Weather forecast and outlook for the coming Weeks

Pangea

Hey thought i would take the initiative and open this thread,
Can u experts start posting next weeks models and discuss them ,I heard its possible it maybe another cold week

ninebeanrows

Its gonna be the February of discontent.


Remaining cold with arctic and Siberian blasts throughout, strikes and economic meltdown, get those tins of bins ready.

A cold cold February

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Its gonna be the February of discontent.


Remaining cold with arctic and Siberian blasts throughout, strikes and economic meltdown, get those tins of bins ready.

A cold cold February

looking at netweather and other sites doesn't seem to be too wintry for next week yet..cold alright but nothing like this week's action. any major weather systems potentially on the horizon?

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

looking at netweather and other sites doesn't seem to be too wintry for next week yet..cold alright but nothing like this week's action. any major weather systems potentially on the horizon?

just was well, as i'd say some here need a week off:pac:- if the models are correct from the middle of February onwards it should be quite wintry again.
i know people say it's all fi, but this cold spell was fi and it came off.

Redsunset

another potential something special fi chart.strat warming influence kicking in maybe?its due to show effect mid feb.high headin for greenland

munsterlegend

Evelyn Cusack in the six o'clock forecast seems to thisn sunday could be a snow event..she didn't say exactly where though suppose depends where it meets the Artic air..any of the experts have any thoughts/predictions on this or on next weeks weather?

darkman2

ATM it is looking like a snow to rain event (staying as snow in the North) but it's still too far for absolute specifics.

Jackeenboy

I heard on BBC that the next few weeks will stay cold with wintry showers but there will be no prolonged spells of snow like this week(hope thats not true). Could we still better what we had this week and have more days off ?? The snow on Sunday, will it reach Dublin and fall as snow???

Pangea

Indeed its going to be another cold week next week as just said by met eireann ,cold spell lasting until the end of next week evelyn said!

munsterlegend

netweather have the temperatures getting a lot milder on Thursday next with it up to 10/11 degress in some places. Is this likely or is there still a degree of uncertainty? I also see meteireann have a risk of snow in the south on Monday/Tuesday.

DOCARCH

Sunday could well be interesting, as DM2 said could well be snow to rain event. Alos keep an eye out for Monday night/Tuesday morning - another snow event for the east???

munsterlegend

I like the look of this Netweather update for the second half of the month:

Snow, Ice Risk Ongoing
(Updated: Friday 06/02 08:58)
Photo courtesy of Persian Paladin This is certainly now the most wintry period in all the time Netweather has been online (since 2003), and it's going to continue into next week, plus with many long range signals pointing toward the possibility of the second half of the month being even colder it could turn out to be an extraordinary February 2009...

Looking at the here and now though, more snow is falling this morning across parts of the Midlands and the south this morning, it's rain and sleet the further south and east you are, but as the band slides away southeastward during the day it will increasingly fall as snow, even down into the far southeast corner later in the day.

The other point of real interest today is Scotland with heavy snow showers moving down from the north, particularly but certainly not exclusively through the northern and also eastern half of the country. Some quite significant accumulations are possible in some areas.

Overnight tonight the showers continue in the north, but the rain, sleet and snow will clear the south, leaving many parts dry and clear with temperatures dropping away and leaving some very icy surfaces. Into Saturday it's another cold one with snow showers moving down both the east and the west of the country - drier and brighter in between with just a scattering of mainy light showers. After a widespread and hard frost overnight, during Sunday an Atlantic weather system moves in from the west, bringing yet more snow on it's leading edge.

Keep up with the very latest during the cold spell using the Netweather weather radar - updated every 5 minutes and including weather type detection which shows whether rain, sleet or snow is falling, it's the sure way to stay totally up to date - click here for more info.

munsterlegend

the met office site shows an update for more wintry weather next week with showers coming south and overall cold and unsettled. have any of the experts any good charts to whet the appetite? need some hope for some snow after the excitment of this week!

mike65

If wetterzentral can be trusted then next week will be milder (10+) from wednesday

SmokeyBaconDan

It is going to be a very cold month. Its really kicked in

Gonzo

yeah it looks like this cold snap comes to a sudden end on tuesday night, Wednesday with temperatures back into double figures by Wednesday evening.

nacho libre

I thought it was a bit rash of Evelyn last night to commit herself, this far out, to it staying cold until the end of next week. what a difference a day makes.

munsterlegend

Gonzo wrote: »

yeah it looks like this cold snap comes to a sudden end on tuesday night, Wednesday with temperatures back into double figures by Wednesday evening.

yes but it looks to be colder then again on Thursday? the met office on the uk have it cold all of next week...Wednesday goes against Evelyn's predictions from last night!

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

I thought it was a bit rash of Evelyn last night to commit herself, this far out, to it staying cold until the end of next week. what a difference a day makes.

what makes you so certain that she will be wrong? i honestly don't know how to get and see future charts to make my mind up, only rely on sites like meteireann, met office and netweather.

