The Official Free Money Rugby Gambling Thread!

wixfjord

Right following on from the thread yesterday, please keep all rugby bets and betting advice in this thread!

Anyway down to business, the Magners League starts this weekend, along with the Guinness Premership.

A lot firms havent got prices up yet so I will update later in the week. One I have been looking at though is Harlequins to beat Wasps. This is played at the neutral Twickenham, so home advantage makes little difference. With all the goings on at Quins this Summer, they may be looking to just get back to rugby and keep going from a positive season last year. The have lost very little and only had Monye on the Lions. Wasps on the other hand have lost 3 to France, and and also had Vickery and Shaw in S.A. Of course I will wait until the teams are named, but anything above 6/4 for Quins willprobably be taken.

Anyone have any season bets? Stade at 8/1 to win the Heineken Cup is interesting me.

Gelio

What about Leinster to do the two in a row. I doubt it will happen but it would make each match a little better if there is money on it

CoDy1

South Africa -12.5 11/4 on Betfair.

Aussies came good towards the end of the last game(to within 7 points) and are at home again. 4 tries for SA to Aussie's 3. Definatly good value @ 11/4!

wixfjord

wixfjord wrote: »

Right following on from the thread yesterday, please keep all rugby bets and betting advice in this thread!

Anyway down to business, the Magners League starts this weekend, along with the Guinness Premership.

A lot firms havent got prices up yet so I will update later in the week. One I have been looking at though is Harlequins to beat Wasps. This is played at the neutral Twickenham, so home advantage makes little difference. With all the goings on at Quins this Summer, they may be looking to just get back to rugby and keep going from a positive season last year. The have lost very little and only had Monye on the Lions. Wasps on the other hand have lost 3 to France, and and also had Vickery and Shaw in S.A. Of course I will wait until the teams are named, but anything above 6/4 for Quins willprobably be taken.

Anyone have any season bets? Stade at 8/1 to win the Heineken Cup is interesting me.

Actually looking at the Stade team and their recent history,there is absolutely nothing to indicate they will win the cup.
I would steer well clear of them.

I dont like the look of any of the Magners matches this weekend.Leinster will probably lose to Scarlets though.

GiftofGab

This should be a sticky

Gelio

GiftofGab wrote: »

This should be a sticky

If its popular enough

wixfjord

No I wouldnt like the look of any magners league games, will wait until teams are out though, Ospreys without any Lions and at a hopefully windy pissy sportsground might be worth opposing on the handicap.

irishbucsfan

Leinster to finish top of the Magners League, 4-1 would be a decent bet.

Dragons to finish last at 10/3 would be a great bet. Not only because it's a decent bet, but also because it gives a good reason to support Connacht! Up the lads!

PhatPiggins

ajeffares wrote: »

What about Leinster to do the two in a row. I doubt it will happen but it would make each match a little better if there is money on it

Rule one: bet with head not with heart.

It does make it more interesting though

PhatPiggins

CoDy1 wrote: »

South Africa -12.5 11/4 on Betfair.

Aussies came good towards the end of the last game(to within 7 points) and are at home again. 4 tries for SA to Aussie's 3. Definatly good value @ 11/4!

I disagree , I think the Aussies could have won that game if Giteau had kicked better in the first half and Burgess wasn't playing. Heres the Aussie team:

Australia: 15 James O'Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 George Smith (capt), 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 James Horwill, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Pek Cowan, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Wycliff Palu, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Quade Cooper, 22 Peter Hynes.

Having Barnes back at 12 is a huge plus in terms of D and it gives Giteau the freedom to roam around a bit. Genia will provide fast go forward ball as opposed to Burgess head height and above passing and thats a seriously tasty backrow.

Australia are never more dangerous then when written off ,coupled with what they did to the SA scrum last week and that regular Bok basher Wayne Barnes is reffing I'll be talikng Oz +6 and a smaller bet on them at 2/1 on the outrights.

Gelio

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Rule one: bet with head not with heart.

It does make it more interesting though

I was only talking a fiver!:D

Judgement Day

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I disagree , I think the Aussies could have won that game if Giteau had kicked better in the first half and Burgess wasn't playing. Heres the Aussie team:

Australia: 15 James O'Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 George Smith (capt), 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 James Horwill, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Pek Cowan, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Wycliff Palu, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Quade Cooper, 22 Peter Hynes.

