Let's make some money!

coffism

Decided to start a new thread as an experiment to become a tipster and see if i can make a profit in the long run (and prove that i'm a great tipster :P)

Tips will be mostly horses with the odd cricket, soccer and other sports thrown in...

Everybody welcome to give their opinions and their own tips, the only rule being that you must give a full reason...

Trampas

and you give your full reason why you are selecting them.

coffism

First selection...

England first innings runs v Australia: 3 points under 390.5 @ 10/11 (bet365)

two reasons... First, the weather is forecasted to be very poor which will make it tough for batting and they could lose early wickets - australia lost seven wickets in the morning session today.
Second, as the forecast is so poor a limited number of overs may be possible, meaning they probably would need to be batting until afternoon on day four to get 387. But this would leave them with only four and a half sessions to bowl the aussies out and to maybe bat themselves again so they'd probably declare before reaching 387.

Good enough trampas?

Trampas

coffism wrote: »

First selection...

England first innings runs v Australia: 3 points under 387.5 @ 5/6 (will hill)

two reasons... First, the weather is forecasted to be very poor which will make it tough for batting and they could lose early wickets - australia lost seven wickets in the morning session today.
Second, as the forecast is so poor a limited number of overs may be possible, meaning they probably would need to be batting until afternoon on day four to get 387. But this would leave them with only four and a half sessions to bowl the aussies out and to maybe bat themselves again so they'd probably declare before reaching 387.

Good enough trampas?

That is fine.

There is no way England will declare for less than 400. They will want to build a lead so they do not need to bat again. To declare for less than 387 will mean they will either need to bowl the Oz out cheaply or bat again hoping to chase around 100 or so. I say they will try and make sure they can't lose and if they win it is a bonus.

I doubt they will make 400 as there has to be moisture in the air to make the ball swing. I haven't seen any of the game yet or the ashes as away on holidays but it really comes down to the Aussies bowlers can they swing the ball and hit the right spots.

I say it is worth a punt due to the conditions but I wouldn't be looking at declaring for helping you out.

coffism

hmmm, i had thought of the english playing negative but i reckon if 40-50 overs are washed out in the next day and a half they might declare for less than 400 to at least give themselves a chance of winning...

but i don't think they'll last until then anyway...

Trampas

England negative play will mean they will bat longer.

2 overs will be lost between innings so 2 overs saved for not batting again (only getting technical)

If I was putting money on it I would be going for England not to bat again.

You will get 390.5 runs at odds of 10/11 on Bet365

coffism

Trampas wrote: »

You will get 390.5 runs at odds of 10/11 on Bet365

cheers trampas, just backed it with bet365

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

coffism

My nap for today, 1pt each way Rainbow View 3.05 Goodwood. (9/2 boyles)

I'm giving her one last chance. I hope the rain will come for her (best form as juvenile on softish ground) and a mile and a quarter around goodwood should be ideal as she was picking up places at the end of her last few 8f races. I think the form behind goldikova is good and she'll be better today.

Famous45

she'll be better today

You should rephrase that to you hope she'll be better today because you have no way of knowing how she will run.

Personally I won't be following the thread but out of respect to others who will do I hope you update the thread with your profit/loss after each selection has been settled.

Another thing to factor in is that some people will actually bet on your selections so, from my view, anyone who partakes in starting such a thread, should in reality post a copy of their bet, seeing as though you bet online that should not pose a problem to you.

Best of luck

thedini

^^^^^
Why should somebody post a copy of their bet? if that was the case then everybody should do it.

yaaaboy

well its a known fact that rainbow view runs better on softer ground and hasnt been racing on the ground it likes (and needs) recently so she will almost definetly run better today..
personally i dont think rainbow will win the race today but you cant really fault coffism for saying she'll be better which she will almost certainly be. The amount of time that it takes rainbow view to run the race is key here and in theory it should be better than the times of her previous races ran on ground that wasnt ideal.

