IMF

Bob Z

what will happen if(when?) the IMF comes into Ireland? What will they do?

JonathanAnon

Bob Z wrote: »

what will happen if(when?) the IMF comes into Ireland? What will they do?

Well, when the government show in October that they dont have the balls to tackle either social welfare or public sector reform/wages, the IMF will implement everything in the McCarthy report.

RealityCheck

They give you a loan to keep the country going, however it is given with strings attached which means we will be taxed to the hilt and hit with savage expenditure cuts, which will inevitably have to be made anyway.

Sand

If the IMF comes in, the McCarthy report will be only a starting point. The IMF will not care less about Begg and his cronies and what they think. Probably will be best for Ireland in the long run when the IMF comes in and wipes out the harm the public partners have done to Ireland.

K4t

The IMF are a joke but they are the only ones laughing. Tough **** for any country who has to deal with them. I really don't think it will come to that in Ireland.

tlev

I thought Ireland was already a member of the IMF? What do you guys mean if the IMF comes to Ireland?

NewDubliner

Bob Z wrote: »

what will happen if(when?) the IMF comes into Ireland? What will they do?

Full implementation of Bord Snip, dismissal of the Dail, forced sell-off of all public utilities at fire-sale prices...electricity, water, gas roads to Chinese and Russian oligarchs. Massive price increases for utilities and new road tolls. Banks shut down, mortgages foreclosed.

Everyone gets screwed.

Be careful what you wish for.

Bob Z

tlev wrote: »

I thought Ireland was already a member of the IMF? What do you guys mean if the IMF comes to Ireland?

They will handle our debt

Dirk Gently

tlev wrote: »

What do you guys mean if the IMF comes to Ireland?

They mean if the country needs to borrow money from the IMF. It's like going to a dodgy loan shark when no one else will give you money. The loan shark then calls the shots in how the money should be spent as well as re-paid. Basically it means handing over the sovereignty of the state to a loan shark who wont be overly concerned about social spending / health care / labour rights etc. A lot of Irish people seem to like this approach all of a sudden. Careful what you wish for and all that.


In 2007 the IMF said this about Ireland...

"given the Irish economy's strong fundamentals and the authorities' commitment to sound policies,the Directors expected economic growth to remain robust over the medium term". :pac:

Given the history of IMF intervention in other countries I wont be one of the fan boys cheering them on to come in and "sort us out".

Bob Z

clown bag wrote: »

Given the history of IMF intervention in other countries I wont be one of the fan boys cheering them on to come in and "sort us out".

Surely noone actually wants them here? Or do they?

tlev

Do we really have a choice if no one else will lend to us?

EastWallGirl

I have been told by someone who knows someone at the IMF (so yes it is 3rd hand) the first thing they will do is sack 25% of the public service, but it wont be front line staff like nurses, teachers, gardai.

It will be back of house managemenet folk.

My impresion though is they have their own plans and do not necessarily need a report to tell them what to do.

Économiste Monétaire

EastWallGirl wrote: »

I have been told by someone who knows someone at the IMF (so yes it is 3rd hand) the first thing they will do is sack 25% of the public service, but it wont be front line staff like nurses, teachers, gardai.

That person lied to you.

Liam Byrne

NewDubliner wrote: »

dismissal of the Dail

Every cloud, eh ?

NewDubliner

EastWallGirl wrote: »

I have been told by someone who knows someone at the IMF (so yes it is 3rd hand) the first thing they will do is sack 25% of the public service, but it wont be front line staff like nurses, teachers, gardai..

I think it's this kind of 'pay-back' that the cheerleaders for IMF intervention are hoping for. But, what would they do after that? Normal loan- shark practice would be to strip the debtor of valuable assets (e.g. water, roads, electricity & gas network) at recession prices to clear some of the debt and then roll over the balance at higher interest rates, making sure the mark can earn just enough to service the interest but not enough to pay off the capital.

Why keep the nurses on? They don't produce anything. Wouldn't the IMF just privitise the health service and make people pay for health care?

EastWallGirl

I did preface it by saying it was 3rd hand.

The OH's lecturer has a friend that works there.

I cannot see why they would bother lying but then the political, economic and banking establishment have lied to us so why not the IMF?

Anyway do you think they need our little report?

Économiste Monétaire

EastWallGirl wrote: »

I did preface it by saying it was 3rd hand.

The OH's lecturer has a friend that works there.

I cannot see why they would bother lying but then the political, economic and banking establishment have lied to us so why not the IMF?

Anyway do you think they need our little report?

