Liam O'Carroll decision due this evening

AARRRGH

The Supreme Court will give its decision after 5pm this evening on the Liam O'Carroll saga.

So we'll either know if NAMA is back on track or in trouble some time this evening.

We await the verdict...

Boskowski

AARRRGH wrote: »

The Supreme Court will give its decision after 5pm this evening on the Liam O'Carroll saga.

So we'll either know if NAMA is back on track or in trouble some time this evening.

We await the verdict...

Wouldn't expect anything that puts the government line in jeopardy, no way. If proven wrong I'd start to believe that some things actually function in our society.

AARRRGH

realcam wrote: »

Wouldn't expect anything that puts the government line in jeopardy, no way. If proven wrong I'd start to believe that some things actually function in our society.

I agree. I was considering buying AIB shares today in advance of Liam O'Carroll being saved, but I'm a scaredy cat.

SLUSK

I hope they let him fail but it would not surprise me if they bail him out instead of having his companies liquidated. Down with NAMA!

Sand

Game over.

This is going to cause huge issues for NAMA, politically if nothing else, as the market prices will be established and it will become desperately hard to claim the value NAMA wants to pay is a good deal even in the very long term.

tlev

Good, that is all I can say.

Salvelinus

One conncected chancer gets it. Hopefully many more to follow.

Fozzie Bear

At least our court system still works (sort of!) even if our government, financial, property, planning, regulatory and health systems are all fecked.

The correct judgement. Hopefully it will be the pebble in the pond that sets off many big and lasting ripples. NAMA to fail and the government to fall please for starters....

SLUSK

Wow now it actually feels a little better to be in this country than before. A big sale of properties will be triggered that will reveal the real value of these loans. ACC will probably only get 20-30% of their money back.

Salvelinus

If the property goes for lower than what everyone thought NAMA would get doesn't that ean the banks are still strapped for cash?

Sand

If the property goes for lower than what everyone thought NAMA would get doesn't that ean the banks are still strapped for cash?

Yes, but on the plus side it will be the banks that are strapped for cash, not the taxpayers.

Dont ever believe NAMA was going to remove the problem. It was just going to rescue the banks and **** the taxpayers. For reasons of dubious and unproven nature.

Such as Ireland being swamped by a huge tidal wave should the ancient curse of AIB/BoI be brought down upon us.

Theres plenty of ways the banks can manage their own risk with all the clever people they have, I mean they have guys worth 2 million euro a year! Im sure hell think of something to save the day.

Like who knows, exchanging bonds for equity at some markup? Existing shareholders get shagged but, thems the breaks.

Salvelinus

Believe me no one is happier that these failures are getting what they deserve. Also why didn't ACC hold out for more cash?

Koloman

No banks, no economy, simple!

Sand

ACC knows there is no more cash to be had. It simply wants to take the loss on the chin, clean up its balance sheet (removing the doubt over its assets that might affect shareprice) and move on. It has relatively little exposure to Irish property developers so its not an existensial issue for them.

It is for BoI and AIB. They were loving the idea of passing all the risk and loss onto the taxpayer, because thats a far better prospect than being forced to deal with their own problems. Now thats under threat, thankfully.

Koloman

Sand wrote: »

ACC knows there is no more cash to be had. It simply wants to take the loss on the chin, clean up its balance sheet (removing the doubt over its assets that might affect shareprice) and move on. It has relatively little exposure to Irish property developers so its not an existensial issue for them.

It is for BoI and AIB. They were loving the idea of passing all the risk and loss onto the taxpayer, because thats a far better prospect than being forced to deal with their own problems. Now thats under threat, thankfully.

But if the banks go under all bets are off! The taxpayer whether you like it or not will be footing the bill. It's unfortunate but there is nowhere else to go if we don't want to call in the IMF.

loobylou

SLUSK wrote: »

Wow now it actually feels a little better to be in this country than before. A big sale of properties will be triggered that will reveal the real value of these loans. ACC will probably only get 20-30% of their money back.

No, ACC will probably get all of it's money back, it gets first dibbs at the assets. It's the other banks that will lose out (mainly AIB), their best hope was for NAMA to ride to their rescue.