Its all about each persons opinion and coffism believes and says that rainbow view will be better today..so maybe you have some inside information coffism???

Also its a bit ridiculous asking someone to post up their betting slips, the 'enemy' here is (and always will be) the greedy bookmakers so any tipster thread aimed at transparent discussion should be welcomed. However it is a good idea to post up the profit and loss after each selection has finished in case some gulobol people are putting all their hard earned cash down on coffism's fancys..

coffism

Famous45 wrote: »

Another thing to factor in is that some people will actually bet on your selections so, from my view, anyone who partakes in starting such a thread, should in reality post a copy of their bet, seeing as though you bet online that should not pose a problem to you.

Ha i wonder if tom segal was ever asked to provide copies of his betting slips when tipping...

Famous45 wrote: »

You should rephrase that to you hope she'll be better today because you have no way of knowing how she will run.

sorry, i thought she would run better than she has so far this season... which she did so maybe i did know it! :eek:

+ .125pts

coffism

so what does everybody think of the goings on at Edgbaston?

Trampas

I say you can be pretty certain now that it is going to be a draw.

This will mean England will bat till the cows come up and we might even see Freddie moving down the batting order to give him as much rest as possible.

coffism

yup pretty certainly a draw, the morning session will probably be called off tomorrow aswell cause of the outfield...

but the forecast is meant to be good which means the aussies probably won't be able to get it to swing as much as the english... pity.

anyone any ideas for horses at Galway tomorrow?

Famous45

tom segal

The above is a recognised tipster, you are not. If people who follow your word want to bet when you actually haven't then good luck to them.

Famous45

sorry, i thought she would run better than she has so far this season... which she did so maybe i did know it!

You ain't got to apologise, I was purely referring to your use of language rather than your actual tip. Saying you know a horse will run better today is myth because you don't actualy know how the horse is performing. If you'd have phrased it as I said, ie: I expect it to run well considering it has favourable conditions then, I wouldn't have had a problem.

I ain't here to knock you but purely to make others recognise that there is 1000's of people posting on forums of what they fancy but in reality they never ever bet. If you are going to start a thread with your own fancies on a regular basis then I think its only right that you post your bet for an initial period. As the say goes put your money where your mouth is.

Best of luck.

coffism

Famous45 wrote: »

Personally I won't be following the thread...

Best of luck

Anybody have any constructive points which might help us all??

I'm looking into the GAA matches tomorrow... Cork seem like they could put up a big score, just looking at the handicap...

coffism

2pts cork -3 to beat Donegal @11/10 (ladbrokes)
1pt double most points to come in second half of both of todays GAA matches, both @ evens (boyles)

Think Donegal will lack the desire. The other bet is cause all defences should be tiring at the end of the games.

myflipflops

coffism wrote: »

Anybody have any constructive points which might help us all??

You're already having too many bets and trying to cover too many sports/markets. It's borderline impossible to have an edge across a wider range like that.

You're tips include multiples which is to be avoided. Whatever about beating singles, you give up so much margin backing doubles and upwards that you can't make a profit.

You're not being price sensitive. Price is the be be all and end all. Every tip should be based on the price being too big.

Desert Orchid

Generally I'd agree with pwhite. However, I have this gut feeling that if you're getting value on the singles you're getting multiple value on the multiples.

For example, if the true odds on each of two selections are 2/1, the true double odds are 8/1. If you're getting 3/1 on each of the horses, which is great, then the double is paying 15/1, almost twice the true odds.

dsmythy

Don't know why he should post his bets

Sure keep a record of the bets but i doubt anyone is going to start backing some guy's bets he puts up on a forum without knowing his record unless they have zero ability to think for themselves. No-one has to bet on his selections.

I might start up my own thread on the upcoming football season too for the laugh. See who can do best.

coffism

coffism wrote: »

First selection...

