Transport 21 - The remake

strassenwolf

It should now be fairly obvious that, while large-scale investment in infrastructure would be very sensible during the current recession, it simply is not going to happen now.

In a normal downturn, borrowing money for capital projects and making use of cheaper labour to build this infrastructure probably would make a lot of sense.

However, this is not a normal downturn.

So Ireland is now faced with a triple whammy, having the most serious downturn anyone remembers, finding it very hard to borrow cash, and having a FF Government.

Could there be a worse combination for the country?

Clearly the interconnector project - which involves forking out 2 billion euro of taxpayers money, which we obviously don't have, and won't have for several years - cannot start to happen for a long time to come.

My guess is that the permission for the current Docklands station will need to be extended, and that an optimistic start date for the Interconnector is around 2014.

David McWilliams also casts doubt upon projects like the metro, in today's Sunday Business post, here.

The original T21 envisaged several flagship projects being built between 2005 and 2015. (Even though Martin Cullen's bravado at the time of the T21 launch should have been a warning to all).

So, in a revised T21, what projects are feasible, and sensible, in the years between now and 2015?

icdg

strassenwolf wrote: »

I
My guess is that the permission for the current Docklands station will need to be extended

Don't know about that - all indications are that Docklands Station's numbers are very low - Irish Rail cut services to the station drastically in the new timetable. Maybe when/if the Meath spur opens these services might have more passengers though (as they won't have the choice of going to the city centre instead).

If they are going to cut things in CIÉ though, first thing they could do is close Phoenix Park, at least temporarly until/if the apartments are more fully occupied. I know its only open a few months but it cannot be making even a fraction of its running costs - I never see any more than one or two people get off there, and oftimes nobody at all gets off. (For goodness sake, Broombridge has bigger customer numbers).

Zebra3

The Interconnector is a must-build. However I can't see this government spending money like that in Dublin and facing a backlash from the parochial inbreds dotted across the state in their one-off houses. :rolleyes:

However neither that nor MN will be cancelled, merely "delayed" while stuff like the Lucan Luas and MW will fade away and never be mentioned again.

Maybe the extension to Navan will happen if both MN and the IC are put on the long finger so the government can say they did something as I assume that would be a fraction of the cost of either of the Big Two.

Maybe we'll be hearing a lot more about the PPT in the near future......

DWCommuter

strassenwolf wrote: »

So, in a revised T21, what projects are feasible, and sensible, in the years between now and 2015?

Great post and glad to see that Im not alone in the real world of hard facts. It was beginning to feel like a very lonely existance for a while.:D

Personally I believe that we have reached a very critical crossroads. Despite not having the money to implement large scale projects, a worsening financial situation and rising unemployment makes the terrain very difficult to evaluate. I think we should be re-examining more cost effective alternatives that can still function behind big budget solutions when they come on stream. So I'll talk rail. A pet project of mine like the Phoenix park tunnel, carrying Kildare line trains to Docklands (after modifications in Docklands, not Glasnevin junction) may not stand up in an era of less jobs and cut backs in Irish Rail. It certainly improves the services on offer and opens up areas like phisboro and cabra to rail transport, but is at the behest of the economic situation. Long term it can serve Connolly etc if the interconnector is built. I mention it because it is cheap enough in the scheme of things and worthwhile.
Similarly Navan via Drogheda has potential to alleviate things in Meath. Its a hell of a lot cheaper than the direct route. A limited service at first due to capacity issues and then a full on service when the interconnector creates capacity.

These two projects bring instant improvements and then fall in with bigger plans if they ever come to fruition. Its such a pity that both IE and the DOT poured scorn on my own particular representations regarding these projects. I did warn them that T21 was dependent on a lot of promise elsewhere and to ignore cheaper and quicker alternatives could possibly leave us with nothing at all if things went pear shaped. Well they have and we now face the possibility of nothing at all in railway terms.

I also think we should use this recession to re-evaluate exactly what we need in terms of public transport. T21 was too fast and loose for my liking.

Sponge Bob

strassenwolf wrote: »

Clearly the interconnector project - which involves forking out 2 billion euro of taxpayers money, which we obviously don't have, and won't have for several years - cannot start to happen for a long time to come.

More like €4bn when you throw in the necessary electricifications and the missing link through Inchicore etc .

My guess is that the permission for the current Docklands station will need to be extended, and that an optimistic start date for the Interconnector is around 2014.

About 2014 would seem correct , yes.

