The 'No the Nama' Street Protest on 12th Sept

eamonnm79

Long Onion wrote: »

Hi Eamonnm79,

I did touch on it further back. This is one aspect that does carry a moral dilemma, for what it's worth, I do believe that the initial investment by bond and shareholders carried a risk and that in normal circumstances they should not be bailed out for backing the wrong horse. But I don't believe that forcing them to take a loss should be the defining factor in the matter.

NAMA will have a side-effect of enriching them and morally this may be incorrect but I don't think this is enough of a reason to wade in and nationalise the banks thus exposing the tax payer to higher potential losses. Look at the continued re-capitaisation of Anglo, the loss making deposit interest rates it's paying, the mounting loan impairements.

I think we have to choose between the lesser of two evils and in my opinion, this is NAMA. Didn't realise some would be so shirty

With Nama after nationalising you save the money you have to pay out to bond and shareholders and you have no risk in over/underpricing.
This is a very significant saving.

leonardjos

On second thoughts, we'd better call the protest march off. Brendan O'Connor advises to bend over and accept our medicine. :rolleyes:

We could get angry over this mess . . . or get real
Nama is unjust but necessary, and we must now accept the things we cannot change and face the new reality, writes Brendan O'Connor
...
On the issue of what price the State will pay for the debts, let's be real, too. Whatever you or I think, the Government will give the banks whatever they have to give the banks to ensure they don't go under. As to the subtleties of how much of this will be given as payment for loans and how much of it will be given as refinancing, I'm sure they'll work that out, too. :eek:
...
Or you could just accept the reality that they are actually never going to do anything about public sector pay or numbers, that they would genuinely rather see the country beggared than to do it. You could just accept that asking our politicians to cut quangoes full of former or current civil servants, or asking them to fire any of their brethren in government departments, would be like asking them to cut off their hands. It is against their very nature. And to ask them to do it merely to save a few faceless workers in the private sector? Never. As if they would dream of getting rid of living, breathing flesh and blood public sector workers, people like themselves, people who got their jobs because of being like themselves, in order to save some mere numbers out in the private sector.

You could knock yourself out going mad about all this stuff. Or you could have the wisdom to accept the things you cannot change. I don't see Brian Cowen giving himself blood pressure over any of this, so why should we? And as unreal as it might all seem, this, folks, is the new reality.

Footnote: For anyone who doesn't remember, this is the guy who said The smart, ballsy guys are buying up property right now in July 2007.

oceanclub

leonardjos wrote: »

Footnote: For anyone who doesn't remember, this is the guy who said The smart, ballsy guys are buying up property right now in July 2007.

When this genius is for something, you know it's bound to be bad.

Of course, the smart ballsy guy was whining a whole back about how negative equity was everyone's fault except, well, puffed-up journos shilling for the property industry:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/hurley-and-his-banker-cronies-have-ruined-this-country-fire-him-now-1773209.html

P.

gurramok

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'm opposed to NAMA, but I tend not to go on these marches as (it seems to me) they get bandwagoned by sectional interests. So I expect there'll be banners there from people protesting hospital closures / Welfare Cuts / Child Benefit Cuts / Thomas Cook supporters / Civil Service AntiPension Levy groups / Joe Higgins waffling on about Bin Taxes etc.

So whilst I'm opposed to NAMA, I couldn't in good conscience associate with some of these groups.

DeVore wrote:

I will only give you 1000 to 1 that SWP or whatever they are calling themselves lately are behind this

No, they are not behind it. You will be surprised that its mostly middle-class types.

Its ironic that scaremongering of a SWP type organised protest scares people away from their right to protest at something they disagree with. Sad for democracy.

oceanclub

gurramok wrote: »

No, they are not behind it. You will be surprised that its mostly middle-class types.

Its ironic that scaremongering of a SWP type organised protest scares people away from their right to protest at something they disagree with. Sad for democracy.

The SWP are definitely not behind it. I should know because I was the admins of one of the anti-NAMA facebook groups and had a SWPers contacting me asking me to add a link to their protest to the No to NAMA one.

As for the idea that you shouldn't protest against something because someone, somewhere, that you don't like may agree with you on it, well, realistically you never vote or protest ever again. And if you don't protest against it, I hope that you're not someone whinging about tax increases down the line.

P.

thebman

It seems politics is relevant to the middle classes now that we are up sh** creek and the government has made it clear they want to lean on the middle class again to make up the difference for government policy mistakes.

Not surprising we are angry, expect the government to try to censor the Internet next to stop this easy organising of protests! That will solve the problem :-/

Count Dooku

thebman wrote: »

It seems politics is relevant to the middle classes now that we are up sh** creek and the government has made it clear they want to lean on the middle class again to make up the difference for government policy mistakes.

