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Waterways, Ashtown, D15.

  • 20-03-2009 12:21am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭


    What do people think of the above dev being relaunched this week...1 beds from €159,000. I know the area and it's pretty nice and has many amenities and the apts overlook the Royal Canal and some playing fields the far side. All looks good value. Or am I being naive?
    Surely, these are value in a market seriously lacking value??

    All feedback welcome...I think!


«1

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Check out their sizes, they are tiny.


  • Hosted Moderators Posts: 10,661 ✭✭✭✭John Mason


    you also have to remember trying to sell a one bed apartment in the future might be very hard, especially if they are matchbox size


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭belcarra


    I've seen the plans and the layouts look more than reasonable.
    47sq.m. (505sq.ft) to 50sq.m. (543sq.ft) - seems ok size in terms of stated dimensions but obviously nothing like going there and getting a feel for it physically.
    Obviously it'd be more difficult to sell a 1bed in future but what about the principal of renting out a place when it should more than cover the mortgage?
    I'm thinking rent = €900, mortgage = €600-ish?

    Surely, this is at a good value level??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,797 ✭✭✭sweetie


    might it be better to get the two bed (229,00 I think) and rent a room (~ 400I would think) and have more space and better selling potential?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭Borzoi


    belcarra wrote: »
    I know the area and it's pretty nice and has many amenities and the apts overlook the Royal Canal and some playing fields the far side. All looks good value. Or am I being naive?

    Living in the area - in fact I walked passed the apartments this morning.

    IMO the blocks do not appear particularly nice, compared to the Crescent around it, but its still quite good. The area is generally quite, and as you say the amenities are good - shops, public transport etc And a pub soon enough.

    The bad things, again IMO, are that overlooking the canal, is also overlooking the railway, make sure you're there when a train is going by to assess the noise levels. The other bad thing is that beside the blocks is a vacant plot. Recently Capel have applied for planning on that plot for up to 11 storeys, which will take 10 years to complete. It's unlikely that they'll get this but realistically it could be 7 storeys, and still take years to complete, so assess that too.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭belcarra


    sweetie wrote: »
    might it be better to get the two bed (229,00 I think) and rent a room (~ 400I would think) and have more space and better selling potential?

    Extra person = less space overall in IMHO...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,183 ✭✭✭jobless


    belcarra wrote: »
    I've seen the plans and the layouts look more than reasonable.
    47sq.m. (505sq.ft) to 50sq.m. (543sq.ft) - seems ok size in terms of stated dimensions but obviously nothing like going there and getting a feel for it physically.
    Obviously it'd be more difficult to sell a 1bed in future but what about the principal of renting out a place when it should more than cover the mortgage?
    I'm thinking rent = €900, mortgage = €600-ish?

    Surely, this is at a good value level??

    bear in mind rents are going south rapidly, you may find in two years that the rent might not cover the mortgage especially in interest rates go up....
    I now there is another phase due to be built if they can shift this phase, and giving the problems they are having you can imagine that the prices for the next phase could be even lower...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,401 ✭✭✭DublinDilbert


    jobless wrote: »
    bear in mind rents are going south rapidly, you may find in two years that the rent might not cover the mortgage especially in interest rates go up....
    I now there is another phase due to be built if they can shift this phase, and giving the problems they are having you can imagine that the prices for the next phase could be even lower...

    Also the management fee which seem to be rising rapidly every where... Say the management fee is 1,800/year, so the difference between renting and buying is much smaller... so for 6 months your mortgage + management fee would be approx 900, anyway...

    At the same time €159K is probably about a 50% discount on 2 years ago, and the location isn't bad at all. So it would make you think...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 130 ✭✭catch88


    My friend has a 3 bed and its really nice. Like a ghost town though and they have pedantic clampers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭Borzoi


    catch88 wrote: »
    they have pedantic clampers.

    Not sure where you mean, but there are no clampers in the Earlswood/Rathborne/Waterways/Crescent.

