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Red C Opinion Poll - 52% Yes

  • 12-09-2009 4:31pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭


    I understand that tomorrows Sunday Business Post Red C Opinion Poll will show a result of:

    62% - Yes
    23% - No
    15% - Don't Know

    Excluding undecideds that gives 73% Yes, 27% No.

    Edit: These figures, it appears, only relate to those so stated they were 'very likely' to vote. According to RTE the figure for all respondents are

    52% - Yes
    25% - No
    23% - Don't Know


    The SBP themselves have not made any distinction in this short report on their website:
    Poll shows strong support for Lisbon
    12/09/2009 - 18:42:51

    A new opinion poll shows support for the Lisbon Treaty remains strong with just under three weeks to go to the referendum.

    The survey shows more than six out of ten Irish people would now vote in favour of Lisbon.

    It shows 23% say they will vote against the EU reform measures, while 15% are still undecided ahead of the ballot on October 2.
    http://www.sbpost.ie/breakingnews/ireland/eycwgbkfmhau/


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 877 ✭✭✭Mario007


    Euro_Kraut wrote: »
    I understand that tomorrows Sunday Business Post Red C Opinion Poll will show a result of:

    62% - Yes
    23% - No
    15% - Don't Know

    Excluding undecideds that gives 73% Yes, 27% No.

    wow thats a huge lead for the yes side, even if the dont knows go to to no camp...however i don't want the yes camp to get too comfortable and stop campaign.

    EDIT: I guess this shows us why Ganley is returning....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 169 ✭✭di2772


    I think the Minimum wage €1.84 poster has done more for the yes camp than anything else.

    If the no camp can lie that blatantly, then nobody can believe a word they put on a poster.

    I was a havent decided before, but im going with yes now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    Euro_Kraut wrote: »
    I understand that tomorrows Sunday Business Post Red C Opinion Poll will show a result of:

    62% - Yes
    23% - No
    15% - Don't Know

    Excluding undecideds that gives 73% Yes, 27% No.

    OMG it's all a conspiracy against the No campaign. :rolleyes::D:eek:



    Sorry couldn't resist, good to hear that sense might be returning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,118 ✭✭✭✭My name is URL


    Didn't Red C predict a lanslide Yes last time round?

    Anyhoo, we don't even know what the question asked was, and there's not even a link to back this up.. "I understand" is hardly convincing!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 619 ✭✭✭O'Morris


    meglome wrote:
    Sorry couldn't resist, good to hear that sense might be returning.

    It's not sense, it's fear.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 27 BlondieCait


    Didn't Red C predict a lanslide Yes last time round?

    :pac: All opinion polls are faked, the dogs on the street know this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    does anyone have a link to any polls in the lead up of last years referendum around the same 2-3 weeks to go time frame?


    just so it can be compared and contrasted


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Rb


    O'Morris wrote: »
    It's not sense, it's fear.

    And who can blame them, what with slimey statements such as "Vote Yes for Jobs" targetting the poor down and outs who haven't a job at the moment.

    The greedy manipulating the terrified, yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

    Disgusting.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 27 BlondieCait


    Rb wrote: »
    yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

    :rolleyes:

    First off the poll is faked, and secondly are you speaking of the "cowards" that voted NO in the face of the exact same propaganda last time around?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    :rolleyes:

    First off the poll is faked, and secondly are you speaking of the "cowards" that voted NO in the face of the exact same propaganda last time around?

    I would be cautious of accusing any business of faking their results. Here is a link to their website and how they gather and manipulated the data. The results may be genuine for the people they polled however as with all polls there is margin for error.

    Red C only spoke to 1000 people who have phones.

    The only valid poll will be October 2.

    http://www.redcresearch.ie/themethodology.html


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,118 ✭✭✭✭My name is URL


    :rolleyes:

    First off the poll is faked, and secondly are you speaking of the "cowards" that voted NO in the face of the exact same propaganda last time around?

    Same propaganda, but now with 30% more people taking notice due to circumstances created by the same government that'll be protected by a Yes vote =)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 268 ✭✭Martin 2


    di2772 wrote: »
    I think the Minimum wage €1.84 poster has done more for the yes camp than anything else.

    If the no camp can lie that blatantly, then nobody can believe a word they put on a poster.

    I was a havent decided before, but im going with yes now.