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

what makes you so certain that she will be wrong? i honestly don't know how to get and see future charts to make my mind up, only rely on sites like meteireann, met office and netweather.

to be honest i'm not certain she. some of the models are showing a brief milder incursion for midweek. however, i'd trust what the uk met service says. so if they are sticking with it being cold overall i'd be confident that is what's going to happen.

Gonzo

could it be a case tho of Ireland in milder double figures and mainland uk still freezing by next wednesday? Sometimes the weather between the east coast of ireland and mainland uk are worlds apart, particulary when it comes to cold snaps and heatwaves.

nacho libre

the uk met shows ireland staying cold.

the ecmf and gfs models are poles apart on what's going to happen from wednesday onwards.

if the ECMWF is correct it means Northern Blocking and Continued colder and wintry incursions.

if the GFS is right then its a crappy High scenario, with mild southwesterlies.


obviously mike65 hopes the GFS is right:p

MUSEIST

nacho libre wrote: »

the uk met shows ireland staying cold.

the ecmf and gfs models are poles apart on what's going to happen from wednesday onwards.

if the ECMWF is correct it means Northern Blocking and Continued colder and wintry incursions.

if the GFS is right then its a crappy High scenario, with mild southwesterlies.


obviously mike65 hopes the GFS is right:p

i agree- the gfs has been all over the place recently and i would trust the ecm more. also bear in mind that met eireann will use the ecm aswell.

munsterlegend

looking at weather online through netweather site, the prediction is that it will get milder later in the week..is this likely per the experts viewing of the charts?

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

looking at weather online through netweather site, the prediction is that it will get milder later in the week..is this likely per the experts viewing of the charts?

damn it. the gfs is still insisting on it getting milder.
however, on a more optimistic note the ecm is still predicting the cold to persist past wednesday with a delicious set up for the weekend which could mean snow for many. as has been pointed out i'd put more trust in what the ecm predicts but this could be the one time the gfs turns out to be right.

Redsunset

my opinion on the different models -
ecm is much more reliable for seeking trends fi.
gfs is a big pile of poo at the moment,just can't handle the prospect of a blocking.only trust it to +48.
i've hightlighted whats expected soon in the strat warming thread.i believe it.so im not too bothered with the models at the mo.only whats really gonna happen on sunday.the way i see it panning out is in the morning all can really expect some snow and with it gradually getting more mixed as it pushed through.not really expecting it to be very heavy,i could be wrong.def high ground will get another pasting,and we've got a nice few highlanders on here:D.

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

my opinion on the different models -
ecm is much more reliable for seeking trends fi.
gfs is a big pile of poo at the moment,just can't handle the prospect of a blocking.only trust it to +48.
i've hightlighted whats expected soon in the strat warming thread.i believe it.so im not too bothered with the models at the mo.only whats really gonna happen on sunday.the way i see it panning out is in the morning all can really expect some snow and with it gradually getting more mixed as it pushed through.not really expecting it to be very heavy,i could be wrong.def high ground will get another pasting,and we've got a nice few highlanders on here:D.

yeah, obviously met eireann don't think it's going to be heavy or they won't have said something about accumulations. it must be a weak front but still i thought the cold polar air might pep it up as they met resulting in heavy falls in places.

Pangea

Still waiting on some model updates lol, what about for mid february?
Word has it ,it will be cold ,so can anyone throw some pictures this way?

Redsunset

SWEET AS A NUT!!!!! JUST LOOK AT THAT BLOCK.TIME FOR EAST TO GET OUT OF REVERSE AND SLAP HER INTO WARP SPEED CAPTAIN.:D
AND BEFORE I HEAR OH ITS WAY FI.STOP AND THINK FOR A MIN AND LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE.HAV JUST POSTED A GREAT EXPLAINATION ON THE STRAT WARMING THREAD.

So in laymans terms, would all this strat stuff, mean we are about too get more snow, or just colder? Im getting the feeling people are getting excited ...:)

Im hoping the answer is we'll get more snow for a few days

Redsunset

Jake1 wrote: »

So in laymans terms, would all this strat stuff, mean we are about too get more snow, or just colder? Im getting the feeling people are getting excited ...:)

Im hoping the answer is we'll get more snow for a few days

WELL I THINK ITS PLAIN FOR ALL TO SEE THAT IM VERY EXCITED BOUT THIS.IT WILL DEF MEAN COLDER BUT NEVER GUARANTEED SNOW.WE'RE JUST WAITING NOW FOR THE TIDE TO TURN.:D

Thanks a million. You guys have played a blinder all week.
Fingers crossed.

darkman2

Im not going to post the charts this far out but the models are suggesting the start of what could be a far more potent cold snap then we just had from next weekend. Will certainly have to be watched. Another Easterly may well be on the way.

