help:Buying Shares in BOI or AIB

Fol20

Ok,its probably been done a million times already but im thinking of investing a few grand into bank shares.They are so low now that their bound to go up in good time after the recession.Id say it will be either BOI or AIB as they seem to be the 'strongest' of the banks and are least likely to go under etc.This would be my first investment in shares and im more than likely going to buy the shares through a bank and not a online websites as i wouldnt trust to put a sizable amount into an online trading website.

So thats my situation.

1.Can anyone outline the cost involved in buying shares directly off the bank instead of the internet.

2.Am i mad to enter or does it seem like an obvious and easy way to make money in a long term manner(10yrs)

rugbyman

I think you are not mad. I feel that both those those banks will be worth considerably more than the price today. So does virtually every poster on these threads.


regards, Rugbyman

drunkmonkey

Why bank shares, i'd leave that to circus performers used to catching falling knives..... with the current trouble in gaza I thought oil shares would be a safer bet, there gone very low and a good war would send them skyrocketing again....I think....

i'll buy some oil shares today if you can get someone to walk us through it...:)

vibe666

rugbyman wrote: »

I think you are not mad. I feel that both those those banks will be worth considerably more than the price today. So does virtually every poster on these threads.

regards, Rugbyman

no, you ARE mad and I've no idea why rugbyman thinks otherwise, he must be reading a different forum. all the advice I've seen here from the people who actually know what they're talking about (as opposed to the vast numbers of people who think they do) says steer well clear of any of the banks for now until we know what's going to happen to them.

there was plenty of people recommending buying when the shares were at 15, 10, 5 and even 1, but they'll all be crying into their cornflakes now. even the guys who bought at 0.90 and were popping the champagne when it hopped back up to 1.50 will be down in the dumps since it nosedived again.

the assertion that 'sure it's got to go back up eventually' is totally irrelevant if you look at all the other (much larger) banks that have gone titsup recently.

it is distinctly possible that BOI will recover and long term investors will do well out of it, but it's a long way from a safe bet and certainly not a sensible place to put your money.

take a good long hard look at your money and ask yourself if you can afford to lose it in the event that everything goes pear shaped for BOI (again). BUT, if you do decide to back this particular horse you might well end up well off from it, but no sensible investor would take that kind of risk.

if you do then it's not an investment it's a gamble. you just have to decide if you're willing to risk it.

pocketdooz

Fol20 wrote: »

Ok,its probably been done a million times already but im thinking of investing a few grand into bank shares.They are so low now that their bound to go up in good time after the recession.Id say it will be either BOI or AIB as they seem to be the 'strongest' of the banks and are least likely to go under etc.This would be my first investment in shares and im more than likely going to buy the shares through a bank and not a online websites as i wouldnt trust to put a sizable amount into an online trading website.

So thats my situation.

1.Can anyone outline the cost involved in buying shares directly off the bank instead of the internet.

2.Am i mad to enter or does it seem like an obvious and easy way to make money in a long term manner(10yrs)

1. Why don't you just ring the bank and ask them ?

2. Yes, you are totally mad to buy the equity of any Irish bank now. It is neither obvious nor an easy way to make money. Every week, the bank stocks hit new lows and monkeys come on this forum and spout rubbish about buying them cos they are now at their lowest ever. This logic is totally backward - you should be looking to buy stocks on the way up not as they are sinking like a stone.


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Hanley

When does the ban on shorting bank stocks end?? I think I saw it was 31/1/09?

That could be when the real fun and games begin...

Idu

Hanley wrote: »

When does the ban on shorting bank stocks end?? I think I saw it was 31/1/09?

That could be when the real fun and games begin...

Yeah because the ban has really stabalised financial share prices

Idu

To the OP:

The best advice I can give you is to ignore Rugbyman. The majority of people on here think BOI/AIB are dangerous investments teetering on gambling. Rugbyman has been calling the bottom of these stocks since June:

rugbyman wrote: »

I am buying BoI shares on monday morning. I am investing my childrens savings of 6,000. Was a bit put out that i did not buy at 5.30 this am ,when they were 5.48 later but i now note they are around 5.1 this evening.

there have been lots of interesting replies, esp the long one, but quite a bit of over the top anti stuff. i think the op may have a good enough idea, esp bearing in mind there will be dividends. At no stage did he say they might go to 16.

I could search back and find other similar posts. Now eventually he is going to call it right and be on calling us idiots for missing such an 'obvious' trade but as I've said countless times at this stage the strategy of "it must go up in 1/5/10 years" is ridiculous.

