10 Day Figures

MichealD

A lot of discussion here about 09 reg's. Attached are first 10 day registration figures.

Drummerboy08

Makes for interesting reading. Kinda scary at the same time.

JJJJNR

Has to be back to the eighty's with those figures.

EPM

Overall down 71%:eek:

mumblin deaf ro

I'm developing into a bit of a fan of Saabs, but they are being wiped out there - just five cars, down from 139 last year (-96%). There won't be any 2009 second hand Saabs to buy in a few years' time (apart from UK).

Drummerboy08

Problem with Saab is they are just too expensive for what they are.

L1011

Why are Subaru holding up so well so far?

And I wouldn't want to be a Saab dealer!

Ferris

MYOB wrote: »

Why are Subaru holding up so well so far?

Two words - Diesel Legecy.

Citroen are down too but not as much as most - probably due to the new C5. Amazing what a difference one model can make, and just by giving people what they want.

MichealD

MYOB wrote: »

Why are Subaru holding up so well so far?

And I wouldn't want to be a Saab dealer!

% falls or rises over a short period for very small marques are not really reliable. Subaru only sold 372 units in the whole of 2008.

A lot of discussion on this site has focused on dealerships closing. There must also be a bigger question mark over why a distributor would bother bringing in a brand which might would sell less than 400 units. (maybe only 150 in 2009).

mumblin deaf ro

Imagine driving down the street with the only 2009 Porsche in Ireland.

R.O.R

mumblin deaf ro wrote: »

I'm developing into a bit of a fan of Saabs, but they are being wiped out there - just five cars, down from 139 last year (-96%). There won't be any 2009 second hand Saabs to buy in a few years' time (apart from UK).

I think Saab were the most shocking result from all of those. We bought one of those so I wonder where the other 4 went?

Some very scary stories from our suppliers about how little they have on order.

Yakuza

Up until last Thursday, I hadn't seen one 09 reg at all, and I've been out and about most days in Dublin. I've seen 3 to date, the highest reg was 13XX. This time last year (7 working days into the new year), it would have been well over 5000.

Drummerboy08

I had one go out today, that was in the low 2000's.

maxwell smart

Saab has been decimated by the change in VRT regulations in relation to their Bio Fuel vehicles. One dealer I spoke to was telling me that he sold 35 9-5's up to July last year. He reckons he'll sell 2 this year if lucky.
They do have some incredible engines coming on stream, ultra low emissions (124g) with 180bhp from a 1.8 bio fuel engine. This can't come too soon for dealers. The chap I was speaking to also has Seat and one other marque so he will be Ok, God help and stand alone Saab dealers....

But look at it another way. I went in to buy a new Superb today with an 07 trade in and was told they ain't taking anything that old!!!

michael_23

Those numbers are very interesting. Where do the figures com from? Or where is it possible to access such info?

Cheers

NiSmO

This post has been deleted.

mumblin deaf ro

maxwell smart wrote: »

Saab has been decimated by the change in VRT regulations in relation to their Bio Fuel vehicles. One dealer I spoke to was telling me that he sold 35 9-5's up to July last year. He reckons he'll sell 2 this year if lucky.
They do have some incredible engines coming on stream, ultra low emissions (124g) with 180bhp from a 1.8 bio fuel engine. This can't come too soon for dealers. The chap I was speaking to also has Seat and one other marque so he will be Ok, God help and stand alone Saab dealers....

The new Saab 9-5 can't come quickly enough.

mumblin deaf ro

There must be some dealers out there who sold no 2009 cars at all.

galwaytt

MichealD wrote: »

A lot of discussion here about 09 reg's. Attached are first 10 day registration figures.

sweet jeebus - that's shocking.

A big thing no-one has commented on, yet, is that the VRT and VAT shortfall will be huge. Add that to the current account deficit and this is one hell of an abyss we're looking into.........

245

MichealD wrote: »

% falls or rises over a short period for very small marques are not really reliable. Subaru only sold 372 units in the whole of 2008.

A lot of discussion on this site has focused on dealerships closing. There must also be a bigger question mark over why a distributor would bother bringing in a brand which might would sell less than 400 units. (maybe only 150 in 2009).

There are probably some economies of scale when combined with the UK market. They obviously see prospects for the diesel Impreza here too seeing as they're bringing it over to us and not selling it in the UK (because of exchange rate difficulties).

