Buying a house!! Will price go down?!!!

Karlrove

Thinking ofbuying a house. Its listed at 410k, Had alook...its woirth bout 375-380, Ive been told the prices will continue to go down,when do you think is a good time to buy...if anyone works in this sector it would be great to hear from you..and anyone else! Thanks

jhegarty

anyone working in the sector will be a vested interest and worst people in the world to ask....

MagicMarker

Well if it's worth 380 and currently at 410, then the right time to buy is probably when it goes down to 380. Unless you would like to pay 30k more?

towel401

the price will probably go down. I dont think anyone sees house prices going up any time soon

Silverfish

Not a PI.


Try the Accommodation and Property forum.

Karlrove

Thinking ofbuying a house. Its listed at 410k, Had alook...its woirth bout 375-380, Ive been told the prices will continue to go down,when do you think is a good time to buy...if anyone works in this sector it would be great to hear from you..and anyone else! Thanks

ntlbell

my usuall answer

when you find the right house in the right area and you can comofrtably afford it, it's the right time to buy

the_syco

Um, offer 320, and see how they react.

jetski

it probably will go down but eventually its going to go back up. so your issue really depends on how long you plann on staying in it.

kingofthecastle

in the same boat and ready to buy a house. the forecast for house prices is that they will continue to decrease. the constant increases in the unemployment live register should be used as a barometer. if unemployment continues to increase, i guarantee you that house prices will continue to decrease in value. However the banks will then most likely employ stricter lending criteria, so factor your ability to get approved for a mortagage into the equation. just becasue they approved you for one now does not mean that they will approve you for one in 6 months time. Mortgage approval usually lasts for 6 months.

my mortgage approval runs out in march. if they'll approve me for a further six months i'll hold on, if not, then i'll buy in march. i'll also be offering 10-15% less than the asking price

The_Conductor

Buying a house!! Will price go down?!!!

Most probably. But then again I don't have a crystal ball.

At the end of the day if the house is what you're looking for, in a location you are happy with, you can see yourself living in it longterm and you yourself consider the house affordable- go for it........ Every property has a different 'worth' to every person who views it- the monetary cost being just one aspect of the value attached to a particular property.

If you cannot see yourself living in the house longterm, irrespective of anything else, DO NOT BUY IT.........

spockety

Karlrove wrote: »

Thinking ofbuying a house. Its listed at 410k, Had alook...its woirth bout 375-380, Ive been told the prices will continue to go down,when do you think is a good time to buy...if anyone works in this sector it would be great to hear from you..and anyone else! Thanks

What are you basing your own valuation off?

In the current climate I'd be surprised if a house listed at 410 will sell for anywhere near 375-380, unless the asking price on other houses in the area is in the 500/600's and they've already knocked a substantial amount off it.

What area is it in, and how long has it been on the market?

Got a daft link?

ohnoigotsick

can depend on the seller too.

i'm selling in galway and have a price of 315 on the house as to attract interst (i could have put it at 340 and then dropped the price).

anyways, i have to buy again and will drop the price by 10 to 15 K max if needs be to sell it and no more cos then i have sol and estate agent to pay and no money to start again for new house etc etc so put in an offer and see where it goes

Karmaa

Well I have been trying to sell my house, we did drop the price and still no interest, nothing wrong with the house and I'm not just saying that because it's mine, its only 5 year old. My auctioneer advised us not to drop it again as the market is just fecked, nobody is buying, banks are not lending etc etc....
I had to for legal reasons drop its substantially again by 100k and it still hasn't brought a viewer to my door!!
So my thoughts on it would be, put in an offer any offer if you really want the house, as sellers are been advised not to drop their prices.

Fatloss08

problem is you could pay the €380k and in a year find its only worth €300k , and thats €80k u could have saved , or maybe somebody else would buy it instead of u

if its affordable and longterm living and u like it , buy it

El Stuntman

after the biggest property bubble in history, a lot of us are currently at Denial and many more are at Fear

http://leduc998.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/market-emotions-cycle1.jpg

buy when we hit Panic, your 410k target gaff will be available for 200k then

spockety

Karmaa wrote: »

Well I have been trying to sell my house, we did drop the price and still no interest, nothing wrong with the house and I'm not just saying that because it's mine, its only 5 year old. My auctioneer advised us not to drop it again as the market is just fecked, nobody is buying, banks are not lending etc etc....
I had to for legal reasons drop its substantially again by 100k and it still hasn't brought a viewer to my door!!
So my thoughts on it would be, put in an offer any offer if you really want the house, as sellers are been advised not to drop their prices.

