Apartments price drop 3rd phrase

I have been following the prices of a complex of apartments in Bettystown Co.Meath as im looking to buy there. I was born and bred there one of very few! So id like to remain in the area.

The Residences apartments were first launched in 2006 at a starting price of 275,000 for a two bed.
In nov 2008 second phrase was launched at a starting price of 245,00 for a 2 bed.
In june 09 the 3rd phrase was launched at the same nov prices and i dont think many sold. They relaunched this week end at a starting price of 125,000 for a two bed. I put down a holding deposit on a 90.4 sqm 2 bed priced at 152,500. SO in 06 terms this would be proberly be in the 300k mark. (It has dropped 17.5k since june)
I put down deposit as it i was able to choose one of the nicest ones, south facing a balcony and terrace etc etc and to give me time to seriously think about going ahead with. I have a 10% deposit saved and the mortgage would be 4x my salary.

The cons against this are that i was told (off record) the builders have said they cant lower prices any further and if at least 10 of the 38 units dont sell they will close up and resell when the property market inproves (whenever that will be) Plus they wont be ready until feb or march. It seems scary buying in these days for something that wont be ready for 6 months but as the value has gone down by 50%ish can it go any further?

Any opinions or advice would be appreciated!!

irlrobins

I'd be getting my solicitor to look very closely at the contracts and see what clauses there are if the builder doesn't sell the required number of apartments. I'd also look to get a definite completion date. All with the aim of ensuring that you don't lose your deposit.

silverharp

very general advice would be not to buy anything where you are not 100% sure if the development will be fully completed or sold, for one thing you could have problems with maintenance fees etc.

Theboinkmaster

Deleted User wrote: »

I have been following the prices of a complex of apartments in Bettystown Co.Meath as im looking to buy there. I was born and bred there one of very few! So id like to remain in the area.

The Residences apartments were first launched in 2006 at a starting price of 275,000 for a two bed.
In nov 2008 second phrase was launched at a starting price of 245,00 for a 2 bed.
In june 09 the 3rd phrase was launched at the same nov prices and i dont think many sold. They relaunched this week end at a starting price of 125,000 for a two bed. I put down a holding deposit on a 90.4 sqm 2 bed priced at 152,500. SO in 06 terms this would be proberly be in the 300k mark. (It has dropped 17.5k since june)
I put down deposit as it i was able to choose one of the nicest ones, south facing a balcony and terrace etc etc and to give me time to seriously think about going ahead with. I have a 10% deposit saved and the mortgage would be 4x my salary.

The cons against this are that i was told (off record) the builders have said they cant lower prices any further and if at least 10 of the 38 units dont sell they will close up and resell when the property market inproves (whenever that will be) Plus they wont be ready until feb or march. It seems scary buying in these days for something that wont be ready for 6 months but as the value has gone down by 50%ish can it go any further?

Any opinions or advice would be appreciated!!

Run a mile - could be selling for €50k in 2 years time. The builders can and will sell at a lower price as if they go into liquidation the banks will sell them for something. €20k per apartment is better than nothing would be the banks view.

Also 4x salary for them is far too much. What do they currently rent at per month? Take the annual rent times 14 to give you idea of true value.

The property market will never improve to the extent you're talking about.

Also your history on what they did cost years ago is completely irrelevant.

To answer your question about going down further - YES they most likely will. Property like that can possibly decrease by 80% off peak no problem...

Again run a mile DO NOT BUY, no harm in being patient and see what they're like in a year. I know lots of people living in apartment blocks which are half completed or lived in and life is very difficult.

A wise person learns from other people's mistakes :cool:

Sand Wedge

OP you have done the research on this development yourself and are in the best position to judge whether it suits you. As you are looking to stay and live in the area you obviously are not looking for a quick turnaround and even if prices drop further in the long run you should be ok. 'Theboinkmaster' comments are just a rant.

kmick

There are a lot of ifs and buts coming from the builders. Personally I would never enter a transaction where the success or failure depends on a 3rd party i.e. you wont get your property until at least 10 are sold. Id run a mile then get in my car and drive another 10.

