My 10 Places for Money in 2009

pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2009

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 32.90

2. Fresenius SE (FRE) - 34.50

3. Solera (SLH) - 21.49

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 3.63

5. Marriott 2013 Investment Grade Bonds (yielding 12%)

6. Owens Illinois (OI) - 25.38

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 14.01

8. Invitrogen (LIFE) - 21.00

9. AMEX Oil ETF (USO) - 30.92

10. The British Pound (GBP) - 1.0234

Happy New Year

Good Luck


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daveirl

This post has been deleted.

pocketdooz

Fresenius - I think we will see the benefits of Fres. Kabi's acquisition of APP in the US coming through next year and the sales of Heparin tied to that.

Also, I think we will see upside from the Fres. Biotech unit (see news last week) which is 100% upside really.


FSE only own c.34% of FME so you really only get the benefit of the dividends which filter straight thorugh to EBITDA. FME as a stand alone company is a class act too. I am a big fan of both companies and both sets of management so I own both.

I think 2009 will be a year people stay in defensive plays, not shift out of them.



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dunkamania

pocketdooz wrote: »

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2009

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 32.90

2. Fresenius SE (FRE) - 34.50

3. Solera (SLH) - 21.49

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 3.63

5. Marriott 2013 Investment Grade Bonds (yielding 12%)

6. Owens Illinois (OI) - 25.38

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 14.01

8. Invitrogen (LIFE) - 21.00

9. AMEX Oil ETF (USO) - 30.92

10. The British Pound (GBP) - 1.0234

Happy New Year

Good Luck

.

Is this theoretical or what you are actually doing?
I see Marriotts yielding at 9.5%, am I missing something? Also the Mariott five year CDS is not trading at Investment Grade levels.
I dont know the individual stocks, but it sounds like you are quite bullish for 2009.

pocketdooz

dunkamania wrote: »

Is this theoretical or what you are actually doing?
I see Marriotts yielding at 9.5%, am I missing something? Also the Mariott five year CDS is not trading at Investment Grade levels.
I dont know the individual stocks, but it sounds like you are quite bullish for 2009.

Marriott's Feb 2013 , yield to maturity is 12.6%, (price 77.97 and coupon 5.625%)

S&P Rating is BBB - which is investment grade.

Most of the stocks there are defensive plays (healthcare, bottle manufacturer, cable provider) and the only one that is not is TINY which is a fund of biotech and nanotech stocks traded in NYC which is currently trading about 30% below its NAV.

I'm not very bullish on 2009


This is actually where my money is, not theoretically.
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daveirl

This post has been deleted.

pocketdooz

Overall Portfolio up 8% from start of the year.

One loser

Nine Gainers

Funny, the loser (Owens-Illinois) is about my favourite out of all them . . . expect a rally after results call on the 29th of January.


Some notables

Fresenius SE up 18.2% to 40.75

Liberty Global up 28.0% to 17.95

Invitrogen (LIFE) up 15.8% to 24.32

Solera up 9.5% to 23.54


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Bytheway

Pocketdooz, How do plan on investing in the British pound ?
Are you expecting the pound to gain strength soon ?

pocketdooz

Bytheway wrote: »

Pocketdooz, How do plan on investing in the British pound ?
Are you expecting the pound to gain strength soon ?

Just buy Sterling

No leverage


I expected it to come off the parity base it was at.

Raskolnikov

Here's my three picks.

1. Electronic Systems Technology (ELST.OTC): I guess this is what you'd call an ultra-micro cap stock considering that it has a market cap of only $1.4 million. The reason why I love this company is because it's got very capable management who don't take home silly salaries or get ridiculous stock options. A lot of the stock is held by directors, so it's in their own interests to keep the company ticking along. It's also interesting to note that legendary value investor, Mario Gabelli, holds a small stake in the company. The company has a negligible amount of debt and a decent pile of cash on the balance sheet. The only downsides are that because this is such a small company, it's extremely illiquid.

