Aintree Grand National 2009 Tips

coffey-16

If anyone has any tips for the Grand National leave them here

mdwexford

Worst thread ive ever seen.

cson

Ah in fairness, a tip for the Grand National?! Are you for real? 40 runners over 4m4f with 30 fences in front of them, its as close as you'll get to a lottery in a grade one contest.

For the record, two of JP's horses - Butlers Cabin 10/1 (fell at Bechers when travelling well for McCoy last year) and King Johns Castle 25/1 (2nd to Comply or Die last year) are two that should go well while Paul Nolan's Dix Villez is one who could possibly run a good race at a big price - 100/1.

mdwexford

The Grand National is a Grade 1..??!!

This place depresses me, a Grade 1 handicap, genuine rofl.

Bluetonic

mdwexford wrote: »

This place depresses me, a Grade 1 handicap, genuine rofl.

Yet you still took the time out to reply?

Morgans

Group 1 handicaps do exist.

mdwexford

Bluetonic wrote: »

Yet you still took the time out to reply?

Meh, i was drunk.

Morgans wrote: »

Group 1 handicaps do exist.

Not over jumps, or in Britain for that matter as far as i know.

Bluetonic

mdwexford wrote: »

Meh, i was drunk.

mike65

Irish Invader - looks like it could be a decent punt at about 20/1

If he runs that is.

wb

Not a tip or anything, but just for some fun...

I posted this on Let's Bet last year, and it predicted the first five home (out of seven horses). The thread even made it onto the BBC website which was a bit of craic.

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?t=2884

To summarise:


1. Price is 20/1 or less
2. Official rating is NOT one of the top ten
3. Irish Bred horses only (Horses with IRE beside their name)
4. Age is 8-10

handsomecake

dargent

jimjackson

I HAVE A GREAT TIP,WRITE ALL THE HORSES DOWN PUT THEM IN A HAT AND GET YER GRAN TO PICK 1 OUT AND HAVE 2 EUROS E/W

jimjackson

TAKEN FROM OLDNAGSRACING.COM

GRAND NATIONAL FACTS & TRENDS

By looking through the Grand National history, its easy to identify the type of horse required to win the Grand National.

We'll use these Grand National trends to help highlight the most likely winners of the Grand National 2009


8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000

Each one of these trends should be considered when looking at the list of this years Grand National runners.

Aimed at The Grand National
Look for a Grand National Runner who has been aimed at the race. Its always difficult to know for sure which runners have been aimed specifically at the race. One way is to look for horses who have run over hurdles in the current year.

The reason trainers run their Grand National hopes over hurdles is to protect their chase handicap mark. Horses have different handicap ratings for whether they are running over hurdles or chases. Should a horse run well in a chase early in the year then their handicap mark will be increased and thus make their chances of winning the grand national more difficult.

Its no surprise then that 5 OF THE LAST 6 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL. So using this trend lets us identify those meeting the above trends which look to be aimed specifically at the grand national and whose trainers think they could be well handicapped and want to protect that handicap mark.


Grand National Trends - Age
Stamina reserves and jumping ability are the two most crucial requirements for a Grand National winner. Younger horses have a poor record in the race which is probably because they tend to have more speed than stamina.

As horses age, like humans, they tend to lose speed and gain stamina. With so many difficult jumps, experience is also helpful which again hinders the younger runners.

In the last 68 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National

Older horses also tend to struggle in the Grand National as a horse needs to be in its prime to survive the tests of the Worlds greatest race.

The peak for a staying chaser is thought to be around 9 - 10 years old. Grand National trends back this up with 10 of the last thirteen winners being aged nine or ten.

In the last 85 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National

Concentrate on horses aged 8-12. The 2008 winner Comply or Die was aged 9 and four of the first five home were 9 or 10.


Grand National Trends - Class
It may seem an obvious statement but every year thousands of pounds are lost on horses who don't have the class to win a Grand National.

In the last 21 Grand Nationals every winner ran off an offical rating of between 136 and 157 with only Bobby Jo and Little Polvier winning from "out of the handicap"

Grand National trends - bad horses simply don't win the race! Grand National trends like this are too strong to be ignored! Concentrate on those rated between 136 and 157 on the day of the race. In 2008 the winner Comply or Die was rated 139.


Grand National Trends - Weight
The weight a horse carries is probably the most important statistical factor when analysing top class staying handicap chases. With the Grand National being the longest and toughest staying handicap chase this is made even more important.

Since the war only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs and two of those were by the incredible Red Rum!

Grand National trends - horses carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs struggle. The Grand National is such a long and tough race that every pound which is carried makes a big difference. Concentrate on runners carrying under 11st 5 lbs The winner last year Comply or Die carried 10stone 9lbs. No horses carrying 11st 5 or more finished in the first 10 home.


