Snow/Freezing Weather across Ireland (Friday 28th November onwards)

ninebeanrows

Well it's beginning the look like this could be a major cold spell for Ireland with great potential for snow almost anywhere.

Friday will see things kick off with bitter slack northerly airflow over the country with low temperatures of just 3-6c, showery activity will kick off in the North and along the east coast through the day. Snow showers should start falling in the east towards dusk and a sharp Frost overnight.

Saturday looks like being bitter with accumulated snow possible in the east 2-5c countrywide in a slack airstream. Freezing overnight with a severe frost with temperatures dipping to -4c.

Them Sunday & Monday look very interesting with potential for widespread heavy snow at times as trough features move south. Nighttime temperatures always extremely low (down to -6c) and daytime temps falling progressively away as the cold spell continues.

Looking good folks.

Here is a chart example of the synoptic for Saturday Midday

Ireland is covered in an unstable NNE flow as cold air floods across Ireland due to a low
centered over Biscay. (Notably England does not receive as much cold air and Ireland should be positioned better overall in this cold spell than its Neighbor, however Scotland as ever is the best positioned country)



Time for a Cold Spell thread

Supercell

Good stuff WC, it ain't an official cold spell until the first "WC warns of Armageddon" post

Just kidding, really useful info and definitely deserves highlighting to all readers. I'm getting pretty excited here have to say.

ninebeanrows

Cheers Supercell

I'm getting pretty excited here have to say.

And you should be! These latest upgrade dare i say have perhaps worsened your chances! The last few days probably would have given you a dumping up there but shleety rain by the coast but now everything is looking cold enough but the precipitation might be the issue.

Your very well positioned anyway, that's for sure.

Nice to see the 12z GFS going our way again, we could get something nice over here perhaps a decent fall of snow for once if were lucky:D

Sierra Oscar

So, Weathercheck - how excited are you about this? Is this the most promising event you have come across in recent years? Are you confident?:D

Should I be expecting snow in North Tipp?;)

LEIN

Great news!

Haven't had a decent cold spell in a long time.

Pity i have to work this weekend.

kerry1960

WOW incredible if this comes off

and im on hols for next 4 days

bring it on .

ninebeanrows

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

So, Weathercheck - how excited are you about this? Is this the most promising event you have come across in recent years? Are you confident?:D

Should I be expecting snow in North Tipp?;)

I'm quietly confident. I would say it has the potential to be the best spell in the last few years, doesn't look like anything of spectacular proportions at the moment though, no raging Easterly from Siberia! North Tipp is probably most at risk on Sunday/ Monday but boy it'll be cold and raw Friday night and Saturday there.

forkassed

Me likes

:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote: »

These latest upgrade dare i say have perhaps worsened your chances! The last few days probably would have given you a dumping up there but shleety rain by the coast but now everything is looking cold enough but the precipitation might be the issue.

Yep, i reckon you might be right, but I'll take the cooler temps first and hope for the precip second..nothing worse than being about 50 metres below the local snow line which happened here a few times last winter.

danni2

Well it all lookes good for cold now, 1 thing im worried about is will there be any precipitation for my area, am I too far inland??

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

I'm quietly confident. I would say it has the potential to be the best spell in the last few years, doesn't look like anything of spectacular proportions at the moment though, no raging Easterly from Siberia! North Tipp is probably most at risk on Sunday/ Monday but boy it'll be cold and raw Friday night and Saturday there.

To be honest Matty,I think it's marginal.I think you know it's marginal-mainly because of the time of year.
It's got a reasonable chance.I would not bet on sticking snow on the coast.I wouldn't be surprised if it was sleety rain on the coast.
Precip well inland has a higher chance of being snow.The usual suspects and more.

But this is all a shot in the dark.
It depends a lot on the coldness of the surface feed.
For instance if Newcastle or manchester is +2 or +3c at the height of this,you can be guaranteed Dublin will be on the wrong side of 4c.
That has as high a probability of being the case as anything.

CianRyan

What do you reckon the chances are for Tallaght to get some snow?
Just at the foot of the Dublin mountains, sitting at about 200m i think, could be wrong though.

