Metro North under consideration

T Corolla

OH GOD

amacachi

Eh?

T Corolla

The country is about to go to the wall and the biggest white elephant in the states history is going to push over the edge. The AIB bank is writing off 1.8 billion of bad debts on the same day. Could we go ahead and start mining the gold from Monaghan and put the west of Ireland up for sale to pay for some this FARSE rail line I mean 5billion for 18 miles of railway it makes the WRC look like someone yearly bonus! Noel Dempsey please throw this one out and build the rail line to Navan instead and give the people of Meath back their lives

L1011

Build the rail line to Navan? Why bother, there IS a rail line to Navan as it is.... which isn't going to need a feat of engineering to get around a sodding motorway in the way of the alignment either.

Also, last time I checked MN was to be PPP meaning its not like we're paying for it in one go or anything close to. Assuming a hypothetical recovery in 5 years (I'm not holding my breath) I doubt the cost of the PPP for that time would have paid for reopening the MGWR Navan line.

TheIrishGrover

T Corolla wrote: »

OH GOD

Yes my son?

noelfirl

Michael O'Leary once said described Metro North as a waste of money summarising that nobody would want to use it to get to the airport at 4am. At that moment, I actually wanted to punch him, because nobody has ever misrepresented a public transport project to that extent.

The simple reality is that both Metro North and the Interconnector/DART 1 & 2 must be built for this city to start having anything resembling a multi-modal transport network that could provide a viable alternative to the car and bus.

T Corolla

MYOB wrote: »

Build the rail line to Navan? Why bother, there IS a rail line to Navan as it is.... which isn't going to need a feat of engineering to get around a sodding motorway in the way of the alignment either.

Also, last time I checked MN was to be PPP meaning its not like we're paying for it in one go or anything close to. Assuming a hypothetical recovery in 5 years (I'm not holding my breath) I doubt the cost of the PPP for that time would have paid for reopening the MGWR Navan line.

Are you referring to the navan drogheda line.That line does not have a high enough population on its route versus the clonsilla navan route and there is no more open slots on the northern line to acconodate additional services You are correct that it is an option but have one question is that line in state ownership or does the tara mine group. It does not make sence for the state to maintain a line that is privatly operated. I also read that the MN will have a train every four minutes is that justifable. Apart from the fact that the luas ended up costing twice as much as it initally forcasted do we need it could we just not lay two more tracks on the northern line for a substancial less amount of money.

L1011

The line is, obviously, in CIE ownership. Why on earth would Tara Mines own it? Where on earth did you get that idea form?

The MGWR Navan line IS being reopened to Pace - there is minimal population based between here and Navan itself, only really Dunshauglin with its what, 5,000 people?

"Lack" of slots on the Northern Line is likely an overblown situation; we were told there were no more slots on the Western Commuter line yet they managed to throw on a large number of extra trains per hour during the Ryder Cup. Strange that...

jrar

MYOB wrote: »

The line is, obviously, in CIE ownership. Why on earth would Tara Mines own it? Where on earth did you get that idea form?

Who mentioned Tara Mines (apart from you) ?!?

OP I think was referring to the need for the recent Monaghan gold mine to be rich enough in gold deposits to fund the MN i.e. we cannot afford it from current exchequer funds

BluntGuy

Why is MN the one getting so much press coverage? What about Interconnector. That's the more important of the two.

...I mean 5 billion for 18 miles of railway it makes the WRC look like someone yearly bonus! Noel Dempsey please throw this one out and build the rail line to Navan instead and give the people of Meath back their lives

5 billion for an 18 km line isn't unusual in an urban setting. Besides, the benefits aren't based on how much track you get out of it, but the number of passengers you carry and the number of cars you get off the roads.

Yes, you could probably build 100 km in the middle of Ireland for that cash, but you'd carry 50 people a day and achieve nothing.

MN isn't a white elephant IMO, but Interconnector is much more important.

adamski8

cool something for the northside and jobs!

