when do you think the recession will end

cormywormy

well the thing i agree with is that ireland will be last to recover from the recession.While the world is grand.I was told give it middle of 2010 and it will be over, what do you think.

redarmyblues

Mid 2010 is wishful thinking.

CamperMan

it's going to get worse.... I reckon on it lasting about 5 to 10 years.. minimum

Fighting Irish

cormywormy wrote: »

well the thing i agree with is that ireland will be last to recover from the recession.While the world is grand.I was told give it middle of 2010 and it will be over, what do you think.

lol

some people have yet to realise how big this situation is

Jam-Fly

26th Feb. 2014

CamperMan

Jam-Fly wrote: »

26th Feb. 2014

at what time??

Jam-Fly

CamperMan wrote: »

at what time??

10.46am

CamperMan

Jam-Fly wrote: »

10.46am

Thanks for that, I will set my alarm clock to wake me up when the recession is over...

Toiletroll

CamperMan wrote: »

Thanks for that, I will set my alarm clock to wake me up when the recession is over...

It took until 1954 from the crash in 1929 for the markets to reach the same levels as before...

Now enjoy the rest of your life...

Time Magazine

Toiletroll wrote: »

It took until 1954 from the crash in 1929 for the markets to reach the same levels as before...

Now enjoy the rest of your life...

And even after the greatest financial collapse of all time with unemployment reaching 25%, American GDP reached the same levels in 1940, a good half-generation before 1954.

darc

My guess is rather optimistic, but I think we'll see a turn towards the end of this year with small growth of 1% in 2010 followed by growth of 2 - 3% in 2011 & 2012.

Some of the reasons I have are as follows.

Very few knowledge based jobs have been lost recently - DELL, Microsoft, Intel have announced widespread job losses worldwide but with the exception of the much heralded closure of the dell lego factory in Limerick, hardly any job losses affected Ireland.

With the US economy set to pick up later this year (hopefully) additional knowledge based jobcreation will recommence in Ireland. This hopefully will give consumer confidence a boost which allayed with increased spending power due to lower mortgage interest rates will lead to an upswing in retail & hospitality sectors where more value based jobs will get created.

Furthermore, many of the europeans who came here over the past 7 years will have moved on, thus leaving the new jobs being created for those who have stayed & for homegrown employees.

Unfortunately for those in construction, house building will not start in earnest until 2012 / 2013 and then not at the level we saw for the past 6 years. - But this is good as we don't want to be dependent on construction.

silverharp

The Economist wrote: »

And even after the greatest financial collapse of all time with unemployment reaching 25%, American GDP reached the same levels in 1940, a good half-generation before 1954.

God forbid people would have to work to create wealth instead of speculating. I think house prices followed stocks as well timewise.

DublinWriter

If you want to figure out when the current recession, nay depression, will end, you'll have to work out the reasons for the boom in the first place.

I would argue that our recent prosperity was brought about by two main factors - a) the low corporation tax for foreign companies introduced in the late 80's and b) a cheap, English speaking workforce.

It was inward investment that got Ireland out of the economic slump that it had been in since the mid-60's.

Ireland faces the prospect of very little future inward investment as global organisations move ever-eastward in their race to the bottom to decrease overheads.

Therefore I would those who predict certain years for the slump to end, why exactly will our fortunes change? The discovery of oil in Kerry maybe?

20goto10

Its all relative. I'm still waiting for it to happen. Personally, things have never been better. I've never had so much money and there are so many bargains out there. So long as I can keep my job everything is so much better than it was during the madness. OK so I know my government has less money and that is going to affect me...or is it? They did nothing worthwhile for me during the boom, and they're still doing nothing worthwhile for me so really the recession has had absolutely no affect on me whatsoever. I'm going to sit back and gladly watch Rip Off Ireland die a slow miserable death. Viva la Recessión!

p.s judging by the amount of people out shopping over the weekend, I'm clearly not the only one unaffected.

DublinWriter

20goto10 wrote: »

So long as I can keep my job everything is so much better than it was during the madness.

You've just hit the crux of the matter. You're obviously not working in construction.

I'd glad you can still afford to sport an "I'm alright Jack" attitude. Just as a rising tide lifts all boats, the opposite is also true.

