Big Price Drops in Southside Apartments today

leonardjos

Wyckham Point, Dundrum - New Prices: 1 beds from 249k, 2 beds from 339k

The Gallops, Leopardstown - New Prices: 1 beds from 250k, 2 beds from 275k

Rockbrook, South Central, Sandyford - New Prices: 1 beds from 225k, 2 beds from 295k

Belarmine, Stepaside - New Prices: 1 beds from 195k, 2 beds from 270k (limited amount left)

I haven't quoted the peak of the bubble prices, just the new revised prices.

This is quite a co-ordinated large drop in prices for developments in prime locations. It brings apartment prices down to what could be considered a very affordable level and attractive level. I would imagine that this will entice many prospective buyers off the fence, and just might result in a resumption of sales.

But will these new lower prices represent the bottom of the market? Or will new buyers of these fall into negative equity, just like the people who bought in these developments during the peak?

Xiney

Will the market continue to fall? Yes.

Just look at unemployment - it's expected to reach 16% and they're not even sure if that will be the end of it.

ntlbell

no, they represent a small scratching of the surface.

As previously mentioned by Xiney.

Unemployment is accelerating.

All the new levy's will be in place this month etc leaving people with less money, looks like we're going to see more of them in janaury and people are very unsure about their job security.

there is not one single thing pointing to the bottom, much the opposite.

how does 8/9 times the avg ind wage for a 1 bed apartment represent any sort of value?

long long way to go

gurramok

Who will buy a 1bed at those prices?

Most would look at least getting a 2bed for the space alone and those prices are laughable.

You are extremely optimistic leonardjos assuming that these prices will get buyers off the fence.

Theboinkmaster

leonardjos wrote: »

Wyckham Point, Dundrum - 1 beds from 249k, 2 beds from 339k

The Gallops, Leopardstown - 1 beds from 250k, 2 beds froms 275k

Rockbrook, South Central, Sandyford - 1 beds from 225k, 2 beds from 295k

Belarmine, Stepaside - 1 beds from 195k, 2 beds from 270k (limited amount left)

This is quite a co-ordinated large drop in prices for developments in prime locations. It brings apartment prices down to what could be considered a very affordable level and attractive level. I would imagine that this will entice many prospective buyers off the fence, and just might result in a resumption of sales.

But will these new lower prices represent the bottom of the market? Or will new buyers of these fall into negative equity, just like the people who bought in these developments during the peak?

Vested interest or ignorant of basic economics?

leonardjos

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Vested interest or ignorant of basic economics?

I'm a prospective buyer, my only vested interest is to buy at the bottom of the market. I'm not saying that this is the bottom, rather I'm posing the question whether people think it is or not.

I'd also be interested to hear if any posters are going to give any serious thought to buying one of these apartments. I'm sure many people feel that these are the kind of price drops that they've been waiting for.

In any event, i'm pleased to see some real price drops happening.

Xiney

Well, my opinion probably doesn't matter too much since I'm hoping to get out of Ireland soon and wouldn't be looking to buy,

but if I was you better believe I'd be waiting until at least the employment situation had started improving. Getting a mortgage while unemployment is still rising is like throwing an anchor overboard while blindfolded and hoping your ankle's not tangled in the chain.

bugler

Still way overpriced. A couple of hundred grand for a one bed just doesn't stack up. Massive reality check still pending.

Westwood

A quater of a million for a shoebox 1 Bed that you'll never be able to sell on again is laughable.

ntlbell

a problem for a lot of people is looking at the previous asking

WAS 339 NOW 239K GET DOWN THIS WEEKEND ONLY HARVEY NORMAN BLAH BLAH BLAH

The problem is that 339 wasn't realistic in the first place so the previous asking price is irrelevant.

When you can buy a solid(lol) 1 bed apt in a nice enough area at around 2X's the avg ind wage then we can start talking about some value..

so your looking realistically at around 65-75k for a 1bed apt.

and a 3 bed house at around 115-130k or there about's

Dexterm99

It doesn't look like these builders are feeling the pinch yet with those prices and what's with the 'from'? They either are or they are not at that price assuming the size is not hughely different. OP if you are thinking of buying, offer them 2/3rds the value taking into account the potential drop again next year.

