Cheltenham Day 2 -Wed 11th March

thewools

Instead of having several topics - Lets group all comments / analysis / bets for CHELTENHAM DAY 2 only please.

Races are as follows:

National Hunt Chase - 13:30
Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle - 14:05
Royal & Sun Alliance Chase - 14:40
Champion Chase - 15:20
Coral Cup - 16:00
Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle - 16:40
Weatherbys Champion Bumper - 17.15

careca

Two fancies for day two.

Merchant Paddy (ew) in National Hunt Chase
Sicilian Secret in bumper.

SilentAssassin

Haven't a clue about horse racing but always have a punt at Cheltenham. Had 'Go Native' to win and 'Punjabi' ew today from a comibination of tips, jockey names, etc

Hoping for more of the same on day two. Thinking of backing 'Well Chief' ew in the Queen Mother. Any tips on the other races (or the QM)?

Rooy

SilentAssassin wrote: »

Haven't a clue about horse racing but always have a punt at Cheltenham. Had 'Go Native' to win and 'Punjabi' ew today from a comibination of tips, jockey names, etc

Hoping for more of the same on day two. Thinking of backing 'Well Chief' ew in the Queen Mother. Any tips on the other races (or the QM)?

i saw seigemaster mentioned a few times , currently 20/1 with PP in the RSA , might be worth a e/w shot.
Dont think I would be backing any horse in the QM with MM so short.

It's myself and my girlfriends first month anniversary next week (soppy, I know) and I would like to treat her to a nice dinner out and drinks. But need the money to do so.

So any good tips for tomorrow would be greatly appreciated!

aya14

Deleted User wrote: »

It's myself and my girlfriends first month anniversary next week (soppy, I know) and I would like to treat her to a nice dinner out and drinks. But need the money to do so.

So any good tips for tomorrow would be greatly appreciated!

Take her to McDonalds euro-saver menu ftw.
On a serious note Master Minded to win Queen Mother by 9 lengths or more 6/4

oppiuy

These are mine for tomorrow kept to small stakes all the same.

The masterminded 9 length bet looks good thou

13.30 Coe e.w
14.05 Diamond harry win
14.30 What a Friend win
15.20 Twist Magic e.w
16.00 Pause and clause e.w
16.40 Flag and honour
17.15 Dunguib win

Any analysis on these greatly appreciated

Are multi-bets worth it?

I'm doing doubles, trebbles and four-folds of .20c e/w with single bets on Diamond Harry, What a Friend, Twist Magic, Master Minded, and Dugwib. All with .20c e/w.

How does it sound? Total cost: 12.80

Total possible return: 1258.43

Added on Coe as a single bet with .10cent e/w and a five-folds of .20c each way.

Total cost: 22.80

Tubberadora

Wednesday

NH Chase Challenge Cup:
Cant buy Time is favourite due to the trainers record in this race, 4 from 7. However he has no garauntee to stay the trip. I think market interest for him could be significant. Kornati Kid looks good but again trip is a concern. One of the few to run over course and distance is Niche Market and this has good claims. Coe is another one from an inform stable that is almost certain to stay the trip.
However my selection here goes to Alan Kings Pangbourne. He will get the trip and King had the winner of the race last year. Odds of 25/1 currently available.

Verdict: Pangbourne 0.5pts e/w

Ballymore Novices
This might seem like madness to some but I think there is extreme value to be had by backing the first three in the market. I cant see outside any of Mikael D'haugenaut, Karabak or Diamond Harry. Their respective prices are 3/1, 7/2, and 9/2, giving an overround on the 3 of 65%. An investment of 100 divided between the 3 would give a profit of 35 minimum if one of the 3 came in.
If I am to pick one, a bit of rain would suit Mikael d'Haugenaut as he loves soft ground. I think it is wrong to say he doesnt go on anything else as he has never been tried. If the ground was soft or heavy I think he would be close to odds on. Therefore the 3/1 on offer for him is looking good.

Verdict: Mikael d'Haugenaut 1pt win

Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
This is the one race I really cant get my head around. You could make cases for several but also rule out the same ones for various reasons. The form is all over the place. Im not a fan of Cooldine and I think his price is false due to the Ruby factor. I'll have a tentative selection with Gone to Lunch at 7/1.

Verdict: Gone to Lunch 1pt win

Queen Mother
Master Minded. If I am up its all going on. If not I might try for a forecast with Well Chief.

Verdict: Master Minded 5pt win

Coral Cup
A quick glance at the card will reveal that one has form head and shoulders above the rest. Great Endeavour. However he is slightly out of the handicap but I think this is intentional. Pipe has left Lough Derg in despite carrying a huge weight and gives Timmy Murphy the ride on Great Endeavour. I think this could be a nice little touch here at 10/1.
Another that catches my eye is the Nicholls second string in Thundering Star. I would rate Harry Skelton as one of the best up and coming young jockeys in the game and the 5lbs he claims from the bottom weight could be crucial. At 33/1 I rate it as a great e/w bet.