    I think you’re right however I’m currently canvassing for a Yes on the street and I’ve been asked a few times if the minimum wage will be E1.84 after Lisbon so unfortunately some people do believe the posters… at least it’s easy to dismiss


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    Martin 2 wrote: »

    I think you’re right however I’m currently canvassing for a Yes on the street and I’ve been asked a few times if the minimum wage will be E1.84 after Lisbon so unfortunately some people do believe the posters… at least it’s easy to dismiss

    and if they asked " will there be jobs if I vote Yes" would you lie to them knowing that there is nothing in the treaty that says there will be jobs?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 619 ✭✭✭O'Morris


    Martin 2 wrote:
    I think you’re right however I’m currently canvassing for a Yes on the street and I’ve been asked a few times if the minimum wage will be E1.84 after Lisbon so unfortunately some people do believe the posters… at least it’s easy to dismiss

    Are people asking you if we'll be kicked out of Europe if we vote no?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,132 ✭✭✭Dinner


    I would be cautious of accusing any business of faking their results. Here is a link to their website and how they gather and manipulated the data. The results may be genuine for the people they polled however as with all polls there is margin for error.

    You're right, they do have a margin of error... of a whopping 3%.

    Any proof of them manipulating their data or would you rather just smear another polling company and dismiss statistics?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    does anyone have a link to any polls in the lead up of last years referendum around the same 2-3 weeks to go time frame?


    just so it can be compared and contrasted

    You know what will happen on the day - FF, FG and anyone who has a car will round up all their feeble minded elderly relatives and drive them to the polling station and remind them to vote Yes.

    They'll go in and say "that little fecker, ever since s\he had TD asspirations only ever shows up when s\he wants me to vote on something. Then s\he has the feckin' cheek to tell me how to vote. I'll show him\her" and then promptly vote No :-)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    Dinner wrote: »
    You're right, they do have a margin of error... of a whopping 3%.

    Any proof of them manipulating their data or would you rather just smear another polling company and dismiss statistics?

    Yes right here http://www.redcresearch.ie/polling_techniques.html

    Manipulation is a technical term You can also use the term "massage".

    If you had ever worked in an operation that uses statistics as a business tool you would know this.

    You appear to think that just collecting the numbers is all that is involved. It's a bit more complicated than that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,132 ✭✭✭Dinner


    You appear to think that just collecting the numbers is all that is involved. It's a bit more complicated than that.

    And you seem to think that surveys are only valid for the people they surveyed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    Dinner wrote: »
    You're right, they do have a margin of error... of a whopping 3%.

    Any proof of them manipulating their data or would you rather just smear another polling company and dismiss statistics?

    A 3% error is their published error. As this is a phone poll they have to rely on the person on the other end of the phone being truthful and honest. This can cause dirty data which is difficult to eliminate.

    Also it is entirely possible that some of the people contacted will have a vested interest.

    I'm not accusing or smearing anyone. I am suggesting that polling or surveying is not always the best way to collect your data.

    This is why we have polling stations open on a particular day for a certain amount of time and the only data collected is the number of Yes or No votes.

    I'm running out of eggs here - can you not suck yet?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 27 BlondieCait


    Dinner wrote: »
    And you seem to think that surveys are only valid for the people they surveyed.

    And he would be right.

    If you do a poll on who is going to win the premier league, would standing outside Old Trafford compared to the Emirates have any effect?

    As for polling companies, YES they are all bought and paid for.

    Catch yourself on.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    Dinner wrote: »
    And you seem to think that surveys are only valid for the people they surveyed.

    The data is only valid for the data collected. They could try Cochrane Collaboration methods but in general they don't.

    Besides the electorate is well in excess of 400,000 and they sample 1000.

    That's a little over 0.0002%

    Statistically significant? Go figure


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    The data is only valid for the data collected. They could try Cochrane Collaboration methods but in general they don't.

    Besides the electorate is well in excess of 400,000 and they sample 1000.

    That's a little over 0.0002%

    Statistically significant? Go figure


    would you say the same about

    http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055615489

    almost 1000 votes now as well

    or only polls that dont agree with you are "insignificant"?



    does anyone have any polls from before last treaty?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    O'Morris wrote: »
    It's not sense, it's fear.
    Rb wrote: »
    And who can blame them, what with slimey statements such as "Vote Yes for Jobs" targetting the poor down and outs who haven't a job at the moment.

