3-fiddy

crocro

And the answer is 54 billion of bonds, a 30% discount on book value of 77 billion of assets.
The split is
Anglo:28 billion
AIB: 24 billion
BoI: 16 billion
Nationwide: 8 billion
EBS: 1 billion

Current market value is estimated at 47 billion so the gift to the banks is 7 billion.

loyatemu

54 billion
€54,000,000,000

I don't know whether NAMA is the right move or not, but thats an awfully big figure - can the Greens, and FF backbenchers really turn around to their "supporters" and say "we're giving the banks, the guys that fúcked up in the first place, €54,000,000,000 of your money"? It's going to be a very tough sell, I smell an election...

fricatus

Our little competition is over! The amount to be paid is €77bn according to the Irish Times! :eek:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0916/breaking4.htm

Edit: €54bn to be paid on €77bn of assets... apologies!!!

fricatus

And the king of the thread... well, it's actually...

ME



:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:

fricatus

loyatemu wrote: »

54 billion
€54,000,000,000

I don't know whether NAMA is the right move or not, but thats an awfully big figure - can the Greens, and FF backbenchers really turn around to their "supporters" and say "we're giving the banks, the guys that fúcked up in the first place, €54,000,000,000 of your money"? It's going to be a very tough sell, I smell an election...

How much tax revenue is that? 18-19 months' worth? Stupid bastards is all I can say! :mad:

Arciphel

The AIB exposure is a lot bigger than I thought. Also, I thought EBS would be in the hundred of millions and not a billion?

crocro

Annual interest will be 810 million at current rates. This will go up by 540 million for every 1% that ECB rates rise from their current historic low.

Danno

Time to get out - I am certainly not staying around to pay this.

SkepticOne

Love the way Lenihan spins it by calling it a 30% "discount". A discount is normally the amount below the market value that you get to pay. The 30% here refers to the percentage below the "book value" which is largely irrelevant. The "book value" is the amount a company would pay back but only in the event that it survived to do so. The reason the banks are in trouble is that there's very little faith in international markets in the ability of these developers to pay back that money.

SkepticOne

Danno wrote: »

Time to get out - I am certainly not staying around to pay this.

You want to have some country you can call your homeland though don't you though?. Even if you live in, say, Australia for the next 30 years, you still want the option of returning to something with a functioning economy.

stepbar

crocro wrote: »

And the answer is 54 billion of bonds, a 30% discount on book value of 77 billion of assets.
The split is
Anglo:28 billion
AIB: 24 billion
BoI: 16 billion
Nationwide: 8 billion
EBS: 1 billion

Current market value is estimated at 47 billion so the gift to the banks is 7 billion.

80% of Irish Nationwide's total assets!!! 80 fcuking per cent!!!!

Dannyboy83

SkepticOne wrote: »

You want to have some country you can call your homeland though don't you though?. Even if you live in, say, Australia for the next 30 years, you still want the option of returning to something with a functioning economy.

Maybe they can provide him with some affordable housing now with all these empty assets?:pac:

Danno

How may times will we have to pay for our property? I purchased a house. I payed alot of that figure in VAT and Tax etc... The interest on the purchase will nearly equate the original value, next the Govt want a property tax, and now my tax on my earnings will go towards bailing out the banks/developers for other property! This is a total urine take.

Kev_ps3

So 60 billion of taxplayers money is transfered to the elite in this country. The biggest robbery in the history of the state in nearly done.

Dannyboy83

Danno wrote: »

How may times will we have to pay for our property? I purchased a house. I payed alot of that figure in VAT and Tax etc... The interest on the purchase will nearly equate the original value, next the Govt want a property tax, and now my tax on my earnings will go towards bailing out the banks/developers for other property! This is a total urine take.

Well, I guess if an Irish citizens buys one of those NAMA properties, they will pay twice in effect, won't they?
Before you ever add property tax or whatever.

Banter Joe

fricatus wrote: »

And the king of the thread... well, it's actually...

ME



:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:

That's cheating Brian!

crocro

stepbar wrote: »

80% of Irish Nationwide's total assets!!! 80 fcuking per cent!!!!

