Lisbon Mk 2 Predictions

ThePlough

In my opinion this treaty has NO chance of getting passed.

I would estimate a 65% NO vote.

Anyone else care to hazard a prediction?

solice

53% will vote yes!

I reckon it will be a poor enough turn out, around 50%.

Voters who are in favour of the treaty but are miffed that we have to vote again will either continue to vote yes or they wont vote, they will not vote no...I hope!

I dont think the No vote will increase much on the last referendum, Libertas got all of their supporters out to vote, the Govt. didnt. Now with Libertas effectively dead in the water, the only real opposition is Sinn Fein...

PopeBuckfastXVI

I predict a lot more FUD between now and the vote.

USE

57% Yes.

I will come back to this thread in late September.

conchubhar1

it will pass (wether that is good bad or indifferent? dunno yet)

libertas dead and debunked

sinn féin - as much as i hate to say it people will vote yes purely because they ask for a no

lostexpectation

no supporter who says it will be passed unfortunatley

Dinner

Hopefully it will pass. But with Libertas severly weakened (if not gone) and most of their lies cleared up it should stand a good chance.

But the question then becomes, what snappy slogans will the no camp put on posters this time around.

My money's on "An Attack on Democracy - vote No to Lisbon II".

Bonus points to anyone who can spot the irony there. :pac:

conchubhar1

it would also be ironic if the yes side say - let your vote be counted

twice - maybe three times if you vote wrong again

humanji

conchubhar1 wrote: »

it would also be ironic if the yes side say - let your vote be counted

twice - maybe three times if you vote wrong again

Well Lisbon hasn't been passed, so I guess the vote was counted.

I'd say it'll be close, but I couldn't hazard a guess as to which way it'll go. I'm assuming it'll be swayed by a mass of people who are voting, not on the treaty itself, but on a slogan they heard from either the yes or no camp.

conchubhar1

unfortunatley that is how a large chunk of people vote - on local and tds aswel as meps and referendums

besides single issue ones like abrtion and the likes - where you will obviously know am i pro life etc etc

force eleven

Unfortunately it will pass - narrowly. The people will be told that the economy depends on it blah blah blah.Forget the bankers and builders and politicians,it was the people who voted no that got us into this mess - that will be the spin....

bill_ashmount

I believe it will pass. I will be voting No.

Ultimately I don't think it matters, the EU is on it's knees. I don't think it will exist in 20 years time.

conchubhar1

now thats delusional to say the least

how would it disband and why, pretty bunny?

bill_ashmount

conchubhar1 wrote: »

now thats delusional to say the least

how would it disband and why, pretty bunny?

It would disband if the people turn against it. It's a personal opinion and that is allowed. I firmly believe that the Dutch, French and Belgium people will turn against Europe. That is if the Belgium state exists into the future. That is not guaranteed either.

Putting "Pretty Bunny" at the end of your sentences is very clever, well done :rolleyes:

conchubhar1

you can have an opinion, but do you honestly believe there wont be an eu in 20 years?

3 countries leaving a 27 state union with a few more planned, not likely to collapse it......

should them 3 even leave, what are you basing that on?

thanks, high five?

murfie

Turnout is going to be low for this, very low I would think. The people who have decided to vote no are voting as they are motivated to do so and will come out to vote. A yes voter, certainly the majority in the country wont be as motivated to vote that day i believe.
This is going to be close, closer than people think.

conchubhar1

how are you gauging that no voters will come out in more numbers than yes voters?

seems like mystic crap to me

PopeBuckfastXVI

conchubhar1 wrote: »

how are you gauging that no voters will come out in more numbers than yes voters?

seems like mystic crap to me

It's also making the assumption that the default position of everyone who stays at home is 'yes'. Talk about an excuse for a third go round if it doesn't pass!

conchubhar1

true dat

we will have to wait and see how it turns out

Pride Fighter

Libertas did not deliver the no vote last time. Small left wing groups like the Socialist party did. With Libertas and their far right rhetoric gone the no vote is likely to increase, I am a person of the left who nearly voted yes as a result of Libertas.

ChocolateSauce

I estimate a pass by a narrower margin than polls predict...something like 52%.

conchubhar1

sadly irish peoples suspicion of sinn féin is and was higher than suspicion of libertas

i can see it going down - but the no voters all having an actual reason(s) beside 15% or so that will always vote no on anything

3DataModem

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Libertas did not deliver the no vote last time. Small left wing groups like the Socialist party did.