2. Kilkenny to win the All-Ireland Hurling Championships (if you can get close to evens); Realistically, there are only five teams who can even compete for the hurling this year, Kilkenny, Tipperary, Galway, Waterford and Cork. Galway are too inexperienced with Cork and Waterford having been shown up several times before by this Kilkenny team. Tipperary are regarded as a team on the up, I still can't see them having enough this year.

3. Electro-Sensors (ELSE.NASDAQ): Like ELST, this company has excellent management, a strong balance sheet and has a decent history of earnings. Like ELST, it has another market-outperforming investor (Daniel Zeff) who has a sizeable stake in the company. With an excellent dividend history and considerable chance for upside, you won't go far wrong with this outfit.

mickdw

pocketdooz wrote: »

Just buy Sterling

No leverage


I expected it to come off the parity base it was at.

Can you see sterling heading towards parity again in near future?

pocketdooz

mickdw wrote: »

Can you see sterling heading towards parity again in near future?

Probably - but by the end of the year I expect it to be further from parity.


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mickdw

pocketdooz wrote: »

Probably - but by the end of the year I expect it to be further from parity.


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Thanks

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Here's my three picks.

1. Electronic Systems Technology (ELST.OTC): I guess this is what you'd call an ultra-micro cap stock considering that it has a market cap of only $1.4 million. The reason why I love this company is because it's got very capable management who don't take home silly salaries or get ridiculous stock options. A lot of the stock is held by directors, so it's in their own interests to keep the company ticking along. It's also interesting to note that legendary value investor, Mario Gabelli, holds a small stake in the company. The company has a negligible amount of debt and a decent pile of cash on the balance sheet. The only downsides are that because this is such a small company, it's extremely illiquid.

2. Kilkenny to win the All-Ireland Hurling Championships (if you can get close to evens); Realistically, there are only five teams who can even compete for the hurling this year, Kilkenny, Tipperary, Galway, Waterford and Cork. Galway are too inexperienced with Cork and Waterford having been shown up several times before by this Kilkenny team. Tipperary are regarded as a team on the up, I still can't see them having enough this year.

3. Electro-Sensors (ELSE.NASDAQ): Like ELST, this company has excellent management, a strong balance sheet and has a decent history of earnings. Like ELST, it has another market-outperforming investor (Daniel Zeff) who has a sizeable stake in the company. With an excellent dividend history and considerable chance for upside, you won't go far wrong with this outfit.

Gambling forum?

amacca

pocketdooz wrote: »

Overall Portfolio up 8% from start of the year.

One loser

Nine Gainers

Funny, the loser (Owens-Illinois) is about my favourite out of all them . . . expect a rally after results call on the 29th of January.


Some notables

Fresenius SE up 18.2% to 40.75

Liberty Global up 28.0% to 17.95

Invitrogen (LIFE) up 15.8% to 24.32

Solera up 9.5% to 23.54


.

Sorry to be nosey (you can always just refuse to tell me though). What criteria did you use to pick your stocks/funds.

was it all fundamental analysis, are you using market timing etc.

Its probably evident from your picks but do you use a primarily growth or value strategy or a mix.

What criteria are you going to use to sell? Is it still growing at 8%


I had what I thought was a fairly well diversified portfolio (fantasy/no actual money invested) which made about $500 a day (no brokers fees, taxes deducted) from the 2nd Jan to the 6th and has been losing money almost every trading day since. Obviously the recent drops in the nasdaq, sp500 etc took their toll.

Portfolio below, I selected stocks based on what I consider to be a growth strategy

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. Knight Capital Group Inc. Hawk Corporation Insteel Industries, Inc. Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Titan Machinery Inc. Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. Sohu.com Inc. Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) Compass Minerals International, Inc.
Just curious what other peoples strategies are ....if you use growth or value, fundamentals or market timing or if you believe aspects of all these approaches are useful.

Sorry if Im subverting this thread OP.

pocketdooz

amacca wrote: »

Sorry to be nosey (you can always just refuse to tell me though). What criteria did you use to pick your stocks/funds.

was it all fundamental analysis, are you using market timing etc.

Its probably evident from your picks but do you use a primarily growth or value strategy or a mix.