Their assets were last stated as 14.4 billion.

It is 80% of their non-bank loan book. 8 billion is their entire commercial development loan book. They only have about 2 billion in residential mortgages.

spank_inferno

The book value of the assests = 77 billion

current market value = 47 billion

thats a 30 billion drop already!, thats the scary part
In 2 years time what will this "nominal 77 billion be really worth?
77 million perhaps.

Its truelly awfull that these loans have already dropped by such a vast amount and we havent even had the keys handed over yet!

So on day 1 its a net gift to the banks of 7 billion euro

So on top of the state garauntee, the monies to AIB & BOI & the money to Anglo we've given them a net sum of €17 billion....

Jesus wept, as did I

Liam Byrne

crocro wrote: »

And the answer is 54 billion of bonds, a 30% discount on book value of 77 billion of assets.

Current market value is estimated at 47 billion so the gift to the banks is 7 billion.

I see ABSOLUTELY NO DISCOUNT.

If you went into a car dealer and they said "here's a car that's worth €20,000, but I'll sell it to you for €23,000 because it might be worth €30,000 next year", would you consider the €23,000 a DISCOUNT ?????

I swear that if anyone from FF arrives on my doorstep over the next 10 years I'm going to bring out the ****ing chainsaw and put Texas to shame!

And I'd emigrate except for the fact that I'm not a Ceann Comhairle so I wouldn't be travelling first class and would have to pay their airport "exit tax".

SkepticOne

spank_inferno wrote: »

current market value = 47 billion

To make matters worse, firstly this is merely an estimate overseen by the same people who failed to see problems in the economy and secondly, we will also have to pay for likely further falls in this figure as developers' financial situations continue to deteriorate and the value of their underlying properties falls in value. I'm not inclined to believe in estate agents and the like who say we've hit bottom, the same people attacked as irresponsible those who merely suggested that what is happening right now was even possibility a couple of years ago.

LOL what discount?
Its a buzzword to cover a lie.

Loans are 77billion
Lenihan said in the Dail that property prices have dropped 50%.

50% of 77 billion is less than 47 Billion so there is NO DISCOUNT :mad:

greengrocer

SkepticOne wrote: »

Love the way Lenihan spins it by calling it a 30% "discount". A discount is normally the amount below the market value that you get to pay. The 30% here refers to the percentage below the "book value" which is largely irrelevant. The "book value" is the amount a company would pay back but only in the event that it survived to do so. The reason the banks are in trouble is that there's very little faith in international markets in the ability of these developers to pay back that money.

I'm not trying to defend paying above-market for these assets, but I would like to clarify the difference between book value and principal value. Book value is the value the assets are carried at on the banks' balance sheets, which has subtracted any provisions for losses from the principal value of the loan (the amount originally borrowed). My understanding is that BoI/AIB took provisions in the region of 7% against their property loan book and I'm not certain what kind of provisions Anglo has had to take (one would hope it's large!).

I'm open to correction on this point but I just think that the discount to principal value is somewhat larger than 30%. If nothing else, this would at least provide me with some shred of comfort that the €47bn market value mentioned approximates a realistic estimate and that you could look at the €7bn gift and convince yourself that that could be a reasonable down-side case in terms of cost to the taxpayer (of course this is all just conjecture with the level of info currently in the public domain). I guess my point is that the proposal doesn't match my worst-case scenario and I look ahead with a little less fear to more info being provided.

greengrocer

Deleted User wrote: »

LOL what discount?
Its a buzzword to cover a lie.

Loans are 77billion
Lenihan said in the Dail that property prices have dropped 50%.

50% of 77 billion is less than 47 Billion so there is NO DISCOUNT :mad:

Blindjustice,

Do bear in mind that the govt is acquiring loans backed by property, not property itself. Remember that in the not so distant past there was a massively overheated property market, in which developers pretended to put in "equity" on top of the generous loans they received. This equity and debt combined to create fairytale property prices, from which the "market" has fallen in the region of 50% to-date (where the real market is remains to be seen).

SLUSK

yet again Ireland has proven to be a proper banana republic, run by gombeen men.