RUBBISH!

The voters did, due to dissatisfaction with the government and a very poor information campaign by both sides.

For the socialist party to claim they delivered the no vote is crazy... where are they claiming that?

gizmo555

conchubhar1 wrote: »

how are you gauging that no voters will come out in more numbers than yes voters?

seems like mystic crap to me

It's possible, if polls continue to show a majority in favour of a yes vote, that no supporters will turn out in higher proportion than yes.

In the same way election candidates hate news reports saying they are in a commanding lead - some supporters may not bother to turn out and vote, assuming their people have it in the bag anyway.

spank_inferno

I'm predicting a low-ish turnout about 42%

65% yes, 31% No - with a 4% "why should I vote again" spoiled vote

Pride Fighter

3DataModem wrote: »

RUBBISH!

The voters did, due to dissatisfaction with the government and a very poor information campaign by both sides.

For the socialist party to claim they delivered the no vote is crazy... where are they claiming that?

I never said they did. They are not claiming they delivered the no vote either. They were just one part of the cog that delivered the no vote, independent left people of all persuasions did deliver the no vote, libertas' role is overstated.

murfie

conchubhar1 wrote: »

how are you gauging that no voters will come out in more numbers than yes voters?

seems like mystic crap to me

I didnt say they would, however I did say that it will be much closer than you think. If the polls have the yes vote winning it might have the effect of, "Ah sure its going to pass anyway what does my vote matter" or "im to busy to vote". The no voter is a more activist/against the government vote so i do believe a larger % of the total no voters will vote. No vote may not win but there is the possibility.

solice

Pride Fighter wrote: »

I never said they did. They are not claiming they delivered the no vote either. They were just one part of the cog that delivered the no vote, independent left people of all persuasions did deliver the no vote, libertas' role is overstated.

I would imagine that it was a mix of factors, the amount of money that Libertas spent, the poor govt voting machine and the fact that it was very easy to campaign against it...Vote no otherwise they will increase our tax, drag us into wars, take away our impartial commissioner and kill our unborn babies!

I cant see this not being passed this time around.

is_that_so

Most likely it will be a lowish turnout, around 50%. It will pass, although I do believe it will be passed by something in the order of 60%-40%. On this occasion all the pro-treaty parties will campaign properly for the whole of the campaign and of course Libertas and some of its "claims" have been neutered. So that will probably leave that hard core of 20 odd percent who are anti-EU and a protest vote of unknown size.

conchubhar1

murfie wrote: »

The no voter is a more activist/against the government vote

bull**** - again on the whole if its no its not for the right reasons crap

Tony EH

It'll probably pass this time.

Some people will think that their concerns have been "addressed", they are already being told that their concerns have been "addressed" and they will content themselves that they are being told the truth by the 'Yes' side. Even though there hasn't been a single change made to the Lisbon Treaty.

Others will feel that they will have upset their political masters a bit much and back down on their previous 'No' vote and change it to a 'Yes', or just not vote at all.

The 'Yes' campaign will do well though, to abandon the idea that a 'No' vote would mean that Ireland will no longer in the EU. That angle the last time just made them seem dishonest to many people and they'll need to get a clearer picture out to the public, as to why a 'Yes' vote is good for Ireland and European people as a whole, especially when the people of Europe didn't get a chance to vote on it.

I believe the 'No' side's campaign will be weaker this time around however and they won't reach the same amount of people with their argument. I think they'll need to make a stronger argument if they want the same result though and make sure they do away with the "conscription" & "abortion" rubbish that SOME voters were taking about. That does their point of view no good at all.

Either way, the Irish electorate will still be as uninformed as they were a year ago. That won't change one iota. The majority of 'No' voters I talked to said they voted that way primarily because they didn't fully know what the Lisbon Treaty was about and others said that they simply just did not believe what the 'Yes' campaigners were saying to them. Likewise, when pressed, the majority of 'Yes' voters didn't know what they were voting on either, but did so because party alignment or they didn't want to be in the same camp as Sinn Fein and Libertas etc.

PopeBuckfastXVI

Tony EH wrote: »

Others will feel that they will have upset their political masters a bit much and back down on their previous 'No' vote and change it to a 'Yes', or just not vote at all.