Redsunset

darkman2 wrote: »

Im not going to post the charts this far out but the models are suggesting the start of what could be a far more potent cold snap then we just had from next weekend. Will certainly have to be watched. Another Easterly may well be on the way.

YES LOOKS LIKE GFS IS STARTING TO AGREE WITH ECM.FIERCE BATTLE BETWEEN EAST AND WEST AT +144 WITH EAST WINNING.AH BLESS:D

Pangea

darkman2 wrote: »

Im not going to post the charts this far out but the models are suggesting the start of what could be a far more potent cold snap then we just had from next weekend. Will certainly have to be watched. Another Easterly may well be on the way.

Mixed feeling from me , I want another cold spell ,but il be away for 7 days in another country from wednesday week, ahh i dont wana miss the next cold spell.

could someone tell me what FI means please?

Darwin

FI = Fantasy Island..i.e. the forecast date is not within a reliable timeframe to be considered wholly (or sometimes even part) accurate.

Darwin

Darwin wrote: »

FI = Fantasy Island..i.e. the forecast date is not within a reliable timeframe to be considered wholly (or sometimes even part) accurate.

Oh okay, thank you

Speaking of fantasy island...

Theres a whole week in the ensembles of -10 850 air for Dublin with majority ensemble support from 3 days time.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

I wouldnt like to be a forecaster these days.
Anything beyond 48hrs is a difficult call.
Even day to day stuff is a difficult call at the moment given our air supply isnt doing what it normally does on account of the Atlantic mixing not having the usual quick effect.

200motels

These look interesting it looks like it's going to get milder towards the end of the week.

Elmo5

Hi everyone,

Am very curious to know how the second half of february is going to turn out. Is this cold spell going to continue with the potential for more snow?

I've been having a look a Netweather's forecast for Dublin and after this week, there seems to be quite a bit of precipitation forecast with low temps.

On some of the NW forum threads, it seems to suggest that the stratospheric warming effects are going to hold well into March.

Thank you!

Pangea

I hope it snows , last year in leterkenny we had snow in april , so never too late!

ninebeanrows

Signals now suggest that at last milder weather will start to push into the country towards the weekend.

Temperatures will likely rise to 10c in the southwest during Friday but it will remain cold in the east with temps nearer 1-2c with outbreaks of some sleet or even snow.

But the mild weather will spread eastwards over the weekend with a steady thaw of snow finally arriving with temperatures ranging between 7-10c.

The further outlook then is for much more settled weather with relatively mild temperatures by day but perhaps frost by night.

Pangea

Weather forecast: Northern Ireland





UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Feb 2009 to Tuesday 24 Feb 2009:

The weather looks set to remain cold and fairly settled through the first half of the period, with a good deal of dry and bright weather by day, and frost and fog patches morning and night. At this stage, prolonged heavy precipitation is thought to be unlikely during the first half of the period, although patchy cloud may bring occasional showers of rain or snow to some areas, especially across eastern Britain. As we head towards next weekend and beyond, the weather is expected to remain cold but turn more unsettled. And with temperatures expected to remain below the seasonal average, there is the potential for more prolonged spells of sleet and snow later in the period, especially towards the north and east.
Updated: 1204 on Tue 10 Feb 2009

ninebeanrows

Absolute chaos on the model front at the moment folks.

Would not want to make a stab at a medium range forecast.

opr

Weathercheck wrote: »

Absolute chaos on the model front at the moment folks.

Would not want to make a stab at a medium range forecast.

Okey Dokey

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055484822

Opr

nacho libre

opr wrote: »

Okey Dokey

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055484822

Opr

perhaps by medium range he means beyond seven days.

MUSEIST

good:p

Gonzo

sounds good. dont mind the mild weather returning as long as its gonna be relatively dry. We havent had a proper dry spell in a long time and could do with alot more time outside:)

Pangea

Gonzo wrote: »

sounds good. dont mind the mild weather returning as long as its gonna be relatively dry. We havent had a proper dry spell in a long time and could do with alot more time outside:)

havnt had a proper dry spell in a long time? U must be having a laugh, it didnt rain from dec 26 till past mid january!!! The longest dry spell i remember in recent times!

snowfan

Pangea wrote: »

havnt had a proper dry spell in a long time? U must be having a laugh, it didnt rain from dec 26 till past mid january!!! The longest dry spell i remember in recent times!

My sentiments exactly Pangea! I thought that post about a dry spell was a laugh - Christmas / New Year to mid Jan 09 was one long dry spell

Regarding the upcoming mild spell, I never thought I would say this but after a full week of Dublin daytime temps maxing at 2oC/3oC and nightime temps of below freezing/ -5oC , a mild spell of weather would be nice

And after the snowfall of last week (4 snowfalls in Dublin in one week), I can honestly say that the novelty factor with snow and ice is well and truly over

I have had my fill of snow and ice for this winter; bring back normality!

SF