So, in a revised T21, what projects are feasible, and sensible, in the years between now and 2015?

The other substantial project is the 'Atlantic Corridor' road from Derry to Waterford via Cork which is equally strangled for cash .

The lack of money is so great that we will be lucky to get Claregalway bypassed with a 2 lane roundabout infested jobbie of a road this side of 2020 .

Transport in Ireland faces a dead decade on all fronts just like the 1980's

DWCommuter

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Transport in Ireland faces a dead decade on all fronts just like the 1980's

And as soon as we face that reality, the sooner we can start archiving the disasterous performance of the last 3 Governments and using it as a weapon to making sure it doesn't happen again. Money blinded many from the fact that it happened before.

pepsicokeacola

**** it really is a sinking ship. **** it anyway

dowlingm

We can't stop everything. To do that means losing skilled people to Europe and the US (Obama is likely to roll out a large infrastructure package). When some money is found again it will take years to ramp up, like last time. The question is then how many projects can be kept going, perhaps at a slower pace, to keep a core ability in RPA and IE.

LUAS A1, B1, C1 should be finished but of the remaining LUAS projects I think they should proceed BX-D, after that B2, then F and by then (2020?) hopefully sense will have prevailed and Metro North will be extended south toward Terenure a couple of stations at a time so we won't need line E.

For Metro, start Metro North but from the outside in where much of it is green field (cheap) anyway - and at the same time recognise how dumb the original terminus decision was and make the northern terminus Donabate IE Station. All work should stop on Metro West (until it finally dawns on them that it should be no more than a LUAS if not a BRT)

For DART - delay the tunnel if necessary but get electrification started on the current Kildare and Maynooth services and proceed with ordering DARTs. Obviously it wouldn't be as efficient as through service but it would give faster acceleration for the existing inner suburban. Maybe with the longer time horizon the stupid decision to curtail the KRP from the original plan could be revisited.

For IE heavy rail - Athenry-Tuam-Claremorris has to stop dead, the madness has to end. The farce of Nenagh commuter might have to be left half-done and I agree with Derek that Navan may have to be served via Drogheda for now, especially if Tara Mines isn't going to be taking up paths and hammering the track as it does now. Stops that aren't pulling their weight like Woodlawn/Attymon might have to finally go and Ennis-Athenry might find itself with brand new ghost platforms in places like Ardrahan if people don't commit from day one.

Fortunately a lot of necessary work like miniCTC, Limerick Junction, Midleton and Portarlington got done before the crash. The challenge is to find enough money on both sides of the border to clockface Enterprise and keep enough work going to retain skilled design staff - double tracking Maynooth-Mullingar and making capacity improvements to Athenry-Galway and Limerick-Limerick Junction would be my choice there. A long term design for the Bray-Greystones line would be worth getting started too.

amacachi

DWCommuter wrote:

And as soon as we face that reality, the sooner we can start archiving the disasterous performance of the last 3 Governments and using it as a weapon to making sure it doesn't happen again.

Doubt that, governments are remembered for what they did, not what they didn't, and they built some tram lines and motorways. That's what will be remembered, not the fact that they should've done much more.

spacetweek

Great post Dowlingm. This is how I see it going down:

Completed by 2009: Luas C1, Midleton, Lim-Gal
Completed by 2010: Luas B1, Kildare Line, Navan Ph1
Completed by 2011: Luas A1

2010 Metro North (they seem really serious about this now)
2011 Interconnector, Navan Ph 2 (they seem somewhat serious about these two)
2012 Metro West, Luas Lucan, Luas B2, Luas BX+D

The 2011/2012 projects there aren't secure at all. Thankfully most of the 2012 projects aren't particularly important, so I'm not too pessimistic, but we really need to push for the 2011 stuff. I didn't even include Tuam & Claremorris; I assume these are gone.

Totally agree about Metro West - we should build this as a BRT between town centres and then use existing bus facilities in the shopping centres. Then in around 2020 underground the town centre bits and lay rail on the rest, and make it a proper metro. No messing about.

Lucan Luas also needs to be dropped - it will be slower than the bus and Lucan will be served by the future DART to the south and the new bus lanes they're putting on the bypass. Maybe turn that into a BRT too - we need to greatly upgrade Dublin Bus's product.

So, the big 3 are Metro North, IC, and Navan - the rest I'm not bothered by.

amacachi wrote: »

Doubt that, governments are remembered for what they did, not what they didn't, and they built some tram lines and motorways. That's what will be remembered, not the fact that they should've done much more.