    The Village, Pelletstown Manor and Royal Canal Park have clampers

    So many management companies, so little done


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39 PAINLESS


    thats a good point about the trains. i used to live in riverforestview leixlip and the trains going by just outside my window did my head in. esp if you work nights..my girlfriend rents in rathborne avenue not a huge distance from the waterways but you can hear the trains from there. its not too bad its more the horn as its pulling off than anything however it might be a different storey from right beside it.... the 2 bedroom ones dont overlook the canal theyre north/west facing so the view from the balcony will be of that vacant plot. they do look nice though and the price isnt too bad either.. might go down n have a look myself..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭DubDani


    belcarra wrote: »
    I've seen the plans and the layouts look more than reasonable.
    47sq.m. (505sq.ft) to 50sq.m. (543sq.ft) - seems ok size in terms of stated dimensions but obviously nothing like going there and getting a feel for it physically.
    Obviously it'd be more difficult to sell a 1bed in future but what about the principal of renting out a place when it should more than cover the mortgage?
    I'm thinking rent = €900, mortgage = €600-ish?

    Surely, this is at a good value level??

    Be aware that many banks don't give mortgages for 1 BR Apartments at all, as they are so difficult to sell on. You will probably have trouble finding a Lender that gives you a mortgage for a 1BR apartment.

    And a rent of 900 Euro for a 1 BR might also be quite optimistic currently. I know people who managed to get rents for 1 BR down to 700-800 Euro in much better locations throughout dublin.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 74 ✭✭francish


    belcarra wrote: »
    I've seen the plans and the layouts look more than reasonable.
    47sq.m. (505sq.ft) to 50sq.m. (543sq.ft) - seems ok size in terms of stated dimensions but obviously nothing like going there and getting a feel for it physically.
    Obviously it'd be more difficult to sell a 1bed in future but what about the principal of renting out a place when it should more than cover the mortgage?
    I'm thinking rent = €900, mortgage = €600-ish?

    Surely, this is at a good value level??

    Daft is advertising 3 one beds in Ashtown at Eur900-950 range, however is this realistic? Maybe 6 months ago, you could get this, but I would have thought the figure is now much lower. There may be people currently paying this level of rent but does anyone know of recent rentals at this range. A friend was only able to get Eur900 for 1 bed with parking in Dublin city centre, a couple of years old but well maintained and reasonable space. Lets say rents in Ashtown fall to Eur600 for 1 bed apartment (prob a bit optimistic) then taking into management fees and other expenses, a valuation of Eur120K would be maximum you would pay. An asking price of Eur159K is prob 33% overvalued. Interesting to hear peoples views on likely future rents in this area.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,305 ✭✭✭irishguy


    I was out there today (Very busy) the apartments are very nice and a really good size. If your working in on that side of town/IFSC its grand as the dart would have you there in no time. Dont think ill be buying one though, think I hold out a bit longer and get a house.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Eglinton


    Continuing my penchant for show apartment tours lately, I took a much longer spin out to this highly advertised development. Got a little lost en route due to the awful mapping on daft.ie which suggested the apartments were on the opposite side of the canal! Got there eventually though. There are many many developments in the area. The approach road from the city side takes you along the canal and into the centre of a high rise cluster of 6 or 7 blocks. I'm not sure if they're all called the Waterways or if it's just the one block with the show apartments.

    I don't know the area very well but the housing estate on the opposite side of the canal (where I got lost) was very nice indeed. Very family friendly. This side of the canal however is a bit more industrial. Hard to know if the rest of the area will be developed properly or be left as a veritable wasteland.

    The grounds and communal interiors are vastly superior to last weeks Herberton experience. There was a nice lady to welcome me and point me in the right direction. Another nice lady and man on arrival from the lift to guide me.

    Unlike Herberton, there was a 3-bed to view here. It was 90sqm. in size (279K I think). The rooms are quite large and the bathrooms are of a high standard. As per usual I was disappointed with the kitchen/living room arrangement (Instant no no from me). The only one that was appealing was the 1-bed where the kitchen was almost separate.

    The balconies are very large compared to most developments. Huge table on it with plenty of seating/BBQ space. The fittings seemed like good quality. The view was nice too over the canal and Dublin mountains in the distance.