Salvelinus

Koloman wrote: »

But if the banks go under all bets are off! The taxpayer whether you like it or not will be footing the bill. It's unfortunate but there is nowhere else to go if we don't want to call in the IMF.

Thats my worry. Just with this judgemnet the developers get lose out but the banks still might need something.

meathstevie

Yes, without a doubt will the taxpayer foot the bulk of the bill but not before the banks have taken a beating either. The way it looked with NAMA for a while was that the old boys club was going to be bailed out to carry on as usual. The Supreme Court was clearly having none of it. Irish banking may be a big deal inside Ireland but on a European scale it means little or nothing. In the long run it might mean that European main players can take over the local banks for a realistic value and apply a bit of conventional banking strategies like ACC is doing now.

Salvelinus

meathstevie wrote: »

Yes, without a doubt will the taxpayer foot the bulk of the bill but not before the banks have taken a beating either. The way it looked with NAMA for a while was that the old boys club was going to be bailed out to carry on as usual. The Supreme Court was clearly having none of it. Irish banking may be a big deal inside Ireland but on a European scale it means little or nothing. In the long run it might mean that European main players can take over the local banks for a realistic value and apply a bit of conventional banking strategies like ACC is doing now.

Makes sense, thanks.

old boy

meathstevie wrote: »

Yes, without a doubt will the taxpayer foot the bulk of the bill but not before the banks have taken a beating either. The way it looked with NAMA for a while was that the old boys club was going to be bailed out to carry on as usual. The Supreme Court was clearly having none of it. Irish banking may be a big deal inside Ireland but on a European scale it means little or nothing. In the long run it might mean that European main players can take over the local banks for a realistic value and apply a bit of conventional banking strategies like ACC is doing now.

+100 the best thing that i have seen written about this shambles, hopefully the aib/boi crowd get shafted, joe public will probably have to foot the bill BUT the inner circle will feel the pain, and loose their cushy and plush subsidence.

Sand

No banks, no economy, simple!

BoI and AIB are not the only banks in Ireland, nor if they were to collapse would all other banks pull out of Ireland.

Yes, we need a banking service. That doesnt mean we need AIB or BoI to fufill that service.

If you want to consider AIB in particular, lets consider the service they have offered:

1979 - Charles Haughey settled his million pound debt with AIB on extremely favourable terms after he became Taoiseach. I remember this in particular because the same AIB manager who forgave Charlie his million pound loan threw a woman and her children out her home when she fell behind on her payments for a much smaller loan. The woman was interviewed when this came to light (tribunals) and her bitterness was hard to argue with.

1984 - The ICI (owned by AIB) collapses, due to mismangagement and ineptitude. Irish debt was 116% of GDP. But AIB was "too big to fail", so the Irish taxpaying donkeys were whipped into going into further debt by hundreds of millions to save AIB. Surely the bankers would learn their lesson?

2000 - Irish taxpayers were rewarded by AIB for their help with ICI when the DIRT tax evasion run by AIB came to light. Cheers lads.

2002 - John Rushnak runs up losses of 700 million, due again to incompetence, poor oversight and little or no risk control. But surely the banks would manage their risk properly from now on?

2004 - It comes to light that AIB has been overcharging its customers for FX transactions for up to 10 years. No one in AIB was disciplined or punished despite the regulator report showing AIB management were fully aware of what was going on.

The regulator also discovered that AIB overcharged about 70,000 customers for a variety of services.

2006 - 4 AIB senior executives are landed with tax bills plus penalties relating to Faldor, an investment company used by AIB senior executives. On a related note Faldor gets into trouble for creating artificial trades to enrich itself. Just cant get good help these days. Nobody in AIB was disciplined or punished.

**** AIB and their banking service. **** em. Let them burn.

Salvelinus

I've no problem with letting an organisation like that burn, it's customers losing out and staff I'd worry about.

AlekSmart

A good...no wait !!!...A GREAT day`s work by the Supreme Court,as it for once shows it`s INDEPENDENCE of Political buffoonery.

For sure the judgement causes all kinds of problems for the Banking sector,but it most assuredly forces those very institutions to deal with a mess VERY much of their own making.

I tend to view this as ACC`s Dutch Parent managing to take its problematic Irish Operation and give it a good shaking down.

Now at least,we will have a shot at TRUE value economics rather than the "Irish solution to an Irish problem" so beloved of the Haugheyites and their descendants.

