What happens if Ireland goes bankrupt.

bobbiw

With goverment spending way more than their tax income what could happen if they run out of money,

What did they do with all the income they made.

Would europe bail Ireland out after Lisbon.

What logisticly would happen,

seanybiker

america loves us. We will be grand

bobbiw

I dont think so,

But I would like to understand what happens. I think it could take 10 years 20 years but the Goverment would have to tax the **** out of people.

Like in the 80s where there was so high unemployment taxes were very high. Like 60c on the euro.

But come on a Christmas Bonus on the dole for being a failure in life, damn they should have made them clean the streets.

NewDubliner

bobbiw wrote: »

What logisticly would happen,

Dole and state pensions slashed. Schools/universities closed. Mass-layoffs in the public sector. Fire-sale of public utiliies to foreign speculators. Price increases for services. Water charges. All motorways privitised and tolled. All revenue goes to pay off the debt. Parts of South Dublin gated and secured by armed private security companies. Ireland wins the Eurovision again.

ednwireland

NewDubliner wrote: »

Ireland wins the Eurovision again.

is that what it would take, i was wondering

ionix5891

bobbiw wrote: »

Would europe bail Ireland out after Lisbon.

they already send north of 120billion our way, we should keep voting no

bobbiw wrote: »

What logisticly would happen

IMF would step in (or maybe some sort of similar EU institution? ECB?) and strip all meat and fat from the bones of the public sector and the dole

seanybiker wrote: »

america loves us. We will be grand

lol, rubbish! Obama decreed that he wants all the tax money washed thru here back last month...

Small Change

bobbiw wrote: »

Would europe bail Ireland out after Lisbon.
,

Lisbon is largely irrelevant in this scenario, the key factor is membership of the Euro.
The possibility of a eurozone country defaulting on soverign debt would be a nightmare scenario for the Euro and other eurozone economies and I imagine that the ECB would take whatever steps were necessary to prevent this.

newman10

NewDubliner wrote: »

Dole and state pensions slashed. Schools/universities closed. Mass-layoffs in the public sector. Fire-sale of public utiliies to foreign speculators. Price increases for services. Water charges. All motorways privitised and tolled. All revenue goes to pay off the debt. Parts of South Dublin gated and secured by armed private security companies. Ireland wins the Eurovision again.

Think Argentina only we win the World Cup :rolleyes: Willie O Dea as leader of the Junta :eek:

kevteljeur

seanybiker wrote: »

america loves us. We will be grand

That was sarcasm, right? If it's not, then you might have noticed how many US companies have been cutting back their operations here, or moving them to cheaper countries. They love us while we're cheaper. When we stop being cheaper, they love us much less.

And as a state we have not gotten, and never will get, bail-outs from the US.


.

spank_inferno

Ireland wont go bankrupt.

every nation is running a budget defecit at the moment.
Ours is rather high unfortunately.

The government will borrow as they always have done, as all nations have to do.

lisbon treaty? - irrelevent
eurovision? - just as irrelevent.

Our main problem would be the government borrowing to curry favour with the public as opposed to cutting back on anything. The government seems to be betting on the possibility of this recession ending in the next 2-3 years, because if it doesn't, well be in the same situation we are in today, except 10's of billions more in debt.

But I do believe the euro is our saviour in all of this. We have some powerful friends in it and I would hope that all the european naysayers would think twice next time we vote on Lisbon.

What we really need is a government with a backbone.

Small Change

spank_inferno wrote: »

Ireland wont go bankrupt.

every nation is running a budget defecit at the moment.
Ours is rather high unfortunately.

The government will borrow as they always have done, as all nations have to do.

.

Ireland Northern Rock wont go bankrupt.

every nation Bank is running a budget defecit depending on wholesale funding at the moment.
Ours is rather high unfortunately.

The government Bank will borrow as they always have done, as all nations banks have to do.

spank_inferno

explain

TheInquisitor

All 4.5 million of us get on ryanir flights and abandon the country. Banks then reposess our green isle

lukasbasic

spank_inferno wrote: »

Ireland wont go bankrupt.

every nation is running a budget defecit at the moment.
Ours is rather high unfortunately.

The government will borrow as they always have done, as all nations have to do.

lisbon treaty? - irrelevent
eurovision? - just as irrelevent.

