www.waynebaileyracing.com

abouttobebanned

www.waynebaileyracing.com

Anyone heard about this?

Fair play to the lad for putting his name/face to it. 5/5 so far with his tips and it looks like he's a young lad from dublin.

Good luck to him! Hope he does well.

Browney7

Yeah heard about this. He writes for the indo on a Saturday aswell. Good luck to him. 5 winners from five aint a bad strike rate.

x PyRo

Browney7 wrote: »

5 winners from five aint a bad strike rate.

No it's an amazing one.

He's a member of this forum and another one i'm on.

Serious at tipping, and definately one to follow. You'll make money off it for certain!.

mike65

Nothing is certain, bar the fact his next bet is more likely to be a looser if only for statistical reasons.

opr

mike65 wrote: »

Nothing is certain, bar the fact his next bet is more likely to be a looser if only for statistical reasons.

What statistical reasons would they be ? Each bet is a single independent event and they have no relationship to each other.

fwiw his lastest bet today was another winner.

Opr

mike65

Even when skill is input into an equation stats will get you in the end, if they didn't Wayne Bailey would never loose and every bookie would go broke and the racing industry wouldn't even exist except at an amature level.

btw I was on his selection so I'm hoping he defies the odds for a while yet.

opr

I have no idea what you mean by "stats will get you in the end" ?

Its actually more likely his next bet will be a winner and not a looser based on his known past results.

Opr

mike65

Two wins and a place today.

Bluetonic

mike65 wrote: »

Two wins and a place today.

Two fav wins and an 8/13f beaten by 9lenghts.

x PyRo

Better than three 10/1 losers.

If you're constantly after the value over the logical choice then you'll be losing non-stop.

Bluetonic

x PyRo wrote: »

If you're constantly after the value over the logical choice then you'll be losing non-stop.

Backing where there is value is the logical choice in many cases.

The majority of professional gamblers will tell you the key is to back value.

mike65

I have been looking at some betting strategies on www.online-betting-guide.co.uk and some are facinating - one fella basicly does halftime/fulltime football bets, the vast majority loose and this guy is betting 100-200 yo-yos a time but every so often he lands a bet at around 20 or 30/1 and pockets 3000. He is well in profit!

Bluetonic

mike65 wrote: »

I have been looking at some betting strategies on www.online-betting-guide.co.uk and some are facinating - one fella basicly does halftime/fulltime football bets, the vast majority loose and this guy is betting 100-200 yo-yos a time but every so often he lands a bet at around 20 or 30/1 and pockets 3000. He is well in profit!

Interesting alright. I know a few people who back certain teams to win x-0, x being >=3. Comes up irregular enough but when it does it also pays well.

Just to make it clear by the way I'm not having a go at WBs tips. Hope the site goes well and like his Betfair blog i'll be following it - he's nearly off to as good a start as Kieren Fallon was :P

mike65

Fallon was so good they had to stop him! (well Michael Stoute did anyway)

No bets today (coward! )

raheny red

Bluetonic wrote: »

Backing where there is value is the logical choice in many cases.

The majority of professional gamblers will tell you the key is to back value.

An 8/13 shot can also be value.

dsmythy

x PyRo wrote: »

Better than three 10/1 losers.

If you're constantly after the value over the logical choice then you'll be losing non-stop.

I'll take three 10/1 losers followed by a 16/1 winner over 4 long odds-on winners. As Raheny Red said anyway any price can be value in the eye of the beholder at least. I guarantee this tipster sees each of his picks as value.

Bluetonic

raheny red wrote: »

An 8/13 shot can also be value.

My comment was purely in relation to post 10 where the poster was implying value and the logical choice were mutually exclusive. It's not in relation to any of WBs choices.

Of course an 8/13 or in fact any priced outcome can also be value, thats really a non point.

k101

~Another tipster,, who will be looking for money soon, if this guy was really good he wouldnt be selling tips. fools and their money soon parted , probably always be a few suckers out there who pay for this kind of stuff. i pithy them really

dsmythy

k101 wrote: »

~Another tipster,, who will be looking for money soon, if this guy was really good he wouldnt be selling tips. fools and their money soon parted , probably always be a few suckers out there who pay for this kind of stuff. i pithy them really

Soon? He's already charging. All we know is the free selections.

Fromvert

I don't think he is charging.

mike65

k101 Wayne Bailey has always struck me as a very straight up fella and I've been reading his posts a lot longer than you I suspect. People have a choice and as stated he throws us a bone every day if he thinks he can see a nice freebie for us.

dsmythy

Fromvert wrote: »

I don't think he is charging.

He will be charging for extra tips outside of the ones he hands out for free, and why not, that's the whole point of the endeaver.

wb

Hi lads, I run the site - and a lot of you will know me as 'Hill 16' over on Let's Bet.

Regarding the value end of things - yes it's true that you have to back horses that are priced more than they should be to win long term, it's as simple as that.