I'd be surprised if even one person changes their vote based on this reasoning.

KINGVictor

conchubhar1 wrote: »

you can have an opinion, but do you honestly believe there wont be an eu in 20 years?

3 countries leaving a 27 state union with a few more planned, not likely to collapse it......

should them 3 even leave, what are you basing that on?

thanks, high five?

I think the question would be ,which country leaves?...for e.g if Lithuania,latvia and Ireland( and in no way do I mean to undermine or understate the importance the afore-mentioned)..it would be a set back but the EU would have the capacity to exist within reason.

The truth is if any of the following countries namely...France,Germany or Uk decide to leave the Union then there can be a conclusion that the Union would be in jeopardy.

tolosenc

Poor turnout, but sense will prevail - with a bit of luck.

High 50s to low 60s for YES

murfie

conchubhar1 wrote: »

bull**** - again on the whole if its no its not for the right reasons crap

Bullcrap yes, but didn't stop people voting for all those lovely reasons before and from what I have seen so far of the yes campaign and the main parties they will need to step up their game. Gilmore on the radio before the weekend was very poor, didn't sound like he had much confidence in what he was talking about.

Scofflaw

KINGVictor wrote: »

I think the question would be ,which country leaves?...for e.g if Lithuania,latvia and Ireland( and in no way do I mean to undermine or understate the importance the afore-mentioned)..it would be a set back but the EU would have the capacity to exist within reason.

The truth is if any of the following countries namely...France,Germany or Uk decide to leave the Union then there can be a conclusion that the Union would be in jeopardy.

If France or Germany left, the entire reason for the EU would be in jeopardy, since the main point of it is to stop Franco-German wars.

cordially,
Scofflaw

bill_ashmount

conchubhar1 wrote: »

you can have an opinion, but do you honestly believe there wont be an eu in 20 years?

3 countries leaving a 27 state union with a few more planned, not likely to collapse it......

should them 3 even leave, what are you basing that on?

thanks, high five?

The best hope would be for the PVV to keep increasing their popularity in the Netherlands and gain power, Turkey to then gain entry into the European Union and then for the PVV to pull the Netherlands out of Europe because of this. I believe this would be a catalyst for the dis-integration of Europe.

Anyway, democracy will ultimately decide.

CoBurN

As a No voter, I'm sick of being belittled for apparently being confused, misinformed or just plain dumb (in so many words) by the press/media. Do they seek to explain away the Dutch and French votes on the SAME Constitution for the same reasons? Did a Monsieur Ganleille sway the opinions of the poor easily duped peoples of these countries just as ours?

I mean what could be wrong with a "United States of Europe", were we too may someday have a GW Bush of our very own.....

But don't worry folks, this is democracy......21st century stylee,

....where Yes means Yes, and No means, eh, try again.......once more......ok honestly this is the last time.......*provided*

oscarBravo

CoBurN wrote: »

I mean what could be wrong with a "United States of Europe", were we too may someday have a GW Bush of our very own.....

I take it you disagree with the idea of a directly-elected president?

Dinner

CoBurN wrote: »

Do they seek to explain away the Dutch and French votes on the SAME Constitution for the same reasons?

Wow, and you claim to not be misinformed. The French and Dutch voted no to the European Constitution, not the Lisbon Treaty. But you already knew that, didn't you. You just deliberately called it a constitution because it suits your argument more.

Let me ask you this, the Lisbon Treaty and the European Constitution share most of the same reforms. Do you think that maybe, just maybe, the parts that were removed from the constitution were the ones that caused most upset to the French and Dutch people?

Mr Ed

Dinner wrote: »

Let me ask you this, the Lisbon Treaty and the European Constitution share most of the same reforms. Do you think that maybe, just maybe, the parts that were removed from the constitution were the ones that caused most upset to the French and Dutch people?

We'll never know as the Lisbon Treaty was never and isn't being put to the people of those nations

Dinner

Mr Ed wrote: »

We'll never know as the Lisbon Treaty was never and isn't being put to the people of those nations

I'd assume that polls were conducted to find out where the problems were.

And 2 years after the constitution was rejected Sarkozy was elected in France and one of his policies was to ratify Lisbon without a referendum, so obviously it wasn't too big a sticking point for the French population.