I don't think so. Borrow from who? this nations debt is too high.
there is a risk for all nations to go bankrupt - I think Ireland will be one of the first winners:)

jimmmy

NewDubliner wrote: »

Dole and state pensions slashed. Schools/universities closed. Mass-layoffs in the public sector. Fire-sale of public utiliies to foreign speculators. Price increases for services. Water charges. All motorways privitised and tolled. All revenue goes to pay off the debt. Parts of South Dublin gated and secured by armed private security companies.

Some of the above will happen sooner than expected. Why should foreigners continue to lend us billions of euro, when we as a country pay our taoiseach more than the P.M. of the US, UK, or Germany, when the head of our central bank is the highest paid in the world, and all the other excessive govt payouts down, to hundreds of thousands of people.

spank_inferno

Listen, I'm appaled by the level of government debt requirement for 2009 and it will be little better for 2010 also.

But the fact is that the NTMA have been auctioning government bonds at bond sales to raise the required monies and from what I remember on RTE. the demand for Irish debt bonds has been quite good.

I believe the interest we're offering on these bonds is currently 4-5%.
There is the possibility that if it becomes harder to sell these bonds the Gov will have to offer them at a higher return, which in turn costs us more down the line.

So being a young person I am galled at the level of debt the country will be burdened with for years to come. But the nation wont become bankrupt.
(I think the UK will run a £120 billion deficit for this year - to take a comparrison)

ionix5891

spank_inferno wrote: »

Listen, I'm appaled by the level of government debt requirement for 2009 and it will be little better for 2010 also.

But the fact is that the NTMA have been auctioning government bonds at bond sales to raise the required monies and from what I remember on RTE. the demand for Irish debt bonds has been quite good.

I believe the interest we're offering on these bonds is currently 4-5%.
There is the possibility that if it becomes harder to sell these bonds the Gov will have to offer them at a higher return, which in turn costs us more down the line.

So being a young person I am galled at the level of debt the country will be burdened with for years to come. But the nation wont become bankrupt.
(I think the UK will run a £120 billion deficit for this year - to take a comparrison)

uk is a bit larger to in every respect

Small Change

spank_inferno wrote: »

explain

The idea that a country cannot go bankrupt because we have always relied on borrowing in the past and everyone else is borrowing aswell is similar to the logic that would have been applied to banks in recent times.

The lesson from Northern Rock is that historically stable sources of credit can and do dry up in extreme circumstances

kevteljeur

spank_inferno wrote: »

Listen, I'm appaled by the level of government debt requirement for 2009 and it will be little better for 2010 also.

But the fact is that the NTMA have been auctioning government bonds at bond sales to raise the required monies and from what I remember on RTE. the demand for Irish debt bonds has been quite good.

I believe the interest we're offering on these bonds is currently 4-5%.
There is the possibility that if it becomes harder to sell these bonds the Gov will have to offer them at a higher return, which in turn costs us more down the line.

So being a young person I am galled at the level of debt the country will be burdened with for years to come. But the nation wont become bankrupt.
(I think the UK will run a £120 billion deficit for this year - to take a comparrison)

Unfortunately, as a bad a situation as that seems, I have to agree. We'll have very high levels of debt and taxation for a long time, but the country won't become bankrupt. Of course, the situation with our nationalising the bank debts could change that dramatically, and that also affects the selling of bonds internationally; if the Irish state is seen to be using the money raised from bonds to simply buy into more debt, then we're obviously not the brightest, and unlikely to be paying out on those bonds any time soon. Selling bonds will get very much harder and I believe that this is happening already.

That begs the question, if buying out Anglo Irish Bank in order to save a handful of builders and bad (possibly illegal) deals from public scrutiny, or indeed legal action, might threaten the stability of the entire economy? Isn't that practically a crime against the state? I guess that's for another thread, or the conspiracy forums...

We do operate with far smaller amounts of money here though, so it's not a good idea to look at the UK, or France or Germany for comparisons. Our levels of credit or debt are small change for them. On the flipside, our state never has very much money in reserve which is why we inevitably raise taxes while they can afford to try lowering them (or so I believe, and I'm happy to be corrected on that point).


.

kevteljeur

jimmmy wrote: »

Some of the above will happen sooner than expected. Why should foreigners continue to lend us billions of euro, when we as a country pay our taoiseach more than the P.M. of the US, UK, or Germany, when the head of our central bank is the highest paid in the world, and all the other excessive govt payouts down, to hundreds of thousands of people.