However, in recent years, I've found the Betfair markets are getting very sophisticated and a study I've carried out shows that the market is getting more and more accurate every year. I don't always back short priced horses, but I've moved towards that end of the market for sure lately. In my opinion, an even money horse can be great value if I've priced the horse up at 8/13 for example. I used to have a rule where I’d never back odds-on but it doesn’t make sense if you agree with the value argument as value can be found at all prices. For example, if Kilkenny were even money to beat Wicklow in the hurling, I think we’d all put our house on it!

Some people will be familiar with a thread I ran on another forum where I turned 1K into 30k (it fell back down to 18k later on) in handicaps where I looked for big priced value horses. While it worked, over the years I found it harder and harder to find the biggies and now I mainly concentrate on the shorter prices.

That's just me and each to their own. I know other people who wouldn't back under 2/1 and more power to them if it works for them. Everyone is different and approach betting in a unique way so if anyone can make it pay, fair dues to them.

Regarding the site. No, I don't charge as yet, but I’d be an idiot to say I’d never do it if I thought I could make a few quid out of it. If anything, I’m honest so I won’t pretend I wouldn’t take money if it was offered to me further down the line!

At the end of the day, I spend nearly a full day on racing, so I don't think it's unreasonable if in the future I charge (for the strongest bets only) as long as they are successful. However, I’ll keep the free service as I realise that some people don’t want to/can’t afford to go down that road.

I’ll see how it goes – as mentioned, there are no guarantees in this game and I could well hit the red soon. I hit the ground running, but I’m in this game long enough to know how things can turn around very quickly indeed. So for the moment, it’s all free. If you have a look around the site, you will see that I don’t make any ‘get rich’ claims. Indeed, I’ve never pretend to be a massive stakes punter myself and most of my bets are between €20-50 unless I strongly fancy something.

At the end of the day, I didn’t set this site up to make money from people (If my selections are successful, I’ll be making money anyway). As k101 rightly pointed out, if someone was a brilliant tipster, they wouldn't need to charge for tips. I saw one site where the guy promised you could make 50K per year, yet he still felt the need to charge people twenty quid for his system, which is pretty amusing really. I see what k101 is saying and his point is taken.

I set it up for two reasons. Firstly, I’m trying to work on my web-building skills so I wanted to set up a few websites for some various projects. But mainly, I wanted to challenge myself and put myself under pressure. I work best in that way and I don’t get lazy about my racing when people are watching. My Irish Independent article puts me under positive pressure in that I know a lot of people read it. That can be hard when the bad times come but days like Saturday (five wins from seven bets) make it all worth while. I've had days where I tip no winners and believe me, it plays on my mind when I think about the people who may have read my article and followed my advice. In the same way, I'm under the same pressure when I write for Betfair as there is nowhere to hide when I call it wrong! But overall, that can be a positive thing as it makes sure I work damn hard at my racing.

That’s why I used my real name for the website– if I had of used a made up name, I could easily shut the site down and walk away when it starts going a*se up. It’s not so easy to do that under your own name. Indeed, I’d like to think I’ve built up a good reputation from my Irish Independent and Betfair work etc, and I hope people realise that it’s difficult to put some of that reputation at stake.

One other thing – I don’t promise that it will make a profit in the long term. I simply can’t make such promises. I hope it does of course, but no-one should guarantee that they will make a profit in this ever changing game, even if they’ve done well in the past. In fact, rather than making false claims, I've actually added a disclaimer on the site to say how risky betting can be and not to go to town on the bets. My site is an honest attempt to achieve a profit and move up the Racing Index tables, but I’m around the block long enough to know that most gamblers lose in the long term.
Anyway, thanks for the comments good or bad – feedback is always welcome. I'm always around on Lets Bet and Boards so I've no hiding place anymore!

mike65

Todays selections, shorties in small fields and both could be easily opposed (or ignored) at the prices

2.15 Beverley - Just Five
6.30 Killarney - Red Rock Canyon

Browney7

Fair play to you Wayne and good luck with it. Will follow the free tips with interest and hopefully you might giude us to a few nice price winners in the future:D

glanman

2:15 Just five winner

8 out of 9, keep it up wayne!!

Knobs

keep up good work wayne, enjoying this thread. strike rate is excellent, well done

Dan Chipowski

A good start, but tipping at these sort of prices doesn't leave much room for error.

wb

Dan Chipowski wrote: »

A good start, but tipping at these sort of prices doesn't leave much room for error.

True enough, although the average price has been 2.36 so I'm fairly pleased with how it's gone so far.

Famous45

Fair play to ya for your response above and outlining your objectives.

Personally I have never heard of you before, reason being probably because I would never bet on anyone else's advice, I'm a firm believer that if my own knowledge of a particular bet isn't good enough to warrant a bet then I won't have one.

Fryboy, Simon Holden, was another who offered a free service tipping horses and ended up getting slated left right and centre for his selections. Although I am sure you are aware that this could be the case for you in time, I don't actually see what there is to gain from having such a service, obviously because of the abuse that's directed towards you when the decline begins which it will for a period of time.

From my point (a gamblers) of view, not that I would but if I was to ever pay for a service I would definitely be looking for a service that provided double figure prices. When you or anyone else for that matter talks of value, it's a rare occurence these days that you will find a favourite as good value. It's very easy to say I believe a horse is 8/13 when it's evens with a firm, most horse racing odds compilers with the big firms aren't idiots, they put the same effort as you do, if they thought it should be 8/13 then it would be! Bigger price horses tend to vary greatly between firms and on the exchanges and in my opinion thats where the value lies with regards to horse racing anyway.