Having Barnes back at 12 is a huge plus in terms of D and it gives Giteau the freedom to roam around a bit. Genia will provide fast go forward ball as opposed to Burgess head height and above passing and thats a seriously tasty backrow.

Australia are never more dangerous then when written off ,coupled with what they did to the SA scrum last week and that regular Bok basher Wayne Barnes is reffing I'll be talikng Oz +6 and a smaller bet on them at 2/1 on the outrights.

I've just put a small bet on Australia (-5.0) @ 4/1, more in hope than expectation, but they came close enough last week - so fingers crossed.

Jonny Wilkinson continues his comeback at Toulon but was subbed after 60 minutes tonight in their (26-21) win over Clermont Auvergne - he missed three penalties but still had a good game but not quite good enough for my (-6) bet on Toulon! He's still the man!!

2040

This is an interesting one: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/magners-league?ev_oc_grp_ids=85991 - i'd go James Hook. I'm a sucker for these bets.

I also notice Paddy Power have stopped their "To score a try in 80 minutes" bets. They might have been a bit too profitable for people.

GiftofGab

2040 wrote: »

This is an interesting one: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/magners-league?ev_oc_grp_ids=85991 - i'd go James Hook. I'm a sucker for these bets.

I also notice Paddy Power have stopped their "To score a try in 80 minutes" bets. They might have been a bit too profitable for people.

How is ROG down so far in the pecking order??? 20/1 for top points scorer....seams liek a good bet to me.

Who was top points scorer last year?

wixfjord

I presume its because he will be out until the third round of games, and for the 6N. Although afaik Hook is out for the first three aswell (or are the Welsh provinces playing their Lions?) I dont like these markets in te Magners anyway, too many possibilites. eg if Munster get into the last 4 of the Hcup you would presume O Gara wouldnt play much in the latter stages of the ML (excluding playoffs)

Im also looking at Australia.

duckysauce

GiftofGab wrote: »

How is ROG down so far in the pecking order??? 20/1 for top points scorer....seams liek a good bet to me.

Who was top points scorer last year?

doesnt play a big amount of magners l games

PhatPiggins

I dont really like betting on teams on the first day as I've no idea of their form. The only gamble I'll be having tonight is a small bet on Leicester @ 8/13

Judgement Day

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I dont really like betting on teams on the first day as I've no idea of their form. The only gamble I'll be having tonight is a small bet on Leicester @ 8/13

Too true, but there's no fool like and old fool and a greedy one at that. Before heading down to the pub to watch the match I considered betting on Munster to win by more than 6, the same on Glasgow and a couple of Euros on a draw at 20/1. What did I do - stuck the lot on Munster instead! Will I ever learn? Maybe my mad fling on the Wallabies to beat the 'so-called' World Champions tomorrow will pay off?

Crash

If its any consolation, I put that same mad bet on. Fingers crossed.

PhatPiggins

Had a punt on the Aussies +6 this morning

handsomecake

have aussies to win.just a tenner mind

wixfjord

One point on Australia +6.

Judgement Day

What a game - a real spectacle and Paddy Power loses for once - Yippee!!! I will be on a high all week . The 'mighty' Boks battered in their own style! :D

wixfjord

Good start for the Boards Free Money Thread!
Gonna stake my winnings on Quins.
Preview of the game hereWith Wasps having no home advantage, such a new backline and the imo over the hill Betsen captaining, hopefully the Quins can pull together and put Bloodgate behind them. Theyve only lost Ross afaik fom the starting 15 from last year. Monye at fb is a bit of a worry tho.
Anyway 1 point on Quins @ 6/5 with skybet.

PhatPiggins

wixfjord wrote: »

Good start for the Boards Free Money Thread!
Gonna stake my winnings on Quins.
Preview of the game hereWith Wasps having no home advantage, such a new backline and the imo over the hill Betsen captaining, hopefully the Quins can pull together and put Bloodgate behind them. Theyve only lost Ross afaik fom the starting 15 from last year. Monye at fb is a bit of a worry tho.
Anyway 1 point on Quins @ 6/5 with skybet.

Going to give all GP a miss untill we get an idication of form. This one in particular is a no no for me. Both teams were average in preseason, Quins have no coach and will either have a "fortress" mentality after the bloodgate ****e or just crumble. Too many unknowns.

wixfjord

Yeah I see what you mean for eg Leicester last night were short price favourites and were turned over, I just feel that Wasps havent added much since last year, have a lot of new players and with Shaw Vickery etc out and an almost full Quins side..
Looked at Irish aswell but price is short.