T Corolla

Do you believe that there is a case for the Navan Drogheda line versus the Clonsilla Navan IMO that northern line is already well served with dart commuter and intercity services and the orignal line should be opened. I assume that when the line is built to Navan the government plan to continue the line to Cavan maybe even Derry via enniskillen since there is a double track been laid to Navan.

L1011

jrar wrote: »

Who mentioned Tara Mines (apart from you) ?!?

OP I think was referring to the need for the recent Monaghan gold mine to be rich enough in gold deposits to fund the MN i.e. we cannot afford it from current exchequer funds

Read the post ABOVE mine, please. Carefully.

IIMII

I love it when this forum explodes without warning..!:D

covert

MYOB wrote: »

The line is, obviously, in CIE ownership. Why on earth would Tara Mines own it? Where on earth did you get that idea form?

The MGWR Navan line IS being reopened to Pace - there is minimal population based between here and Navan itself, only really Dunshauglin with its what, 5,000 people?

"Lack" of slots on the Northern Line is likely an overblown situation; we were told there were no more slots on the Western Commuter line yet they managed to throw on a large number of extra trains per hour during the Ryder Cup. Strange that...

Ehhh.... no they didn't, they just ran the empty ones that went out to Maynooth in the morning for commuters in-service instead.

L1011

covert wrote: »

Ehhh.... no they didn't, they just ran the empty ones that went out to Maynooth in the morning for commuters in-service instead.

They ran significantly more than that. Can't find the schedules online but there was a number of additional departures during both peaks that amazingly cannot be put in to the schedule when there isn't a special event for which you can charge exorbitant ticket prices (20 euro return IIRC).

Some of the capacity issues on the network are invented to try and force through funding for the resignalling - which they've now got.

T Corolla

IIMII wrote: »

I love it when this forum explodes without warning..!:D

Its all good clean fun and no one gets hurt tomorrows topic !!!

dead air

Wouldn't say it's a farce at all. Given our economic situation, this could be quite beneficial. It is said that the construction of Metro North will create up to 7,000 direct jobs.

Also, it is proprosed that the project be paid for under a public-private partnership over 25 years. Granted, due the recession passenger numbers may be lower than expected (up to 300,000 lower according to Irish Times). We have seen the great success of the Tallaght Luas line with greater than expected passenger numbers after it opened and with MN serving Ballymun and Swords, two well populated areas, you could argue that it will part pay for itself over that timespan. Metro North isn't being proposed solely for the Airport, it has wider economic and infrastructural benefits than that.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0302/1224242083966.html
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0302/metro.html

Regarding the Navan line, given the momentum of that project (with phase one already under construction to Dunboyne and IE announcing the order of trains for Navan in a press release today), the Navan rail link seems a dead cert for now.

Amtmann

IIMII wrote: »

I love it when this forum explodes without warning..!:D

I agree! This forum is actually one of the most civil and peaceable I've ever encountered.

Anyway, back on topic...

thebman

On topic, it is an investment that will pay itself off unlike a lot of the money that mysteriously went into our health service with no improvements in service worth mentioning.

The fact that it is a PPP that won't result in a toll half way along it is also commendable IMO. This is a very good thing for the country and I hope it does go ahead as long as the line it takes makes sense :P

These projects will create jobs and since its PPP, some of them at least will be in the private sector and not coming out of government funds when we can't afford to.

What is the downside?

antoinolachtnai

Just because it's a PPP doesn't mean the government doesn't have to pay for it. It does, it's really just a matter of how the cost is structured. It's a sort of operating lease rather than a straight-up loan.

Polar101

MYOB wrote: »

They ran significantly more than that. Can't find the schedules online but there was a number of additional departures during both peaks that amazingly cannot be put in to the schedule when there isn't a special event for which you can charge exorbitant ticket prices (20 euro return IIRC).

To be fair, the Ryder Cup was in 2006 when the Maynooth service was much worse - and there were no Docklands services on the line. For example, there were just a few trains on Sundays.

