New car sales 2009 - your predictions

E92

What are your predictions folks?

A lot of people are saying we'll still hit the 100,000 barrier, particularly industry bigwigs like Toyota Ireland's MD and Ford Ireland's MD - I'm more sceptical really.

New car sales went down 55.9% last month and we're on target for about 151,700 new car sales(that's assuming December goes very well relatively speaking - I'd say there will be no more than around 300 new registrations in December and that would be being optimistic really), as opposed to 186,540 last year.

However, if you look at the sales pattern from August to November(I have excluded July as the tax regime was always going to bring a spike in sales and therefore is not representative of the reality), you'll see that this year there were 10,947 new registrations compared to 20,065 registrations in the same period last year.

That's a drop of 45.44% there.

Based on this I would be reckoning on 2009 sales being down by around 45% on 2008 - that brings us to just 83,500 new car sales roughly(assuming we hit around 151,700 this year).

And all this time we must remember that there will be some very important new cars on the way.

Cars like the new Fiesta, Golf, Megane, Ka, Avensis, iQ, Urban Cruiser and Insignia, i20, Jazz, Superb and Accord will all be here at the start or else very early on in the year.

Revised versions of the Audi A3, Skoda Octavia and BMW 3 series to name a few will also be here for the start of the new year.

What makes in your opinion will have a (relatively) good 2009, and what makes won't?

I think Toyota could have a very good 2009 - but it depends on when they get their new cars in. I don't see much noise being made about the new Avensis for example.

If they got the new Avensis, Urban Cruiser and iQ in very early on in January, especially the Avensis and Urban Cruiser then we will see even more Toyotas around the place. And if they bring in that greener Auris 1.33 petrol as well as the Yaris they'll do better still, because the newer Toyotas are up there with the very best in their categories for low CO2 emissions, so they'll hopefully be cheaper and get more gadgets rather than the very spartan models Toyota Ireland like to bring in.

But if they don't then they'll lose even more market share, and Ford will gain more.

Ford have the new Fiesta, the Ka and there will be ample supply of the Mk3 Focus as opposed to it not coming until March as was the case last year so they'll have a good year. And they have the Kuga as well, though I don't know how well these type of cars will do now.

VW have the new Golf so that will do very well obviously, and maybe the Polo will get here sooner rather than later.

I still think Audi and BMW will do well - but it will be the smaller models that will sell - no more Q7s and X5s(though I wouldn't call this a bad thing). Lots of 3 series, 1 series, A3s and A4s, plus a good few A6s and 5 series seeing as both have band B versions of these cars.

Merc may not have a good year - the emissions thing has really clobbered them because Mercs are sh!t for CO2 but they have greener BlueEfficiency models(A, B and C-class) are finally going on sale in the UK very shortly - the question is how long will it be before MDL brings these newer models over here because MDL are usually as bad as Toyota Ireland are for bringing in new models.

Skoda and Opel should have a good 09 - the Insignia is a stunner and now finally with the backing of VW in Germany combined with the new Superb which I'm sure will appeal to those keen to get value out of every last cent will help them greatly. I really like Skodas anyway - VWs for less money but more reliability and spec - what more could you want?

Lexus, Jeep, Land Rover are fubared for 09.

Lexus because there are no CO2 improvements on the way, and even Merc is now catching up in this department.

Jeep and Land Rover because 4X4s have gone spectacularly out of fashion(I could never understand what made them fashionable in the first place), though Land Rover have a new Freelander TD4_e with auto start stop.

Anyone else got a crystal ball that they wish to share with us?

Biro

I reckon Subaru will sell more in 2009 than 2008 and 2007 combined!! Well, not quite, but I reckon their sales will be one of the few that either stay the same or increase, thanks to their new diesel.

sk8board

I see the Irish Times article had pieces with 6 MD's, Ford, Fiat, Toyota, Lexus, BMW/Mini, Citroen.
Some stuck to the rhetoric 100k answer, but 2 of them were predicting 80k, and 1 was at 85k.
I'd say the 80k is about right. As i mentioned in another thread I have a relation who is a sales director of a big-brand main-dealer, without a single booking for Jan 1st delivery as of a week ago.

PattheMetaller

The new golf should do well with the 2.0tdi 110bhp having €156 tax. The highline is €27200, which is well cheaper than the same car of the Mk5. Trade in quotes (or insults the case is) will have a bearing.

