Dsmythy's football bets

dsmythy

Sure everyone else is having a shot so i may as well join in. Avoided labelling myself as pro and being a money machine because i'm not the former and i may not be the latter either :P A nice neutral thread title.

My bets are based on a system. It does require some human input so it's not an entirely automated beast.

Each bet is one unit. Level stakes regardless of price. 1 bet = 1 unit

Bank is 15 units. It's a bit on the small side but let's face it it wouldn't be much fun updating the thread hanging around the -15 loss mark. By this stage i will have abandoned betting this season in this manner anyway.

Bets are for the top four English divisions. Bets are always singles. They are not tips, just the bets i'm doing and we see how successful or otherwise i can be.

And of course i'm willing to end up -15 on my record and it's money i can afford to lose as betting always should be.


All comments welcome throughout the thread.


Having said all of that i have no bets for the opening of the Championship-League Two leagues this weekend. Being at 0 beats being at -4 through betting on things you bet on purely for interest's sake.

Closest team i came to backing was Wycombe away to Charlton in League One. The price was only marginally smaller than desired. Speaking of away teams, when i was making my calculations for this weekend, a lot of the games where the system leaned towards one team over another it seems to have leaned towards the away teams with regards to value. 69% of these 28 "leanings" were towards the odds of the away sides. I don't know whether it's just an anomoly this week or if layers are actively targetting away teams but will be interesting to see how things unfold over the course of the next couple of days.

My underestimated teams of the upcoming season are Stoke, Blackpool, Preston, Walsall, Oldham, Tranmere and Morecambe

The teams being overestimated IMO are Blackburn, QPR, Derby, Brighton, Charlton, Notts County and Cheltenham

These are based on the difference between my ranking of the teams in order of rating and their position in betting markets.

Hopefully i'll have a bet on the table next week. Good luck to all.

dsmythy

Finally some bets for me to do! Two to be precise.

Hartlepool v Charlton 2/1 Paddy Power

Wycombe v Leeds 3/1 Ladbrokes

thedini

Good luck with it, at least there appears to be a method to the madness which is unusual in these parts. Have you used it in prior seasons? much sucesss?

dsmythy

thedini wrote: »

Good luck with it, at least there appears to be a method to the madness which is unusual in these parts. Have you used it in prior seasons? much sucesss?

It managed a +10.85% ROI in the 07/08 season. For the season just gone i only used it up until early december when other commitments took away the time for me to work out the bets. Up until that time the ROI was a more... shall we say modest... +1.93%...

So i'm back this season to see if it's a one season wonder or not.

TheRock

dsmythy wrote: »

Finally some bets for me to do! Two to be precise.

Wycombe v Leeds 3/1 Ladbrokes

Why Wycombe?? Leeds look like being very strong in this division this year.

If you did fancy Wycombe to do well in this game, I think you would be better off Laying Leeds at 2.0. Therefor getting Even money on Wycombe or the draw.

dsmythy

TheRock wrote: »

Why Wycombe?? Leeds look like being very strong in this division this year.

If you did fancy Wycombe to do well in this game, I think you would be better off Laying Leeds at 2.0. Therefor getting Even money on Wycombe or the draw.

Cheers for the advice. Certainly one to consider for anyone else looking at the game. For the system i just look at backing teams to win.

As for the reason Wycombe was thrown up as a bet. I think it's a combination of things.

The previous two years i had Leeds rated top team in the league. Both years i lost money on them during the season. So i guess i was wary when considering their rating for this year. The loss of Delph reduced it further.

The odds tend to be skewed when it comes to Leeds. There's a lot of pressure on it from people backing Leeds i woiuld imagine.

Finally i have Wycombe comfortable mid-table and i'm clearly in disagreement with the general view on it so this would push the bet towards Wycombe also. Teams coming up from League Two have done alright in League One. For the last six years only 3 promoted sides got relegated.

dsmythy

Bank: 15

dsmythy wrote: »

Hartlepool v Charlton 2/1 Paddy Power -1

Wycombe v Leeds 3/1 Ladbrokes -1

New bank: 13
Bets: 2
Wins: 0
Profit/Loss: -2

dsmythy

5 picks for midweek fixtures. Two familiar teams being opposed from League One. Two home teams selected against superior top 4 opposition in the Prem and one from the Championship to close out. All home teams oddly enough.

I do kind of wish i was getting higher hit bets to do but outside low-hit high reward bets seem to be the flavour of things thus far. My small bank could end up in trouble early on! 1 bet=1 unit as usual.

