TNS/MRBI poll, FF at 17%

Pride Fighter

FF 17%
FG 34%
Labour 24%
SF 10%

Government satisfaction

11% Satisfied
4% dont know
85% Dissatisfied

In tomorrows Irish times and was just on the 9 o clock news.

Wow.

Edit to add link: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0903/1224253745882.html?digest=1

dresden8

Anybody any idea how many seats FF would likely get with those results?

Pride Fighter

This is huge news. I'll take a stab at seat numbers if an election were to happen, using these figures.

FF- 35 seats
FG- 65 seats
Labour- 42 seats
Greens- 0
SF- 7 seats
Independents + PBP + SP- 16

Pride Fighter

dresden8 wrote: »

Anybody any idea how many seats FF would likely get with those results?

I just took a guess based on the numbers. But with PR-STV it can be tough to guess. Take my figures with a pinch of salt.

tedstriker

Could be to do with this:
Live register figures & Unemployment rates.

The next 4-6 months is going to be f*cking depressing in this country. The recession is really going to start hitting home for many people.

Lockstep

Would PBP get a seat?


Socialists would get at least 1 (Plus a new MEP as Joe would probabaly co-opt his seat)

Pride Fighter

kickoutthejams wrote: »

Would PBP get a seat?


Socialists would get at least 1 (Plus a new MEP as Joe would probabaly co-opt his seat)

PBP will get 2, so will the SP. PBP will win in Dun-Laoighre and Dublin South Central. SP will win in Dublin west and Dublin North. Thats what I think anyway.

Time Magazine

Pride Fighter wrote: »

This is huge news. I'll take a stab at seat numbers if an election were to happen, using these figures.

FF- 35 seats
FG- 65 seats
Labour- 42 seats
Greens- 0
SF- 7 seats
Independents + PBP + SP- 16

Good estimates. One thing though: SF on 10% only getting 7 seats? Labour got 10.1% in 2007 and took home 20.

But with FG holding 65 seats, SF would be irrelevant tbh.

Pride Fighter

The Economist wrote: »

Good estimates. One thing though: SF on 10% only getting 7 seats? Labour got 10.1% in 2007 and took home 20.

But with FG holding 65 seats, SF would be irrelevant tbh.

SF get hardly any transfers. With the spectre of Northern Ireland casting its shadow over the party it will only be another 10-20 years when the party is more transfer friendly. Labour will get FF and FG transfers, FG people will say rather Labour than FF and FF people will say the opposite. The possibility of a Labour/FF and SF coalition is there with the figures I have put up. My figures are a guess and I dont envisage that happening.

Lockstep

Where do you envisage the SP and SWP getting seats?

Pride Fighter

kickoutthejams wrote: »

Where do you envisage the SP and SWP getting seats?

PBP will win in Dun-Laoighre (Richard Boyd Barrett) and Dublin South Central(Joan Collins). SP will win in Dublin west(Joe Higgins) and Dublin North(Clare Daly).

Dob74

SP will get 3 seats, Cork North Central(Mick Barry), Clare Daly and Joe Higgins. If the election was held before christmas.

Will this draw FF and the Greens closer together?
Or will the government fall before christmas.

NewDubliner

Noticed this in the IT article:

In Dublin Labour is in first place with 25 per cent, one point ahead of Fine Gael on 24 per cent with Fianna Fail trailing back in fourth place in the capital on 11 per cent, a point behind Sinn Fein.

It looks like the decentralisation chickens have come home to roost.

ateam

Pride Fighter wrote: »

FF 17%
FG 34%
Labour 24%
SF 10%

Government satisfaction

11% Satisfied
4% dont know
85% Dissatisfied

In tomorrows Irish times and was just on the 9 o clock news.

Wow.

With these figures I would guess:

FF 60 -18
FG 62 +11
Lab 33 +12
Green 1 - 5
SF 4 unchanged
Ind 6


FG/Labour coalition, with a clear majority.

FF will lose Dublin seats, but retain most of their rural seats.

A Green wipeout, Ryan or Gormley might hold on. If Harney runs again, she'll lose as well.