I read a review in UK press that the new Avensis isn;t great for ride comfort. Sore back syndrome even on motorways!!! They pegged it last in line of the recent family saloons

biggus

I think your figure of 83500 for 09 is very perceptive and could be spot on.
All the new cars will only help an otherwise disastirous year.
I think Kia will make strong inroads into Auris sales and the Soul could catch a few dropping down from Suv s
Kia are good on Co2 and the seven year warranty will catch some Toyota heads(now that there's no Corolla !)

Merc have a sub 150 g C180 on the way

P.S. I can't wait for the new PRIUS.

bazz26

As long as dealers cannot or will not take trade-ins against new or used stock then they could be in for a very hard year. This plus the biggest factor is that people cannot get approved for credit like they could up to recently.

PattheMetaller

Heard on the radio today that 20% of drivers indicated they were changing, with the figure 25% in the Greater Dublin area.

ninty9er

I'd go so low as 60k-65k.

Many people who have cleared car loans and would normally be changing are sinking the repayments equivalent into mortgage contingency funds.

1992 would have seen a similar type of economic climate money in pocket wise as I would expect in 2009.

2009 is going to be a bad year for the market in general, but I see Merc, BMW, Lexus and Audi retaining market share as their customers tend to be of the recession proof kind, maybe not Audi to such an extent though.

Changing, doesn't mean changing for new.

bazz26

PattheMetaller wrote: »

Heard on the radio today that 20% of drivers indicated they were changing, with the figure 25% in the Greater Dublin area.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of those figures into how many would be borrowing from a lending institution to change their car and how many have actually been approved for a loan. Some of those people may find it more difficult than they assume.

dennistuam

apart from lack of credit a big probelm for garages is imports from uk for example audi a4 2004 model can be bought and cleared for 6500 euro.
i reckon 80000 car sales could be more like it
for example a neighbour of mine won a vw jetta recently in credit union raffle as she had no need for it she is in her 80s,she asked the garage that supplied the car would they take it back and get the cash instead,
the garage owner said he had the yard full of them cannot give them away
so she tried the classifieds no joy, she went to a local car auction, first week bid 9000 euro did not take it the following week she went and sold it for 13500 euro exactly 11000 less than its original price
also the prime number plates has gone up to 1000 euro rip off ie 09 d 4

E92

biggus wrote: »

I think Kia will make strong inroads into Auris sales and the Soul could catch a few dropping down from Suv s
Kia are good on Co2 and the seven year warranty will catch some Toyota heads(now that there's no Corolla !)

There is a Corolla, it's just that it's only available as a saloon these days.

It sells extremely well, in 2007 they sold 7,000 of them, and that was with only 2 engines and 3 trim levels.

Imagine how well it would have sold if they put any effort into trying to sell it and offered more engines and higher spec levels!

The Auris is a poor seller - the Corolla outsells it by a margin of 1.75:1, which is unusual in this segment as most other cars are much more popular in hatchbacks rather than saloons. I think if they badged it as a Corolla they would have sold more of them(Toyota Austrailia still sells the Auris as a Corolla because of name recognition).

The Auris is a complete heap of crap, surprisingly quite a bit worse than the Corolla despite the 2 cars obviously being based on the same platform.

I think you're right about KIA though. They certainly are on a roll, and the Cee'd diesel is similarly priced to the Auris but has a much more powerful engine and the 7 year warranty. The Cee'd has been getting great reviews by all accounts.

I think KIA will attract some of Toyota's traditional customer base with this kind of after sales.

I think Skoda could make some inroads on Toyota's base as well with the new Superb and I've heard it from some that Skoda locally are looking to tempt ex Camry drivers into it.

Skodas are no nonsense reliable cars - the same as Toyotas - the difference is the cars themselves are much better than the offerings that Toyota have.

What Toyota has that I don't think any other mass market or even many premium brands have is superior customer service.

Toyota dealers are very reasonable on prices for servicing and they know how to look after their customers. They have good warranties. For people who only want a car to move them from A to B that won't cost the earth and never go wrong then Toyota delivers in spades.

If KIA or Skoda or other brands are ever going to win Toyota customers over then they need to learn a thing from Toyota about customer service.

To be honest if brands like Volvo and Merc were even half as good as Toyota for aftersales that would be an improvement of epic proportions.