Don't agree with that - judging from normal Boards posts, govs are remembered for what they didn't do.

MLM

strassenwolf wrote: »

So, in a revised T21, what projects are feasible, and sensible, in the years between now and 2015?

A proper bus service in the Greater Cork Area. SRR interchanges. Upgrade the N28 to Ringaskiddy.

Zebra3

They really need to get integrated ticketing working.

Maybe open a station on the Maynooth line close to the old Lucan North one and run feeder buses between that new station and Adamstown via all those sprawling estates in Lucan.

Hard to see the justification for the Lucan Luas with both those rail lines passing nearby.

1huge1

amacachi wrote: »

Doubt that, governments are remembered for what they did, not what they didn't, and they built some tram lines and motorways. That's what will be remembered, not the fact that they should've done much more.

That might of been the case in times gone by but never before did we have so much money to play around with, you can't help but take that into account when looking back at the current government.

amacachi

1huge1 wrote: »

That might of been the case in times gone by but never before did we have so much money to play around with, you can't help but take that into account when looking back at the current government.

Short term perhaps, long term I think the money they had to play around with will be forgotten with the list of what they did do.

The majority of the electorate don't really give a shyte anyway.

BluntGuy

amacachi wrote: »

The majority of the electorate don't really give a shyte anyway.

Yep. And it will happen again...

And again...

And again...

People will quickly forget about this if the money starts rolling back in.

murphaph

The bus system (this includes the streets they run on) could be significantly improved in Dublin for relatively little money. Such improvements to street layout/bus lanes/bus priority measures/passenger information systems/proper integrated fares/better routes/better integration with exisiting rail heads would all be very useful if and when the recession ends.

I note that Mr. Peter Malone (chairman of the NRA) made an interesting suggestion to govt. that all transport agencies (CIE/RPA/NRA/DTO/Dublin Bus/Bus Eireann/IE/all airport operators etc. etc.) should be abolished and replaced with a single agency for the whole state. He noted a pretty penny could be saved by eliminating all the boards of management! I never thought I'd hear someone in his position saying such a thing.

Major reform of the DoT is needed before any agencies go though IMO as they are responsible for an awful lot of the mess.

amacachi

murphaph wrote: »

I note that Mr. Peter Malone (chairman of the NRA) made an interesting suggestion to govt. that all transport agencies (CIE/RPA/NRA/DTO/Dublin Bus/Bus Eireann/IE/all airport operators etc. etc.) should be abolished and replaced with a single agency for the whole state. He noted a pretty penny could be saved by eliminating all the boards of management! I never thought I'd hear someone in his position saying such a thing.

Whilst logical, it'll never happen. See HSE.

If it does happen I'll vote 1-3 for the party in power at the following election:pac:

strassenwolf

I messed up - really this thread should have been called:

Transport 21: the seven-inch remix (of the twelve-inch single)

2010 Metro North (they seem really serious about this now)

Serious and all they may be, but it simply is not going to happen in that timeframe. Our government is broke, and any private partner would find it very difficult to raise funds for such a project - given that it's supposed to happen in a country which is broke.

Run_to_da_hills

Transport 21 is dead and gone, It's with O'Leary in the grave.

Nostradamus

Transport21 is history now. There is a global depression coming down the tracks (no pun) very shortly and most people will be more concered about getting food on the table and a roof over their heads than opening rail lines.

We had a terrible government who blew the oppertunity to build an adequet public transport system during the celtic tiger years by catering to vested interests from gombeens to trade unions and now the oppertunity is gone for at least 20 years.

That farce currently taking place in Government Buildings at the moment is trying to make it look like they have a clue when there is a state of panic behind the scenes as Ireland is staring into the economic abyss.

If there is a Transport 22 at some stage they are more likely to be planning to reopen the most of the rail services they will be closing in the next few years rather than building new metros. I hope I am wrong, but I was just looking over the latest data on the world financial markets and we really are in a tunnel (again no pun) with no idea what's ahead other than bad times. It's like the 1930's again without the mixed train on the Wolfhill Branch.

I think we have to forget about our trains for a while. The brown stuff is starting to hit the fan.

IIMII

Nostradamus wrote: »

I think we have to forget about our trains for a while. The brown stuff is starting to hit the fan.

