Further heavy rain and storm risk tonight, 2nd/3rd July (East, Midlands and North)

darkman2

Latest model output shows that tonight looks like it will turn very wet across most of the country from midnight with potentially thundery and very heavy rain bringing the risk of flooding. The battle between the airmasses will be fought for a second time tonight over the Eastern portion of Ireland. Dublin looks most at risk for thundery imports from Wales and flood risk along with the East, Northeast, North and North Midlands. Once again localised high rainfall rates are forcast on the models.







Fax chart for 12pm today shows the fronts in the west which are bringing the isolated thundery rain there. That should die out tonight but the fronts will become active again as they move northeast





Just be aware of this for tomorrows rush hour when some disruption is likely. Thunderstorms and flash flooding are also possible. Give yourself some extra time.

To follow developments on radar and satellite

Met.ie radar

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

UK radar

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Satellite

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

The Southeast will be first to see heavy rain just heading into the early hours.

IMBACKLATER

there is further torrential rain and thuderstorm activity moving through west mayo

Storm 10

Hi darkman2 whats the chances of storms in the West tonight/tomorrow.

just on RTE Radio now very bad flooding in Mayo

darkman2

The showers in Mayo are organised along a trough - this is going to move Eastward over night so those showers will ease through the evening. The same front will effect other parts later. Meanwhile just scattered showers will move into the west - some of these will be heavy tomorrow but nothing like today. Tonight they won't be as vigorous and should be well scattered. We are still in quite humid air and minimum temperatures tonight won't drop below 15 or 16C for many again.

On another point the trough in the west atm represents the real difference in airmass. When it moves away to the Northeast tomorrow the decrease in humidity will be very noticable. This should be the last really uncomfortable night for sleeping which is good news for me and most of us certainly. I have found the nights very uncomfortable.

Just to add I don't think tonight will be as bad as last night in the east. Well, hopefully!

pfk-0p

when you say thundery imports, do you mean more thunderstorms or just thundery rain?

marbar

i guess that means cycling to work is out of hte question


were those floods last night predicted by the weather heads?

darkman2

pfk-0p wrote: »

when you say thundery imports, do you mean more thunderstorms or just thundery rain?

Could be either - impossible to be specific. Like last night, I don't think anyone expected the thunderstorms to last as long as they did. At worst I thought if there were storms they would be sporadic and short lived. Turned out differently. I don't think the charts suggest anything worse then last night. I don't think it will be that bad. But storms are still possible. Just have to wait and see.

The water table is high in the Dublin area now aswell so it would not take too much to see more surface water like this morning.

In the unlikely event that something similar to last night occurs and things get that bad......I heard the word "inconcievable" for a repeat of last night from the met today....I hope for their sake that is not a Michael Fish moment (he of the "it will be bit breezy in the Channel" fame on the storm that devastated Southern England in the late 80's). I can imagine the uproar tomorrow in the media if there was anything like last night tonight.

marbar

darkman2 wrote: »

In the unlikely event that something similar to last night occurs and things get that bad......I heard the word "inconcievable" for a repeat of last night from the met today....I hope for their sake that is not a Michael Fish moment (he of the "it will be bit breezy" fame on the storm that devastated Southern England in the late 80's). I can imagine the uproar tomorrow in the media if there was anything like last night tonight.

this is why i was asking if last night's was predicted

was it?


i now have the john kettly is the weather man song in my head

darkman2

marbar wrote: »

this is why i was asking if last night's was predicted

was it?


i now have the john kettly is the weather man song in my head

Met Eireann only got around to it at 9pm last night but did not, for some reason, extend their warning to the tv forecasts. So basically most that were flooded this morning were not expecting it. They should have mentioned it. Although in fairness the presenter did mention the fact it would rain on the tv forecasts. It was not adequate though IMO. Basically they did not predict the extent of the rainfall and never mentioned thunderstorms at all. Just by looking at the charts yesterday it was pretty obvious there was a flood risk.


I would prefer to let people know if there is a risk. I could be completely wrong. I was wrong last night about the extent of the thunder and lightning. Nothing might happen tonight but I would prefer people in the morning to say "ah you got it wrong" then see people flooded out of their homes and not prepared or spending an age getting to work. Then others would be on here saying to posters if there was flooding - "why did'nt you mention anything?" MT Cranium's forecast was more accurate then mine last night btw. The forecast thread he started is very good.