Judgement Day

Filled with the joy of putting one over on Paddy Power I just had another small punt on Leinster to win tonight:

Leinster (-7.0) @ 15/8 .

To me Leinster look, on paper, the better side but it is away from home and they have a poor record of starts in the ML. God loves a trier!


20.51 Apres match: Lucky it was only a small bet. Ooops! and just when I thought I was on to a winning streak.

Judgement Day

Has this thread gone to sleep? Any tips for this weekend? Munster? Leinster? The All Blacks to beat the Boks on Saturday is the only safe (?) bet after last weekend's performances by the Irish provinces. I fancy them at 7/4 to win by more than 10 points - a big ask but anything less than 10 points returns very little. Although for the more timid the All Blacks to win by more than 4 points returns 10/11 on, and for you losers who believe that the Boks are the 'World' champions they are 11/8 favourites to win with Paddy Power.

irishbucsfan

Can't bet against the Boks this weekend. They're far too good.

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

Has this thread gone to sleep? Any tips for this weekend? Munster? Leinster? The All Blacks to beat the Boks on Saturday is the only safe (?) bet after last weekend's performances by the Irish provinces. I fancy them at 7/4 to win by more than 10 points - a big ask but anything less than 10 points returns very little. Although for the more timid the All Blacks to win by more than 4 points returns 10/11 on, and for you losers who believe that the Boks are the 'World' champions they are 11/8 favourites to win with Paddy Power.

Not a chance,are you insane.Dont touch that one.

For some reason Leinster havent named their team,I will predict when its named.

I dont like the look of the Munser match but If I was to put my life on it I would say Blues will win but by no more than 5,Munster have no good backline players bar Mafi,Howlett and possibly Jones on the pitch and the Blues have a nice bench.

Crash

I can see Munster winning that purely down to a decent pack performance - bit confused though - albacks 10/11 on by 4 points, or the boks at 11/8 - to me the odds on the blacks are ridiculuous!

PhatPiggins

OK so the only game we properly discussed last week, OZ Vs SA, we got right. Its still too early in the GP and ML seasons to bet with any confidence. So it'll be the 3N's again for my main bet.

NZ realistically need to win both games comfortably and score 4 tries in both and deny SA any bonus points tomorrow. The automatic thought is to assume they'll throw it around against SA. I think Henry is too cute for this and will try and win the game first. I think it'll be a tight first half with NZ trying to open it up a bit in the second, they usually finish stronger then they start anyway.

I know SA are probably wrecked having played a lot over the past two months but I really dont like this NZ team. I think they lack physicality up front and the Donald/Nonu combo could be a disaster.

My bets for this game are SA +5 3pts , SA outright 2/1 1pt, and a saver on SA/NZ halftime/fulltime 7/1 1pt.

irishbucsfan

PhatPiggins wrote: »

My bets for this game are SA +5 3pts , SA outright 2/1 1pt, and a saver on SA/NZ halftime/fulltime 7/1 1pt.

What he said.

Judgement Day

Can't make up my mind on NZ versus the Boks yet - I'll wait to see how rich I'm feeling after tonight's Munster performance. A few Euros on more than 18.5 points being scored in the first half at 5/6 on, and a bit more on Munster winning by more than 8 points at 11/10. Fingers crossed.

irishbucsfan

Judgement Day wrote: »

Can't make up my mind on NZ versus the Boks yet - I'll wait to see how rich I'm feeling after tonight's Munster performance. A few Euros on more than 18.5 points being scored in the first half at 5/6 on, and a bit more on Munster winning by more than 8 points at 11/10. Fingers crossed.

Against that Cardiff team its a big ask.

PhatPiggins

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Against that Cardiff team its a big ask.

Especially with Manning at 10.

Judgement Day

But not too big an ask (!) and Manning didn't do too badly at all. Yippee Munster are back! Crap game, crap Ref. but great tries from Marcus Horan and Denis Leamy - the boys are back winning again and that's all that matters. Paddy Power loses again too!! Now to blow it all on NZ to beat Boks by more than 4 at 10/11 on.

The weather for this is rain,the Boks have named Steyn at 10,which would indicate they intent to kick the corners.The defo have a better pack than SA.

Personally I still dont like the look of this match and wouldnt touch it ,everything points to a SA victory but I just have a hunch taking into account its in NZ,SA were just beaten and you never beat the AB's twice,I predict NZ and by 10 points.

