Scenarios

JJ

I know it's pretty straightforward and not as complex as the Heino Cup but I like going through all the possible scenarios after the penultimate weekend. Please feel free to add anything I left out or make corrections:

Ireland beat Wales.
-Ireland win the Championship, Grand Slam and Triple Crown

Ireland lose to Wales by 12 points or less.
-Ireland win the Championship.
-Wales win the Triple Crown.
-No team wins the Grand Slam.

Ireland and Wales draw.
-Ireland win the Championship.
-No team wins the Grand Slam or Triple Crown.

Ireland lose to Wales by 13 points or more.
-Wales win the Championship and the Triple Crown.
-No team wins the Grand Slam.

Erin Go Brath

Defeat is not an option for Ireland. If Ireland lose the game, but win the C'ship i will be gutted. It would be a hollow meaningless win after we've come so far.

A nuclear bomb hits Cardiff, killing all but Gavin Henson, whos fake tan doubles as a radiation shield.

Other than that you are spot on

JJ

He he, I was thinking of this prediction:

Wales overwhelm Ireland in the first half and go up by 30 points. Ireland come back in the second half to narrow the gap to 15 points. ROG kicks a drop goal in the dying seconds to close the gap to 12 points. Referee blows the whistle and Ireland wins the championship.

However, I'm with Erin, I think the lads and the fans would be dissapointed and the championship would feel a little hollow if Ireland lost by 12 points or less.

jam_on_toast

JJ wrote: »

Nice one, I was thinking of this prediction:

Wales overwhelm Ireland in the first half and go up by 30 points. Ireland come back in the second half to narrow the gap to 15 points. ROG kicks a drop goal in the dying seconds to close the gap to 12 points. Referee blows the whistle and Ireland wins the championship.

We'd still lose the match and therefore the championship would only be a consolation prize. As said above, its win or nothing.

polishpaddy

you've got some vivid imagination there jj haha

is_that_so

Wales seem to be suffering from that "difficult second season" syndrome. IMO they have not played well at any point and have had more than their fair share of luck. Under those circumstance it is hard to see them get the necessary 13 points. The result against Italy which was supposed to set them up with a huge points differential is another pressure point. Meanwhile we are facing destiny as they say. Having managed to grind out four winning results I think we are better placed to eke out a score win. That said midfield needs fixing and I'd have Wallace back for D'Arcy. I go with a tight match, a single score win for Ireland and the Slam.

Stealdo

is_that_so wrote: »

Wales seem to be suffering from that "difficult second season" syndrome. IMO they have not played well at any point and have had more than their fair share of luck.

Or maybe they were just never that good to begin with. They just have a ridiculous amount of self belief when they get a bit of momentum behind them.

Unfortunately this is going to go down in history as one of the poorest 6N since Italy joined probably vying with Wales GS year in 2005. Proof if anyone needs it is the fact that had Wales failed to score that late try on Saturday Ireland would now have won the 6N with a week to spare. Having played well for 3 halves.

connundrum

Stealdo wrote: »

Unfortunately this is going to go down in history as one of the poorest 6N since Italy joined probably vying with Wales GS year in 2005.

Whilst I would agree with this sentiment, I'd still rather be involved in a GS winning team during a poor 6N season than not have a GS at all.

The winning team can do nothing about the standard of opposition they play, only beat them.

Noffles

It's a shame, there is not single team that is standing out at all, unlike last where Wales were far and away the best team.. this year has so far been fairly poor... saying that it would all change on Saturday, three outstanding games and Welsh win to close it...

Stealdo

connundrum wrote: »

Whilst I would agree with this sentiment, I'd still rather be involved in a GS winning team during a poor 6N season than not have a GS at all.

The winning team can do nothing about the standard of opposition they play, only beat them.

Absolutely agree - just pointing out that maybe Wales are not quite as good as people thought last year. Momentum is a huge thing.

Royale with Cheese

Have to agree it's been a poor year, the record books won't show that though in 10 years time, just the winner.

Wales haven't played well but I could see them pulling something together, look at how England did yesterday. It's not like Ireland have been brilliant either. Wales in Cardiff would have been seen as Ireland's toughest game before the tournament started, and I'd still think it is.Then again perhaps Ireland could turn it on.

Either way I don't see Wales winning by 13 or more.

zAbbo

There's only 1 scenario.

If we beat Wales - we win the Grand Slam, everything else is a failure

Stealdo

zAbbo wrote: »

There's only 1 scenario.

If we beat Wales - we win the Grand Slam, everything else is a failure

I'd disagree with that somewhat. This is not an easy competition to win and winning it is an achievement. For those of us who were drawn to the game by the promise of the early/mid 80's and then had to watch from the terraces of Lansdowne throughout the 90's winning will mean something slam or not. unfortunately if it doesn't come with a GS we won't be able to enjoy it on the day, and I'm sure it'll mean little to the players until after they've retired and can reflect on it. In a way I wish Wales hadn't managed their come back against Italy as the Championship would be won and there'd be no ambiguity in anyones mind next week. Slam or bust.

Diamondmaker

zAbbo wrote: »

There's only 1 scenario.

If we beat Wales - we win the Grand Slam, everything else is a failure

The beauty of the situation is that there is the ultimate reward for winning this fixture, its not like a proper league situation, where there would huge celebration - even after losing by 10, as the big prize was the league itself, therfore there will be no game plan other than to win.

The game is going to be a true classic as Wales will have absolutely nothing to lose and will be able to just cut loose with 20 to go, or earlier in chase of the points. If they do get the points we will then have to cut loose also.

Both side are capable of some good lose play and it should be a cracker, I just dont know can we live with a Welsh team with nothing to lose, could be like the Fiji game in the RWC or 2nd half Ireland come back V France a while ago ??

I think the players will look at losing by 12 as a bit of a failure, certainly the older guys. The guys who have been in this sitaution, of losing a GS at some point during a 6N will be gutted.

Remember England 3 years in a row against the 3 Celts on their way to the 2003 RWC and GS, I especially remeber the Ireland game, they dod not like like a team that just won the championship. MJ certainly not !

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Eoin

Remember 2 years ago, when France beat us in Croker. "Our year" to win the grand slam was gone. Fast forward to Rome a few weeks later, and it was all down to points difference. France were clearly delighted to win, despite not winning the grand slam, and Ireland were clearly gutted to not win - again, despite not winning the grand slam.

If we were to lose to Wales, but win on points difference - it would be a massive anti-climax. But it would still be that elusive piece of silverware in the trophy cabinet. I think that to say it means nothing is an insult to the tournament. How can we be "above" winning a tournament that we've won f--k all times?

Suppose we had already lost a game, but it was down to us and Wales in the final weekend - do you think that the team wouldn't be over the moon to win the tournament?

Royale with Cheese

They should be over the moon to win the tournament. Given the team Ireland have had for the past 7-8 years they should have won something by now.

I'd guess if Wales were to win by less than 13, after the initial disappointment of the anti-climax wore off, Ireland would be very happy to finally have a 6 nations trophy in their cabinet.

Euro_Kraut

Here's a scenario: We are 13 pts down with, say 7 mins to go.... we get a penalty with the option of going for the corner and maybe taking it back to 6 pts or taking a straight forward 3 pts and basically securing the 6 Nations.

What should BOD and ROG do?

newmills

Here's one - gavin henson "some say he's the greatest centre in the northern hemisphere" actually scores a try in the match - make that his first try in this six nations - actually make that his first try in any six nations match!!

Jesus even the bull has outscored him!!:D:D