I also find it interesting that most are trying to hid the published cost. I had a look on myhome earlier today for new homes in Dublin and 90% of them had "price on application" displayed...

spockety

leonardjos wrote: »

Wyckham Point, Dundrum - 1 beds from 249k, 2 beds from 339k

The Gallops, Leopardstown - 1 beds from 250k, 2 beds froms 275k

Rockbrook, South Central, Sandyford - 1 beds from 225k, 2 beds from 295k

Belarmine, Stepaside - 1 beds from 195k, 2 beds from 270k (limited amount left)

I presume these are the totally shocking peak/bubble/2006 prices?

What are the new prices after the price drops on these developments to bring them to the realistically affordable levels you refer to?

leonardjos

spockety wrote: »

I presume these are the totally shocking peak/bubble/2006 prices?

No you've mis-read the posting. These are the new latest prices. The 'from' is the way that the developers have listed the prices. Meaning that not all apartments on sale are at this price, some are higher.

I didn't quote the peak prices, largely because they are irrelevant.

But I guess it proves a certain point if some people think these are the crazy peak bubble prices

adrem

Prices may well come from current levels but anyone who expects to buy a 1 bed in Stepaside for 60-75k or a 3 bed for 115k will be waiting !

spockety

leonardjos wrote: »

No you've mis-read the posting. These are the new latest prices. The 'from' is the way that the developers have listed the prices. Meaning that not all apartments on sale are at this price, some are higher.

I didn't quote the peak prices, largely because they are irrelevant.

But I guess it proves a certain point if some people think these are the crazy peak bubble prices

Ah I'm sorry, I was being sarcastic in my post. Lowest form of wit and all that, pity there is no 'sarcy' smiley face to let people know.

But yes it gets across my point that those prices are still off the chart mental by any stretch of the imagination. Good luck to them selling them. At least if a load of suckers buy up these 1 and 2 bed apartments in South Dublin it will help pick up the pace of the crash a bit more, because you can be sure if there's a first wave of tools willing to buy at those prices, there is certainly enough supply to ensure there won't be a second wave.

niceirishfella

Xiney wrote: »

Will the market continue to fall? Yes.

Just look at unemployment - it's expected to reach 16% and they're not even sure if that will be the end of it.

.....that and immigrants leaving daily, the largest amount of rental properties available,the lack of loans avaialbler and consumer confidence on the floor, yes, the market will continue to hit the deck - or have a soft landing/advanced price correction! LOL:D:D

astrofool

ntlbell's figures have always been as ridiculous as the prices at the peak of the bubble.

ntlbell

astrofool wrote: »

ntlbell's figures have always been as ridiculous as the prices at the peak of the bubble.

You're contribution is always welcome.

Thanks for taken the time.

ntlbell

adrem wrote: »

Prices may well come from current levels but anyone who expects to buy a 1 bed in Stepaside for 60-75k or a 3 bed for 115k will be waiting !

I don't think I mentioned stepaside at all, did i?

ntlbell

niceirishfella wrote: »

.....that and immigrants leaving daily, the largest amount of rental properties available,the lack of loans avaialbler and consumer confidence on the floor, yes, the market will continue to hit the deck - or have a soft landing/advanced price correction! LOL:D:D

yes but this is all only exclusive to the north side of dublin

the south side IS DIFFERENT.

homme d'affaire

Dexterm99 wrote: »

It doesn't look like these builders are feeling the pinch yet with those prices

Sure why would they? The banks aren't coming down hard on them, all the debts are with NAMA now. The higher prices stay, the closer they (NAMA) get to being paid their €90 billion debt.

SoupyNorman

Ah Janey, these threads are becoming ten a penny around here and yet poster after poster are asking the same inane 'is this the lowest price we'll pay' question.

