So, a no confidence vote on tuesday...

hatrickpatrick

What do you reckon? Snap general election or is it going to fail, and just a muscle flexing move by Kenny?

I was quite taken aback by Bryan Dobson on the news earlier, he seemed to suggest that it was just a token gesture when he was interviewing Enda. Can't remember exactly what he said but it rather surprised me from a journalist to make assumptions before posing the question. Enda, however, seemed hopeful that it would actually succeed.

So two questions for the general population (well, the general population of the boards.ie politics forum )

1: Do you think this is going to succeed and unseat the government?
2: Is a change of government a good thing for IReland at this time, or is stability vital for our economic recovery?

I'm on the fence a bit about the second question... While FF's tax rises and spending cuts are hideously unpopular here, the EU has been saying that he's doing the right thing and that they are becoming confident once again in Ireland's ability to manage the crisis until it ends. Will a change of government and the associated instability destroy our credibility and undermine confidence in our country, to the EU and other international stakeholders, or will it make no difference? Much as I dislike the current government I can't help feeling that, like in America, "you don't change president during a war"...

KnifeWRENCH

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

1: Do you think this is going to succeed and unseat the government?
2: Is a change of government a good thing for IReland at this time, or is stability vital for our economic recovery?

1. No, I don't think it will succeed.

2. I would gladly support a change in Government if I thought the alternative would be any better. Alas, I don't approve of Fine Gael or their policies and certainly do not want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.

Mr.Micro

No the vote of no confidence will fail, the slimy Greens will need time to reflect and will cling on to support the crumbling pile, and the whole wipe out of FF/GP at the locals will be classified as a protest vote.

Red Alert

I'm not sure Enda's necessarily the best taoiseach but I'm sure he's better than what we've got. Cowen just doesn't get it - he's not popular and no amount of faux-heavy-hitting talk with make him so.

Dinner

On the off chance that it does does succeed, how long would it take for an election to be held?

Aidric

Knife-WREEENCH wrote: »

1. No, I don't think it will succeed.

2. I would gladly support a change in Government if I thought the alternative would be any better. Alas, I don't approve of Fine Gael or their policies and certainly do not want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.

I'd go along with this. Another person at the helm of Fianna Gael and they could really make hay.
The lansdowne poll for tomorrows sindo posed the question of who would you trust more as future leader, Kenny, Cowen or neither. The majority was for neither. Given that FF is at a historic low this says a lot about Kenny.

is_that_so

Aidric wrote: »

I'd go along with this. Another person at the helm of Fianna Gael and they could really make hay.
The lansdowne poll for tomorrows sindo posed the question of who would you trust more as future leader, Kenny, Cowen or neither. The majority was for neither. Given that FF is at a historic low this says a lot about Kenny.

Indeed. That's about as useful a question as "Do you sleep on the left, the right or neither?" Aside from the disdain the Sindo demonstrates for anything like policies it continues to peddle the misleading notion that our electoral system is presidential.

It would be most disappointing to find that the electorate, when the next GE arrives, will make decisions on whether they think Cowen or Kenny or even Gilmore is a lesser muppet. Then we really will deserve what we get. I would like to think that we are adult enough to evaluate the promises on offer and choose the party/ies that we believe will best help us.

As to the question it probably won't succeed but it sounds good. As has been posted elsewhere the Greens are really the key to the house of cards coming down.

old boy

i posted a while ago, richard bruton as leader and george lee as the number cruncher, it would be hard for any electorate to disagree, to me enda kenny is the equivelant of a cardboard cutout, place the face.

brianthebard

Is it possible to make it a bannable offence for posters to continually say they won't vote for FG if Enda Kenny is leader? kthksbi

turgon

I think the FG backbenchers would be ruffled by a newcomer getting a shadow cabinet place.

gandalf

The motion of no confidence is a master stroke. It will put the Greens in dreadful conundrum. If they do have a total meltdown and lose half their council seats as predicted and seems likely can they really continue to prop up a Government who have diluted and corrupted their ideals and caused splits from some of their founding members. Of course if they do bring the Government down and there is a general election they will be in danger of losing all their sitting TD's.