Sunderland v Chelsea 13/2 Boyles
Burnley v Manchester United 11/1 Boyles
Blackpool v Derby County 6/4 Victor Chandler
Leyton Orient v Charlton 21/10 Paddy Power
Walsall v Leeds United 3/1 Paddy Power

orourkeda

I've got to say Wigan at about 4\5 to beat Wolves at home looks bet of the week after their performance on saturday. They played fantastically. A repeat performance would make them difficult to beat.

You can also get spurs at evens to beat Hull

hawaii501

i think boro's odds are very generous at 5/4(PP) to beat scunthorpe away, that would be my bet of the week due to their convincing victory at the Liberty stadium and the talent they have available.

dsmythy

Disasterous unless Burnley pull off a surprise. 3 of the 4 teams tonight were actually ahead at one stage. That's how it goes though. I'll keep plugging away unless we hit -15 nonetheless.

dsmythy

Bank: 13

dsmythy wrote: »

Sunderland v Chelsea 13/2 Boyles -1
Burnley v Manchester United 11/1 Boyles +11
Blackpool v Derby County 6/4 Victor Chandler -1
Leyton Orient v Charlton 21/10 Paddy Power -1
Walsall v Leeds United 3/1 Paddy Power -1

New bank: 20
Bets: 7
Wins: 1
Profit/Loss: +5

dsmythy

Long shot central this weekend it would seem.

Wigan v Manchester United 6/1 Ladbrokes
West Ham v Tottenham 2/1 Ladbrokes
Fulham v Chelsea 6/1 Ladbrokes
Crystal Palace v Newcastle 21/10 Paddy Power
Charlton v Walsall 6/1 Ladbrokes
Leeds v Tranmere 7/1 Ladbrokes

8-10

dsmythy wrote: »

Long shot central this weekend it would seem.

Wigan v Manchester United 6/1 Ladbrokes
West Ham v Tottenham 2/1 Ladbrokes
Fulham v Chelsea 6/1 Ladbrokes
Crystal Palace v Newcastle 21/10 Paddy Power
Charlton v Walsall 6/1 Ladbrokes
Leeds v Tranmere 7/1 Ladbrokes

I don't think West Ham is a bad bet, 9/4 with bet365. Spurs ALWAYS concede. Is Gomes out injured? Came off in the midweek game after falling awkwardly. Plus they still don't have their best centre-halves.

dsmythy

8-10 wrote: »

I don't think West Ham is a bad bet, 9/4 with bet365. Spurs ALWAYS concede. Is Gomes out injured? Came off in the midweek game after falling awkwardly. Plus they still don't have their best centre-halves.

Gomes is injured alright but Cudicini steps in. I'm not sure Gomes being injured is a bad thing for Spurs... Still West Ham at home at 2/1 is a shocking price. Worth a bet i say.

dsmythy

Bank 20

dsmythy wrote: »

Long shot central this weekend it would seem.

Wigan v Manchester United 6/1 Ladbrokes -1
West Ham v Tottenham 2/1 Ladbrokes -1
Fulham v Chelsea 6/1 Ladbrokes -1
Crystal Palace v Newcastle 21/10 Paddy Power -1
Charlton v Walsall 6/1 Ladbrokes -1
Leeds v Tranmere 7/1 Ladbrokes -1

New bank: 14
Bets: 13
Wins: 1
Profit/Loss: -1

dsmythy

Two bets for the weekend.

Portsmouth v Manchester City 11/2 Bet365
Tranmere v Charlton 12/5 Bet365

dsmythy

Bank 14

dsmythy wrote: »

Two bets for the weekend.

Portsmouth v Manchester City 11/2 Bet365 -1
Tranmere v Charlton 12/5 Bet365 -1

New bank: 12
Bets: 15
Wins: 1
Profit/Loss: -3

dsmythy

Bets for upcoming Friday/Saturday games.

Charlton v Brentford 5/1 Victor Chandler
Carlisle v Tranmere 3/1 Bet365
Morecambe v Rochdale 2/1 Bet365
Northampton v Barnet 1/1 Paddy Power
Rotherham v Chesterfield 5/4 Bet365

dsmythy

Bank: 12

dsmythy wrote: »

Bets for upcoming Friday/Saturday games.

Charlton v Brentford 5/1 Victor Chandler -1
Carlisle v Tranmere 3/1 Bet365 -1
Morecambe v Rochdale 2/1 Bet365 -1
Northampton v Barnet 1/1 Paddy Power -1
Rotherham v Chesterfield 5/4 Bet365 +1

New bank: 9
Bets: 20
Wins: 2
Profit/Loss: -6

dsmythy

Three for midweek Championship games.

