MAJOR surge in Fine Gael support - IT Poll tomorrow

E92

Well, that's not nearly as much as the dramatic drop for Fianna Fáil.
The cynic in me says that if there was an election in the morning, the plebs in the country would suddenly forget all about their anger towards FF and vote them in again though.

FG - 34%:)
FF - 27%, yes you read that correctly:eek::eek::eek:(I can't believe they're so low given that about 1/3rd of those who vote would vote for FF if they had murderers as the only candidates)
Lab - 14%
Commies(SF) - 8%
GP - 4%, I'm so happy to hear this, if only they could drop more:D:D
Ind - 13%

All in the Irish Times.

Time for me to do a bit of rejoicing:D!

BenjAii

As its very unlikely The Greens are going to walk, its all a bit academic though, we're years away from an election.

By which time FF will have time for whatever conjuring trick it is they do & they'll be back in some shape or form.

mike65

All this does is confirm the Red C poll.

Mike

E92

mike65 wrote: »

All this does is confirm the Red C poll.

Mike

But that's exactly the point.

I genuinely believed that the RedC one was a spur of the moment thing, people really cheesed off with the budget and all that.

Normally people get over it fairly quickly.

But this time is different.

There hasn't been anything nearly as bad as the budget since the RedC poll, and a lot of the hysteria has well died down at this stage, yet they're still so low and FG have still come up a lot.

I still believe that a lot of those dissatisfied with the Govt will come back and vote for them in an election, a proper one that is and not the mickey mouse locals/Euros where the opposition do well anyway.

If there was a GE FF would do WAY better than the 27% they're presently on, because a sizeable number of Irish people will vote for them no matter what happens.

Villain

The only thing is FF are gone so low the back benchers aren't going to risk jumping off the ship.

The other problem is we are only starting into a savage recession, wait until the public service start getting hit.

Time Magazine

2007 really was the election to lose.

Fine Gael's secret tactic of losing every election since the 80's finally pays off.

Agent Smith

The Economist wrote: »

2007 really was the election to lose.

Never was a Truer word spoken


Surely the question now is, when will the Greens jump ship?

djpbarry

E92 wrote: »

FG - 34%:)
FF - 27%, yes you read that correctly:eek::eek::eek:(I can't believe they're so low given that about 1/3rd of those who vote would vote for FF if they had murderers as the only candidates)
Lab - 14%
Commies(SF) - 8%
GP - 4%, I'm so happy to hear this, if only they could drop more:D:D
Ind - 13%

Meh...

Times are good - satisfaction with government goes up
Times are bad - satisfaction with government goes down

All utterly meaningless.

mike65

Its very exciting for the chattering classes, but unless something unexpected happens vis a vis Greens and assorted independents then its all smoke and daggers.

Mike

Nodin

E92 wrote: »

Time for me to do a bit of rejoicing:D!

As the Green support has dropped, its going to make them far more wary of attempting to jump ship. Thus your happy dance is somewhat premature.

eoinbn

27% FF + 13% Ind = the magic 40% FF!

On a serious note, 13% for independants, are people that stupid? The last thing this country needs is more FF independants that have to be bought after a general election. Ind are about spending money, we need to CUT spending.
It is time for an HONEST election, where parties say what they will cut and how they will raise tax. Once they are in they have the support of the people so screw the unions and start the slash and burn that is needed in public spending.

jhegarty

eoinbn wrote: »

27% FF + 13% Ind = the magic 40% FF!

On a serious note, 13% for independants, are people that stupid? The last thing this country needs is more FF independants that have to be bought after a general election. Ind are about spending money, we need to CUT spending.
It is time for an HONEST election, where parties say what they will cut and how they will raise tax. Once they are in they have the support of the people so screw the unions and start the slash and burn that is needed in public spending.

the 13% now includes what was the PDs

Permabear

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Boggle

They see government money as manna from heaven; they don't actually understand where it comes from.

On the contrary, we know where the money comes from: OUR POCKETS* - not the governments!!

They expect the government to keep the public finances in order—but they aren't willing to accept cutbacks in medical cards, dole, free third-level educations, farm subsidies, unionized wage agreements, and so on.

Cutbacks will be accepted no problem once intelligent and fair cutbacks are announced. So far all we have had is a disjointed cuts aimed at the weak and the poor while at the same time finding ample amounts for Parlon's boys.
Having read the above, do you still think people are unreasonable? I don't.

Unfortunately the cuts that will have to be made will be savage and unpopular amongst FF's traditional support base and so, as usual, they won't be made until its too late.

Permabear

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djpbarry

Boggle wrote: »

Cutbacks will be accepted no problem once intelligent and fair cutbacks are announced.

Such as?

Boggle wrote: »

So far all we have had is a disjointed cuts aimed at the weak and the poor...

Have we? Seems to me the cuts have been aimed at pretty much everyone, except maybe the über-wealthy.

seamus

Nodin wrote: »

As the Green support has dropped, its going to make them far more wary of attempting to jump ship. Thus your happy dance is somewhat premature.

