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December 2008 Forecast and Analysis
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25-11-2008 4:55pm#1Here we go folks, the last chance to overhaul Nacho and steal the yearly title from his grasp!!
Will the cooler trend of recent months continue, will there be sneachta on Christmas day?..these are important questions that need answers!
With the season that's in it there's a couple of Christmas specials..double points this month for any question exactly right.
1. What will be mean temperature in December?
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Clones on Christmas Day?
5. Which station will have the highest rainfall total for the month?
6. Will there be measurable snow at Dublin airport (1mm of snowfall must be recorded as falling between 00:00 and 23:59 local time on Dec 25th 2008.) on Christmas day (more here) ?
Happy Christmas to all and try not to drink too much
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Last month of using the 10 main stations for nationwide stats also. From January onwards, either Dublin Airport or Casement will be dropped due to their close proximity to each other while Johnstown Castle and Galway will be included as the SE is not represented well in the OIM. Thinking of bringing Omagh and Belfast in as well, but we'll see how that goes.
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We measure snow in cm. Paddy Power i'm happy to go with but i'm sure 1cm of snow is usually declared for official white Christmas. Snow grains can be 1mm diameter (ok still snow) and also hail so a slight shower of these can leave a dusting of which can melt in minutes. Will this a white Christmas?
I'm going with Paddy Powers declaration to be unbiased. I'm guessing it probably is 1mm of precip which is about 1CM of snow which they are going to use, If they payout then I'll accept whatever their decision is*
*Myself and Arcticree will probably be buried under 1 Metre of snow anyhow so ye Dubs can have the 1mm or cm..tis much of a muchness
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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1. What will be mean temperature in December? ... 4.8 C
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? ... 12.2 C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? ... -10.8 C
4. What will be the highest temperature recorded at Clones on Christmas Day? ... 3.1 C
5. Which station will have the highest rainfall total for the month? ... wish I had a clue ... or Cork
6. Will there be measurable snow at Dublin airport (1mm of snowfall must be recorded as falling between 00:00 and 23:59 local time on Dec 25th 2008.) on Christmas day (more here) ? ... YES !!! (3 cms)
Watch for a major windstorm around 12-13 Dec and a return to very cold wx before Christmas after some cold and snow early in the month. Literally an up and down month. :cool:0 -
Jaysus MT, your forecast looks positively Canadian!
I for one hope you score a bajillion points this month :eek: :pac: Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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nacho libre wrote: »a late bonus question, which station will have the most lying snow over the next five days:D
i'm going with Clones, too bad there is no way to verify this:pac:
Mine!!, though that's not allowed in the competition unfortunately Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Last month of using the 10 main stations for nationwide stats also. From January onwards, either Dublin Airport or Casement will be dropped due to their close proximity to each other while Johnstown Castle and Galway will be included as the SE is not represented well in the OIM. Thinking of bringing Omagh and Belfast in as well, but we'll see how that goes.
Just two quick questions, if Dublin Airport is dropped does this effect the sea area forecast coastal reports also?
is the December Forecast and analysis open to everyone or just regular posters on the fourm?
Cheers0 -
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Just two quick questions, if Dublin Airport is dropped does this effect the sea area forecast coastal reports also?
is the December Forecast and analysis open to everyone or just regular posters on the fourm?
Cheers
I'll see how that goes in January Bligh. My idea is just to get a more nationwide rounded figure for the mean as opposed to just the Valentia/Dublin line for the Overall Irish Mean. Although for a climatic overview, dropping Dublin Airport might prove to be a problem for me with regards this. But as I said, I'll work something out. 0 -
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Late forecast, was doing some shoppin till you drop up north over the weekend
What will be mean temperature in December?: 5.3C
What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?: 10.3C
What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?: -8.4C
What will be the highest temperature recorded at Clones on Christmas Day?: 2.5C
Which station will have the highest rainfall total for the month?: Valentia
Will there be measurable snow at Dublin airport (1mm of snowfall must be recorded as falling between 00:00 and 23:59 local time on Dec 25th 2008.) on Christmas day (more here) ?: Yes0 -
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Attempted twice to post up charts and stats for november 2008. Each time did not register when I posted. A complete waste of an hour. Will do them again when I cool down, because I am fit to ram my fist through the pc screen at the mo.:mad::mad::mad::mad::(
3rd attempt:
Overall mean temp for November:
Cooler than normal first half, slightly milder 2nd half, more do to the rise in the overall mean min for the 20th onwards. Mean max finished close to normal (+0.1c), while mean minima ended at above normal: (+1.1c). This allowed overall mean to finish at 7.7c, which is 0.6c above normal, Coolest in the east overall.