    The greedy manipulating the terrified, yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

    Disgusting.
    Same propaganda, but now with 30% more people taking notice due to circumstances created by the same government that'll be protected by a Yes vote =)

    I don't doubt there's some element of fear in people's decision to vote Yes. Many people have realised just how much we really do need the EU this time around. However I don't think the Yes campaign are scaremongering per se.

    But guys I'm really sick of the whining from the No campaign which did nothing but lie and scaremonger to win the last time. You made that bed now you might have to lie in it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 268 ✭✭Martin 2


    and if they asked " will there be jobs if I vote Yes" would you lie to them knowing that there is nothing in the treaty that says there will be jobs?
    Even though I tend to talk about the multinational sector and jobs therein on this site, I don’t mention that while canvassing, I think most people take it as a given that voting yes is more likely than a No to benefit the economy so they don’t question it. If I were asked, with reference to the treaty, I’d say that the Energy and Environmental provisions have the potential to create jobs in green energy technology development.

    On O’Morris’s point, I was asked that question once and I replied that there is no danger of the EU kicking us out after a No…


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    meglome wrote: »
    I don't doubt there's some element of fear in people's decision to vote Yes. Many people have realised just how much we really do need the EU this time around. However I don't think the Yes campaign are scaremongering per se. But guys I'm really sick of the whining from the No campaign which did nothing but lie and scaremonger to win the last time. You made that bed now you might have to lie in it.

    im still waiting to see on positive NO poster

    all that negativity is gonna backfire on them


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    A 3% error is their published error. As this is a phone poll they have to rely on the person on the other end of the phone being truthful and honest. This can cause dirty data which is difficult to eliminate.

    Also it is entirely possible that some of the people contacted will have a vested interest.

    I'm not accusing or smearing anyone. I am suggesting that polling or surveying is not always the best way to collect your data.

    This is why we have polling stations open on a particular day for a certain amount of time and the only data collected is the number of Yes or No votes.

    I'm running out of eggs here - can you not suck yet?

    I heard that God was biased against the No campaign.

    (I've said that already. The oppression complex some of your guys have is starting to get on my nerves.)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,136 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    would you say the same about

    http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055615489

    almost 1000 votes now as well

    or only polls that dont agree with you are "insignificant"?



    does anyone have any polls from before last treaty?

    In fairness, I would think RED C are a bit better at the polling business than boards.ie. For one thing Red C would be better at weeding out any duplicate accounts that posted or any groups of people sent from politics.ie or whereever to upset the poll.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    im still waiting to see on positive NO poster

    all that negativity is gonna backfire on them

    Exactly


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,118 ✭✭✭✭My name is URL


    Stark wrote: »
    In fairness, I would think RED C are a bit better at the polling business than boards.ie. For one thing Red C would be better at weeding out any duplicate accounts that posted or any groups of people sent from politics.ie or whereever to upset the poll.

    Do you have any more info on this phantom poll by Red C? It's mentioned on a few sites without any source given.

    For all anyone knows, the question was "Will you vote the same again?".. kind of turns it on its head then


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    would you say the same about

    http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055615489

    almost 1000 votes now as well

    or only polls that dont agree with you are "insignificant"?



    does anyone have any polls from before last treaty?

    Apologies - I didn't have the previous polls but I have a recollection that the last poll suggested ~60% for.

    Firstly I did not use the term "insignificant". The term statistically significant has a meaning in statistics that is related to the data and the sample size against a measure of whether or not the result is affected be certain factors.
    Additionally random sampling of telephone numbers is not strictly speaking a random sample of the electorate as there are people who do not have phones or who choose screen their calls. On top of this Red C, while it may have a 24/7 polling operation- I don't know this - there can be noise generated in the data depending on when they call.

    Most businesses in Ireland work 9-5 or 8-6 or whatever. If Red C only called people during the day then most of the land line numbers would be people not working. They probably do factor this in to their normal data cleansing and "adjusting" - I won't use the term manipulation because some people think this is a form of data fixing. It's not but as I've said I've run out of eggs and now the needle is blunt - as with most polls it should be taken for what it is. A random poll that more than likely will bear little relation to the result on the day. See previous polls for examples.

    Now the poll you present is the poll from boards.ie. Again this is open to being "dirty data" due to the fact that some posters here may have multiple personalities - sorry, accounts - and the data in this poll cannot be trusted. Also it is not a random sample and those included are in general middle class living or working in an area with access to a PC and the internet.