It's very true, it's exactly the sort of the thing that happens when the IMF or other hardball players get involved. I'd say it was suggested by the Germans when Cowen went over a few months ago looking for a bail-out from the EU (and Germany in particular). As you'll recall, he came back looking a bit sheepish, and that's when they started working on a budget involving higher taxes and pay-cuts. They still didn't raise the corporate tax rates, and that will come in time, along with cuts to the ridiculous pay rates at the top-end.

Would the opposition implement them if they got in? I guess we'll have to wait and see.



.

P. Breathnach

kevteljeur wrote: »

...Would the opposition implement them if they got in? I guess we'll have to wait and see.

They will; they will have no choice.

It is shameful that they are currently pretending otherwise.

spank_inferno

Small Change wrote: »

The idea that a country cannot go bankrupt because we have always relied on borrowing in the past and everyone else is borrowing aswell is similar to the logic that would have been applied to banks in recent times.

The lesson from Northern Rock is that historically stable sources of credit can and do dry up in extreme circumstances

Your probably right.
But we dont know what stage Ireland is at yet.

If say next month the NTMA are told to raise 3 billion in bonds & no one is buying, well then that becomes a pretty bad situation pretty fast.

At that point we would be looking at getting emergency loans from the IMF.
But I dont know if thats a likelyhood, simply because we dont know how much credit is available internationaly... its all speculation on our part.

Belfast

bobbiw wrote: »

With goverment spending way more than their tax income what could happen if they run out of money,

What Happens when Countries Go Bankrupt?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,588419,00.html

bobbiw wrote: »

What did they do with all the income they made.

it was spent expanding the public service.

bobbiw wrote: »

Would europe bail Ireland out after Lisbon.

NO.

bobbiw wrote: »

What logisticly would happen,

What Happens when Countries Go Bankrupt?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,588419,00.html

jimmmy

spank_inferno wrote: »

Your probably right.
But we dont know what stage Ireland is at yet.

If say next month the NTMA are told to raise 3 billion in bonds & no one is buying, well then that becomes a pretty bad situation pretty fast.

At that point we would be looking at getting emergency loans from the IMF.
But I dont know if thats a likelyhood, simply because we dont know how much credit is available internationaly... its all speculation on our part.

If you were a householder, would you lend money to someone who still paid themsevles ( and other residents who do work around the house ) more than you do , and more than any other household ? Why is our government + their employees still among the higest paid in the world ?

Spudmonkey

What about state organisations like the post office that you might have savings with? I'm just thinking about my few pounds!!

P. Breathnach

jimmmy wrote: »

If you were a householder, would you lend money to someone who still paid themsevles ( and other residents who do work around the house ) more than you do , and more than any other household ? Why is our government + their employees still among the higest paid in the world ?

jimmmy, you are a one-trick pony. It's over-reaching yourself to try performing the same trick in a number of different rings. Take yourself back to http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055573502

bobbiw

The issue I think is that dopes are in goverment.

They mismanaged the boom beyond compare.

Mike Tyson could give them financial advice.

ionix5891

Belfast wrote: »

What Happens when Countries Go Bankrupt?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,588419,00.html

thanks for the article, interesting read

this struck me

A country has reached this final stage (bankruptcy) if, as a result of war or blatant mismanagement, it has gambled away all trust, can no longer service its debt or convince anyone to lend it any money, no matter how high an interest rate it promises to pay.

:eek: check check check and check?

anyways more than likely this would push up the eurozone interest rates hurting all the countries

we should be lucky we dont have the punt as we would have been "mighty" now :rolleyes:

Daithinski

bobbiw wrote: »

I
But come on a Christmas Bonus on the dole for being a failure in life, damn they should have made them clean the streets.

I'm not sure that being on the dole makes you a failure in life.:rolleyes:

I don't see how making people on the dole "clean the streets" for their christmas bonus would be helpful? The government are paying people to do this job, would you suggest these people are sacked?

The biggest failures in this country are Fianna Fail, they are the one that should be on the dole.

irish_bob

Daithinski wrote: »

I'm not sure that being on the dole makes you a failure in life.:rolleyes:

I don't see how making people on the dole "clean the streets" for their christmas bonus would be helpful? The government are paying people to do this job, would you suggest these people are sacked?