Do people not look on DAFT, like I do every day (and many Accom&Prop posters, alot of whom have posted in this particular thread). DAFT isnt some ambiguous complicated website to decipher 'Found 74,175 Matches. Showing matches 1 to 10 below '



Price corrections in property markets happen over a number of years, not weeks/months...the price rises to the peak took ten years, the price fall will be faster but there is still 3 years to go before we see things really and truly hit ze bottom.

thewing

In three years time these apts will be 30% less on average at current rates of decline

If unemployment figures have stabilized then once the 1 bed hits 175k and the 2 bed 230k then buy buy buy....

Dubh Geannain

I think everyone likes to ask the question themselves, even if it has been asked a thousand times before. Just look at the Investments Forum and the amount of threads started on 'Is now a good time to buy bank shares?'

The only advise I'd give is if you have anything between the ears at all, use it. Everyone's going to have an opinion (wheter they have vested interests or not), but at the end of the day the buck stops with you. I didn't listen to the 4 out of 5 people telling me to buy over the last few years and I'm glad now I stuck to my guns.

As for the MANA from heaven proposal, I can only see it having the effect of using an umbrella as a parachute once you've jumped off a cliff. It'll delay the inevitable slightly but not create a soft landing. As has been said by plenty above, prices are not at the bottom yet and won't be for quite some time.

SoupyNorman wrote: »

Ah Janey, these threads are becoming ten a penny around here and yet poster after poster are asking the same inane 'is this the lowest price we'll pay' question.

Ah, but are they at their lowest yet?

SoupyNorman

thewing wrote: »

If unemployment figures have stabilized then once the 1 bed hits 175k and the 2 bed 230k then buy buy buy....

You be my guest and buy a 1bed for CIRCA. €175k, my patience will probably yield me a 4bed semi in a leafy suburb for that in a few years.

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

Ah, but are they at their lowest yet?

But they are not at the lowest price they will pay by waiting.

Dubh Geannain

thewing wrote: »

buy buy buy....

I wouldn't recommend buying more than one house at a time. It was speculators buying up all the property in the first place that made a big contribution to the bubble.

SoupyNorman wrote:

But they are not at the lowest price they will pay by waiting.

Eh?

niceirishfella

homme d'affaire wrote: »

Sure why would they? The banks aren't coming down hard on them, all the debts are with NAMA now. The higher prices stay, the closer they (NAMA) get to being paid their €90 billion debt.

NAMA does'nt exist yet.:rolleyes:
Please get your facts right prior to posting.

thewing

SoupyNorman wrote: »

You be my guest and buy a 1bed for CIRCA. €175k, my patience will probably yield me a 4bed semi in a leafy suburb for that in a few years.

The same way people thought there would be no end to the boom, there will be an end to the bust and it will end long before 4bed semi's hit 175k in leafy suburbs.

As someone who has waited for the 8 years for the worm to turn, i'm not stupid enough to think thing are gonna get cheaper than they were in '97...

prendy

SoupyNorman wrote: »

You be my guest and buy a 1bed for CIRCA. €175k, my patience will probably yield me a 4bed semi in a leafy suburb for that in a few years.




But they are not at the lowest price they will pay by waiting.

lol i suppose it depends how long your "few years" is!:D

i personally think Apts have a long way to fall yet, houses maybe not so much, but a bit nonetheless
I agree that 1 bed apts should not be more than €100k. and that would be in Dublin.

ntlbell

thewing wrote: »

As someone who has waited for the 8 years for the worm to turn, i'm not stupid enough to think thing are gonna get cheaper than they were in '97...

we're at 1998 un employment levels

we could well see 1997 prices + inflation.

what can stop them going past 97 prices?

do you think people only started buying houses in 2001-2007?

SoupyNorman

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

Eh?

I wholly misread your post!

thewing

No but houses started to rocket in value between 2001-2006

I'd be amazed if they went past 97 levels.

Think that prices will continue to drop and then just match inflation after the next 2-3 years.