What criteria are you going to use to sell? Is it still growing at 8%


I had what I thought was a fairly well diversified portfolio (fantasy/no actual money invested) which made about $500 a day (no brokers fees, taxes deducted) from the 2nd Jan to the 6th and has been losing money almost every trading day since. Obviously the recent drops in the nasdaq, sp500 etc took their toll.

Portfolio below, I selected stocks based on what I consider to be a growth strategy

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. Knight Capital Group Inc. Hawk Corporation Insteel Industries, Inc. Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Titan Machinery Inc. Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. Sohu.com Inc. Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) Compass Minerals International, Inc.
Just curious what other peoples strategies are ....if you use growth or value, fundamentals or market timing or if you believe aspects of all these approaches are useful.

Sorry if Im subverting this thread OP.

Briefly . . .

Here is my thinking (obviously I work in the industry and know these companies well . . . )

In my opinion you want to be in steady, lowly-levered, cash-generative companies with strong market share, low fixed costs and a focus on the emerging markets of South America, Eastern Europe and the Middle and Far East.

Ones to look at if you have time and the inclinatation are Fresenius Medical Care - they are the dominant world providers of dialysis machines needed by people with kidney probelms, have annual sales of €7 billion, are the number one or two player in every market in which they operate and have very high (30-40%) and growing margins.

Solera (audatex) are the number one global provider of software and services which auto insurance companies use to process accident claims. They are present in 50 markets and are growing rapidly in massive highly populated countries whose govt's are only currently bringing in legislation legally requiring their citizens to hold auto-insurance (india and china = 2.5 billion people buying cars and getting insured) They have huge margins, low debt, generate a ton of cash and are expanding around the world on the back of the global insurance companies.

Liberty Global (UPC in Europe / NTL in Ireland) are the global leader in the provision of broadband, digital TV and on-demand video in some of the most reliable markets in the world (US/Japan/Netherlands) - their business model is utility-like - it is extremly hard for customers to turnoff these services once they have them and are used to them (like electricity/gas etc). Their CEO is on of the best in the business, they generate a TON of cash every quarter and their only problem is what to do with it. Look for expanding margins, more offerings of triple play (internet/phone and tv in one), higher prices due to faster internet speeds etc.

these are the types of co's that will prosper on the next 1 - 3 years


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Baird

pocketdooz wrote: »

Briefly . . .

Here is my thinking (obviously I work in the industry and know these companies well . . . )

In my opinion you want to be in steady, lowly-levered, cash-generative companies with strong market share, low fixed costs and a focus on the emerging markets of South America, Eastern Europe and the Middle and Far East.

Is the emerging market story not dead at this stage?

Diarmuid

Considering putting 100% into VT and not looking at it again for 20 years
BRK.B is always worth a look too though.

amacca

Tks Pocketdooz. I worked briefly in the industry. (low level stuff, fund valuations/ monkey work mostly) But I have been doing a bit of reading and testing various strategies lately so just curious what other peoples strategies/thinking in the real world are.

marathonic

Diarmuid wrote: »

Considering putting 100% into VT and not looking at it again for 20 years
BRK.B is always worth a look too though.

I've always had BRK.B on my watchlist too but I'm not quite sure. True, it's always outperformed the S&P. However, I get the feeling that you'll always be paying a 'Buffet Premium' on this one and it'll underperform once he leaves. Also, although it's has alot of good companies, it's also exposed to some very dodgy companies which it purchased too expensively. Also, everybody likes this stock and expects it to outperform. This is a bad sign in my books - although you could have said that at any time during the past few decades during which BRK has outperformed.

Slutmonkey57b

rarnes1 wrote: »

Gambling forum?

Uh huh. And the analysis put forward for his nongambliing stock picks is vastly different....

Climate Expert

The bed. Deflation rocks!

Raskolnikov

Slutmonkey57b wrote: »

Uh huh. And the analysis put forward for his nongambliing stock picks is vastly different....

Sheesh, lighten up, it was a bit of fun!

ranger4

crh, ryanair.

pocketdooz

Overall Portfolio up 5.3% from start of the year.

Two losers

Eight Gainers

Funny, the biggest loser (Owens-Illinois - down 13.4% YTD) is about my favourite out of all them . . . I expect a rally after the earnings release today at 4pm EST and the results call tomorrow.