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

Met Eireann only got around to it at 9pm last night but did not, for some reason, extend their warning to the tv forecasts. So basically most that were flooded this morning were not expecting it. They should have mentioned it. Although in fairness the presenter did mention the fact it would rain on the tv forecasts. It was not adequate though IMO. Basically they did not predict the extent of the rainfall and never mentioned thunderstorms at all. Just by looking at the charts yesterday it was pretty obvious there was a flood risk.


I would prefer to let people know if there is a risk. I could be completely wrong. I was wrong last night about the extent of the thunder and lightning. Nothing might happen tonight but I would prefer people in the morning to say "ah you got it wrong" then see people flooded out of their homes and not prepared or spending an age getting to work. Then others would be on here saying to posters if there was flooding - "why did'nt you mention anything?" MT Cranium's forecast was more accurate then mine last night btw. The forecast thread he started is very good.

If ever I saw a perfect example of patting oneself on ones back, this has to be it. For the record, Met Eireann since 4.00pm yesterday spoke of potentially severe downpours today with the possibility of local flooding. That is what happened, no more, no less. I notice you Darkman, did not mention the storm and flooding risk for the west of Ireland today, which was just as intense as what was experienced in other parts this morning. Nor did I see you predict the intense storms that hit Donegal a couple of weeks ago in which over 50mm fell in just 3 hours. If you insist on continuously self congratulating yourself, please make sure you have reason too. As you also played down the possibility of thunder yesterday in your opening post.

darkman2

I was not in a posistion to contribute to the forum during the day today so I think you being%

Deep Easterly

What you contribute Darkman, is pure imbism. Like I said, you did not predict the storms in the west today, which met eireann did, since yesterday. Why do you feel the need to cut down met eireann at every given opportunity? Is it to make yourself look bigger or something? Met Eireann have not been wrong regarding today, as admitedly you have not. But the difference between professionals and wannabe's is that that they don't home in on ones backyard while ignoring the rest.

Storm 10

Jez Deep Easterly lighten up on darkman2 I think he did a great job yesterday his forecast was spot on, as he says this is a hobby for him and I am sure its the same for all on the board.

I find Met Eireann are very slow to issue warnings especially in Winter when the UK Met Office issue severe weather alerts for storms Met Eireann never seem to do the same. I find them gone very bad of late with forecasts never really sure how the weather is going to pan out even for the next day.

dublinhead

IMBACKLATER wrote: »

there is further torrential rain and thuderstorm activity moving through west mayo

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0702/dublin.html

SpitfireIV

Thunder and Lightening now in Carlow town.

Deep Easterly

Storm 10 wrote: »

Jez Deep Easterly lighten up on darkman2 I think he did a great job yesterday his forecast was spot on, as he says this is a hobby for him and I am sure its the same for all on the board.
.

Yes, he did a "great job". But so did met eireann. There is no reason as far as I can see as to why he is slagging them off once again. His comments are extremely unfair and unjust.

darkman2

They got it wrong - not entirely, they put a warning on their website at 9pm - why was that not put on the tv forecast? Do you not think that is where most get their weather info from? Sorry but it was incompetent. And FYI I am overall happy with Met Eireann. Nobody get's it right all the time. My point is they should have put the warning they belatedly gave on the tv forecasts. I also cannot be here every hour of the day giving forecasts - I would have, and have done many times, started threads on events elsewhere in the country. I don't see any of your prediction here funnily enough but you are prepared to criticise others.

I don't mind criticism btw and don't pat myself on the back either and never have done on this board.


CroppyBoy how many strikes per second? and rain rate if you have it?

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

I don't mind criticism btw and don't pat myself on the back either and never have done on this board.

Indeed.

highdef

Can we get back on topic here please. This bickering is annoying when all I and others want to find out about is the heavy rain and storm risk. Perhaps a separate thread would be more suitable for any bickering relating to Met Eireann's forecasting abilities. It's starting to look like a thread one of the British weather forums....one with "net" and "weather" in the URL!!!

Looks like a possible cell has formed over the Carlow area. Looks still quite dry in the east....for now!

And the south east of England looks like it's about to get a hammering! :eek::eek::eek:

darkman2

highdef wrote: »

Can we get back on topic here please. This bickering is annoying when all I and others want to find out about is the heavy rain and storm risk. Perhaps a separate thread would be more suitable for any bickering relating to Met Eireann's forecasting abilities. It's starting to look like a thread one of the British weather forums....one with "net" and "weather" in the URL!!!

Looks like a possible cell has formed over the Carlow area. Looks still quite dry in the east....for now!