Sqaull20

Biro wrote: »

I reckon Subaru will sell more in 2009 than 2008 and 2007 combined!! Well, not quite, but I reckon their sales will be one of the few that either stay the same or increase, thanks to their new diesel.

Pity they wont be fitting the Impreza with them.50 mpg, 150 PS would have been cool.

Overature

im going to test drive a 09 mirk, beamer and jag. oh yeah

E92

Sqaull20 wrote: »

Pity they wont be fitting the Impreza with them.

Oh yes they will be;)!

You just have to be a bit more patient but it is on the way.

I read the interviews in the Irish Times - it's what spurred me on to create this thread and I think all 6 are being a bit optimistic about their brands to put it mildly but then again they are supposed to be.

mone

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sqaull20
Pity they wont be fitting the Impreza with them.

Oh yes they will be!

You just have to be a bit more patient but it is on the way.

It will be in the Impreza alright from early next year - last I heard though was there was no guarantee it was coming to Ireland - all depends on how well they can price it.

Darragh29

If sterling ends up on parity with the Euro and it's heading this way, this could change the figures completely.

Drummerboy08

It is coming in the Impreza in the next 6 months - they had to roll out the Diesel Outback and forrester first.

Zube

E92 wrote: »

Cars like the new Fiesta, Golf, Megane, Ka, Avensis, iQ, Urban Cruiser and Insignia, i20, Jazz, Superb and Accord will all be here at the start or else very early on in the year.

Revised versions of the Audi A3, Skoda Octavia and BMW 3 series to name a few will also be here for the start of the new year.

Nothing there to tempt anyone - more of the same, or in some cases, even duller than before.

maidhc

Zube wrote: »

Nothing there to tempt anyone - more of the same, or in some cases, even duller than before.

umm... that list is probably 50% of new cars sold in Ireland.

Zube

maidhc wrote: »

umm... that list is probably 50% of new cars sold in Ireland.

If that list is 50% of the cars sold, I think it's going to be 50% of a very small number: why upgrade your Mk V 5 golf when the brand new model looks exactly the same? The new Megane is duller than the old one.

There's nothing "must-have" in that list, so the only reason to change will be the "I always change at 2 years/3 years" brigade, and it's very easy for them to put it off for a year or two, until the economy picks up.

maidhc

Zube wrote: »

If that list is 50% of the cars sold, I think it's going to be 50% of a very small number: why upgrade your Mk V 5 golf when the brand new model looks exactly the same? The new Megane is duller than the old one.

There's nothing "must-have" in that list, so the only reason to change will be the "I always change at 2 years/3 years" brigade, and it's very easy for them to put it off for a year or two, until the economy picks up.

If people have money/credit they will buy a car if they don't, they won't. There is no such thing as a "must have" new car, my 35year old Capri does exactly the same thing as an 09 BMW M5, albeit not as well.

In normal circumstances a new model of a car will prompt people to change. Why I don't know, but it does.

Zube

maidhc wrote: »

In normal circumstances a new model of a car will prompt people to change.

Maybe, but these are not normal circumstances, unless you've been asleep since 1930.

maidhc

Zube wrote: »

Maybe, but these are not normal circumstances, unless you've been asleep since 1930.

Yeah, and I don't think people will buy many cars, but it isn't because the cars on offer are somehow boring and not worth buying. Since 1930 99% of cars sold have been boring and not worth paying over lots of hard earned cash for, but that never stopped anyone.

E92

People still bought cars the last time we had a recession(the 80s) - some people will have plenty of money and have jobs for life so why shouldn't they spend it as they so choose?

Some people who didn't like being ripped off during the boom years will now start to spend because there is better value to be had and these kind of people will spend now that things have taken a downturn.

Táck

mazda and mitsubishi are the only two brands that are up this year on last year...

crosstownk

I'd say the car market will land somewhere between 80k and 90k.

There are a LOT of dealers out there who had upwards of 100 confirmed orders this time last year, that now have less than 10. This is partly because they can't trade due to second hand stock levels and partly because customers are unhappy with the cost to change/value of current car. Difficulty in customers obtaining finance is compounding the problem.

One thing is for sure - January 2009 will not see a mad rush on registrations as in previous years. Whether or not thing rally in February or March will depend on the economic outlook at that time. But if there is no rally in registration by the end of March then the ship will have sailed for '09 and the consequences for the motor industry will be severe.