Not surprising we are angry, expect the government to try to censor the Internet next to stop this easy organising of protests! That will solve the problem :-/

From independent
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/editorial/spending-cuts-must-be-priority-1867239.html

The new taxes that the commission proposes represent a full frontal assault on the middle classes -- the least organised and least militant sector in society.

eamonnm79

The likes of Brendan O Conner have done an excellent job of demonising the left. Infact he and his ilk have succeded in making left, social, union etc. dirty words in the ears of many broadsheet readers.

Now that his free market, every man for himself, ideals have gone down the pan he would rather be completely defeatest than to actually think, hey maybe I was wrong about those leftie lads maybe they were just trying to look out for middle/lower classes.

As for not joining a protest because you dont like some of the others who agree with you on this issue. That makes no sense. Divide and concour.

oceanclub

eamonnm79 wrote: »

The likes of Brendan O Conner have done an excellent job of demonising the left. Infact he and his ilk have succeded in making left, social, union etc. dirty words in the ears of many broadsheet readers.

Now that his free market, every man for himself, ideals have gone down the pan...

Sorry, but I had to interrupt and say it would be a step-up for O'Connor to have any ideals.

P.

Salvelinus

eamonnm79 wrote: »

The likes of Brendan O Conner have done an excellent job of demonising the left. Infact he and his ilk have succeded in making left, social, union etc. dirty words in the ears of many broadsheet readers.

Now that his free market, every man for himself, ideals have gone down the pan he would rather be completely defeatest than to actually think, hey maybe I was wrong about those leftie lads maybe they were just trying to look out for middle/lower classes.

As for not joining a protest because you dont like some of the others who agree with you on this issue. That makes no sense. Divide and concour.

You're a star, Smarty McBallsy Brendan O'Connor? As someone said before "somewhere out there, there's a monkey grinding an organ with more dignity than Brendan O'Connor"

LostinBlanch

oceanclub wrote: »

Sorry, but I had to interrupt and say it would be a step-up for O'Connor to have any ideals.

P.

I read that as ideas and still agreed with it.

leonardjos

Gambling all for a prize not worth winning

by FINTAN O’TOOLE in the Irish Times today

The fundamental reform in attitudes, values and priorities that is crucial to our survival will be impossible. All we’ll have is an economic version of Sophie’s Choice: heads, we lose billions of public money; tails we inflate another bubble.

This is why Nama has to be stopped, and why public opinion has to make itself felt. If Nama goes ahead without the largest public demonstrations ever seen in the State, we deserve what we get. Our kids deserve better.

A clear rallying to action!

Start getting your placards ready for the protest now!

eamonnm79

Have any of the Unions or Sinn Fein or labour been in touch with regard to the march?

getcover

leonardjos wrote: »

Footnote: For anyone who doesn't remember, this is the guy who said The smart, ballsy guys are buying up property right now in July 2007.

The second paragragh of that "article" reads:

"Tell you what, I think I know what I'd be doing if I had money, and if I wasn't already massively over-exposed to the property market by virtue of owning a reasonable home. I'd be buying property. In fact, I might do it anyway. You don't even need money to buy property these days. Imagine if you walked into the bank and said, "Listen, guys. I want to gamble a million on the stock market. I have 100 grand myself, will you guys lend me 900 grand at really low rates and I'll pay you back over 40 years? In fact I won't even pay off the principal, I'll just pay off the interest." They'd laugh you out of it. But substitute gambling on the property market for gambling on the stock market and they'll fall over themselves to give it to you."

That pretty much sums up what the banks did, aided and abetted by FF/PD, and yet some people still think these are the very same people to get us out of the mess they created...

Sand

Have any of the Unions or Sinn Fein or labour been in touch with regard to the march?

I think the organisers have been very clear that they want a very simple and direct focus on opposition to NAMA - they dont want it hijacked for the purposes of the trade unions, Sinn Fein or the Labour parties political aims and needs. Which is very understandable in my book, as its far easier to unify around opposition to NAMA than the Sinn Fein manifesto.

They could do with contacting Fintan O'Toole though - a lot of the comments on the article were calling for him to lead a protest march...it might be easier for him to endorse the one organised for Sept 12th and make sure people are aware of it.

meathstevie

egan007 wrote: »

Ha, ha ha, ha ha ha ha ha

Ha

Ha

ha...

good one....

Because we all know that the state can run things better than private companies.

I would dare to say so yes. State organisations that aren't directly governed by some numbskull politician tend to be ran quite well. I haven't heard about AGS or the Defence Forces or courts service for example being in the load of ****e the banks and developers got themselves into....

Sand

Have you heard of the Financial Regulator? No?

dresden8

Sand wrote: »

Have you heard of the Financial Regulator? No?

There is a lot wrong with the public service, but he was a special fncker who seemed to be in thrall to everybody except the public.