SkepticOne

greengrocer wrote: »

I'm not trying to defend paying above-market for these assets, but I would like to clarify the difference between book value and principal value. Book value is the value the assets are carried at on the banks' balance sheets, which has subtracted any provisions for losses from the principal value of the loan (the amount originally borrowed). My understanding is that BoI/AIB took provisions in the region of 7% against their property loan book and I'm not certain what kind of provisions Anglo has had to take (one would hope it's large!).

Thanks for the clarification. I think, however that both the book value and principal value are both largely irrelevant here. If you are talking about a discount you are really talking about the amount to be paid below market value. If the market value of the loans are 47 billion and we are paying 54 billion then we are paying a 15% premium for these assets based on figures generated by the department. Whether it is book value or principal value makes no difference here.

I've already made the point that the 47 billion is likely to be a highly optimistic estimate and also that whatever is the current market value it is likely to deteriorate in the future.

A Dub in Glasgo

I find it amazing that people will vote for this shower as they rob the taxpayer blind. They do not even have to wear masks!

amacca

stepbar wrote: »

80% of Irish Nationwide's total assets!!! 80 fcuking per cent!!!!

I know, I was speechless when he read out the figures broken down by institutions too.

AIB v. bad, BOI bad but not as bad as AIB, EBS bad, a bit worse than expected....................................................................................


IRISH NATIONWIDE!!!!!!!!!! FFS, WTF! (The deathstar is currently hovering around your home planet powering up for a coup de grace)

Looks like fingers fingleton was operating one of the greatest speculation vehicles known to man. Casino, is a wrong analogy as the house always wins. This is more like the kind of car crash you would expect to be the final outcome of the kind of seperated, degenerate, alcoholic gambling addict you see hanging around the blackjack tables in the lowest rent casino in vegas at four in the morning.

Absolutely incredible for what was supposed to be a small building society, how come more is not being made of this.

Irish nationwide, you are the weakest link, goodbye!

Thats just embarassing, It should have been wound down quietly a long time ago.

dresden8

SkepticOne wrote: »

I've already made the point that the 47 billion is likely to be a highly optimistic estimate and also that whatever is the current market value it is likely to deteriorate in the future.

Were these valuations done by the same "experts" who got thrown out of the high court twice for their estimates based on fantasy.

These people are liars and this is theft.

Pure and simple.

amacca

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I'm going to bring out the ****ing chainsaw and put Texas to shame!

effing brilliant turn of phrase! I'm keeping that for re-use in other contexts.


Unfortunately, I suspect we are the ones being massacred here.

fricatus

Banter Joe wrote: »

That's cheating Brian!

Hehe, it took me a few minutes to get that one... very good!

And no, I'm not Brian! But I did have some help from Fionnán Sheahan on Tonight with Vincent Browne on TV3 last night in fairness - I think he may have mentioned the exact figure of €54 bn

FRICATUS FTW

In fact, fricatus for Taoiseach! I'd do a whole lot better than that shower!

It's just beginning to sink in how cavalier this government, the bankers and the regulators have been with our entire economic futures. The more that comes out, the more I'm convinced that we should have only guaranteed AIB, BOI, IL&P and the EBS and let the rest (especially Anglo and Nationwide) go to the wall.

It really is time for a revolution - a peaceful one, mind you - but a revolution nonetheless, to kick these basterds out. :mad:

ephelan24

Watching RTE News this evening and apparently 15% of the housing stock of Westmeath is new/empty and will soon be owned by you and me!!! I don't care how big the 'discount' is and the spin on social housing benefits to the taxpayer. Nobody wants these properties and they will more than likely be bulldozed in the future. Lenehan tells us that the banks now owe us their gratitude. More likely, they should be happy not finding themselves behind bars instead of being granted this appalling bail out.

dresden8

fricatus wrote: »

And no, I'm not Brian! But I did have some help from Fionnán Sheahan on Tonight with Vincent Browne on TV3 last night in fairness - I think he may have mentioned the exact figure of €54 bn

Would that be FF's tame hack Fionnan getting privileged information before the house?

If he did get inside information that could lead to meddling in share prices I hope somebody goes to jail.