The first sellers to get real will get their houses sold. Those who literally put out of their mind the period 2001-2007 and forget it ever happened, will sell their houses first. That period was the bubble period, and it made no logical sense whatsoever, and had no economic basis in reality. Think back to what the property was selling for back then, and that is more than likely where the market will end up back at. Some people will continue to buy while it's on the way down, everyone has their own reasons, and there is no definite way to predict the bottom. But as things are, prices that are being asked do not stack up well against the fundamentals of a healthy housing market.

Not all sellers are being advised to stick with their prices, here's a great example:

http://www.daft.ie/1394111

PropertyBeeToolbar wrote:

Fri 07 Nov 2008 23:21:20 IST
* Price changed: from 'Region €350,000' to 'Region €319,950'
Sun 02 Nov 2008 00:48:20 IST
* Price changed: from 'Region €349,950' to 'Region €350,000'
Fri 24 Oct 2008 16:09:47 GMT
* Price changed: from 'Region €370,000' to 'Region €349,950'
Wed 15 Oct 2008 15:15:09 GMT
* Price changed: from 'Region €384,950' to 'Region €370,000'
Thu 14 Aug 2008 22:34:24 GMT
* Price changed: from 'Region €409,950' to 'Region €384,950'

Was this house worth 410k on August 14th? Was it worth 349k on October 24th?

The answer is obviously no. Is it even worth 319k as of today? Well that's up to whoever buys it at that price, if anyone. Maybe when it hits 250k in a month we will be asking "was it worth 319k on November 7th? No!"

To the OP, have a look at that example, and look at the property you see on the market at 410k. Has it been on the market long? Has it dropped in price at all? What are other properties in the area going for? What could you expect to pay for that property before the hysterical bubble of 2001-2007? Would your repayments on a 25 or 30 year mortgage be under 35% of your monthly disposable income if you bought it for 375k?

jmayo

ohnoigotsick wrote: »

can depend on the seller too.

i'm selling in galway and have a price of 315 on the house as to attract interst (i could have put it at 340 and then dropped the price).

anyways, i have to buy again and will drop the price by 10 to 15 K max if needs be to sell it and no more cos then i have sol and estate agent to pay and no money to start again for new house etc etc so put in an offer and see where it goes

So you are willing to drop by another 10/15k if needs be ?
What if you still can't sell it ?
It doesn't matter what you want to get becuase you need money for x, y or z. The buyer, and the market, may only be willing to pay x amount and that is it whether you like it or not.

It is a buyers market, can sellers (and EAs, auctioneers) not get this concept.
The prices are dictated by buyers not by the seller, you will have to drop it to whatever the buyers are willing to pay in order to sell it.
Otherwise you are stuck with for the very forseeable future.

Karmaa wrote: »

Well I have been trying to sell my house, we did drop the price and still no interest, nothing wrong with the house and I'm not just saying that because it's mine, its only 5 year old. My auctioneer advised us not to drop it again as the market is just fecked, nobody is buying, banks are not lending etc etc....
I had to for legal reasons drop its substantially again by 100k and it still hasn't brought a viewer to my door!!
So my thoughts on it would be, put in an offer any offer if you really want the house, as sellers are been advised not to drop their prices.

I just love where EA or auctioneer tell sellers not to drop price any further.
Are they working on the premise that prices are going to go back to the great days of 2002-2006.
It is time to get real here, those great days for sellers & EAs are gone.
Welcome to reality.

Somebody mentioned to OP to buy it hosue if it is what you really want, you are not going to move anytime soon and you can afford it.
I would add to this...
normally people look for value for money in almost everything we buy.
Of course the last number of years of celtic tiger us paddies got carried away in la la land and value for money was not a criteria.
We refuse to pay way too much for cars, for holidays, for clothes, for food etc.