I'm not sure. Gormley has said today (in not so many words) that people are pissed off with FF because FF lied to the public at the general elections.

The greens' support base has already been eroded. How much worse is it going to get if they stick with FF and it continues to go bad?

If the greens came out now and said that they too were mislead by FF when they joined the Government and that FF are no longer sticking to their coalition agreements, it gives them a good reason to drop out of government and may go some way to restoring their credibility in the eyes of their supporters.

The Greens tend to be followed by people who require high standards and transparency from their politicians. I imagine they will have more respect for a party who can admit when it's gone wrong than one who clings onto their power for dear life.

Permabear

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Nodin

seamus wrote: »

The Greens tend to be followed by people who require high standards and transparency from their politicians.

I'd find it hard to believe theres too many of them left then, given Gormless' performance over the last while.

edanto

donegalfella wrote: »

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You take some of their money!! Bollox to the trickle down theory.

Anyone see the show called "Running Mate" last year... predicted a FF-GP govt to take office, then a snap election called following a scandal - and the outcome of the election determined by independents... prescient!

Rainbow coalition would be looking good about now.

I'd be raging if I was a Green TD. Getting rid of the cervical cancer vaccine (cost several million), yet putting in place the Government Guaranteed Sub-Prime Immediate Negative Equity Scheme to help the builders (cost several billion). Absolute bullsh1t. No way to run a country.

Permabear

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Boggle

Well, can you outline some examples of "intelligent and fair" cutbacks?

Okay, here we go - although I have absolutely no idea of how much these savings would generate but from experience, most budgets I have dealt with can be cut by almost 30-50% with little or no reduction in service or quality but only if the guy doing the restructuring has a clue.

1. Cut or restructure the rent allowance for social and single mother housing away from defined contributions(so to speak). Currently, in Tipp, it is keeping rents artificially high in some areas at 850 per month when the real value is closer to 600-650pm. The govt provides something like 160pw and the occupier pays the last 40.
1a. Reevaluate the inventives provided to become and stay a single mother as I have yet to see one who is actually single. Also, most of them seem to have become dependent on HSE handouts - having more kids for bgger houses - declaring that their kids have ADHD for more money - no staying with the father for fear of losing their home...
2. Get rid of the new housing loan scheme.
3. Eliminate this social or affordable housing thing - A builder I'm involved with reckons there's no panic to drop his house prices as the regular flow of council housing (at inflated prices) provides plenty of cashflow. The real value is now far less than the affordable/social housing one.
4. Abolish PR budgets and all non-essential advertising
5. Slash political/ministerial wages to acceptable levels.
5a Wipe out their walking around allowance
6. Slash top end public and civil service wages to market rates
6a Evaluate the civil and public service to cut staffing levels where appropriate
6b Cut the nepotism out of the bloody thing to get a work environment into it to enhance productivity
6c Stop paying binmen in Cork 50k per annum for 26 hours a week
6d Reevaluate salaries across the board - a teacher after 3 years college gets 32kpa as a graduate but a guy with a masters in microelectroics will get 25-30kpa. A bit of reality please.
7. Quangos. Slash em.
8. Consultants. Fire them - they're idiots who get paid too much for too little and they couldn't see this coming.

Thats off the top of my head and just based on what I have seen. The minister of finance must know the details better than I and so should be able to slash about 20-30% off the budget in a manner that no-one would notice - barring those affected and, in most cases, they should be able to manage much along the same lines as a private sector individual.

Do not slash education budgets as a cheap engineering base (provided by our surplus of engineering) is the only competitive edge left.
Do not slash vaccinationsas it will cost more to treat these dying girls in 10 or 20 years (and the story of we'll just innoculate them next year at 13 is bollox - why didn't they start with 13 year old girls this year?)

nesf

djpbarry wrote: »

Meh...

Times are good - satisfaction with government goes up
Times are bad - satisfaction with government goes down

All utterly meaningless.

Exactly, it's how polls shape out over the next six to twelve months that will show whether this is just a knee jerk reaction to some very unpopular budget decisions or a major voter move from FF to FG in the medium term. Interesting also that Labour somehow managed to lose support in the poll, again you can't say anything from one poll but if this bears out over the next six months as being true then Labour have serious problems that they need to figure out.

CCCP^

Pity the next election is over 4 years away. Fine Gael have never been in power on their own and never will. This country has no real political opposition, Fine Gael would just make all the mistakes that FF make I believe. That and worse.

Supercell

All this in spite of having Enda in charge..one can only imagine what FG support levels would be like with a leader that had an ounce of charisma.

Still, I am encouraged, FF squandered the boom and led us to a very dark place.
I hope this is a turning point in Irish politics and less of the cute hoorism and Galway races cronyism is dealt a fatal blow.
Haughey may have passed but his presence still is felt in FF, time for a new guard to come in.

Permabear

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