And the south east of England looks like it's about to get a hammering! :eek::eek::eek:

Yeah ive been looking at Southeast England and the Channel on radar. Serious stuff there.

The cell over Carlow is moving just slightly West of a Northerly direction and into Laois. Radar suggests quite intense rainfall. If someone there could give us more info t'would be great.

The trough in the Irish Sea also looks like it is about to become active. Might be some sparks visible from the East coast in the next few hours maybe especially if the cloud breaks.

chris2007

any chance of thunderstorm activity in dublin tonight?

darkman2

There is a chance alright especially later. If not overhead Irish Sea storms should be visible from the coast. Equally there may be no storms. It's just a risk.

SpitfireIV

darkman2 wrote: »

CroppyBoy how many strikes per second? and rain rate if you have it?

Seems to have quitened down a little, about one strike every 4-5 mins or so. Its reaining pretty hard now, I dont know what the rate is but the station is saying there has been 3.6mm the past hour.

Storm 10

Hi darkman 2

Do you think that the large white clouds showing up on this link at the South West of Ireland are Thunder Storms if they are they could hit the West Coast by morning.

http://www.sat24.com/

Lights are flickering here.

Deep Easterly

If the Irish model Hirlam is proved correct, then that thunderstorm over the SE is the initial stages of the cold front becoming invigorated again. Heavy showers or longer periods of heavy rain are possible anywhere east of a line stretching from from Sligo to Wexford. High totals are quite possible once again locally with north Leinster and south Ulster most at risk at this stage. However, with these type of set ups, things can change over a small time so all eyes to the sky.

Edit. Posted in wrong thread earlier.

aidan_dunne

darkman2 wrote: »

The cell over Carlow is moving just slightly West of a Northerly direction and into Laois. Radar suggests quite intense rainfall. If someone there could give us more info t'would be great.

Did somebody call?

No rain here in Portlaoise yet but I have seen four or five flashes off in the Carlow direction since just before 11.30 p.m. and I've heard a couple of distant rumbles so something is definitely brewing south of here. As I said, though, no rain as yet. I'll keep you informed as much as I can....... until all hell breaks loose and I have to plug out everything, that is!

darkman2

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hi darkman 2

Do you think that the large white clouds showing up on this link at the South West of Ireland are Thunder Storms if they are they could hit the West Coast by morning.

http://www.sat24.com/

Judging by the profile of the cluster of clouds on Satellite they are almost certainly T's - and yes they will hit the Southwest tomorrow morning but the models show that it will be in weakened form. Perhaps not thunderstorms by then but you never know. Your right to track them anyway. They are then due to spread up the western half of the country with the days heat sparking them off once more.

Storm 10

Thanks for that darkman2 would love to be in the South of England toninght they are going to get some Storm looking at the clouds in that link.

darkman2

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If the Irish model Hirlam is proved correct, then that thunderstorm over the SE is the initial stages of the cold front becoming invigorated again. Heavy showers or longer periods of heavy rain are possible anywhere east of a line stretching from from Sligo to Wexford. High totals are quite possible once again locally with north Leinster and south Ulster most at risk at this stage. However, with these type of set ups, things can change over a small time so all eyes to the sky.

Edit. Posted in wrong thread earlier.

That is what is progged alright - it's just a case of waiting....patiently. It could spark in the Irish Sea which might be of little use to most of Leinster but East Ulster would have a fun night in that circumstance.

patrickc

id say we had about 5/6 flashes of lightning here in Carlow all over a ten minute period max.

aidan_dunne

Fairly heavy rain just started in Portlaoise now but I haven't seen or heard anything thundery since my last post so that stuff that was coming up from Carlow might have died off by now, from the looks of it, apart from the rain.

DHFrame

aidan_dunne wrote: »

Fairly heavy rain just started in Portlaoise now but I haven't seen or heard anything thundery since my last post so that stuff that was coming up from Carlow might have died off by now, from the looks of it, apart from the rain.

yep, it's pissing down in portlaoise right now. 00:14 3rd jul 09

aidan_dunne

And now it's all but stopped again! So much for the night of epic, end of the world-type thunder and lightning I was expecting! :rolleyes::D Typical of Dublin, they got the good stuff last night. Bloody Dubs, keeping all the really cool stuff to yourselves as usual!

Agent J

Its just opened up here in Maynooth. Pretty heavy but not like last night.

aidan_dunne

I spoke too soon, it's absolutely pelting it down outside now. Real monsoon stuff. No thunder or lightning to go along with it, though.

