What Happens if No Wins again?

tlev

Don't you guys think the EU might be more than just a bit annoyed at Ireland? I mean to the point where they might just say, alright, bail yourselves out. I mean Ireland prospered in part thanks to the EU membership and to turn their backs on it like this seems a bit hypocritical?

So what do you guys think the ramifications of a 2nd no would mean for Ireland?

d'Oracle

tlev wrote: »

Don't you guys think the EU might be more than just a bit annoyed at Ireland? I mean to the point where they might just say, alright, bail yourselves out. I mean Ireland prospered in part thanks to the EU membership and to turn their backs on it like this seems a bit hypocritical?

So what do you guys think the ramifications of a 2nd no would mean for Ireland?

Gradual collapse of the Irish economy.
By which I mean an actual collapse. Not a recession.

Imposter

d'Oracle wrote: »

Gradual collapse of the Irish economy.
By which I mean an actual collapse. Not a recession.

How exactly?

perception my dear man perception.
If the rest of the EU proceed with mechanisms that we are left out of ,we will be considered the yellow pack member by potential investors.

Some hope then of creating 200,000 jobs to restore the ones that have been lost.They will go elsewhere.
The EU won't be as Fláthulach with the transfers either like they were in the last 10 years so it will be a stand still infrastructure wise for us.

actua11

The economy won't collapse simply on a no vote. Good fundamentals of low corp tax, euro zone, educated work force etc. should keep everything well afloat. It won't be great but still not a total disaster.

Still though, Ireland is a big boy now and shouldn't have to go cap in hand to Europe every time we hit a spot of bother. The E.U has been there for us helping us in many different areas and hopefully will always continue to be but Ireland as a nation needs to mature and start to take responsibility for its own actions.

Macha

actua11 wrote: »

The economy won't collapse simply on a no vote. Good fundamentals of low corp tax, euro zone, educated work force etc. should keep everything well afloat. It won't be great but still not a total disaster.

Well, is our work force really that educated? I think this is a bit of a myth.

Plus, many companies have used Ireland's position in the EU as logic for locating their European headquarters here. If we become part of a 2nd tier within Europe, that motivation may not be so strong.

Although the fact that we are English speakers does offer a lot of benefits.

On the whole, though we are an incredibly expensive place to do business - very uncompetitive wage, property and energy costs.

KerranJast

The word Ireland is tippexed off the Treaty and its re-ratified by each Parliament quickly?

Imposter

Some EU countries aren't part of the euro.
Some (most) EU countries don't allow people from the newer countries freedom to work in their countries (yet).
...

Does that affect any of their standings in Europe much?

turgon

Investor confidence would be given a large dent. People claim we have the Eurozone etc, but these would be put in doubt.

And then saying all this about tax, you do realize that tax is going up? There really is nothing to hide behind.

Lockstep

I'd say us voting against the treaty would send a pretty bad signal to investors.

brianthebard

The czech republic would maybe not ratify it and then the EU would have to start again.

P. Breathnach

brianthebard wrote: »

The czech republic would maybe not ratify it and then the EU would have to start again.

Not quite. Try: The czech republic would maybe not ratify it and then we would have to start again.

d'Oracle

d'Oracle wrote: »

Gradual collapse of the Irish economy.
By which I mean an actual collapse. Not a recession.

what a load of fear mongering bs
can you quantify this? no
did that happen after the french or dutch no's? nope

what may happen after a 2nd no is that they will do what they did before and go about undermining democracy by trying to implement the treaty in another fashion. so much for them respecting the people

prinz

I won't be able to hold my head up in Germany again. I spend a good bit of time there and there are already rumblings of discontent that German monies have gone to build our roundabouts, while parts of the infrastructure in Germany is suffering from lack of funding for improvements and maintenance.

prinz

Deleted User wrote: »

what a load of fear mongering bs
can you quantify this? no
did that happen after the french or dutch no's?

Our economy is built on FDI. The only reason it's still here is that the E.U. is seen as our guarantors. Take that away, even a move in that direction and billions of euro leave this country. That's not scaremongering it's fact. We don't have a domestic economy capable of keeping the country afloat, unlike other EU states.

prinz

prinz wrote: »

I won't be able to hold my head up in Germany again. I spend a good bit of time there and there are already rumblings of discontent that German monies have gone to build our roundabouts, while parts of the infrastructure in Germany is suffering from lack of funding for improvements and maintenance.