    I think it said on the ad that it was close to the Phoenix Park. This is a complete lie. Nowhere near. Also, it's not too far from pretty bad areas of Finglas.

    The presentation throughout was excellent. Whomever the developer has hired for marketing is doing a good job. It would sell it to a lot of people I'd say. The retro look was impressive for the most part.

    Apartments are not generally good value but I have to say, the upper floor levels of this development are not bad, especially if you're overlooking the canal. They're all well laid out, and as someone said, if you were working anywhere along the train line or near Connolly Stn., they're pretty handy. I couldn't see where you could access the train station though. I was there when a train went by and it wasn't too loud at all. Hard to know if that would be the same early in the morning or late at night. You'd still need a car out here for shopping etc. but I wouldn't fancy commuting on those pokey roads.

    Personally I'd be a bit worried that they won't finish the area properly and it is a bit far out for apartments. Nice family homes would have been wonderful to see in this part of Dublin. Had these apartments been closer to town at these prices, I'd take one.

    They had a few ground floor apartments available in the other blocks. Seemed to me that they're desperate to get rid of them. The first thing the marketing woman said was "we're negotiable on these"!. I woudn't go near one though. Every window was on a footpath. You'd always have to keep your blinds closed.

    Anyway, these would suit plenty of people and it's great to see prices coming down to relatively affordable prices.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭belcarra


    Eglinton wrote: »
    I think it said on the ad that it was close to the Phoenix Park. This is a complete lie. Nowhere near. Also, it's not too far from pretty bad areas of Finglas.
    Phoenix Park is less than a mile away from those apts. Also, nearest part of Finglas is prob about a mile the opp direction. From my Sister living in the area for the past 2.5 years she hasn't noticed much neg activity.
    Eglinton wrote: »

    I couldn't see where you could access the train station though. I was there when a train went by and it wasn't too loud at all. Hard to know if that would be the same early in the morning or late at night. You'd still need a car out here for shopping etc.

    Superquinn is a 4 min walk away! And train station is pretty much beside Superquinn! (Both based in The Village) I think you may have come in from the Ratoath Road end and not noticed these. Both extremely convenient!

    Thanks for the thoughts and feedback though. I wonder did they get many booking deposits? If not all gone it would be interesting to see what they are willing to accept in 6 weeks time...??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Eglinton


    belcarra wrote: »
    Phoenix Park is less than a mile away from those apts. Also, nearest part of Finglas is prob about a mile the opp direction. From my Sister living in the area for the past 2.5 years she hasn't noticed much neg activity.

    Superquinn is a 4 min walk away! And train station is pretty much beside Superquinn! (Both based in The Village) I think you may have come in from the Ratoath Road end and not noticed these. Both extremely convenient!

    Thanks for the thoughts and feedback though. I wonder did they get many booking deposits? If not all gone it would be interesting to see what they are willing to accept in 6 weeks time...??

    Yeah, I came in the Rathoath Road. Didn't notice them. I knew the train station had to be easily acessible as I could see it from the balcony. Regarding Phoenix park though, it might be a mile as the crow flies but it seemed that you'd have to go a good distance to cross the canal and navigate a few roads to get there. It's certainly not as close as they'd have you believe.

    From it's promo
    It is the envious views of water, mountain and parkland which make The waterways a landmark location. These apartments overlook the Royal canal and have a bird's eye view of the Phoenix Park"

    I certainly couldn't see the Phoenix park. It's a spurious claim.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,401 ✭✭✭DublinDilbert


    Eglinton wrote: »
    I certainly couldn't see the Phoenix park. It's a spurious claim.

    From Ashtown train station to the Ashtown gate of the park is 0.36 miles, which is about 500mtrs...

    http://www.mapmyrun.com/route/ie/dublin/974123776917639445


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 458 ✭✭ohanloj3


    Eglinton wrote: »

    I think it said on the ad that it was close to the Phoenix Park. This is a complete lie. Nowhere near. Also, it's not too far from pretty bad areas of Finglas.