I didn't post this to sound harsh cause it's far from that, I admire anyone who puts their head forward for shooting and I am sure if you continue to put the work in then things could prosper for you, but don't try and have a single track mind where you think one thing but say the opposite, for instance with the Kilkenny - Wicklow comment, we all know of Kilkenny's dominance, and obviously in recent years Kilkenny would be nowhere near evens to beat Wicklow so that is not a great example to show where the value lies. And following on from that comment,

I think we’d all put our house on it!

it's bad to advise someone to put all their eggs in one basket!!

Good luck

wb

My point about Kilkenny was using an extreme example and not meant to be takes seriously. But some good points are made.

Look lads, I don't think I'm the next JP McManus - racing is my hobby and I'm just setting myself a challenge to get up the Racing Index tables.

I'm not telling anyone to put their house on these or anything!

My site was picked up on by the OP and I've posted here and there about it myself, but I'm not trying to be the next pricewise! I know as much as anyone that most people lose long term and while I've hit the ground running, a bad run could easily wipe out the profit.

jaffa20

Good luck with it WB.

Famous45

Look lads, I don't think I'm the next JP McManus

Maybe you should, ambition is everything!

I wish you well buddy.

mike65

Might as well keep this going

3.50 Lingfield (AW) - Piccadilly Filly 5/1

8.10 Worcester - Rhinestone Ruby 7/4

20 Times 20 Times

mike65 wrote: »

Might as well keep this going

3.50 Lingfield (AW) - Piccadilly Filly 5/1

8.10 Worcester - Rhinestone Ruby 7/4

did a E/w double myself , Rhinestone price already cut i see.

aya14

Fair play wb its never easy knowing people are hanging on your word, remember you owe no one anything when you call it wrong.
Its inevitable you will get it wrong from time to time(even Sir Alex does:))

Good luck with your endeavours, also the site is lookin well.

Ken

wb

How cruel the racing gods can be sometimes! Piccadilly Filly went off at over 8/1 on Betfair, hit the front and traded at 1/100 in running ... and got beat.

That's racing for you!

20 Times 20 Times

wb wrote: »

How cruel the racing gods can be sometimes! Piccadilly Filly went off at over 8/1 on Betfair, hit the front and traded at 1/100 in running ... and got beat.

That's racing for you!

Wayne , will you do me a favour i think my local bookies is playing with me i did a 35 E.W double on the two horse , the SP for the first one was 13/2 what is the returns of that race going on to 11/8 Please.

Thanks

NabyLadistheman

5 lenghts clear with 100 yards left. Great finish there from Puff to beat the selection. Unlucky

wb

Sarge wrote: »

Wayne , will you do me a favour i think my local bookies is playing with me i did a 35 E.W double on the two horse , the SP for the first one was 13/2 what is the returns of that race going on to 11/8 Please.

Thanks

Not 100% sure I understand the question sarge. Did you back the two selections in a €35 each-way double (costing you €70) ?

If so, this often causes confusion. An each way double is essentially:

One win double
One place double

Because the first bet was placed, the win double part of the bet is now gone.

The price for the place was 1.30 (a fifth of the odds of 13/2).

So by my reckoning, you have €35 x 1.30 = €45.50 (plus your stake of €35) going on to the next horse. A total of €80.50.

BUT - it only goes on to the place part of the bet. If the horse comes first later on, it doesn't matter and you'll still get paid out on the place double (as the win double is now gone).

I don't do much e/w betting and I've quickly typed that up so maybe someone can double check it for me.

8-10

I find paddypower's calculator very simple to use

20 Times 20 Times

Thanks Wayne ,

Yeah the bet cost me 70euro , The confusion that I had was that if the horse won i would get paid the price i took at 11/8 , but as you have explained i will only get the place price which is a quater of them odds. Thanks buddy.

superfootyfan

Thanks Wayne, another winner there in the 8.10 with Rhinestone Ruby, nice enough price aswell got it at 11-4, keep it up !

Jimmy Iovine

Cheers for the tip on Rhinestone Ruby there Wayne. Got her at 11/8 but it was still decent. Keep up the good work.

HoPpiE

Thanks for the 8.10 winnner Wayne. Had money e/w on Picadilly Filly so it could have been worse!

mike65

Eagerly awaits todays picks.....:)

20 Times 20 Times

mike65 wrote: »

Eagerly awaits todays picks.....:)

Refresh refresh refresh :-)

mike65

2.00 Cartmel - Lake Wakatipu
2.30 Cartmel - Cortinas
6.40 Epsom - Dubawi Phantom

glanman

mike65 wrote: »

2.00 Cartmel - Lake Wakatipu 5/4
2.30 Cartmel - Cortinas6/4
6.40 Epsom - Dubawi Phantom11/4

Odds on sky

NabyLadistheman

I wonder what Cartmel is like for Favorites?

mike65

29% of favs win at Cartmel that below average and well below Kelso 38%