Highsider

Would be very surprised if they break the 80k mark. 65-70k would be top end IMO. Don't think people realise just how bad this economic downturn is.

ninty9er

I'd say it's safe to say that ROS Vehicle Registration won't be crashing due to pressure this January:D:D

There's always a silver lining.:P

crosstownk

Táck wrote: »

mazda +5.8% and mitsubishi +3.0% are the only two brands that are up this year on last year...

You forgot Citroën +12.8% and Jaguar +18.2%.

Figures relate to the passenger vehicle market to end Nov 2008.

furtzy

I know of one large multi brand dealership that have 8 confirmed orders down from 50 last year....they're fubared

245

What about people who bought on finance and have a large balloon payment looming? Don't they have to either hand back the car, refinance the balloon or trade in against a new car? It stands to reason that a reasonable amount of people must be coming to the end of a three year or four year finance deal that needs one of the above actions.

unkel

245 wrote: »

What about people who bought on finance and have a large balloon payment looming? Don't they have to either hand back the car, refinance the balloon or trade in against a new car? It stands to reason that a reasonable amount of people must be coming to the end of a three year or four year finance deal that needs one of the above actions.

And perhaps they can't get the finance for an upgrade this time around - nightmare scenario. They still have to refinance the balloon, the 3 year old car is gone but they'll still have to pay for it for another 3 years and maybe they can only fork out the cash for an old banger :eek:

galwaytt

Considering M-B don't even have a Galway dealership, it's safe to say their year is fubar'd before it even starts...........

tell you what though, with the right deal (0%), and a scrappage scheme, I'd toss my 02 Mazda 2.0d to the scrapper for a new small car......I'm just waiting for someone to come up with it.

RedorDead

E92 wrote: »

Oh yes they will be;)!

You just have to be a bit more patient but it is on the way.

I read the interviews in the Irish Times - it's what spurred me on to create this thread and I think all 6 are being a bit optimistic about their brands to put it mildly but then again they are supposed to be.

Probably the funniest was Lexus and their 1000 units prediction. No real diesel presence and over priced not as efficient as they'd like you to believe hybrids. They have the IS200D well priced and specced but customers looking for cars in this segment will still go towards 3 series and A4 in their droves. 600 will be good going for them.

Henry Ford III

I predict a complete meltdown in new car sales. 2/3-3/4 off peak levels.

Táck

unkel wrote: »

And perhaps they can't get the finance for an upgrade this time around - nightmare scenario. They still have to refinance the balloon, the 3 year old car is gone but they'll still have to pay for it for another 3 years and maybe they can only fork out the cash for an old banger :eek:

if they took a balloon out, they better hope their credit union manager likes them.

whatever about getting finance on cars now, you can not get balloons anymore.

R.O.R

RedorDead wrote: »

Probably the funniest was Lexus and their 1000 units prediction. No real diesel presence and over priced not as efficient as they'd like you to believe hybrids. They have the IS200D well priced and specced but customers looking for cars in this segment will still go towards 3 series and A4 in their droves. 600 will be good going for them.

Lexus are panicking like crazy at the moment and loading discounts on to most of their current range. The only car which has sold in any sort of volume is the IS220d. As a large proportion of sales in this class are as company cars, and the IS220d is in VRT band D it will mean an extra 5% BIK for a majority of drivers compared to the offerings from Audi and BMW.

From all the cars I currently have on order (not too far down on this time last year) over 20% are A4's - I'm sure that will please some people one here , but I only have 1 3-Series and that's a 318i.

With the competative prices and reasonable spec levels, I can see it being a fairly good year for Audi. I'd say BMW sales will pick up but not to last years levels. Opel will definately shift a good number of Insignia's (a few on order already) as any drivers who have been in to have a look have been very interested. Currently there is stock coming for January, but if a car has to be ordered then it's looking like April - this has cost them a couple of Elite orders already.

I'd say we'll still deliver more Passat's than anything else though. As soon as the new 2.0Tdi 110 becomes available they'll be flying out like they do every year :rolleyes:

rebel.ranter

crosstownk wrote: »

This is partly because they can't trade due to second hand stock levels and partly because customers are unhappy with the cost to change/value of current car.

I think this will be a significant factor in determining new car sales. People cannot stomach excess depreciation.