The biggest failures in this country are Fianna Fail, they are the one that should be on the dole.

streets are only cleaned by council workers in urban areas , take a trip outside the towns or citys and see the amount of litter dumpled along country roads and behind ditches , only people who pick that trash up are volunteers

Hasschu

If Ireland goes bankrupt it will be because the government is unwilling to follow the advice of the ECB. That advice will be along the lines of increase corporate taxes to at least 20%, introduce real estate taxes on all property, create municipal councils who will set the rates and receive R.E. taxes collected in the municipality. County Councils will set rates and collect R.E. taxes for county services. Education will be devolved to County Councils who will set up elected School Boards which will set tax rates for education (primary/secondary). The County Council will receive 1/3 of education funds from the National Gov't, 1/3 will be collected by the County Council and the other 1/3 (School Board)will also be collected by the County council. Essentially the School Board sets the education tax rate and the Council and National Gov't has to match it. The National Gov't negotiates labour contracts with two teachers unions (Primary/Secondary). Each School Board manages its own schools including the teachers. Because teachers are such a fractious bunch there has to be a Supervisory function at the County Council level to ensure the Job is being done. Health care provided by the state would also be devolved to Hospital Boards (elected and setting tax rates and collecting) in a fashion similar to School Boards. Over a hundred thousand employees would be out the door from the civil service and associated quangoes, shambos and pure plain money wasters. Failure to follow ECB recommendations would lead to the IMF. The IMF would be bad, bad news, gut the civil service and associated organizations. Privatize everything, the IMF will pay the first few months if it is contracted out to US and British companies. It is too depressing, I will stop here.

Front

lukasbasic wrote: »

I don't think so. Borrow from who? this nations debt is too high.
there is a risk for all nations to go bankrupt - I think Ireland will be one of the first winners:)

This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place.

irish_bob

Front wrote: »

This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place.

fianna fail are too populist to do what needs to be done regarding public sector wages , plus thier leader is all belly and no back

the only thing that can deliver the nescesery reforms is a fine gael goverment without labour and fine gael cant win enough swing voters for that to happen while they have a thunderbird at the helm

jimmmy

Front wrote: »

This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place.

Well said.....but will the public service co-operate and accept wages and pensions which are not the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world ?

P. Breathnach

jimmmy wrote: »

Well said.....but will the public service co-operate and accept wages and pensions which are not the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world ?

Surprise, surprise. Our one-trick pony is showing off his trick in yet another ring.

ardmacha

but will the public service co-operate and accept wages and pensions which are not the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world ?

Since almost all of them haven't ever had the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world, then they will probably be happy not to get these now in these straightened times. The rest should be told to wise up.

Spudmonkey

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Surprise, surprise. Our one-trick pony is showing off his trick in yet another ring.

No smoke without fire, the fact that so many people mention it!

P. Breathnach

Spudmonkey wrote: »

No smoke without fire, the fact that so many people mention it!

It's usually jimmmy.

jimmmy

Spudmonkey wrote: »

No smoke without fire, the fact that so many people mention it!

Thank you Spudmonkey.

In relation to someone elses point " This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place." I replied
"Well said.....but will the public service co-operate and accept wages and pensions which are not the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world ? " This question remains unanswered.

jimmmy

ardmacha wrote: »

Since almost all of them haven't ever had the highest known public sector wages and pensions in the world, then they will probably be happy not to get these now in these straightened times. The rest should be told to wise up.

The average public sector wage is € 966 per week, as confirmed siome time ago by our own c.s.o., no less. This is the average taken from a broad range of well over 300,000 people. What other public servants in the world have an average wage exceeding 966 per week ? And what group of retired public servants elsewhere in the world get as big a pension ( a big lump sum plus a pension of half their annual Irish wages when at retirement age ) ?

To get the tread back on topic, I agree with what Front said "This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place."

jmayo

irish_bob wrote: »

streets are only cleaned by council workers in urban areas , take a trip outside the towns or citys and see the amount of litter dumpled along country roads and behind ditches , only people who pick that trash up are volunteers

Actually funny you should mention this since Finagal CO Co are refusing to clean the Beaches in North County Dublin this summer.
Maybe some dole workers could be rpessed ganged into doing ?

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Surprise, surprise. Our one-trick pony is showing off his trick in yet another ring.

So because he highlight how well paid and over staffed our public sector (note I said public sector and not civil service) is, he is a one trick pony.

The head of our Defence Forces is better paid than the head of the British Army :rolleyes:
Our PM is better paid than any other Euro PM or the President of the USA.
The whole thing trickles right down the structure.

As a recipient of a public sector pension I presume you would admit that your pension is pretty goo in comparison with people in the private sector who did (do ??) not get automatic increments to match the people who now currently hold their former positions ?

