aib and boi should make statement.

ranger4

With the irish bank crises going on would a statement from both aib and boi giving a comprehensive statment with their buissnes giving a complete picture with how much exposure to both good and bad debt they are exposed too also giving a buisness plan going forward would this open and transparent gesture be enough to bring some calm to the markets possibly slowing down the hemorage of bank shares.

Idu

As if...

If I remember correctly the first statement from Bear Sterns and Lehmann Brothers acknowledging the fact they were f cked was on the days they were disolved.

Seriously neither of them will ever release a statement that in depth so speculation rules the day yet again. Best hope is when they release their earnings to market you might get an insight into their figures but I doubt it would be too detailed

Baird

No such a statement would do nothing.
Nothing less than full disclose of every single loan will entirely satisfy the market at this stage and this is just not feasible.
They are just going to have to ride out this market turmoil

ranger4

Baird wrote: »

No such a statement would do nothing.
Nothing less than full disclose of every single loan will entirely satisfy the market at this stage and this is just not feasible.
They are just going to have to ride out this market turmoil

How much longer can aib-boi ride out this turmoil? the way the stock has been selling it too will end up being nationlized due to stock being decimated in the not to distant furure unless some kind of action is taken to calm the irish finanical market.

Baird

ranger4 wrote: »

How much longer can aib-boi ride out this turmoil? the way the stock has been selling it too will end up being nationlized due to stock being decimated in the not to distant furure unless some kind of action is taken to calm the irish finanical market.

They can ride out this turmoil indefinitely.
They are both profitable and have acceptable core tier 1s

Stock price means jack at this stage, a stock price falling doesnt mean a bank
will be nationalised. Not sure how many ways you would like the same question
answered to be honest. Ill put it as straight as possible, AIB will NEVER EVER be
nationalised and you can quote me on that.

Blackjack

Baird wrote: »

They can ride out this turmoil indefinitely.
They are both profitable and have acceptable core tier 1s

Stock price means jack at this stage, a stock price falling doesnt mean a bank
will be nationalised. Not sure how many ways you would like the same question
answered to be honest. Ill put it as straight as possible, AIB will NEVER EVER be
nationalised and you can quote me on that.

+1

Baird wrote: »

Not sure how many ways you would like the same question
answered to be honest.

+many millions......

TJJP

Baird wrote: »

both profitable and have acceptable core tier 1s

Source?

Blackjack

Blackjack wrote: »

+1



+many millions......

billions

Baird

TJJP wrote: »

Source?

Im not replying to that because no matter what i post someone will say bad
debts, UK tier 1s etc etc and it will lead to 7 more pointless pages tacked onto
this thread.

Just to reiterate, there is plenty of **** news to come Ranger, AIB could be a
euro within 6 months, but on a 3 year play it will be 3-4 euro unless we enter a
depression and the bank will not be flipping nationalised.
That is basically the last time im making a comment on any Irish bank as to be
honest they are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things at this stage.

ranger4

with all the volitility i expect we will see 10-20% moves in either direction with aib-boi in short trading periods.

dotsman

ranger4 wrote: »

with all the volitility i expect we will see 10-20% moves in either direction with aib-boi in short trading periods.

I though short trading on Irish financials was banned?

ranger4

dotsman wrote: »

I though short trading on Irish financials was banned?

Nothing there to stop investors with their own funds buying and selling bank stocks buy daytrading etc.

Baird

dotsman wrote: »

I though short trading on Irish financials was banned?

It is for 2 more weeks.

ranger4 wrote: »

Nothing there to stop investors with their own funds buying and selling bank stocks buy daytrading etc.

Shortselling and even spread betting on bank shares going down is banned.
Not sure what else you mean

ranger4

ranger4 wrote: »

Nothing there to stop investors with their own funds buying and selling bank stocks buy daytrading etc.

Looking through a lot of your previous posts I'm not quite sure if you understand the content of your posts.

Some of them are bordering on the ridiculous imo

ranger4

rarnes1 wrote: »

Looking through a lot of your previous posts I'm not quite sure if you understand the content of your posts.

Some of them are bordering on the ridiculous imo

Glad you find my posts interesting reading Dotsman correctly said that at moment short selling irish finanials is banned but in my post i was refering to Day trading with irish banks and the Large swings with stock prices over short periods of time NOT SHORT SELLING them i find your post quite ammusing.:D

ranger4

Baird wrote: »

It is for 2 more weeks.



Shortselling and even spread betting on bank shares going down is banned.
Not sure what else you mean

I should have said daytrading banks using own funds is not banned.

Idu

AIB are offered at 85c as I type and BOI at 55c. Crazy crazy stuff

ranger4

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

AIB are offered at 85c as I type and BOI at 55c. Crazy crazy stuff

Are you buying?