Derby v Barnsley 4/1 Boyles
Sheffield Wednesday v Middlesbrough 21/10 William Hill
Blackpool v Newcastle 13/5 Boyles

Made mistake in my previous post. Obviously winning at 5/4 means +1.25 not +1

So before these bets are placed:

New bank: 9.25
Bets: 20
Wins: 2
Profit/Loss: -5.75

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Derby v Barnsley 4/1 Boyles +4
Sheffield Wednesday v Middlesbrough 21/10 William Hill -1
Blackpool v Newcastle 13/5 Boyles +2.6

New bank: 14.85
Bets: 23
Wins: 4
Profit/Loss: -0.15

dsmythy

Bets for this weekend.

West Ham v Liverpool 11/2 Paddy Power
Chelsea v Tottenham 8/15 Stan James
Exeter v Tranmere 11/4 SkyBet
Oldham v Carlisle 6/4 Bet365
Darlington v Bournemouth 3/1 Paddy Power
Morecambe v Notts County 7/2 Ladbrokes
Port Vale v Bury 12/5 Victor Chandler

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

West Ham v Liverpool 11/2 Paddy Power -1
Chelsea v Tottenham 8/15 Stan James +0.53
Exeter v Tranmere 11/4 SkyBet -1
Oldham v Carlisle 6/4 Bet365 +1.5
Darlington v Bournemouth 3/1 Paddy Power -1
Morecambe v Notts County 7/2 Ladbrokes +3.5
Port Vale v Bury 12/5 Victor Chandler +2.4

New bank: 19.78
Bets: 30
Wins: 8
Profit/Loss: +4.78

dsmythy

This weekend's football bets.....

Portsmouth v Everton 10/3 Ladbrokes
Stoke v Manchester United 9/1 Ladbrokes
Fulham v Arsenal 13/2 William Hill
Ipswich v Newcastle 2/1 Paddy Power
Milton Keynes Dons v Leeds 2/1 Bet365
Dagenham & Redbridge v Morecambe 5/1 Paddy Power
Rotherham v Barnet 10/11 Victor Chandler

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

This weekend's football bets.....

Portsmouth v Everton 10/3 Ladbrokes -1
Stoke v Manchester United 9/1 Ladbrokes -1
Fulham v Arsenal 13/2 William Hill -1
Ipswich v Newcastle 2/1 Paddy Power -1
Milton Keynes Dons v Leeds 2/1 Bet365 -1
Dagenham & Redbridge v Morecambe 5/1 Paddy Power -1
Rotherham v Barnet 10/11 Victor Chandler +0.91

New bank: 14.69
Bets: 37
Wins: 9
Profit/Loss: -0.31

dsmythy

Midweek fixtures:

Cardiff v Derby 10/11 SkyBet
Sheffield United v Ipswich 9/2 Boyles
Colchester v Charlton 2/1 Victor Chandler
Crewe v Bury 23/10 Bet365
Darlington v Rochdale 10/3 Ladbrokes
Hereford v Bournemouth 3/1 Ladbrokes
Lincoln v Notts County 3/1 Bet365

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Midweek fixtures:

Cardiff v Derby 10/11 SkyBet +0.91
Sheffield United v Ipswich 9/2 Boyles -1
Colchester v Charlton 2/1 Victor Chandler +2
Crewe v Bury 23/10 Bet365 +2.30
Darlington v Rochdale 10/3 Ladbrokes -1
Hereford v Bournemouth 3/1 Ladbrokes +3
Lincoln v Notts County 3/1 Bet365 -1

New bank: 19.90
Bets: 44
Wins: 13
Profit/Loss: +4.90

dsmythy

Weekend games


Bolton v Tottenham 10/3 SkyBet

Chelsea v Liverpool 6/5 VC Bet

Aston Villa v Manchester City 7/4 Bet365

Newcastle v Bristol City 6/1 Bet365

Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons 6/4 Ladbrokes

Barnet V Grimsby 7/2 Ladbrokes

Crewe v Rotherham 6/4 Paddy Power

Hereford v Dagenham & Redbridge 12/5 SkyBet

Northampton v Bradford 13/8 Paddy Power

Torquay v Bury 5/4 Ladbrokes

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Weekend games


Bolton v Tottenham 10/3 SkyBet -1

Chelsea v Liverpool 6/5 VC Bet +1.20

Aston Villa v Manchester City 7/4 Bet365 -1

Newcastle v Bristol City 6/1 Bet365 -1

Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons 6/4 Ladbrokes +1.50

Barnet V Grimsby 7/2 Ladbrokes -1

Crewe v Rotherham 6/4 Paddy Power +1.50

Hereford v Dagenham & Redbridge 12/5 SkyBet -1

Northampton v Bradford 13/8 Paddy Power -1

Torquay v Bury 5/4 Ladbrokes -1

New bank: 17.10
Bets: 54
Wins: 16
Profit/Loss: +2.10

dsmythy

Games Saturday - Monday. Mainly longshots.