Tony EH

Dinner wrote: »

Let me ask you this, the Lisbon Treaty and the European Constitution share most of the same reforms. Do you think that maybe, just maybe, the parts that were removed from the constitution were the ones that caused most upset to the French and Dutch people?

There's never been a clear indication of what was removed from the EU Constitution, when it was renamed the Lisbon Treaty and more importantly a vote by the people of Holland and France on the said Treaty was simply bypassed by their political betters, precisely to avoid a potential 'No' vote.

CoBurN

Dinner wrote: »

Wow, and you claim to not be misinformed. The French and Dutch voted no to the European Constitution, not the Lisbon Treaty. But you already knew that, didn't you. You just deliberately called it a constitution because it suits your argument more.

Let me ask you this, the Lisbon Treaty and the European Constitution share most of the same reforms. Do you think that maybe, just maybe, the parts that were removed from the constitution were the ones that caused most upset to the French and Dutch people?

Oh well, sorry. To get technical, are any of us truly informed?

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor and the former French President Giscard d'Estaing are among many European ministers who have confirmed that the `Treaty` is but the Constitution by another name. The only differentials being the dropping from the new document those articles relating to the EU Flag, Anthem and Motto".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-469118/EU-treaty-simply-old-constitution-reborn-says-creator-Giscard-dEstaing.html

(yes it's the mail, but its quotes are just as accurate)

The Treaty was never put back to the French or Dutch, was it?

Dinner

Tony EH wrote: »

There's never been a clear indication of what was removed from the EU Constitution, when it was renamed the Lisbon Treaty and more importantly a vote by the people of Holland and France on the said Treaty was simply bypassed by their political betters, precisely to avoid a potential 'No' vote.

There's a list of some of the changes on the wikipedia article for the Treaty. (And sources are provided most of the entries)

CoBurN wrote: »

The Treaty was never put back to the French or Dutch, was it?

No, as I said earlier, the French knew full well that they would not have a referendum on Lisbon if Sarkozy was elected. In the case of the Dutch, I can't find any information on if it was the policy of the parties that make up the government to ratify without a referendum or not.

conchubhar1

people do noy solely on one issue

sarcozy said he would ratify it yes - but if he was a great leader and had policies i liked i would vote him in...............

Scofflaw

Dinner wrote: »

There's a list of some of the changes on the wikipedia article for the Treaty. (And sources are provided most of the entries)

There's also the Annotated Version, which shows what was changed.

Dinner wrote: »

No, as I said earlier, the French knew full well that they would not have a referendum on Lisbon if Sarkozy was elected. In the case of the Dutch, I can't find any information on if it was the policy of the parties that make up the government to ratify without a referendum or not.

They made the decision not to use referendums in such cases again, because it was effectively unconstitutional. The Dutch Constitution states that the parliament is the supreme body - referendums are supposed to be only indicative, not legally binding. However, the parliament found that in practice it was bound by the referendum result, which contradicted the constitution.

cordially,
Scofflaw

netron

ThePlough wrote: »

In my opinion this treaty has NO chance of getting passed.

I would estimate a 65% NO vote.

Anyone else care to hazard a prediction?

my guess is that is might be slightly higher - probably 70%
and with a high turnout as well.

i say this because of quite staggering local election results.

Have a look at the graphs in these results from Cork and Waterford:

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/local/l0401.html
http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/local/l3002.html

I have been following Irish politics since the 70s, when i was a "wee lad" canvassing for the Workers Party. I am honestly gobsmacked at the sea change. ( as in the vote moving away from traditional FF/FG politics )

I honestly cannot see the Yes vote winning this one. There seems to be a very strong "anti establishment" vote out there - HOWEVER, and this is a big caveat - the Yes vote might do it, purely out of instilling fear.

in a kind of role reversal of the No campaign last time. Doubt and fear could win it for the Yes side.

But , for now, my money is on No winning again.

conchubhar1

it will pass i imagine - fear of the economy worsening will win it

on the move away from ff/fg - fin gael is still the largest party

and ff/fg are essentially the same (fianna gael if you will)

zuroph

112% yes. claims of vote rigging. referendum will not be re-run a third time.

Max Power1

I Fear a win for the yes side. People will be scaremongered into voting yes by the downturn in the economy and co-erced by the "guarantees" which Mr Cowen has "secured" for us (in reality they are less secure than sellotaping a door shut)

For the good of democracy i hope we as a country see sense and vote NO