Model mood thread - warning, ramp ahead!!

Supercell

Folks, please put all your forecasts and model "feelings" in here please.
Feel free to ramp away to your hearts content at that snowfest in T+386 thats nailed on!!
As always, be nice

Supercell

Favourable 850's

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

Nice little channel low

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

I reckon >100 metres could see more than a little snow from this.
Camera at the ready

M.T. Cranium

At least there's a chance of something white falling during the next week. The GFS reloads the cold too, some other models don't even need to, as they hold the cold ridge longer.

I think this winter so far has been a case of many near misses for Ireland, plenty of cold nights, can't see this going on too much longer without turning to snow at some point.

Deep Easterly

It's only 324hrs away.

ECM this morning was appalling in fi. High pressure to the near south getting ready to unleash a **** load of weak warm fronts over the country. I wager that with all the chopping and changing in FI lately regarding the models, that this particular forecast will come to pass. And with pressure never falling below 1024mbs despite the drizzle, you can be sure that extension of the Azores High will destroy yet another storm season.

The weather in this country is becoming unbearable. Just constant, eternal blandness, everyday...:mad:

Edit: Chart I speak of:

200motels

This model for Thursday week looks good and the ones after looks even better, but the way the models are changing from one day to the next it's hard to believe them.

Snowaddict

Nice FI Eye Canday on the GFS 06Z Parallel Output this morning.

All of it beginning 180 hours away of course. :D

Either way, its nice to see this run show bitter easterlies and a true Scandi high, just a shame its in FI.

SA.

Indeed it might be enough to warm us up moscow style in FI

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Moskau_ens.png?6767676767

Supercell

Tbh, my house is nut achingly cold by now..a few weeks of mild will do just fine if snow aint coming. My bleedin' bedroom is 10°C..I cannot sleep with a cold nose

200motels

The model for next Monday looks good for cold weather.

ninebeanrows

Supercell wrote: »

Tbh, my house is nut achingly cold by now..a few weeks of mild will do just fine if snow aint coming. My bleedin' bedroom is 10°C..I cannot sleep with a cold nose

Yup my bedrooms a disaster, i need 2 blankies this weather but the head being cold is a nuisance.

Perhaps some signs that the return to mild weather wont last long with average/colder weather returning towards middle of next week.

Mr Benevolent

Newest run is interesting:

Danno

Now now Confab, be nice! :P

sirpsycho

48hrs from now...



ps. A good site that explains the various model parameters from the http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html site is:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/

Snowaddict

Just a quick post from me. There appears to be a lot of pessimism now that we are leaving the cold spell, but I still think there is a lot to be optimisitc about. Ok, we are now entering a more mobile spell of weather, but that's not to say it will be continuous. Even if there is an atlantic influence for a good while, thats not to suggest that there won't be wintry possiblities.

Since this is the model mood thread I am going to post regarding the possibility of height rises to our Northeast towards the back end of next week. There has been a lot of uncertainty on the outputs in recent days, even for the more reliable timeframe.

These have been shown cleary on some of the latest model outputs, including UKMO, GME and of course the ever varying GFS.

Now only a few outputs have shown these height rises to be robust enough to exert any influence on the weather of the British Isles, but its something worth keeping an eye on either way.

GFS 18Z Parallel Run Tonight Suggets 1030mb high over Scandi region at T+192, but subsequently shunts the block eastward thereafter. There is a strong probability at this point that this may well be the outcome because the jet may be too active and may overpower this block.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-0-192.png?18

Another possible trend that has been hinted at is the possiblity of cold zonality on some of the latest GFS outputs. This would have to get into a very reliable timeframe before being credible, because of the precariousness of getting proper cold zonality. However, if it did occur, it could very well deliver in terms of wintriness for many areas.

Again, several recent GFS Operational and GFS Parallel outputs have displayed this possiblity.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-2-324.png?18

Also, for those feeling very downbeat at this time, I would like to refer you to this post, it may offer a glimmer of hope for this month if you are after wintriness at some point during January .

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=52387&view=findpost&p=1419907

It is a certainty that we will be warming up (In relative terms compared to the recent very cold spell) over the weekend with a more mobile pattern, but thats not by any means suggesting an entirely mild January. Even with a mobile pattern, there are always opportunities for PM or Polar Maritime incursions.

Stay positive, the winter has been very good to excellent so far in terms of cold and its not over by any means yet.

Regards to all from the ever optimisitc Snowaddict.