It would be nice to have a bit of snow, and not have to hike an hour to get to it. :rolleyes:

+
If it goes to -6, it could be the first time in a few years that the lakes around me will freeze, not thick enough to skate on, but it still looks cool. :pac:

Good chance there Cian.

We won't know untill saturday to be honest,thats how much is up in the air about that.

But just to give you an example,I've seen it be sleety rain in Donnybrook and snowing in Dundrum under the same showers/system.

And you are much higher than there,all Dundrum has is a bit more proximity to the higher ground but it's not really high and its a bit further inland

CianRyan

RESULT!
Now to cross my fingers. (:
haha

Supercell

CianRyan wrote: »

What do you reckon the chances are for Tallaght to get some snow?
Just at the foot of the Dublin mountains, sitting at about 200m i think, could be wrong though.

It would be nice to have a bit of snow, and not have to hike an hour to get to it. :rolleyes:

+
If it goes to -6, it could be the first time in a few years that the lakes around me will freeze, not thick enough to skate on, but it still looks cool. :pac:

Didnt realise parts of Tallaght rose that high. Tallaght is a great spot for thunderstorms in the summer, 200 metres would be excellent for snow in winter too. Sounds like my kind of place!! Rarely get any thunder here.
Any chance you could install Google Earth and find yer gaff and tell us what height it says you are at?
Once installed just hover the hand pointer thingy over yer gaff and look at the height it shows on the bottom.
My gaff is at 206 metres for example :-

Theres high ground to the west of Tallaght supercell that wouldnt surprise me at being at that height.
A GPS handheld would tell you fairly accurately.

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

Theres high ground to the west of Tallaght supercell that wouldnt surprise me at being at that height.
A GPS handheld would tell you fairly accurately.

Yep, I got NASA data maps installed on my Garmin Venture Cx which shows contour maps every ten metres. Have noticed quite large disparities with the GPS calculated values (often up to 40 metres out in elevation), and the NASA locational ones but they have value for sure.
I have been known to drive around the neighbourhood here with one hand on the wheel and the other on the Garmin noting elevation changes

camel toe

how is this good? i like the way irish winter normally is, well at least east coast south dublin

CianRyan

Supercell wrote: »

Didnt realise parts of Tallaght rose that high. Tallaght is a great spot for thunderstorms in the summer, 200 metres would be excellent for snow in winter too. Sounds like my kind of place!! Rarely get any thunder here.
Any chance you could install Google Earth and find yer gaff and tell us what height it says you are at?
Once installed just hover the hand pointer thingy over yer gaff and look at the height it shows on the bottom.
My gaff is at 206 metres for example :-

Yeah sure, i'll do that for you later, i'll have to go in my other computer to install it cause i dont have admin rights on my mams laptop(which i am currently on).

*considers staying in my sisters house, which is higher up*:rolleyes:

Tabnabs

Tallaght is around the 100m mark elev, but then so is Ballinteer and we had great snow there in times gone by.

CianRyan

Really?
I thought it was higher.

There are some spots to the west and south that rise up into the hills.

Supercell

Dyflin wrote: »

Tallaght is around the 100m mark elev, but then so is Ballinteer and we had great snow there in times gone by.

I had thought around Brittas or Manor Kilbride was needed for decent elevation in that direction.
Proximity to the mountains often means it will snow when other locations at the same or higher elevations don't (Laragh for example is only around 150 metres high but gets at least as much snow as here because it's right on the mountain slopes whilst I'm a little back).
Tallaght often gets lots of thunder too, if there was gaffs i could afford in the higher parts of Manor Kilbride or Bohernabreena I'd be there in a second.

Sorry, i'm dragging this topic waaay of centre.
Bring on the sneachta!!

The Sparrow

Snow would be awesome this weekend... here's hoping!

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote: »

precipitation might be the issue.

Correct. Other than hit and miss showers, the wee hours Monday morning looks like heavier precip approaching the east coast but arctic air still remains off to the west and then moving in over the west through the weekend. This is what i be looking at and how far east it get as there is no direct arctic blast countrywide atm, but high ground in the east with low ground in the midlands looks promising for snow. Model runs look much better today with some more twists to come for sure.