I was in Germany for a week last week. Had a great time,talked politics lots and not one German expressed any discontent. In fact a few were quite happy that Lisbon has not been implemented.

prinz

prinz wrote: »

Our economy is built on FDI. The only reason it's still here is that the E.U. is seen as our guarantors. Take that away, even a move in that direction and billions of euro leave this country. That's not scaremongering it's fact. We don't have a domestic economy capable of keeping the country afloat, unlike other EU states.

The only reason its still here....Are you deluded? 3 words: Low corporation tax!
Seriously though this kind of silly scare mongering has got to stop, you are not doing the yes side any favours spouting that rubbish.

WinstonSmith

In the immortal words of Tommy Tiernan, we keep going until we get it right in the eyes of the supreme overlords!

Darragh29

prinz wrote: »

Our economy is built on FDI. The only reason it's still here is that the E.U. is seen as our guarantors. Take that away, even a move in that direction and billions of euro leave this country. That's not scaremongering it's fact. We don't have a domestic economy capable of keeping the country afloat, unlike other EU states.

The same EU hand that is rocking the Irish economic cradle at the moment is also holding the pillow dangerously close to the child in the cot...

As long as the EU keep bailing us out without the necessary reforms, then they are just giving us more rope to hang ourselves with. The EU are now a fundamental part of our problem here, letting us borrow half a billion Euro a month from the ECB, just to keep the lights on in the country, and the government on an extended summer holiday and not a reform or a decision in sight?!?!?!?

If we didn't have the ECB handing us the shovel here that we are using to dig a deeper financial grave for ourselves, we just might HAVE to get our house in order. The ECB is going to turn this tap off eventually, (obviously not this side of Lisbon II), and we are going to have to face the music at some stage... No matter what way the ball bounces, EU or no EU, we are going to have to get our house in order, it would be quicker if we didn't have the ECB lending to us without firm and meaningful preconditions in relation to reform...

Macha

Well, it also had a lot to do with Irish specific issues like tax breaks for developers and a lack of national banking regulation.

Practically the entire world was awash with cheap credit. If this were the only problem, everywhere would be as bad off as we are. But the reality is that a significant number of domestic policies have really shoved us over the edge.

Scofflaw

taconnol wrote: »

Well, it also had a lot to do with Irish specific issues like tax breaks for developers and a lack of national banking regulation.

Practically the entire world was awash with cheap credit. If this were the only problem, everywhere would be as bad off as we are. But the reality is that a significant number of domestic policies have really shoved us over the edge.

Domestic policy more or less geared the entire economy towards the construction sector. If you look at the ads that grace any Fianna Fail publication, an explanation will spring inexorably to mind.

cordially,
Scofflaw

FutureTaoiseach

Deleted User wrote: »

perception my dear man perception.
If the rest of the EU proceed with mechanisms that we are left out of ,we will be considered the yellow pack member by potential investors.

Some hope then of creating 200,000 jobs to restore the ones that have been lost.They will go elsewhere.
The EU won't be as Fláthulach with the transfers either like they were in the last 10 years so it will be a stand still infrastructure wise for us.

The legal position is that no EU treaty can come into force without unanimity. The political-position is that Cowen will probably have to go. There is already a multi-speed Europe with respect to the Euro, the Schengen agreement, and other areas such as Justice and Home Affairs (the UK and Ireland already have a Protocol allowing us since Amsterdam to optin-out on a case-by-case basis - a Protocol the Lisbon II legislation (Paragraph 7(iii) of the 28th Amendment to the Constitution Bill 2009) allow the govt and the Oireachtas to rescind.

The seeds of the Irish recovery are already starting to show green-shoots. For example, April figures show a rise in exports of 5%, while exports are collapsing in other member states like Germany and the UK. Economists such as the ESRI are already downgrading the peak of unemployment at 15% - down from 17-8% until recently. If we vote no, I believe we will be the toast of the European people - notably in France and Holland who voted no to the EU Constitution. The Euro elites in "Old Europe" will initially go ballistic but - with a British General Election likely to bring the Tories to power - will have to accept that Lisbon is dead. Pragmatism will then dictate that relations with the elites - as with Denmark voting no to the euro in 2000 - will eventually return to normal. The near doubling of Spanish unemployment since their yes vote to the EU Constitution in 2005 does not inspire confidence that a voting for Lisbon will bring an economic divident to help us to economic safe-harbour.

bladespin

If 'no' wins we'll still have to get up in the morning, if 'yes ' wins I guess it'll be the same too, I doubt if very much would change.

PopeBuckfastXVI

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

The near doubling of Spanish unemployment since their yes vote to the EU Constitution in 2005 does not inspire confidence that a voting for Lisbon will bring an economic divident to help us to economic safe-harbour.

Still trying to sell that gone off porkie?