Pride Fighter

NewDubliner wrote: »

Noticed this in the IT article:In Dublin Labour is in first place with 25 per cent, one point ahead of Fine Gael on 24 per cent with Fianna Fail trailing back in fourth place in the capital on 11 per cent, a point behind Sinn Fein.



It looks like the decentralisation chickens have come home to roost.

Labour are strong in Dublin, Leinster except one or 2 constituencies and Munster. Their perennial weakness is west of the shannon and the border counties. If they were to right that weakness they would no longer be half a party and could drive real change on the island.

994

The Economist wrote: »

Good estimates. One thing though: SF on 10% only getting 7 seats? Labour got 10.1% in 2007 and took home 20.

But with FG holding 65 seats, SF would be irrelevant tbh.

Particularly as Labour's support is evenly spread, while Sinn Fein's is concentrated in certain areas, giving them more seats per vote.

Pride Fighter

ateam wrote: »

With these figures I would guess:

FF 60 -18
FG 62 +11
Lab 33 +12
Green 1 - 5
SF 4 unchanged
Ind 6


FG/Labour coalition, with a clear majority.

FF will lose Dublin seats, but retain most of their rural seats because of transfers.

Do you really think with FF getting one sixth of the vote they will win 40% of the seats? That is some strange arithmetic there.

Dr. Baltar

Perhaps for the first time we might see a Left-Wing Alliance of Labour/SP/PBP and Ind/SF?

Would be very interesting for Irish politics!

ateam

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Do you really think with FF getting one sixth of the vote they will win 40% of the seats? That is some strange arithmetic there.

We have the PR system, it's not first past the post like in the UK, so sometimes the percentages are misleading. Not know that?

In rural constituencies, Labour and other left wing parties haven't got a chance, FF will still come back with at least 60 seats. A drop of 18 seats would be huge for FF.

Pride Fighter

ateam wrote: »

We have the PR system, it's not first past the post like in the UK, so sometimes the percentages are misleading. Not know that?

In rural constituencies, Labour and other left wing parties haven't got a chance, FF will still come back with at least 60 seats. A drop of 18 seats would be huge for FF.

I know all about PR-STV, there is no way someone can vote manage one sixth of the vote and get nearly half the seats. FF wont break 50 seats and if they do it wont be by much.

irish_bob

a poor result for fine gael and proof if anymore was needed that kenny should step down

ateam

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I know all about PR-STV, there is no way someone can vote manage one sixth of the vote and get nearly half the seats. FF wont break 50 seats and if they do it wont be by much.

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

They will lose seats in urban areas and where they have three seats in a 5 seat constituency. I can't see any senior or junior minister losing their seat for example.

Pride Fighter

They will lose in Laois-Offaly and several seats in the Cork area. FF will run 3 candidates when they should run 2 and 2 when they should run 1. FF will mess up and lose a bucket of seats and give others the opportunity to sneak in.

Dr. Baltar

ateam wrote: »

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

They will lose seats in urban areas and where they have three seats in a 5 seat constituency. I can't see any senior or junior minister losing their seat for example.

I can guarantee Minister Cullen losing a seat in the Waterford Constituency.
We've become very pro Left-Wing in the last year.

Stephen

Best news I've heard in ages.

jmcc

Pride Fighter wrote: »

FF 17%
FG 34%
Labour 24%
SF 10%

Very, very serious for FF in general and Cowen in particular. With the way that PR voting works, the damage that this will do to FF is far more profound than a simple shift in the twenty percent region. A lot of FF TDs rely heavily on transfers for election. A GE with this kind of breakdown of voter intentions could see FF losing a high percentage of its seats. The short-term outlook for FF, if it takes these figures to heart could see the beginning of a move against Cowen as backbenchers in Tweedle [1] seats get very nervous. But that's purely speculation.