I agree with snowbie there.
It could all change for the better but it needs to be exactly right at this time of the year.
As I said elsewhere,those charts scream "if only it were january" to me.

The chart snowbie posted would be a cert for snow everywhereif the surface air was cold enough.
It's likely not to be so I'm sticking with marginal for now.
If you have anything above 2c in a map like that at this time of the year on the coast expect rainy sleet.

Perfect for inland areas though especially high ground.
No doubt in my mind that artictree and supercell will be wowing us with the photo's again by Monday!

Weather BOFH

Sorry to go off topic again but on the subject of altitude, Google Earth gives my location at ~120m and it actually rises going down hill from here (you can even see the slope on the sat pic) so I'm not sure how accurate it is! My own GPS and others I've seen have been around 160m or so, Saggart Village is at 155m. Tallaght Village is pretty much bang on 100m with the hills south and west rising to 350m or so.

Tallaght often gets lots of thunder too, if there was gaffs i could afford in the higher parts of Manor Kilbride or Bohernabreena I'd be there in a second.

I don't know how many times over the last few years I've gazed longenly a mile or so up the road to the snow covered fields up there

rc28

Meteireann tv forecast just said wintry precip at lower levels only at night if at all.

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

Perfect for inland areas though especially high ground.
No doubt in my mind that artictree and supercell will be wowing us with the photo's again by Monday!

That chart has a total snowfest for here I agree.
Its too localised though, if it turns out like that then fantastic however I am hoping that little green area expands closer to the time though as the margin for error is just far to big right now.

Ah you'll be grand up there.
I'd expect the snowline to come down as far as rathdrum south of you to be honest.

CianRyan

Hills to the south of Tallaght rise to at least 400m, i was looking a it the other day.
Not sure if thats the highest peak either.
But anyway, back on topic.

That green area is showing the precip and not the temp right?

Supercell

nemonoid wrote: »

My own GPS and others I've seen have been around 160m or so, Saggart Village is at 155m. Tallaght Village is pretty much bang on 100m with the hills south and west rising to 350m or so.

Nemonoid, if you have a Garmin I'd recommend installing the maps from Emeraldisland on it, the site is ran by a crazy frenchman but his data is the best there is for Ireland by a long long way.
If you dont have the software needed to install it let me know and i'd be happy to help out.
GPS only elevation data is not that accurate here imho..however this map data with location is as accurate as it gets.

repr

Be a shock to the system when this cold arrives.
I expect the north will start seeing sleet tomorrow night as the cold air starts to dig in.

Deep Easterly

Don't think I am going to be snowed out of it here, but I is sure looking forward to some nice frosty cool weather. If the west stays clear we could well see the lowest temperatures away from any snow fields in the east. I am more than happy with the runs lately. Not an ideal easterly by any stretch of the imagination, but it'll do.

Snowbie

CianRyan wrote:

That green area is showing the precip and not the temp right?

The green area is the intensity of the rain using the key at the bottom.

That chart is showing surface SLP, DP and precip (surface low pressure, dewpoint and precip).

SpitfireIV

A decent cold spell coming our way eh? Suddenly I'm interested in the weather again . Just got a stove installed into the shed in time it seems :cool:

CianRyan

Nice one, Snowbie.

I'm starting to get to grips with these charts now.:)

Gonzo

cold spell looks set to last from Friday till Thursday of next week.

im not confident of 6 inchs of snow on the ground but I think we will see some sleet/snow shower activity in most areas, some areas will be luckier than others. I would love a rerun of that wonderfull short lived snow we had last winter January 4th I think it was. There will be certainly plenty of severe night time frosts over the coming week and dangerous road conditions most mornings.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Don't think I am going to be snowed out of it here, but I is sure looking forward to some nice frosty cool weather. If the west stays clear we could well see the lowest temperatures away from any snow fields in the east. I am more than happy with the runs lately. Not an ideal easterly by any stretch of the imagination, but it'll do.

from met.ie:
"While the weather will often be dry, showers could occur anywhere or anytime from Friday right through the weekend; with the temperatures so low falls of sleet and snow could well occur. There is a threat of more severe wintry weather later on Sunday or during Monday."