Baird

For the love of god what is wrong with people.
There are thousands of stocks all over the world you could be trading in, yet people only
want to know about the Irish banks.
Seriously do yourselves a favour and go spend the money on a car or a holiday as anyone
who is trading Irish financials is a fool and will not be long parting with their cash.

ranger4

Baird wrote: »

For the love of god what is wrong with people.
There are thousands of stocks all over the world you could be trading in, yet people only
want to know about the Irish banks.
Seriously do yourselves a favour and go spend the money on a car or a holiday as anyone
who is trading Irish financials is a fool and will not be long parting with their cash.

Wouldnt they be an exellent long term investment at thease prices.

DJDC

For the love of god what is wrong with people.
There are thousands of stocks all over the world you could be trading in, yet people only
want to know about the Irish banks.
Seriously do yourselves a favour and go spend the money on a car or a holiday as anyone
who is trading Irish financials is a fool and will not be long parting with their cash.

I agree with you but I can see how Irish people are fascinated by their fall. You have to admit 95% falls in value warrant a lot of debate and interest. But as a trading opportunity........the market will have deservedly punished anyone who invested in BOI,AIB and Anglo the last 6 months.Losing their hard earned cash will teach them lessons that me and you never can.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

Are you buying?

God no

I just think it's an interesting story

ranger4

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

god no

A trading freeze at least or nationlization at worst looks very possible now with thease stocks.

Bearcat

jeez, I am gob smacked at BOI/ AIB. Collapse is on my mind.

Idu

I said 6 months ago that I wouldnt buy any Irish banking stocks. It's been said all along that we hadnt seen the worst but people kept buying trying to time and outsmart the market. It's a fools errand and while I wouldnt want anyone to lose serious money anyone who ignored the advice given probably deserves what they get.

Amazing how quiet all those posters are who were calling us "nay sayers" before Christmas. As pocketdooz said in some other thread I hope at least one person took the advice and saved themselves some money. God knows we could all use as much as possible these days

ranger4

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

I said 6 months ago that I wouldnt buy any Irish banking stocks. It's been said all along that we hadnt seen the worst but people kept buying trying to time and outsmart the market. It's a fools errand and while I wouldnt want anyone to lose serious money anyone who ignored the advice given probably deserves what they get.

Amazing how quiet all those posters are who were calling us "nay sayers" before Christmas. As pocketdooz said in some other thread I hope at least one person took the advice and saved themselves some money. God knows we could all use as much as possible these days

so whats next likely move with aib-boi nationalization?

Bearcat

when I saw AIB down at 1.60 I was thinking this week of throwing 50k (last throw of the dice) at them. Glad I held out.

I know of guys that had spread bet AIB at 6 euro and they are destroyed. In my 43 yrs on this planet what is happening is unique and as much as we'd like to ignore the 1930's wipe out, smell the roses everyone, we are living it again.

Was in Cork city this morning and the place is just empty, business's are going to tumble and I believe no one is safe. Very sad times.

I also think our ministry of finance is just powerless watching the whole economy dissolve in front of them. Make no mistake their is now a run on our banking system and I think it is time to suspend trading in our two remaining pillars of banks or its over.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

so whats next likely move with aib-boi nationalization?

I dont know - does anyone? This has been the problem since day one. Nobody knows the answer to these questions so how can you make a clear trading decision? If I were you I would just dump the AIB stock you have. Take the loss and put it down to experience. You cant be right every time and letting your loss go this far is a mistake I would wager you wont make again. At least I hope not

ranger4

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

I dont know - does anyone? This has been the problem since day one. Nobody knows the answer to these questions so how can you make a clear trading decision? If I were you I would just dump the AIB stock you have. Take the loss and put it down to experience. You cant be right every time and letting your loss go this far is a mistake I would wager you wont make again. At least I hope not

I dumped at 1.20.

SteadyEddie

Anyone who thinks our ENTIRE banking sector cannot be nationalised is living in a dream world. Severe funding problems are killing our banks. Really worrying times.

woodseb

SteadyEddie wrote: »

Anyone who thinks our ENTIRE banking sector cannot be nationalised is living in a dream world.

they may be nationalised, but the state can't afford it - if they do we'll be hoping our health services is as good as angola

SteadyEddie

Ireland really could go to the wall, 2009 could be the year of the Celtic Collapse. Worst case and its entirely possible is we will see raising of taxes, public services drying up, huge job losses, property market collapse.