D3PO

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Run a mile - could be selling for €50k in 2 years time. The builders can and will sell at a lower price as if they go into liquidation the banks will sell them for something. €20k per apartment is better than nothing would be the banks view.

Talk about mass hysteria. If your going to post something at least have some realism and basis behind it. What your spouting is so inconcievable its funny.

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Also 4x salary for them is far too much. What do they currently rent at per month? Take the annual rent times 14 to give you idea of true value.

Yes because according to you there worth 20k probably so should be less than 1x annual salary :rolleyes:

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

The property market will never improve to the extent you're talking about.

To what extent ? He hasnt said to what extent, why are you making presumptions ?

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Also your history on what they did cost years ago is completely irrelevant.

Of course its relevent, it gives people on here an idea and extrent of the property drops so far and how far it is to be likely form the bottom.

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

To answer your question about going down further - YES they most likely will. Property like that can possibly decrease by 80% off peak no problem...

Based off what ? Rather than spouting off rethoric from tabloid economists how about putting some basis aroudn your comments

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Again run a mile DO NOT BUY, no harm in being patient and see what they're like in a year. I know lots of people living in apartment blocks which are half completed or lived in and life is very difficult.

A wise person learns from other people's mistakes :cool:

Personally I wouldnt buy in that situation either, but the difference is Im not going to come out with implausible and incredibly exagerated reasons for it :cool:

Himselfe

D3PO wrote: »

Personally I wouldnt buy in that situation either, but the difference is Im not going to come out with implausible and incredibly exagerated reasons for it :cool:

What reasons would you give for not buying then? You're tearing apart someone elses reasons and advice and then you're giving the same advice (as in don't buy).

pearcider

What reasons would you give for not buying then? You're tearing apart someone elses reasons and advice and then you're giving the same advice (as in don't buy).

+1

Urban apartments in a rural area like Bettystown? Pure lunacy from the bubble. You'd be mental to buy that when you'll get a big gaf with garden and no management fees there for that money within 5 years. 50k is actually a fair valuation by the boinkmaster.

D3PO

pearcider wrote: »

+1

. 50k is actually a fair valuation by the boinkmaster.

seriously some people here have lost all grip on reality. Yes properties were and are still overpriced in this country but to think prices will regress to that level is at best ill informed.

D3PO

Himselfe wrote: »

What reasons would you give for not buying then? You're tearing apart someone elses reasons and advice and then you're giving the same advice (as in don't buy).

Im tearing apart somebody elses reasons ? Really am I ? Id say Im tearing apart stupid comments like its worth 20k

if you actually read the post I was responding to he has given NO reasons not to buy.

Anyway to satisfy you I wouldnt buy for the following reasons.

1. Property isnt finished. Homebond gaurantee on your deposit only lasts 2 years. The builder says he will finish this early next year, but also says if he doesnt shift enough he will wait for a better economic environment. TO me that puts your deposit at a serious risk as who knows how liquid this builder is ?

2.I believe the property itself is overpriced still in todays market. You only have to look on daft or myhome to see you can get a 2 bed apartment in a far better location in Dublin for the same kind of money this is being offered at. That said to say its worth 20k is absolute lunacy

Theboinkmaster

D3PO wrote: »

Im tearing apart somebody elses reasons ? Really am I ? Id say Im tearing apart stupid comments like its worth 20k

if you actually read the post I was responding to he has given NO reasons not to buy.

Anyway to satisfy you I wouldnt buy for the following reasons.

1. Property isnt finished. Homebond gaurantee on your deposit only lasts 2 years. The builder says he will finish this early next year, but also says if he doesnt shift enough he will wait for a better economic environment. TO me that puts your deposit at a serious risk as who knows how liquid this builder is ?

2.I believe the property itself is overpriced still in todays market. You only have to look on daft or myhome to see you can get a 2 bed apartment in a far better location in Dublin for the same kind of money this is being offered at. That said to say its worth 20k is absolute lunacy

I stand by my comments. Yes my post didn't have all the support/references it maybe should have however i typed it in a rush and was just trying to help the OP not to make a huge mistake.