Either you, or someone in the information chain, failed to understand what was said, or one of you is lying. Ask your OH's brother's friend's cat's sister what the conditions are for Mexico and Poland vis-à-vis their recent application for credit extension. The IMF implemented a 25% reduction in PS numbers in these countries, yes?

brianthebard

Bob Z wrote: »

They will handle our debt

More like enforce an austerity programme.

EastWallGirl

brianthebard wrote: »

More like enforce an austerity programme.

That is my thought.

EM - You are correct that I have not studied Poland and Mexico's application. But I would imagine that a voluntary application to the IMF is treated better than those situations where the IMF's hand is forced.

That snippet of converation happened earlier this year, before the An Snip report was published (or I think even announced).

Assuming that the basic premise of the conversation was correct, the IMF has been looking hard at how the money is spent in Ireland and has it's own idea on how to save money.

I would think that it would be better for Ireland to handle their own finances but let's be honest the celtic tiger is looking like a blip on the radar in the history of the economy as opposed to actual economic development. So will those that have the future of Ireland (and our lives) in their hands, are you confident that they will be able to sort this out, because I have to say I am not and perhaps the IMF may end up being the only option - and I think the government want to avoid that is that there is more dirty laundary they are trying to hide.

tlev

I'm sure that the fact that they are impartial to our situation will help us in the long run? By impartial I mean they have no links to unions, don't want to win votes and don't care about cutting the public sector wages if that is what necessary.

Dirk Gently

tlev wrote: »

I'm sure that the fact that they are impartial to our situation will help us in the long run? By impartial I mean they have no links to unions, don't want to win votes and don't care about cutting the public sector wages if that is what necessary.

ideologues are rarely impartial, especially ideologues who can make the rules without opposition.

NewDubliner

tlev wrote: »

I'm sure that the fact that they are impartial to our situation will help us in the long run?.

Help us? Bless your naivity. If their only objective is to get their money back, they won't care if it comes from forcing us to sell public assets at cut-prices, cutting services and raising taxes. If they make us do all three, they get paid quicker.

Sand

On the bright side, if the government is able to get the finger out and impose the required discipline as early as possible no body will need to call the IMF.If the IMF is called in it will be because all other options will have been exhausted. The unions sound like they are going to fight tooth and nail to keep all the benefits of the Celtic Tiger years...they ought to be very careful they dont miscalculate...

I hope they do though. The visit of the IMF will destroy them for the benefit of Ireland.

If you think thats a terrible thing to say, remember what Jack Lynch said to Nixon all those years ago...

“Our big problem, of course, is that our trade unionists have inherited all the bad habits of the British trade union movement. They’re looking for too much for too little work,”

The more things change, the more they stay the same...

NewDubliner

Sand wrote: »

I hope they do though. The visit of the IMF will destroy them for the benefit of Ireland.

But will they stop there?

tlev

NewDubliner wrote: »

Help us? Bless your naivity. If their only objective is to get their money back, they won't care if it comes from forcing us to sell public assets at cut-prices, cutting services and raising taxes. If they make us do all three, they get paid quicker.

I don't mean their aim is to help us, I'm not that naive, I mean more beneficial to regain some semblance of a functioning economy not riddled with debt.

jumpguy

If the IMF come in, it will show the true extent of how fragile our economy was and is. 18 months ago, growth rates of up to 8%, virtually full employment. Whatever amount of months later, country at it's knees, IMF coming in.

Tech3

Has the IMF ever introduced a wealth tax before on any country? As in a tax on savings? I think they wont be afraid to cut public sector numbers along with a rapid decrease on social welfare payments.

Tech3

jumpguy wrote: »

18 months ago, growth rates of up to 8%, virtually full employment.

Atificial employment and growth based on huge debt though.

NewDubliner

tlev wrote: »

I don't mean their aim is to help us, I'm not that naive, I mean more beneficial to regain some semblance of a functioning economy not riddled with debt.

Quickest way to do that is to sell off all national assets. We won't be saddled with debt, but we'll have to buy our water from the Arabs & electricty from the Chinese. The Russians will operate the newly tolled roads.

That's what giving up our sovereignty means.

gurramok

NewDubliner wrote: »

But will they stop there?

No.

Which is why the unions and the PS 'i didn't cause this mess' apologists better cop on that the national interest is above the union interest for everyone, one sector of the economy cannot hold everyone to ransom.

KINGVictor

I personally dont forsee the intervention of the IMF in the nearest future...based on the ff premise:

I believe the contents of the An bord Snip nua recommendations would be implemented by about 65% which would save the exchequer enough money to delay such intervention.

The Government has enough reserves to aviod such eventuality.