SteadyEddie

It is kind of fitting that today is statistically the most depressing day of the year.

woodseb

SteadyEddie wrote: »

Ireland really could go to the wall, 2009 could be the year of the Celtic Collapse. Worst case and its entirely possible is we will see raising of taxes, public services drying up, huge job losses, property market collapse.

considering these have all begun to happen you're hardly nostradamus there

SteadyEddie

I'm not professing to be nostradamus. But although they have only begun, we have not seen the half of what is going to pan out IMO.

ranger4

SteadyEddie wrote: »

I'm not professing to be nostradamus. But although they have only begun, we have not seen the half of what is going to pan out IMO.

Getting very ominus allright.

Compak

these banks could very easily issue a statement like Barclays did.

state the drop is unjustified and that income (due in March) is expected to meet/beat expectations.

no point saying wont need more capital. We all trust Sheehy now!

Mark200

Baird wrote: »

Ill put it as straight as possible, AIB will NEVER EVER be
nationalised and you can quote me on that.

What about BOI?


I was thinking of investing in either BOI or AIB....I've never invested in stocks before. There was a post in another thread/forum that the minimum investment is 2000e? Is that true?

I was hoping to just throw in a few hundred euro and see what happens.

SteadyEddie

Mark200: Both AIB and BOI could be nationalised. Indeed the market is pricing in little chance of survival for either bank.

pocketdooz

Mark200 wrote: »

What about BOI?


I was thinking of investing in either BOI or AIB....I've never invested in stocks before. There was a post in another thread/forum that the minimum investment is 2000e? Is that true?

I was hoping to just throw in a few hundred euro and see what happens.

Save your money - don't go near the banks

There is very good value to be found in the markets right now - but toxic Irish banks are the last places you should be looking at


.

ranger4

pocketdooz wrote: »

Save your money - don't go near the banks

There is very good value to be found in the markets right now - but toxic Irish banks are the last places you should be looking at


.

Agree, crh and ryanair come to mind, forget about everything else in irish market for about another 3-6 months.

Raskolnikov

SteadyEddie wrote: »

Anyone who thinks our ENTIRE banking sector cannot be nationalised is living in a dream world.

It happened to Iceland.

SteadyEddie wrote: »

Severe funding problems are killing our banks. Really worrying times.

Rubbish. What's killing the banks are their balance sheets.

Basic accounting lesson for you. When the liabilities of a company exceed their assets, they company is insolvent. An insolvent company is worthless. This is why RBS, HBOS and now our Irish banks share prices have tanked. The next step for an insolvent bank is nationalisation, this has happened in 99% of cases so far.

Lplated

I bought some today..... so i hope ye's are all wrong.

Heard an analysis on the news that the latest drops are cos the market is pricing in the change of official policy in the UK (as announced this morning, UK govt not taking preference shares, taking full equity in banks instead), and speculation that Irish Govt will change its policy on same lines.

Other line of thought is that Anglo nationalisation will lead to distressed assets going on the market, thus reducing the remaining value of all property even further, and as AIB/BofI hold some of this 'remaining property' as security they would then be more open to losses etc...

Even if the two banks were nationalised (aib and bofi), an assessor would still have to put a value on them and shareholders would b e likely to get something (on the basis, for eg that AIB is better spread investment wise, not as exposed to simple development property as anglo was).

Ye may be right and may be i should have bought lotto tickets, but at sixty cents i just couldnt resist.

ranger4

Lplated wrote: »

I bought some today..... so i hope ye's are all wrong.

Heard an analysis on the news that the latest drops are cos the market is pricing in the change of official policy in the UK (as announced this morning, UK govt not taking preference shares, taking full equity in banks instead), and speculation that Irish Govt will change its policy on same lines.

Other line of thought is that Anglo nationalisation will lead to distressed assets going on the market, thus reducing the remaining value of all property even further, and as AIB/BofI hold some of this 'remaining property' as security they would then be more open to losses etc...

Even if the two banks were nationalised (aib and bofi), an assessor would still have to put a value on them and shareholders would b e likely to get something (on the basis, for eg that AIB is better spread investment wise, not as exposed to simple development property as anglo was).

Ye may be right and may be i should have bought lotto tickets, but at sixty cents i just couldnt resist.

Bad news seems to be coming from every angle and i guess ireland after greece and spain will have its AAA rating lowered to add to the doom and gloom, Best of Luck with your aib punt.

SteadyEddie

Raskolnikov: Thanks for the lesson although I largely disagree. Firstly AIB and BOI are NOT insolvent. The fall can be largely accounted due to investor fears that shares are going to be heavily diluted when the banks are re-capitalised (a la Anglo). Todays falls are also making it significantly harder for the banks to raise private capital, further knocking the price and causing them significant funding issues.

No analyst coverage I have read has stated that AIB, BOI or IL&P are insolvent as per your statement.

If it becomes the case which is possible, my original belief that they will be nationalised will be true.

We are not Iceland, and under no circumnstances will our government let our 3 main banks go under, because as bad as nationalising them is, letting them collapse is worse.

pocketdooz

Lplated wrote: »

I bought some today..... so i hope ye's are all wrong.