Riddle me this, what has happened to the Irish unemployment rate since we voted 'No' to Lisbon?

FutureTaoiseach

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Still trying to sell that gone off porkie?

Riddle me this, what has happened to the Irish unemployment rate since we voted 'No' to Lisbon?

It rose to 11.5% compared to 17% in Spain.

FutureTaoiseach

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

It rose to 11.5% compared to 17% in Spain.

LOL, nuff said!

Dinner

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

It rose to 11.5% compared to 17% in Spain.

So voting no had a detrimental effect to the Irish economy.

At least in your twisted arseways logic it has.

Can you at least admit that. If you are going to carry on touting that bull**** then you should tag that little nugget onto the end of it.

PopeBuckfastXVI

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

It rose to 11.5% compared to 17% in Spain.

So both rose, so there is no provable correlation between a 'yes' or 'no' vote to Lisbon, or the Constitution and the unemployment rate.

So essentially you are continually peddling a logically flawed argument.

FutureTaoiseach

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

So both rose, so there is no provable correlation between a 'yes' or 'no' vote to Lisbon, or the Constitution and the unemployment rate.

So essentially you are continually peddling a logically flawed argument.

The point I'm trying to make is this. I'm not saying that voting yes necessarily led to the collapse of the Spanish economy. But it didn't save it either. Despite the supposed importance of what the politicians call 'our reputation' in Europe, the supposed halo-effect didn't save the Spanish economy. That point has to be made in order to counter the propaganda from the govt and the yes side linking the economy to a yes vote.

PopeBuckfastXVI

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

So both rose, so there is no provable correlation between a 'yes' or 'no' vote to Lisbon, or the Constitution and the unemployment rate.

So essentially you are continually peddling a logically flawed argument.

I'm pretty sure what he is saying is that there is no effect on the Irish economy since the first No.
Not a difficult concept to grasp really since all economies are in the pan irrespective of Yes or No. And btw the French and Dutch No's didnt make a difference to their economies either. But if you have evidence otherwise please share it.

PopeBuckfastXVI

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

The point I'm trying to make is this. I'm not saying that voting yes necessarily led to the collapse of the Spanish economy. But it didn't save it either. That point has to be made in order to counter the propaganda from the govt and the yes side linking the economy to a yes vote.

Yes but the problem with your argument, is that it could still be postulated (incorrectly in my view, based on the referenda in France & Holland) that the unemployment rate in Spain would be worse if they had voted 'No'.

Your argument is inherently logically flawed, and doesn't actually falsify anything.

FutureTaoiseach

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Yes but the problem with your argument, is that it could still be postulated (incorrectly in my view, based on the referenda in France & Holland) that the unemployment rate in Spain would be worse if they had voted 'No'.

Your argument is inherently logically flawed, and doesn't actually falsify anything.

It is simply a statement of fact. Has Spanish unemployment almost doubled since they voted yes? Yes it has. That is merely stating a fact.

marco_polo

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

Spanish unemployment[/URL] since their yes vote to the EU Constitution in 2005 does not inspire confidence that a voting for Lisbon will bring an economic divident to help us to economic safe-harbour.

Ok nobody could possibly type that with a straight face. I am now convinced you are just on a wind up

Presumably your keen mathematical sense would also agree that a rise in umbrella sales causes more road accidents?

Heavy rain causes more road accidents - umbrella sales and road accidents may look correlated, but one is not causing the other.

PopeBuckfastXVI

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

It is simply a statement of fact. Has Spanish unemployment almost doubled since they voted yes? Yes it has. That is merely stating a fact.

It's a statement of fact, which you are attempting to use to falsify a premise it's not capable of falsifying though. Why can't you just admit that and move on?

FutureTaoiseach

marco_polo wrote: »

Ok nobody could possibly type that with a straight face. I am now convinced you are just on a wind up

Presumably your keen mathematical sense would also agree that a rise in umbrella sales causes more road accidents?

Heavy rain causes more road accidents - umbrella sales and road accidents may look correlated, but one is not causing the other.

No. But the Government is using the recession as an argument for voting yes. Two can play at that game. I am not so much arguing that Spanish unemployment doubled because of the yes vote, as I am arguing there is no evidence of an economic-dividend from their having voted yes. And if there is none in Spain, why would there be one if we vote yes in Ireland?

oscarBravo

Enough. FutureTaoiseach is banned for a week for repeatedly bringing the Spanish unemployment red herring into the debate.

marco_polo

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

No. But the Government is using the recession as an argument for voting yes. Two can play at that game. I am not so much arguing that Spanish unemployment doubled because of the yes vote, as I am arguing there is no evidence of an economic-dividend from their having voted yes. And if there is none in Spain, why would there be one if we vote yes in Ireland?