    Actually away from the finglas side it is only bout 6-7 mins from phoenix park


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 458 ✭✭ohanloj3


    Eglinton wrote: »
    Yeah, Regarding Phoenix park though, it might be a mile as the crow flies but it seemed that you'd have to go a good distance to cross the canal and navigate a few roads to get there. It's certainly not as close as they'd have you believe.

    From it's promo



    I certainly couldn't see the Phoenix park. It's a spurious claim.

    the phoenix park can actually be walked to easier dan driven, ders an exit near d train station


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭IvaBigWun


    ohanloj3 wrote: »
    the phoenix park can actually be walked to easier dan driven, ders an exit near d train station

    Sweet heart of jaysus - where did you go to school?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 458 ✭✭ohanloj3


    IvaBigWun wrote: »
    Sweet heart of jaysus - where did you go to school?


    why??? Is it because I wrote in text languauge??sorry about that!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Eglinton


    From Ashtown train station to the Ashtown gate of the park is 0.36 miles, which is about 500mtrs...

    http://www.mapmyrun.com/route/ie/dublin/974123776917639445
    ohanloj3 wrote: »

    Actually away from the finglas side it is only bout 6-7 mins from phoenix park
    ohanloj3 wrote: »
    the phoenix park can actually be walked to easier dan driven, ders an exit near d train station

    Fair enough. I don't know the area too well so I guess I approached it from the totally wrong side. It wasn't obvious to me at all though how close it was. I still think the 'birds eye view' is misleading. It's great that there's a Superquinn nearby. Because it just seemed in the middle of nowhere to me.

    I wonder what the whole are will be like in a few years time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭belcarra


    http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&source=s_d&saddr=53.375981,-6.324735&daddr=Castleknock+Rd&hl=en&geocode=%3BFTxgLgMdVluf_w&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=15&sll=53.374983,-6.321559&sspn=0.017947,0.038452&ie=UTF8&ll=53.374637,-6.326945&spn=0.008974,0.019226&t=k&z=16

    To clear up any confusion here is a map showing the drive from Waterways to Phoenix park. (In reality it's even shorter but Google don't have all the roads on their map yet!!)

    If you were to walk it you'd go along the canal as far as the train station and join up with the car route.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭Borzoi


    belcarra wrote: »

    If you were to walk it you'd go along the canal as far as the train station and join up with the car route.

    According to Google Earth thats 1.07km, and a nice start to a walk in the Park on a good day :cool:


  • Hosted Moderators Posts: 10,661 ✭✭✭✭John Mason


    as every said, the phoenix park is only a few mins away and you have the horse riding right beside it the complex and you can hire the horse and head off to the phoenix park - i used to do this all the time.

    in relation to the finglas comment, the ratoath road is the quietest part of finglas, so i wouldnt be having any worries about that

    the restuarant there is quiet nice with wifi, the superquinn is small but adequate. you have two beauticans, a barbers, large chemist, great off licence.

    all in all it's appears to be a really nice area. i wouldnt be relying on the train service though, its the maynooth line that stops there. i have been stuck a number of times at the platform because the train is far too packed to get on

    i heard there is quiet a lot of trouble around the canal area at night with gangs of kids and underage drinking. i was actually in pelletstown centre on friday night and there were gangs of kids around stealing bottles of wine and drinking them on the canal.

    there also appears to be big problems with car thefts and vandalism.


    but all and in all not a bad area for cabra


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,401 ✭✭✭DublinDilbert


    but all and in all not a bad area for cabra

    It is amazing how a strip of land sandwiched in-between D7 & D11 gets zoned as D15 :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭belcarra


    It is amazing how a strip of land sandwiched in-between D7 & D11 gets zoned as D15 :rolleyes:

    That does seem weird but is that a good thing or not?
    D11 = Finglas, D7 = Cabra??, D15 = Blanch...is there any advantage???!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,401 ✭✭✭DublinDilbert


    belcarra wrote: »
    That does seem weird but is that a good thing or not?
    D11 = Finglas, D7 = Cabra??, D15 = Blanch...is there any advantage???!