Regards...jmcc
[1] Tweedledee and Tweedledum: One high profile FF candidate brings another somewhat less exceptional FF candidate in on transfers. Eg: Bertie Ahern and Cyprian Brady.

is_that_so

irish_bob wrote: »

a poor result for fine gael and proof if anymore was needed that kenny should step down

Hardly a poor result if they become the government, which on these numbers they most certainly will. 1 more than the combined opposition is a good result. Giving FF an absolute beating is not the name of the game even though there would be some satisfaction in it. Of the numbers here I think FF in the high thirties-low forties is not unrealistic. FF will lose a lot of seats in the cities and especially in Dublin. The Greens may keep one, probably in the shape of Eamonn Ryan. All of the rest would probably be gone.

As for the PBP and the SP, of the two the SP stand a better chance - in Claire Daly who has been close in the past. Council seats do not always translate in to a Dail seat, as SF have found. I'd also expect an increase in Independents.
A grand left alliance is just not a runner at all. Labour/FG with well over 50% will form the government. Anything else is pie in the sky and would lead to a new government being formed almost immediately.

jank

Christ, those number are terrrible for FF, the biggest winners here are Labour.
Id say those FF backbenchers are getting itchy feet. They are looking to lose at least 30 (maybe even 40!)seats here. That is a lot of TD's left on the heap!

jmcc

The core FF vote was supposed to have been around the 24-25% mark. This drop to 17% may be quite terrifying for FF and it could signal a lot of the soft FF vote drifting. If FF was a well run party, I wouldn't expect Cowen to see out the month but this is FF that we are talking about so it might just reinforce a siege mentality.

Regards...jmcc

is_that_so

jank wrote: »

Christ, those number are terrrible for FF, the biggest winners here are Labour.
Id say those FF backbenchers are getting itchy feet. They are looking to lose at least 30 (maybe even 40!)seats here. That is a lot of TD's left on the heap!

They might but they might also get that rush of patriotism to do the right thing and go down with the sinking ship and disappoint those heading for Paddy Power to bet on an election date. Paradoxically it may even steel the Greens against all the outside criticism and pressure. Falling on their sword over NAMA is unlikely to help them but pulling out over a FF refusal to change the programme for government would, at the very least, satisfy the party members.

Lockstep

Sir Baralot wrote: »

Perhaps for the first time we might see a Left-Wing Alliance of Labour/SP/PBP and Ind/SF?

Would be very interesting for Irish politics!

I can't see Labour and the SP ever going in together.

Too much bad blood over the Militant Tendecny story and SP would lose it's hardcore support for going in with "capitalist" Labour.

jank

Maybe, anyway whatever happens I think we can all agree that the FF party as we know is gone forever. There is simply no easy way out of this for FF.

Edit: The party wont be gone but will be a very differnt one to the one we know now.


I dont think Nama will get passed nor will the next budget but even if they do manage some how to remain in government come 2010 then the poll numbers will be even worse for them considering the nasty measures the budget will require. The choice is death by a thousand cuts or death by hanging. One will happen but which one?

Dob74

ateam wrote: »

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

They will lose seats in urban areas and where they have three seats in a 5 seat constituency. I can't see any senior or junior minister losing their seat for example.

FF will lose 3 or 4 seats in Cork. I also would think a minister and a few juniors will lose out.

jmcc

Dob74 wrote: »

FF will lose 3 or 4 seats in Cork. I also would think a minister and a few juniors will lose out.

FF is probably facing an FG 2002 scale demolition. Quite a few ministers may well lose their seats.

Regards...jmcc

Sand

Maybe, anyway whatever happens I think we can all agree that the FF party as we know is gone forever.

I might be being cynical - seeing Fianna Fail destroyed would be good for Irish politics - but I doubt it. Theres a certain element (and we are seeing a lot of them post in support of NAMA recently) in the Irish vote that would vote for a chimpanzee dressed up in a suit with a Fianna Fail badge on it. Because of the chimps great work in the local community.

These numbers are so decisive for Fianna Fail that they can no longer claim to have a mandate. You expect to see a polls diverge from reality, but this result simply reinforces that Fianna Fail are about as popular as cancer.

Bannana

Sand wrote: »

I might be being cynical - seeing Fianna Fail destroyed would be good for Irish politics - but I doubt it. Theres a certain element (and we are seeing a lot of them post in support of NAMA recently) in the Irish vote that would vote for a chimpanzee dressed up in a suit with a Fianna Fail badge on it. Because of the chimps great work in the local community.