    So in short, no I do not agree with that poll for the reasons outlined.

    Now, if only 1000 people in this country have a PC with internet access and are members of boards.ie with a sufficient interest in Lisbon to bother clicking one of the options on the poll you presented then there are 445,5347 or whatever other people who are not getting the benefit of the discussions here.

    So can I suggest to you to get out there and canvass. Both you - go on, Yes campers and No campers. off you go.

    And if you are planning on driving granny to the polling station - be nice and visit her a couple of times beforehand.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,399 ✭✭✭Kashkai


    While everyone here is shouting "vote yes" or "vote no", one itty bitty issue has been overlooked and that is the great unwashed went against the wishes of the politicians, the employers, the unions and everone else in high society and said NO last time. Shouldn't that have been it then???? (rhetorical question as we were supposed to vote yes and we'll have to keep on voting until we do what we are told - bit like the wife nagging you until you eventually relent and just do what she wants to shut her up :rolleyes:).

    I was neutral last time and didn't vote due to the appalling lack of sound information from either side. It appears that not much has changed, i.e.

    No side - the €1.84 minimum wage :p. The great EU dictatorship will take "away our freedoms won by the 1916 rebels" etc etc

    Yes side - we'll lose jobs if we vote no. Er aren't we losing jobs hand over fist anyways and have been for years due to pricing ourselves out of the market place. Multinationals are still going to move to China et al for their bargain basement labour rates anyway even if we do vote yes.

    I'm voting no purely because the democratic decision of my fellow citizens in 2008 was utterly ignored by our national leaders as well as the EU so to hell with them. Probably not a good enough reason for the "Yes" camp but thats democracy in action.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,644 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Guys, do not under any circumstances post here stating that a poll is rigged or faked without providing ample evidence. Seriously, a ban for the next person to do this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,644 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Didn't Red C predict a lanslide Yes last time round?

    No it was the first poll to show the No side gaining ground and momentum on the Yes side in the last referendum: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0426/lisbon.html


    For reference their poll directly a week the last referendum had Yes 43% No 38%, with the No side showing a strong trend over the previous 6 months going from 25% to 38% and gaining support in each subsequent poll done by RedC which shows that their method while not perfect, did capture a fairly good picture of what was happening on the ground (i.e. that the No side were hoovering up undecided voters). (Details: http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBP8thJunePollReport.pdf)

    Their post Lisbon poll done with the same methodology had No 51% Yes 49%. (Details: http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/PostReferendumPollJune2008-Chartset_000.pdf)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,644 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    I would be cautious of accusing any business of faking their results. Here is a link to their website and how they gather and manipulated the data. The results may be genuine for the people they polled however as with all polls there is margin for error.

    Red C only spoke to 1000 people who have phones.

    The only valid poll will be October 2.

    http://www.redcresearch.ie/themethodology.html

    1000 people in the sample is pretty standard. It'll be roughly similar for most other polls.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 877 ✭✭✭Mario007


    Do you have any more info on this phantom poll by Red C? It's mentioned on a few sites without any source given.

    For all anyone knows, the question was "Will you vote the same again?".. kind of turns it on its head then

    its on the rte website i think. and thats a pretty credible site, to be fair.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,644 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Rb wrote: »
    And who can blame them, what with slimey statements such as "Vote Yes for Jobs" targetting the poor down and outs who haven't a job at the moment.

    The greedy manipulating the terrified, yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

    Disgusting.

    Were you equally disgusted by the abortion, neutrality and other nonsense posters from the No campaign in Lisbon I? I don't remember you complaining about them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,644 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    For reference for people new to polls:

    We're not interested in the exact numbers here, what we're looking for are trends across all the polls. Last time the trend was for the No side to pick up votes in poll after poll and for the Yes side to haemorrhage them. The Yes side may have been "ahead" in the polls a week before the referendum but the momentum was all behind the No side and that was the most valuable piece of information from the polls.

    Here, assuming this poll is real, is interesting but it's relatively meaningless until next week when the next set or results start coming out and we get to see where the trend in voter movement between the two sides is.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭P. Breathnach


    The data is only valid for the data collected. They could try Cochrane Collaboration methods but in general they don't.