I really hope that the Indigenous Banks now get cracking on this stuff and get it over with before moving on to whatever is needed to get this ruined little Nation back to some form of half-functionality.

Lets us also hope that the Government does`nt fly off in a huff and perform some mad Rescue-NAMA politicking designed to frustrate the Supreme Court`s ruling.......if so could the Cabinet be arrested and charged with Treachery...?......Perish the thought

Salvelinus

As good a day this is, it was a foreign bank that was the catalyst.

tlev

Salvelinus wrote: »

As good a day this is, it was a foreign bank that was the catalyst.

That's because they don't care about the buddy buddy system that is currently in place in Ireland.

Nermal

Koloman wrote: »

But if the banks go under all bets are off! The taxpayer whether you like it or not will be footing the bill. It's unfortunate but there is nowhere else to go if we don't want to call in the IMF.

When personal assets of developers, equity and debt holders of the banks are completely wiped, the taxpayer can take the temporary hit of setting up new banks. Not propping up ****e.

loobylou

I' m encouraged by the Supreme Court judgement, I must admit I thought they could have been "influenced". Looks like they are worth their pay.
However the establishment is not going to let this change anything. I predict a buyoff of ACC by the other banks/government/CIF.

who_ru

i agree 100% with Lobbylou, Lenihan and Cowan will pressure AIB into buying out the ACC debt, approx 136m euro, chicken feed compared to what NAMA is gearing up to pay these banks to take their shocking property lending bad debts off them. this will not stop NAMA because NAMA is political in nature and will not end up before the Supreme Court. the only way to stop it is to scrap this piece of legislation, but that can only be done by having an election, FF/Greens losing power and a new Govt. we are a long way off that one i'm afraid.

jister

loobylou wrote: »

I' m encouraged by the Supreme Court judgement, I must admit I thought they could have been "influenced". Looks like they are worth their pay.
However the establishment is not going to let this change anything. I predict a buyoff of ACC by the other banks/government/CIF.

Even if they do this it exposes the NAMA scam even more. I've been scanning a number of politicial, financial and sporting forums this evening and every post on every thread is happy that NAMA could go tits up. It was a dodgy deal before tonight but at this stage there must be enough rebel politicans queueing up to pull the rug from under clowen and his gang.

Think of people like the greens, they will be buried as a party forever when NAMA crusifies the country.

kevteljeur

loobylou wrote: »

I' m encouraged by the Supreme Court judgement, I must admit I thought they could have been "influenced". Looks like they are worth their pay.
However the establishment is not going to let this change anything. I predict a buyoff of ACC by the other banks/government/CIF.

I'd be surprised. It's a non-trivial amount, and once one of them makes a grab, the rest will follow. No-one can afford to lose out here. There are also non-bank interests (Isn't Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown CC making a grab too?) and it all adds up to quite a queue.

I don't know for certain, but I'd imagine the Dutch parent of ACC to be made of more ruthless material than the local outfits.



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ABEasy

loobylou wrote: »

I' m encouraged by the Supreme Court judgement, I must admit I thought they could have been "influenced". Looks like they are worth their pay.
However the establishment is not going to let this change anything. I predict a buyoff of ACC by the other banks/government/CIF.

+1 I think the move by ACC was to force the others to buy out their debt at a higher value than NAMA were willing to pay, The others have so much to lose they might as well be 'hung for a sheep rather than a lamb'

kevteljeur

jister wrote: »

Even if they do this it exposes the NAMA scam even more. I've been scanning a number of politicial, financial and sporting forums this evening and every post on every thread is happy that NAMA could go tits up. It was a dodgy deal before tonight but at this stage there must be enough rebel politicans queueing up to pull the rug from under clowen and his gang.

Think of people like the greens, they will be buried as a party forever when NAMA crusifies the country.

Whoever succeeds the current set-up (I'm starting to think that October or November will see a new government) will inherit the same problems, and sadly won't be capable of a truly ground-breaking or even half-clever solution. They'll just run with it, and claim they're keeping a stern watch over it. Once NAMA is up and running, I can't see how they'll shut it down in anything less than decades.

And this Liam Carroll episode is going to render it useless and dangerous as an idea before it even gets moving.



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