Yup. What's done is done, and unfortunately we didn't build when we could have and should have. We may have some developments even still, and any developments will be a plus, but the reality is the boom was blown, and the bust is here. The only positive is that with land prices falling this will reduce the costs associated with infrastructure projects, as I presume will labour costs. I don't find myself feeling very optimistic about it though I do hope that they move on at least some projects to keep recent-learned expertise in the country

dowlingm

dowlingm wrote:

A long term design for the Bray-Greystones line would be worth getting started too.

Iarnród &#201 wrote: »

DART services to Greystones, and Gorey Commuter and Rosslare Intercity services, face disruption due to the closure of the rail line between Bray and Greystones. This closure is required due to rockfall close to the entrance of the first tunnel on Bray Head, which has the potential to fall on the rail line.

Er... not so long term then...

ihatewallies

Nostradamus wrote: »

Transport21 is history now. There is a global depression coming down the tracks (no pun) very shortly and most people will be more concered about getting food on the table and a roof over their heads than opening rail lines.

We had a terrible government who blew the oppertunity to build an adequet public transport system during the celtic tiger years by catering to vested interests from gombeens to trade unions and now the oppertunity is gone for at least 20 years.

That farce currently taking place in Government Buildings at the moment is trying to make it look like they have a clue when there is a state of panic behind the scenes as Ireland is staring into the economic abyss.

If there is a Transport 22 at some stage they are more likely to be planning to reopen the most of the rail services they will be closing in the next few years rather than building new metros. I hope I am wrong, but I was just looking over the latest data on the world financial markets and we really are in a tunnel (again no pun) with no idea what's ahead other than bad times. It's like the 1930's again without the mixed train on the Wolfhill Branch.

I think we have to forget about our trains for a while. The brown stuff is starting to hit the fan.

Prophets of doom are all basically cowards in my opinion.

Run_to_da_hills

ihatewallies wrote: »

Prophets of doom are all basically cowards in my opinion.

Some people are just afraid to face up to reality. :rolleyes:

Transport 21 is dead and from now onwards we will all witness a decay of the patched up transport 19 & 20.

Sponge Bob

Run_to_da_hills wrote: »

Some people are just afraid to face up to reality. :rolleyes:

Probably afraid to buy a calculator ...never mind face reality .:cool:

The Feb 2009 FF Assault on the h-Interwebby Yoke will fail as surely as their transport policies.

Run_to_da_hills

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Probably afraid to buy a calculator ...never mind face reality .:cool:

Or purchase a newspaper.

marmurr1916

It's not all doom and gloom:

State to spend €607m on regional and local roads
Tim O'BRIEN

THE GOVERNMENT is to spend just over €607 million on the regional and local road network this year, a marginal drop on last year’s record allocation of €618 million.

More than half of the money – some €310 million – is to be used for surface, or “pavement”, restoration of the network, which represents 94 per cent of the Republic’s roads, and carries 60 per cent of all traffic. The local road network also carries some 43 per cent of all goods vehicles.

Announcing the allocations yesterday, Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey said the money was intended to improve 2,540 kilometres of road this year and surface dress a further 4,200 kilometres.

Added to the call for tenders for the Gort-Tuam section of the N18/N17, it shows that investment in roads is still being prioritised.

Nostradamus

ihatewallies wrote: »

Prophets of doom are all basically cowards in my opinion.

Firstly, let me congradulate you on your first post to boards.

No fall in the the FF budget for shills I see. What did Cowan promise you then? A tour around Albert Reyolds dog food factory and a signed picture of Beverly Cooper Flynn in a red Baywatch swinsuit?

Right now I bet Martin Cullen and the rest of them are looking for a remote village in the Amazon basin were they can hide for 10 years or so until the depression ends and the canibalism in Gort has finally subsided.

Before they come back promising a TGV for the Aran Islands and an Irish Club in the Premiership. By then the national language will be grunts and the main diet will be Blackberries and Sparrows. That's if the Global "Warming" hasn't frozen the roots on all the plants by then and the Green Party Carbon Budget hasn't outlawed rubbing your hands together while saying "**** me it's freezing!" while waiting in line outside the soup kitchen.

I guess if you like soup then there is a reason to be optimistic. MetroSoup, SoupKitchen West, Western Breadline Corridor.

IIMII

ihatewallies wrote: »

Prophets of doom are all basically cowards in my opinion.

Nothing prophetic about it all. We're already in the ****

shamwari

Nostradamus wrote: »

Transport21 is history now. There is a global depression coming down the tracks (no pun) very shortly and most people will be more concered about getting food on the table and a roof over their heads than opening rail lines.