    Besides the electorate is well in excess of 400,000 and they sample 1000.

    That's a little over 0.0002%

    Statistically significant? Go figure

    It is a large enough sample to be statistically significant on questions of this type. Cut out the innuendo.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    I'm voting no purely because the democratic decision of my fellow citizens in 2008 was utterly ignored by our national leaders as well as the EU so to hell with them. Probably not a good enough reason for the "Yes" camp but thats democracy in action.

    If the democratic decision of your fellow citizens was ignored the Lisbon treaty would have been ratified which it wasn't. That however doesn't stop the government calling another referendum, as has happened a number of times in the past. If we had such a problem with these multiple votes we should have campaigned to have our constitution changed. but to my knowledge no one has done that. Now when we add to that only 28% of the electorate voted No and of those 66% voted because they didn't know, or for things that were not in the treaty, or have been addressed. All this says to me it's VERY democratic to vote again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    Rb wrote: »
    And who can blame them, what with slimey statements such as "Vote Yes for Jobs" targetting the poor down and outs who haven't a job at the moment.

    The greedy manipulating the terrified, yet also greedy cowards that make up our nation's voters.

    Disgusting.

    Maybe people are terrified of the poster showing the 'worker' getting anally raped by the gavel. Perhaps they will vote 'yes' just to get rid of it.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,892 ✭✭✭allthedoyles


    As you all know , there is always light at the end of the tunnel.

    And you will find that a YES vote will lead to a turn-around in the Irish economy .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭Euro_Kraut


    Hi guys, some ambiguity about the figures I gave earlier. It appears those results may have been only for voters who said they were 'very likely' to vote. This is backed up by the RTE report here: http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0912/lisbonpoll.html but possibly contradicted by the SBP own website report here: http://www.sbpost.ie/breakingnews/ireland/eycwgbkfmhau/

    I guess when the actual paper comes out we will know exactly.

    According to RTE the figure for all respondents are

    Yes - 52%
    No - 25%
    Don't Know - 23%

    These figures are lot closer to the Irish Times poll last week.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 619 ✭✭✭FutureTaoiseach


    Red C had an appalling record in Lisbon I in terms of getting it wrong. They even included in their last poll fieldwork from the week before the last of the campaign. RTE portrayed this as a swing back to the yes side, following the no vote in the TNS-MRBI poll, and that was disproven on polling day. What I find especially disingenuous is that the Sunday Business Post link to their breaking-news section doesn't - as you said - point out that it's just more like 5 out of ten when all voters are included. I also question the use of "likely voter" models in Irish referenda. A Libertas figure has also informed me that Red C are working for FF and "Ireland for Europe" in this campaign and have refused to work for anyone from the no side when asked.
    And you will find that a YES vote will lead to a turn-around in the Irish economy .
    And if it doesn't a lot of people are going to feel cheated. I, for one, don't accept the campaign is over. The impact of Ganley's re-entry to the campaign remains to be seen. 67,000 votes was a strong performance for a new candidate in a party founded just months before, and with 100,000 votes nationally (5.4%) I would have thought this will give the no side at least a small boost, especially in the middle-classes and voters concerned with the economy, for whom Ganley's undoubted success as an entrepreneur may carry some credibility in an referendum that mightn't have been as relevant in an election, where tribal-loyalties have been the downfall of many a new political-party. We live in a country where only 25% of the electorate are truly up for grabs if you're not FF-FG-Labour. Ganley got approx 20% of that vote.
    Meglome wrote:
    If the democratic decision of your fellow citizens was ignored the Lisbon treaty would have been ratified which it wasn't. That however doesn't stop the government calling another referendum, as has happened a number of times in the past. If we had such a problem with these multiple votes we should have campaigned to have our constitution changed. but to my knowledge no one has done that. Now when we add to that only 28% of the electorate voted No and of those 66% voted because they didn't know, or for things that were not in the treaty, or have been addressed. All this says to me it's VERY democratic to vote again
    On this business of "what was not in the Treaty", you are failing to recognise that much in it is open to interpretation and that is where the ECJ will come in. The no side has consistently brought up the question of Article 48, Article 113 TFEU and Article 28a(3) (mutual-assistance clause). Even RTE's Seán Whelen admitted he was very uncertain what exactly mutual-assistance would mean in practice. At the end of the day, judges - not politicians - are going to end up interpreting what's in this Treaty. I am also curious as to whether you are including in 'not in the treaty', the 16% who - in the govt's research cited 'loss of power/independence', or the 26% who cited "specific treaty elements". And we all know from bitter experience in Ireland how unpredictable that process can be with respect to the Irish Constitution and Irish law.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 133 ✭✭realismpol