Note: The Links I posted above for charts change with every run, so they may not demonstrate on the next few runs what I have talked about above. All of the above charts are based on the 18Z outputs, Friday 09th Jan 2009.

Danno

Good post SA. Hopefully something to become of it...

force eleven

GFS 6z shows LP sytems for next week diving to the south of us, from Tuesday/Wednesday.If that happens it will be interesting.Cold rain more than likely, but who knows? With an East wind you never know.
A bit of mobility is needed IMO to keep the weather interesting, its been nice for the last 2 and 1/2 weeks but time for a change!;)

arctictree

GFS 12z has an interesting chart at t+108 :



If you looked at that chart in isolation you might think that a mad cold spell would happen after it. Unfortunately it just seems to disappear over the next few runs. I wonder why that happens - too much activity in the Atlantic maybe?

Too much azores air/western france air influence on that south easterly anyway.

The "high" in scandy is perfectly positioned though if only it was 25 to 35 mb's stronger.
At 1020 it's as good as not there.

Danno

The default mode of the GFS is a raging Atlantic and zonal patterns. I have not looked at any models as of yet today, will wait for the 18z, but I feel the ECM or the UKMO will give better clues as to what will be the outcome of the week ahead.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Too much azores air/western france air influence on that south easterly anyway.

The "high" in scandy is perfectly positioned though if only it was 25 to 35 mb's stronger.
At 1020 it's as good as not there.

Agree with everything except about the azores influence on that low. What is winding that low shown on the chart discussed is a cool polar maritime WNW clashing with bank of unstable air off the western coast of France. The relatively warm waters where this clash takes place is also helping to stir things up. The Azores influence is being diverted SE due to this on that chart thankfully, and is for once playing no part, which gives the chart an unusual look about it.

However, while ECM was the first to show this set up a few days back, they now have the same low more to the west of us, with only a secondary to the near south. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. All the same, I don't see anything incredibly exciting on the charts this evening, except once again in the ECMWF FI, which is insisting on a cool to cold zonality to bring us into the last 3rd of January.

200motels

What do ye make of this model for next Thursday?

Danno

Mild and wet at first, becoming much cooler and showery...

200motels

Danno wrote: »

Mild and wet at first, becoming much cooler and showery...

Thanks Danno. Some of the later models for the following week are interesting for cold weather but that's a long way off.

arctictree

Ahhhh - Just looked at the 12z GFS. Mild westerlies right out to t+384!!

Gonzo

arctictree wrote: »

Ahhhh - Just looked at the 12z GFS. Mild westerlies right out to t+384!!

It doesnt get much more depressing:( looks like the rest of January is appauling for us cold and snow lovers... hopefully February will bring a flake or 2.

Supercell

I'm escaping to southern China next month, which means you all will be buried under 5 feet of snow in a '47'esque winter.
That said i'll be wairing a t-shirt and working on my tan at the same time ..

chalkie

I've just realised that the snow potential in the ECM long range charts is directly proportional to the amount of Tullamore Dew consumed.

On that basis I have decided to consume a lot of the 'Dew'and I'm beginning to like what I see on the ECM...

Will Hand has also posted on uk.sci.weather and while the latest run might be an outlier if it does hold water (not whiskey!) then things could be very interesting indeed.

Whatever any outcome I'm mellow and enjoying the renewed vigour in the weather after what was a nice cold but boring spell!!

Interesting weather, eh?

Joe

Supercell

chalkie wrote: »

Will Hand has also posted on uk.sci.weather and while the latest run might be an outlier if it does hold water (not whiskey!) then things could be very interesting indeed.

He's posted there many times over many years, whats your point?
I know he's a pro meteorologist but have to say that my overriding impression is that he belongs in the snow hope-casters group over a realist-caster group..
When Will forecasts snow i check the charts and downgrade by about 50% and then reckon I'm getting close to realistic.

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

He's posted there many times over many years, whats your point?
I know he's a pro meteorologist but have to say that my overriding impression is that he belongs in the snow hope-casters group over a realist-caster group..
When Will forecasts snow i check the charts and downgrade by about 50% and then reckon I'm getting close to realistic.

damn you supercell you party pooper. feck off to China already so we can get some snow;)

chalkie

Supercell wrote: »

He's posted there many times over many years, whats your point?

The content, Supercell, not the personality. He makes a point about what the models show and he has some experience as even you recognise. I do acknowledge he "ramps" a fair bit however I would listen to him sooner than some other rampers that appear from time to time.