Heard an analysis on the news that the latest drops are cos the market is pricing in the change of official policy in the UK (as announced this morning, UK govt not taking preference shares, taking full equity in banks instead), and speculation that Irish Govt will change its policy on same lines.

Other line of thought is that Anglo nationalisation will lead to distressed assets going on the market, thus reducing the remaining value of all property even further, and as AIB/BofI hold some of this 'remaining property' as security they would then be more open to losses etc...

Even if the two banks were nationalised (aib and bofi), an assessor would still have to put a value on them and shareholders would b e likely to get something (on the basis, for eg that AIB is better spread investment wise, not as exposed to simple development property as anglo was).

Ye may be right and may be i should have bought lotto tickets, but at sixty cents i just couldnt resist.

I hope you didn't work to hard for that money you just burnt.



.

Mark200

I talked to my friend an hour ago and he's interesting in investing in a bank too. Hopefully we'll do it before the price goes up a bit again

stainluss

I have money in BOI and i was thinknig of putting about 200e in AIB just in case so if one of them stayed in i would recoup a little bit of my money?any thoughts?

Baird

SteadyEddie wrote: »

Ireland really could go to the wall, 2009 could be the year of the Celtic Collapse. Worst case and its entirely possible is we will see raising of taxes, public services drying up, huge job losses, property market collapse.

Just out of curiosity what are you basing your assessment of Ireland going to the wall on?

SteadyEddie wrote: »

Raskolnikov: Thanks for the lesson although I largely disagree. Firstly AIB and BOI are NOT insolvent. The fall can be largely accounted due to investor fears that shares are going to be heavily diluted when the banks are re-capitalised (a la Anglo). Todays falls are also making it significantly harder for the banks to raise private capital, further knocking the price and causing them significant funding issues.

No analyst coverage I have read has stated that AIB, BOI or IL&P are insolvent as per your statement.

If it becomes the case which is possible, my original belief that they will be nationalised will be true.

We are not Iceland, and under no circumnstances will our government let our 3 main banks go under, because as bad as nationalising them is, letting them collapse is worse.

I agree with your post except for your contention that all our banks can be
nationalised. If the country was operating a budget surplus then its
concievable, but we are not. In fact we have a giant budget defecit which
needs to be plugged by raising debt on the international money markets.
If we nationalised all our banks we will not be able to raise a cent. It will
break the back of the country and destroy 30 years of prosperity in one
fell swoop. As a result everything that is humanly possible will be done to
prevent this from happening. Ireland nationalising its banks will more than
likely see us kicked out of the euro, which could and probably will destabilise
the entire country with huge implications for the entire Eurozone.
I cant see our government or any country in the Eurozone letting that happen.

If it does happen, stock up on tinned food as we are in for 20 years of being
in the global economic wilderness.

SteadyEddie

Hi Baird. I mean't that Ireland could go to the wall, not definite statement. It was more based on the event of Ireland taking on the banks, without the full knowledge of how much is going to be written down - that's my main fear.

Don't get my wrong, I think taking on 100 billion of Anglos commerical loans is crazy. But the government seemed convinced that it was better to act rather than let the bank go under & deal with the fallout after. I'm not sure the government has any other option. They seem to be damned if they do and damned if they don't.

I personally see little option for the government in relation AIB and BOI. To let one of these banks fail IMO would bring down the country. They are both so intertwined in business & society to let one fail is unthinkable.

I sincerly hope that I am wrong, possibly the 2 billion and additional funding will be enough....although I fear that having such a dependence on property (which has and is going to continue tanking) could cripple them.

Lplated

pocketdooz wrote: »

I hope you didn't work to hard for that money you just burnt.

Lol, as far i'm concerned all money is hard earned.

I've read your comments in a few places on the forum and you seem very sure of your stance - I hope you're incorrect and just write in an overly self confident manner - but even if not, i took the same approach yesterday as i do with all investments, i only put in a certain percentage of my overall worth.

In my view, AIB are no more of a risk now than they were at 23 euro. The only difference is that the market and economy as a whole have thrown up a load of negative factors since that time in 2007 BUT the stock price has reduced significantly to reflect that (including the risk of nationalisation).

In the absence of the sort of information that you seem to be privy to, all investing is risky. The greater the risk the greater the potential reward.

I was one of the few who jumped on Elan at 2euro way back when... we looked foolish at the time, but rather less so when i sold them for over 20 euro a short while later (NOTE i'm not saying the same will happen with AIB).

The point i'm trying to make is that all investing is risk. Measure an amount you're prepared to lose and guesstimate the degree to which you're willing to lose it. The answer dictates what sort of shares you should buy and the price you should buy them at.