You have to agree all the quangoes and their well paid boards are a massive drain on public funds.
Then we have the white elephant of the HSE that when created actually did not implement economies of scale as normal when amalgamating
organisations, but instead created more layers of bureaucracy :rolleyes:


I beleive clowen and the boys are hoping that ECB will bail us out soemhow in order to save the euro.
If ECB do have to step in then IMHO they will be just as tough as IMF.

To a degree I would welcome some of the changes that would be forced by an external influence.
And yes these do include kicking the public sector back into shape.
Sadly the useful and necessary workers would be targetted just as much as the unneccessary paper pushers and overpaid politicos, well connected friends, consultants and analysts.
Then we would have envitable sell off of state infrastructure to foreign specualtors and we would end up with even more Eircoms.

Nightwish

jimmmy wrote: »

The average public sector wage is € 966 per week, as confirmed siome time ago by our own c.s.o., no less. This is the average taken from a broad range of well over 300,000 people. What other public servants in the world have an average wage exceeding 966 per week ? And what group of retired public servants elsewhere in the world get as big a pension ( a big lump sum plus a pension of half their annual Irish wages when at retirement age ) ?

To get the tread back on topic, I agree with what Front said "This nations debt is not high, our deficit is. If the govt has the balls to make the Public Sector cuts it needs to and bring the deficit back in line we will be able to borrow what we require to get us throught the next few years while the adjustment takes place."

That figure includes the high salary for TD's along with Consultants, NCHD's, Nurse managers etc. The lower paid staff dont bring home anything near €966 per week. In fact I'd reckon a majority dont bring home that amount.

Spudmonkey

P. Breathnach wrote: »

It's usually jimmmy.

I have heard him voicing his opinions before , but still he is not alone and a lot of his points are valid!

hatrickpatrick

bobbiw wrote: »

But come on a Christmas Bonus on the dole for being a failure in life, damn they should have made them clean the streets.

That's a bit nasty considering that many newcomers on the dole aren't there because they're a failure at life but because their companies (or the banks that finance them) are failures at economic planning, or just plain unlucky. During a recession unemployment is not always a choice. Don't judge people just because you have your own prejudices - your company could go under tomorrow for all you know.

Ah, we may even be thrown out of the Euro, because as a rule, deficit cannot exceed 3% of GDP. And while, politically and for handiness, this would be bad, it'd be economically great. The Euro doesn't make sense from an economic standpoint. Political standpoint yes, economic no.

ionix5891

Caoltan wrote: »

Ah, we may even be thrown out of the Euro, because as a rule, deficit cannot exceed 3% of GDP. And while, politically and for handiness, this would be bad, it'd be economically great. The Euro doesn't make sense from an economic standpoint. Political standpoint yes, economic no.

rubbish, ask the other small country in the atlantic (hint the name starts with an I), who went on a binge and recently declared bankrupt, how they feel about the euro :cool:

ninty9er

My own political bias aside. We're in a much better position that many, and I wouldn't look to the US for anything, considering it's the most likely country in the developed world to default on it's debt. That does however depend on China pulling the plug on them.

Canada is the only country operating a relatively balanced budget...I say relatively because I haven't looked at the figures recently.

I wouldn't worry about it really. It's the government's job, and if you look at Brian Lenihan, he's obviously worrying enough for everyone.

well horse

What happens if Ireland goes bankrupt?

"We'll be eating grandad for christmas dinner son!"

SkepticOne

Caoltan wrote: »

Ah, we may even be thrown out of the Euro, because as a rule, deficit cannot exceed 3% of GDP. And while, politically and for handiness, this would be bad, it'd be economically great. The Euro doesn't make sense from an economic standpoint. Political standpoint yes, economic no.

It is the political aspect of it that may be of help to Ireland at least in the short term. They don't want a country like Ireland's possible defaulting to expose the flaws in the system and so will take the necessary action to prevent it.

eamonnm79

Small Change wrote: »

Lisbon is largely irrelevant in this scenario, the key factor is membership of the Euro.
The possibility of a eurozone country defaulting on soverign debt would be a nightmare scenario for the Euro and other eurozone economies and I imagine that the ECB would take whatever steps were necessary to prevent this.

They already are. They are allowing the ECB to continue to fund our banks who in turn, indirectly purchase the government bonds required to keep us going even though we are spending double what we are taking in.

They do this in the hope that our economy will eventually turn around, but its more hope than belief.