Verdict: Great Endeavour Thundering Star 0.5pt ew each

Fred Winter
I have no strong opinion on this as it is wide open. Anything at all could win this. Mr Thriller was disappointing Sat but will have favoured ground here. Will find it hard to win from top weight but has solid place claims at 14/1. Ronaldo des Mottes could also go quite close. Amore Mio is a horse that is improving rapidly but has quite a high weight for its first handicapp race. However I think Emma Lavelle is one of the shrewdest around and could have the horse just right. The favourite is Alexander Severus who is widely tipped but I think the value has gone from him. I will be having a small bet on Amore Mio at 12/1

Verdict: Amore Mio 1pt win

Champion Bumper
Only one winner here for me. Dunguib seems to be ahead of the rest in my opinion. Rite of Passaage is now favourite but I couldnt back him with Welds record here. Mullins' are a mystery, nobody knows what is the best of them. As Sir M Stoute once said "if you think you have two derby winners you have none". Dunguib will be getting my Nap for Wednesday though.

Verdict: Dunguib 3pt win

Any feedback is appreciated.

Dec

aya14

Deleted User wrote: »

Are multi-bets worth it?

I'm doing doubles, trebbles and four-folds of .20c e/w with single bets on Diamond Harry, What a Friend, Twist Magic, Master Minded, and Dugwib. All with .20c e/w.

How does it sound? Total cost: 12.80

Total possible return: 1258.43

Added on Coe as a single bet with .10cent e/w and a five-folds of .20c each way.

Total cost: 22.80

Generally they are not worth it. You rely on each horse doing you an equal turn which is rare.
Maybe all singles with same selections is better. That way you can adjust your stake as you win/lose

evil_seed

Wednesday
1.30 cant buy time @ 4/1
BALLY NOV HRD - 14:05: Mikael Dhaguenet @ 5/1
2.40 - the market man @ 14/1
CHAMp CHASE - 15:20: big zeb @ 10/1
4.00 - dancing tornado @ 16/1
4.40 - mr thriller @ 14/1
5.15 - Cadspeed @ 16/1

SilentAssassin

I'll admit my horse racing knowledge isn't great but I can't believe the price on master minded. Some big favourites (e.g. Cousin Vinny & Binocular) failed to win on day one and it seems to me that favourites in recent times don't do that great at Cheltenham. Isn't there a case to look at other horses in the field? With the others starting at 11/1 there's some great each way value there and who knows one could pull off a win. Master minded could easily fall or pull up. Could see some people losing the shirt off their backs tomorrow :eek:

aya14

SilentAssassin wrote: »

I'll admit my horse racing knowledge isn't great but I can't believe the price on master minded. Some big favourites (e.g. Cousin Vinny & Binocular) failed to win on day one and it seems to me that favourites in recent times don't do that great at Cheltenham. Isn't there a case to look at other horses in the field? With the others starting at 11/1 there's some great each way value there and who knows one could pull off a win. Master minded could easily fall or pull up. Could see some people losing the shirt off their backs tomorrow :eek:

Thats the only way to beat Master Minded is if he falls.He's so short because
1. He won this last year.
2.The ground suits either way
3.Horse jumps flawlessly
4.His runs since last years race have been very impressive
5. This isn't the greatest renewal of the race certainly no Moscow Flyer v Azertioup here.

Hope this helps

aya14

aya14 wrote: »

Generally they are not worth it. You rely on each horse doing you an equal turn which is rare.
Maybe all singles with same selections is better. That way you can adjust your stake as you win/lose

I'm not expecting anything, which is why I put such small bets. But I'll be absolutely delighted if they all come in.

Doubt it shall happen, but we shall see.

dotsflan

SilentAssassin wrote: »

I'll admit my horse racing knowledge isn't great but I can't believe the price on master minded. Some big favourites (e.g. Cousin Vinny & Binocular) failed to win on day one and it seems to me that favourites in recent times don't do that great at Cheltenham. Isn't there a case to look at other horses in the field? With the others starting at 11/1 there's some great each way value there and who knows one could pull off a win. Master minded could easily fall or pull up. Could see some people losing the shirt off their backs tomorrow :eek:

i think the only way he'll lose tomorrow is by falling cause he is IMO the best horse in training at the moment!! i myself will be putting a few quid ew on petit robin @ 16/1.

aya14

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not expecting anything, which is why I put such small bets. But I'll be absolutely delighted if they all come in.

Doubt it shall happen, but we shall see.