So why should we not look for value for money in the biggest purchase of our lives ????
This is the purchase that you will be paying for over 20-40 years of you life.
The money you save today may save you many multiples over the lifetime of your mortgage.
That money could be used for other things such as having a better life for your family and yourself.

ohnoigotsick

jmayo wrote: »

So you are willing to drop by another 10/15k if needs be ?
What if you still can't sell it ?
It doesn't matter what you want to get becuase you need money for x, y or z. The buyer, and the market, may only be willing to pay x amount and that is it whether you like it or not.

if i can't sell it i have to hold on to it, simple as that you can have two examples when selling a house

1 my situation, where i have a fine house and have invested time and money into it , to start over again and i need to sell it for X amount of money, anything less and it's pointless as i can't afford to pay stamp duty deposit etc cos i bought only a few years ago,

the second scenario is the house next door to me that was sold last year, previously a rented house the owner based in the USA put it on the market for 340K and sold for nearer 300K , now she bought the house a good few years ago and also was selling from america so the dollar was 1.50 to a euro , so if she sold for 40K less she was still getting a good deal cos of the currency conversion was in her favour.

so different sellers have different thresholds in which its a good deal for them to sell. so if someone has a house the bought 15 years ago on the market for 410 , they'll still make a profit selling in for 50K less than asking price were i can't do that

The_Conductor

It all depends. You said

i have to buy again

. If you have to buy again- you have to accept that the cost of doing so may be that you have to sell your current property at a loss, simple as. If on the other hand you do not *have* to buy again, but are in a position that you can hold your current property or continue to live in it yourself- thats a different story.

At the end of the day- it really doesn't matter what the house up the road sold for- or indeed what a property in the vicinity will sell for in 3 years time- if you want to sell now, or *have to*, its a case of what can your property achieve. If you are not in a position to sell at what the market can currently bear- you should exit the market. You should however remember that there is no guarantee that you are ever going to achieve what you hope to achieve. We all have to accept that in some situations its a case of cutting our losses and running.

The fact that you paid "X" 3 or 4 years ago and you can now only achieve "X"-50k is irrelevant.

It hurts.

ohnoigotsick

smccarrick wrote: »

It all depends. You said . If you have to buy again- you have to accept that the cost of doing so may be that you have to sell your current property at a loss, simple as. If on the other hand you do not *have* to buy again, but are in a position that you can hold your current property or continue to live in it yourself- thats a different story.

At the end of the day- it really doesn't matter what the house up the road sold for- or indeed what a property in the vicinity will sell for in 3 years time- if you want to sell now, or *have to*, its a case of what can your property achieve. If you are not in a position to sell at what the market can currently bear- you should exit the market. You should however remember that there is no guarantee that you are ever going to achieve what you hope to achieve. We all have to accept that in some situations its a case of cutting our losses and running.

The fact that you paid "X" 3 or 4 years ago and you can now only achieve "X"-50k is irrelevant.

It hurts.

i don't think it hurts, i had to live somewhere so i bought a house, i want to move and if i got 50K above my asking price , i would have ended up paying the same amount or more over the odds elsewhere. now i'll get my asking price or X% under it and i will buy elsewhere in the same conditions

if i had bought investment propertys then yeah it would hurt,

I want to move from galway to dublin, or as near as so thats i why need/want to buy, in order to buy i have to sell - it's not as if i am going demented living here so if i don't sell the house now i don't sell the house now but i still hvae my house.

I think we are getting side tracked from the OP when he wanted to know how much to offer on a house. He can go in and offer 50 K less than the asking price and the seller maybe in a postion to accept that - like my next door neighbour or he could offer me 50K less than my asking price and i would refuse.

so OP put in an offer what you think it's worth and you'll get one of two answers which won't cost you anything

spockety

I really think it's impossible to answer the OP's question without knowing more detail.

What kind of house is it, what kind of area is it in, has it been on the market long, etc?

If it's asking 410k and it's a 6 bed mansion in Foxrock then obviously the seller can hope to achieve 410k! However, if it's a 2 bed ex-corpo house in finglas then you would say that even an offer of 370k on the buyer's part would be ludicrous.