Flamed Diving

20goto10 wrote: »

Its all relative. I'm still waiting for it to happen. Personally, things have never been better. I've never had so much money and there are so many bargains out there. So long as I can keep my job everything is so much better than it was during the madness. OK so I know my government has less money and that is going to affect me...or is it? They did nothing worthwhile for me during the boom, and they're still doing nothing worthwhile for me so really the recession has had absolutely no affect on me whatsoever. I'm going to sit back and gladly watch Rip Off Ireland die a slow miserable death. Viva la Recessión!

p.s judging by the amount of people out shopping over the weekend, I'm clearly not the only one unaffected.

I'm seeing some benefits also. Price of rent in my area has dropped by about 33%, so I'll be getting myself a new/nicer/cheaper pad come March.

20goto10

DublinWriter wrote: »

You've just hit the crux of the matter. You're obviously not working in construction.

I'd glad you can still afford to sport an "I'm alright Jack" attitude. Just as a rising tide lifts all boats, the opposite is also true.

Like I said, its all relative. Do I have an obligation to go down with the sinking ship when I'm a good swimmer? I work in IT, we got no sympathy whatsoever when our industry crashed in the early 2000's. We had to pull our socks up and get on with things, not look for bail outs and government intervention.

Time Magazine

silverharp wrote: »

God forbid people would have to work to create wealth instead of speculating. I think house prices followed stocks as well timewise.

I think we're making the same point. Mine is that the value of the stock market is an imprecise measure of the economic health of a country. (GDP is too, but it's far more accurate.)

silverharp

The Economist wrote: »

I think we're making the same point. Mine is that the value of the stock market is an imprecise measure of the economic health of a country. (GDP is too, but it's far more accurate.)

Indeed , it maybe that for the average person life was getting back to normal by the late 30's, also maybe the fact that asset prices like housing was more affordable, helped the average person. I remember reading an article that during the 30's meat consumption rose for even relatively poor people, throw in technology development during the period, and quality of life was quietly increasing. If I was fumbling at making a point it is that rising asset prices are not the be all for generating wealth. Squeeze the speculation community and maybe a more balanced economy emerges which actually produce useful "stuff"

DublinWriter

20goto10 wrote: »

Like I said, its all relative. Do I have an obligation to go down with the sinking ship when I'm a good swimmer? I work in IT, we got no sympathy whatsoever when our industry crashed in the early 2000's. We had to pull our socks up and get on with things, not look for bail outs and government intervention.

IT is the most volatile of all industries and the most unregulated in terms of professional qualifications. A lot of people got into IT pre Y2K and Euro conversion who really shouldn't have been there. What happened in 2001 Q2 was what many would call a normalisation, and what I would call a 'correction', basically it separated the men from the boys and the excess fat was shed.

What happened in 2001 was a minor blip compared to the seismic event that's currently just starting.

I know plenty of people in IT who think they are 'indispensable' to their particular companies. Guess what? There will always be someone cheaper, younger and smarter than you ready to take your job.

mathie

20goto10 wrote: »

Its all relative. I'm still waiting for it to happen. Personally, things have never been better. I've never had so much money and there are so many bargains out there. So long as I can keep my job everything is so much better than it was during the madness. OK so I know my government has less money and that is going to affect me...or is it? They did nothing worthwhile for me during the boom, and they're still doing nothing worthwhile for me so really the recession has had absolutely no affect on me whatsoever. I'm going to sit back and gladly watch Rip Off Ireland die a slow miserable death. Viva la Recessión!

p.s judging by the amount of people out shopping over the weekend, I'm clearly not the only one unaffected.

You've heard of tax right?

Jam-Fly

DublinWriter wrote: »

If you want to figure out when the current recession, nay depression, will end, you'll have to work out the reasons for the boom in the first place.

I would argue that our recent prosperity was brought about by two main factors - a) the low corporation tax for foreign companies introduced in the late 80's and b) a cheap, English speaking workforce.

It was inward investment that got Ireland out of the economic slump that it had been in since the mid-60's.

Ireland faces the prospect of very little future inward investment as global organisations move ever-eastward in their race to the bottom to decrease overheads.

Therefore I would those who predict certain years for the slump to end, why exactly will our fortunes change? The discovery of oil in Kerry maybe?

You may be onto something there!

liberal

cormywormy wrote: »

Post your views to when do you think the recession will end.And what else might happen.