You can't taint 300,000 people with that fnckers contagion.

The phrase "political appointee" springs to mind.

leonardjos

The 'No to NAMA' campaign has been ratched up today with 46 economists signing a letter in the Irish Times calling on the government to reconsider its NAMA plans

Nama set to shift wealth to lenders and developers

The key difficulty facing the Government is that to pay existing market prices would leave the banks sitting on losses large enough as to effectively bankrupt them. This would then require the State to invest in the banks to such an extent as to effectively nationalise them.

Consequently, it is clear that the Government is determined to pay a price for land and speculative developments greatly in excess of the market clearing price.

Thus, by overpaying, the State will wind up transferring to private individuals a sum close to the entire tax take across all tax heads.

In a period of fiscal collapse this is surely not a decision that should be taken lightly, if at all.

We therefore urge the Government to reconsider its approach to payment for loans to be taken into Nama, to pay no more than current market value – which can be ascertained even in these times – and to require the investors in the banks to bear some of the cost of restructuring the system. Moreover, we also argue that the Government should not burden the State with more debt than is absolutely required.

To do otherwise would be economic folly.

Maxster

I've no political bias. I want to remain living in Ireland. I have two small boys I want to live in Ireland. I don't see why because I bought a nice car and house I should be taxed to the limit for 30 years and my sons after me. My father went through that.

Listening to radio 1 this evening, we're all missing the objective, getting the economy going again is whats NAMA was supposed to be about. Getting money circulating to business and shops.

Some where along the line that translated into artifically supporting property prices at the expense of the tax payer. The debt difference(boom property price less todays property price) has to be paid to the international investors who loaned to Irish banks (really the Irish people including developers) if Ireland is to remain a viable economically. We can't get away from that. Thats one side of the equation. The other side can be written anyway we like.

NAMA does not appear to recognise the responsibility of banks and developers to pay their share of the debt difference. It appears to lay completely with the tax payer.

There is a real mis-trust of the body politic now, all parties included. I can't agree with the NAMA idea as it. I am guessing that the estimates of €90b are probably best case figures.

There plenty solutions out there but the correct one is the one for Irish people not the banks or developers. They made massive money for 15 years and they knew that property prices could rise and fall. They are property professionals, tax payers are not.

Lets hear the other solutions, there must be better ones.

Sand

we're all missing the objective, getting the economy going again is whats NAMA was supposed to be about. Getting money circulating to business and shops.

Some where along the line that translated into artifically supporting property prices at the expense of the tax payer.

I agree - this is the root of the problem. Somebody somewhere heard that having a functioning banking system is required for a functioning economy. They then decided that having a functioning AIB & BoI was required for a functioning economy. They then decided that the survival of AIB and BoI was a higher priority than the survival of the economy itself. Classic inability to see the wood for the trees...we're seeing evidence of this when Brian Lenihan is asked what impact the Zoe Group assets hitting market would have on NAMA..."None", indicating that NAMA is completelt divorced from market values/reality.

We are also hearing that the government will write "any cheques" to avoid naitionalisation of AIB and BoI, that they will avoid the collapse of BoI and AIB "at any cost". Really? "At any cost"? "any cheques"? At some point, the survival of BoI and AIB has replaced the survival of the economy in the priorities of the Department of Finance.

This is the real problem with the governments policy - they have confused BoI and AIB with the economy as a whole. Its very telling you hear very little of the governments plans for rejuvenating the economy, everything is about rejuvenating the banks balance sheets and praying something good happens as a result. Brian Lenihan at some point stopped being the Minister of Finance and instead became the Minister for AIB and BoI.

People like Aherne, the governments newest pet economist, are arguing that NAMA is going to make breakeven or even a profit on the loans. If so, given the banks are willing to accept the upfront loss, why dont they simply sit on the loans and manage them themselves, seeing as there is little or no advantage to passing them to NAMA? If theyre going to get this "long term economic value", then they might as well reap the "long term economic value" themselves.

Someone is going to get ****ed in this deal. Being the least informed (NAMA is deliberately clouded in secrecy) the taxpayer is the prime suspect for requiring industrial quantities of lube.

By the way - I am the least interested in "rent a mob" protestor ****e, but I am going to re-arrange flights so I can be there for September 12th. NAMA is the great crime of our generation. For the next 30 years, Ireland is going to be divided into two camps - those who opposed NAMA, and those who merely suffered it.

There is a lot wrong with the public service, but he was a special fncker who seemed to be in thrall to everybody except the public.

You can't taint 300,000 people with that fnckers contagion.

The phrase "political appointee" springs to mind.

That point was made in light of the concept that the public sector is somehow inherently better at managing a profit driven enterprise or even better at carrying out their own jobs and roles. I ammnt interested in going off topic any further than that.