    It is weird, can't quite work it out, i know the area quite well....

    Some would say that this part of D15 is more associated with Castleknock, hence more desirable....

    All and all i don't think its a bad area...


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    It is weird, can't quite work it out, i know the area quite well....

    Some would say that this part of D15 is more associated with Castleknock, hence more desirable....

    All and all i don't think its a bad area...

    Giving it a Castleknock label(its no where near here, more like Ashtown/Cabra) does not change the fact about its location. The anti-social element will never go away.

    Before those RCP apts were built, the area was a joyriding playground as well as a storage area for the horses from the estates.

    I'd never live by a canal anyway, canals in urban areas in Ireland always attract the dodgy crowd even in D4!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 888 ✭✭✭shamblertine


    Anyone know when the next viewing session of these flats will be? Not particularly interested at current prices but wouldn't mind having a nosey about.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭belcarra


    There was viewings on Wed and again on Sat from 2-5.

    I personally think they are decent value and maybe are a case of a developer trying to get some sort of cash due to cash-flow difficulties.
    They might drop a little more but I wouldn't think they'd leave you in too much trouble...not like those who bought in the past year or two anyways!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 888 ✭✭✭shamblertine


    So theres going to be more viewing this sat? They are getting close to reasonable price but still think they are overpriced, and wouldn't want to buy what with the state of the economy at the minute.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,862 ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    First of all i dont know if the same rules apply for all the estates in that area.
    But i have rented for a year in Royal Canal park. The area is quite nice. The train wasnt a problem for me but then again, i used to live about 100 meters away from the busiest railroad (day and night) going out of the port of Rotterdam in Holland. So i was used to much worse.

    What did bug me there though was: had to sign up for tv with a not so great tv provider. Very basic tv and broadband i didnt even consider. This was 1 year ago, might be better now.
    Sky dishes were not allowed.
    Bbq on your balcony was out of the question.

    Again, these kind of things might not be the case in every estate over there but if they are important to you, you better look into it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭belcarra


    I think I saw Eircom phone connections when I was there last sat. Can't be sure though. I know my sister that lived close by had a different company and they went bust soon after she moved in! No sat dishes would be fairly typical for apts.

    One thing I didn't like about these apts was the excessive storage space/room. I def think that in the 2 and 3 beds they could have made much better use of the space. Although maybe it's one of those things that you'd forget about once you moved your stuff in!!

    Doubt I'll be pursuing anything here as after looking at my finances it'd just be too much for me at the moment so no point in putting myself in an uncomfortable cash flow situation but if it was a few months down the line I'd def have seriously considered them.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 197 ✭✭EnigmasWhisper


    My sister went to view the appartments this weekend, all sold out apparently. I wonder if there will be another phase, are anymore planned ? Will they even go ahead with them considering the economic climate, and I heard the developers are experiencing financial probs


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Eglinton


    My sister went to view the appartments this weekend, all sold out apparently. I wonder if there will be another phase, are anymore planned ? Will they even go ahead with them considering the economic climate, and I heard the developers are experiencing financial probs

    Interesting. Can't believe people actually bought those ground floor apartments. Like living in a glass box with the general public peering in at you all day long. And if the developers are in financial difficulty, will they finish the landscaping etc.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 888 ✭✭✭shamblertine


    My sister went to view the appartments this weekend, all sold out apparently. I wonder if there will be another phase, are anymore planned ? Will they even go ahead with them considering the economic climate, and I heard the developers are experiencing financial probs

    I find that hard to believe, yeah the 1 bed apartments were fairly good value compared to whats on offer on the rest of the market, but there was a big increase in price for the 2 and 3 bed apartments.

    Who are all these people who are getting mortgages anyway? Most be public sector workers with their jobs for life :mad:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭who_ru


    Anyone know when the next viewing session of these flats will be? Not particularly interested at current prices but wouldn't mind having a nosey about.

    i find that a shocking statement


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    who_ru wrote: »
    i find that a shocking statement

    Why, because they are flats? ;):D


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 197 ✭✭EnigmasWhisper


    I find that hard to believe, yeah the 1 bed apartments were fairly good value compared to whats on offer on the rest of the market, but there was a big increase in price for the 2 and 3 bed apartments.