As for this Kenny is not the right leader talk I have to laugh. He is obviously doing something right to get FG into this position and I think a change of style of leadership would be most welcome. He may not be charismatic but I would prefer safe and boring compared to the two tits that was the previous and is the current Taoiseachs.

jhegarty

turgon wrote: »

I think the FG backbenchers would be ruffled by a newcomer getting a shadow cabinet place.

Give his vote total I think they will be quickly told to stfu....

gandalf wrote: »

If they do have a total meltdown and lose half their council seats

I think it's going to be worse than that. They will be loosing most of their seats.

gandalf

jhegarty wrote: »

I think it's going to be worse than that. They will be loosing most of their seats.

That will be even better if it happens

road_high

I think it is just a stunt to make the Greens squirm for a bit. After the mauling they are getting in the Locals and Europeans it will make them look as if they are voting for more of the same.

Dyr

gandalf wrote: »

As for this Kenny is not the right leader talk I have to laugh. He is obviously doing something right to get FG into this position and I think a change of style of leadership would be most welcome. He may not be charismatic but I would prefer safe and boring compared to the two tits that was the previous and is the current Taoiseachs.

If he was doing thing's right then the govt. would be dead and buried tonight.
I'd say he could become a jim hacker figure, someone with little leadership skills or vision who finds himself in the top job due to circumstances rather than his own ability.

siobhan.murphy

The electorate have delivered a clear message to the government that change is necessary. The Green party and backbenchers have a moral obligation (and possibly a chance to save face) to deliver on this. The vote of no confidence already happened on Friday.

On another note I am getting sick of the Kenny bashing. We are not looking for the best candidate in a celebrity talent show. We are now suffering for our decision to keep a boy's club led by a likeable character (Bertie) in power for 3 terms. It is now time to finally mature as a nation and take a look beyond the facade and elect the best team to get us out of this mess.

nesf

gandalf wrote: »

As for this Kenny is not the right leader talk I have to laugh. He is obviously doing something right to get FG into this position and I think a change of style of leadership would be most welcome. He may not be charismatic but I would prefer safe and boring compared to the two tits that was the previous and is the current Taoiseachs.

Bluntly even the likes of Conor Lenihan could lead FG to victory given the current circumstances. People are primarily defecting from FF and looking for a new home not primarily being drawn away by the leadership of Kenny.

Not that I won't be voting FG in the next election or anything.

siobhan.murphy

nesf wrote: »

Bluntly even the likes of Conor Lenihan could lead FG to victory given the current circumstances. People are primarily defecting from FF and looking for a new home not primarily being drawn away by the leadership of Kenny.

Not that I won't be voting FG in the next election or anything.

Would the drubbing that FF have suffered in the polls and the gain that FG have clearly made not plainly imply that people have decided on the new home?

Dyr

siobhan.murphy wrote: »

On another note I am getting sick of the Kenny bashing. We are not looking for the best candidate in a celebrity talent show.

My observation on Kenny is'nt based on charisma or presentation, its that every time I've heard him speak all he has is bluster and indignation, he does not come across as someone who's up to the job. Neither does that buffoon we have at the moment, but there you go

nesf

siobhan.murphy wrote: »

Would the drubbing that FF have suffered in the polls and the gain that FG have clearly made not plainly imply that people have decided on the new home?

Indeed, I'm querying how much of this is due to hatred of FF rather than liking of FG.

siobhan.murphy

Bambi wrote: »

My observation on Kenny is'nt based on charisma or presentation, its that every time I've heard him speak all he has is bluster and indignation, he does not come across as someone who's up to the job. Neither does that buffoon we have at the moment, but there you go

Yes I can see how you reach that, however you are saying that your opinion is not based on presentation whereas you are saying he does not "come across" as someone who can do the job. Surely that qualifies as presentation. My point is that we should stop scrutinising the vox pops and start looking into the real work being carried out.