The other loser is Harris and Harris, TINY, a nanotechnology fund based out of New York, that is still trading at a 20-30% discount to it's NAV.

Some notables

Fresenius SE up 8.7% to 37.50

Liberty Global up 13.4% to 15.89

Invitrogen (LIFE) up 22.3% to 25.68

Solera up 12.1% to 24.10



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daveirl

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pocketdooz

Owens Illinois reported Q4 and FY 2008 results.

Strong revenue growth for the full year to $7.9 billion from $7.5 billion.

Best EPS performance since the IPO in 1991.

Margins up but volumes down as expected.

Reduction in total debt of $380 million during the year.

Volumes of glass bottles expected to stay dampened during the bad economic times but this company is extremely resiliant.

Owens Illinois make or licence the manufacture of half the glass bottles in the world. Major customers are Diageo, SAB Miller and Anheuser Busch.

Stock up 3% on the news.

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pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2009 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2009)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 32.90 - down 8.8% to 30.00

2. Fresenius SE (FRE) - 34.50 - down 10.5% to 30.87

3. Solera (SLH) - 21.49 - up 10.7% to 23.80

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 3.63 - up 40.8% to 5.11

5. Marriott 2013 Investment Grade Bonds (yielding 12%) - (Implied) up 3.5%

6. Owens Illinois (OI) - 25.38 - down 28.3% to 18.19

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 14.01 - up 30.5% to 18.28

8. Invitrogen (LIFE) - 21.00 - up 61.8% to 33.97

9. AMEX Oil ETF (USO) - 30.92 - down 3.7% to 29.79

10. The British Pound (GBP) - 1.0234 - up 10.7% to 1.1333

Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2009 to April 17th 2009 was 10.7%

The main drags on the portfolio are obviously the two Fresenius companies and Owens Illinois, neither of which I am worried about in the short or long term. I think the sell-off in OI in February and March was too extreme and is pulling back well from there. The fear surrounding the Fresenius companies last month with regard to co-pay etc in the US was unwarranted imo. I expect to see both these companies recover their losses by the end of the year.

TINY has performed well on the back of some semblance of liquidity returning to the markets and a lot of talk in the US about Green Energy, Nanotech etc. The big problem that I could see for these guys going forward is the potential lack of funding available to their portfolio companies.

I am still bullish about USO and the British Pound from the levels they were at when we bought at the beginning of the year. Marriott bonds have traded up substantially from our purchase point but this model portfolio is YTM for this year as opposed to selling the bond and booking a profit.

Solera, I still think is a class company and am still bullish on it in the short and long term, especially the long-term.

The big winners have been Liberty Global and LIFE - both for very different reasons, LIFE too long to go into at mignight but the research is out there. Liberty Global is basically a utility-like cash-generating machine who is perfomring well in the cable-TV, Internet and telephone markets in Europe and around the world. It doesn't look like they are being impacted by the recession much and have good ability to increase prices and upsell services to existing customers.

That's about it. A 10.7% return in 3 and 1/2 months (up 5.3% as of early February) in a time when the markets are all over the place with a pretty diversified bunch of stocks.

Long may it last ! :P

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

pocketdooz

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Not as much as it sounds like it should have maybe?!

Can you send me some research?

daveirl

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A Random Walk

USO is a structural disaster as far as I'm concerned. As are most of the direct commodity ETFs.

pocketdooz

A Random Walk wrote: »

USO is a structural disaster as far as I'm concerned. As are most of the direct commodity ETFs.

Could you explain that please.

A Random Walk

pocketdooz wrote: »

Could you explain that please.

The link daveirl posted above should give plenty of background on the technical aspects and the same applies (as far as I can see) to most of the commodity ETFs. The alternative is to invest in ETNs which won't have the tracking error but carry additional credit risk (look at current happenings with RJA), or to invest in the ETFs which claim to follow commodity prices but actually invest in equities rather than commodities.