    Who are all these people who are getting mortgages anyway? Most be public sector workers with their jobs for life :mad:

    There was one ground floor, and one penthouse left on Monday morning. At those prices Im not surprised to be honest, fantastic value compared to whats been on offer elsewhere


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 197 ✭✭EnigmasWhisper


    Anyone know when the next viewing session of these flats will be? Not particularly interested at current prices but wouldn't mind having a nosey about.

    Im surprised you think that. The developer of this complex knocked over E100,000 off them because basically he needs to shift them to balance the books. Prices are only going to go down another 9% anyway as the market is almost bottomed out judging what prices property is beginning to go at in auctions, always a good indicator. So even if they do go down by another 9% this year, she wouldnt have lost much money, certainly not as much people have lost in recent yrs.

    These prices are actually considerably less than you will get a one bedroom appartment for in any major european city right now, and they are reflective of the market and economy.

    I suspect these prices wont be seen again, for a one bedroom appartment E144,000 (less the 10% knocked off the original price of E159,000 to encourage people to buy !) Considering a one bed ground floor appartment in the same area was in or around E275,000 this time 2 years ago, thats a pretty big drop. Shes down for a cancelation anyway so hopefuly it will work out for her


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    How do you these 1beds will go down by 9% only?

    Amazing how you think the bottom is nearly reached based on one house at an auction :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 197 ✭✭EnigmasWhisper


    gurramok wrote: »
    How do you these 1beds will go down by 9% only?

    Amazing how you think the bottom is nearly reached based on one house at an auction :eek:

    Amazingly I dont know, more of an educated guess. I think the bottom is nigh because of a number of factors, not just because of auction prices (one house ?)

    Realistically how much more do you think a new one bedroom appartment in such a development can go below E132,000 ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Eglinton


    Amazingly I dont know, more of an educated guess. I think the bottom is nigh because of a number of factors, not just because of auction prices (one house ?)

    Realistically how much more do you think a new one bedroom appartment in such a development can go below E132,000 ?

    €131,000 more?!?:p

    But seriously, you can never say there's a minimum. It's whatever the developer will agree to. And plenty of them are gettin more and more desperate to off-load. One bed apartments are not a great purchase for any buyer no matter what their circumstances.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 370 ✭✭martian1980


    Amazingly I dont know, more of an educated guess. I think the bottom is nigh because of a number of factors, not just because of auction prices (one house ?)

    Realistically how much more do you think a new one bedroom appartment in such a development can go below E132,000 ?

    I think that although taxes are going up next week, jobs are being lost, people are emigrating, the arse continues to fall out of the public finances and there are idle construction sites and vacant properties all over dublin that prices can only go up from here. We have plainly reached a level where all of the residential construction overhang will be cleared.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Amazingly I dont know, more of an educated guess. I think the bottom is nigh because of a number of factors, not just because of auction prices (one house ?)

    Realistically how much more do you think a new one bedroom appartment in such a development can go below E132,000 ?

    The auction was highlighted in the tabloids this week as one posh house sold in D4 and hyped up as the party was back on hence i referred to the auction you quoted. Unless, what other auction are you referring to?

    The above 2 posters answered your questions, i just love to know how you figured out 9% and 132 grand?

    My 'educated guess' is that they will go below 132k until such time the state of the economy stabilises as a 1bed is not a family home and that time is many years away.
    So yes, the present buyers of this latest phase will be in negative equity pretty soon depending on the size of their mortgage.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 197 ✭✭EnigmasWhisper


    gurramok wrote: »
    The auction was highlighted in the tabloids this week as one posh house sold in D4 and hyped up as the party was back on hence i referred to the auction you quoted. Unless, what other auction are you referring to?.

    Im not sure about 'posh houses' Im referring to auction prices in general that seem to demonstrate prices seem very close to bottoming out.
    gurramok wrote: »
    The above 2 posters answered your questions, i just love to know how you figured out 9% and 132 grand?