Where do I say it's worth €20k?! If you read my post properly I said that if the developer could not sell them and went into liquidation and the bank sold them they could IMO go for €20k in a fire sale. Due to the type of development and location. €20k in a fire sale when there are over 100,000 empty properties in Ireland (and rising) in a ghost estate in Bettystown could EASILY happen.

OP can I suggest you do some more research here and over at www.thepropertypin.com. All advice here seems to suggest not to buy.

Best of luck

Theboinkmaster

D3PO wrote: »

seriously some people here have lost all grip on reality. Yes properties were and are still overpriced in this country but to think prices will regress to that level is at best ill informed.

D3PO you require a serious reality-check. Those apartments could easily fall to €50k.

An apartment in Bettystown, given the type of development, location, transport links etc etc should easily be just 1.5 x the average industrial wage (which by the way is falling).

Average industrial wage in 4 years could be €25k - then this apartment would be twice that. €50k then would seem reasonable enough.

The Insider

OP if I was you I would not go ahead with the purchase. 150k for a 2-bed apartment in Bettystown is seriously over-priced.

Give it another year or two and for the same money you will be able to buy a 3-bed semi-detached.

D3PO

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I stand by my comments. Yes my post didn't have all the support/references it maybe should have however i typed it in a rush and was just trying to help the OP not to make a huge mistake.

Where do I say it's worth €20k?! If you read my post properly I said that if the developer could not sell them and went into liquidation and the bank sold them they could IMO go for €20k in a fire sale. Due to the type of development and location. €20k in a fire sale when there are over 100,000 empty properties in Ireland (and rising) in a ghost estate in Bettystown could EASILY happen.

im sorry but to suggest the bank would offload these for 20k in a firesale is nonsense.

The bank would rather hold the properties and rent them out than sell at that price, besides which NAMA would likely own the loans and any default on them would be handled and property disposed of by NAMA

NAMA is a terrible idea but to suggest NAMA will get rid of property in a firesale as about 15% of its current value is frankly just stupid.

D3PO

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

D3PO you require a serious reality-check. Those apartments could easily fall to €50k.

An apartment in Bettystown, given the type of development, location, transport links etc etc should easily be just 1.5 x the average industrial wage (which by the way is falling).

Average industrial wage in 4 years could be €25k - then this apartment would be twice that. €50k then would seem reasonable enough.

Im sorry you have just lost any and all credibility. You think average industrial wage could drop from 38k to 25k in a 5 year period are you out of your mind ?

So the minimum wage for a full time worker working a 40 hour week in ireland is nearly 18k but the average industrial wage could be 25k ? your cracking me up here :D:D

Please you need to understand economics, you making yourself out to be really silly.

Theboinkmaster

D3PO wrote: »

im sorry but to suggest the bank would offload these for 20k in a firesale is nonsense.

The bank would rather hold the properties and rent them out than sell at that price, besides which NAMA would likely own the loans and any default on them would be handled and property disposed of by NAMA

NAMA is a terrible idea but to suggest NAMA will get rid of property in a firesale as about 15% of its current value is frankly just stupid.

Current "value" means absolutely nothing as you're talking about current asking price, not VALUE

Theboinkmaster

D3PO wrote: »

Im sorry you have just lost any and all credibility. You think average industrial wage could drop from 38k to 25k in a 5 year period are you out of your mind ?

So the minimum wage for a full time worker working a 40 hour week in ireland is nearly 18k but the average industrial wage could be 25k ? your cracking me up here :D:D

Please you need to understand economics, you making yourself out to be really silly.

Average industrial wage isn't €38k - it was about €33k at the end of 2008. That's before the majority of wage cuts in 2009.

And yes over 5 years the average insustrial wages needs to drop to €25k for us to complete with other EU countries. Whether it will or not is debatable however it could easily happen IMO.