Stupido

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

Just because it's a PPP doesn't mean the government doesn't have to pay for it. It does, it's really just a matter of how the cost is structured. It's a sort of operating lease rather than a straight-up loan.

so what is wrong with the government paying for it out of the pockets of commuters for 25 years? The cash won't even pass through leinster house. How does that feck up our dire finances of today?

People still believe that the government is going to write a cheque for €5billion for this project...................do these people know what a PPP is???

Get real everybody. It is you and me who will pay for this thing everytime we buy a ticket.

ukraine_orange

I'd like to see Metro North built, as well as a few other Metro lines. I'd prefer if the MN would continue on and service the south suburbs which aren't serviced by Luas, such as Harold's Cross/Terenure and Rathfarnham.

That said, I guess it's a good place to start.

But knowing this country, they probably won't see the logic behind starting the project now (logic being that it will create a lot of jobs etc.).

jdivision

The price is expected to come in about 33% below budget, it will create a lot of jobs for people who would otherwise be on the dole costing the Government money. It will also make Dublin work, the difference it will make in terms of taking traffic off the roads will be amazing. All people want to know is they'll get to work in x number of minutes instead of hoping that the traffic doesn't stall etc. I hope they do it, but because it's a project in Dublin I don't know if it will.

thebman

Stupido wrote: »

so what is wrong with the government paying for it out of the pockets of commuters for 25 years? The cash won't even pass through leinster house. How does that feck up our dire finances of today?

People still believe that the government is going to write a cheque for €5billion for this project...................do these people know what a PPP is???

Get real everybody. It is you and me who will pay for this thing everytime we buy a ticket.

Agree and this ignores that it is going to be more beneficial to the every day lives of more people in the country than a lot of other government expenditure.

It is infrastructure, it is an investment not a loss making venture. It will pay itself off.

loyatemu

T Corolla wrote: »

I assume that when the line is built to Navan the government plan to continue the line to Cavan maybe even Derry via enniskillen since there is a double track been laid to Navan.

you assume wrong - there are no such plans. There is a (now disused) line from Navan to Kingscourt in Cavan but its not even planned to reopen this (it doesn't go anywhere useful anyway). Continuing onto Enniskillen and Derry would be an enormous undertaking (and there's already a line between Dublin and Derry).

IIMII

Plus the former line north through Kells and Oldcastle was far superior to the Kingscourt line (which is a bit of a roller-coaster) so if going northwest ever came up I'd say it would make far more sense to go the Kell's route. The Kingscourt line is really only fit for freight - it has only two underbridges along the entire 20 miles for example, and wouldn't be fit for speeds of even 50mph tbh. The old Kells route between Navan and Kells was one of the most level in Ireland on the other hand and even the climbs/falls towards Oldcastle were much better engineered than anything on the Kingscourt line. I think there is sometimes confusion between the actual rudimentary Kingscourt line and the original proposal for the Belfast-Dublin line to run via Navan which was abandoned in favour of a coastal route linking the ports. Anyway there is more interest in the WRC in the north-west than there is in a link to Dublin

gjim

Stupido wrote: »

Get real everybody. It is you and me who will pay for this thing everytime we buy a ticket.

Ticket revenue is not even going to come close.

Given the expected passenger numbers (30-40 million a year) and the cost (4 billion, say) and current commercial interest rates (10% since it's a PPP), the INTEREST ALONE on this project will cost up to 12 euros per passenger journey. That's just the cost of finance - that's before you pay off any of the 4 billion capital cost or contribute to the running cost. This can be discounted of course as presumably the 4 billion wont be borrowed and spent right at the start but I estimate over 25 years you are looking at about 10 euros per passenger per journey to break even. This is on average - it includes short journeys and long ones.

Back in boom days, you could just about justify this spend by being optimistic about passenger numbers but with a contracting economy and a falling population, this supporting justification is no longer available. You could also perversely justify it (I did at least) by seeing waste in other government spending and convince yourself that at least the money would deliver something tangible to the citizens of the country instead of seemingly disappearing into a black hole like the health system.