The consensus is that the recession will end in the 3rd quarter of this year in the US. If this is the case, as I think it will be, Ireland will not be in a position to come out of recession for at least 2 years, depending on many factors, in the short term, the success or failure of NAMA is most important. In the long term, i.e. how will Ireland’s economy be performing in 2015+ is dependent on the outcome of the next general election. The Labour Party in government would be toxic for our Nation’s future, massive cuts need to be made to expenditure across the board, Labour are incapable of doing this, also Labour want to nationalise The Banks which would guarantee, pardon the pun, that we take the full brunt of the burst property bubble, NAMA at least has some potential to reduce the pain. I fear that the Irish people will be selfish and vote for a party that promises job security for some and no reduction in social welfare, if this is the case in the short term we will be "comfortable" but we would be crippled in the long run. Fine Gael offer the greatest hope for our economy, but will more than likely go into coalition with Labour, which I think will fall apart at the first hurdle, the debut budget. I'll vote Finna Fail, because I think NAMA is our best option and because I hope that they will form a rainbow coalition that will exclude Labour.

When will the recession end?

If Labour don't get into government will see sustained growth from 2015 onwards.

If Labour does get into power, by 2015 the IMF will, most definitely be in Ireland, and I for one, would rather that Somali Pirates took control of our Nation than the IMF, at least then we know we’re getting held for ransom.

Don't get me started on Sinn Fein.

cormywormy

liberal wrote: »

The consensus is that the recession will end in the 3rd quarter of this year in the US. If this is the case, as I think it will be, Ireland will not be in a position to come out of recession for at least 2 years, depending on many factors, in the short term, the success or failure of NAMA is most important. In the long term, i.e. how will Ireland’s economy be performing in 2015+ is dependent on the outcome of the next general election. The Labour Party in government would be toxic for our Nation’s future, massive cuts need to be made to expenditure across the board, Labour are incapable of doing this, also Labour want to nationalise The Banks which would guarantee, pardon the pun, that we take the full brunt of the burst property bubble, NAMA at least has some potential to reduce the pain. I fear that the Irish people will be selfish and vote for a party that promises job security for some and no reduction in social welfare, if this is the case in the short term we will be "comfortable" but we would be crippled in the long run. Fine Gael offer the greatest hope for our economy, but will more than likely go into coalition with Labour, which I think will fall apart at the first hurdle, the debut budget. I'll vote Finna Fail, because I think NAMA is our best option and because I hope that they will form a rainbow coalition that will exclude Labour.

When will the recession end?

If Labour don't get into government will see sustained growth from 2015 onwards.

If Labour does get into power, by 2015 the IMF will, most definitely be in Ireland, and I for one, would rather that Somali Pirates took control of our Nation than the IMF, at least then we know we’re getting held for ransom.

Don't get me started on Sinn Fein.

Very good post

2015 thats a long while away. You think the recession will last that lenght if labour dont get in. I see england is nearly out of recession allready.

maidie

Hi All,
I was like the other poster who isn't effected...that is until out of the blue 2 weeks ago was advised of a cost saving restructure that will require reduction in staff in my department. Talk about panic, I never thought for a moment my job was not safe as we were busy all of the time. You just don't know whats going to happen. I expect to get my redundency notice in the next week, anyway the ironic thing is I thought I was so secure I gave up a handy part-time job I had which earned me luxury things like weekends away etc., I had also used my savings to bail out 2 family members when the going got tough for them and bought an expensive car which I still have 2 more years to pay on. I reckon the recession will last another 5 years to be honest. In the meantime I am on a wing and a prayer like thousands of others. The morale of the story is you can't be too cocky regardless of where you work or your position on the corporate ladder:(

eamonnm79

liberal wrote: »

The consensus is that the recession will end in the 3rd quarter of this year in the US. If this is the case, as I think it will be, Ireland will not be in a position to come out of recession for at least 2 years, depending on many factors, in the short term, the success or failure of NAMA is most important. In the long term, i.e. how will Ireland’s economy be performing in 2015+ is dependent on the outcome of the next general election. The Labour Party in government would be toxic for our Nation’s future, massive cuts need to be made to expenditure across the board, Labour are incapable of doing this, also Labour want to nationalise The Banks which would guarantee, pardon the pun, that we take the full brunt of the burst property bubble, NAMA at least has some potential to reduce the pain. I fear that the Irish people will be selfish and vote for a party that promises job security for some and no reduction in social welfare, if this is the case in the short term we will be "comfortable" but we would be crippled in the long run. Fine Gael offer the greatest hope for our economy, but will more than likely go into coalition with Labour, which I think will fall apart at the first hurdle, the debut budget. I'll vote Finna Fail, because I think NAMA is our best option and because I hope that they will form a rainbow coalition that will exclude Labour.