Anyway we're splitting hairs here - both of us agree the OP shouldn't buy we're just disagreeing over the eventual value of the property in question so I'm happy to agree to disagree

D3PO

please stop deflecting the point and explain to me how the average wage could drop 50% in a 5 year period.

explain to me how you think property values / asking prices whatever you want to call it will drop a further 66% or 85% "if" there is a firesale.

what your saying has no economic basis at all. I laugh at some of the bulls on here, but your so far the opposite that its even less credible

D3PO

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Average industrial wage isn't €38k - it was about €33k at the end of 2008. That's before the majority of wage cuts in 2009.

average industrial wag was 38k in 2007 if you read my post you will see i have alread allowed for the reduction in terms of the yearly period ive used (id ive said 50% drop in 5 years rather than the percentage drop over the coming 4 years :rolleyes:

oh and where are you getting your 33k from end of 2008

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rnlabcosts.pdf have a read of that and then tell me the average wage is 33k

Theboinkmaster

D3PO wrote: »

average industrial wag was 38k in 2007 if you read my post you will see i have alread allowed for the reduction in terms of the yearly period ive used (id ive said 50% drop in 5 years rather than the percentage drop over the coming 4 years :rolleyes:

oh and where are you getting your 33k from end of 2008

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rnlabcosts.pdf have a read of that and then tell me the average wage is 33k

I've better things to be doing than repeatedly responding to your posts. I was simply trying to help the OP and hopefully they will do the research and reach their own conclusions.

You win I lose happy now :P

ZYX

D3PO wrote: »

average industrial wag was 38k in 2007 if you read my post you will see i have alread allowed for the reduction in terms of the yearly period ive used (id ive said 50% drop in 5 years rather than the percentage drop over the coming 4 years :rolleyes:

oh and where are you getting your 33k from end of 2008

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rnlabcosts.pdf have a read of that and then tell me the average wage is 33k

You are both talking about different things. Average industrial wage (which boinkmaster was talking about) was a bit less than 33K in 2008. Average earnings (which you were talking about) were above 38,000.

To be honest as the vast majority of people in this country are not industrial workers, using average industrial wage is pretty meaningless.

Thanks for all the replies. The going rental prices for 2 bed apartments in bettystown is on average 700e so applying the 14x forumlua it works out at €117600.
I have also put up this topic on property pin as well if anyone was over there. Iv thought about it and im going to the EA tomorrow and withdraw my deposit. I had really put it down just to give me time to think about it and research it more as this launch was last minute. By living at home iv managed to save €19k in two years through careful budeting! I think its a lot safer with me at the time being than leaving it in builder limbo land. Id rather go back renting and keep my deposit and review the situation next year.

A fortune teller did tell me i would live in a big house with a big garden so ya never know!!

Thanks everyone

Lazyk

I also had a deposit on one of those apartments in the 3rd phase since Nov 2008 and decided to pull out last sept 2009 and transfer my deposit to another development in Bettystown. The builder is really unsure what to do with this block and I personally was not willing to live in an unfinished property while paying the likes of a managment fee etc, for a facility that will never be finished by the sound of things. I had asked the question, would the builder maybe put them on the 'rent to buy scheme' to try and sell them but I was told he was not interested in it . Bettystown is a great location for a start up property but it would be a real shame to see this development left derelict. I think the answer is obvious in this case, that you would be better off looking somewhere in the bettystown area as you may be waiting a couple of years for this to ever materialise......

dan_d

Setting aside the money OP, ask the builder what happens if you buy and he doesn't manage to sell anymore, or "enough". Does he close up shop then and leave you living in a derelict building site indefinitely?
I'd be hearing alarm bells in this situation.

shoegirl

D3PO wrote: »

im sorry but to suggest the bank would offload these for 20k in a firesale is nonsense.

The bank would rather hold the properties and rent them out than sell at that price, besides which NAMA would likely own the loans and any default on them would be handled and property disposed of by NAMA

NAMA is a terrible idea but to suggest NAMA will get rid of property in a firesale as about 15% of its current value is frankly just stupid.