*edit* And, once again, it's eased off and all but stopped again. Something tells me this is going to be one of those long, weird nights!

aidan_dunne

Just had our first big clap of thunder of the night. This could be a long night, methinks!

Rain has increased in intensity again, too.

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

That is what is progged alright - it's just a case of waiting....patiently. It could spark in the Irish Sea which might be of little use to most of Leinster but East Ulster would have a fun night in that circumstance.

A particularly useful tool regarding the latest UKMO rain and cloud forecasts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/invent/pwsviewer/

Shows nicely the reactivation of the front as it meanders northeastwards. How strong local convections will occur along this line is up for question. Anyone interested should keep a look out however. Could be interesting for some while others escape completely. (here for example)

aidan_dunne

And that's the fun all finished up again in Portlaoise, it seems. An intense cloudburst, one big clap of thunder and now it looks like it's all over. Damn you, weather, don't be such a bloody tease!

Pokes

Absolutely pelting it down here in rosenallis. Heard that clap too aidan , even had my headphones on.

darkman2

It's kicking off to the west of Dublin on radar. I think the North midlands and Northwest may have a very interesting few hours!

People in west Dublin - if they look west may see flashes of lightning in the distance.

Also tentative echoe to the South of Dublin in Wicklow.

Liber8or

Athboy (Meath-Westmeath Border) region just had two bright flashes and tumultuous cracks of thunder around 00:30. Amazing stuff as I haven't heard and seen Thunder and Lightning like that since being in America.

darkman2

Im pretty certain I can hear the thunder to the west but im not sure.

Rougies

darkman2 wrote: »

It's kicking off to the west of Dublin on radar. I think the North midlands and Northwest may have a very interesting few hours!

People in west Dublin - if they look west may see flashes of lightning in the distance.

Also tentative echoe to the South of Dublin in Wicklow.

Yeah, I thought I'd noticed a couple of faint flashes here in SW Dublin (window facing NW). Thought it was eye/brain tricks at the time.

TheGreenGiant

Just got a cloud burst here. Can hear alot of rumbling in the distance but cant see any flashes of lightning :mad:

darkman2

I know I have been criticising Met Eireann but seriously developments now suggest that for the Midlands, North and Northwest and possibly the East later there may be few red faces again in the morning. If just one of the echos to the west of Dub was to hit the city - the water table from last night willl not cope very well. A few hours to go to see if a repeat is avoided.


Spot flooding already looks likely for the North midlands and Northwest as the storms develope.

TheGreenGiant

Indeed, how they got last nights weather so terribly wrong is beyond me. Its as if they were afraid to issue a warning just like they are afraid to say the word "thunder storm" but instead they say thundery shower. The word thunder storm was mentioned though on the weather forecast tonight by Jean Byrne. Maybe they learned something from last night lol :rolleyes:

Thank god for the boards weather forecast service is all I can say

darkman2

I certainly hope so because counties like Donegal, Sligo and Leitrim could get plastered in the early hours after a day of plastering. Think Jean Byrne is always a bit vague IMO.

aidan_dunne

TheGreenGiant wrote: »

Its as if they were afraid to issue a warning just like they are afraid to say the word "thunder storm" but instead they say thundery shower.

That's a very good point and something I've noticed myself for many years. I've also noticed for a long time that Evelyn Cusack never has any problem mentioning the word thunderstorm or, possibly her favourite phrase, "thunderstorm activity". In fact, she seems to almost revel in anticipated thundery weather and loves mentioning it in her forecasts. Perhaps she's one of those people that loves a good thunderstorm and can't wait for one to erupt!

The other forecasters do indeed tend to be much more reserved about forecasting thundery activity, though, and usually tend to stick to the stock phrase of "thundery shower", as you say GreenGiant. Perhaps, unlike Evelyn, they're all scared of thunder and lightning and don't want to tempt fate by forecasting it!

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

I certainly hope so because counties like Donegal, Sligo and Leitrim could get plastered in the early hours after a day of plastering. Think Jean Byrne is always a bit vague IMO.

This front really is an unpredictable feature alright. As you say, northwestern counties as well as the midland most at risk over the next couple of hours.

Here is the latest Hirlam 3 hr rainfall total forecast for the period between 3am and 6am just to get a sense of where this model thinks the highest risk areas are for the wee small hours:




All to play for really. Despite no lightning here, there is occasional flickering of lights, so lightning still happening somewhere.