To make this project close to viable requires: an increase in projected passenger numbers, a reduction in construction/running costs and/or a reduction in the cost of finance.

There is little at this stage that can be done about the first item (passenger numbers) without going back to the drawing board which would mean putting back the project years. However I don't think the current line is optimal. For example I would have thought it vital to have it integrate with the northern commuter/intercity/DART lines at its northern terminus preferably somewhere with an existing population centre like Donabate. This would have considerably increased the utility of the line: for example the the P&R near the M1 could have served both the metro and the northern DART and it would have also helped distribute the commuter loadings in to and out of the city centre from the northern suburbs. At the southern end, I think a city centre terminus is limiting also and would have thought terminating around Harold's Cross or Rathmines would have significantly increased the utility (and thus passenger numbers) of the line.

Regarding reducing the construction/running costs, I'm not sure there's huge scope for savings here as I assume that the RPA have gone for a basic utilitarian approach to the system - this isn't going to rival the Moscow subway in terms of chandeliers and the like. Basically, given a spec. - the market, through a tendering process, determines the construction cost. Similarly I don't see that huge savings are possible in the running cost - most stations will be unmanned and barrierless.

Paradoxically you can save money on the cost of finance aspect by taking the provision of finance OUT of the tender and having the government pay/borrow for the project. Even in the current climate, the government can borrow at about half the cost that a private consortium can.

Just for the sake of it; assuming an extra 1/2 billion to bend the line to Donabate at the north and extend it to Harold's Cross on the south side, an extra 15 million passengers a year as a result and public rather than private financing, you get under €5 per passenger journey over 25 years, considerably less than what is proposed. €5 per passenger journey is just about justifiable in my mind in terms of the social benefits delivered.

This is all moot 'though - we never seem to do this sort of cost/benefit analysis in this country even for projects as large as this one. Benefits are assessed by looking at the PR and political returns and costs are obfuscated as much as possible - for example by using PPP financing (i.e. "hire purchase"), tax breaks (making the cost impossible to predict) or just not talking about the costs at all (head in the sand approach).

Stupido

gjim wrote: »

Ticket revenue is not even going to come close.

Look at the road ppp's if you are going to make all those economic claims.

Tolls are similar to ticket prices, yet the amount of cars using them is a fraction of the number of passangers who will use the metro.

So take a road scheme and multiply the numbers....and guess what???

not so expensive after all!

IIMII

Even tolled road schemes don't cover the costs. Take the M3 with 2 tolls - I can't remember the figures but even with double tolls the road will not cover anywhere near it's entire construction costs

murphaph

IIMII wrote: »

Even tolled road schemes don't cover the costs. Take the M3 with 2 tolls - I can't remember the figures but even with double tolls the road will not cover anywhere near it's entire construction costs

Perhaps that's because the land is purchased by the state before the concessionaire has to spend any money on building the road. The concessionaire doesn't get any more money for a toll road and must maintain it for the concession period so they must cover their costs and make a profit.

IIMII

Fair point. Maybe. I never looked into it.

BluntGuy

Even tolled road schemes don't cover the costs. Take the M3 with 2 tolls - I can't remember the figures but even with double tolls the road will not cover anywhere near it's entire construction costs

No they don't, and let me give you some clear numerical evidence:

If the NRA was to have undertaken the Waterford Bypass using public money with PPP assitance, it would've costed 600 million (excluding initial costs for ground investigations etc.)

Using the PPP model - if you do the maths, we'll end up forking out close to 2 billion for the Waterford Bypass over the contract period. Do you really think that's going to come from toll revenue alone?

Amtmann

Well, if it gets built I hope they take suitable precautions. The Cologne archive building collapsed today, and it has been suggested that underground railway works going on nearby may have had something to do with it. The biggest archive in Germany, with over a 1,000 years of history inside it, reduced to rubble. Nine people are missing, and it's after severely fvcking up my work for the next four years.