England first innings runs v Australia: 3 points under 390.5 @ 10/11 (bet365) +2.72pts

up 2.84pts overall..

coffism

coffism wrote: »

2pts cork -3 to beat Donegal @11/10 (ladbrokes) +2.2pts
1pt double most points to come in second half of both of todays GAA matches, both @ evens (boyles) -1pt

up 4.04pts overall..

coffism

pwhite587 wrote: »

You're tips include multiples which is to be avoided. Whatever about beating singles, you give up so much margin backing doubles and upwards that you can't make a profit.

I generally agree, i harldy ever double up... you won't see one up here again.

pwhite587 wrote: »

You're not being price sensitive. Price is the be be all and end all. Every tip should be based on the price being too big.

Very true but i think all my selections so far have been overpriced. Every bet struck should be due to the price being too big.. it's the only way to make money in the long run.

That's not to say that you shouldn't back odds-on shots, if i see an overpriced 1/5 shot i'll back it. I think the hardest thing to find is a staking plan that works.

8-10

dsmythy wrote: »

I might start up my own thread on the upcoming football season too for the laugh. See who can do best.

Not trying to hijack coiffism's thread here but that's not a bad idea. If there's a few people interested in trying to tip for the new season I'm sure we could try keep a little league table, say everyone makes 3 selections a week or so at the same stake and see who's top at the end?

I might set up a thread soon and gauge interest. Could be a bit of fun.

yaaaboy

coffism wrote: »

I'm looking into the GAA matches tomorrow... Cork seem like they could put up a big score, just looking at the handicap...

well you got that one bang on, i wonder what the handicap was -10 or 12 points. That double was a bit of a weak effort though, to say that the defences would be tired is rather foolish - if that was the case then the forwards would be tired too? We would want to be getting better reasons than that in a thread where you say you want a "full reason"!

dsmythy wrote: »

Don't know why he should post his bets

Sure keep a record of the bets but i doubt anyone is going to start backing some guy's bets he puts up on a forum without knowing his record unless they have zero ability to think for themselves. No-one has to bet on his selections.

I might start up my own thread on the upcoming football season too for the laugh. See who can do best.

i dont think he is asking anyone to bet on his selections just tryin to give a bit of advice and encourage a bit of debate whilst making people aware of particular bets..people wont (or shouldnt) bet unless they fancy the selection. I think thats a great idea to start your own thread about the football, anyone that makes me aware of a bet i may have otherwise missed is appreciated in my book.

x MarK x

Im not yet sure of the odds, but im having a bet on Dubs to be winning at half time and for Kerry to beat them. Should be in the 6/1, 7/1 region. My reason, the Dubs have a history of leading at HT in the big games, and then throwing the lead away.

x MarK x

yaaaboy wrote: »

well you got that one bang on, i wonder what the handicap was -10 or 12 points. That double was a bit of a weak effort though, to say that the defences would be tired is rather foolish - if that was the case then the forwards would be tired too? We would want to be getting better reasons than that in a thread where you say you want a "full reason"!
i dont think he is asking anyone to bet on his selections just tryin to give a bit of advice and encourage a bit of debate whilst making people aware of particular bets..people wont (or shouldnt) bet unless they fancy the selection. I think thats a great idea to start your own thread about the football, anyone that makes me aware of a bet i may have otherwise missed is appreciated in my book.

I will be giving winning football bets regularly.

coffism

Bet today is 1pt kerry -2 to beat dublin @ 21/10 (boyles)

The Dubs' defence looks suspect to me and won't stand up under the high ball. Kerry to pull clear in the last fifteen.

x MarK x wrote: »

Im not yet sure of the odds, but im having a bet on Dubs to be winning at half time and for Kerry to beat them. Should be in the 6/1, 7/1 region. My reason, the Dubs have a history of leading at HT in the big games, and then throwing the lead away.

I like your reasoning... nice to see some constructive comments on here.