So, OP, can you give us any more details?

Karlrove

Its a 3 bed in a nice enough area in north dublin...1180 sq feet...sitting room,dining,kitchen,upstairs bathroom,ok back garden and front

The_Conductor

Karlrove wrote: »

Its a 3 bed in a nice enough area in north dublin...1180 sq feet...sitting room,dining,kitchen,upstairs bathroom,ok back garden and front

Like to further define "North Dublin"?

spockety

Karlrove wrote: »

Its a 3 bed in a nice enough area in north dublin...1180 sq feet...sitting room,dining,kitchen,upstairs bathroom,ok back garden and front

Hmm, still probably not enough to go on there.. but I presume you are talking about somewhere like Swords/Balbriggan/Lusk??

Are there other houses for sale in the immediate vicinity (same estate), and how much are they going for?

If you install the Property Bee toolbar for Firefox, and you look at the ad on daft, it will tell you how long it has been on the market and if there have been any price drops in that time.

Magic Pips

Karlrove wrote: »

Its a 3 bed in a nice enough area in north dublin...1180 sq feet...sitting room,dining,kitchen,upstairs bathroom,ok back garden and front

I'll sell you a 3 bed 99 sq meters in north dublin (Balgriffin!) for 375!

El Stuntman

Magic Pips wrote: »

I'll sell you a 3 bed 99 sq meters in north dublin (Balgriffin!) for 375!

ten times average industrial wage for a shoebox in North Darndale

bargaintastic!

astrofool

When did 99sqm become a shoebox?

Most houses in Ireland, especially 3 beds, are between 80 and 90sqm in well established estates (built in the 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's).

Magic Pips

El Stuntman wrote: »

ten times average industrial wage for a shoebox in North Darndale

bargaintastic!

Haha... a snip though for a place full of character in for south Malahide!:cool:

El Stuntman

Magic Pips wrote: »

Haha... a snip though for a place full of character in for south Malahide!:cool:

oh well...when you put it like that...sold!

I see you're in Johannesburg, what would 375k get you there in a nice suburb (Sandton maybe)?

DJDC

I want to move from galway to dublin, or as near as so thats i why need/want to buy, in order to buy i have to sell - it's not as if i am going demented living here so if i don't sell the house now i don't sell the house now but i still hvae my house.

I think we are getting side tracked from the OP when he wanted to know how much to offer on a house. He can go in and offer 50 K less than the asking price and the seller maybe in a postion to accept that - like my next door neighbour or he could offer me 50K less than my asking price and i would refuse.

so OP put in an offer what you think it's worth and you'll get one of two answers which won't cost you anything

Maybe this might make you slightly more demented. You are going to spend 10s of thousands on a mortgage on a house over the next 3-5 years that you dont even want, in a location that you dont even want to live in.Prices arent going to rise in real terms in that time period, theres a 80% probability of that.You are basically holding a depreciating asset that is accelerating in devaluation.Unlucky!

kinetic

Dont touch it at anything near that price!

Anyone selling between now and spring is stuck and has to sell.Offer low threes for it and maybe its value at that, but not necessarily so as things seem to be going from bad to worse.

ohnoigotsick

DJDC wrote: »

Maybe this might make you slightly more demented. You are going to spend 10s of thousands on a mortgage on a house over the next 3-5 years that you dont even want, in a location that you dont even want to live in.Prices arent going to rise in real terms in that time period, theres a 80% probability of that.You are basically holding a depreciating asset that is accelerating in devaluation.Unlucky!

or i can live my life instead of looking at it as a balance sheet

Firetrap

You can live your life whatever way you want. For most people, buying a house is the biggest purchase they'll ever make and the biggest ongoing expense in their lives. It's very hard not to think about balance sheets when there's a sizeable chunk of your salary going out of your bank account every month.

Climate Expert

ohnoigotsick wrote: »

or i can live my life instead of looking at it as a balance sheet

So why don't you just spend all your money now on having fun, forget the financial implications.

I can't stand the attitude that personal finances are there to be ignored.

Tom123

If you pay 380k for a place advertised at 410k it going to fall significantly in value over the next 5 years.

ohnoigotsick

Climate Expert wrote: »

So why don't you just spend all your money now on having fun, forget the financial implications.