GerardKeating

ukraine_orange wrote: »

I'd like to see Metro North built, as well as a few other Metro lines. I'd prefer if the MN would continue on and service the south suburbs which aren't serviced by Luas, such as Harold's Cross/Terenure and Rathfarnham.

That's planned, called "Metro South"..

ukraine_orange wrote: »

That said, I guess it's a good place to start.

But knowing this country, they probably won't see the logic behind starting the project now (logic being that it will create a lot of jobs etc.).

dowlingm

GerardKeating wrote: »

That's planned, called "Metro South"..

Hope you're right - would make way more sense than trying to fit a LUAS from Rathfarnham and would pull some riders off the inner part of the Green Line catchment and reduce crowding there.

@T Corolla, next time you're going to write in Size 7 type, get Firefox 3 and a dictionary extension so you don't misspell "farce" in enormous letters.

Cool Mo D

dowlingm wrote: »

Hope you're right - would make way more sense than trying to fit a LUAS from Rathfarnham and would pull some riders off the inner part of the Green Line catchment and reduce crowding there.

@T Corolla, next time you're going to write in Size 7 type, get Firefox 3 and a dictionary extension so you don't misspell "farce" in enormous letters.

One of the nice things about having a metro line in place is that you can extend it a couple of stations at a time without a massive investment, which makes it easier to get money from the Government. So, once Metro North is done, it could be extended to Harolds Cross in one go, then maybe Terenure/Crumlin area, later out to Tallaght. Course, you have to start off with a fairly significant section tho.

Aard

GerardKeating wrote: »

That's planned, called "Metro South"..

Is there any information online about this?

dowlingm

Cool Mo D wrote: »

One of the nice things about having a metro line in place is that you can extend it a couple of stations at a time without a massive investment

You have to plan forward for that though, designing the new line and doing geological and EIS work as the previous stretch is built, not just drawing lines on a map and calling it a plan which is easy for the beancounters to dismiss. That way when the money becomes available the existing plans just need to be verified to ensure any adjoining changes like new buildings won't cause issues. Above all the urge to sell the TBMs has to be avoided, as happened in Toronto to fill a budget hole on the cheap and now new ones have to be bought for the new Spadina Extension.

is_that_so

I think there are some arguments in favour but with a dwindling pot and the more pressing problems of how to get large scale unemployment down or right the public coffers the MN does look extremely expensive. It is also very Dublin-centric and does nothing beyond addressing, admittedly, serious problems anywhere outside a narrow corridor on the north side of the city.

Even with the promised 7,000 jobs, at most the exchequer would get back would be about €100 million a year (DCU economist on radio said this). On balance I would say it is likely to be mothballed and I think that the interconnector, which is much cheaper,offers a more justifible option at the moment. But even that looks all about Dublin.

markpb

is_that_so wrote: »

I think there are some arguments in favour but with a dwindling pot and the more pressing problems of how to get large scale unemployment down or right the public coffers the MN does look extremely expensive.

It's a PPP - meaning almost nothing has to be paid by the taxpayer until the day it opens. Since that's at least five years down the line, the finances today have nothing to do with it.

paulm17781

is_that_so wrote: »

I think there are some arguments in favour but with a dwindling pot and the more pressing problems of how to get large scale unemployment down or right the public coffers the MN does look extremely expensive. It is also very Dublin-centric and does nothing beyond addressing, admittedly, serious problems anywhere outside a narrow corridor on the north side of the city.

Even with the promised 7,000 jobs, at most the exchequer would get back would be about €100 million a year (DCU economist on radio said this). On balance I would say it is likely to be mothballed and I think that the interconnector, which is much cheaper,offers a more justifible option at the moment. But even that looks all about Dublin.

I hate this "all about Dublin" logic. The IC brings people from Kildare, through the city. It will increase frequency from Maynooth through the city. It will also give more room for trains from Navan.

MN will benefit these same people and people from everywhere by getting easier access to Dublin airport, the biggest airport in the country, that most of the population use.