Like to add 1pt win wake board in 3.30 newton Abbot @ 5/4 (VC)

Looks absolutely thrown in... getting all the allowances and looked like a chaser to me for some time now.

dotsflan

just looking on the paddy power website and i think il stick a few quid on tommy walsh to score over 2.5pts at 4/5. i can see him getting a few points from play and if he sneaks a goal the bets up..:pac:

coffism

sounds very generous... he's got a knack of getting important goals.

Best of luck

yaaaboy

coffism wrote: »

Bet today is 1pt kerry -2 to beat dublin @ 21/10 (boyles)

The Dubs' defence looks suspect to me and won't stand up under the high ball. Kerry to pull clear in the last fifteen.
quote]

You mean the first fifteen!! Good advice for the gaa matches this weekend with your handicaps.. pity about wake board the odds were just too short on him anyway, you should be staying away from those kinda bets

coffism

yaaaboy wrote: »

You mean the first fifteen!! Good advice for the gaa matches this weekend with your handicaps.. pity about wake board the odds were just too short on him anyway, you should be staying away from those kinda bets

yeah i thought 5/4 was okay but sp of 4/6 was way too short...

coffism wrote: »

Bet today is 1pt kerry -2 to beat dublin @ 21/10 (boyles) +2.1pts

The Dubs' defence looks suspect to me and won't stand up under the high ball. Kerry to pull clear in the last fifteen.

Like to add 1pt win wake board in 3.30 newton Abbot @ 5/4 (VC) -1pt

Looks absolutely thrown in... getting all the allowances and looked like a chaser to me for some time now.

Up 5.14 pts overall... Nice little start made, hope it can continue.

mailburner

i fancy legal legacy in the 7.15 at carlisle
current odds 9/4
won going away at donnie last time on good ground
same today, ground and distance
only up 4lbs for that win

coffism

mailburner wrote: »

i fancy legal legacy in the 7.15 at carlisle
current odds 9/4
won going away at donnie last time on good ground
same today, ground and distance
only up 4lbs for that win

tough luck, inheritor ran a good one...

any other fancies this evening or for tomorrow?

mailburner

fraid not
i have a small bet on its a mans world at 8.45
im more hopeful than confident tho

coffism

No tips today i'm afraid...

Just looking into the golf on thursday, Tiger is 9/5 to win and 8/13 for top five finish on betfair... excellent lays i think myself, any thoughts anyone?

Mickelson looks good each way at 20/1 as well.

tiptap

Adam Scott and Ian Poulter...
Adam coming back into form, and Pouler will be wanting to set things straight after his last embarrasing performance, and get geared up for the last major.

jacool

tiptap wrote: »

Adam Scott and Ian Poulter...
Adam coming back into form, and Pouler will be wanting to set things straight after his last embarrasing performance, and get geared up for the last major.

I wonder was Poulter more embarrassed about his get up on day 1 or his golf? Casey is in this one at 40/1 so I might like the e.w. there. However, will have to check course stats first.

soundsham

i was thinking of this event and course this morning and i would have to agree with poulter e.w. without tiger
his home course in woburn u.k. is very similar short and narrow and tree lined while i dont know his record in firestone,and it is not short but all reports are it is hard and fast there so will play short from the tee, i think he should be well pumped for this after his open miss and he does tend to play better on the back end of the year,
also as a personal selecion, small e.w. on stenson as he will be hitting very few drivers here and is working v. hard on his game at present

coffism

I'd be fairly wary of Poulter's form of late i'm afraid...

I always try to find golfers who have done well on the course in the past.. one that really pops out for thursday is davis love - 3rd in 2003, 4th in 2004, 4th in 2006 and 6th in 2007... best price is 99s with betfair.
Stan James are also doing a handicap market where you can get him starting with -10 at 12/1. Mickelson is also interesting @ 12s starting with -6, think it's way overpriced.

Famous45

Tiger is 9/5 to win and 8/13 for top five finish ... excellent lays i think myself

Explain how they are excellent lays?