Overall Mean windspeed:
Overall mean windspeed finished at 9.6 knots, which is 0.6 knots below normal. Not a windy month all in all.
Overall Mean rainfall:
Other station totals:
Knock: 129.1 mm
Ballyhaise: 64.9 mm
Oak Park: 47.4 mm
Johnstown Castle: 68.2 mm
Near normal totals over western half of Ireland, below normal totals in the eastern half. 88 mm overall, which is 89% of the 61-90 expected
5 Station MSLP:
Below normal windspeed and rainfall totals for the month of November reflective in the above normal pressure values for most of the month. Finished at 1014.0 mb exactly, which is 2.6 mb's above normal.
2008 Jan/Nov overview:
So far, temp anomalies from the 61-90 mean are running at 0.53c above normal, quite a drop from the 1.11c for the same period last year (2007).
2008 is proving to be a wet year also, at 1163.6 mm, the 2008 Jan/Nov overall mean total is running above the 61-90 mean of 902 mm and higher than the 882mm for the same period in 2007.
Phew!.... that was a challenge..:cool: Time for a ciggy or two I think..:D
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Vodafone "broadband". It's ........:mad:
The contention must be shít. They where a nightmare to get going with vista initially ahhh. Good work on the stats. 0 -
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lostexpectation wrote: »is it colder this year then last so far?
Noticibly cooler, where have you been?
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Could I make a suggestion? I greatly appreciate the updates and thank you for going to all the trouble of looking up the data and keeping us in the picture. I wonder however would it be possible when you do look up the data would it be possible to give updates related to the particular months forecast competition questions so that for example this month tell us the highest and lowest recorded temperatures so far and the station that has the highest daily rainfall so far. I know you cannot answer questions about chrismas day yet obviously but a running commentary on the other ones would be of interest. Is that feasible? I must admit I don't know how difficult a job it would be and I don't want to add any additional burden on to anyone given how much time you already give to providing the excellent information and running the competition for us.
Hi Strasser,
Of course you are right, I should be including all extra info with regards the competition, but with time being very limited recently and likey to continue limited over the next few months, my enthusiasm if very much surpressed in the whole area. My interest in the competition is mostly in the climate stats, and all anwsers to the competition are available in the Met Eireann summary at the end of the month anyway.:)
Aside from this, I will be quite busy with everything over the next few months, and would appreciate anyone who would help me out with the gathering of daily stats for our nation. If anybody is willing to lend me a hand, please let me know.:o I can send you Excel templates that will automatically add up averages and so forth. This month I had to drop gathering wind data and rain data due to heavy college work. So please, if anybody is free and willing, please let me know, as I want to get the climate of Ireland known in more detail to everyone who reads this forum.
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I did mange to play a part with this before September, but then ...something came up...Deep Easterly wrote: »So please, if anybody is free and willing, please let me know, as I want to get the climate of Ireland known in more detail to everyone who reads this forum.
and I don't have the time or thought resource to get back into this at moment.
This does take time and I hope someone else can jump in and assist DE here with the gathering of the data, even if its just a copy and paste once day.0 -
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Up to midnight 27th:
Overall mean 5.6c (-0.3c)
Overall mean maxima bang on normal 0.0c (D.F.A) , whilst overall mean minima remaining below normal at -0.7c (D.F.A)
Despite a mild snap mid month, at no stage this month did the overall mean enter positive anomaly. Indeed, it remained below average for the entire month so far, and the first month of 2008 to achieve this; and with only 3 days left in the month, it is looking like December 2008 will finish slightly below normal by around 0.5c. A notable month for sure. 0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »so the mean could finish at 5.4c
Smug Fecker.
Valentia data still not updated at time of writing, but it is safe to presume that the final figure for December 2008 will indeed finish at 5.4c, which is 0.6c below normal (rounded). December was notable in that at no stage did the mean reach the 61-90 average. A mild spell mid month rose it a good deal, but was not strong enough to allow the mean to break into positive territory at any stage in the month.
Final overall mean max: 8.2c (-0.3c)
Final overall mean min: 2.5c (-0.8c)
Congrats to all who participated in the competition. Thanks to the mighty Supercell for making it a success, and well done to whoever won the thing outright. (now I wonder who that would be....
:D) 0
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