    I was asking you. 9% is my own guess and also taking into account the prediction of 9/10 % predicted by the ESRI. House prices are now at where they were 2004 / 2005 and the fall in prices is stabilizing, albeit slowly.

    As for the 132 grand simple math.

    Original cost of The Waterways appartment - E159,000

    Less 10% (explained) offered by developer as incentive to pruchase - E143,000

    My guess / estimated further drop of 9% in the next 12 mths (12,870) on E143,000 - e130,130

    So having calculated it on my phone calculator rather than in my head...E130,130

    Hence why I asked you did you think it was possible for a one bedroom appartment would drop any less than E132,000
    gurramok wrote: »
    My 'educated guess' is that they will go below 132k until such time the state of the economy stabilises as a 1bed is not a family home and that time is many years away.
    So yes, the present buyers of this latest phase will be in negative equity pretty soon depending on the size of their mortgage.

    Your 'educated guess' is as pointless as mine regarding the expected 'stabilizing' of the economy and its impact on further fluctuations in the housing sector.

    Its commonly perceived that the rents in a specific area are normally the best albeit crude estimate of what an apprtment / property in that area is worth.

    i.e You have an appartment in an area where a rent of 1000/pm is being achieved. This works out at 12k pa. So multipy that by 20years and you get 240k. Most investors work off a single figure yeild so at 6% yeild that house is actually worth about 225k. Seems an over simplified way of measuring hosue prices, but house prices have never been measured against 'real' economic factors in recent years.

    9% is a figure Im hazzarding a guess at, considering inflation, intrest rates, empty houses, studying the market and considering true propety prices considering what they would have been taking normal inflationary rises since 1995 etc etc. Im guessing the biggest corrections will be in areas like Dublin that have seen the most dramatic property prices in recent years, so considering this same appartment is more than E100,000 than something would have cost 2 yrs ago i think its safe to say its not going to fall a massive ammount more.

    Traditionally 1 bed appartments hold their value in urban centres, as do their rental incomes. Someone being in 'negative' equity on an appartment bought for E130,000 now, at a point close to a bottoming out of a market, when they have saved a almost E100,000 -E130,000 on a similar appartment compared to a few years ago doesnt make any sense. Property cycles throughout the world generally follow a ten year cycle, as do property bubbles, after that the only way is up regardless of how slow that climb might be.

    Anyway, I was just offering an oppinion about house prices in general and an Ashtown development my sister hopes to invest in. I thought it odd that someone might not be interested in an appartment that has just been reduced by over E100,000.

    Either ways my sister she has saved a fortune being patient and waiting to purchase something. She wants a home, with an affordable mortage. She now has the possibilty of both, with nowhere near the 'negative equity' others have experienced over recent years, so I doubt she or anyone else who can afford to purchase a home for half the price it was (more or less) a few yrs ago will be too concerned with anymore falls over the coming year or two . . . unless they fall to the price of a holliday in Benidorm


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭empirix


    i thought these were ok, would prefer a two bed, still the 1 beds were not that tiny, nice big balconies, could rent that out with a hammock:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭belcarra


    What price would you suggest 1 beds are going for at the moment?
    This is one development in a nice area which is way below in price than any other developments on the market. I think too maybe people are taking the lazy approach of seeing these prices as being reflective of the market (However small it currently is!) at the present time. I would guess that some 1 beds have been sold in the past couple of months for €200,000 plus. These particular apts were set at a level simply for them to shift...and that's what they did! The overall market hasn't reached this level yet. However, I'm not saying it won't at some stage in the not too distant future but to simply state that they are on offer for "price x" must mean they will sell for at least "price x minus 15%" or whatever rate is plucked out of the sky is just lazy.
    In summary, there is value in those prices (At the moment) but that might also disappear. However, any amount of negative equity resulting from these apts will be minor (and probably bearable) in comparison to that Neg Eq us householders from the past few years will potentially face once this situation has levelled off. Also conversely, they should move back into positive equity much sooner than the general population!


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