But rents are also in trouble. While a lot of stuff at the bottom of the market is being artificially propped up by rent allowance, drops in this and welfare packages are likely to end up as falling rents. The problem is that there is just such a huge glut of vacant properties - finished, sold and unsold and available for rent. If NAMA gets into renting they will be dumping properties on an already saturated market but at the same time they won't want to "dilute" asking rents for existing or other NAMA properties.

So what will they do?

What is currently being done and sit on the vacancies for longer in the hope that the market will improve. If the supply is artificially reduced then it follows that there is a better probability of reigniting prices (though not guaranteed).

Its basically interfering with the market supply by drip feeding onto it and its shocking that despite all we've been through those with "power" in the market. The only caveat in this "system" is that the effective owner has enough cash to cover their existing costs in the no-income period.

Just drive around any heavily built town in Dublin or Leinster at night and count the number of lights - massive numbers of properties are being wihheld from the sale/rental market for fear of increasing the glut and encouraging further slumps. The people who selling/renting more cheaply are often people who don't have the working captial to pay current liabilities and have to bring in some kind of income.

shoegirl

D3PO wrote: »

please stop deflecting the point and explain to me how the average wage could drop 50% in a 5 year period.

Its a possibility if unemployment remains stubbornly high, credit tight and if the minimum wage is held at current levels or removed. If welfare falls in real terms - or entitlement to it is restricted or limited, this would incentivise working for lower pay. I doubt it will fall 50% - more likely 15-20% allowing for inflation/deflation adjustments.

itarumaa

hmm,

2 bed 700e apartment to rent in Bettystown or 3 bed house in Maynooth for 800e, what to choose?

That is one major problem with those apartments, when house rent prices are going down, what will happen to aparment prices,

D3PO

shoegirl wrote: »

Its a possibility if unemployment remains stubbornly high, credit tight and if the minimum wage is held at current levels or removed. If welfare falls in real terms - or entitlement to it is restricted or limited, this would incentivise working for lower pay. I doubt it will fall 50% - more likely 15-20% allowing for inflation/deflation adjustments.

tightening of credit has no bearing on average wages whatsoever, and the minimum wage held at current levels actually supports the average industrial wage, preventing non skilled labor and low value job wages from dropping

so neither of these would factor into a 50% average wage drop. There is no possibility that the average wage will drop by 50% for a plethora of reasons not least that its almost mathematically impossible

lets take either the average wag or average earnings figures from earlier in the thread so thats 33k or 38k take your pick

lets work from the higher figure 50% of 38k is 19k to have an average wage of 19k your esentially saying everybody in the country that is in employment will be working for the minimum wages including CEO's , boards of directors etc.

wages on average have dropped and may well drop further but 50% is not possible. Some of the figures in this thread are a bit throwaway. Banks firesales of property for 20k, average wages dropping by 50%. Im not a bull in this economy but I try and make sure theres some basis to my comments.

P.S not all directed to this quote but to lazy to seperate it out. I do think your prediction of 10-15% drops of the average wage is too high aswll though although accept that disposable incomes may very well reduce by that much

The_Conductor

Guys- calm down.
I think everyone is singing off the same hymn sheet here.....
No need to be jumping down each other's throats.......

fontanalis

Lazyk wrote: »

I also had a deposit on one of those apartments in the 3rd phase since Nov 2008 and decided to pull out last sept 2009 and transfer my deposit to another development in Bettystown. The builder is really unsure what to do with this block and I personally was not willing to live in an unfinished property while paying the likes of a managment fee etc, for a facility that will never be finished by the sound of things. I had asked the question, would the builder maybe put them on the 'rent to buy scheme' to try and sell them but I was told he was not interested in it . Bettystown is a great location for a start up property but it would be a real shame to see this development left derelict. I think the answer is obvious in this case, that you would be better off looking somewhere in the bettystown area as you may be waiting a couple of years for this to ever materialise......

How would you define a start up property?