I fear that the ordinary investor could get sucked into investing in commodity ETFs thinking they are something they aren't. Some of the marketing is bordering on mis-selling in my opinion.

pocketdooz

pocketdooz wrote: »

6. Owens Illinois (OI) - 25.38 - down 28.3% to 18.19

The main drags on the portfolio are obviously the two Fresenius companies and Owens Illinois, neither of which I am worried about in the short or long term. I think the sell-off in OI in February and March was too extreme and is pulling back well from there.

Now at $26.25 a share - up 44% since April 17th - knew the sell-off was overdone.

Absolutely top class company.

Bytheway

Pocketdooz, would you consider the shares you picked to be growth shares and would you stick with them when we do emerge from this R. As I think you said before that they were defensive shares, but would you consider them to have good growth even when we are over the worst?

pocketdooz

Bytheway wrote: »

Pocketdooz, would you consider the shares you picked to be growth shares and would you stick with them when we do emerge from this R. As I think you said before that they were defensive shares, but would you consider them to have good growth even when we are over the worst?

These companies I would be happy to hold for the next five years

Fresenius Medical Care
Fresenius SE
Owens - Illinois
Solera

These ones I think were just undervalued because they were dragged down by the market.

Liberty Global
LIFE
The British Pound
Marriott Bonds

Oil (may have not picked an accurate copycat of WTI here but it should track it)

---

The big one that I love is Harris and Harris (TINY) - This is a company that I have followed for a few years and I think this could be $20 - $30 a share when this recession ends (2010/2011 ???) - once the credit markets open up and the nanotechnology, biotechnology and clean energy market booms after 2010/2011 this stock will be a huge winner. If you only do in depth research on one stock in the next year - let this be the one.

marathonic

Have you ever sold, or considered selling, options? Examples of what you could trade using your pick Owens-Illinois are:

1. If you think Owens-Illinois are a good long term bet and would consider buying more shares if they dropped, in the short term, to $21.50 from the current $24.91, you could sell a number of June Puts with a strike of $22.50. These are currently trading at $1 each and, as each option represents 100 shares, you would get $100 for each one you sell. Then, come June 19th (expiration day), if the shares are still above $22.50, you keep the $100 commission per option and, if the shares are below $22.50, you have to buy them at $22.50 (they'd end up costing you $21.50 as you'd already have your $100 commission from the option sale). This means the shares could drop 13.7% in the next month and you'd still be in profit.
2. If you think Owens-Illinois are going to fall over the next month (or you'd like to minimise your downside risk), you could sell a number of June Calls with a strike of $25. This means that, if OI stays at it's current level (or drops) by June 19th, you'd get to keep the $190 per option sold. If they rose above $25, you'd have to sell them at $25. However, as you got your $1.90 commission per Call option sold, you will have received $26.90 per share.

For Fresenius Medical Care, the June 40 Puts are selling at $4.20 ($420 per option sold). This means, if they stay above $40, you keep the $420 per option, if they drop below $40, you have to buy them at a cost to you of $35.80 - 10.5% below yesterdays close.

See my post in http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055563532 for details of a trade I made yesterday with ALL.

ixus

Marathonic, I think you should put in the risks involved here also. Especially for people who don't understand options.

The risk is that the shareprice could drop much more than expected. You might have sold puts at 22 but the share becomes worth 15. Then you're down 22-15 = 7x100 - selling of puts.

A large amount of options expire worthless, and it's said most of the money is made in selling options. However, there are still risks that can cost you dearly as many put sellers would have found out over the last two years. Naked out writing is very risky. Black Swan stuff etc

marathonic

ixus wrote: »

Marathonic, I think you should put in the risks involved here also. Especially for people who don't understand options.

The risk is that the shareprice could drop much more than expected. You might have sold puts at 22 but the share becomes worth 15. Then you're down 22-15 = 7x100 - selling of puts.

A large amount of options expire worthless, and it's said most of the money is made in selling options. However, there are still risks that can cost you dearly as many put sellers would have found out over the last two years. Naked out writing is very risky. Black Swan stuff etc

Yeah sorry, I should have added more info about the risks - especially with the calls.