KnifeWRENCH

gandalf wrote: »

As for this Kenny is not the right leader talk I have to laugh. He is obviously doing something right to get FG into this position and I think a change of style of leadership would be most welcome. He may not be charismatic but I would prefer safe and boring compared to the two tits that was the previous and is the current Taoiseachs.

I wouldn't entirely go along with that. I suspect that FG are not in this position because of Kenny's leadership but because FF have fcuked up so badly that a lot of their disillusioned supporters have nowhere else to turn. Despite their differences, FG is the closest party ideologically to FF (populist, economically centre-right, moderate/centrist on social issues)

Now I'm sure there are some fans of Kenny out there but all in all his popularity isn't as high as it should be for someone who is a potential Taoiseach.

If/when Kenny does become Taoiseach I will be extremely skeptical because I dislike him and his party, but for the sake of the country I hope he and his Government do a good job.

siobhan.murphy

nesf wrote: »

Indeed, I'm querying how much of this is due to hatred of FF rather than liking of FG.

Hatred- certainly not! I've voted for some FF candidates elections prior to the last general and Friday's locals. I'm not affiliated to any party. I do however vote based on my personal feeling towards a candidate's or party's competence and on that basis I will not vote FF for some time.

gandalf

Here was me thinking the topic was about a no confidence vote but its been derailed into a Anti-Kenny one again. My god you would think he is the one responsible for the quagmire we are in and not FF and their Green stabilisers.

KnifeWRENCH

gandalf wrote: »

Here was me thinking the topic was about a no confidence vote but its been derailed into a Anti-Kenny one again. My god you would think he is the one responsible for the quagmire we are in and not FF and their Green stabilisers.

No one is saying that Kenny is responsible for any of our current problems. Kenny is being discussed because if this no confidence motion were upheld and a general election ensued, there's a large chance he would become our next Taoiseach. Many posters (myself included) have doubts about his suitability for that role. I have nothing personally against the man; he could be a lovely sound guy for all I know.

I will say this for him; tabling this motion of no confidence was probably a good idea, otherwise he may have come under fire for "failing to capitalise on Fine Gael's success" or something along those lines.

paddyland

It makes no difference if from this day forward, Cowen does everything right as per the EU to sort his self made mess. The fact is, it is not worth the price of maintaining a corrupt institution in charge of this state. FF are a cancer, and MUST be cut out of the equation. Otherwise they continue to grow and poison this country.

If Cowen had a 'get-out-of-jail-free' card tomorrow, if all this horror could be magically lifted overnight, he and his abominable party of leeches and charlatans would sell us right back down the river again, just in time for the next general election. They know nothing else. Generations of FF supporters have grown up in that tradition. They need to be annihilated.

Cowen has even said as much. He hopes to have us back to 'rapid growth' as soon as possible. It is FF's version of 'rapid growth' that has us so out of step with the rest of the globe, so wide open to financial ruin and bankruptcy as a nation. They have no forward vision for this country at all. Only the vision of the continuation of the FF trough that they all slop like pigs in.

DeVore

This thread is about the no-confidence vote on Tuesday... please stay on topic!

DeV.

Red Sleeping Beauty

gandalf wrote: »

The motion of no confidence is a master stroke. It will put the Greens in dreadful conundrum. If they do have a total meltdown and lose half their council seats as predicted and seems likely can they really continue to prop up a Government who have diluted and corrupted their ideals and caused splits from some of their founding members. Of course if they do bring the Government down and there is a general election they will be in danger of losing all their sitting TD's.

Are the Greens able to leave govt. or did they have to enter into some sort of legally binding contract with Fianna Fail ?

When Kenny does his speech can the Greens politely stand up and tell Cowen they're cancelling the agreement ?

What does this no confidence thing actually mean ? Is it just a bit of a spiel from Kenny or is there a legal construct in place whereby the govt. must disband if there's a vote ?

BlitzKrieg

If it does happen, it would force Lisbon 2 out as a main issue, unlike Lisbon 1 which was ignored in the last general election (despite being a year later), so it could become a wildcard and I am a bit surprised that they would consider having one before the referendum is out of the way. Sinn Fein and other smaller parties might enjoy some benefit with such an issue as a major topic, while Fine Gael and Labour might suffer from it.