Tiger has won 6 times out of 8 in the Invitational at Firestone. The other 2 times he has been no worse than tied 4th. He won the Buick without breaking sweat, only wind, last weekend. In the 11 events has has played this year he has won 4 of them and had 5 other top 10 finishes. I fail to see how he is an excellent lay :rolleyes:

Anyone having a bet on Harrington should hold their bets, he walked off the driving range yesterday complaining of a stiff neck.

coffism

Famous45 wrote: »

Explain how they are excellent lays?

Tiger has won 6 times out of 8 in the Invitational at Firestone. The other 2 times he has been no worse than tied 4th. He won the Buick without breaking sweat, only wind, last weekend. In the 11 events has has played this year he has won 4 of them and had 5 other top 10 finishes. I fail to see how he is an excellent lay :rolleyes:

Anyone having a bet on Harrington should hold their bets, he walked off the driving range yesterday complaining of a stiff neck.

Hmmm, true he does have excellent course form but it's his current form that gets me.. 4 wins from 11 tournaments doesn't justify a price of 9/5 in my book. However, we know he plays the course well which means a shorter price could be argued reasonable.

Thanks for the heads up on harry.

Famous45

small e.w. on stenson as he will be hitting very few drivers here

It's a long course, over 7400 yards. Hitting 3 wood off the tee will be a disadvantage. No confidence in his driver but he will need to use it to pass the hazards on the fairway.

is working v. hard on his game at present

Who isn't?

coffism

1pt Expressive 8.05 Kempton @ 2/1 (Ladbrokes)
.5pt each way King Supreme 6.05 Kempton @ 10/1 (Sporting bet)

Was impressed with Expressive's debut at wolverhampton, only being beaten by a good horse in sunshine always. Step up to a mile should suit.

King Supreme has been placed in 17 out of 31 races, oftens finds one or two too many but can go well in this off a competitive mark.

Famous45

King Supreme has been placed in 17 out of 31 races

That's irrelevant on tonights race. He has 1 win from 9 starts, which occured almost 2 years ago and got him a rating of only 63, on the all-weather and only 1 other place to report, which came at Lingfield. He runs off 81 tonight under a jockey who has never rode him in a competitive race before and the last time he ran on the all-weather he ran off a mark of 74 and failed to win that. Since his sole all-weather victory his record at kempton is 9/14, 13/13, 6/10, 5/12, 10/14, and 4th out of 13 on his latest start which I already said was off 74.

Stand Gaurd has 4 wins at the track but won't be good enough to win it.

Mista Rossa has 2 wins and 2 places from 7 starts at the track, has top draw and a excellent apprentice who has 8 wins (although 5 of them came at Lingfield) from 81 starts and 18 other placings on the all-weather this year. 9/1 seems a fair price and that's my only selection of the day today.

Best of luck with your bets.

soundsham

Famous45 wrote: »

It's a long course, over 7400 yards. Hitting 3 wood off the tee will be a disadvantage. No confidence in his driver but he will need to use it to pass the hazards on the fairway.



Who isn't?

most of the top guys will use less drivers here as the course is narrow hard and fast , 7400 yards could play like 7000
its only a selection for a small e.w. so don't be fretting too much, stenson hits his 3 w farther and more accurate than most like t.w......thats all

Famous45

its only a selection so don't be fretting too much

I haven't.

more accurate than most like t.w

I nearly choked on my tea, Tiger Woods is one of the most inaccurate players off the tee.

stenson hits his 3 w farther and more accurate than most

No he doesn't, he used to but not any longer I'm afraid, his distance has dropped 20 yards in the last few years so contrary to what happened before it doesn't happen now.

And what's more, he doesn't have a winning mentality, he lost a fortune via the exploits of Bernard Madoff and his game will never be the same for a very long time.

qc3

Everyone is intitled to their choice in any race.

You have to look at BALNAGORE's second over this track and trip three weeks ago . He was a winner on his previous visit here and clearly likes the surroundings.@ 7/1, he is my choice. The money for the fav would be my only concern.so fingers crossed.;)