Also the fact that you know nothing about the market yet want to invest in two of the countries most volatile stocks in the last year is my own personal pet peeve. I find it amazing that people have the money to throw at something they dont fully understand. Some get lucky, most dont, but those in the know generally fare out better than amateurs. Same as in any walk of life

Best of luck with whatever you decide to do. I would recommend a high yielding savings account. Unless you can afford to lose the money in which case I would put it all on Denman in the Grand National at 16-1. Gamble Gamble

rugbyman

hello FoL 20,

you introduced the word mad on to this thread. Several posters have agreed that you are. I already said that I think not. Words like idiots ,donkeys,monkeys are not in my vocabulary, where polite advice or opinions are sought/given.

Hello Vibe666

What on earth is the connection between buyers at 5 and 10 euro crying in their cornflakes and this poster possibly buying B of I at 87 pence.

I have read posts re the difference between an investment and a gamble. but frankly I think its like medieval theologians discussing how many angels can sit on a pin. Buying stocks is a gamble.

regards,Rugbyman

I dont like the way this post of mine is going because I strive not to make any thing personal, but OP if you were to follow pocketdooz advice, you would be buying anglo irish because they are currently rising

"you should be looking to buy stocks on the way up not as they are sinking like a stone. "

pocketdooz

Yes . . . Anglo Irish shares are currently rising :rolleyes:





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Idu

rugbyman wrote: »

hello FoL 20,

you introduced the word mad on to this thread. Several posters have agreed that you are. I already said that I think not. Words like idiots ,donkeys,monkeys are not in my vocabulary, where polite advice or opinions are sought/given.

Hello Vibe666

What on earth is the connection between buyers at 5 and 10 euro crying in their cornflakes and this poster possibly buying B of I at 87 pence.

I have read posts re the difference between an investment and a gamble. but frankly I think its like medieval theologians discussing how many angels can sit on a pin. Buying stocks is a gamble.

regards,Rugbyman

I dont like the way this post of mine is going because I strive not to make any thing personal, but OP if you were to follow pocketdooz advice, you would be buying anglo irish because they are currently rising

"you should be looking to buy stocks on the way up not as they are sinking like a stone. "

one up day does not constitute a stock on the way up, you would need to see 5/6/7 days in a row with drastic changes in technical analysis and underlying financial news to consider Anglo to be on the way up

Rex Manning

Not too sure about irish bank share yet - probably a lot worse to come if the anglo chairman is anything to go by with his 87m in loans. British banks might a better bet (seeing that's what it is) as these banks have a functioning regulator and now that the government has invested in a few of them, rather than given them a loan, they' might be more accountable.

rugbyman

To Janets on Clubs

thank you for your info

While almost 20 % rise in one day and over25% in three might not meet the criteria for a rising stock, it suggests something.
12 million share bought on a quiet day , 1.5 % of the company

Since the last few months GUBU revelations about our banks have driven shares to almost zero, what surprises me most is that although hundreds of people must know of most of the bad stuff, very little has leaked out.

By the way I only pointed this out to the OP as some of the conflicting pieces of advice he was getting. neither he nor I had mentioned Anglo Irish.
Little did I dream at 10 am this morning that Anglo Irish would rise by so much today.

pocketdooz

Trading volume for Anglo today was 12 million out of 760 million shares in issue (1.58%)

Anglo shares hit fresh lows of 12 cents yesterday, down approx. 55% from a week ago (21 cents)









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daveirl

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daveirl

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Hanley

daveirl wrote: »

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Exactly. Considering how sh!t the bank shares are doing at the moment, and how rubbish they're likely to continue to do, it would seem logical to short them? More selling and less buying = lower price.... (obviously like Dave said, the potential upside's pretty non-existent for Anglo tho).

Keith186

I think it would be worth a small punt.

You could buy say €500 of each BOI & AIB just as a starter to the market, put the rest into savings account so it's safe and you only really have €1k at risk which won't be a big dent if it goes tits up.
It if does go tits up it will be a lesson learnt.

I think there's a way you can trade shares through internet banking on AIB and possibly BOI too although I don't have it myself so I don't know if it's any good.

Idu

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Why would they get worse. Short sellers are not the evil creatures they are painted as. If anything they provide balance to the market. Anglo's shares would still be at the same price if the ban had never been introduced

Time Magazine

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

Why would they get worse. Short sellers are not the evil creatures they are painted as.

Agreed, rationally. But the existence of the ban shows that a certain amount of irrationality/stupidity exists. RTÉ News reports that "the ban on short-selling expired today", who's to say Jimmy from the GAA isn't going to say "Jaysis! Better sell tomorrow"?