The BBC weather charts seem to be progging the really snowy stuff moving in from the north west on Sunday night. .:cool:

you could be in business yet paddy1:)

CianRyan

I know its still early, but everything seems to be moving in the right direction, or at least looking that way.

Trogdor

I don't see myself having any lying snow from this here at the mo, but it'll be nice and chilly and wouldn't be suprised to see a few flakes falling anyway

Snowbie

Just waiting for the 18Z to rollout. Found this thread that Danno started about the last snow event for November. 25th Nov 2005 This was before my time here on boards but remember this cold snap well as i recorded my lowest temp for Nov in that snap but only a slight dusting.

Just something to read while we anticipate upgrades a plenty from the *ahem*18z

Snowbie

There is the change on IR sat in the form of the cold front about 200miles NW of Ireland.

Here

Notice the showers following quickly on behind in the colder airmass.

rc28

So far, 18z showing snow in NW on Friday evening and rain/sleet in the far southeast (turning to snow for a while between midnight and 6am).
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Also, for saturday itself, the second half of the day brings a good risk of wintry precip for NW/w and for parts of far south/se too but on higher ground it seems

I should add NetWeather puts the % chance of these happening at only ~ 50-60% at best compared to 80-90% for regions in Scotland

Little or no precip for the east coast this weekend so is it a downgrade?

force eleven

rc28 wrote: »

So far, 18z showing snow in NW on Friday evening and rain/sleet in the far southeast (turning to snow for a while between midnight and 6am).
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Also, for saturday itself, the second half of the day brings a good risk of wintry precip for NW/w and for parts of far south/se too but on higher ground it seems

I should add NetWeather puts the % chance of these happening at only ~ 50-60% at best compared to 80-90% for regions in Scotland

Little or no precip for the east coast this weekend so is it a downgrade?

GFS 18Z is a definite downgrade I'm afraid,especially for next week. However,it is only one model, the others are persisting with cold through next week. When I see snow falling from the sky,I'll call it, but not before...:rolleyes:

Snowbie

So far i wouldn say downgrade but slightly up. There is more cold air on this than previous runs tbh and more sub -5C air over the east for a change. The fax charts are very interesting for Friday evening into Saturday morning (still rolling out too) This could be a good snow event on mtns although the precip aint too good in the front.

Snowbie

Monday is still going with cold air now more sourced from the north and with a series of troughs pushing down from the north. North and west most at risk of wintry precip.



Looks like an interesting feature pushing down from the NW on Tuesday. Look at dewpoints forecasted as been 0C widely.



18Z is very good for cold, where precip will fall is still uncertain and how heavy. Showers more likely for windward coasts but how far west will the fronts over UK reach. Temps will be low and progressively colder.

ninebeanrows

Sweet looking 18z to arrive home too. Loving it.

The cold spell extents out to 180hrs.

First chance of snow arrives late Friday as heavy precip moves up the east coast and it's cold too.

This would provide snow away from the southeast coast IMO during Saturday morning.






:D

nacho libre

Snowbie wrote: »

Monday is still going with cold air now more sourced from the north and with a series of troughs pushing down from the north. North and west most at risk of wintry precip.



Looks like an interesting feature pushing down from the NW on Tuesday. Look at dewpoints forecasted as been 0C widely.



18Z is very good for cold, where precip will fall is still uncertain and how heavy. Showers more likely for windward coasts but how far west will the fronts over UK reach. Temps will be low and progressively colder.

when you say an interesting feature, are you talking about a possible polar low on Tuesday:)

danni2

Is there any chance of that precip move inland during late friday/early saturday or is it only going to effect the east coast. I really want snow!!

shamwari

What sort of weather are we realistically looking at around Dublin? Anyone care to proffer an opinion ?

Snowbie

@nacho, no not a PL but the warm sector around the core slips over Kerry with everywhere north of that still in the cold air. Before that yourself and DE look good for showers pushing down over your areas.

NB: Cold air being marginal on Tuesday for low lying area's and coastal of west but progged this far out could all change in the meantime.