When will the recession end?

If Labour don't get into government will see sustained growth from 2015 onwards.

If Labour does get into power, by 2015 the IMF will, most definitely be in Ireland, and I for one, would rather that Somali Pirates took control of our Nation than the IMF, at least then we know we’re getting held for ransom.

Don't get me started on Sinn Fein.

Jesus I thought I was bad for sweeping generalisations. "The consensus" I would argue the consensus you are looking to in this case are extreemly biased towards making positive predictions. Remember most of the same consensus think that consumer confidence is paramount to a recovery.
As for making economic outlooks for 6 years in advance in our current economic climate, give me a break.
I agree with roubini that there is going to be a further dip when the 2year quantitive easing bonds reach maturity.
All the political anti labour stuff doesnt wash. It was FF that allowed the large wage increases to occour in the Public sector so they dont have a good record when it comes to public sector pay responsibility.
If Labour do get in it will be with FG. Tis will mean they can use their lack of fulll power to appease union leaders.
The best option would have been to let anglo go to the wall last september. Labour were the only ones who went with their gut instinct and voted against the Guarantee. I remember gilmores comment on the morning of the 30 of sept. "If this goes wrong the country is sunk"

liberal

cormywormy wrote: »

Very good post

2015 thats a long while away. You think the recession will last that lenght if labour dont get in. I see england is nearly out of recession allready.

we cant be compared to England who have their own central bank, and can spend their way out. We here have to wait for a normalisation of our national markets before we can start to recover, this will take some time, housing prices are yet to bottom out, I predict with 24 months that houses will be selling for COST PRICE OR LESS, then this will be followed by a progressive rise peaking in about 10 years, but not to previous celtic tiger levels (it will be a great time to by a house, if you have cash money). Once a normalistation has occured Ireland's ability to spend will determine our economic success or failure, we still have an exceptional credit rating, AA, which is extremely good despite the media frenzy when we got downgraded, the big risk to our rating is......

As an aside I had a good idea the other day, and seeing as this is my only political outlet......... Irish citizens working in Ireland who work a full 37 hour week on minimum wage should be given a €100 weekly supplement, this would level the playing field for the Irish in Ireland to work the jobs that are still mainly occupied by migrants, these migrants have contributed hugely to the success of Ireland but they have an unfair advantage over Irish workers because they work to an end, i.e. to go home and buy a house, this allows them to happily work even the worst jobs while their future is bright, an Irish worker in these jobs has little going for them, I think the supplement would level the playing field, get more Irish people into low wage jobs in Ireland. The cost to government would be offset by the money retention in the state.

liberal

eamonnm79 wrote: »

Jesus I thought I was bad for sweeping generalisations. "The consensus" I would argue the consensus you are looking to in this case are extreemly biased towards making positive predictions. Remember most of the same consensus think that consumer confidence is paramount to a recovery.
As for making economic outlooks for 6 years in advance in our current economic climate, give me a break.
I agree with roubini that there is going to be a further dip when the 2year quantitive easing bonds reach maturity.
All the political anti labour stuff doesnt wash. It was FF that allowed the large wage increases to occour in the Public sector so they dont have a good record when it comes to public sector pay responsibility.
If Labour do get in it will be with FG. Tis will mean they can use their lack of fulll power to appease union leaders.
The best option would have been to let anglo go to the wall last september. Labour were the only ones who went with their gut instinct and voted against the Guarantee. I remember gilmores comment on the morning of the 30 of sept. "If this goes wrong the country is sunk"

no your right, lets do the labour thing and not make advanced economic outlooks, as long as the public servants keep their jobs and I get my dole money everything will be fine and if things dont work out the IMF will rescue us

Time Magazine

liberal wrote: »

no your right, lets do the labour thing and not make advanced economic outlooks, as long as the public servants keep their jobs and I get my dole money everything will be fine and if things dont work out the IMF will rescue us

This isn't the Politics forum.

SLUSK

There will be stagflation, that is high unemployment AND high inflation. Guess I should put my money where my mouth is and by some commodities based stocks, like miners and oil companies.

Will probably call my bank soon and do that.