I am one of the few optimists that believe we can get out of this mess by 2012 ...It is true that most of the manufacturing coys are leaving the country in droves..but same can't be said about IT/software coys where a lot of expertise/knowlege are required as opposed to just basic skills .The same can be said of some Health/drugs coys that need about 99.999% accuracy in terms of production.Most of these companies cannot make swift decisions/contigencies to relocate...and this is coupled with the fact that they are still profitable even with the present economic constraints.

We have enough time to buy before the IMF...hopefully.

NewDubliner

gurramok wrote: »

Which is why the unions and the PS 'i didn't cause this mess' apologists better cop on that the national interest is above the union interest for everyone, one sector of the economy cannot hold everyone to ransom.

You didn't mention farmers and other rural dwellers whose lifestyles are heavily subsidised by city workers.

Everyone has to pull together, no?

eoinbn

NewDubliner wrote: »

You didn't mention farmers and other rural dwellers whose lifestyles are heavily subsidised by city workers.

Everyone has to pull together, no?

Farming might well benefit from a collapse of the irish economy. The 'Celtic Tiger' did nothing for it. The only farmers that got anything out of it were the ones that sold up, or sold sites.
You were also replying to a post talking about holding the country to randsom- farmers/rural people have no hold over the country unlike public sector workers.

turgon

Whatever about high tax and selling of public assets, I think the worst part of this would be the reputation we would get on the global market.

tlev

As opposed to what it is now ?

gurramok

NewDubliner wrote: »

You didn't mention farmers and other rural dwellers whose lifestyles are heavily subsidised by city workers.

Everyone has to pull together, no?

Do farmers cost the state €20bn+? :rolleyes:

NewDubliner

gurramok wrote: »

Do farmers cost the state €20bn+? :rolleyes:

That's an evasive response.

gurramok

NewDubliner wrote: »

That's an evasive response.

Why, because its the truth?

Any sector whether from agriculture to the bus service that is partially or fully subsidised by the taxpayer cannot hold the country to ransom.

It just so happens that the public sector as a whole costs 20bn+, farmers cost a fraction of that in subsidies. (i am the last person on the planet to defend farmers)

NewDubliner

gurramok wrote: »

It just so happens that the public sector as a whole costs 20bn+, farmers cost a fraction of that in subsidies. (i am the last person on the planet to defend farmers)

Not just farmers, but rural interest groups in general.

For example, let's unwind the decentralisation project?

gurramok

NewDubliner wrote: »

For example, let's unwind the decentralisation project?

Yes, full steam ahead. No point moving people back that have moved already, it will cost money.

Stop the whole thing where there are no savings to be made. If there are savings for moving a dept down from Dublin to Ballybackwater, go ahead. Not many are like this though.

Anyway, wherever efficiencies can be found, implement them.

NewDubliner

gurramok wrote: »

Yes, full steam ahead. No point moving people back that have moved already, it will cost money.

But that's what we'll have to do as part of restructuring the PS. Much easier to redeploy staff as needed if they all live in the one or two cities.

The 'decentralisation' project was conceived as a way of subsidising country lifestyles. Extra staff had to be hired to fill the vacancies in the politically favoured towns. I think BIM was given by the government to Clonakilty? It's to be shut down, according to Bord Snip.

Will Clonakilty accept this for the good of the nation?

gurramok

Yes, they should.

It's like the parish pump politics, everyone wants a 24/7 hospital in their home town despite the lack of a population to support it. Monaghan and Cavan comes to mind, 2 counties with a population of around 55,000 each give or take, yet they are right beside each other and have corresponding hospitals over the border in a stones throw away!!

Another is Donegal. They have Derry just across the border for north Donegal and Enniskillen for south Donegal but yet people who protest against their local hospital cutting back just cannot seem to cop on that there is probably better and cheaper medical care across the border a few miles away.

PS - expecting Donegalfella to counteract this

NewDubliner

gurramok wrote: »

Another is Donegal. They have Derry just across the border for north Donegal and Enniskillen for south Donegal but yet people who protest against their local hospital cutting back just cannot seem to cop on that there is probably better and cheaper medical care across the border a few miles away.

Perhaps we should 'foster out' Donegal to the UK for the duration of the recession?

gurramok

NewDubliner wrote: »

Perhaps we should 'foster out' Donegal to the UK for the duration of the recession?

Brilliant idea, that will save us a good few million

Seriously, there should be some sort of regional co-ordination in the border areas where it benefits both states to have services servicing both, its plain sense.

But, that wouldn't apply to Ennis. Population about 20,000, with a 24/7 hospital but a major city down the road about 20 miles away, whats their excuse to hold the country to ransom?

http://www.breakingnews.ie/archives/2007/0929/ireland/mhmhauaumhau/
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0409/ennis.html