Subaru's future in the UK and Ireland is a lot more rosy since the diesel engine was introduced.

Darragh29

MichealD wrote: »

A lot of discussion here about 09 reg's. Attached are first 10 day registration figures.

By anyone's standard those figures are alarming. I've just been off the phone to a mate who is/was in sales and has just been let go this evening. I got a call a lunchtime today from another mate who's girlfriend works in the trade who's just been given a week's notice. Look's like it's dog eat dog out there at the moment. I genuinely feel sorry for anyone losing their job now through all of this...

MichealD

Those numbers are very interesting. Where do the figures com from? Or where is it possible to access such info?

Information is supplied from the VRO to the SIMI on the previous days registrations and in turn on to the distributors on a daily basis. The ten, 20 and monthly figures are collated by the SIMI and again forwarded to the distributors along with a county analysis with shows registrations by make, by county. Also provided on a monthly basis is a passenger and commercial segmentation report which breaks down monthly registrations by each individual car/van model in each individual segment and other information like hire drive registration figures for each franchise. This information forms the basis for the statistics available in a less detailed format on the SIMI website.

In my case the distributor for some of our franchises forward on the information to the garage's although I understand this does not happen in all franchises.

Daithi McGee

R.O.R wrote: »

I think Saab were the most shocking result from all of those. We bought one of those so I wonder where the other 4 went?

Some very scary stories from our suppliers about how little they have on order.

I don't find the high percentage drops scary, Saab were never a volume seller even though their 10 day figures are bad. More interesting are the figures for the top 4 or 5. Toyota being over 2200 vehicles down? If that trend continues then it is very worring, well for the big hitters. I don't know their current stocks but at some stage the factory is going to want to be paid for the vehicles and that will be one hell of a bill.

:eek:

mumblin deaf ro

How is the car market going to correct itself? The only way out i can see is for prices to drop to close to UK levels, either by dealers taking the hit or by dealers going out of business and their unsold cars being flogged off cheaply at auction.

Any other ideas?

Darragh29

mumblin deaf ro wrote: »

How is the car market going to correct itself? The only way out i can see is for prices to drop to close to UK levels, either by dealers taking the hit or by dealers going out of business and their unsold cars being flogged off cheaply at auction.

Any other ideas?

Both are happening at the moment. The smart dealers are taking a hit on the loss, but at the end of the day, it is really down to how well capitalised they are as a business. If they've been p*ssing their money all over town and spending money on things like helicopters to the Galway Races and wearing their ego on their big swinging dick, then they probably deserve to go bust.

Daithi McGee

Darragh29 wrote: »

Both are happening at the moment. The smart dealers are taking a hit on the loss, but at the end of the day, it is really down to how well capitalised they are as a business. .

Pretty much bang on. Cash flow is king.

The car industry in Ireland is totally screwed for a number of reasons, never mind the current economic factors. You have the whole Euro3 to Euro4 emmisions regulation which meant used cars took a bit of a hit in 2008 and then the big kick in the balls was the CO2 emission changes. That pretty much started the ass dropping out of the industry. The government were fairly ignorant of the damage they were about to do to the industry. Do you think anyone would have imported and stocked the highest band had they known what was coming?

Apparently there are close to 100,000 unsold new houses that won't meet the new energy saving regulations by June. It will be interesting to see how firm the Government are on that.

McSpud

If this continues will be big drop in tax revenues as we all know much cars are taxed. I would be doubtful if Dept of Finance clowns have factored this into their projections.

L-M

Jesus that shocking to read.

bazz26

mumblin deaf ro wrote: »

I'm developing into a bit of a fan of Saabs, but they are being wiped out there - just five cars, down from 139 last year (-96%). There won't be any 2009 second hand Saabs to buy in a few years' time (apart from UK).

Drummerboy08 wrote: »

Problem with Saab is they are just too expensive for what they are.

The other problem is their range of cars are old and dated. The 9-5 has not changed much since being introduced in 1997 and that uses the 1989 Opel Vectra chassis. The 9-3 has been around since 2002.

bbability

Well I have no sympathy for the people who have ripped Joe Soap off in this country for years. I feel sorry for the people who will lose thier jobs because of this big mess. The Industry here needs a big wake up call. Its lost its competitive edge and our neighbours across the pond and up north are cleaning up.