These numbers are so decisive for Fianna Fail that they can no longer claim to have a mandate. You expect to see a polls diverge from reality, but this result simply reinforces that Fianna Fail are about as popular as cancer.

You have to take into account that a lot of Fianna Fail voters don't actually declare they are FF voters. This does tend to distort the reality of the polls. However, these polls are indeed quite damning for a political party that was at the foundation of all politics in Ireland.

I strongly agree when you say FF don't have a mandate. There is a certain air of inevitably about the faith of this government, and little effort on there behalf is being made to change this.

jmcc

Bannana wrote: »

You have to take into account that a lot of Fianna Fail voters don't actually declare they are FF voters.

This is a bit more than that. It is well below what would be considered the traditional FF core vote (the people who vote FF no matter what).

This does tend to distort the reality of the polls. However, these polls are indeed quite damning for a political party that was at the foundation of all politics in Ireland.

FF was not at the foundation of all politics in Ireland. Though it is quite a disaster for FF.

I strongly agree when you say FF don't have a mandate. There is a certain air of inevitably about the faith of this government, and little effort on there behalf is being made to change this.

The next few weeks could be very interesting.

Regards...jmcc

Bannana

jmcc wrote: »

FF was not at the foundation of all politics in Ireland. Though it is quite a disaster for FF.

Apologies, didn't express what i truly meant. I meant a party which has been so prominent in Irish History over the last 80 years or so.

jmcc

Bannana wrote: »

Apologies, didn't express what i truly meant. I meant a party which has been so prominent in Irish History over the last 80 years or so.

No problem. It is an interesting point though as FF is so well engrained in the fabric of Irish society. If these voting patterns are carried into a general election then this would be almost a once in a century kind of political realignment for politics in Ireland.

Regards...jmcc

marco_polo

ateam wrote: »

We have the PR system, it's not first past the post like in the UK, so sometimes the percentages are misleading. Not know that?

In rural constituencies, Labour and other left wing parties haven't got a chance, FF will still come back with at least 60 seats. A drop of 18 seats would be huge for FF.

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I know all about PR-STV, there is no way someone can vote manage one sixth of the vote and get nearly half the seats. FF wont break 50 seats and if they do it wont be by much.

WHile I find you make very good points previously Pride Fighter I would be inclined to agree with ateam for the most part, certainly a little over 50 at worst. In many constituencies there are simply not enough credible alternative party candidates. Do not underestimate the power of a familiar face and the party machine in rural elections.

I am from Clare originally and even if the national percentages said 10% FF they would still probably manage come back with 2 seats. With the exception of M. Banjee in 1992, and the Independent candidate James Breen in 2002. It has always been either 3 FF and 1 FG or 2 FF and 2FG. This is not likely to change too much as FG could probably only field two credible candiates at most, and neither the Labour party nor the Greens exist to any great extent. On top of that it is also probably the only Munster county were Sinn Fein hardly register a presence at all.

Persuming the rest of the rural counties are not too dissimilar, then I think it would be still reasonably high seat count for FF I am afraid. Of course they would be absolutely decimitated in Urban areas all around the country.

Not particularly proud of the all this or anything, just saying it like it is. If this turns into a real opportunity to get some new faces on the scene then great, I am just not sure it will happen.

nesf

ateam wrote: »

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

I'd expect them to lose one in Cork North West, and one in Cork North Central.

Cork North West was traditionally FG for years until the Celtic Tiger and FF support in the city is being hit very hard from what I can see.

nesf

Pride Fighter wrote: »

This is huge news. I'll take a stab at seat numbers if an election were to happen, using these figures.

FF- 35 seats
FG- 65 seats
Labour- 42 seats
Greens- 0
SF- 7 seats
Independents + PBP + SP- 16

You're hugely underestimating likely FF seats there. Like it or not, the only parties with serious presences in rural areas are FG and FF, Labour support might rise but they don't yet have the party machines in these places to get these seats. Labour will see gains but they won't be beating FF by 7 seats any time soon. We'll see plenty of 2 FF, 1 FG constituencies going 1 FF, 2 FG but FF are almost certain to hold onto at least one seat in all these constituencies, and in some places will still hold 2 in three seaters.

jank

In Cork South Central Michael Martin would get in but his running mate might struggle. Remember in 2002 they returned 3 FF TD's.

nesf

jank wrote: »

In Cork South Central Michael Martin would get in but his running mate might struggle. Remember in 2002 they returned 3 FF TD's.