If you sell Puts, you should play it safe by over-extending yourself. Personally, I only sell Puts on shares that I'm willing to buy at current prices and for which I have the cash available if they're assigned to me. As an example, I currrently had $3,000 cash in my account. I like ALL shares which were trading at $24.23 yesterday. I also know that I'll be adding $1,000 cash next month. I could have bought 124 shares yesterday but, instead, I sold 2 June Puts at a $22 strike for $110 each. If they're assigned to me, I've the cash to buy them and will be getting them at a 14% discount to todays prices. If they're not assigned, I keep the $220 and have a look at the prices of the various shares in my watchlist at that time to decide what to do. This is the safe way to play puts. Alot of beginners will sell, for example, 10 naked puts and think it's great bringing in $1100. They don't realise that they're exposed to the tune of $22,000 to the company which could, potentially, go bankrupt.

Selling calls is more dangerous as your losses are unlimited - a company could get a takeover bid and quadruple in value to, for example, $88 and you'd be forced to buy the shares at $88 and sell them at the strike price of your Call option. You should only sell Covered Calls, i.e. only sell calls for the companies that you hold the shares in already. This means that you collect your commissions but you limit your upside,

ixus

marathonic wrote: »

Yeah sorry, I should have added more info about the risks - especially with the calls.

Aye, it could look like money for nothing and your cheques for free to some people who browse here

wyndham

pocketdooz wrote: »

.............

That's about it. A 10.7% return in 3 and 1/2 months (up 5.3% as of early February) in a time when the markets are all over the place with a pretty diversified bunch of stocks.

Long may it last ! :P

Very enjoyable reading & indeed, long may it last.

Quick questions-Are you US based?
Do you give any thought/hedge any to the Euro/Dollar exchange risk?
Would you agree that the US dollar is going to weaken further?

For the record currently €1 = c.$1.36, roughly around where it was at the start of the year. Was down to c.$1.25 in feb.

DJDC

If you sell Puts, you should play it safe by over-extending yourself. Personally, I only sell Puts on shares that I'm willing to buy at current prices and for which I have the cash available if they're assigned to me. As an example, I currrently had $3,000 cash in my account. I like ALL shares which were trading at $24.23 yesterday. I also know that I'll be adding $1,000 cash next month. I could have bought 124 shares yesterday but, instead, I sold 2 June Puts at a $22 strike for $110 each. If they're assigned to me, I've the cash to buy them and will be getting them at a 14% discount to todays prices. If they're not assigned, I keep the $220 and have a look at the prices of the various shares in my watchlist at that time to decide what to do. This is the safe way to play puts. Alot of beginners will sell, for example, 10 naked puts and think it's great bringing in $1100. They don't realise that they're exposed to the tune of $22,000 to the company which could, potentially, go bankrupt.

Selling calls is more dangerous as your losses are unlimited - a company could get a takeover bid and quadruple in value to, for example, $88 and you'd be forced to buy the shares at $88 and sell them at the strike price of your Call option. You should only sell Covered Calls, i.e. only sell calls for the companies that you hold the shares in already. This means that you collect your commissions but you limit your upside,

If you are selling options on a large scale, I hope you know your greeks. Only a matter of time before over exposing yourself to ATM gamma gets you. If you know C++ and Matlab you can write up some code easy enough.Trading in options without a knowledge of Black-Scholes, volatility smiles etc. is a disaster waiting to happen.

pocketdooz

10 Places for my money, starting now for the full year 2009 (Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2009)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 32.90 - down 8.5% to 30.11

2. Fresenius SE (FRE) - 34.50 - up 1.4% 35.00

3. Solera (SLH) - 21.49 - up 7.7% to 23.14

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 3.63 - up 21.8% to 4.42

5. Marriott 2013 Investment Grade Bonds (yielding 12%) - (Implied) up 5.0%

6. Owens Illinois (OI) - 25.38 - up 13.4% to 28.79

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 14.01 - up 0.3% to 14.05

8. Invitrogen (LIFE) - 21.00 - up 84.7% to 38.78

9. AMEX Oil ETF (USO) - 30.92 - up 17.8% to 36.42

10. The British Pound (GBP) - 1.0234 - up 12.2% to 1.1483

Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2009 to June 1st 2009 is 14.1%

One loser out of ten - not bad considering.