Hell if they went to '97 levels, happy days....my 8 painful years of renting and sharing would have been worth it!

ntlbell

thewing wrote: »

No but houses started to rocket in value between 2001-2006

I'd be amazed if they went past 97 levels.

Think that prices will continue to drop and then just match inflation after the next 2-3 years.

Hell if they went to '97 levels, happy days....my 8 painful years of renting and sharing would have been worth it!

Ok, so you have no evidence or thought process to why they won't reach 97/98 it would just amaze you.

That's a bit different.

thewing

Yup

Cos you have no evidence they'll go past 97 levels

You can quote all the economics and past historic accounts of what happened in Finland, Japan etc. but this is a recession the likes this state has never seen, so who the hell knows.

As Nell McCafferty says 'Ye know naahhthing'....

The banks didn't see the credit crunch happening

The builders saw no end to the boom

Who can say what the end of the recession will be...?

If you can, tell me what numbers you're picking for the EuroMillions friday night, I could do with the €125m...

ntlbell

thewing wrote: »

Yup

Cos you have no evidence they'll go past 97 levels

You can quote all the economics and past historic accounts of what happened in Finland, Japan etc. but this is a recession the likes this state has never seen, so who the hell knows.

As Nell McCafferty says 'Ye know naahhthing'....

The banks didn't see the credit crunch happening

The builders saw no end to the boom

Who can say what the end of the recession will be...?

If you can, tell me what numbers you're picking for the EuroMillions friday night, I could do with the €125m...

I can't tell you what level's we're going to see but we can all look at what facts we have _today_ those fact's point to keep dropping

there's no evidence to say they won't go to 97 and there's none to say they will

Your saying they won't go to 97.

I'm saying they could.

I've stated many times why I think they will

you won't state why they won't go to 97 just that you would be "suprised"

thewing

Surprise is the wrong word

Fúcking Delighted....

Means I could have a decent standard of living....and a mortgage that I wouldn't be paying into my retirement...

Shur all we can do is wait and see....

Mugatu

ntlbell wrote: »

I can't tell you what level's we're going to see but we can all look at what facts we have _today_ those fact's point to keep dropping

there's no evidence to say they won't go to 97 and there's none to say they will

Your saying they won't go to 97.

I'm saying they could.

I've stated many times why I think they will

you won't state why they won't go to 97 just that you would be "suprised"

If a four bed semi D in a leafy Dublin suburb hits 175k. Then I can buy it, quit my job and easily cover the monthly repymants on a 10 year fixed on while being on the dole. Thats almost as good as winning the lotto.

thewing

I reckon dole will be coming down too.....

ntlbell

Mugatu wrote: »

If a four bed semi D in a leafy Dublin suburb hits 175k. Then I can buy it, quit my job and easily cover the monthly repymants on a 10 year fixed on while being on the dole. Thats almost as good as winning the lotto.

I doubt you'll be covering it on the dole.

That pot is soon to run out

175k at abg 5% mortgage over 10 years = ? about 1700e a month

you be doing well on your 800e

Mugatu

thewing wrote: »

I reckon dole will be coming down too.....

Coming down. It would almost want to not exist if you could pay back a house like that for 500 a month.

It would be a wonderful world if we could all live in a leafy Dublin suburb for that price.

Didn't that guy on the late late say that in south Dublin 87% of all new builds have been apartments. What happens when these aprtment folk want to move onto a house to have a family. Supply and demand perhaps?

Mugatu

ntlbell wrote: »

I doubt you'll be covering it on the dole.

That pot is soon to run out

175k at abg 5% mortgage over 10 years = ? about 1700e a month

you be doing well on your 800e

What I meant was 10 year fixed but a 35 year term. Maybe after ten years I could think about going back to work.

ntlbell

Mugatu wrote: »

Didn't that guy on the late late say that in south Dublin 87% of all new builds have been apartments. What happens when these aprtment folk want to move onto a house to have a family. Supply and demand perhaps?