Ostrom

Regarding the Economist's letter in the Times, perhaps someone could enlighten me....


Are there examples of debt for equity swaps in practice to such a level in other countries at present?

Would there a negotiation stage with the European Central Bank for the issuing of NAMA bonds, and do they have requirements for asset valuation?

What obligations would individual debtors incur?

Would re-capitalization through state shareholding involve the same bond issuing process as NAMA, and could an estimate of reduced liability be calculated assuming all proposed alternatives are taken into account?


Also, what guarantees are there that this wont just re-establish an unsustainable basis for profiting? Will any alternative rely on closer regulation?

Sorry, I'm probably using terms out of place.

Sand

Also, what guarantees are there that this wont just re-establish an unsustainable basis for profiting? Will any alternative rely on closer regulation?

Sorry, I'm probably using terms out of place.

There are no guarantees whatsoever on that front. In fact, this bailout pretty much sows the seeds for the next crisis in about 10 years time - think about it. You are a banker, if you leverage heavily and do well you claim a bonus. If you leverage heavily and do badly, you claim a bonus and pass the loss onto the taxpayer. What do you do? Leverage heavily? Correct.

Pretty much the guys who ran the banks into the ground are still in place, bar a few sacraficial lambs. Regulatory review/updates has also dropped completely off the radar. Fianna Fail have wedded themselves to the success of the banks, and the banks even with the bailout, will be in trouble - they will need to make a lot of profits, very quickly...theres two ways for the banks to make profits: first is the easy way - raising interest rates on variable rate mortgages (held mainly by taxpayers) ****ing over the very people paying to bail them out. Second is to leverage themselves heavily and hope they make lots of profit to recover all the losses they made the last time they leveraged themselves heavily. Only this time they have learned, and theyre really, really sorry and they will be really, really careful this time because they know the government really means it this time when they say they wont bail them out next time. Honest.

Saving AIB and BoI has completely replaced all other considerations for Fianna Fail. Nothing is as important as saving BoI and AIB shareholders and bond holders. Nothing, not even the economy. The AIB and BoI balance sheet has replaced all other considerations. The economy< BoI and AIB share prices....we dont have a government these days, we have a bank subsidy charity. And the banks know this.

Owen101

Great thread leonard, the Brendan O'Connor articles highlighted were particularly amusing.

The Fintan O Toole quote; "the State can get its money back only if we successfully inflate another property bubble." should be enough for everyone to put their hand on the alarm bell.

Mc Williams said it well in todays paper also NAMA money pit could be our economic Stalingrad.

I say let the fools who put us into this position fall so we can start the firesale of these assets immediately and start moving the hell on. They messed up the gamble so now they should pay. Manipulating the otherwise free market economy like this is the mother of all f*** up and will set us back years. Japan anyone?

Also dont forget Sweden only started a Nama after their bank was first nationalised. How much to pay for these toxic assets was never an issue as the Government held the good loans as well as the bad.

An Mr Lenihan, stop saying the credit flow to business will start once Nama kicks in. There is NO guarantee to that whatsoever. Instead look forward to higher interest rates & charges for all of us should they actually survive this hell. Like any private business the bank will simply do its upmost to protect its bottom line - the balance sheet. Nama is absolutely the best case scenario for them in saving their asses.

Cant wait for 12th September...

leonardjos

With only 9 days to go until the protest, its time to start working on a banner or placard. I've prepared a video to show how I made my one with simple materials from Woodies DIY. I used paint to write my message which was a bit time consuming. You could just as easily use permanent marker to write your message.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVk9LS0mnQM

Owen101

Great. Lets get into bed with probably the most evil & cynical institution the world has ever known :

Update1-Rothschild to advise on Irish banking rejig

simplistic

People NAMA is going to happen wheather you like it or love it. So everybody stop paying taxes and see what happens.

Owen101

simplistic wrote: »

People NAMA is going to happen wheather you like it or love it. So everybody stop paying taxes and see what happens.

But its HOW it happens and how they will use our taxes is the issue.

So, let's snap out of it. Why can't we just mark down prices to where they should get to, take the bankruptcies and move on?

Im sticking to orderly wind up, property firesale and smaller NAMA to oversee that thanks.

Captain Furball

Well guys you can bitch and moan on boards or go out and show yourself and be counted.I'm going to this march because as I'm sick and tired of the crap.

happyfriday74

I'll be at home.

To be honest who knows what will happen...Nama could work or it couldn't. If it does what its supposed to do its supposed to recapitalise the banks.

The organisation is supposed to operate like a bank and work out these loans that can we worked with and liquidate the developers who are hopeless cases.

A firesale will simply screw over those who bought in 2006 even more.

While the short term glee of seeing builders get turfed out their cribs will no doubt be sweet....what happens next?

We are still up sh1t creek without a paddle and our banks will still be fukced.