Its not that people are broke and don't have the cash. Its just that Joe Soap is spending his money more wisely and are fed up of being ripped off.

bazz26

I was in a Ford garage today having my Focus serviced, the showroom was a ghost town, there were 2 salesmen standing around chatting and laughing to each other about their conquests last Saturday night.

Up to last year you would have had to form a queue to see one of them in January.

Darragh29

bbability wrote: »

Its not that people are broke and don't have the cash. Its just that Joe Soap is spending his money more wisely and are fed up of being ripped off.

+1. And it's about time.

jonnygee

Well i just dont know what the answer is, I want to buy a new car , I have the cash available to buy an 09 but I just cant afford to take the hit. Cars that are retailing around 25000 are going to be worth about 16000 after one year. It seems like madness to me to take that sort of loss.
Maybe it,s something that we have,nt become accoustomed to yet but we might have to.
The new Co2 rates have made importing deisels from uk very attractive.
Our new prices seem very high because of vrt, you can import an 08 diesel with very little miles for an awful lot less even after adding on vrt.

Stevie Dakota

bbability wrote: »

Its not that people are broke and don't have the cash. Its just that Joe Soap is spending his money more wisely and are fed up of being ripped off.

The problem is not that people are not spending the cash wisely, they are just not spending it full stop. The banks are not loaning, we are not spending, everybody has gone into lockdown, no cash in the system means everybody looses, if its not your job today, it may well be tomorrow. Until confidence picks up we're all toast.

galwaytt

jonnygee wrote: »

Well i just dont know what the answer is, I want to buy a new car , I have the cash available to buy an 09 but I just cant afford to take the hit.

If you can't afford the hit, you can't afford the car, tbh............

Buy an ex-demo, or similar, and you will be in the middle ground - new reg, full warranty. If it's bad now, they'll be baying for blood in March. Hold your nerve.

galwaytt

bbability wrote: »

.... The Industry here needs a big wake up call. Its lost its competitive edge and our neighbours across the pond and up north are cleaning up.

...it never had a competitive edge, and a lot of that is down to VRT. It doesn't matter what you're prepared to sell a car for, margin-wise, if f/x rates and VRT are going to kick you at every opportunity.

galwaytt

Daithi McGee wrote: »

Do you think anyone would have imported and stocked the highest band had they known what was coming?

DAMHIK.............:o

Apparently there are close to 100,000 unsold new houses that won't meet the new energy saving regulations by June. It will be interesting to see how firm the Government are on that.

Sweet **** all, to be frank. Considering that, near me, the Co Council have built 220 houses that don't/won't, either. Not a solar panel or renewable attempt of any kind. Built of conc with std 65mm insulation. Considering that social housing ends up being paid for, and subsidised through welfare for most of it's life, that's your and my money they're wasting.....:mad:

Stephen

I have only seen two 09 plates so far this year :eek: One 09-KK Renault Megane and one 09-D Honda Accord.

skyhighflyer

People still holding off on buying a used car should take these figures into account too.

Assuming the current trend continues there won't be near half the number of new cars registered this year compared to last year. Let's say the economy begins to recover in 2013. Joe Soap goes out looking for a 4 year old (2009) 3 series, Avensis, etc. There won't be anywhere near as many to choose from meaning that supply of decent used cars will be much lower forcing prices up. Get while the getting's good!

Yakult

cant say we didnt see this coming. I have only seen two 09's and both were bmw's.

Darragh29

jonnygee wrote: »

Well i just dont know what the answer is, I want to buy a new car , I have the cash available to buy an 09 but I just cant afford to take the hit. Cars that are retailing around 25000 are going to be worth about 16000 after one year. It seems like madness to me to take that sort of loss.
Maybe it,s something that we have,nt become accoustomed to yet but we might have to.
The new Co2 rates have made importing deisels from uk very attractive.
Our new prices seem very high because of vrt, you can import an 08 diesel with very little miles for an awful lot less even after adding on vrt.

The problem is that Irish people in recent years have forgotten what assets are actually for! When it came to houses, we forgot that houses are for living in! We decided to turn them over as investments because they became more important as an investment object than as a place where people live and use for shelter, heat and comfort. A lot of this game was pathethic and ego driven posing, so folks could mouth off about their "property investment portfolio".