We had a terrible government who blew the oppertunity to build an adequet public transport system during the celtic tiger years by catering to vested interests from gombeens to trade unions and now the oppertunity is gone for at least 20 years.

That farce currently taking place in Government Buildings at the moment is trying to make it look like they have a clue when there is a state of panic behind the scenes as Ireland is staring into the economic abyss.

If there is a Transport 22 at some stage they are more likely to be planning to reopen the most of the rail services they will be closing in the next few years rather than building new metros. I hope I am wrong, but I was just looking over the latest data on the world financial markets and we really are in a tunnel (again no pun) with no idea what's ahead other than bad times. It's like the 1930's again without the mixed train on the Wolfhill Branch.

I think we have to forget about our trains for a while. The brown stuff is starting to hit the fan.

Nostradamus is not someone whom I would normally agree with. However his post here is something I do agree with 100%. Not putting to fine a point on things, but this country is f***ed. We are haemorrhaging jobs. The tax take has plunged. The banks are broke. Profitable businesses are failing because of simple cashflow constraints. And I do blame the government because after 3 terms in office, then have allowed this appalling economic situation to obtain by virtue of the inept way they have run our economy for the benefit of a select few. They systematically benefited from the property market to the extent that their tax take was around 40-44% of each new dwelling built. It was in their interest to allow the property market run riot, but what they didn't see happen (or chose to ignore) was the freeflow of cash from our banks which has now become the their very undoing. Again, due diligence was found wanting and they had no qualms about letting developers do what they wanted in an almost unfettered way.

Aspects of Transport21 were, in my view, aimed more at facilitating the wholesale development of land rather than enhancing transport. Look at the Kildare route project / Interconnector / Northern electrification to Drogheda in its totality, and then just try to imagine how much land could have been developed with these infrastructural pieces in place. With the property market cash cow now dead, and the collateral damage which this has now wreaked on banks and wider economy, we can kiss good bye to any meaningful infrastructural project taking place in the short or medium term. We wont have the money, and at the rate of economic freefall which we appear to be in, there probably won't be a strategic need for significant elements of these infrastructural pieces till such time as the economy starts to heal.

It's like the 80's all over again. Only this time, the music is crap

Nostradamus

shamwari wrote: »

It's like the 80's all over again. Only this time, the music is crap

and there is nowhere else for us this time to emigrate too either, as things are more or less just as bad everywhere else. It's going to be much much worse than the 80's. Back then we still had a tourist industry becuase our countryside had not been destroyed by one-off houses.

This current Economic Recovery Plan circus if I could use a transport anaology, would be... imagine sitting in a luxury airliner which has no fuel in the engines, has no radio contact with air traffic control, has lost its tail fin and is plunging to the ground at 700MPH in a total free fall and Brian Cowan is the pilot. Suddenly there is a voice on the intercom.

"THIS IS YOUR CAPTAIN SPEAKING...WE SEEM TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME TURBULANCE...WE ARE SORRY FOR THIS AND WE ARE NOW OFFERING A 10% DISCOUNT ON ALL DUTY FREE..."

That's the economic recovery plan. The politicians do not have to guts to tell the truth about how terrible things are, the trade unions are still living in the fantasy land of Partnership, and as usual journalists are too stupid to look at the real picture beyond government and corporate propaganda.

If the MetroNorth and Interconnector were already at the construction phase I would agree there would be finished even with the Depression coming. But they both died under a tusanmi of endless consultant reports, relaunches and glossy brouchure transport plans and bikini babes outside Dublin Castle on either side of whatever FF arsehole held the Transport Portfolio at the time.

A terrible, terrible government who blew the country's future on a Las Vagas crap game in the property market and their incredible mindset that there are only booms and never busts.

People need to wake up. This is a global Economic Depression is coming. Not a "downturn", "challenge", or a "recession", but the worst possible case scenario and Ireland being on the end of the global and economic (and gas) pipeline will be looking for crumbs off the table if we are lucky. We are looking at everything from soup lines to the power being off at 9PM every night.

I am not enjoying painting this picture and I hope I am wrong. Forget about rail plans, motorways and metros. Start looking after your families and make freinds with your neigbours. We are all going to need to take of each other as human beings and real communities and forget about being looked after by the Fianna Fail Galway Races Cardboard Box Brigade or any other political party.