Charlton v Oldham 5/1 Ladbrokes
Leyton Orient v Colchester 5/2 Bet365
Tranmere v Stockport 7/5 Boyles
Aldershot v Morecambe 3/1 Ladbrokes
Dagenham & Redbridge v Darlington 7/1 Coral
Notts County v Torquay 8/1 Ladbrokes

Gavin "shels"

Barnes and McAteer just been sacked from Tranmere, going to be a dodgy match I'd say.

dsmythy

Gavin shels wrote: »

Barnes and McAteer just been sacked from Tranmere, going to be a dodgy match I'd say.

Hopefully the further away Barnes travels from the stadium the better the team will play.

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Games Saturday - Monday. Mainly longshots.

Charlton v Oldham 5/1 Ladbrokes -1
Leyton Orient v Colchester 5/2 Bet365 -1
Tranmere v Stockport 7/5 Boyles -1
Aldershot v Morecambe 3/1 Ladbrokes -1
Dagenham & Redbridge v Darlington 7/1 Coral -1
Notts County v Torquay 8/1 Ladbrokes -1

0/6. Always a possibility at the type of prices put up.

New bank: 11.10
Bets: 60
Wins: 16
Profit/Loss: -3.90

dsmythy

Aston Villa v Chelsea 9/2 Bet365

Manchester United v Bolton 1/4 Bet365

Portsmouth v Tottenham 7/2 Ladbrokes

Blackburn v Burnley 4/1 Boyles

Wigan v Manchester City 9/2 Stan James

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle 2/1 SkyBet

Charlton v Huddersfield 10/3 Ladbrokes

Stockport v Millwall 6/4 Ladbrokes

Tranmere v Brighton 2/1 William Hill

Aldershot v Bury 2/1 Ladbrokes

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Aston Villa v Chelsea 9/2 Bet365 +4.5

Manchester United v Bolton 1/4 Bet365 +0.25

Portsmouth v Tottenham 7/2 Ladbrokes -1

Blackburn v Burnley 4/1 Boyles -1

Wigan v Manchester City 9/2 Stan James -1

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle 2/1 SkyBet +2

Charlton v Huddersfield 10/3 Ladbrokes -1

Stockport v Millwall 6/4 Ladbrokes +1.5

Tranmere v Brighton 2/1 William Hill +2

Aldershot v Bury 2/1 Ladbrokes +2

New bank: 19.35
Bets: 70
Wins: 22
Profit/Loss: +4.35

dsmythy

Birmingham v Sunderland 2/1 Betfred

Hull v Portsmouth 13/8 Boyles

Tottenham v Stoke 15/2 SkyBet

Chelsea v Blackburn 1/5 Ladbrokes

Liverpool v Manchester United 2/1 Bet365

West Ham v Arsenal 6/1 Ladbrokes

Hartlepool v Tranmere 10/3 VC Bet

Southampton v Milton Keynes Dons 2/1 Ladbrokes

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Birmingham v Sunderland 2/1 Betfred +2

Hull v Portsmouth 13/8 Boyles -1

Tottenham v Stoke 15/2 SkyBet +7.5

Chelsea v Blackburn 1/5 Ladbrokes +0.2

Liverpool v Manchester United 2/1 Bet365 +2

West Ham v Arsenal 6/1 Ladbrokes -1

Hartlepool v Tranmere 10/3 VC Bet -1

Southampton v Milton Keynes Dons 2/1 Ladbrokes -1

New bank: 27.05
Bets: 78
Wins: 26
Profit/Loss: +12.05

srmufc

Good betting...especially on Stoke. They ruined many a accumulator this weekend.

dsmythy

Arsenal v Tottenham 8/13 Ladbrokes

Stoke v Wolves 10/11 Paddy Power

Manchester United v Blackburn 1/6 Paddy Power

Sheffield United v Newcastle 15/8 Boyles

Carlisle v Charlton 6/5 Paddy Power

Leyton Orient v Southampton 11/4 Ladbrokes

Milton Keynes Dons v Bristol Rovers 5/6 Paddy Power

Burton v Bury 17/10 VC Bet

Notts County v Shrewsbury 9/2 BetFred

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Arsenal v Tottenham 8/13 Ladbrokes +0.62