So it could potentially get worse, if the "news" impacts idiots who are still buying?

TheLoc

I wouldn't bother with banks. Or the Irish shares. The most valuable are the DJs. Sony Corp has risen by 8.4%. SkyWest Inc and Ebay are both on the way up. Ebay will be at the moment for the month of january because of people going mad and buying like nut cases as they all do during january after christmas. The big bucks/big risk is in the states so I wouldn't bother with Irish markets, Except maybe elan. Just always keep a close watch on them. they tend to fluctate fast although it hasn't in a while.

Sharehunter

Fol20 wrote: »

1.Can anyone outline the cost involved in buying shares directly off the bank instead of the internet.

2.Am i mad to enter or does it seem like an obvious and easy way to make money in a long term manner(10yrs)

1/ There is a 1% stamp duty charge on purchases plus the brokers fee. With Davy that would be 0.75% so €10,000 worht of shares would cost you €10,175.

2/ Long term I don't think you are mad while it's not a sure thing it is most likely but ultimately it is a gamble.

Try not to be greedy though. If you bought at 80c and you got a rise to €3 in two years wouldn't you be better off getting out with that profit instead of waiting for more. After all you will have made profit and a damn site more than it sitting in a bank.

I am only an amateur here and there are much louder voices than mine on this forum but it is your decision remember. If you can afford to lose what you put in and are willing to take the chance then go for it but you MUST be able to afford to lose it.

Sharehunter.
Remember ultimately it is a gamble.

vibe666

rugbyman wrote: »

What on earth is the connection between buyers at 5 and 10 euro crying in their cornflakes and this poster possibly buying B of I at 87 pence.

NO the question there is what is the difference between them and the answer is none.

loads of people were telling folks to buy a 5 and 10 euro because compared to the price a year ago it seemed on the face of it like a bargain.

if you buy 10k worth of stocks it doesn't matter a fig what their value is when you buy them if there's a strong likelihood that they are going to tank, whether you started out with 2000 shares or 50,000 shares, if they end up being worth a 5th of what you paid for them then that's going to be an equally bad loss.

ill informed buying like this is exactly how newbies can lose everything in their first hit and be finished before they've even started.

yes, people have made millions by taking exactly these sorts of risks, but the percentage of them that pay off compared to the percentage that end up with nothing is minuscule, much like the people who place crazy bets at stupidly long odds. it's just not the sensible way to do things and i think most people come here for sensible advice and that is what they should be given.

rugbyman

VIBE 666

Good Evening, a lot of what you have written is self evident and makes sense., but i fail to see any connection with the subject being discussed.


Buyer A ( you mentioned him) bought at 10 euro. now down 9.13 (if he sells at that price) .he requires the shares to rise say 14 fold from todays price to exit with profit.Little chance of that in the near future in my opinion.hence crying in cornflakes

Buyer B (you mentioned him) bought at 5 euro now down 4.13 etc etc

etc cornflakes.

Buyer C ( theOP) buys at 87, still at 87,(unlikely to tank in my opinion). If price reaches 174,(a reasonable prospect) buyer C can sell at 100% profit (less fees) and bank gains.

At this point Buyer B needs the share price to triple(having doubled) to get out. so crys in cornflakes

" " " " A " " " " " grow six fold (having doubled)

to get out.

If you see this as no difference, then we are on different wavelengths.


By the way to any un posting readers, I have every sympathy for those buyers,many of whom have worthless pensions as a result of reckless Bankers,.
" crying in their cornflakes " is not my expression

Regards,Rugbyman

rugbyman

Forgot to add.

wishing ALL on here a happy and prosperous New Year

Rugbyman

vibe666

rugbyman wrote: »

Buyer C ( theOP) buys at 87, still at 87,(unlikely to tank in my opinion). If price reaches 174,(a reasonable prospect) buyer C can sell at 100% profit (less fees) and bank gains.

there's the thing though, your opinion is based on a guess and a guess that's very likely based on exactly the same sort of logic that people who bought at 5 or 10 would have used when they bought.

there's nothing anywhere to say that the share price isn't going to drop another 80c in the next week and put the government in a position that they'll have to nationalise the bank which would leave buyer C just as much in the sh1t at buyers A & B.

NOBODY has any idea how low the share price might go, despite all the opinions and conjecture in the world it's still a HUGE gamble investing in a bank teetering on the edge.

mhaggag

I bought 3000 shares of BOI at some point in late 2008 / early 2009 for 17 cents/each, sold them gradually during 2009 for between 70 cents and 1.20 euros each. Made a nice profit obviously.
BOI recently issued a huge number of new shares (to raise 3.2 Billion in capital) and thus caused many share owners to see their investment diluted; so I bet they were not happy.
In the period 2006 - 2009, I guess a LOT of people also lost a LOT of money. BOI shares were trading at some point in time (in the boom years) for over 10 euros each. Will they ever come back to this? Who knows? Let's keep looking in the Crystal ball.