Gl with your bet.
Worse comes to worst just take the misses for a Picnic:pac:

SilentAssassin

aya14 wrote: »

Thats the only way to beat Master Minded is if he falls.He's so short because
1. He won this last year.
2.The ground suits either way
3.Horse jumps flawlessly
4.His runs since last years race have been very impressive
5. This isn't the greatest renewal of the race certainly no Moscow Flyer v Azertioup here.

Hope this helps

The signs certainly do point to a win for Master Minded. Think I'll go for a bit of each way value on Well Chief (currently 14-1) and even if he only places it will be a nice little earner

lucybeag

hi just joined this board just wondering has anyone any good tips for tommorrow

fr wishy washy

Mikael D'haugenet in the 2nd race my nap fwiw,I think this horse is as tough as teak with a finishing kick to boot.

rocketballs

although this is an extremely tough race to call, Coral cup 4pm, i think chief yeoman 28/1 and Mirage Dore 16/1 are outstanding value at the prices offered

lucybeag

amore mio in hte second last race

twitch1984

shinrock paddy is great value in the bumper

he skated up d hill last time he was here and at 14/1 could recoup any losses made tomorrow

lucybeag

what about thunder star in the fifth race

rocketballs

a lot can win the coral, thunder star included, however having skimmed my list of possibilities, some may find it strange that the horse i would back above any other is chief yeoman at 28s. but hes in great form, and has serious experience in some good class races. in fairness, lots of big fields tomorrow, and is hard to choose which is best in most races as a lot have claims. any help is obviously welcome.

im no expert, as i only had one winner in forpaddydeplasterer today, but i did have some good runs from big prices horses in nenuphar collonges, the sawyer, maljimar and shoreacres

twitch1984

lucybeag wrote: »

what about thunder star in the fifth race

i find it hard to look past psycho in this race ( if the market is in his favour)

Tubberadora

twitch1984 wrote: »

shinrock paddy is great value in the bumper

he skated up d hill last time he was here and at 14/1 could recoup any losses made tomorrow

There is no way in the world should anybody ever contemplate backing a horse with Barry Connell on board

Tubberadora

lucybeag wrote: »

what about thunder star in the fifth race

I like him as stated earlier. Harry Skelton riding, claiming 5 is a massive positive.

TskTsk

Dunno much about the sport, but based on what I've read I'll go for:

1:30 Parson's Pistol (e/w)
2:05 Mikael D'Haguenet (win)
2:40 Cooldine (win)
3:20 Petite Robin (win w/o Master Minded)
4:00 Dancing Tornado (e/w)
4:40 Miss Sarenne (e/w), Higgy's Boy (e/w)
5:15 Morning Supreme (e/w)

lucybeag

Dunguib in the last race?

Moscow Flyer

Mikael Dhaguenet
Cooldine
Rite of Passage

Do a treble and a patent

Tubberadora

lucybeag wrote: »

Dunguib in the last race?

Yes.

twitch1984

Tubberadora wrote: »

There is no way in the world should anybody ever contemplate backing a horse with Barry Connell on board

normally would agree with you but was watching the replay of his last win in cheltenham and if he runs like dat tomorrow it wouldnt matter if it was me riding him

Tubberadora

twitch1984 wrote: »

normally would agree with you but was watching the replay of his last win in cheltenham and if he runs like dat tomorrow it wouldnt matter if it was me riding him

Id back you on him before him. He bet nothing in that race, likewise his race in Gowran.

lucybeag

so we are going for
mikael d'haugenet
shinrock paddy
chief yeoman
thunderstar
dunguib
???????????????????????????

rocketballs

TskTsk wrote: »

Dunno much about the sport, but based on what I've read I'll go for:

1:30 Parson's Pistol (e/w)
2:05 Mikael D'Haguenet (win)
2:40 Cooldine (win)
3:20 Petite Robin (win w/o Master Minded)
4:00 Dancing Tornado (e/w)
4:40 Miss Sarenne (e/w), Higgy's Boy (e/w)
5:15 Morning Supreme (e/w)

Good call i feel on Parson's pistol in the first. nice price aswel, hope he comes up good.

twitch1984

lucybeag wrote: »

so we are going for
mikael d'haugenet
shinrock paddy
chief yeoman
thunderstar
dunguib
???????????????????????????

basically stick a pin in them lol

NewApproach

A longshot but I think Scotsirish is worth a punt at 28/1 e/w without Master Minded.

A horse who I am convinced is best on good ground, he won nicely over 2 miles at cork in december.

He didnt look up for it in his last run, but he has schooled well since and at 28/1 with Ladbrokes I think he's worth a few quid

lucybeag

we wil see tommorrow

NewApproach

Tubberadora wrote: »

I like him as stated earlier. Harry Skelton riding, claiming 5 is a massive positive.

He is 8 pounds out of the handicap, even taking into account skelton's 5 pund claim he is still 3 pounds wrong, with an inexperienced rider aboard, not exactly a positive in a race such as the coral cup, where positioning throughout the race is key.