They only barely managed that though and came very close to only returning 2 from what I heard. They screwed up with the splitting of First Preferences iirc.

GSF

ateam wrote: »

Just do a random sweep of the rural constituencies (eg Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork areas). FF won't lose their seats there.

Their Sligo TDs have already gone independent.

mike65

All very interesting, but might the poll reflect that admitting a preference for FF is like saying you'd like to sleep with your sister?

Or would it wrong to draw that parrallel?

Pygmalion

mike65 wrote: »

All very interesting, but might the poll reflect that admitting a preference for FF is like saying you'd like to sleep with your sister?

Or would it wrong to draw that parrallel?

I assume it's an anonymous poll, unless you personally know the guy asking you (which wouldn't happen if it was in any way professional) no-one will know what you answered (Unless 100% say yes, in which case they'll know anyone asked voted FF)

Tenderloins1

17% is very dangerous territory for FF, especially in Dublin where they are on 11%.
In 2002 Fine Gael got 22.5% of the votes and just 31 seats.

It also shows them polling lower nationally than the local elections.

There were 43 constituencies, 12 of them in Dublin.
At the last election they won 19 of the 47 seats available in Dublin.
The Local elections in Dublin indicated a number of things. Firstly that the first preferences would be down. Secondly that transfers were down. So it ended up where FF had to have at least .9 of a quota (the exception
being DunLaoghaire where they had .73 of a quota) to have a candidate elected.
If this figure of 11% was replicated throughout Dublin, they would be down to possibly just 2 seats. More likely would be 5 or 6 seats

Of the 31 outside Dublin theres maybe 1 or 2 (Kerry North, Kildare North) where there are possibilities of having no seat. So thats maybe 30 seats.
So looking then at the other constituencies again. There may be 5 or 6 where they will win 2 seats.

So in total 17% for FF would be around 40 seats.

Sand

Sand wrote: »

Theres a certain element (and we are seeing a lot of them post in support of NAMA recently) in the Irish vote that would vote for a chimpanzee dressed up in a suit with a Fianna Fail badge on it. Because of the chimps great work in the local community.

Yes, because the people who don't vote FF are so much more intelligent? Nonsense. There's a huge number that would vote for a chimp dressed in a suit with a 'Not FF' badge on it, because of their work in the local community. I can think of a few thousand in my own county who vote for a convicted terrorist and gun runner for those two very reasons...

RealityCheck

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, because the people who don't vote FF are so much more intelligent? Nonsense. There's a huge number that would vote for a chimp dressed in a suit with a 'Not FF' badge on it, because they wrecked the country. I can think of a few thousand in my own county who vote for a convicted terrorist and gun runner for those two very reasons...

Fixed that for you .

Its funny how that crowd used to vote FF, they wer'nt so thick then, eh...

irish_bob

is_that_so wrote: »

Hardly a poor result if they become the government, which on these numbers they most certainly will. 1 more than the combined opposition is a good result. Giving FF an absolute beating is not the name of the game even though there would be some satisfaction in it. Of the numbers here I think FF in the high thirties-low forties is not unrealistic. FF will lose a lot of seats in the cities and especially in Dublin. The Greens may keep one, probably in the shape of Eamonn Ryan. All of the rest would probably be gone.

As for the PBP and the SP, of the two the SP stand a better chance - in Claire Daly who has been close in the past. Council seats do not always translate in to a Dail seat, as SF have found. I'd also expect an increase in Independents.
A grand left alliance is just not a runner at all. Labour/FG with well over 50% will form the government. Anything else is pie in the sky and would lead to a new government being formed almost immediately.

unless fine gael can form a goverment without labour , they wont be able to achieve a damm thing for the country , on theese figures they need labour , kenny is what holds a certain number of swing voters from voting FG