If people are interested in seeing views expressed by others I was merely pointing to one source as a reference. What's your point?

Supercell

chalkie wrote: »

If people are interested in seeing views expressed by others I was merely pointing to one source as a reference. What's your point?

My point is that having read Will's forecasts for several years now its clear that when snow is a possibility that Will's forecast accuracy drops as hope overtakes sense.

Danno

Anyone got a link to this forecast?

Chalkie, the use of the word What at the start of your sentence beginning with "Will Hand... " would have removed any ambigiouty to your post! :P

chalkie

Sorry, Danno, maybe I was taking a lot for granted!

Here is WHAT Will posted;

"You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's (11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next week threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two."

chalkie

Supercell wrote: »

My point is that having read Will's forecasts for several years now its clear that when snow is a possibility that Will's forecast accuracy drops as hope overtakes sense.

I can see where you're coming from but remember he does forecast generally for his own neck of the woods. My own point was that when someone like Will, with his experience, makes note of a potential model trend I pay attention. The forecast detail, as you rightly point out, may not be so accurate especially beyond Dartmoor.

Joe

P.S. I've been reading his posts for several years too!

Deep Easterly

chalkie wrote: »

Sorry, Danno, maybe I was taking a lot for granted!

Here is WHAT Will posted;

"You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's (11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next week threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two."

Well, since this is a "ramp" thread, I see no harm in posting the situation that Hand fella is yapping about:

ECMWF 12z 216hrs:



Since that chart is so far out there in fantasy Ireland, an ole ramp is no harm since it is all we have. It will probably never come to pass, but it is a great look chart though. (Is this around the time Supercell is headin to China? :eek::D)

LEIN

Where has SA gone? He normally has some good news about possible wintriness.

Found him He is just one below me.

Snowaddict

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Well, since this is a "ramp" thread, I see no harm in posting the situation that Hand fella is yapping about:

ECMWF 12z 216hrs:

Fantastic chart Deep Easterly . What a snowfest that could turn into if precip was available, which it could well be given the moisture laden source . Although its in FI, there have been subtle hints on the various NWP outputs in recent days for potentially wintry conditions for the period from around the 17-20 January or so. It may come to nothing, but things do look a tad interesting at the moment. Of course its in FI, but the dreaded Atlantic may yet deliver for us.

Snowaddict

Damo9090 wrote: »

Where has SA gone? He normally has some good news about possible wintriness.

Oh I'm here Damo, just catching up on the latest outputs . Some quite interesting one's indeed. It now appears that that transient Scandi High for next week won't deliver anything for Ireland, so I think its a case of possibly looking to the north / northwest. Bearing in mind that my last major snowfall came from the Northwest, even here in Southeast Ireland, I wouldn't mind these ECM charts coming off.

The only danger with this type of setup is the modification of the flow given the large sea track. However, I think things look a tad interesting at this point. Lets give it a few more days to see how things pan out. If this were an easterly with a very cold source being projected I would be more confident of snowfall if these charts were to potentially come off.

At this point I would say there is a fairly good chance of snowfall in some parts at least before the end of January. Of course I could be wrong, but things do look a tad interesting at this point, albeit in FI.

One more encouraging element from the ECM output tonight is that it has taken fairly cold zonality to the T+168 timemark. If we can get these charts into the more reliable without a terrible amount of modification, then I may even be tempted to ramp quite a bit .

Outlook at this point is very interesting from a wintry potential IMHO.

chalkie

Hey, SA.

Are you watching the 18z GFS? That High is proving even more stubborn on that run!!

However, we've been here before and it is the GFS albeit at T+132 so NOT so far out.

The past few weeks have knocked my faith in the GFS but it can still be a good source of debate. The morning's ECM and UKMO will tell us a lot.

I'm still inclined to look to the NW and N for excitement our way over the next couple of weeks although parts of SE England might cling on to some continental influence for a little longer.


Joe

Deep Easterly

Snowaddict wrote: »

Fantastic chart Deep Easterly . What a snowfest that could turn into if precip was available, which it could well be given the moisture laden source . Although its in FI, there have been subtle hints on the various NWP outputs in recent days for potentially wintry conditions for the period from around the 17-20 January or so. It may come to nothing, but things do look a tad interesting at the moment. Of course its in FI, but the dreaded Atlantic may yet deliver for us.