He was beaten at odds on at Taunton on monday, wasnt able to quicken over 20f. All his previous racing over hurdles was at 2 miles. He needs to improve drastically to have a chance in my opinion.

rocketballs

1:30 Parson's Pistol, Forest Leaves(who beat Beantown over 28f in Feb09. beantown was 9/1 for this race last year and PU but was 2nd to Hot weld in 2006 in this race) Problem now is that Witcheta Lineman now looks like hes going to run again after winning today and is 7/1, tempting

2:05 so tough. il take karadak over mad max. karabak slammed kangaroo court by 14l giving 7lbs away and form works out well with somersly 3rd in that race, who was 3rd in the supreme novices today.karabak also won at cheltenham. although mad max has beaten karabak by a length before, and for workd out from his last race with shoreacres running well in the supreme novices again today. also in that race, he beat pause and clause who is close to favourite for the 2nd last on wednesday in cheltenham.

2:40 1st Caruthers, 2nd Gone to Lunch

3:20 Master Minded, not bothering with anything else e/w

4:00 Chief Yeoman, Mirage Dore

4:40 Simarian 40/1 huge price. hope the weight isnt too much. CD winner twice, only one in field. 2nd CD win in Nov08 in Soft at 11-6. he is 11-4 tomorrow with a 3lb claimer and race was a class1 grade2. this is a class1 grade3 . do the maths. ground seems fine, someone let me know if im bonkers on this LOL

5:15 havent a clue. an irish horse anyway

wannabepr

Only Backing 2 horses 2morrow.. Gone To Lunch @ 9/1 and Cadspeed At 16/1:D:D I'd say Gone to Lunch Will Do It

Moscow Flyer

Moscow Flyer wrote: »

Mikael Dhaguenet
Cooldine
Rite of Passage

Do a treble and a patent

I did a treble and patent with Mikael Dhaguuenet, Cooldine and Dunguib.

corny

The Ballymore looks like an excellent contest tomorrow. Karabak is my nap for the festival.

Hopefully Well Chief can get near his old form and at least get a sight of MM crossing the finish line. The rest are dire.

Oh and i'm gonna back Willie Mullins not to train the Bumper winner. I'd be worried he has lots of decent horses with similar ability but nothing well above average. Might leave it open for D Welds horse me thinks.

beezer84

My betting for the day is far from done but I have placed a few bets already:

2.05 - Diamond Harry - unbeaten, not progressing so much anymore but hope he has another win in him.

2.40 - What a Friend - I have seen it tipped up a fair bit with Cooldine, just think this horse is slightly better value.

4.00 - Pause and Clause - has some good form this year. Good e/w shout imo.

4.40 - Higgy's Boy - again some good form and shouldn't be far away.

Could do with a winner or two today. C'mon baby!!!

Darlie

I fear I may have used up my quota of results yesterday, after having backed Quevega, Garde Champetre to win and Planet of Sound, Celestial Halo and Forpaddy each way.
However I think Big Zeb is as sure to place in the QM as Master Minded is to win it. With 1/4 odds available, the each way and place only returns are better than MM to win!
I've also a good feeling about Karabak.
I'm struggling to make my mind up in the other races, though. Will Cooldines jumping stand up to this test? Is the jockey the only reason that Shinrock is still at 14's?
I'm going to have small money on Drumconvis, Casey Jones, Great Endeavor, Ronaldo Des Mottes and Dunguib.

And if like me you are looking for some each way value today, just got a mail from PAddy Power, they are offering 5 places in the Coral and 4 places in the Bumper. Any other good offers out there?

siobhan.murphy

my lucky 15
Sicilian Secret 5/1
Petit Robin 14/1
Carruthers 11/2
Karabak 7/2

rovers_runner

2:05 BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 5f
Diamond Harry 9 - 2

2:40 RSA CHASE (GRADE 1) 3m 1/2f
Cooldine 4 - 1

4:00 CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f
Psycho 15 - 2


4:40 FRED WINTER JUVENILE H'CAP HURDLE 2m 1/2f
Alexander Severus 5 - 1

Lucky 15 with the above.

Going to lay Master Minded, also may back either Well Chief or ScotsIrish eachway.

k_d

1.30 Parsons pistol win

2.05 Junior e/w

2.40 Well chief E/W

3.20 Chief yeoman e/w

4.00 higgys boy

4.40 shinrock paddy e/w

Thanks to punjabi for pulling me out of a hole yesturday

Wichita Lineman is a NR in the 1:30 so going to put money on Parson's Pistol to win.

mike65

e/w players for today

Parsons Pistol 1.30
Mad Max 2.05
What A Friend 2.40
Santas Son 3.20
Psycho 4.00
Mr Thriller 4.40
Quinola Des Obeaux 5.15

m3.

Alexander Severus
cooldine
master minded
Quinola Des Obeaux