Judgement Day

Brenna Early Ambassador wrote: »

The weather for this is rain,the Boks have named Steyn at 10,which would indicate they intent to kick the corners.The defo have a better pack than SA.

Personally I still dont like the look of this match and wouldnt touch it ,everything points to a SA victory but I just have a hunch taking into account its in NZ,SA were just beaten and you never beat the AB's twice,I predict NZ and by 10 points.

Yep, I thought long and hard and prudence won out and I settled for a satisfying bet on there to be more than 18.5 (!) points scored in the first half. An exciting match with some great kicking but too many handling errors by the All Blacks gave the game to the Boks. As usual Dan Carter was head and shoulders above his team mates.

PhatPiggins

irishbucsfan wrote: »

What he said.

Worked out well for us. A good payday could have been great if Carter had passed the last ball instead of kicking it.

He still had a good game though. Henry has to go, keeps picking his favourites and all pregame planning is gone out the window.

irishbucsfan

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Worked out well for us. A good payday could have been great if Carter had passed the last ball instead of kicking it.

He still had a good game though. Henry has to go, keeps picking his favourites and all pregame planning is gone out the window.

I was at the zoo and thus missed the game. Responsibilities and all...

However, as repentence, I intend to stay up until 4am and watch the Leinster match in its entirety (7 hour time difference and all).

Blut

Bump..

Tonights Ospreys v Leinster game: Ospreys win by 1-10pts @ 2/1, Leinster win by 1-10pts @13/5. Ten euro bet on each and overall winnings will either be 10e or 16e, very unlikely either team will win by more than 10 points I'd say.

irishbucsfan

My best bet would be Ulster to score first, lead at half time and win by 1-10 points (9.72 with Ladbrokes) against Edinburgh.

wixfjord

Been away for a while so havent done anything on this thread.

Anyway theres lots of rugby on this weekend, but only one bet that stands out for me really, Cardiff Blues -8 against Connacht. Cardiff welcome back Jamie Roberts and have a fairly strong team out. Connacht give a debut to an oh Ive never heard of and Wilkinson is out so I think -8 is very fair. Also Sweeney is O/H so hopefully he can get the Blues backline moving. Would have looked at NZ but theyre very short @ 8/15, and dont think Id touch any of other the ML games with a bargepole.

wixfjord

Actually ive changed my mind already! If Munster are priced up as near 10/11 I might have to look at that.

PhatPiggins

Blut wrote: »

Bump..

Tonights Ospreys v Leinster game: Ospreys win by 1-10pts @ 2/1, Leinster win by 1-10pts @13/5. Ten euro bet on each and overall winnings will either be 10e or 16e, very unlikely either team will win by more than 10 points I'd say.

I like that bet too, cant see either team running away with it.

For anyone who doesn't know: www.oddschecker.com is a good site for price comparison

irishbucsfan

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I like that bet too, cant see either team running away with it.

For anyone who doesn't know: www.oddschecker.com is a good site for price comparison

I can. Ospreys heads are down already. If Leinster can get up by 10 or 13 points then I can see the Ospreys folding and making mistakes. They're a troubled team these days.

PhatPiggins

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I can. Ospreys heads are down already. If Leinster can get up by 10 or 13 points then I can see the Ospreys folding and making mistakes. They're a troubled team these days.

You have a point but Leinster haven't exactly set the world on fire in the opening two fixtures, cant see them racking up a big score with that backline.

GiftofGab

Blut wrote: »

Bump..

Tonights Ospreys v Leinster game: Ospreys win by 1-10pts @ 2/1, Leinster win by 1-10pts @13/5. Ten euro bet on each and overall winnings will either be 10e or 16e, very unlikely either team will win by more than 10 points I'd say.

I like that. Put a 10er on each. Ospreys welcome back Lee Byrne and Tommy Bowe. Plus they are playing at home. Could be a tight game.

If I was to pick one winner, I would go for Ospreys by about 6 points.

PhatPiggins

Well done winners, this thread is starting to pay out.

Judgement Day

Small win on more than 17.5 points being scored in 1st half of Ulster v Edinburgh match, otherwise another poor night compounded by getting up too late this morning to have a punt on the All Blacks v Aussies match - a real clash of titans. Highlights of this last match will be on http://rugbydump.blogspot.com which I can highly recommend to everybody.