Yep SA, a lot of talk about this vigourous cold wave exiting Canada over the last few days. While that does seem almost certain to happen, models will no doubt chop and change as to how this unstable and cold airmass will effect us down the line, if at all.

That ECM chart looks great though, and I would hope something like that will play off. While it does have a lot of snow potential for Ireland, it also has a lot of thunder potential too. Some of the most spectacular and awe inspiring thunder and lightning storms I have ever seen have come from a set up not unlike that one. If it snows while the black thunder booms, then that is just a splendid bonus!

Snowaddict

Might be nothing but the 18Z GFS has certainly intensified that Scandi High.
Now that low is probably too strong and would probably overpower the block, but thats a decent block at 1040mb, and definately a trend towards the UKMO recent outputs.

If that low was a little less deeper of further south, then I daren't say what might happen.

This is but one run and given its GFS I'm far from convinced, but an interesting development to say the least.

Edit: Just saw your post up there now Joe .

This T+168 chart is very good IMO, not far from a classic battleground Scenario. I'm very surprised by this output tonight TBH and I'm treating this run with a pinch of salt. Although it does show cold zonality kicking in around the 18th .

forkassed

Some fun storms coming our way by the looks of things:)

@Damo

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

1.That is not a scandi high...It's also not a blocking high in the usual definition of the term meaning blocking the atlantic from us and near Europe:rolleyes:
It's a variation of the siberian high/Russian/Latvia lithuania high.

If it were to come off though it would give a shot of very warm sourced air right up past western scandi which might aid a push west of that high or the building a scandi high properly positioned for easterlies here.
2. 850 temps have to be -10 at least for atlantic sourced snow at sea level.Possible but a lowish likelyhood.The sea track looks too long in SA's chart.Even for a Northwesterly,the flow would need to be nearer Iceland.
From experience,the last few times there was serious atlantic snow showers...it was caused by a direct northerly that veered East to become a westerly near Ireland.


@Damo

By the way a northwesterly rarely if ever delivers snow to the East south of Dublin and Kilkenny for instance would most likely be dry but cold

danni2

Well looking at the latest gfs 12z looks like a polar maritime air is on the way at the weekend, so conditions may be cold enough for snow

ninebeanrows

Interesting times ahead in the model watching wing of things.

We really looked like we were heading into mild atlantic driven abyss a few days ago but that stubborn Scandy High progged now by GFS and UKM Could prove interesting.

There could be some interesting synoptics charted for T+7 days in the coming days.

danni2

danni2 wrote: »

Well looking at the latest gfs 12z looks like a polar maritime air is on the way at the weekend, so conditions may be cold enough for snow

Above a 1000ft asl probably.
Trouble is,it's about 60% maratime and only 40 or less polar due to the long sea track and the inclination of the sea track.
The latter exposes it to too much of the warmer atlantic en route.
As I said above,you need a routing via iceland to change that around for the better ie 60% polar 30 to 40% maratime.

No holding of breaths...

ninebeanrows

Lovely different charts, hope they come off.

Nice bitter North westerlies with heavy squally wintry showers in a gale.

Interesting charts, with pressure always high towards the northeast and sliding southerly moving LP's

Cold zonality could be fun.

Ensembles show 850hpas mean to -7c for a few days.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Above a 1000ft asl probably.
Trouble is,it's about 60% maratime and only 40 or less polar due to the long sea track and the inclination of the sea track.
The latter exposes it to too much of the warmer atlantic en route.
As I said above,you need a routing via iceland to change that around for the better ie 60% polar 30 to 40% maratime.

No holding of breaths...

True, but it can snow during the nightime hours under such conditions, that is my experience of similar set ups. The warmer waters of the Atlantic can initiate huge showers, which in themselves can create snow at lower levels due to the heavy downdrafts. While a route via Iceland may be more beneficial for daytime snow, I am not complaining about the current models.

Secondly, I am not sure I like the way this thread is heading. It was opened by Supercell who saw the need of some light relief from the model outlook thread and as a more fun version of it. If I see the fun being tramped upon, I will have no hesitation in locking it.

Danno

A big warm up in Western USA and West Canada. I wonder what the knock on effects of this down the line will be for us... MT Cranium, Black Briar, anyone to elabourate?

10-10-20

Lightning & thunder just 1 min ago - Sandyford, D18.

LEIN

10-10-20 wrote: »

Lightning & thunder just 1 min ago - Sandyford, D18.

Did you not just post that in current weather thread?

The models are always perfect in F.I its a pain in the *rse the way they never turn out that way!