How are they going to move when they're in 150-200k worth of negative equity

they won't be going anywhere.

ntlbell

Mugatu wrote: »

What I meant was 10 year fixed but a 35 year term. Maybe after ten years I could think about going back to work.

i think the max you can fix at atm is about 5 years, i could well be wrong tho

even if you did fix for 10 years the payment could seriously baloon when you come out of it and every penny you have may not pay the mortgage

sure why don't you just go on the dole now and get them to pay your rent allowance for the rest of your life?

why wait!

Mugatu

ntlbell wrote: »

i think the max you can fix at atm is about 5 years, i could well be wrong tho

even if you did fix for 10 years the payment could seriously baloon when you come out of it and every penny you have may not pay the mortgage

sure why don't you just go on the dole now and get them to pay your rent allowance for the rest of your life?

why wait!

Nope you can get a ten year fixed and are you seriusly trying to guess at what the economic environment is going to be like in 2020?

175k for a four bed semi in a leafy dublin suburb is a joke and I'm guessing that the person who posted that wasn't being serious.

ntlbell

Mugatu wrote: »

Nope you can get a ten year fixed and are you seriusly trying to guess at what the economic environment is going to be like in 2020?

175k for a four bed semi in a leafy dublin suburb is a joke and I'm guessing that the person who posted that wasn't being serious.

nope not trying to guess but you have to stress test it incase

your looking at mortgage repayments of about 750e a month in the first 10 years.

This will leave you 50e a month

for bills, food, clothes etc etc etc

noice.

you would seriously be better of just getting them to pay your rent for life you'd have a house and 200e a week to spend on whatever..

you're not thinking this through very well

Mugatu

ntlbell wrote: »

you're not thinking this through very well

Its not exactly my life plan. I was pointing out how farcical the opinion that a house like that could go for 175k.

But heh, if you want to hang around and wait for it ain't nobody going to stop you.

Keith C

the lower the price, the lower the deposit needed so apts have a massive way to fall. can see a lot more of these going on affordable housing lists.

look at stocking lane "rathfarnham" 2 bed apts are now down to €400/€420 k so 20% deposit (required by most lenders for apts) is €80k :eek:

Now you can get one on affordable houseing for €240k & 3% deposit :cool:
Yes you have clawback but its ":cool:affordable"

IMO these will drop to €240k on open market in a few years anyway.

Westwood

Mugatu wrote: »

If a four bed semi D in a leafy Dublin suburb hits 175k. Then I can buy it, quit my job and easily cover the monthly repymants on a 10 year fixed on while being on the dole. Thats almost as good as winning the lotto.

Why do you think so many people choose to move down the country?
and now cant get back quick enough :rolleyes:
tallaght has leafs on its trees I hear?

SoupyNorman

Mugatu wrote: »

175k for a four bed semi in a leafy dublin suburb is a joke and I'm guessing that the person who posted that wasn't being serious.

Im deadly serious dude.


I have every right to speculate that this will happen as you have that it wont. Back in 1996 if I said that 4bed semis in leafy suburbs would sell for €800k plus in 10 years time you'd of been quite the cynic then too I'd imagine.

The gap between it being cheaper to buy then rent is getting smaller now with the rental market being flooded, I'm happy to sit it out.

You cant definitively say that my prediction is not going to happen.

Mugatu

SoupyNorman wrote: »

Im deadly serious dude.


I have every right to speculate that this will happen as you have that it wont. Back in 1996 if I said that 4bed semis in leafy suburbs would sell for €800k plus in 10 years time you'd of been quite the cynic then too I'd imagine.

The gap between it being cheaper to buy then rent is getting smaller now with the rental market being flooded, I'm happy to sit it out.

You cant definitively say that my prediction is not going to happen.

Your right I can't say that it definitively won't happen. More power to you if it does. As I said a four bed semi in a leafy (So I'm guessing somewhere like D4) for 175k would be almost as good as winning the lotto. I wonder if the odds are similar.;)

francish

Prices are still absolutely crazy, €250k for a 1 bed in Dundrum, purchasing at this price would be absolute madness. There is no one bed apartment in Dublin that is worth more than €150k.