In the same period, the Dow Jones I.A. is down 2.9% and the S&P 500 is up 1.9%.

Hope some of you are making money off this. Time to leave work for a 3 day break.

Good luck

pocketdooz

Well, we are half way through the year and here is the 2nd quarter end report



(Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2009)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 32.90 - down 2.3% to 32.15

2. Fresenius SE (FRE) - 34.50 - down 2.3% to 33.69

3. Solera (SLH) - 21.49 - up 20.7% to 25.94

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 3.63 - up 65.0% to 5.99

5. Marriott 2013 Investment Grade Bonds (yielding 12%) - (Implied) up 6.0%

6. Owens Illinois (OI) - 25.38 - up 14.1% to 28.96

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 14.01 - up 13.9% to 15.96

8. Invitrogen (LIFE) - 21.00 - up 99.8% to 41.95

9. AMEX Oil ETF (USO) - 30.92 - up 25.4% to 38.78

10. The British Pound (GBP) - 1.0234 - up 14.6% to 1.1732


Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2009 to June 30th 2009 is 20.7%

Two losers out of ten - both down 2.3% - Fresenius companies.

In the same period, the Dow Jones I.A. is down 2.5% and the S&P 500 is up 3.0%.

pirelli

pocketdooz wrote: »

Well, we are half way through the year and here is the 2nd quarter end report



(Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2009)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 32.90 - down 2.3% to 32.15

2. Fresenius SE (FRE) - 34.50 - down 2.3% to 33.69

3. Solera (SLH) - 21.49 - up 20.7% to 25.94

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 3.63 - up 65.0% to 5.99

5. Marriott 2013 Investment Grade Bonds (yielding 12%) - (Implied) up 6.0%

6. Owens Illinois (OI) - 25.38 - up 14.1% to 28.96

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 14.01 - up 13.9% to 15.96

8. Invitrogen (LIFE) - 21.00 - up 99.8% to 41.95

9. AMEX Oil ETF (USO) - 30.92 - up 25.4% to 38.78

10. The British Pound (GBP) - 1.0234 - up 14.6% to 1.1732


Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2009 to June 30th 2009 is 20.7%

Two losers out of ten - both down 2.3% - Fresenius companies.

In the same period, the Dow Jones I.A. is down 2.5% and the S&P 500 is up 3.0%.

They are good gains. I was very interested in TINY and have been following and surprised to see it has shot up in the last week,but would you not post the gains since the date of your last post rather than the when you bought them due to the volatility of the market since OCT 2008 it would be interesting to see how they are sizing up on a regular basis.

for anyone interested My latest picks were

TSTR 60% (launching a satellite into space on july 1st )
SPNG 30 % ( sponge bob sponges )
kaz -12% Kazakhstan oil field somewhere
Hott -5 %
WYY $$ Next investment

The market has been unkind the last week although tstr kept me afloat but the percentages are turning green.



Hey pocketdooz

mPhase Technologies, Inc Ticker: XDSL is a nano tech company that might interest you. It might be a good long. I have 4000 shares in it.

Latest..

The Research Report rates Harris & Harris as a Speculative Buy because at current valuation levels, with strong financials, and a strong management team, Harris represents a good opportunity for an investor to participate in the venture capital arena in the exciting field of nanotechnology. Harris has no debt and has investments in approximately 32 companies.

The Report states that Harris & Harris faces a number of risks noting that Charles Harris, a co-founder, Chairman and CEO, retired on 12/31/08. An extended recession could hurt their portfolio

pocketdooz

pocketdooz wrote: »

Well, we are approaching the end of August and after the recent recovery the portfolio is performing well - I would like to tke some profit in some of the names but this was an exercise in research and patience so we will stay long these names all year. Here is the latest report:



(Figures in Bold were the prices at the beginning of 2009)