The exact same has happened with the motor industry, we forgot what cars are for! Cars are for getting us from A to B, but in Ireland, the purchase of valuable car's became a method of telling your neighbours that you were wealthier than they were!

Now the baloon has burst and the house of cards is lying as flat as a sheet of paper on the table, I hope we have learnt something but I fear we have not.

JohnnyGee, why do you need or want to buy a 09 car??? I'm not flaming here, but what can a 09 car do for you that a 07/08 car cannot do for you???

Stevie Dakota

Darragh29 wrote: »

but what can a 09 car do for you that a 07/08 car cannot do for you???

Depreciate more quickly?

ninty9er

The shocker for me is Merc down 85%. I would have thought many *new* Merc buyers are in the leagues of wealth, that though not being recession proof, that it wouldn't impinge on their purchase of a new car.

Looking like a lot of good value demos to be had. You have to wonder is the Toyota thing due to so many of the 2nd generation Avensis being registered in 08 to depreciate them to a saleable level for 09, or is it people waiting for the 1.33 engine and the 3rd gen Avensis.

My mother took great delight in telling me she's holding on to her 06 Yaris for another 6-7 years now that it owes her nothing:eek: Now I wouldn't mind, but when I eventually do move out, that will be the sole car in the driveway...a 10 year old Vectra or Mondeo with a better than base spec and engine I can handle, but a 10 year old supermini on regular mileage is madness.

Women:rolleyes:

She does have a sneaky wish to have a nice C-Class or Passat though which is affordable at this rate if things keep going.

Henry Ford III

People have stopped spending folks. They can't/won't borrow. They are dead right too imho.

Prices must fall.

pburns

BMWs fall is a surprise. Notice the reversal of fortune with Audi - what THAT about!? Are Bimmers becoming slightly unfashionable? With all that Efficent Dynamics bollocks you'd expect them to weather the storm a bit better.

VW and Mazda are surprises also. VWs I think represent poor value for money so I'm not surprised. Mazda have a good range though - the 2 & 6 are very recent models and they have the excellent 1.6d engine with high MPG/low CO2...

Yah, go Subaru!
And AFAIK that's with a soon-to-be replaced Legacy (and the excellent value Impreza hasn't hit the showroom yet).

itarumaa

does someone want to quess what happens for whole year.

Does the car sales improve here or not?

I kind of hope they do, because if you have 70% drop for whole year, how many garages are left at end of the year?

Drummerboy08

If it does keep going the way it is, there will be ALOT more people on the live register claiming the social this time next year.

How is Mr Cowen going to pay for all that?

sk8board

pburns wrote: »

BMWs fall is a surprise. Notice the reversal of fortune with Audi - what THAT about!? Are Bimmers becoming slightly unfashionable?

well done on posting the speradsheets; its nice to have some real facts for a change.

I would've bet the house on BMW performing better than Audi (i.e. those percentage figures reversed).

I guess all the nancy-boys are drawn to those tacky running lights on all new audi's. Last years fad; in a few years they'll scream 'look at me, I've an aul audi with a set of fairy lights across the front'.

also, phew, my faith is restored; I saw my first 09 this morning, an A4 as it happens, diesel entry level, parked up in the railway station. Its quite common to see new cars every year and all they do is depreciate in the railway station while the owner gets the train into town. One is a Focus ST, and its in the same spot every day for the past 2 years. An expensive luxury. Those days are gone.

roosterman71

Anyone got any clue how much VAT and VRT is down based on those 10 day figures?

Padraig Mor

pburns wrote: »

BMWs fall is a surprise. Notice the reversal of fortune with Audi - what THAT about!? Are Bimmers becoming slightly unfashionable? With all that Efficent Dynamics bollocks you'd expect them to weather the storm a bit better.).

Even more surprising given that last January's BMW figures would presumably have been lower than normal with people waiting until July to register at the new lower VRT rates.

JJJJNR

bbability wrote: »

Well I have no sympathy for the people who have ripped Joe Soap off in this country for years. I feel sorry for the people who will lose thier jobs because of this big mess. The Industry here needs a big wake up call. Its lost its competitive edge and our neighbours across the pond and up north are cleaning up.

Its not that people are broke and don't have the cash. Its just that Joe Soap is spending his money more wisely and are fed up of being ripped off.

+1 nail on the head.