Or do Fine Gael suspect things might start to pick up soonish and that if they dont push it now the government might recover some ground?

Dr. Baltar

I completely agree that this move by Kenny has simply been done to put pressure on the Greens.
They're now faced with a tough decision. Hold onto power and become even more hated by the electorate or vote yes on the motion of no confidence and collect some Brownie Points for helping to bring about the fall of Fianna Fáil.

As for the OP's original questions:

1. I honestly cannot see the motion of no confidence succeeding. One thing all politicians have in common is their will to attain and hold on to power. The greens won't give up their power without a fight.

2. Is change good for Ireland right now? Hell yes it is. We've had enough with these corrupt pigs in government and change would be a really good thing. Will change hurt economic stability? Well, removing corrupt pigs and putting boars in their place might help. ONly time will tell. At the end of the day though, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have too much in common.
That's why I'm voting Labour.

nesf

Alan Rouge wrote: »

Are the Greens able to leave govt. or did they have to enter into some sort of legally binding contract with Fianna Fail ?

They can leave whenever they want.

Alan Rouge wrote: »

When Kenny does his speech can the Greens politely stand up and tell Cowen they're cancelling the agreement ?

Yes they can.

Alan Rouge wrote: »

What does this no confidence thing actually mean ? Is it just a bit of a spiel from Kenny or is there a legal construct in place whereby the govt. must disband if there's a vote ?

If the Government loses a vote of confidence they no longer have control of the Dáil and must disband essentially. I can't remember if it's a legal requirement to do so unfortunately.

hatrickpatrick

I haven't read the whole thread yet but can I just chip in and say:

With regard to the Enda Kenny hate: What he said on the news tonight was the smartest hing anyone's said about it. His opinion polls don't matter. He's just one guy. What matters is that in the time he has been the leader, the party has been climbing and climbing. That's the true indicator of his ability to lead, not the opinion polls based on his personality (which they have to be, since no one can judge his leadership ability until he's been Taoiseach).

bijapos

There will be a vote of no confidence and it will be defeated.

I was in Loughlinstown at the Dun Laoghrie count last night as someone gave me a ticket so I headed down out of curiosity. Greens got no seats, they were honestly in shock, expected a hit but not this. I spoke to some of them who reckon what happens is that they will hand FF an ultimatum on a lot of policies, roll back SOME but not all of the cuts and see what happens. They will definitley now vote in favour of staying in as they want to see the new Planning legislation introduced, which in all honesty is sorely needed, and which would be opposed by elements of FF and FG and some smaller elements of labour. After that who knows?

It was also pointed out to me that in the opinion polls the highest dissatisfaction rating of the government was from Green party supporters. The ball is in their court now anyway. Should be a long summer.

Gael23

Dinner wrote: »

On the off chance that it does does succeed, how long would it take for an election to be held?

30 days

The Mad Hatter

I think if this is made a private vote it could pass. The Greens haven't exactly sounded warm and cuddly towards FF over the last few weeks, and I'd say could tip the scales. I doubt they'd pull out directly, because that'd allow Sinn Féin an easy entry.

If it's public, it will probably fail.

LostinBlanch

Hatter,

It's a Dail vote, they're all held in public.

Our man in Havana

They vote in lobbys outside of public view.

mikedublin

I'd say for anyone who really opposes this current government and wants an election, the best thing to do now is contact your local Green TD's, and remind them that they are there to represent the electorate, and as their consitutient you will be watching how they vote in the confidence motion. and remembering how they vote when it comes to the eventual general election.

Rob!

1. Its Fianna fáil....they will try hold on by any means possible! The only thing that could swing it in favour of the FG/Labour boys is internal disagreement in the greens and of course the independents would also possess some leverage over the whole matter.

2. Being honest, our alternative parties aren't exactly my cup of tea, but that said, i think politics in this country needs a big reshuffle. And besides, fianna fail, despite having a few excellent candidates, are overall completely out of their depth. They really don't possess any vision or the capacity the lead this country forward. They greatest skill is that of question dodging and waffling. People in this country don't trust politicians and i can't blame them. How our Tanaiste still holds her current position i'l never know!