I can't believe I am bothering but, can you give some of the predicted figures from the yes side as to the Economic Benefits expected to accrue from a yes vote to an unimplemented treaty?

bladespin

marco_polo wrote: »

I can't believe I am bothering but, can you give some of the predicted figures from the yes side as to the Economic Benefits expected to accrue from a yes vote to an unimplemented treaty?

This should be good...

BlitzKrieg

bladespin wrote: »

This should be good...

or not

FutureTaoiseach is banned for a week for repeatedly bringing the Spanish unemployment red herring into the debate

oscarBravo

oscarBravo wrote: »

Enough. FutureTaoiseach is banned for a week for repeatedly bringing the Spanish unemployment red herring into the debate.

Hang on a second he did so because the red herring of employment rate was brought up by Popebuckfast!

Why not ban Popebuckfast?

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

PopeBuckfastXVI

Deleted User wrote: »

Hang on a second he did so because the red herring of employment rate was brought up by Popebuckfast!

Why not ban Popebuckfast?

You may be mistaken, reread the thread

marco_polo

Deleted User wrote: »

Hang on a second he did so because the red herring of employment rate was brought up by Popebuckfast!Why not ban Popebuckfast?

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

Unsurprisingly, Thats not even true.

PopeBuckfastXVI

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

You may be mistaken, reread the thread

Doh,fair enuff, I shall eat my humble pie baked in the oven of shame at gasmark egg on my face!
But seriously though give him a warning 1st.

BlitzKrieg

Deleted User wrote: »

Hang on a second he did so because the red herring of employment rate was brought up by Popebuckfast!

Why not ban Popebuckfast?

uhmm no

futuretaoiseacht wrote:

the near doubling of Spanish unemployment since their yes vote to the EU Constitution in 2005 does not inspire confidence that a voting for Lisbon will bring an economic divident to help us to economic safe-harbour.

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

his points have been disproved numerous times over many many threads, as far as even showing that after the *yes* vote Spanish employment actually went up for 2 years before dropping like everyone else.

PopeBuckfastXVI

No worries, it was buried in towards the end of his post.

FYI discussion of moderation in thread is not allowed as per the forum charter, perhaps you should open a thread in the Help Desk forum if you want to discuss it.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=30

Scrambled egg

As long as we have our bread and milk does it matter?

prinz

Deleted User wrote: »

I was in Germany for a week last week. Had a great time,talked politics lots and not one German expressed any discontent. In fact a few were quite happy that Lisbon has not been implemented.

...........right I bet they were........ I've been in Germany at least once a month for about 3 years now. I've heard plenty of uhappy campers.

Deleted User wrote: »

The only reason its still here....Are you deluded? 3 words: Low corporation tax!
Seriously though this kind of silly scare mongering has got to stop, you are not doing the yes side any favours spouting that rubbish.

And how long do you think corporation tax will stay low given the state the country is in? Multinationals are already pulling out. Look at the news from Harvey Norman today as an example."Harvey Norman Ireland" is operating at a loss. It doesn't matter if our Corporation Tax is low when the economy as a whole is sinking. Investment is flowing out of the country not inwards.

tlev

It just seems to me that it is somewhat ungrateful from a European perspective. EU investment has helped infrastructure a great deal in Ireland and by saying no twice it seems like we want to have our cake and eat it too.

I mean let's say that nothing significant happens after a second no vote. Surely in the future if problems were to arise in Ireland the EU might be more hesitant to assist?

prinz

Darragh29 wrote: »

The same EU hand that is rocking the Irish economic cradle at the moment is also holding the pillow dangerously close to the child in the cot...

As long as the EU keep bailing us out without the necessary reforms, then they are just giving us more rope to hang ourselves with. The EU are now a fundamental part of our problem here, letting us borrow half a billion Euro a month from the ECB, just to keep the lights on in the country, and the government on an extended summer holiday and not a reform or a decision in sight?!?!?!?

Yes but domestic reforms =/= Lisbon Treaty
But I agree all this talk of the EU bailing us out is nonsense. We need to get our own house in order and take a place at the European table as equals not with a begging bowl.

tlev

Yes but we have to sustain ourselves somehow until we can get to that table, if Ireland is unable to borrow it will become unable to function. And that is the fault of overspending by the government not the EU.

oscarBravo

Deleted User wrote: »

Typical, but not surprising since the mods are fervent yes campaigners, shame on you Oscar.

Guess you're going to ban me now because I pointed that out!

Don't discuss moderation in-thread - read the charter before you post again.