I am now back at same situation where I was in 2008. I have a few thousand euros to invest and would hope to get lucky again with BOI.
So, back to the very first post of this thread... is it a good move?

poodles

Seriously, have you been living in space the last year or so?

Keep away imho.

rugbyman

Mhaggag,

You have not had many replies to your question/proposal.

These threads over the last three years have had more opinions expressed than i have had hot dinners. Those who used use abusive terms have mellowed.
I value reading these threads , but without comments there is not much to read.

Re your topic, i am by no means an expert, but do read and occasionally invest/gamble.
like your self I bought and sold irish bank shares and made money in each case, except one.


I know little of whether charting is an exact science but there have been those on here who think it is pretty good.


Some weeks ago a poster called ROBMCHL said that the BoI share price was ranging between 60 cent and 88 cent. i have been watching this and twice since it has approached 60 on the downward slope and in each case rebounded, no later than today.

As sure as eggs is eggs if I join in it will change, i have been reading into spread betting to see if I could ride this wave have not come to any conclusions yet.

Regards Rugbyman

rugbyman

yep, eggs is eggs,

looks likethat get rich quick/investment plan of mine would not have worked,this week anyway

Regards, rugbyman

mhaggag

Oh yeah, I was locked in a high tower the last year or so, in a deep coma, waiting for the recession to end. A beautiful princess came, kissed me on the lips and I awoke.
BOI shares today are at 58 cents. Just a few months ago, it was at 3 euros each (before they issued that huge number of new shares). In about 2 weeks time, I'll be ready to buy 10000 (ten thousand) shares and either live to regret it or (as I predict), put them aside and forget about them for 2 -4 years and then hopefully sell them when the share price goes back up to 3 euros each or more.
Speaking of spread betting, I had an account opened with CMC Markets, went to their seminar, lost ALL of my initial investment of a whopping 300 (three hundred) euros.
Ironically, during that seminar, the presenter (a CMC Markets Sales Executive) was using his OWN trading account on the screen to show us how to use the trading software to place bets. His account was showing a LOSS of 700 euros in the last few weeks.
If you know anything about software, you will see (as I've come to realise) that the software you use to do the betting is RIGGED against you.
Spread "betting" is just that... gambling. Might as well bet on horses or football matches, at least there you know a bit what you're doing.
It is the same kind of software used by FOREX traders. There I also lost a few hundred euros. Although I have a colleague at work who claims to have made profit trading Forex and he says it took him almost a year of practice using a dummy account until he learned how to make profit.
There exist "automated" forex trading software that places orders for you automatically (thus making all the decisions for you and you don't have to learn anything); howerevr, my research shows it is not any better than using your own judgment and profits are not guaranteed.
So... for now... I stick to BOI shares, I'll buy my 10 thousand shares and then go back to sleep in the tower.

Raskolnikov

mhaggag wrote: »

So... for now... I stick to BOI shares, I'll buy my 10 thousand shares and then go back to sleep in the tower.

Good to see you've learned from your mistake and have went with a diversified portfolio of safe investments.

irishtrader

mhaggag (imho) i wouldnt invest in either of the irish banks there is too much uncertainty in irelands political will, and budget deficit! ( And it was the large budget deficit in the states that caused the great depresion in 1929 ) and the fact is the market's hate uncertainty!. also in my opinion AIB is hanging by a thread it is selling all its viable and fiscal productive assets when there gone what will be left for investors to invest in? check out the link http://www.businessandfinance.ie/cat_news_detail.jsp?
in my opinion AIB will be semi state owned at least . and just like Loyds there price wont move.
and take into account that the market veiws ireland as a big risk with the cost of bonds i would stay away from these until some good news appears then BoI might take an upward trend, at the moment the banks are moving on fundementals and there all bad.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-28/european-stock-index-futures-retreat-michelin-nokia-shares-may-be-active.html

pocketdooz

irishtrader wrote: »

mhaggag (imho) i wouldnt invest in either of the irish banks there is too much uncertainty in irelands political will, and budget deficit! ( And it was the large budget deficit in the states that caused the great depresion in 1929 ) and the fact is the market's hate uncertainty!. also in my opinion AIB is hanging by a thread it is selling all its viable and fiscal productive assets when there gone what will be left for investors to invest in? check out the link http://www.businessandfinance.ie/cat_news_detail.jsp?
in my opinion AIB will be semi state owned at least . and just like Loyds there price wont move.
and take into account that the market veiws ireland as a big risk with the cost of bonds i would stay away from these until some good news appears then BoI might take an upward trend, at the moment the banks are moving on fundementals and there all bad.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-28/european-stock-index-futures-retreat-michelin-nokia-shares-may-be-active.html

(i) Budget Deficits did not cause the Great Depression

(ii) AIB is already a semi-state institution

(iii) The banks are not moving on fundamentals.