Grand National Trends - Stamina
Stamina is a critical ingredient for winning the Grand National. Every year we see very talented 2.5 milers that the public & press get behind, yet they never seem to last home.

Gay Trip (1970) was the last Grand National winner who hadn't previously won over at least three miles!

Grand National tips - if a horse hasn’t previously won over at least 3 miles then you are taking a big chance that its first long distance win will be the Grand National. Concentrate on those with proven stamina The 2008 winner Comply or Die had confirmed his stamina by previously winning chases over three miles or further, including the four mile + Eider chase at Newcastle.


Grand National Trends - Ability to Perform in Top Races
Each of the last ten winners had proven ability in a top race.

Every winner in the last ten years had won a race worth at least £17,000.

Grand National trends - its far safer to concentrate on runners with proven ability. These horses have shown that they are capable of winning and that they can handle the conditions of a competitive race. Concentrate on horses with proven ability in a decent class race Last years winner had proven himself in good class races including winning the £30,000 Eider


Grand National Trends - Jumping Experience
Horses with little jumping experience don’t win Grand Nationals. To jump these large, difficult obstacles, a horse needs to have the confidence behind them which they have gained by jumping plenty of fences before.

Schooling on the training grounds doesn’t make up for real experience at the race course.

Each of the last 10 Grand National winners had run at least ten times over fences before the start on the big day at Aintree.

Grand National tips - this normally eliminates a few novices and those with little experience due to being off the course with injuries.


Grand National Trends - Tiredness/Trained for the Race
A tired and over raced horse can’t be expected to beat 39 other horses in the toughest race on earth. Horses who aren’t at peak fitness will struggle.

The Grand National is run around four weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and many horses will have been trained so that they peak in time for Cheltenham, not Aintree.

This leaves them at a big disadvantage and if they have been in a tough race at the festival, four weeks or so might not be enough time for some of them to recover.

In recent years only Silver Birch (second the Cross Country) and Bindaree (sixth in the William Hill Chase) have gone on to win the Grand National after racing at Cheltenham. Many others have tried and failed.

Grand National tips - favour horses who have been trained specifically for the Grand National over those who have recently run at Cheltenham. 2008 winner Comply or Die did not run at Cheltenham. His last race before the Grand National was the Eider on 23 February giving him over 40 days break before the Grand national.


Grand National Trends - Trainers and Jockeys
Its best to concentrate on the proven ability of the horse rather than the jockey and trainer.

Jockeys can win with their first run in the Grand National whereas some of the best national hunt jockeys have never won the race.

Some trainers have a better history of training staying chasers and particularly Grand National winners than others. In recent years Nigel Twiston Davies has trained two runners to victory, whilst Ginger McCain won his fourth Grand National with Amberleigh House.

Warper

I backed Character Building @ 25-1 a while back and am happy with that though have a slight concern that come Sat week it will be only 23 days since his great win at Cheltenham but he has a savage low weight.

Another horse i will back is Rambling Minster (currently around 14-1) - another horse with a great weight and is a great jumper and hasnt raced in around 6-7 weeks so will be fresh - only concern here is age - the horse is 11 but is in the form of his life.

[nicK]

king johns castle out..

RichieLawlor

[nicK] wrote: »

king johns castle out..

Always was imo

mdwexford

Makes AP's decision a bit easier, Butlers Cabin it is then.

finbarrk

[nicK] wrote: »

king johns castle out..

Damn it, I had him backed at 33's.

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

Makes AP's decision a bit easier, Butlers Cabin it is then.

or maybe one JP has yet to buy;)

trevo

Irish Invader deffo in with a chance but have a look at ted walsh's horse or the mighty war of attation

scheister

i have heard from a few different places about my will wining the race but at 10-1 and fav atm is there much chage there any toughts

kingshankly

scheister wrote: »

i have heard from a few different places about my will wining the race but at 10-1 and fav atm is there much chage there any toughts

wi
he will want good ground if it comes up soft i would say ruby will ride southern vic for the father and if thats the case he will be closer to 20/1.wait till a couple of days beforehand or on the day and see what the going is like

admiralofthefleet

i dont know why but l'ami is screaming at me to back it

finbarrk

Character building out now.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/03/27/RACING_National_Building.html

NewApproach

Major ? over Irish Invaders stamina imo

NewApproach

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

i dont know why but l'ami is screaming at me to back it

Im keen on him too, except for the fact he hated every second of it last year, and thats enough to put me off

Whyno

NewApproach wrote: »

Im keen on him too, except for the fact he hated every second of it last year, and thats enough to put me off

Hes a differently prepared horse this year though..has to have a big chance

mdwexford

Whyno wrote: »

Hes a differently prepared horse this year though..has to have a big chance

Running in the stupid Cross-Country and getting smashed when you look the winner is good preparation?