Stoke v Wolves 10/11 Paddy Power -1

Manchester United v Blackburn 1/6 Paddy Power +0.17

Sheffield United v Newcastle 15/8 Boyles -1

Carlisle v Charlton 6/5 Paddy Power -1

Leyton Orient v Southampton 11/4 Ladbrokes -1

Milton Keynes Dons v Bristol Rovers 5/6 Paddy Power +0.83

Burton v Bury 17/10 VC Bet -1

Notts County v Shrewsbury 9/2 BetFred -1

Stoke and Leyton Orient blew 2 goal leads while Shrewsbury conceded late. Could of been better but football is a 90 minute game unfortunately

New bank: 22.67
Bets: 87
Wins: 29
Profit/Loss: +7.67

dsmythy

Aston Villa v Bolton 4/5 VC Bet

Liverpool v Birmingham 4/11 Boyles

Sheffield Wednesday v Queens Park Rangers 19/10 Bet365

Swansea v Cardiff 2/1 Stan James

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Aston Villa v Bolton 4/5 VC Bet +0.8

Liverpool v Birmingham 4/11 Boyles -1

Sheffield Wednesday v Queens Park Rangers 19/10 Bet365 -1

Swansea v Cardiff 2/1 Stan James -1

New bank: 20.47
Bets: 91
Wins: 30
Profit/Loss: +5.47

dsmythy

Southampton v Brighton 5/1 Bet365

Bury v Notts County 9/5 Bet365

Crewe v Morecambe 10/3 Bet365

heavyballs

r u just picking these bets out willy nilly or what,that's not a slag off i'm just wering r u actually backing these teams for real?

dsmythy

heavyballs wrote: »

r u just picking these bets out willy nilly or what,that's not a slag off i'm just wering r u actually backing these teams for real?

First post should explain it. I give the teams a rating and put their rating through a formula which gives me odds and bet using that information. I'm doing all these bets myself. All to the same level bet size regardless of odds.

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Southampton v Brighton 5/1 Bet365 +5

Bury v Notts County 9/5 Bet365 -1

Crewe v Morecambe 10/3 Bet365 +3.33

Bury had the lead three times in their game but still only drew. Frustrating...

New bank: 27.80
Bets: 94
Wins: 32
Profit/Loss: +12.80

dsmythy

Chelsea v Wolverhampton 1/6 Boyle Sports

Sunderland v Arsenal 5/1 Paddy Power

Manchester United v Everton 2/5 Ladbrokes

Stoke v Portsmouth 11/10 Paddy Power

Hull v West Ham 15/8 Bet365

Barnsley v Cardiff 7/5 Ladbrokes

Middlesbrough v Nottingham Forest 10/3 Betfred

Preston v Newcastle 11/5 Coral

Yeovil v Charlton 5/4 Boyle Sports

Northampton v Crewe 5/4 Bet365

Torquay v Rotherham 11/8 VC Bet

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Chelsea v Wolverhampton 1/6 Boyle Sports +0.17

Sunderland v Arsenal 5/1 Paddy Power +5

Manchester United v Everton 2/5 Ladbrokes +0.4

Stoke v Portsmouth 11/10 Paddy Power +1.1

Hull v West Ham 15/8 Bet365 -1

Barnsley v Cardiff 7/5 Ladbrokes -1

Middlesbrough v Nottingham Forest 10/3 Betfred -1

Preston v Newcastle 11/5 Coral -1

Yeovil v Charlton 5/4 Boyle Sports -1

Northampton v Crewe 5/4 Bet365 -1

Torquay v Rotherham 11/8 VC Bet +1.38

New bank: 29.85
Bets: 103
Wins: 37
Profit/Loss: +14.85

dsmythy

Midweek fixtures. Most away from home.

Milton Keynes Dons v Carlisle 7/10 VC Bet

Norwich City v Brighton & Hove Albion 5/1 VC Bet

Swindon v Huddersfield 8/5 Bambury

Walsall v Oldham 12/5 SkyBet

Aldershot v Northampton 5/2 SkyBet

Hereford v Shrewsbury 19/10 VC Bet

dsmythy

dsmythy wrote: »

Midweek fixtures. Most away from home.

Milton Keynes Dons v Carlisle 7/10 VC Bet -1

Norwich City v Brighton & Hove Albion 5/1 VC Bet -1

Swindon v Huddersfield 8/5 Bambury -1

Walsall v Oldham 12/5 SkyBet -1

Aldershot v Northampton 5/2 SkyBet -1

Hereford v Shrewsbury 19/10 VC Bet -1

Poor midweek.

New bank: 23.85
Bets: 109
Wins: 37
Profit/Loss: +8.85