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    im still waiting to see on positive NO poster

    all that negativity is gonna backfire on them

    Nice one with the oxymoron. But seriously i guess your right. I think all that negativity will backfire on the no side....but then people will soon forget about all that nonsense once they pass lisbon and a few months to a year down the line realise what they have really let themselves in for. Hey im voting yes and ill admit but not because i believe in lisbon quite the opposite. I just want to see the look on the faces of people when they come to realise what lisbon really means for this country and its people. :pac:

    Hey you get what you deserve in life.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 619 ✭✭✭FutureTaoiseach


    When I brought the likely-voters part of the poll (saying 62% yes) with my friend Colm - a fanatical supporter of the Treaty - he texted back "Think is MUCH closer" and "Don't believe it". So as a matter of interest I would like to ask the forum this question: Do you think the Red C poll is how it's going to turn out on October 2nd? After all, they were badly wrong in the Lisbon I polls, with a lead for the yes side in all of them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    When I brought the likely-voters part of the poll (saying 62% yes) with my friend Colm - a fanatical supporter of the Treaty - he texted back "Think is MUCH closer" and "Don't believe it". So as a matter of interest I would like to ask the forum this question: Do you think the Red C poll is how it's going to turn out on October 2nd? After all, they were badly wrong in the Lisbon I polls, with a lead for the yes side in all of them.

    I'm getting more optimistic of a Yes vote. In Lisbon 1 two friends of mine were heading off that evening to vote Yes. But they met a customer of theirs who explained if they voted Yes they wouldn't get to vote on future EU treaty's. Obviously they now know this wasn't true but at the time they switched, last minute. My feeling is that happened quite a bit with the scare tactics used by the No campaign and could explain the difference between the polls and the results. This time out I'd like to think the polls will be more accurate as the same tactics won't work as well.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    meglome wrote: »
    I'm getting more optimistic of a Yes vote. In Lisbon 1 two friends of mine were heading off that evening to vote Yes. But they met a customer of theirs who explained if they voted Yes they wouldn't get to vote on future EU treaty's. Obviously they now know this wasn't true but at the time they switched, last minute. My feeling is that happened quite a bit with the scare tactics used by the No campaign and could explain the difference between the polls and the results. This time out I'd like to think the polls will be more accurate as the same tactics won't work as well.

    there was phone campaign in galway on the last day

    where people (mostly women with children) were rang up and a rumor was spread

    that their children would be conscripted

    no joke

    talk about scaremongering :mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,082 ✭✭✭✭Spiritoftheseventies


    Polls are what they are. Polls. If they were accurate, FF would be in opposition right now. Know PP have reduced the odds on the Yes Vote since Ganley entered race but citizens should vote on principle. If you dont agree with treaty vote No, if you do vote yes. Ignore the Polls and bookies. They are a distraction and irrelevant.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,611 ✭✭✭✭Sam Vimes


    While everyone here is shouting "vote yes" or "vote no", one itty bitty issue has been overlooked and that is the great unwashed went against the wishes of the politicians, the employers, the unions and everone else in high society and said NO last time. Shouldn't that have been it then????

    It hasn't been overlooked. You are the 1,034,273,528th person to make the same invalid point on this forum


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,611 ✭✭✭✭Sam Vimes


    realismpol wrote: »
    Nice one with the oxymoron. But seriously i guess your right. I think all that negativity will backfire on the no side....but then people will soon forget about all that nonsense once they pass lisbon and a few months to a year down the line realise what they have really let themselves in for. Hey im voting yes and ill admit but not because i believe in lisbon quite the opposite. I just want to see the look on the faces of people when they come to realise what lisbon really means for this country and its people. :pac:

    Hey you get what you deserve in life.

    I too want to see the look on people's faces when they realise what Lisbon really means. When* it gets passed and the sky very noticeably doesn't fall down the look on all the doomsayers faces will be hilarious.

    They've all had the same dire predictions for every treaty we've signed up to. They were wrong before and they're wrong this time too

    *assuming it will be. I don't have much confidence


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