I can't stand the attitude that personal finances are there to be ignored.

i don't ignore my personal finances and go out on the lash and waste my money away but i am of the attitude that i have to live somewhere and have to live my life instead of waiting and waiting for a price to come down and pay rent which goes to pay someone elses mortgage.

if i sell my house anytime soon , i won't be in a rush to buy the next house, but i won't wait around forever to buy it either

Theboinkmaster

ohnoigotsick wrote: »

i don't ignore my personal finances and go out on the lash and waste my money away but i am of the attitude that i have to live somewhere and have to live my life instead of waiting and waiting for a price to come down and pay rent which goes to pay someone elses mortgage.

if i sell my house anytime soon , i won't be in a rush to buy the next house, but i won't wait around forever to buy it either

"and pay rent which goes to pay someone elses mortgage" that old chestnut eh

why don't you do some research here and on the propertypin.com as you are just so wrong

SkepticOne

I think there's still significant downside risk in the current market based on the vast build up of inventory despite few properties coming onto the market per month. We are still in the denial phase - a sort of Mexican stand-off - and this could go on for years with a backlog of both buyers and sellers building up.

So far my guess is that most people who got into the market late with investment properties are still trying to hold on to them in the hope that the market picks up. We need to see the end of this phase before we can see the market picking up but there's no telling how long it will take. The lowering of interest rates recently may have the effect of dragging out the length of time we will have to wait.

Firetrap

Better to pay someone else's mortgage for a year or two than to lose tens of thousands of your own money IMHO.

Tom123

Firetrap wrote: »

Better to pay someone else's mortgage for a year or two than to lose tens of thousands of your own money IMHO.

Especially since the interest you will be paying to the bank will be more than the rent you would be paying.

Magic Pips

El Stuntman wrote: »

oh well...when you put it like that...sold!

I see you're in Johannesburg, what would 375k get you there in a nice suburb (Sandton maybe)?

Haha, yea could get a well nice place - 10 foot walls, electric fence, electric gates... ya know all the 'frills'! Problem over here is their interest rate is up around 14%! If i were to buy here it'd be cash all the way! Maybe a nice lil place in Blairgowrie or so!

Anyways... OT... OP - go in with an offer of 365 for the place, see what the owner comes back with, in this market if somebody is looking to sell - chances are they need the money!
good luck!

SimpleSam06

SkepticOne wrote: »

We are still in the denial phase - a sort of Mexican stand-off

A Mexican stand-off implies that both sides have just as much at stake. This is not the case, most buyers can happily wait for the next decade without too much trouble.

This would be more like a ghost town after the gold rush in the old west. Nobody really cares anymore.

ntlbell

ohnoigotsick wrote: »

i don't ignore my personal finances and go out on the lash and waste my money away but i am of the attitude that i have to live somewhere and have to live my life instead of waiting and waiting for a price to come down and pay rent which goes to pay someone elses mortgage.

Ever buy new clothes?

You were paying someones mortgage.

Ever eat in a restraunt?

You were paying someones mortgage

Own a mobile phone?

your paying someone's mortgage.

Just about every single time money comes out of your pocket into someone else's your paying someone else's mortgage.

What you get in return for the money is a service/product

the clothes/the phone etc

The service in this case renting is a lot cheaper than the service a bank is offering you by lending you money to buy a home and charging you roughly the same price of the home or more on interest.

If the rent is cheaper than the interest the bank charges on the mortgage

where do you think the 'dead' money's going?

probably paying someone else's mortgage

ohnoigotsick

ntlbell wrote: »

Ever buy new clothes?

You were paying someones mortgage.

Ever eat in a restraunt?

You were paying someones mortgage

Own a mobile phone?

your paying someone's mortgage.

Just about every single time money comes out of your pocket into someone else's your paying someone else's mortgage.

What you get in return for the money is a service/product

the clothes/the phone etc

The service in this case renting is a lot cheaper than the service a bank is offering you by lending you money to buy a home and charging you roughly the same price of the home or more on interest.