HashSlinging

I'd say the sales will be down big time in '09, unless the scrapheap scheme comes back they'll be lucky to hit 65k in total sales. Think a 20% drop is wayyy optimistic, given the prices in the UK.

bazzachazza

I'm sure they will be well down.

I would guess below the 100,000 mark.

Having said that I know of more people who are getting 2009 new cars than in any other recent year.

Even one of my work friends is getting a new car his first in 10 years.

If you can keep your job and have the money then next year might be a good year to buy.

Also oil prices hit $32 a barrel today so it should be cheap to run them as well.

ninty9er

rebel.ranter wrote: »

I think this will be a significant factor in determining new car sales. People cannot stomach excess depreciation.

That's not a real issue, they were well able to gollup down practically no depreciation for the last 8 years. Go back any further and you'll see depreciation then is similar to the prices being offered for trade ins now.

They may not like it, but it is not excess.

trellheim

what happens to the used market in 2-3 years when all the UK cars start being resold ?

sk8board

trellheim wrote: »

what happens to the used market in 2-3 years when all the UK cars start being resold ?

its not necessarily as big a problem as you'd expect.

People buying in the UK still have to sell their existing car, or perhaps they imported versus buying a new car here.

therefore, when they go to sell their car in 3 years time, they'll take 50% depreciation off the price they imported it for, and it'll still be a cheap car for the next guy who buys it from them.
People aren't stacking up cars in the back of hte garage just so that they can import one

200motels

I think new car sales will be down a lot in 2009 because a lot of people can't get credit, and those who have the cash will go to UK to get one even with the illegal VRT when they bring it in it's still be cheaper.

ianobrien

I was talking to a mate last night who works in a large dealership in Cork, and the subject of new car orders came up.

Last year (ie Dec 07), the dealership had 200 orders for new cars for delivery in Jan 08. This year (ie Dec 08), they have orders for 9 new cars for delivery in Jan 09.

That's a 95.5% drop in new car orders

crosstownk

ianobrien wrote: »

Last year (ie Dec 07), the dealership had 200 orders for new cars for delivery in Jan 08. This year (ie Dec 08), they have orders for 9 new cars for delivery in Jan 09.

That's a 95.5% drop in new car orders

This is typical of practically every dealership in the country at the moment. So the January registration figures will make interesting (and depressing) reading........ I reckon that this thread will have quite a few more additions by the end of March.

ninty9er

Could we be missing the "every year changers" who bought in July and will now wait 'til Jan 2010 to buy??

It is plausible, although if they were that adamant they may have just changes after 6 months.

245

ninty9er wrote: »

That's not a real issue, they were well able to gollup down practically no depreciation for the last 8 years. Go back any further and you'll see depreciation then is similar to the prices being offered for trade ins now.

They may not like it, but it is not excess.

I can't agree with you - I've been buying new cars for more than 8 years (a lot more) and I never saw these levels of depreciation. I know for a fact that levels of depreciation in the mid/late '80s were far less than they are now.

maidhc

ninty9er wrote: »

That's not a real issue, they were well able to gollup down practically no depreciation for the last 8 years. Go back any further and you'll see depreciation then is similar to the prices being offered for trade ins now.

They may not like it, but it is not excess.

My grandfather used to religiously trade in his Audi every year since the mid 80's (he had Asconas and Reckords before that, he used to change every 3 or so years then)

The lowest depreciation was in the mid 90's. Then it cost him £4000 to go from a 1995 Audi A4 TDI to a 1997 one. By 2006 he couldn't even stomach buying a new A4, and went for a Passat, he still has the passat, the longest he ever has had a car, and will for another few years by the looks of things.

I should also add, that a huge number of people put "excess" cash into shares. That cash is now gone, or at least worth less.

GUEVARA50

Where are the SIMI figures for new car sales December 2008, usually they are in for the first Tuesday of the following Month?

Anyone know??

Daithi McGee

GUEVARA50 wrote: »

Where are the SIMI figures for new car sales December 2008, usually they are in for the first Tuesday of the following Month?

Anyone know??

The figures come out after the first 10 Days. Some figures will be released on Monday/Tuesday. Then 10 days after that and then the end of the month.

[EDIT Sorry I just noticed you mentioned December. They are already released]

See 2008 Download...

http://www.simi.ie/showcontent.asp?SubsectionID=10