.

mhaggag

Thanks for good advice!
Been watching BOI share, seems to be going down a cent a day!!

stepbar

Personally.... I'm waiting for facebook's IPO bank shares? If you're going to look at anything for god sake avoid AIB because if they don't end up nationalised I'll be shocked....

Smcgie

stepbar wrote: »

Personally.... I'm waiting for facebook's IPO ..

LOL, facebook ipo. You realize the city term for IPO "is probably overpriced" facebook is a media stock and could end up down the same route as its predecessor bebo.

As mad as bank share purchasing maybe sitting on cash for facebook IPO in 2012 is hilarious!

RoadKillTs

You realize the city term for IPO "is probably overpriced"

Wonder how much they will value it at? I see Betfair will be floating soon. Decent company but I'm sure it will start off been well over valued.

Smcgie

RoadKillTs wrote: »

Wonder how much they will value it at? I see Betfair will be floating soon. Decent company but I'm sure it will start off been well over valued.

I would be more inclined in watching a decent company like betfair rather thank lining the pockets of mark suckerberg or whatever his name is in an IPO were he sells stock at their peek value.

ranger4

SP finding some support at 0.53c range, Get Ready for Bounce.

AP_MAN

ranger4 wrote: »

SP finding some support at 0.53c range, Get Ready for Bounce.

3c up already

stepbar

Smcgie wrote: »

LOL, facebook ipo. You realize the city term for IPO "is probably overpriced" facebook is a media stock and could end up down the same route as its predecessor bebo.

As mad as bank share purchasing maybe sitting on cash for facebook IPO in 2012 is hilarious!

That's what they said about google...... To compare bebo to facebook is like comparing a fiesta to a Ferrari.... Facebook hasn't even hit second gear yet... As long as they keep innovating no one will touch facebook. And given time I can see facebook making serious inroads in terms of adverting revenue vs google. Microsoft aren't sitting on a minority share in facebook for the craic.

pocketdooz

ranger4 wrote: »

SP finding some support at 0.53c range, Get Ready for Bounce.

Sometimes I wonder if you are joking or serious.

.

ixus

pocketdooz wrote: »

Sometimes I wonder if you are joking or serious.

.

Bounce - Can I get a What What!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFO-JdGt5_U

RoadKillTs

Hi guys!

My Granny left me 10,000 euros in her will and I was thinking about investing it in AIB.

They are sooo cheap right now they surely can't go any lower.

dicknorris

RoadKillTs wrote: »

Hi guys!

My Granny left me 10,000 euros in her will and I was thinking about investing it in AIB.

They are sooo cheap right now they surely can't go any lower.

Buy buy buy !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! mine

rugbyman

ranger4 wrote: »

SP finding some support at 0.53c range, Get Ready for Bounce.

Hello All/Ranger

I would reckon ,though it could be easily verified, that Ranger 4, has correctly forecast at least five times that B o I shares would rise or would fall. This could have provided me with an oppourtunity to profit on each occasion.(eggs is eggs).
This is a refreshing change from the allbanks are s. ite brigade.

His/your forecasts on Aer lingus have been proven right , from memory, twice to rise and one to pull back. the current rise of 100 % would seem pretty damn good to me.

Regards Rugbyman

Comordha

There's rumours floating around Ulster Bank that AIB might be completely delisted, has anyone heard anything on this? I'd be happy if I was an AIB employee now as they are now public servants with state job and pension.

D-Generate

Comordha wrote: »

There's rumours floating around Ulster Bank that AIB might be completely delisted, has anyone heard anything on this? I'd be happy if I was an AIB employee now as they are now public servants with state job and pension.

Not necessarily, they are recapitalized, not nationalized. Although I think since they will now control of an 85% stake they might be required to make an offer on the remaining 15%

ranger4

pocketdooz wrote: »

Sometimes I wonder if you are joking or serious.

.

Deadly serious old boy.

ranger4

ixus wrote: »

Bounce - Can I get a What What!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFO-JdGt5_U

Hope you also injoying the ride.