1. Fresenius Medical Care (FME) - 32.90 - down 6.8% to 30.66

2. Fresenius SE (FRE) - 34.50 - up 2.8% to 35.48

3. Solera (SLH) - 21.49 - up 22.8% to 26.40

4. Harris and Harris (TINY) - 3.63 - up 75.5% to 6.37

5. Marriott 2013 Investment Grade Bonds (yielding 12%) - (Implied) up 8.0%

6. Owens Illinois (OI) - 25.38 - up 41.9% to 36.02

7. Liberty Global International (LBTYA) - 14.01 - up 61.7% to 22.65

8. Invitrogen (LIFE) - 21.00 - up 120.1% to 46.22

9. AMEX Oil ETF (USO) - 30.92 - up 25.5% to 38.80

10. The British Pound (GBP) - 1.0234 - up 12.2% to 1.1486


Total Portfolio increase from January 1st 2009 to August 25th 2009 is 30.6%

One loser out of ten - the Fresenius company.

In the same period, the Dow Jones I.A. is up 7.1% and the S&P 500 is up 12.1%.

Update ^^^^

pirelli

pocketdooz wrote: »

Update ^^^^

This week I was in Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Public, AMEX:SVA) I found it while researching healthcare. It was $4.80 when i found it. Now it's hitting $5.92 scratch that its now $6.06

I lost $900 dollars on one of my earlier chinese stocks.The chinese stock reported negative earnings but high growth versus a financial stock i had that reported record earnings with a P.E of 0.26 (ticker:AFN) but was low growth versus the chinese stock that reported very high growth and prosperous outlook but negative earnings due to a debt payment sending it P.E to 300.

This was not a good situation and both stock s were slow and i got into the chinese stock just a little too early before it's bottom. I had a choice to wait to recoup the $900 dollar loss as it was recovering but slowly or Sell. So i decided to sell and i bought SVA. This had got me an instant profit making up for some of the loss.


Another stock to watch is SPNG (sponge tech delivery) its trading at only .14 cents and was once a high risk stock. It had 2.75 billion shares Authorised and at one stage 1.25 billion out standing with a market cap of a less than a hundred million. Promises were made to reduce the A/s but then they increased it so people were skeptical .

However they have reduced it as of august 21st 2009 to 900 million authorized shares. They have reduced their O/S to 700 million shares. They are listed on the SHO ( naked short selling list ) which is also good because this prevents short selling of which they were a victim.


So all in all their revenue is set to increase well over 1000% and they cannot but make a profit higher than last years so people will be happy with a few cents per share. If you research this company you will be impressed with its highly visible brand imaging and huge marketing campaign and fast selling product. Its trading at .14 cents now. It will be releasing its 10k soon. It's expected to be a very good 10k, although the marketing campaign was expensive so not sure on net income but revenue will be enormous.

Certainly a stock to watch it is an OTC stock but company is planning on getting listed on NASDAQ.

amacca

pocketdooz wrote: »

Update ^^^^

30.6% gain, to me anyway that is incredible. I would love to have the experience/skill etc to put together a portfolio with those kind of gains.

Again if its not being too nosey and I know Ive asked a similar question before, where do you do your research/get your information/ do your read financial times look at Google finance, Bloomberg.com etc, Im very much a novice and a very cautious one at that but I find the sheer volume of information out there depressing to wade through....I just bought a copy of "Interpreting company reports and accounts" when you have chosen a couple of likely targets do you then drill down forensically into their books before deciding to invest or is it a broad strategy, low debt/good cashflow + earnings surprises + possible new business ventures for the company etc.

+ do you use an online broker like ameritrade or zecco to buy shares.

sorry for all questions feel free to ignore but just learning and would like to improve.

vinylbomb

It must be noted that this calendar year is an exceptional one for stocks, and will produce returns well above normal expectations. Due to nose dive in stock prices for at a minimum over the previous months, successful market timing would dictate how much profit was to be made. As the rally looks to have started in Mar or thereabouts this makes Jan/Feb almost the ideal time to invest.

My point is returns this calendar year will be exaggerated by market conditions, and are likely to be a one off.

amacca

vinylbomb wrote: »

My point is returns this calendar year will be exaggerated by market conditions, and are likely to be a one off.

Point taken!

If I could get fairly consistent returns of 7-10% net per annum though, Id be ecstatic as I suspect would most fund managers/investors/stock pickers.