If the rent is cheaper than the interest the bank charges on the mortgage

where do you think the 'dead' money's going?

probably paying someone else's mortgage

i appreciate that when i buy clothes etc, i pay for the service and the goods etc , and that goes towards a salary which may or may not pay a mortgage.

so after 20/30 years of renting what have you got to show for it ?

thats my opinion that rent money is dead money and that you have to live somewhere and yes the first few years of the mortgage are 95% interest payments alone

The_Conductor

ohnoigotsick wrote: »

so after 20/30 years of renting what have you got to show for it ?

The satisfaction of having had a much higher standard of living than you might otherwise have been able to afford- living in a bigger, better house than you can afford, with more disposable income to spend as you choose. While I accept that at the end of the day if you purchase you have the asset- you do pay through the nose for it, in comparison with renting, and as the expression goes- "there are no pockets in a shroud". Ultimately the two universal constants come into play, death and taxes. You can enjoy life to the full- or you can risk the taxman taking a bite out of your hard won assets.

When asset prices were rocketing- it was a no-brainer. Not anymore........

ntlbell

ohnoigotsick wrote: »

i appreciate that when i buy clothes etc, i pay for the service and the goods etc , and that goes towards a salary which may or may not pay a mortgage.

so after 20/30 years of renting what have you got to show for it ?

thats my opinion that rent money is dead money and that you have to live somewhere and yes the first few years of the mortgage are 95% interest payments alone

It's only dead money if the rent is more expensive than the interest on the mortgage

Renting is not always the right option, but it's not always the wrong option, it's not _always_ dead money.

But _always_ assuming rent is dead money is _always_ the wrong option.

ohnoigotsick

ntlbell wrote: »

It's only dead money if the rent is more expensive than the interest on the mortgage

Renting is not always the right option, but it's not always the wrong option, it's not _always_ dead money.

But _always_ assuming rent is dead money is _always_ the wrong option.

i'll agree with you that is not always right to assume it's dead money.

i'm calling it dead money in comparission to rent V Mortgage etc

gurramok

ohnoigotsick wrote: »

so after 20/30 years of renting what have you got to show for it ?

Save the difference in money and then buy when prices return to normal.

ohnoigotsick wrote: »

thats my opinion that rent money is dead money and that you have to live somewhere and yes the first few years of the mortgage are 95% interest payments alone

Ah yes. The brigade of paying for a house in Portarlington and commuting the rest of your life to Dublin as one cannot afford to buy in the capital.
Of course, this dead money has nothing to do with cheaper rent in Dublin resulting in a better standard of living than it would be to buy.

spockety

Renting is a very valuable service, and it suits a lot of people for a multitude of reasons. However, I'm not sure it makes long term sense.

In the rent vs buy debate, the pro-rent debaters point out issues of the monthly cost of renting vs buying the same property. However they do not take into account the fact that the initial monthly cost of a mortgage will in most cases remain fairly static over the 25 years of the mortgage. In the case of a renter, the rent will/should rise in line with inflation etc. After 25 years, there is no way that the monthly rent will be anywhere near as low as the monthly mortgage payment on a 25 year old mortgage.

After 25 years of mortgage payments, you then stop paying, and you own the asset outright. This usually coincides with retirement, which means your monthly pension income will go further than if you had to continue monthly payments on your home.

Pro-rent arguers will also point out that if you lose your job or your income for whatever reason, and you have a mortgage, you are pretty screwed because there is a huge risk of bank foreclosure on your home. However they don't say what happens if your loss of job/income means you can no longer pay your landlord his rent...

A healthy rental market is invaluable, and there are loads of reasons to use it. I guess the question has to be asked is is there really a "rent vs. buy" debate at all that covers all the bases? No. "Rent vs. Buy" should be evaluated based on an individual's specific circumstances and requirements.

ohnoigotsick

gurramok wrote: »

Ah yes. The brigade of paying for a house in Portarlington and commuting the rest of your life to Dublin as one cannot afford to buy in the capital.
Of course, this dead money has nothing to do with cheaper rent in Dublin resulting in a better standard of living than it would be to buy.

i'm not of that brigade thankfully, i live in a city and it's not the be all and end all.

think i'll drive home for my lunch now !