What this obsession with "Dublin gets everything" is about I don't know. Dublin has the most investment because it has the most people. Dublin needs these two projects.

is_that_so

paulm17781 wrote: »

I hate this "all about Dublin" logic. The IC brings people from Kildare, through the city. It will increase frequency from Maynooth through the city. It will also give more room for trains from Navan.

MN will benefit these same people and people from everywhere by getting easier access to Dublin airport, the biggest airport in the country, that most of the population use.

What this obsession with "Dublin gets everything" is about I don't know. Dublin has the most investment because it has the most people. Dublin needs these two projects.

As a Dub but no longer living there I know that it is far too big and has been for a long, long time. Historically it did "get everything" to the detriment of the rest of the country. BTW I did say that I thought the IC was a good idea but not the MN. What is likely to happen now and quite frankly what should have happened long before now is proper CBA of all proposed infrastructure schemes.

€5 billion would build a hell of a lot of schools, refurbish countless others and in a lot more places. In some respects this is a much better investment in our future. It would provide huge numbers of training places for the army of unemployed, develop R&D and provide opportunities for us to upskill as a nation. Against that what "Dublin needs" may not be enough.

is_that_so

markpb wrote: »

It's a PPP - meaning almost nothing has to be paid by the taxpayer until the day it opens. Since that's at least five years down the line, the finances today have nothing to do with it.

Even so the question is whether we should be facing that cost anyway. The parlous state of our public finances for the next 5-8 years suggests that it is a good time now to take a look at it. Personally wonder about the overall effectiveness of PPPs especially the government attention to value for money. Often seemed that the P2 got an awful lot more out it than P1(The taxpayer).

murphaph

is_that_so wrote: »

Historically [Dublin] did "get everything" to the detriment of the rest of the country.

Did it? Why does Dublin have such an infrastructural defecit compared to pretty much every other EU capital (even the 'poor' ones)? I don't think the country seriously invested in anything anywhere until the last 10 years, apart from electrification.

is_that_so

murphaph wrote: »

Did it? Why does Dublin have such an infrastructural defecit compared to pretty much every other EU capital (even the 'poor' ones)? I don't think the country seriously invested in anything anywhere until the last 10 years, apart from electrification.

By historically I meant everything not just infrastructure. And I agree with you. Infrastructure strikes me as a word that we discovered in the nineties. However I do think MN is a project that needs a very close look because of where we find ourselves.
Even if we were in a "normal" recession like the rest of the world I think one would still have to look at priorities. Current circumstances dictate that trade offs are necessary, infrastructural deficit or not.

Stupido

Metro South is the conversion of the green line to metro by extending the tunnel so it comes up at around beechwood. The level crossings will be closed to sandyford. It then becomes a light rail on the B1 extension (as MN will become once north of the airport).

It will then be called Metro line 1 or A or something stupid in Irish.

The line to Terenure/Tallaght would be a branch of this line, probably from the canal. Unlikely to extend beyond SSG as this would necessitate a third station level (too much engineering methinks).

Above poster is correct. This is the first phase. it is easy to extend away from the city centre once the basic part is in.

DWCommuter

Stupido wrote: »

This is the first phase. it is easy to extend away from the city centre once the basic part is in.

In 2145.

dowlingm

Stupido wrote: »

Metro South is the conversion of the green line to metro by extending the tunnel so it comes up at around beechwood. The level crossings will be closed to sandyford. It then becomes a light rail on the B1 extension (as MN will become once north of the airport).

What happens to BX in that scenario, and how much disruption will it cause to join the end of MN to Line B? That's the expensive bit from my perspective.

Stupido

not at all. The tunnel Boring machines will still be in the ground, just continue them on to Beachwood and build a portal.

BX will probably continue to harcourt and join a new line coming in along the canal/SCR or from elsewhere.

The city centre luas lines will be used by other trams when (and if) they are developed.

I imagine SSG will become a hub for a number of new routes.