This mutant ended Mick Fitz's career, if he gets round it will be an achievement.

spothediference

mdwexford wrote: »

Running in the stupid Cross-Country and getting smashed when you look the winner is good preparation?

This mutant ended Mick Fitz's career, if he gets round it will be an achievement.

so - SIR PETER md wexford O SULLIVAN thats 6 posts and ur national pick is?

kingshankly

i would also give lami a squeak, will stay it depends how his jumping stands up,thought he got a poor ride a cheltneham thought he should of kicked for home earlier to take the kick out of garde champtre.
i would also give a mention to off shore account fron the swan yard at around 33/1

trevo

how the hell can you give lami a chance or my will?? these horse's have done their raceing at this level a long time ago..... my will is fav only because of his trainer/jockey and it looks like ruby might ride for his father... really look at who's in the race and what they have done and who's yet to improve....my will and lami are not improving.... you have a gold cup winner who has raced 6 times since and his in fine fettle and stayed away from the cold cup this year for the reason he'll be fresh for this race!! ted walsh's horse is another who is improving and we all know he can train a horse for this and theirs nobody else in better form then willie mullins and we all no how well he done with hegehunter... lami or my will ......will not win....i'll give 50/1 on both

RichieLawlor

trevo wrote: »

how the hell can you give lami a chance or my will??

these horse's have done their raceing at this level a long time ago

..... my will is fav only because of his trainer/jockey my will and lami are not improving....

you have a gold cup winner who has raced 6 times since and his in fine fettle and stayed away from the cold cup this year for the reason he'll be fresh for this race!!

lami or my will ......will not win....i'll give 50/1 on both

Worst Post in Boards Horse racing history, you really have no clue or this is a giant level

My Will Boasts the single best piece of form this year of anyone in the race, his 5th in that Gold Cup was a fantastic run and well deserves to be favourite. Its not solely based on Trainer/Jockey combination, but Ruby will ride My Will imo

L'Ami has been reinvigorated since switching to Enda Bolger and cross country racing, lets not forget aswell he was high class and Grade 1/2 level in the last few years, only went down a nose to Kauto Star in the Aon. probably doesnt jump well enough but is definitly no back number, if he can get it together he will have a squeak, and there is talk AP will pick this one.

I assume the next part is War of attrition, yes hes a former Gold cup winner, yes hes potentially well treated, but hes not been overly impressive this year and is obviously injury prone, he missed the gold cup thru injury not to rest up for the national.

also i assume you have no intention of taking or honouring 50/1 bets on these two horses, so i ask you, stop posting total crap on here, at least come up with some decent arguments please.

abouttobebanned

What is it with Richie Lawlor and Mdwexford being so patronising and pedantic? Were you bullied in school lads?

mdwexford

spothediference wrote: »

so - SIR PETER md wexford O SULLIVAN thats 6 posts and ur national pick is?

I will tell you closer to the time.
Also i know far more than that old fogey.

abouttobebanned wrote: »

What is it with Richie Lawlor and Mdwexford being so patronising and pedantic? Were you bullied in school lads?

I have a huge inferiority complex as a result of having a tiny penis.

kingshankly

trevo wrote: »

how the hell can you give lami a chance or my will?? these horse's have done their raceing at this level a long time ago..... my will is fav only because of his trainer/jockey and it looks like ruby might ride for his father... really look at who's in the race and what they have done and who's yet to improve....my will and lami are not improving.... you have a gold cup winner who has raced 6 times since and his in fine fettle and stayed away from the cold cup this year for the reason he'll be fresh for this race!! ted walsh's horse is another who is improving and we all know he can train a horse for this and theirs nobody else in better form then willie mullins and we all no how well he done with hegehunter... lami or my will ......will not win....i'll give 50/1 on both

i will have a €200 on my will at 50/1 if thats ok

kenco

Anyone else here think that Southern Vic is in at the weights? If the ground is anything worse than good and he jumps round (ok two ifs) is it not a case of how far the horse will win by??

finbarrk

Southern Vic is definatley in and if Ruby picks him as is the rumour he could go off close to fav on the day.

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,294298,00.html

Hobart

Lads, cool it down, especially Md and RL. Any more crap, and I'll start handing out bannings.

mdwexford

Im very cooled Hobart, not sure what ive said that warrants a warning, i was attacking the post not the poster, ive said nothing wrong as far as i can see but no doubt you shall correct me..??!!