And as for Europe saying that Fianna fail are doing an ok job of getting us through this recession - I'd be willing to bet that most European governments, with the exception of the French and German's, will be lead by completely different parties next year. People are sick of the same old cronyism everywhere and want some change. I'm not saying that alternative parties are any sort of Messiah's, I'm simply suggesting that once every few generations, governments (during easy times) tend to become gradually incompetent and corrupt, kinda like a rotting apple. And theres only so much people will take - A big European political shake-up is just around the corner

Akrasia

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

1: Do you think this is going to succeed and unseat the government?

Are the opposition going to 'pair' with the absent FF tds? (I'm lookin at you bertie)

2: Is a change of government a good thing for IReland at this time, or is stability vital for our economic recovery?

A new mandate is essential for democracy (none of the measures taken by FF have any democratic mandate or featured in any election manifesto)

That said, I don't have much confidence that an 'alternative government' won't just carry on bankrupting the country just as FF have been doing (FG supported the Deposit Guarantee and NAMA, the two biggest mistakes ever made by any Irish government in history)

MikeC101

If FF were to go to the polls in a general election right now, they're fully aware of how badly they would do - bearing in mind that in local elections a lot of people consider the candidates party to be of less significance than the work they've done locally etc.

Far better for them to hang on, and for all those whose seats would be shaky to keep picking up their salary / committee pay / unvouched expenses until 2012 when its possible their ratings will improve, economy will pick up, etc...

For the Greens it might be less clear cut - they might hope to address their drop in support by playing the "watchdog" card - that they pulled out to stop FF from damaging the country further and so on, but it's unlikely that there would be a sudden swing back to them all that quickly, and they must be looking at their local election results and realising that they could be for the chop if a general election was to happen any time soon.

Again, better for them to hang on as long as possible. The electorate have short memories, they believe, and they might be right.

Liam Byrne

LostinBlanch wrote: »

Hatter,

It's a Dail vote, they're all held in public.

I presume what Hatter means is that they're anonymous ?

The chicken-****s that backed Bertie to the hilt and kept mum when FF screwed up are hardly going to publicly state their preference in case the Government survives and they've just shot their "career" in the foot.

It should be 100% anonymous so that - for once - a few TDs might actually stand up and be counted and do the right thing.

Sully

It might be close, but I cant see it going to plan. It just might be the extra pressure added which may later cause the Greens to pull.

LostinBlanch

Bond-007 wrote: »

They vote in lobbys outside of public view.

But isn't there a record of who voted which way?

That's what I meant by public vote rather than actually looking to see who goes which way?

John Player

if the greens pull out can fianna fail try and find other partners or will there have to be an election?

is_that_so

They could try but they are extremely toxic and wouldn't find any takers.

Red Sleeping Beauty

bijapos wrote: »

There will be a vote of no confidence and it will be defeated.

I was in Loughlinstown at the Dun Laoghrie count last night as someone gave me a ticket so I headed down out of curiosity. Greens got no seats, they were honestly in shock, expected a hit but not this. I spoke to some of them who reckon what happens is that they will hand FF an ultimatum on a lot of policies, roll back SOME but not all of the cuts and see what happens. They will definitley now vote in favour of staying in as they want to see the new Planning legislation introduced, which in all honesty is sorely needed, and which would be opposed by elements of FF and FG and some smaller elements of labour. After that who knows?

It was also pointed out to me that in the opinion polls the highest dissatisfaction rating of the government was from Green party supporters. The ball is in their court now anyway. Should be a long summer.

The Green Party vote has always kidna been a sort of anti-establishment vote for a non-corporate style party like the two big Fs.

Gormley and Ryan have been trotting out a nifty little line about how they're in it for the long haul and there will be a revision of the programme for govt. et cetera but if they don't do something by the next General Election their party will go the same way as the PDs.
And that is something they should've known when they shook hands with the devil and proceeded to get into bed with him.