Whyno

trevo wrote: »

how the hell can you give lami a chance or my will?? these horse's have done their raceing at this level a long time ago..... my will is fav only because of his trainer/jockey and it looks like ruby might ride for his father... really look at who's in the race and what they have done and who's yet to improve....my will and lami are not improving.... you have a gold cup winner who has raced 6 times since and his in fine fettle and stayed away from the cold cup this year for the reason he'll be fresh for this race!! ted walsh's horse is another who is improving and we all know he can train a horse for this and theirs nobody else in better form then willie mullins and we all no how well he done with hegehunter... lami or my will ......will not win....i'll give 50/1 on both

This has to be a level.....No one that knows anythin bout racing nor either of these 2 horses would post this tripe...Go study your form man and come back and read your HorseS**t....I`ll take both at 50/1..I`ll have a ton each way on both,Also are you payin fist 5 as per the bookies

kingshankly

Although I totally disagree with trevos post I do not see anything wrong with it. Horse racing is all about opinions and as they say opinions differ patients die, and he has a point in what he is saying(doesn't exactly put it across too well) I for one will certainly not be backing my will (would have taken 50/1 of trev and would have laid treble my stake back on betfair) he is far too short a price in my book

Bluetonic

So who's going over for the racing then?

All three days for me.

finbarrk

I know a good few that are over for more than the racing! Not this year for me.

Bluetonic

finbarrk wrote: »

I know a good few that are over for more than the racing! Not this year for me.

Yes indeed, Everton are playing on the Sunday

trevo

listen lami is now at c/c level the level spotthediff won 3 c/c at the festival and then when it came to liverpool he was found out at this level!!! so how any body can say he'll win is beyond me..... and war of attrition did not have a injury before the gold cup he's being set out for the race since before xmas.... when a trainer know's he's not going to win the gold cup or beat star/deman he picks a different route mouse is very clever!!! i'm not saying he'll win but he'll be a lot closer then my will or lami... theirs still improvment in war and a few others not in my will or lami thats for sure

i said my will or lami will not win and they will not so i'll take that 200 bet at 50/1.

Nulty

gambler here

Any opinions on campanero??

finbarrk

Nulty wrote: »

gambler here

Any opinions on campanero??

He'll be lucky to get in. He needs about 13 more to come out.
Rambling Minster looks like the one for me. He has the form and is on a lovely weight.

RichieLawlor

Ruby confirmed for my will

mdwexford

trevo wrote: »

listen lami is now at c/c level the level spotthediff won 3 c/c at the festival and then when it came to liverpool he was found out at this level!!! so how any body can say he'll win is beyond me..... and war of attrition did not have a injury before the gold cup he's being set out for the race since before xmas.... when a trainer know's he's not going to win the gold cup or beat star/deman he picks a different route mouse is very clever!!! i'm not saying he'll win but he'll be a lot closer then my will or lami... theirs still improvment in war and a few others not in my will or lami thats for sure

i said my will or lami will not win and they will not so i'll take that 200 bet at 50/1.

Perhaps you can tell me you make out there is still improvement in War Of Attrition - a 10yo who hasnt ran to anything like his career best for over 2 years but there is no improvement in My Will - a 9yo who ran a career best last time out.

If you are serious about the bets i will have 100 on My Will with you at 25/1 if you are willing to escrow the money to a mod or a regular poster we both agree on.

mike65

From Guardian

The five-day declarations are now in for Saturday's big race. Cloudy Lane now heads the weights for the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday following the confirmation stage.

Snoopy Loopy and Nozic have both been withdrawn moving the weights up by 3lb and leaving Trevor Hemmings' nine-year-old to shoulder 11st 10lb.


Only nine horses were not confirmed for the race this morning, not including those such as Snoopy Loopy and Nozic who had already been scratched.

Noel Meade's Afistfullofdollars, Jimmy Mangan's Conna Castle and Tom Taaffe's Tumbling Dice will not make the trip over from Ireland.


Carl Llewellyn had previously suggested Gold Cup sixth Roll Along needed more time between his races and he has taken him out of the contest. Hobbs Hill, who ran at Ascot last week, Peter Bowen's Always Waining, Mark Bradstock's King Harald and Donald McCain's Ice Tea will also not run. Ferdy Murphy's Hot Weld also misses out, with the West Witton handler adding: "He won't be ready in time."

trevo

mdwexford wrote: »

Perhaps you can tell me you make out there is still improvement in War Of Attrition - a 10yo who hasnt ran to anything like his career best for over 2 years but there is no improvement in My Will - a 9yo who ran a career best last time out.

If you are serious about the bets i will have 100 on My Will with you at 25/1 if you are willing to escrow the money to a mod or a regular poster we both agree on.

ye he's been set out for this race from his run before xmas... and their is still a lot of impoving left in him yet...the way he went about winning his gold cup and has been rapped in cotton wool since his injury in 2007 says alot!!!!!

but what do i know md ??!!?? and who has ran a big race at chel to run well again at liverpool??